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Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation 1 ABOUT IHCAP The Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) is a project under the Global Programme Climate Change and Environment (GPCCE) of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), and is being implemented in partnership with the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India. IHCAP is supporting the implementation of the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) as a knowledge and technical partner. The overall goal of IHCAP is to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities in the Himalayas and to enhance and connect the knowledge and capacities of research institutions, communities and decision-makers. Published by IHCAP Copyright © IHCAP 2017. All Rights Reserved. Published in India This publication or parts of it may not be reproduced, stored by means of any system or transmitted, in any form or by any medium, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopied, recorded or of any other type, without the prior permission of IHCAP. This report is available in the electronic form at: http://www.ihcap.in/resources.html Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Acknowledgements Center for Urban Green Spaces (CUGS) is thankful for the support provided by the Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme, a project of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, New Delhi that made this work possible. A discussion paper was prepared by Center for Urban Green Spaces, New Delhi. The same was discussed in detail at an Expert Consultation conducted on the sidelines of the 2nd biennial International Congress on Green Urban Futures 2014 (urbanfutures2014) in Bangalore (3-7 November 2014). The expert consultation involved representatives not only from the various Himalayan states of India and Nepal but also from independent agencies and academia. We are grateful to all the eminent experts who took time off their busy schedule to participate in the consultations and give useful insights into complexities of the Himalayan ecosystem and urbanization challenges that the region is confronted with. The document at hand is an outcome of Expert Consultation in Bangalore and informal consultations with various experts from different walks of life. Special gratitude mention for Dr. Prodipto Ghosh, Distinguished Fellow, TERI and former Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change for supporting and encouraging us through this exercise. Last but not the least, sincere thanks to Dr. Sudhir Krishna for not only anchoring and leading the Expert Consultation in Bangalore but also for reviewing various drafts of the document at hand on multiple occasions and providing various and very valuable suggestions. Contents Chapter 1 2 3 4 5 Particulars Page No. Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 7 The Himalayas 11 An Overview Urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region Trends and Characteristics 19 Climate Change & Indian Himalayan Region 25 Climate Change Adaptation&Disaster Risk Reduction in Himalayan Region 33 An Urbanising Indian Himalayan Region Administrative and Governance Challenges 40 Way forward 45 References 50 Appendix 54 Case Study - 1 56 Extent and Dimensions Governance and Institutional Framework Nainital, Uttrakhand Executive Summary C overing a total area of about 230,000 square miles (595,000 square km) and literally meaning the “abode of snow,” the Himalayas epitomize earth’s grandeur. Characterized by extreme altitude, complex geology and rich vegetation, this majestic landscape has inspired awe and reverence. The Himalayas are just 45 million years (Myr) old, and as if to reflect their age, Himalayas are still rising and tectonically more active than most mountain ranges. They extend over 2,500 Km from Nanga Parbat (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) in the west to Namcha Barwa (Tibet) in the east even as their width (south to north) varies between 200-400 km bordered to the north-west by the mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush, Himalayas are the largest deposit of snow and ice after Arctic and Antartic regions and are often referred to as the Third Pole, or the Water Tower of Asia. More than 1.3 billion people live in the basins of ten great rivers of the world that find their origins in the Himalayas. climate change resulting from anthropogenic emissions and developmental paradigms of the modern society. The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) straddles ten states of India collectively referred to as Indian Himalayan States (IHS) and two countries namely Nepal and Bhutan. The Indian states are Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and hill districts of Assam (Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong) and West Bengal (Darjeeling). The total population of the Indian Himalayan States (IHS) is estimated to be 46.79 million. Taking into account Bhutan and Nepal, this figure swells to 73.99 million. Though IHS account for around 4% of India’s total population, they occupy 16.2% of India’s geographical area. The average population density across the Indian Himalayan States is nearly one-third of the country’s density. However if only altitudinal range where humans can normally live were to be considered, the density is much higher. The region’s climatic zones contain a rich diversity of species and ecosystems that exist along a pronounced humidity gradient. Among the 34 biodiversity hotspots of the world, four are located in the Himalayas. This makes Himalayas vital to the ecological and economic security of the Indian landmass through providing forest cover, feeding perennial rivers that are the source of drinking water, irrigation and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich base for high value agriculture and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Yet, the region is extremely fragile and threatened. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable and susceptible to the impacts and consequences of changes on account of natural causes, With the exception of Jammu & Kashmir and Manipur, the Indian Himalayan States have per capita state GDP values either close to the national average (e.g. Meghalaya), or higher than the national average. The average percentage of population below poverty line in the IHS is significantly lower than all India average. The pace of India’s urbanisation has been slow by international standards. India’s share of urban population in 2011 was 31 per cent, compared to around 50 per cent in China, Indonesia and Nigeria, In the past 60 years, India’s urban population share rose 7 from 17 per cent to 31 per cent, while China’s quadrupled from 12 per cent to 49 per cent. Nevertheless, the number of people involved is large: In the 20 years from 1991 to 2011, India’s urban population rose to 377 million - 160 million more than in 1991 and 90 million more than in 2001. By 2031 the urban population is projected to reach 600 million i.e. around 40 per cent of the national population. A significant extent of urbanisation in the IHR can be attributed to the tourism sector that is the main stay of the economy of hill states. Tourist arrivals, as a percentage of resident population is as high as 300% in Uttarakhand, 185% in Himachal Pradesh, 118% in Sikkim and 80% in the J&K. The main pressure of tourism influx in borne by cities and towns. It is to be noted that due to climatic reasons number of tourists is not spread across the year but largely concentrated in “season” months of April-July and October-November. Large number and skewed temporal distribution of tourist arrivals in Himalayan hill stations and pilgrimage centers has its own impact on economic and urban development patterns as well as natural resource management in hill areas. As a result, the cities of the Himalayas are witnessing the same rot as Indian cities in the plains, from mountains of trash, untreated sewage, chronic water shortages, unplanned urban growth and air pollution due to growing number of vehicles owned either by local residents or those brought by/for tourists. The increase in urban population is an outcome of three distinct factors: a natural increase in population within urban areas, migration of people from rural to urban areas, and reclassification of settlements from rural to urban. All three factors have been at work over the past decade. This is also the predominant trend in the IHR. The share of urban population in the IHS rose to 26 per cent in 2011, from 21 per cent in 2001. Though this increase is considerably less than the national figure of 31%, it is notable that the urban population in the Himalayan states grew at not less than 40 per cent, much more than the meager 12 per cent growth of their rural population, and certainly faster than the growth in the all-India picture. Their location abutting glacial melt pathways or on steep slopes especially in ecologically fragile and environmentally sensitive landscape makes Himalayan cities particularly susceptible to consequences of climate change, manifested with increasing frequency by natural disasters leading to serious loss of life and property. Managing climate change in urban centres in the mountains would be far more challenging and costlier than in plains because of the prevalence of smaller urban units, scattered across difficult terrain, varying in altitude and topographical location. The scarcity of water and land because of steep and unstable slopes, and long distances from rail heads, airports and other transport connections limit the size of cities and towns in mountains. Of the six population size classes, the three smaller classes (<20,000 population per city) account for 78.5% of 320 cities and towns of the IHS. Only 11 (12 when Darjeeling is also included) cities have more people than 0.1 million. Within the mountains, urban out-growth is a new, but now a common phenomenon. Because of the poor returns of agriculture, the lack of basic amenities including drinking water, poor schooling and health facilities migration from villages to towns in search of jobs is an important factor that has stressed towns and cities in the Himalayas beyond sustainable limits. The ice cover is decreasing in the Indian Himalayan Region, as for most glaciers in the world. The rate of retreat has increased in recent years. Though controversies with regard to the rate of change in glaciers still persist, the overall trend based on data of a relatively higher confidence level is that the Himalayan 8 glaciers are generally losing ice rapidly. f. Aligning tourist/pilgrim footfalls with carrying capacity of landscape. Recover from tourists a fair share of the cost development and maintenance of infrastructure and services required to handle tourist traffic. It has been estimated that Himalayan glaciers lost about 174 gigatonnes of water between 2003 and 2009 contributing to catastrophic floods of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Processes determining the conversion of glaciers, ice and snow into run off and downstream flow are complex, but the impact of climate change on river regimes is expected to be profound. Regardless of the source, overall discharge is predicted to increase in all major river basins. This in turn, is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme events. Natural Disasters are of diverse types ranging from earth quakes, landslides, glacial lake bursts, cloudbursts, storms and forest fires. The phenomenon of climate change is largely associated (by way of influencing intensity and/or frequency) with hydro-meteorological events, and their consequences, that have a potential to become “disasters” for human societies and settlements that interface with them during their course of play. g. Limiting vehicular traffic through demand and supply side management. h. Harnessing full potential of renewable energy sources, especially geo-thermal, solar and hydel to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Handling the challenge of steering the inevitable phenomenon of urbanisation towards climate neutral and disaster resilience requires urgent steps. These steps can be categorized across the decision making scale as: i. Enhancing availability of LPG and banning use of fuelwood in urban areas to not only reduce air pollution but also to prevent destruction of surrounding forests in interest of for ecological/water security of cities and towns. j. Strengthening urban local bodies by sincere implementing 74th Constitutional amendment in letter and spirit to enable them to inhouse develop capacities and mechanisms for sustainable urban planning, development and management. k. Divert resources to develop affordable housing to address slums which are mostly located in disaster prone pockets. a. Objective assessment of vulnerability of each urban settlement. On all the above issues, Himalayan cities have a long way to go. But there is a new found recognition about the scale of challenge and likely outcomes of business as usual approach. b. Installing early warning systems and alert mechanisms. Govt. of India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlines existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation. The plan identifies eight core “national missions” running through 2017. These national missions are of special significance to the IHS which are at forefront of the effort to adapt to the steadily unfolding impact of climate change. c. Orientation and sensitisation of target populations strict enforcement. d. Creating robust and effective disaster response mechanisms in terms of manpower, equipment and location of response teams. e. Enforcing building codes and zonation regulations without exceptions. 9 Of the 8 “national missions” five, as listed below, are particularly relevant to the task at hand in IHR. National Mission for Himalayan Ecosystem Sustaining the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency The need of the hour is to identify “himalayan” priorities under each mission and institutional delivery mechanisms that understand the special situation in this critical region. Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Govt. of India is also playing a proactive role in the area of climate change and discharging principal role in global and regional climate change negotiations has encouraged each state to prepare a State Climate Change Action Plans. Indian Himalayan States, in their respective State Action Plans (SAP) have considered many climate change issues directly or indirectly connected to urban areas including regulation, urban transport, restoration of green cover, sewage and waste treatment, water supply, urban floods, energy, planning and capacity building of municipal officials and other urban bodies. However, SAPs do not throw much light on inter-city, and intra-city variations that charecterise the IHS as well as existing social inequities that impact disaster resilience. SAPs are also weak in social and institutional aspects, with technological aspects dominating the thought process. India has made efforts to set up disaster response infrastructure by way of setting up National Disaster Response Force (NDRF). However, th size of NDRF (8-10 Battalions of paramilitary forces) is way too small for a country of India’s size and diversity. States need to be mandated to set up their own disaster relief forces to reduce dependence NDRF as well as to assist neighboring states in case of need. Equally important are preventive measures like disaster proof infrastructure, enforcement of building regulations, and adherence to proper landuse. Indian Himalayan Region is under a phase of rapid transformation of its natural landscape and demographic profile due to economic development and resultant rural urban migration. Urban expansion has emerged as a key driver of socio-economic and environmental change in the Indian Himalayan region broadly aligned to the general scenario in the Indian subcontinent which has been experiencing rapid urban growth but without a matching focus of policy makers on accommodating the migrating millions into planned urban development and expansion. Recent pronouncements of Government of India to tackle the urbanisation challenge with a sense of urgency that it deserves gives hope. 10 The Himalayas An Overview L iterally meaning the “abode of snow”, the Himalayas epitomize earth’s grandeur. Characterized by extreme altitude, complex geology and rich vegetation, this majestic landscape has inspired awe and commanded respect from humanity like no other geological region on earth. the west to Namcha Barwa (Tibet) in the east, the Himalayas are bordered to the northwest by the mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush and the Karakoram and to the north by the Plateau of Tibet. The width of the Himalayas (south to north) varies between 125 to 250 miles (200 to 400 km). The Himalayas are just 45 million years (Myr) old — mere striplings compared with the Aravalis in India (around 4,000 Myr old) and the North American Appalachians (440–480 Myr). As if to reflect their age Himalayas are still rising and tectonically more active than most mountain ranges. Covering a total area of about 230,000 square miles (595,000 square km), the Himalayas include the highest mountains in the world, with more than 110 peaks rising to elevations of 24,000 feet (7,300 metres), or more, including the Mount Everest, the world’s highest, with an elevation of 29,035 feet (8,850 metres). In fact 30 peaks exceed 7600 meters in elevation making Greater Himalayas one of the greatest Extending over 2500 KM from Nanga Parbat (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) in Ten major basin boundaries in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Source: (ICIMOD) 11 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation geo-ecological systems on the planet. With the largest deposit of snow and ice after Arctic and Antartic regions, Himalayas are often referred to as the Third Pole, or the Water Tower of Asia. With 60,000 KM2 of glacial area, the region is the source of 10 rivers that sustain the vast population of Asia, namely Indus, Ganga, Brahmaputra, Amu Darya, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, Yellow and Tarim. About 1.3 billion people live in the combined drainage basin of these rivers. On a map, from north to south the Himalayas are grouped into four parallel, longitudinal belts of Shivaliks (Outer Himalayas), Himachal (Lower himlayas), Himadri (Higher Himalayas) and Trans Himalayas (Tibetan Himalayas). The Himalayas have been divided into two regions: the Eastern Himalaya, which covers parts of Nepal, Bhutan, the northeast Indian states of West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh, southeast Tibet (China), and northern Myanmar; and the Western Himalaya, covering the Kumaon-Garhwal, Annual precipitation (mm) Pattern of Precipitation Across the Himalayan States (East To West). Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Uttarakhand 12 Himachal Pradesh J&K The Himalayas An Overview Kush Himalayas, 30% are endemic. The Himalayas provide “asylum” to species migrating under the influence of climate change. Historically, four warm and cold cycles occurred in the Himalayas during the Quaternary alone. The highly heterogeneous landscapes in the Himalayas saved many species by providing refuge to them. northwest Kashmir, and northern Pakistan. While these divisions are largely artificial, the deep defile carved by the antecedent Kali Gandaki River between the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri mountains has been an effective dispersal barrier to many species. Biogeographically, the Himalayan Mountain Range straddles a transition zone between the Palearctic and Indo-Malayan realms. Species from both realms are represented in the region. In addition, geological, climatic and altitudinal variations, as well as topographic complexity, contribute to the biological diversity of the Himalayas along their east-west and north-south axes. The Himalayan ecosystem is fragile and diverse. On one hand it includes more than 50 million people who practice hill agriculture and remain vulnerable. It is vital to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding perennial rivers that are the source of drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich base for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. The regions climatic zones contain a rich diversity of species and ecosystems that exist along a pronounced humidity gradient. Among the 34 biodiversity hotspots of the world, four are located in the Himalayas. The vegetation varies from tropical evergreen forest to semi-desert and thorn stepee. Of the 20,000 species of plants found in Hindu On the other hand the Himalayan eco system is vulnerable and susceptible to the impacts and consequences of a) changes on account of natural causes, b) climate Population-Density-In-The-Hindu-Kush-Himalaya-Region http://easytimegallery.com/h/hindu-kush-mountain-range-world-map.html 13 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Cities-In-The-Hindu-Kush-Himalaya-Region Source: http://www.grida.no/graphicslib Salient Demographic Features of the Indian Himalayan States (IHS) States Jammu and Kashmir Area (KM2) (% forest area) 2, 22,236 (15.8%) Himachal Pradesh (26.37%) Uttarakhand (45.80%) Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Manipur Mizoram Tripura Meghalaya Nagaland Assam Hills West Bengal Hill 55,671 53,483 7,096 (47.34%) 83,743 (80.54%) 22,327 (76.54%) 21,081 (90.68%) 10,846 (76.04%) 22,429 (77.02%) 16,579 (80.33%) 15322 (68.0%) 3149 (75.52%) Population (million) Density | KM2 (2011) Population Density (per KM2 ) Excluding area >4000m) Sex ratio (2011) Literacy rate* (2011) 12.54 124 (as per census area) 155 (as per total area) 862 68.74 T 78.26 M | 58.01 F 6.86 123 198 972 83.78 T 90.83 M | 76.60 F 10.09 189 238 963 79.63 T 88.33 M | 70.70 F 0.61 86 192 890 82.20 T 87.29 M | 76.43 F 1.38 17 18 938 66.95 T 73.69 M | 59.57 F 2.86 122 same 992 79.85 T 86.49 M | 73.17 F 1.10 52 same 976 91.58 T 93.72 M | 89.45 F 3.67 350 same 960 87.75 T 92.18 M | 83.15 F 2.97 132 same 989 77.48 T 77.17 M | 73.78 F 1.98 119 same 931 80.11 T 83.29 M | 76.69 F 2.69 91 same 970 1.85 586 same 944 Source: Census of India 2011 *T- total literacy; M- male literacy; F- female literacy; 14 The Himalayas An Overview INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION : RURAL URBAN SPLIT Population Rural Urban Rural (%) Urban (%) Growth (2001-2011) Rural (2001-2011) Urban (2001-2011) INDIA J&K 12,541,302 9,108,060 3,433,242 72.62% 27.38% 23.64% 19.42% 36.42% Uttarakhand 10,086,292 7,036,954 3,049,338 69.77% 30.23% 18.81% 11.52% 39.94% Himachal Pradesh 6,864,602 6,176,050 688,552 89.97% 10.03% 12.94% 12.65% 15.61% Tripura 3,673,917 2,712,464 961,453 73.83% 26.17% 14.84% 2.22% 76.17% Meghalaya 2,966,889 2,371,439 595,450 79.93% 20.07% 27.95% 27.17% 31.12% Manipur 2,570,390 1,736,236 834,154 67.55% 32.45% 12.05% 1.07% 44.83% Nagaland 1,978,502 1,407,536 570,966 71.14% 28.86% -0.58% -14.55% 66.57% Arunchal Pradesh 1,383,727 1,066,358 317,369 77.06% 22.94% 26.03% 22.56% 39.27% Mizoram 1,097,206 525,435 571,771 47.89% 52.11% 23.48% 17.40% 29.65% Sikkim 610,577 456,999 153,578 74.85% 25.15% 12.89% -4.99% 156.52% Darjeeling 1,886,823 1,118,860 727,963 60.58% 39.42% 14.77% ?? ?? Dima Hasao 214,102 151,613 62,489 70.81% 29.19% 13.84% ?? ?? Karbi Anglong 956,313 843,347 112,966 88.19% 11.81% 17.58% ?? ?? Total IHS 46,830,642 34,711,351 12,079,291 74.12% 25.79% ?? ?? ?? 672,425 438,871 196,111 69.10% 30.90% ?? ?? ?? 4,523,820 82.92% 17.07% ?? ?? ?? xx xx xx xx xx xx BHUTAN (2005 Census) NEPAL (2011Census) Total IHR 26,494,504 21,970,684 73997571 xx Source: Census of India 2011 change resulting from anthropogenic emissions and c) developmental paradigms of the modern society. THE INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION Covering an area of about 5 lakh KM2 (about 16.2% of India’s total geographical area), the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) straddles 10 states of India collectively referred to as Indian Himalayan States or IHS. These states are Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and hill districts of Assam (Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong) and West Bengal (Darjeeling). For the purpose of an intellectual enquiry, it is futile to delink Nepal and Bhutan from the construct of “Indian” Himalayan 15 Region, regardless of the universally agreed and respected political boundaries. In this document, the term IHR includes portions of Himalayas in Nepal and Bhutan. Starting from foot-hills in the south (Shivaliks) the region extends to Tibetan plateau in the north (trans-Himalaya). Three of the world’s greatest rivers critical to the Indian sub continent (Indus, Brahmaputra and the Ganga) originate in the Himalayas and drain into the Indian Ocean supporting livelihoods of 600 million people in their combined drainage basin. Waters from these rivers have allowed the evolution of human civilization in this part of the world as manifested in the form of the Indus Valley Civilisation. The Himalayan rivers are endowed with tremendous potential for hydroelectric generation, a significant Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Poverty levels in the Indian Himalayan State (2009-10) as per Tendulkar Methodology Tendulkar Committee States Rural Urban Total Nagaland 19.30 25.00 20.90 Mizoram 31.10 11.50 21.10 8.1 12.80 9.4 Meghalaya 15.30 24.10 17.10 Arunachal Pradesh 26.20 24.90 25.90 Sikkim 15.50 5.0 13.10 Tripura 19.80 10.00 17.40 Himachal Pradesh 9.10 12.6 9.5 Uttarakhand 14.90 25.20 18.00 Jammu & Kashmir West Bengal Himalayas Manipur - - - 47.40 48.40 47.10 Source: Mukherji, GB. 2010. Report of the Task force. Planning Commission, Government of India, New Delhi proportion of which is yet to be harnessed. The region is rich in cultural diversity and languages; the three principal religions, namely Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam find full expression along the Himalayan arc. Multi ethnic composition is one of the striking features of the region. More than 170 of about 700 scheduled tribes of India inhabit the IHS. IHS: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Though IHR represents one of the major wilderness areas of the world, anthropogenic STATE/COUNTRY Tourist Arrivals (TA) pressure has been on the increase in recent years, not helped at all by the influence and pressure of densely populated adjacent Indo-Gangetic plains. The total population of the Indian Himalayan States (IHS) and two Assam and one West Bengal districts (Darjeeling) is 46.79 million (Census 2011). Thus, ~4% of India’s total population lives in the Indian Himalayan States, which account for 16.2% of India’s geographical area (533,604/3,287,263 KM2). Population is sparse, with density ranging from 17 persons/KM2 in Arunachal Pradesh to 350 persons/KM2 in Tripura. The average Resident Population (RP) TA as % of RP Source Jammu & Kashmir 100.21 124.54 80.46 ILFS Himachal Pradesh 126.60 68.64 184.44 ILFS Uttarakhand 303.33 100.86 300.74 ORG MARG Nepal 8.04* 264.94 3.03 Govt. of Nepal Bhutan 1.16** 6.72 17.26 Govt. of Bhutan Sikkim 7.20 6.10 118.03 Arunachal Pradesh 1.43 13.83 10.34 Nagaland 0.22 19.78 1.11 Manipur 1.28 25.70 4.98 Rizal & Asokan, IOSR Journal of Business and Management, Volume 12/4, July, 2013 Tripura 3.59 36.73 9.77 Mizoram 0.58 10.97 5.29 Meghalaya 6.57 29.66 22.15 Note: Population Figures for Indian States from Census of India 2011 | **Census Population of Bhutan 2005 | *Census of Nepal 2011 16 The Himalayas An Overview GSDP and Per Capita Income in The Indian Himalayan States Population 2011 (in millions) GSDP million Rs./constant prices/(201112) Jammu & Kashmir 12.55 41,3670 28932 27.21 Himachal Pradesh 6.85 42,0320 49817 10.04 Uttarakhand 10.12 55,6060 47831 30.55 Sikkim 0.607 36420 47655 24.97 22.67 State Per capita income (Rs.) at constant price, 2011-12 % urban population Arunachal Pradesh 1.383 58990 38130 Nagaland 1.981 89290 415222 28.97 Manipur 2.721 76320 24327 30.21 51.51 Mizoram 1.091 45570 36732 Tripura 3.671 154630 40411 26.18 Meghalaya 2.964 117600 38944 20.08 39410 27.24 1210.193 52220270 38005 31.16 Average IHS India population density across the 10 Indian Himalayan States is 124.6 KM2, nearly one-third of the country’s density, 382/ KM2. However if only altitudinal range where humans can normally live were to be considered, the density is clearly higher. From this criterion, as an example, the density of Uttarakhand comes to about 234/KM2, instead of 189/KM2. In most Indian Himalayan States both birth and death rate are lower in urban than rural populations, the difference being sharp in Meghalaya and Mizoram and negligible in Nagaland and Sikkim. Both birth and death rates in IHS are generally lower than that of the country. Literacy rate in IHS is higher than the national average (74.09%), except in Jammu & Kashmir (68.74%) and Arunachal Pradesh (66.95%). The difference in male