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States under Siege Pervez Hoodbhoy V iolent religious extremists are challenging the authority and legitimacy of several Muslim states. In some countries, the state‘s writ has weakened. In others — such as Somalia, Afghanistan, and Yemen — it barely exists. A vast swathe of humanity stands at the edge of perilous chaos. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is under daily attack by Islamic groups armed with bombs and suicide jackets. About 14 percent of its territory is controlled by the Pakistani Taliban and other groups, and over 50,000 Pakistanis have been killed in this conflict over the last decade. This nuclear-armed country, with the world’s seventh largest army, endlessly debates whether to negotiate with terrorists or retaliate. But it ends up doing nothing. The fundamental dispute is whether Pakistan was created in 1947 to be a Muslim majority state or, instead, an Islamic state to be run by Islamic law — the sharia. Lost in thick ideological fog, the state lacks strong arguments that could rouse its soldiers and citizens to fight Taliban terrorism. The core question — one that may never be asked publically — is who are truer Muslims? Bearded militants who seek to destroy the state and its citizens, or equally bearded soldiers who die while seeking to protect their state? Only a razor’s edge separates the thinking of Pakistani soldiers from the men they must fight. Radical Islamists, marginalized in earlier decades, have also recently come into the political mainstream in Egypt, Libya, Iraq, and other Muslim countries. An interesting question is whether democracy can moderate their Islamist zeal. In Pakistan’s case, it has not. The Jamaat-e-Islami, which participated in the 2013 national elections, may now appear less extreme. But this is only because rival organizations are so much more extreme. In fact, the Jamaat’s ideological stance has not softened. It still stridently calls for jihad in Kashmir and against India, refuses to condemn Taliban attacks upon civilians and soldiers, protects al-Qaeda members, insists that Pakistan must be governed by sharia law, and remains resolutely opposed to birth control. Nevertheless, as the case of Egypt shows, one must be cautious in drawing general conclusions from a specific case. Shortly after the Arab Spring took off, many predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood, now populist vote seekers, would move away from their violent past. Indeed, drawing severe criticism from al-Qaeda, the pragmatic Brothers dropped the call of their revered philosopher, Sayyid Qutb, for armed jihad and the revival of the caliphate. But the Brotherhood could not compromise beyond a point and were bloodily removed by an Egyptian military coup in 2013. Religious and personal freedom, women’s rights, and religious pluralism remain anathema to its core beliefs. A restored Mohamed Morsi would probably trample on these no less than before. Nevertheless, the excessive use of Brussels Forum 2014 23 force by the Egyptian military was, in my opinion, unwarranted. Glancing at Algeria 20 years ago — where 200,000 lives were lost in a brutal civil war — one can see truly terrifying possibilities for Egypt as Islamists retaliate. The weakening of the Muslim nation-state across the world, and multiple civil wars, owes to the sudden rise of political Islam. In much of the 20th century, Muslims had understood their religion largely as a normative system whose role was to govern an individual’s personal life and act as a moral compass. In contrast, “political Islam” insists that Muslims can live out their faiths only in an Islamic state. This could take the form of a national state, sultanate, kingdom, or caliphate. Political Islam’s ultimate goal is to weld all Muslims together under the rubric of a supra-national Islamic theocratic state, the caliphate. In principle, the caliphate is a Sunni Islamic state without national borders, ruled by a male caliph who would command the allegiance of the entire ummah. As head of state, the caliph would govern as prescribed by the sharia, and would command allegiance from all living Muslims as their supreme religious and political authority. Unity of the ummah has been an elusive ideal from the very beginnings of Islam. The death of the Prophet Mohammed created an enduring schism on the question of who would be the next leader of the faithful. Although Muslim empires in the Middle East and Southwest Asia had been called caliphates, they were never accepted by all Muslims, and at times rival caliphs have existed contemporaneously. After Turkey’s Kemal Ataturk abolished the caliphate in the 1920s, few Muslim countries wanted it restored. In modern times, the caliphate is a non-starter. How 1.6 billion Muslims could agree on a leader — or even to electoral rules — boggles the mind. What mechanism could judge a candidate’s piety? Even the election of a pious shura or council would run against multiple definitions of faith. The illusion of an Islamic political utopia must be shed. But until that happens, it seems likely that Muslim societies will continue their destructive, fratricidal conflict. Pervez Hoodbhoy, is a Pakistani nuclear physicist, essayist and defence analyst. 24 Brussels Forum 2014