Download John Sweeney - INTACT project

Climate Change: Anticipating and
Coping with the Coming Extremes
Delft, 23rd March 2017
John Sweeney, Emeritus Professor
Victoria Falls
June 2015
Kariba Dam
Victoria Falls
September 2015
Victoria Falls
November 2016
Consequences of Extreme Event causing Critical Infrastructure Failure
Addressing the Extreme Event/Critical
Infrastructure Relationship
• The failure of traditional analytical techniques as climate
changes
• Uncertainty in modelling future extremes
• Overcoming data quality issues
• Scoping sectoral vulnerabilities
• Achieving societal ‘buy-in’
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5-yearly average temperature differences relative to 1951–1980 from
1880-2016
The year 2016 ranks as Earth’s warmest since at least 1880. This is the 3rd year in a row this record has been
broken. 16 of the 17 warmest years in the instrumental record have now occurred since 2000.
If you’re younger than 30, you’ve never experienced a month in which the average surface temperature of
the Earth was below the average of the entire 20th Century.
The planet’s average surface temperature has risen by 1.1 degree
Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by
increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into
the atmosphere.
Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 16 of the
17 warmest years on record occurring since 2000.
Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12
months that make up the year – from January through September,
with the exception of June – were the warmest on record for those
respective months.
October, November, and December of 2016 were the second
warmest of those months on record – in all three cases, behind
records set in 2015.
1. Traditional Analysis based on the Normal
Distribution are flawed
1. Weather and climate data distributed over time are no longer capable of
satisfying assumptions of stationarity
2. Weather and climate data are frequently not normally distributed
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Weather and Climate Extremes Prediction depend on
the distribution of the variable concerned
Huyberts et al (2014)
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Which Distribution is appropriate to work with?
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Modest changes in the Mean is associated
with major changes in Extremes
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2. Model uncertainty sends a ‘fuzzy’ signal to
decision makers
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Uncertainty in spatial scenarios remains
problematical
ECHAM5
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HadCM3
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ECHAM5
Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction
• Precautionary Principle
• Intergenerational Equity
• For climate-change related aspects: the Polluter Pays Principle
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3. Overcoming Data Quality Issues
Raw Rainfall Series
Homogenised Rainfall Series
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4. Scoping Sectoral Vulnerabilities
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between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models
for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario
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Flood Infrastructure: Coping with Extreme Rainfall
“Return Period” > 300 years?
December rainfall totals (mm) for the full period of record for the Island of Ireland composite series
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Winter 2015/16
Highest Daily Flow Recorded on the River Moy – December 2015
Flooding along the banks of the Shannon River near Athlone Town.
Photograph: Brenda Fitzsimons / THE IRISH TIMES
Cork
November 2009
(Courtesy: Irish Examiner)
The Atmospheric River of Storm Desmond 5th December 2015
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Winter 2013/14
Storm Rachel at 00h on 15/1/2015
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Highest Gust Highest 10(kts)
min
windspeed
(kts)
Malin Head
‘Darwin’ 12/2/14
‘Rachel’ 15/1/15
58
70
47
52
Belmullet
‘Darwin’ 12/2/14
‘Rachel’ 15/1/15
55
66
41
47
Mace Head
‘Darwin’ 12/2/14
‘Rachel’ 15/1/15
84
68
65
46
Shannon Airport
‘Darwin’ 12/2/14
‘Rachel’ 15/1/15
86
51
61
34
Dublin Casement
‘Darwin’ 12/2/14
‘Rachel’ 15/1/15
65
48
46
30
>48=Storm Force 10
>64 Hurricane Force 12
Storm Darwin 12/2/2014:
Highest maximum wave height recorded in Irish coastal waters 25m.
Offshore wind gust 178 kph (96kts)
The Atlantic Coast after Hurricane Sandy 2012
A super moon is a new/full moon which occurs
with the moon at or near its closest approach
to Earth. January 1, 2014 was the first of two
super moons to occur in a single calendar
month. The second came on January 30, 2014.
The January 1 and 30 extra-close new moons
accentuated the spring tide, giving rise to
what’s called a perigean spring tide.
Septic tanks
(0.5M)
Rising winter water tables as a result of climate
change will act as a catalyst for the implementation of
adaptation strategies. Planning guidelines will require
to apply much stricter conditions to housing in rural
areas where increased vulnerability of groundwater to
septic tank effluent will exist.
Legend
Residential Address
0 - 0.5 Metres
0.5 - 1 Metres
1 - 2 Metres
2 - 3 Metres
3 - 4 Metres
4 - 6 Metres
Coastal Flooding Exposure
Legend
Commercial Address
0 - 0.5 Metres
0.5 - 1 Metres
1 - 2 Metres
2 - 3 Metres
3 - 4 Metres
4 - 6 Metres
Cost of November 2009 flooding by claim type
Claim Type
No of Claims
Cost of Claims
Household
4629
€76.8m
Commercial property
1541
€158.9m
Motor
2344
€8.2m
Total
8514
€243.9m
(Adapted from IIF, 2010).