and female literacy rates at the national level is 16.7%, while in several Eastern Himalayan states it is less than 10% (Meghalaya 3.4%, Mizoram 4.3%, Nagaland 6.61% and Tripura 9.0%). The matriarchal nature in some of the tribes of these states has played a role in this healthy gender ratio. Jammu & Kashmir with difference of over 17 20% reports the widest gap in the literacy rates of male and female populations. Tourism has had a huge impact on demography of western himalayan states of India. Good connectivity with the densely populated northern Indian plains, Colonial hill stations that have become full fledged cities and ‘relatively’ better developed tourism infrastructure play an important role. Seasonal and sharp swells in population due to tourist influx has a profound impact on management, and logistical supply chain w.r.t urban areas. IHS: ECONOMIC PROFILE With the exception of Jammu & Kashmir and Manipur where per capita state GDP (at constant price) is below all India average, the Indian Himalayan States have per capita state GDP values either close to the national average (e.g. Meghalaya), or clearly higher than the national average (in Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Uttarakhand). The average percentage of population below poverty line in the IHS (19.95%) is Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation significantly lower than all India average (29.80%). In this regard performance of a majority of IHS is better than even the celebrated states like Gujarat and Maharashtra. The rural and urban divide in poverty varies across the IHS. In Arunachal and Manipur both rural and urban poverty values are high and similar. Contrary to the general observations, poverty is higher in urban areas than rural areas in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Uttarakhand. The average per capita income across the Indian Himalayan States (Rs. 39,410) is marginally above the national average (Rs. 38,005), while the percentage of urban population is lower than the national average (27.24% compared to 31.6% for all India). Across the Indian Himalayan States, per capita income is clearly higher than the national average in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim. Among these states of relatively high per capita income, urban population accounts for 10.04%, 30.55 % and 24.97% of the total population respectively. Evidently, the effect of urbanization is not uniform on per capita income, though the positive effect of urban facilities on certain demographic features is obvious. The existence of urban pockets of poverty in many Himalayan states would need to be considered while addressing the challenges of climate change. Nearly half of the urban population in Manipur is below the poverty line and urban poverty is substantial also in Uttarakhand, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. In contrast, urban poverty is distinctly lower than rural poverty in Mizoram, Sikkim and Tripura. 18 Urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region Trends and Characteristics T he pace of India’s urbanisation has been slow by international standards. According to Census and United Nations data, India’s share of urban population in 2011 was 31 per cent, compared to around 50 per cent in China, Indonesia and Nigeria, 61 per cent in South Africa, 78 per cent in Mexico, and 87 per cent in Brazil. In the past 60 years (1950-2011) India’s urban population share rose from 17 per cent to 31 per cent, while China’s quadrupled from 12 per cent to 49 per cent. Nevertheless, the number of people involved is large: In the 20 years from 1991 to 2011, India’s urban population rose to 377 million - 160 million more than in 1991 and 90 million more than in 2001. By 2031 the urban population is projected to increase by more than 200 million to 600 million, or 40 per cent of the national population. For the first time since Independence, the decadal increase in the size of the urban population (by 90.99 million people over 2001-11) was greater than that of the rural population (by 90.47 million). with 25% of urban India living in slums. The increase in urban population is an outcome of three distinct factors: a natural increase in population within urban areas, migration of people from rural to urban areas, and reclassification of settlements from rural to urban. All three factors have been at work over the past decade. This is also the predominant trend in the IHR. Total population of the Indian Himalayan States (including 2 hill districts of Assam and 1 of West Bengal) is 46.33 million. Taking into account Bhutan and Nepal, this figure swells to 73.99 million. The share of urban population in IHS rose to 26 per cent in 2011, from 21 per cent in 2001. Though this increase is considerably less than the national figure of 31%, it is notable that the urban population in the Himalayan Trend of Urban Population Growth in India Despite India’s relatively low level and pace of urbanisation, the condition of urban communities is woeful Source: World Urbanization Prospects, 2007. United Nations 19 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Population Growth Indices in Selected Himalayan States States Birth rate Death rate Net growth rate Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Himachal Pradesh 17.5 11.5 16.9 7.2 4.2 6.9 1.03 0.73 Total 1.0 Uttarakhand 20.2 16.2 19.3 6.7 5.1 6.3 1.35 1.11 1.3 Meghalaya 26.6 14.8 24.5 8.4 5.6 7.9 1.82 0.92 1.66 Mizoram 21.1 17.0 17.1 5.4 3.7 4.5 1.57 0.93 1.25 Nagaland 17.0 16.0 16.8 3.7 3.3 3.6 1.33 1.27 1.32 Sikkim 18.1 16.1 17.8 5.9 3.8 5.6 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.08 0.58 0.99 Tripura 15.6 11.5 14.9 4.8 5.7 5.0 Jammu & Kasmir 12.5 18.0 17.8 5.7 4.7 5.5 Manipur 14.4 4.1 20.6 7.43 Arunachal Pradesh India Source: Census of India, 2011 states grew at not less than 40 per cent, much more than the meager 12 per cent growth of their rural population, and certainly faster than the growth in the all-India picture. Like rest of the country, holistic and future oriented urban planning has not really been an over-riding priority for governments in the Indian Himalayan Region. Mushrooming growth of tiny towns perched here and there is a characteristic feature of present day Indian Himalayan States. The India census recognizes six classes of cities and towns. Class I towns have a population of more than 100,000; Class II towns have a population ranging between 50,000 and 99,999. Class III towns have a range of population range from 20,000 to 49,000; Class IV towns from 10,000 to 19,999 and Class V towns from 5,000 to 9,999. Class VI towns have a population of less than 5,000. Of the six population size classes, the three smaller classes (classes with <20,000 population per city) account for 78.5% of 320 cities and towns of 10 Himalayan States of India. Only 11 (it is 12 when Darjeeling is also included) cities have more people than 0.1 million. In Sikkim, the smallest state, the two largest classes are not present and the Urban Settlements in Indian Himalayan States Size Class Frequency 320 cities/towns 40.00 Percentage 93 30.00 77 46 20.00 10.00 0.00 81 11 12 I II III IV VI VI Source: Census of India, 2011 20 Urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region Trends and Characteristics smallest category (VI) accounted for 66.6% of cities and towns. Because of the presence of a sizeable area in the submontane belt, Uttarakhand has four cities with over 0.1 million population. In contrast, the adjacent state Himachal Pradesh with similar total population, has only one city of the top two large size classes, and the number of towns and cities increases with decreasing size class from III to VI. Jammu and Kashmir is closer to Uttarakhand in size distribution of urban units. Nagaland differs from the rest of the states in having only three intermediate classes of towns (II, III and IV) with populations ranging from of 9999 to 19,999 per city. In Meghalaya, the fourth category (10000-19999) alone accounts for 50% of towns and cities. In 7 out of the 10 states the three smaller classes accounts for more than 82% of towns and cities. Only in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura, are the percentages of the smaller towns lower (33.3-69.6%). In all of them the smallest population size class is absent. Within the mountains, urban out-growth is a new, but common phenomenon. Because of the Poor returns of agriculture, the lack of basic amenities including drinking water, poor schooling and health facilities migration from agriculture to towns in search of jobs is an important factor that has stressed towns and cities in the Himalayas beyond limits. Cities have atleast some infrastructure, and prospects for obtaining services, including drinking water and this in itself a major draw. In mountain-centric IHS like Himachal Pradesh and Sikkim (states where the capital is in mountains, and infrastructural differences between mountains and plains are not sharp), the challenges of providing services in the face of growing Urban Setlement Patterns in North-Eastern States Tripura (No. of Towns/Cities:23 50.00 9 40.00 6 30.00 20.00 10.00 1 0 0.00 0.00 I III II IV Arunachal Pradesh 50.00 VI 40.00 20.00 0 0 I II Jammu & Kashmir 1 1 1 III IV VI VI (No. of Towns/Cities: 69) 40.00 7 6 Percentage Percentage 6 60.00 0.00 VI (No. of Towns/Cities: 17) 40.00 30.00 3 20.00 10.00 (No. of Towns/Cities: 69) 80.00 7 Percentage Percentage Sikkim 1 0 0 0.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 I II III IV VI VI I 21 II III IV VI VI Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Himachal Pradesh 26 40.00 16 30.00 20.00 7 6 10.00 1 0 I II III IV VI VI 5 Percentage Percentage 2 1 1 10.00 0 0.00 12 40.00 8 30.00 20.00 4 10.00 1 II III IV Mizoram VI VI I (No. of Towns/Cities :22) 5 20.00 1 0.00 2 0 II change III could IV be VI VI daunting. IMPACT OF TOURISM A significant extent of urbanisation in the IHR can be attributed to the tourism sector that is the main stay of the economy of hill states. Tourist arrivals, as a % age of resident population, are in high in 300% in uttarakhand, 185% in Himachal Pradesh, 118% in Sikkim and 80% in the J & K. The main pressure of tourism influx in borne by cities and towns. In addition expansion of cities and town to accommodate the tourists tourism, also triggers migration of population from surrounding rural areas IV VI VI 4 40.00 3 30.00 2 20.00 10.00 0.00 I III (No. of Towns/Cities: 9) 50.00 6 Percentage 30.00 II Nagaland 8 40.00 4 0 0.00 I Percentage No. of Towns/Cities - 29 50.00 40.00 climate 4 Manipur 50.00 10.00 4 10.00 25 13 Fig. 9b. Frequency of different size class of urban population in Waste Himalayan (No. of Towns/Cities - 10) 60.00 1 14 20.00 0.00 Meghalaya 20.00 26 30.00 0.00 30.00 (No. of Towns/Cities: 76) 40.00 Percentage 50.00 Percentage Uttarakhand (No. of Towns/Cities - 56) 0 I II III IV 0 0 VI VI to meet manpower needs of the tourism industry. It is to be noted that due to climatic reasons number of tourists is not spread across the year but largely crammed into “season” months of April-July and OctoberNovember. Large number and skewed temporal distribution of tourist arrivals in himalayan hill station and pilgrimage centers has its own impact on economic and urban development patterns as well as natural resource management in hill areas. It is often the case that the direct share of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) in government revenue proceeds from tourism industry (vat, service tax luxury tax) is negligible. This is 22 Urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region Trends and Characteristics in contrast to the situation where it is ULBs that have to deal with the requirements for catering to tourist arrivals created. The cities of the himalayas are growing and witnessing the same rot as Indian cities in the plains, from mountains of trash, untreated sewage, chronic water shortages unplanned urban growth and air pollution due to growing number of vehicles owned ether by local resident or those brought by/four tourists. 23 Given the ecological and environmental fragility of mountainous land scape it is even more important that we plan for urban growth and its spill over into newer settlements. However unlike the cities in the plains, cities in IHR lack the luxury of abundant supply of land in surrounding regions due to topography to accommodate fresh influx of migration. Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation A Comparison of Urban Systems in Himalayas and in Plains Attribute Himalayas Plains Remarks Size of Human Population Generally < 100,000 Generally > 100,000 In Himalayas only 12 cities have > 100,000 population but mostly in foothills or Dunes Climatic variations across cities Significant – altitude being a major factor Similar across cities, except coastal factor Variability in across mountain cities would require different strategies to deal with climate change Topography Highly heterogeneous; slopes very vulnerable to landslides and other mass wasting Stable, plains with very gentle slopes Perched on immature topography, most mountain cities are very vulnerable to landslides Incidents of weather extremes and other hazards High Low Precipitation is higher in mountains than in adjacent plans, and might increase further Impact of disasters High and quite lasting on infrastructure and supplies Relatively low, and short lived In mountains repair of damaged landslide sites is almost round the year. Energy Demand Low High In the absence of large commercial areas and mass public transport system, mountain cities require less energy Alternative routes to cities Limited, absent in several cities Multiple access It is a severe limitation in mountains, as supplies are difficult to manage after a cut-off of a life line (road) Winter fog Rare For several weeks In much of the Northern plains of India fog disrupts transport systems for several weeks each year, while mountains are sunny Tourism Common to most mountain cities Limited to few cities of cultural and/or historical significance Many mountain cities are tourist places and on route to destinations Dependence on external supplies on day to day basis High and from distant places Low from distant places In mountains food, medicines, etc. are transported from far off places Dependence on natural ecosystems High, particularly on springs and streams for water; firewood for cooking used in many cities; Vegetation supports bird watching and other recreational activities. Limited to the exploitation of ground water and lifting water from rivers In mountains the scope for managing watershed for enhancing ecosystem services is high; it can be a major adaptation strategy with regard to climate change Areas surrounding urban systems Largely forested Largely agricultural Vegetation within towns Natural forest retained in some, but in others forests are severely degraded. ones. Anthropogenically transformed, with nothing of original vegetation left In hill station like Nainital and Mussoori even the remains of old growth forests can be seen, they store substantial amounts of carbon. Source: S. P. Singh and Subrat Sharma, 2014 24 Climate Change & Indian Himalayan Region Extent and Dimensions C limate change as a global phenomenon is already impacting millions of people all over the world, transforming their lives from a certainty to an uncertainty one. Changing landscapes, increasing temperature, rising sea levels, increased risk of drought, fire and flash floods, increased disease burden and economic losses are all indications of climate change. The hardest hit from impacts of climate change are the people living in developing countries, and especially those in mountainous regions. They are not only vulnerable but with limited and difficult accessibility. There is no ambiguity about the incidence, effects of, climate change in the Himalayas. Receding glaciers, erratic and unpredictable weather conditions, altered rainfall patterns, and increasing temperatures are impacting on the people. With a heterogeneous geography, the region has great climatic variability and forms a barrier to atmospheric circulation for the summer monsoon and winter westerlies. Being a sensitive hotspot of the phenomenon of global climate change, these Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in Selected Himalayan Cities/States Region/Cities Dehradun (Uttarakhand) at 670 altitude (Singh and Chaudhary 2013) Gangtok (Sikkim) Trends From 1967 to 2007 (40 years) annual maximum temperature increased by 0.43oC, annual minimum by 0.380C and annual mean by 0.49oC; within this, (the temperature rise in later phase (1988-2007, 19 years) was as following: annual maximum 0.42oC, annual minimum 0.59oC and annual mean 0.54oC. • • Manipur • • • Arunachal Pradesh Between 1957 and 2009 (52 years) minimum temperature increased by 2.5oC, roughly at the rate of 0.5oC per decade; winters shortened from 6 months to 3-4 months (?) Decrease in rain fall period from 9 months to 5-7 month, but increase in intensity. More frequent fires because of long and intense droughts. Between 1954 and 20011 (57 years) maximum temperature increased by 0.8oC (form 26.5oC to 27.3oC) and the minimum by 1.5oC (from 13.8oC to 15.3oC) Precipitation increased in some towns and decreased in others. For entire Brahmaputra basin annual precipitation is predicted to increase by 2.3% by 2030s, but for the Brahmaputra basin within Arunachal Pradesh, 5-15% decreases are predicted by mid-century (2050s) Western Himalayan (Bhutiyani et al. 2009) Shimla (2201m) From 1866-2006 Significant increases in mean annual, winter and summer temperatures. Srinagar (1587m) From 1901-1981 Leh (3504m) From 1901-1989 Source: State Action Plans on Climate Change/Misc. 25 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Major Rivers of IHR: Impact of Climate Change on River Plow River (basin area, KM2) Glacial melt in river flow (%) Signal of trends Probable future References Wetter in past half century; increasing river flow in some tributaries; 9 tributaries dried up Sharp drop in runoff in glacier retreated catchment, floods occur owing to extreme rainfall Chen et al. 2006 Tarim (1,152,448) 40.2 Amu Darya (534,739) 10–20 Increase in precipitation but drop in annual runoff by 2100, probability of river runoff increase of 83–87% owing to mainly an increase in precipitation Aizen et al. 1997, 2007 Indus (1,081,718) 44.8 Significant increase in rainfall (19%); increase in river flow between 14 and 90% Flow from glacial sub-basin peaks at about 150% of initial flow around 2060; 4% less annual mean flow Rees & Collins 2006; Singh et al. 2008 Ganges (1,016,124) 9.1 Slight increase in rainfall and heavy rain; decrease in rainy days per 100 years Flow from glacial sub-basin peaks at about 170% of initial flow around 2070; 18% less annual mean flow Rees & Collins 2006; Singh et al. 2008 Brahmaputra (651,335) 12.3 Increase in runoff (low flow and high flow); nonsignificant change in precipitation but change in runoff at lower basin Annual flow in Lhasa River increases by 11.3% and monthly maximum flow increases by 45% in 2050s Gong 2006; Milliman et al. 2008 Irrawaddy (413,710) small Unknown Unknown not available Salween (217,914) 8.8 Increase in river flow during monsoon River-flow decrease over short term (2010–2039) and increase over long term (2070–2099) Ma et al. 2009 Mekong (805,604) 6.6 Increase in precipitation during early monsoon; increase in runoff Rainfall and extreme floods increase Costa-Cabral et al. 2008; Nijssen et al.2001 Yangtze (1,722,193) 18.5 Increase in precipitation, extreme rainfall and frequent floods; no significant change in runoff Glacier areas in upper Yantze decrease by 11.6% and glacial discharge runoff increases 28.5% by 2050 Su et al. 2005; Wang et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 2006 Yellow (944,970) 1.3 No significant change in precipitation, but significant decrease in runoff Rainfall and evapotranspiration increase; river flow decreases Xu 2005; Milliman et al. 2008; Nijssen et al. 2001 17.4 (average) Source: S. P. Singh and Subrat Sharma, 2014 impacts manifest at a particularly rapid rate. It is predicted that coming years will see significant stress on food, water and energy security, as well as biodiversity and species loss. As a response to climate change, ice cover is decreasing in the Indian Himalayan Region, as for most glaciers in the world. The rate of retreat has increased in recent years. It is estimated that Himalayan glaciers have lost about 174 gigatonnes of water between 2003 and 2009 contributing to catastrophic floods of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Pollution is accelerating the melt. An ‘Asian brown cloud’, formed from the 2- million tons of soot and dark particles released into the atmosphere every year, mostly from India and China, warms the air and surface ice. (Leghari, Nature, 2013). Processes 26 determining the conversion Climate Change & Indian Himalayan Region Extent and Dimensions Photo Courtesy: http://samvada.org/2013/news/50 than the increase in the day time temperature. of glaciers, ice and snow into run off and downstream flow are complex, but the impact of climate change on river regimes is expected to be profound. • Precipitation trends are uncertain and more region-specific. The observed data of last three-to-four decades, however, indicates decrease in precipitation in much of the Himalayas. • Extreme climate events seem to have increased with time, though data is scarce. The generally accepted features of global climate change in the Himalayas (Shrestha et al. 2012, Singh et al. 2011) are as follows: • The rate of temperature rise in the Himalayas is more than the global mean (at places more than three times) and that predicted for the region. • The temperature rise is more during winters than other seasons. The increase in the night time temperature is greater Some data analyses are available for changes in climate of cities in the Indian Himalayas. A trend analysis of temperature change from 1876 to 2006 in cities of the western Glacier studies in Hindu Kush-Himalayas by outcome, method, region and confidence level Total Studies 75 Studies showing glacier shrinkage 63 (All in Himalayan region) Studies showing glacier growth 12 (All in Karakoram region) Mass balance studies 11 (All in Himalayan region) Volume measurement 6 (All in Himalayan region) Area measurement 14 (All in Himalayan region) Terminus measurement 44 (12 of Karakoram region, 32 of Himalayan region) Studies of high confidence level 6 (All in Himalayas, showing shrinkage) Source: Miller et.. al. (2011) 27 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Precipitation Trends in Some Western Himalayan cities Precipitation Urban Centers Annual Winter Monsoon -* Shimla -* - Srinagar + + - Leh - - - Other cities -* + significant at 95% confidence level -* (from Bhutiyani et al. 2009) Himalayas (Shimla, Srinagar, Leh, etc.) indicates a significant rise in temperature both in seasonal and annual values: 0.06oC per decade for monsoon period, 0.14oC per decade for winter season and 0.11oC per decade annually (Bhutiyani et al. 2009). Because of delay in the onset of winter and the early onset of spring the duration of the winter season has shortened by about two weeks over last three decades. Related to this is the decrease and delay in snowfall. During this period both monsoon and annual precipitation have declined, and winter precipitation due to westerlies has increased, but insignificantly. Temperature increases far above 2oC, the accepted manageable limit, in many parts of the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau indicate that situations can be catastrophic in the region. Though controversies with regard to the rate of change in glaciers still persist, the overall trend based on data of a relatively higher confidence level is that the Himalayan glaciers are generally losing ice rapidly, except in the region of Karakoram where glaciers seem to increase in size. Though the quality of data for Karakoram glaciers is rather low, increase in the glaciers is possible as they are fed by westerlies, which have Ozone Concentration (O3 ) recorded at various observation sites in India Location Alt. (m) O3 (ppbv) Mohal 1154 9.4-32.0 Mohal-Kullu 1154 30.0±6.2 - 55.9± 9.3 Mt. Abu 1220 Nainital NOx (ppbv) Period of Study References May and June 1998-2002 Kuniyal et al., 2007 - Jan 2010-Dec 2010 Sharma et al., 2013 25-49 0.5-3.0 1993-2000 Naja et al., 2003 1958 25-67 - Oct 2006 - Dec2008 Kumar et al., 2010 Manali 2050 15.5 - 44.0 May and June 1998-2002 Kuniyal et al., 2007 Darjeeling 2134 18 - 63 Jan-Dec2004 Lal et. al. 2007 Kothi 2530 24.1-32.1 2004 Kuniyal et al., 2007 Pantnagar 231 39.3±18.9 (May) - March 2009 - June 2011 Ojha et al., 2012 Delhi 220 5-20 - Since 1997 Jain et al., 2005 Agra 169 10-75 15-40 Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 Singla et al., 2011 Indo-Gangetic Plain - 45-80 6.3 (Max) 2001 Beig and Ali 2006 - 28 Climate Change & Indian Himalayan Region Extent and Dimensions increased precipitation in recent decades. Basin. Regardless of the source, overall discharge is predicted to increase in all major river basins. This in turn, is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme events. The projected inter-annual variability is a serious potential cause of food insecurity. How will ice loss affect river discharges in the next three to four decades? Consistent increase in runoff in rivers due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation until 2050 has been predicted. Glacier melt accounts for 40.6% of the total run off in the Indus Basin, but only 11.5% in the Upper Ganga Basin, owing to its monsoon-dominated precipitation regime (Lutz et al. 2014). The contribution of glacier melt to total discharge in the upper Bramhaputra Basin is only slightly higher than that of the Upper Ganga Climate Change & Natural Disasters Natural Disasters are of diverse types. The phenomenon of climate change is largely asociated (by way of influencing intensity and/or frequency) a variety of Black Carbon (BC) Concentration at Selected Locations in India Location Observation Period BC ( µg m-3) Reference Mohal-Kullu 2010-12 2.8 ± 1.67 (mean) 4.76± 1.99 (max) 2.27± 1.04 (min) Present study Mohal-Kullu 2010 Pune Jan. - Dec. 2005 Kanpur Dec. 2004 6.0-20.0 Bangalore Nov. 2001 4.2 Babu and Moorthy, 2002 Patiala Oct. 2008-Nov2008 7-18 Sharma et al., 2012 Hanle Aug.2009 to July 2010 0.077±0.064 Nainital Nov. 2004 - Dec. 2007 1.34±0.06 Max (spring) 0.53±0.22 Min (rainy) Dehradun Jan. to Dec. 2007 Kanpur Dec., 2004 to April, 2005 1.14-10.2 Sharma et al., 2013 4.1 Safai et al. 2007 Tripathi et al. 2005 Babu et al., 2011 Dumka et al., 2010 4.3±0.62 (annual avg) Kant et al., 2012 8.5 Nair et al., 2007 Source: S. P. Singh and Subrat Sharma, 2014 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) on Land and Glaciers AOD Parbati Glacier (4500 m) Beas Glacier (3600 m) Kothi (2475 m) Mohal (1155 m) Nainital1 (1958 m) Pantnagar1 (230 m) Bareilly1 (180 m) Kanpur1 (142 m) 0.61 Mean 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.24 0.40 0.64 0.68 Max 0.25 0.20 0.22 0.50 - - - - Min 0.08 0.16 0.12 0.10 - - - - 29 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation hydro-meteorological events, and their consequences, that have a potential to become “disasters” for human societies and settlements that interface with them during their course of play. MONSOONAL STORMS Increased severity and frequency of monsoonal storms and flooding in the Himalayas, which are expected outcomes of climate change, may significantly alter the area’s erosion, river discharge, and sediment dynamics. Eventually, this may affect existing hydropower reservoirs, as well as those planned for construction in the Himalayas. Part of the generated sediment may be deposited on agricultural lands or in irrigation canals and streams, which will contribute to a deterioration in crop production and in the quality of agricultural lands. CLOUD BURST The cloud burst is a disastrous weather event in which, the heavy rainfall occurs over a localised area at faster rate. The rate of rainfall may be of the order of 100mm per hour. Cloud burst in India genrally occur during monsoon season over the orographically dominant regions like Himalayan region, Northeastern states and the Western Ghats. The associated convective cloud can extend upto a height of 15 km above the ground. Generally cloudbursts are associated with thunderstorms. The air currents rushing upwards in a rainstorm hold up a large amount of water. LANDSLIDES A landslide is defined as a large mass of rock and earth that suddenly and quickly moves down the side of a mountain. Landslides are a normal phenomenon in the course of evolution of mountain landscapes. However, landslides and are, also can triggered by excessive and continuous rain that surpasses the normal tolerance limit of sloping landmass. Climate Change and resultant extreme weather events involving excessive precipitation have a significant potential for aggravating the incidence of landslides in mountain ecosystems. GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD Recent Climate Change Induced Natural in IHR Year and Type State Affected Town 2010 (August) Jammu & Kashmir Leh 255 killed, Several missing. Estimated Damage Rs. 1.33 billion Uttarakhand Almora & Nainital Loss of property. Road blocked for several days. Himachal Pradesh Shimla Two evacuated houses collapsed in Totu area of Shimla following heavy rainfall. Mizoram Aizawl 10 killed, few missing, Injured 16 People. Uttarakhand Sriangar & Several Thousands died as well as missing. Heavy loss of Property along the river bank in Srinagar. Heavy loss of infrastructure. Jammu & Kashmir Srinagar & Jammu Still nothing is certain. Rescue operations are in place. Flash Flood after heavy downpour 2010 (September) Flash Flood 2012 (August) Heavy rainfall and Landslide 2013 (May) Impact Thunderstorm with strong squall 2013 (June) Flood 2014 (September) Flood 30 Climate Change & Indian Himalayan Region Extent and Dimensions Number and area of different size classes of high altitude lakes in the IHR Number 2000 120000 Area 100000 80000 1500 60000 1000 40000 500 20000 0 Total Area (sq Km) Total Number 2500 0 >500 100-500 25-100 10-25 2.25-10 <2.25 ha Size Class Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Himalayan Glaciers and one of nature’s greatest renewable storehouses of fresh water sustaining and benefiting hundreds of millions of people downstream. However, thinning and or retreat of Himalayan glaciers has resulted in the formation of new glacial lakes and the enlargement of existing ones due to the accumulation of meltwater behind loosely consolidated end moraine dams formed when the glaciers attained their maxima. It is estimated that there are over 8,000 glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region with more than 200 of them identified as potentially dangerous. Impact of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) often transcend international boundaries. The water from a lake in one country threatens the lives and properties of people in another. Glacial lakes pose a threat to their downstream communities, but they are also a potential source of water storage for sustaining agriculture and forest-based livelihoods. The Growing Danger Zones in the Himalayas Huge Glacial Lake Atop Himlalayas: A Potential Danger It’s strangely calming to watch the Imja glacier lake grow, as chunks of ice part from black cliffs and fall into the greygreen lake below. But the lake is a high-altitude disaster in the making – one of dozens of new danger zones emerging across the Himalayas because of glacier melt caused by climate change. If the lake, situated at 5,100m in Nepal’s Everest region, breaks through its walls of glacial debris, known as moraine, it could release a deluge of water, mud and rock up to 60 miles away. This would swamp homes and fields with a layer of rubble up to 15m thick, leading to the loss of the land for a generation. But the question is when, rather than if. When Sir Edmund Hillary made his successful expedition to the top of Everest in 1953, Imja did not exist. But it is now the fastest-growing of some 1,600 glacier lakes in Nepal, stretching down from the glacier for 1.5 miles. A satellite-based study has indicated that a huge glacial lake has formed atop the Himalayas in Sikkim with a “very high” potential for it to burst and create devastation downstream. Analysis of satellite data has revealed that the lake has formed at the snout of South Lhonak glacier, that is about 7,000 meters high on the mountain in the northeastern state. The lake, bounded only by loose soil and debris, could cause havoc downstream if it ruptures, according to scientists at the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) in Hyderabad. In a report published in the latest issue of the journal Current Science, NRSC researchers Babu Govindha Raj and co-workers say the glacial lake is about 630 meters wide and 20 meters deep. It covers an area of 98.7 hectares and contains 19.7 billion liters of water. A sudden outburst “can create devastating floods downstream,” they warn, adding that the probability of this happening “is very high” The Guardian | 11 October 2011 NDTV | Indo-Asian News Service, February 11, 2013 31 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation SOME RECENT GEO-HYDROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN IHR The occurrence of five major disasters in the Indian Himalayas during the last four years is disturbing. While it will be incorrect to link all disasters with climate change, it is a fact that in most of them the level of precipitation was extraordinarily high, and in some cases the time and place were abnormal. CLOUD BURST, LEH (2010) Flash floods and massive landslides, triggered by a series of cloudbursts, killed 179 people and injured at least 607 in Leh town and its adjoining villages in the Ladakh division in Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday 5.08.2010 night. According to sources, the cloudburst happened between 12.30 and 1.00 am on Friday the 6th of August 2010. The telephone network was completely damaged, besides the runway of the Leh airport, cutting off the town from the rest of the country. The district hospital and two buildings which were housing offices of the Union Home Ministry were also affected. Five villages were hit by the sudden downpour and flashfloods including Choglumsar and Shapoo. Old Leh city, including the main bus stand was among the worst affected. and Mandakini Rivers of Uttarakhand. Landslides and mass destruction of bridges & roads left about 100,000 pilgrims and tourists trapped in the valleys for days. More than 4000 people died in these unprecedented extreme weather events despite an all out search, rescue and relief mission launched by the entire government machinery as well as civil society organizations. The impact of the Kedarnath tragedy on tourism continues. To what extent the tragedy was due to poor governance and lack of preparedness, remains a moot point. KEDARNATH 2013 Heavy down pour on 16 - 17 June 2013 in the Kedarnath valley and surrounding areas together with the bursting of the Chorabari (glacial) Lake caused flooding of Saraswati SRINAGAR FLOODS (2014) Incessant rains in the upper catchment of River Jhelum, that snakes its way through the city of Srinagar, some 60 kilometres after it takes its rise in South Kashmir, caused worst ever floods in the history of Srinagar. The state government and the authorities were caught completely off guard with even the official agencies, including the local army garrison, mandated to deal with flood situation finding themselves marooned and helpless in the initial phase of the onslaught. More than 1000 people died with loss to private/public property running into thousands of crores. Apart from excessive precipitation, encroachment in the flood plains and spillways has also been recognised as a cause for the suffering of the Srinagar city. challenge is to minimise the risk of outburst and to reduce the vulnerability of nearby communities while securing the potential benefits of the lakes. Scientific information about existing glacial lakes, enhanced by monitoring and early warning systems, and mitigation measures to reduce the impact of glacial melting is essential. (ICIMOD, 2013). 32 Climate Change Adaptation&Disaster Risk Reduction in Himalayan Region Governance and Institutional Framework C limate change is a global issue, and a subject of intense multi/bilateral negotiations on how to address the causes and manage its ramifications. These processes facilitate cooperation that is so important for individual countries. On June 30, 2008, Govt. of India unveiled India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlining existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation. The plan identifies eight core “national missions” running through 2017. While international negotiations are important for evolving a unified global response to prospects of Climate Change, proactive action by nation states is an imperative that can not be escaped. This is especially so for developing countries, like India, where vulnerability to Climate Change sits on top of, and is exacerbated by other vulnerabilities created by poor access to land, overcrowding and low-quality housing and a complex set of social, institutional and economic processes. These national missions are of significance to the IHS which forefront of the effort to adapt steadily unfolding impact of climate Managing climate change in urban centres in the mountains would be far more challenging and costlier than in plains because of the prevalence of smaller urban units, scattered across difficult terrain, varying in altitude and topographical location. The scarcity of water and land because of steep and unstable slopes, and long distances from rail heads, airports and other transport connections limit the size of cities and towns in mountains. In states where plain areas are extensive, such as Uttarakhand, some cities are growing rapidly. For example, Dehradun in Uttarakhand acts as a huge sink for populations living in the Garhwal region and also the adjoining plains, resulting in depopulation at least in some pockets in the highlands. 33 special are at to the change. NATIONAL MISSIONS National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India’s water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming. The Government of India has given special importance to the Himalayan region by establishing the National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystems (NMSHE) within its Department of Science and Technology (DST) to focus on the issues of climate change in the Himalayas. There are also other related missions launched by the Central Government that deal with urban issues (can we list these missions). In addition there are several institutions and independent bilateral/multilateral/civil society organizations acting as knowledge providers, generating and disseminating information on urban systems. The goal of Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation State Action Plans on Climate Change prepared by Indian Himalayan States (Urban Sector) Sub-Sector (all States, otherwise stated) Specific Tools/Instruments proposed by certain states only Legislations/Body/Provisions Introduction/Enforcement of Building Bye Laws and codes Climate Cell in Urban Directorate Introduction of E-Governances Institutional Mechanism(Geotechnical Laboratory, Panchayati Raj etc)) Official or informal energy building codes Collaboration with insurance providers Capacity Building Programme Municipal officials, Local urban bodies Involvement of NGO, community, groups and social organizations for inducing awareness in people. Urban Floods (Particular mention by Jammu Cleaning of drainage and waterways & Kashmir, Manipur and Meghalaya) Removal of encroachment, Strict regulation of urban land use in the valley Urban embankment, dams and other water structures Construction storm water drain Geo-textile fabric tube technology for enduring protection against floods and erosion Policy incentive for use of permeable surfaces Flood forecasting arrangements Urban Transport Encouragement use of bicycles and walking for short trips; Pedestrianism Mass urban transport /Bus Rapid Transit system C.N.G Buses / Biofuel / Energy Efficient Vehicle Metro Cable System/Mono Rail/Rope Way Pay & Use rental 2 & 4 Wheelers for Tourist Energy labeling with fuel efficiency standards for vehicles Linking medium & small town throuhj Efficient and convenient public transport in tourist season Solar PV or other electric vehicle charging system Phase-out of older vehicles Road (Improving traffic conditions, reducing journey time, and Safety) Construction of water drain Pedestrian Path , Subways, Street fixtures Car Parking Restrictions, Multi-story Car parks, and Bus/Truck Terminals Road widening Restoring Green Cover Avenue Plantations Green patches & Plantations Recreational Forsetry Sewerage & Water discharge Construction of drain, sewerage line Solid Waste & Waste Water (Recycling and Reus Decentralized waste treatment & disposal Water Supply Improved infrastructure, augmentation and efficiency improvements Manure & Energy Production Rain Water Harvesting Cleaning/conservation/beautification of water bodies in urban limits Constitution of Water Use Societies Energy Power from waste & landfills gases Green Building Solar Passive Building Solar Water Heater Energy efficient devices in Lightening Switching to alternative energy sources for existing operations 34 Climate Change Adaptation&Disaster Risk Reduction in Himalayan Region Governance and Institutional Framework Planning & Management Urban information system & Mapping Urban database, monitoring and management Restricting super markets and malls including vegetable markets to come up in and around the Core Business District (CBD) Master Plan / Zone Plan Green City/Green Building Incorporation of the Smart Cities Concept Land Use Assignment Zoning Plan Microzonation and risk assessment of the landslide affected areas Pozzolanas in concrete production Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxx NMSHE is to link-up the research efforts of these missions and institutions by identifying research priorities and coordinating efforts of various knowledge institutions. DST also plans to involve other research organizations and NGOs to achieve the goals of NMSHE. NGOs could play the role of educating people and facilitating mitigation and adaptation activities at local level. National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning, the plan calls for: • Extending the existing Conservation Building Energy Code; • A greater emphasis on urban waste management and recycling, including power production from waste; • Strengthening the enforcement of automotive fuel economy standards and using pricing measures to encourage the purchase of efficient vehicles; and • Incentives for of public the use transportation. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling, and increased international collaboration. It 35 also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds. National Solar Mission: The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossilbased energy options. The plan includes: • Specific goals for increasing use of solar thermal technologies in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments; • A goal of increasing production of photovoltaics to 1000 MW/year; and • A goal of deploying at least 1000 MW of solar thermal power generation. Other objectives include the establishment of a solar research center, increased international collaboration on technology development, strengthening of domestic manufacturing capacity, and increased government funding and international support. Solar Mission focuses on promoting offgrid systems including hybrid systems to meet / supplement power, heating and cooling energy requirements. In Himalayan (Special Category) the Central Financial Assistance upto 70% may be provided. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Current initiatives are expected Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation UN-HABITATS Other Players: e.g., USAID Cities and Climate Change Initiative (CCCI) Enhancement in preparedness and mitigation activities of cities (Developing and Least Developed Countries. Tools •Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM) •National Mission on Sustainable Habitat •National Urban Livelihoods Mission •National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem Resources: Finance, Knowledge, Technical Capability, Institutional resources, tools Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation Ministry of Science & Technology Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change Policies & Programmes State Action Plan Resources Mobilization Prepar edness National Disaster Management Authority Acts & Resources Local Urban Bodies Citizens Adaptation Risk Cover Capacity Building Departments: Urban Development, Transport & Road, Water & Sanitation Electricity, Energy, Forest, Irrigation, etc. National Urban Housing & Habitat Policy National Urban Sanitation Policy Global Knowledge •National Institute of Urban Affairs •National Institute National of Disaster Management •School of Urban Planning & Architecture •Central Road Research Institute •wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology State •G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & Development •Universities Local •.................. Framework for Climate Change mitigation for Urban Areas of the Himalayan to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012. Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001, the plan recommends: from 23% to 33% of India’s territory. • Mandating specific energy consumption decreases in large energy-consuming industries, with a system for companies to trade energy-savings certificates; National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices. • Energy incentives, including reduced taxes on energy-efficient appliances; and OTHER PROGRAMS • Financing for public-private partnerships to reduce energy consumption through demand-side management programs in the municipal, buildings and agricultural sectors. National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures. National Mission for a “Green India”: Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover The NAPCC also describes other ongoing initiatives, including: Power Generation: The government is mandating the retirement of inefficient coal-fired power plants and supporting the research and development of IGCC and supercritical technologies. Renewable Energy: Under the Electricity Act 2003 and the National Tariff Policy 2006, the central and the state electricity regulatory commissions must purchase a certain percentage of gridbased power from renewable sources. Energy 36 Efficiency: Under the Energy Climate Change Adaptation&Disaster Risk Reduction in Himalayan Region Governance and Institutional Framework Climate Change •Warming •More Extreme Events (heavy precipitation & heat waves, Intensified droughts) •Shifts in weather timing •More temperature rise in winter and in night Other Stresses •Pollution •Intensified Consumerism •In-Migration: Rapid shift from rural to urban areas Himalayan Urban System •Highly vulnerable to disasters, with intense and lasting impacts •Prone to cut-off in case of natural calamities •Generally small and congested with high percentages of built up areas within premises •Little space, left for walking, which was the sole mode of transport originally •Tourism an integral part in most cities •Presence of original forests in hill stations •Urban ‘out-growths’ in rural areas •Greater dependence on ecosystem services •Poor mechanism of waste disposal Likely Consequences •Increased Energy Demand (Cooling) an added need & Water needs •Increased hazards (landslides, floods and related diseases) •Disruption in Connectivity •Communication Failure & Chaos •New Diseases •Increased Run off & Reduced Infiltration Likely Adaptations •Main-streaming of climate change in Governance, Institution and Capacity building •New Planned cities - A paradigm shift? •Water Conservation & management - Recycling? •Construction and maintenance of natural/artificial drainage system •Hazard area mapping and Zonation, and detailed Disaster Mitigation plan •Additional/Alternate routes to urban areas •Cooling devices for houses during summer •An elaborate warning system in place climate change issues directly or indirectly connected to urban areas including regulation, urban transport, restoration of green cover, sewage and waste treatment, water supply, urban floods, energy, planning and capacity building of municipal officials and other urban bodies. In their general structure, the SAPs of Indian Himalayan States are largely similar. However, state-specific proposals have not been clearly outlined, except in one or two areas. For example, Jammu & Kashmir, Manipur and Meghalaya have given importance to managing urban floods. The SAP of Jammu and Kashmir has covered several aspects of urban floods, indicating that the state government was aware of the need for adaptation to deal with extreme climatic events. SAPs do not throw much light on inter-city, and intra-city variations that charecterise the IHS. The problems of the poorest who have the least capacity to deal with climate change, living in informal settlements often on land legally not their own, have also not been adegnately addressed. Climate Change Framework for Mountain Urban Areas Conservation Act 2001, large energyconsuming industries are required to undertake energy audits and an energy labeling program for appliances has been introduced. State Climate Change Action Plans Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Govt. of India is also playing a proactive role in the area of climate change and discharging principal role in global and regional climate change negotiations has encouraged each state to prepare a State Climate Change Action Plan. Indian Himalayan States, in their respective State Action Plans (SAP) have considered many 37 SAPs are weak in social aspects, with technological aspects dominating the thought process. For instance walking was initially one of the most prominent means of mobility in mountain cities. Walkways have been severely compromised in recent years because of the increase in vehicular traffic. This shift, from ‘cities meant for walking’ to ‘cities meant for heavy vehicular traffic’ on congested roads has Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation been far more rapid and chaotic in IHS than it has been in the urban areas in plains. The action plans of some states have referred to the provision of walking lanes. However, they hardly address the ways and means to create such walking lanes in land-scarce mountain cities. In many cities roads are so congested that safe walking passage is only possible through a vertical separation of pedestrians from cars and motors. The SAPs do not address the present state of municipalities and other local bodies. Generally, these bodies are financially weak and depend considerably on state government grants for making ends meet. Many important urban services, such as power and water supplies are beyond their control. The state officers in municipalities do not have a cadre; individuals serving in municipalities cannot make a career based on the basis of experience and performance in urban management. Elected bodies have lost capacity to manage urban systems since over a long time they have been depending on the state governments for funding and expertise. The systems and functioning of municipalities are far removed from those required to deal with the problems of climate change. In many places they have deteriorated over the years. From the SAPs, one gets the impression that they were prepared in response to a request from DST, rather than proactively. They have not dwelled on how funds would be raised, and efforts that would be required to achieve goals, given the limited capacity of local bodies. The gap between the existing state of affairs in municipalities and the proposals listed in state action plans clearly shows that states do not have capacity, as yet to take up the proposed activities effectively. A review of mitigation and adaptation strategies of cities reveals that climate change is in many cases either absent, or insufficiently linked, to the discourse on overall sustainable urban development. Climate change adaptation strategies in many cases create an impression of being detached from other on-going discourses, or even outside the institutional entities usually dealing with issues related to sustainable urban development. Additionally, it has been found that the Disaster Risk Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation efforts operate independent of each other. Synergies between them have not been well-established, even with their common goal to reduce the impact of extreme events and increasing urban resilience. Both these functions are generally housed in different Departments or Ministries with fragmented roles and responsibilities. Also, better land use planning and improved building code, proposed as key adaptation measures, do not often sufficiently match the reality because of existence of informal social mechanisms of land management in India. The probability of finding win-win solutions, for sustainable urbanization, is low, and trade-offs between conflicting goals are more common. DISASTER RELIEF RESPONSE APPARATUS: CURRENT STATUS At present, National Disaster Response Force consists of ten battalions, three each from the BSF and CRPF and two each from CISF and ITBP. Each battalion has 18 self-contained specialist search and rescue teams of 45 personnel each including engineers, technicians, electricians, dog squads and medical/paramedics. The total strength of each battalion is 1,149. Union cabinet has also approved the conversion/up-gradation of 02 Bns from SSB. All the ten battalions have been equipped and trained to respond natural as well as man-made disasters. Four battalions of them are also trained and equipped for response during chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) emergencies. These NDRF battalions are located at ten different locations in the country (see map) based on the vulnerability profile of country and to cut 38 Climate Change Adaptation&Disaster Risk Reduction in Himalayan Region Governance and Institutional Framework down the response time for their deployment at disaster site. It is indeed surprising that no NDRF battalion is based in any of the states in the IHR despite the Himalayan belt being once of the most vulnerable as recent events in J&K, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Sikkim have more than amply indicated. It has been advocated that each state be mandated to designate a specified number of battalions of state police/state armed police as State Disaster Relief Force (SDRF) in order to have one SDRF self contained team (as is the case with NDRF) in each district of the state. SDRF companies so deployed can act as force multipliers for NDRF in case of need by serving as first responders and also assisting NDRF’s operations being more familiar with local conditions. 39 Many states have already begun to take steps in this direction. Uttarakhand Government has decided to raise a battalion of the State Disaster Response Force on the lines of the National Disaster Response Force. One company each of the SDRF would be stationed at Rudraprayag, Joshimath, Bageshwar and Champawat. The personnel would be trained by the NDRF to act swiftly during natural calamities like floods, landslides and earthquakes. J&K Government has designated two Battalions of Auxiliary Police were converted as Jammu & Kashmir State Disaster Response Force (SDRF).Himachal Pradesh has decided to have its own State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), to be based at Pandoh (Mandi) to reduce dependence on NDRF battalion located in Bathinda. Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation An Urbanising Indian Himalayan Region Administrative and Governance Challenges H imalayan cities are growing at a rate much faster than cities in the rest of the country. Urban population growth in conjunction with higher incomes has given an upward push to demand for basic urban management deliverables like solid waste disposal, sewage treatment, potable water, mobility and affordable housing. In the business as usual scenario and the state of municipal governance in India, the gap between requirement and availability of urban infrastructure can only be expected to widen with time. Figures specifically for the Indian Himalayan States are not readily available. One can consider recent reports that tell that India spends $17 per capita per year on urban infrastructure, against a benchmark requirement of $100. Himalayan situation is definitely worse than this. This puts the investment required for building urban infrastructure in India, over the next 20 years, at US$ 1 trillion. The general and generic ills that plague Indian urban sector applies to Indian Himalayan region in equal potency with added constraints of limited land and limited financial and human resources. Urban development is a field with myriad dimensions and sub-dimensions. Immediate priorities that need to be addressed by way of proactive and focused political dialogue to find meaningful solutions before it is too late for these cities to recover from the clutter and mess that characterizes them at present are: INCLUSIVE CITIES Cities attract migration from surrounding and even distant regions to fulfill manpower needs of various sectors of economic and administrative establishment that emerges. It is a hard fact that urban planning agencies more often than not devote their limited capacities, and resources, to cater to the needs of upper crust of expanding population with the poor often getting left out only to inhabit “informal settlements” or slums. This indeed is the default pattern of growth of most Indian cities, including those in the Indian Himalayan States. The urban poor provide services and manpower without which a city cannot function and in order to ensure that a city acquires its potential it is essential that its developmental process encompasses the needs of all, rather than just a few sections of its population. It is now understood that density management regulations only raise the cost of the most expensive resource, the land. This also results in urban sprawls raising the cost of delivery of various services. When it comes to the Himalayan cities, land is an even more critical constraint due to topographic constraints limiting the scope of expanding into the country side, a luxury normally available to cities in the plains. Result is ribbon growth along transportation corridors having the same impact as the development of an urban sprawl. 