Sea Level Rise Scenarios* (not including storm surge)
0.5 m
1m
2m
3m
4m
6m
Provinces/Counties
Leinster
€ (Millions) for All Claims
Louth
48
90
125
172
221
331
Meath
6
13
23
31
39
49
Dublin
170
339
513
678
898
1343
Wicklow
19
26
33
45
58
90
Wexford
13
25
40
62
83
131
21
42
74
109
149
231
Cork
321
432
525
608
692
865
Kerry
13
21
34
51
76
166
Limerick
58
86
112
129
150
210
Clare
10
21
39
73
133
255
14
37
63
98
138
265
Mayo
6
12
15
19
23
41
Sligo
5
13
20
28
35
56
Leitrim
0
0
0
0
0
1
21
42
57
79
97
154
725
1,199
1,673
2,182
2,792
4,188
Munster
Waterford
Connaught
Galway
Ulster
Donegal
Total Insurance Cost €000
* Assuming no defences exist
Health Infrastructure: Coping with Temperature Extremes
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Health Infrastructure: Coping with Temperature Extremes
• A substantial increase in the frequency of fatal heatwaves
in mid latitude cities is now expected.
• New cities, previously relatively unaffected, are expected
to become vulnerable to heatwave mortality especially
affecting its poorer communities without access and the
financial resources to run air conditioning systems
• Some Populations are particularly vulnerable
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35,000 deaths in 11 days
70,000 deaths in Europe
European heat-wave 2003 - >70,000 died
Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003
Analysis shows it likely that most of the
risk of the event is due to increase in
greenhouse gases - also
- by 2050, likely to be average event
- by 2100, likely to be a cool event
extremely
rare
event
(Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336,
Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614)
Occasional episodes of increased mortality during hot weather can be
expected to increase in Ireland as temperatures increase
Maximum temperatures (Kilkenny) and total mortality in Ireland on the hottest day in recent decades (13th July 1983)
Total mortality per
100,000
Maximum
temperature
divided by 10
3.2
3.0
Mortality per 100,000
2.8
2.6
2.4
115 Excess Deaths in Ireland
(mostly in rural areas)
2.2
2.0
1.8
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Day
(Source: E. Cullen)
Temperature/Mortality in Ireland
Value mean mortality at 2 degree intervals
140
People over 65 are 7 times more likely to be hospitalised as a result of
cold than people in the 18-45 age group
130
Those in poorer areas are 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalised as a
result of cold than people in wealthier areas.
Ireland currently has 1,500- 2,800 excess deaths during each winter.
87% of these occur in the >65 year age group.
120
50% of excess winter mortality occurs from cardiac causes, and these
deaths happen more frequently on cold days
110
Twice as many excess deaths occur from respiratory disease in winter
than in summer
100
90
80
70
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
mean temperature
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
24
Source: E. Cullen
Source: E. Cullen
Bogs
Machair
Threatened Landscapes of Ireland
Salt Marsh
Montane habitats
Some vulnerable species in Ireland
Curlew
Salmon
Water beetle
Kerry slug
Irish
damselfly
Cowberry
Buzzard
Arctic Char
Budapest slug
Gunnera tinctoria (Giant rhubarb)
Predicted areas of climatic
suitability
++
++
+++++
++++
+
++++ +
+
Gunnera on Achill
Source: National Botanic Gardens
Imminent Arrivals e.g. Horse Chestnut Leaf Miner
Cameraria Ohridella
› Premature defoliation
› In severe cases leaves start
falling in July.
› The larvae of the last
generation hibernate in the
leaves
› Eradication success rate 2%
Distribution in Europe
Rapid Spread across England and Wales in 8 Years
2005
2008
2006
2009
2007
2010
Horse Chestnut Leaf Miner arrived in
Ireland in 2014
5. Achieving Societal ‘buy in’
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Traditional and Current Approaches to Adaptation to Climate
Change Hazard
Traditional
Current
Traditional and Current Approaches to Adaptation to Climate
Change Hazard
Equipping water supply infrastructure to cope with
future extreme events
•Identification of future vulnerability at sub catchment level
•Ability to test “What if” policy options
•Capability to receive new inputs as uncertainty in socio
economic, hydrological or climate models change
Budget for 2oC target:
CO2 emissions until 2014
Remaining emissions
790 Billion tC
545 Billion tC
------------------245 Billion tC
CO2 emissions in 2014
11 Billion tC
There are approximately 2 decades left to
achieve the large scale decarbonisation
necessary to avoid dangerous climate change
80% of known fossil fuels will need to stay in the ground
for the world to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’.
Acting on the Severe Weather/Climate Change – Critical Infrastructure
relationship requires a political willingness to stand up to powerful vested
interests
• EU Commission proposals are being diluted by forces at
national level operating through the Council of Ministers and
European Parliament
• “Flexibilities” in the 2030 Effort Sharing Regulations have
eliminated or reduced drastically the need for some countries
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the period 20202030
• The long standing National Emissions Ceiling Directive has
now been revised to not include Methane.
“The science doesn’t matter. The ethics don’t matter. All that matters is my
national self interest.”
(In conversation with a Delegate at COP21)
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