40 An Urbanising Indian Himalayan Region Administrative and Governance Challenges Municipal building bye-laws give a fixed framework to the city planners with very little leverage for deviations in determining land use. This only makes the task of accommodating the poor into the city without violating legal provisions that much harder triggering emergence of slums invariably hinging on a bureaucratic-politician nexus. Apart from being vulnerable due to illegality in terms of title to the land, the cost of services to the poor in informal settlements is always higher than the same for the well off in planned areas of the city. The grip of bureaucratic-political nexus in rather chaotic Indian cities can be largely traced up to extremely inflexible building regulations and byelaws. This scenario, apart from drastically affecting livability of a city, also seriously impairs the productivity of a large segment of urban population reducing the availability of resources required to improve lives and enhance output so critically needed by the urban economy. URBAN GOVERNANCE It is estimated that many Indian cities will be bigger than many individual nation states by year 2030. Himalayan cities cannot be expected to stay untouched from this relentless and unsparing march of urbanization. In fact they represent the most challenging fringe of India’s urban situation. This makes a thorough overhaul of India’s urban governance a national imperative. Devolution of power and responsibilities from the states to the local and metropolitan bodies according to the 74th Amendment still continues to be tardy due to unwillingness of state governments to loosen their control over city governance. India’s current urban governance model is a legacy not in sync with requirements of an emerging economic super power. Like in large cities elsewhere in the world, Indian cities, including those in the IHR will benefit from having empowered mayors with long tenures and clear accountability for the city’s growth, improvement and performance. With increasingly larger number of cities growing or threatening to grow beyond municipal boundaries, having fully formed metropolitan authorities with clearly defined roles will be essential for the successful FUNCTIONS WHICH MAY BE ENTRUSTED TO URBAN LOCAL BODIES BY THE STATE GOVERNMENT ON PER THE 12TH SCHEDULE • • • • • • • • • Urban planning including town planning. Regulation of land-use and construction of buildings. Planning for economic and social development. Roads and bridges. Water supply for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. Public health, sanitation conservancy and solid waste management. Fire services. Urban forestry, protection of the environment and promotion of ecological aspects. Safeguarding the interests of weaker sections of society, including the handicapped and mentally retarded. • • • • • • • • • 41 Slum improvement and upgradation. Urban poverty alleviation. Provision of urban amenities and facilities such as parks, gardens, playgrounds. Promotion of cultural, educational and aesthetic aspects. Burials and burial grounds; cremations, cremation grounds and electric crematoriums. Cattle pounds; prevention of cruelty to animals. Vital statistics including registration of births and deaths. Public amenities including street lighting, parking lots, bus stops and public conveniences. Regulation of slaughter houses and tanneries. Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation management of large cities in India. This is equally important for Himalayan cities with comparative scaled population thresholds. Emergence of clusters like Kullu-Manali, Nainital-Ranikhet-Almora, Solan-BarogDharampur, Darjeeling-Kurseong, SrinagarGandebal-Sonamarg and other similar stretches with near continuous development along national highways is indicative of the inability of the urban planning systems to look and think beyond municipal boundaries while planning urban development in the Himalayas. Although Shimla Municipal Corporation has quite belatedly prohibited anyconstruction on slopes steeper than 45 degrees, the damage has already been done. Asper one estimate, some 90 percent of central Shimla is built on a 60 degrees slope, an is covered with buildings which are four to five storeys high. In the event of an earth tremor, devastation could be enormous with buildings on slopes steeper than 45 degrees prone to serious damage. Notably, Shimla accounts for over 25% of Hinachal Pradesh’s total urban population. (Teotia). Situation across other Himalayan cities is not much different. LANDUSE PLANNING AND ZONATION The Himalayan region brings out most starkly the inter-dependence of man and the environment. Acute variations in terrain, gradient and geology makes the role of landuse planning and zonation more critical than anywhere else as its success or failure determines the vulnerability of populations in times of frequent extreme weather events. However, generally sub-optimal local administrative set-ups are not really capable of scientific land-use planning. Even if it happens somewhere as an exception, the same is undone by poor enforcement. Haphazardly developed and built urban habitats in the mountains not only endanger those who live in such neighbourhoods, but also degrade the ambient beauty and charm of an otherwise picturesque geography. In most instances, urban administrators do not accord Urban Planning the centrality and prominence it must have as a function for developing and absorbing the long term perspective that is essential for holistic and futuristic urban development and management. CAPACITY BUILDING IN URBAN LOCAL BODIES Urban development being essentially a multidisciplinary and integrative exercise requires a real step-up in the capabilities and expertise of urban local bodies across India. This is especially true for Himalayan cities that fail to attract/retain talented human resources in almost all sectors. Capacity gaps in urban local bodies as they exist today, unless addressed, will not allow Himalayan cities to benefit from devolution of powers as being argued at various levels and improve service delivery. Reforms of urban governance will have to preemptively address the problem of massive shortage of professionals required for urban management functions. This mandates more and increasingly deeper involvement of private and social sector organizations that can help meet the capacity gaps, even if only partially to begin with, while the government agencies work towards building technical and managerial depths of city administrations. In this context, it is necessary to create an Shortfall in the own revenues of Shimla Municipal Corporation Particulars 1999-01 (Rs in crores) 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 Recommended by the FSFC 5.52 6.18 6.92 7.75 2000-01 8.68 Actual Income 4.89 4.77 5.1 6.58 7.39 Shortfall 0.63 1.41 1.82 1.17 1.29 Source: xxxxxxxx 42 An Urbanising Indian Himalayan Region Administrative and Governance Challenges charges that reflect costs, debt and publicprivate partnerships (PPPs) and central/state government funding. equivalent cadre for cities, or the municipal cadre, while also pro-actively creating new avenues to allow for enhanced levels of lateral entry of talent into city management agencies from the private-sector as per need. Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) need to be facilitated to generate resources to undertake infrastructure projects. While the mobilisation through own tax and non-tax revenues by the ULBs need to be strengthened, as stated before, there is a need to facilitate mobilisation of borrowings as well, to bridge the gaps in the public infrastructure such as water supply, roads and public transport. ULBs need to be enabled and helped to raise resources through banks and other financial institutions as also by floating municipal bonds. Some of the State Finance Commissions have made many useful recommendations for the purpose2. Smaller ULBs could be facilitated to go in for pooled financing, as individually they may not qualify for partaking market borrowings. Efforts made by the states of Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha in this direction, needs to be taken note of to devise the way forward. FINANCING For a city administration to be strong enough to pursue its priorities, it has to have a significant, even if not total control over the flow of financial resources needed to perform its current functions and futuristic planning. A recent study (2013) by Asian Development Bank has stated that while the all India average for own revenues mobilised by the municipalities (2007-08) was Rs. 757, for Himachal Pradesh it was Rs. 595 and for Jammu & Kashmir Rs. 90. While data for other IHS was not stated, it can be safely assumed that their performance would be no better. This makes it necessary that current dependence of city administrations on the central and state Governments is reduced by providing adequate leeway to create independent sources of revenue for the city management and development functions. The options include Monetizing land assets; higher collection of property taxes, user This is not to suggest that internal funding will suffice for cities as this is not the case anywhere, even in large cities. State and Central Governments have a critical role in facilitating Slum Population in Indian Himalayan Region Number of State/ Union territory# INDIA Towns Type wise Slum Population Statutory towns Slum reported towns Total Population Notified slums Recognised slums Identified slums 4041 2,613 6,54,94,604 2,25,35,133 2,01,31,336 2,28,28,135 Jammu & Kashmir 86 40 6,62,062 1,62,909 1,36,649 3,62,504 Himachal Pradesh 56 22 61,312 60,201 0 1,111 Uttarakhand 74 31 4,87,741 1,85,832 52,278 2,49,631 Sikkim 8 7 31,378 31,378 0 0 Arunachal Pradesh 26 5 15,562 0 0 15,562 Nagaland 19 11 82,324 0 48,249 34,075 Manipur 28 0 0 0 0 0 Mizoram 23 1 78,561 0 78,561 0 Tripura 16 15 1,39,780 0 1,24,036 15,744 Meghalaya 10 6 57,418 34,699 8,006 14,713 272 107 1128697 289187 395501 428996 Nepal Bhutan Total Source: Census of India 2011 43 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation development of cities (for example through schemes such as JNNURM and Rajiv Awas Yojana) but eventually city financing model in India needs to move towards a systematic formula rather than ad-hoc grants. CAPACITY BUILDING IN URBAN LOCAL BODIES Urban development being essentially a multidisciplinary and integrative exercise requires a real step-up in the capabilities and expertise of urban local bodies across India. This is especially true for Himalayan cities that fail to attract/retain talented human resources in almost all sectors. Capacity gaps in urban local bodies as they exist today, unless addressed, will not allow Himalayan cities to benefit from devolution of powers as being argued at various levels and improve service delivery. Reforms of urban governance will have to preemptively address the problem of massive shortage of professionals required for urban management functions, This mandates more and increasingly deeper involvement of private and social sector organizations that can help meet the capacity gaps, even if only partially to begin with while the government agencies work towards building technical and managerial depths of city administrations. In this context, it is necessary to create an equivalent cadre for cities, or the municipal cadre, while also pro-actively creating new avenues to allow for lateral entry of talent from the private-sector as per need. AFFORDABLE HOUSING As mentioned earlier urban planning and development in India has been focused on the affluent/middle classes leaving out the poor to fend for themselves in informal illegal settlements, as if they were never expected to live in the cities in the first place. The large proportion of Indian urban population forced to live in slums is a reflection of this planning shortfall and lop-sided charter of priorities so far as urban planning is concerned. Affordable housing is a critical deliverable of the day to make cities more equitable and inclusive through a set of policies and incentives that bridge the affordability gap and encourage government housing agencies as well as private developers to focus on low income housing and rental housing. The cities of the Himalayas are growing and witnessing the same rot as Indian cities in the plains, from mountains of trash, untreated sewage, chronic water shortages unplanned urban growth and air pollution due to growing number of vehicles. While many aspects of governance reforms required are valid for the IHS as much as for any other state, the Himalayan States require something more, keeping in view the unique geographical features and habitation patterns. In the Himalayan region, where cities vary widely in micro-climate because of altitudinal and other topographical differences, a top down approach is unlikely to work. To deal with global climate change scenario, both inter-town and intra-town variations must be captured and local people and local knowledge incorporated in formulation and execution of plans aimed at climate change adaptation and disaster management and response. It is also important to recognize that cities in the IHR do not have the luxury of unlimited supply of land to grow into surrounding regions like cities and the plains can, and mostly do. Forest regulations, limited water availability and topographical barriers also restrict size of cities in the Himalayas. This makes it imperative that planners urgently look at possibilities at new greenfield urban centers to attract a significant part of the expected future growth in IHR’s urban population away from its existing overburdened cities that are indeed bursting at the seams. Of the 100 smart cities planned by the Govt. of India as highlighted in recent pronouncements, it is perhaps necessary to ensure that IHS gets to develop a fair share of the same, if not more than a fair share, given the special and critical situation that they are in. 44 Way Forward I ndian Himalayan Region is under a phase of rapid transformation of their its natural landscape and demographic profile due to economic development and resultant rural urban migration. Urban expansion has emerged as a key driver of socio-economic and environmental change in the Indian Himalayan region broadly aligned the general scenario in the Indian subcontinent which is experiencing rapid urban growth but without a matching focus of policy makers on accommodating the migrating millions into planned urban development and expansion. Their location abutting glacial melt pathways or on steep slopes in an even otherwise ecologically fragile and environmentally sensitive landscape makes Himalayan cities particularly susceptible to consequences of climate change, manifested with increasing frequency by natural disasters leading to serious loss of life and property. Events experiences in Leh(2012), Kedarnath (2013) and Srinagar (2014) are only high intensity symptoms and consequences of creeping specter of climate change that threatens to take Himalayan cities, quite literally, to the edge of a precipice if urgent remedial action is not initiated. For Himalayan cities to secure the future of their current and future residents and harvest the full potential of urbanization for their state, they need to address climate change adaptation as an issue squarely to take steps, short term as well as long term, in a mission mode. Avoidance/mitigation of climate change induced disasters while also strengthening capabilities to deal with natural disasters as and when they happen, as they will, despite best efforts, is equally important. Urban development is always a work in progress. Making Himalayan cities climate 45 resilient and disaster prepared will have to have a two pronged approach. On one hand we have to address the excesses of the past, on the other hand we have to ensure that future urban expansion complies with urban planning norms associated with climate change and disaster management concerns. While cities are a multi-dimensional entity and most decisions about any one part have a cascading and onward impact on other aspects city ‘s management the areas that warrant attention from the perspective climate induced geo-hydrological setbacks can be clubbed as under: LANDUSE PLANNING AND BUILDING REGULATIONS Climate change has stressed urban ecosystems by increasing the frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. Natural risks of this unplanned and rapid urban-growth are clearly discernible in recent natural disasters in Uttarakhand. Jammu and Kashmir and Nepal with high casualty and fatality numbers in addition to serious loss of livelihoods and property. It is hence critical that climate and disaster resilience be considered a key deliverable of local urban development planning. Availability of satellite imagery based geospatial maps, not only in open market such as the Google Maps, but also through the Bhuvan repository developed by the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) at the behest of the MoUD under the NationalUrban Information System Scheme (NUIS) makes it possible to undertake preparation of the Land-use Plans much less time and money consuming, besides brining in greater accuracy and transparency in the procedure. Such Plans Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation ought to have sectoral components such as for drainage, mobility, water supply, solid waste and sewage management, habitation, commerce & economic activities, housing etc. These plans would need to be given a legal status by notifying under the Town & Country Planning Act and other relevant State laws. • Development of city development plans in consideration of disaster proneness of landscape to steer future growth away from hazardous, low lying areas. • Strict enforcement of zoning regulations and making zoning violations as non-compoundable, non-bailable offences. The IHS cities and villages have gradually started getting besotted with multilevel buildings with little care for the surrounding areas. Because of difficult terrain, not many areas are safe for house construction in our mountain cities. Houses, are often constructed on steep and unstable slopes, and in areas prone to earthquakes, landslides and floods. For urban planning and management microzoning (identification of areas having different risk potentials of hazards) and micro-level planning are the first and important steps in reducing disaster threats in the mountains. Micro-zoning based planning (seismic or other type) has been done for various towns but zoning regulations are not adequate in the states and enforcement of law remains in question. • Identification of building already existing on slopes and development of plan to relocate them in a phased manner wherever unavoidable. Norms for smart building designs, with features of physical and environmental sustainability, need to evolved and propagated. Such buildings should be disaster-resilient, energy efficient, rainwater harvesting compliant and accessible to the physically challenged. The Building Byelaws and the Development Control Regulations of the Municipalities, Panchayats and the Planning/Development Authorities need to be reviewed by a multi-disciplinary team of experts, to ensure that the Smart Buildings norms get grounded in the next six months. Suggested Steps: • Development of GIS based maps outlining hazard zones of various intensity levels. • Complete ban on any development in flood plains of rivers and natural routes taken by water in case of higher than normal precipitation. TRANSPORT The IHS, like many of the remaining States, face acute shortage of public transport systems, leading to growth of private automobiles. Growing prosperity of country’s population at large also prompts increasing numbers of to visit IHS region as tourists. Due to poor air connectivy, absence of rail links and general shortage of high quality road transport, most of the visitors use personal or hired cars for their visits, contributing to traffic congestion and air pollution. This is quite evident in the snarls and traffic congestion that is the hallmark of mountain towns. Haphazard parking and resultant overflow pedestrian onto the roads to further slows down movement of traffic. It is necessary to address mobility challenges in Himalayan cities not only for the sake of reducing emissions but also for restoring the very livability and long lost quaint appeal of these cities. An efficient public transport system comprising of buses, walkways, footpaths and cable cars is needed for not only easing the burden of urban commuting but also to discourage tourist arrivals on private vehicles. Indeed the cost of providing transportation infrastructure in mountain cities is much higher than providing the same in the plains for obvious reasons. However, given the rapid growth of urban population in IHS and situation that already exists these cannot avoided be anymore. 46 Way forward governance in rapidly urbanizing high mountains. The administrative arrangements for various regions of the IHS, including those mandated under the Disaster Management Act 2005, to prepare effective Disaster Management Plans would need strengthening through periodic reviews and monitoring, with a view to mitigating the adverse impact of disasters. Suggested Steps: • The introduction of public buses in the IHS Cities under the JNNURM in 2013 has helped bring about a welcome change in the situation but more needs to be done to promote bus based public transport systems, for intra-city and inter-city travel. • Cable cars also need to be promoted as a means of public transport, besides for the tourists. • • Development of future oriented mobility plan each city including peri-urban areas to determine and provide optimal transport solutions with plans for transit-oriented development of the impact zones. In fact for the smaller IHS, Mobility Plan may be prepared for the whole State, to provide sustainable transport solutions inter- connecting the habitats, as also for intercity movements. While a District level Coordination Team headed by the District Collector are essential, it would be equally necessary to equip the Municipalities and Panchayats to imbibe the nuances of disaster prevention and management in their day-to-day activities. Awareness and preparedness campaigns are key components of proactive approach on Disaster Management. Unbridled usage of automobiles makes walking an increasingly difficult choice for the residents as well the visiting tourists. Point to point surface/elevated walkways integrated with escalators and cable cars on sloppy terrain are needed to make walking easy and preferable mode by shortening distances as well as reduce vehicular load on ciity’s roads and environment. • Develop parking facilities for incoming tourists in peripheral areas, promote park and ride tourism and ban parking of vehicles on metaled roads as also suggested by National Green Tribunal in a recently in the context of some congested parts of Delhi. • Declare city core as no vehicle zone for a progressively increasing number of days each week (as in The Mall in Simla). • Introducing greater synergy and coordination among the field agencies and also to deploy the modern technology based solutions to prepare for prevention of disasters and for quick restoration of normal life and infrastructure post any disaster is an imperative. In case of any disaster, the local population is the actual first responder. It will always take some time for other tiers of administration to mobilise/launch rescue efforts. Sensitisation of local people about the precautions and preventive actions to be taken in case of any calamity, is of Critical Significance to ensure that the loss of life and damage to property is drastically reduced. . Suggested Steps: Develop bypasses to divert through traffic to create more space for pedestrian infrastructure (as done for Kullu in HP). • Regulate tourist influx based on carrying capacity of high footfall spots on pilgrimage circuits. • Charge tourist vehicles entering municipal limits to recover full cost of municipal infrastructure and services required in all tourism towns. This can also be a means to discourage use of private vehicles by inbound tourists. • Do a comprehensive hazard zone mapping DISASTER RISK MITIGATION AND RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS It is necessary to mainstream disaster resilience into local urban development planning and its institutionalization through adaptive 47 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation of all settlements classified as towns and above, to guide urban expansion away from areas prone to be adversely impacted in case of extreme meteorological and geo hydrological events. • Strictly enforce building activity regulations in hazard zones identified through scientific mapping to minimize disaster risk emanating from climate change induced natural disasters. • Strengthen technical infrastructure monitoring of glacial lakes and river flow patterns to feed into early warning systems. • Create awareness amongst local populations on appropriate response to disaster situations and acting in a manner that facilitates the work of relief agencies. • Develop atleast one alternative access land route to all major urban settlements to create required levels of redundancy which is essential for maintaining supply lines and move equipment and essembial supplies during times of need. • Create staging structures configured to facilitate airlift/airdrop supplies and humans by helicopters in areas prone to flooding (a la Srinagar where sloping roof of all structures in submerged zone left pilots searching for that surfaces places to drop supplies as all buildings have sloping roofs). • Create disaster relief stations at intermittent locations with required earth moving and other equipment to deliver quick response in case of landslides. • Gear up disaster relief agencies to handle residents as well as tourists at the same time in view of the fact that popular hill towns often have visitors numbers that are a multiple of their permanent local population. • Establish State Disaster Relief Force units in hazard prone districts to supplement NDRF and other central agencies in times of need. ENERGY MIX AND CONSERVATION Energy use in a typical Himalayan city is function of economic prosperity, altitude and population. As mentioned elsewhere, Himalayan cities witness seasonal surges in population due to tourism. Himalayas are well endowed with renewable source of energy in terms of hydel power potential. Most of the electricity comsumed in Himalayan belt inevitably comes from hydel power plants on various rivers (Jhelum, Beas, Ganga, Yamuna, Sharada, Teesta, Brahmaputra, Kosi, Sutlej, Shyok, Suru, Parbati…….) to name a few. Hydel power is a major export of hilly states which are mostly, with the exception of Jammu and Kashmir, power surplus states. In fact, power genertion in Himalayan Hydel power plants help states in plain avoid, to the extent possible, the polluting thermal energy. Notwithstanding the fact the full hydel power potential of Himalayan states there is significant untapped potential to harness renewable energy (solar, wind, bio and geo-thermal) sources in the Himalayan belt. Better utilization of renewable energy sources other than hydel power, will not only supplement hydel power generation but will also help reduce pressure on fuelwood, the major cause of forest destruction around urban centers and along pilgrimage circuit routes. In an urban context, it is a fact that Himalayan cities are major centers for fuelwood demand for heating, and cooking purposes. This has led to serious degradation of forests in the periphery of most Himalayan cities, which not only exacerbates the heat island effect but also compromises water security by adversely impacting rivulets and springs that need green cover to stay in circulation. It will be advisable to enforce a strict ban on use of fuelwood by commercial enterprises while ensuring reliable availability of cleaner fuels like LPG/PNG, beginning with large cities in order to prioritize. Incentives to encourage use of Solar Power are already in place in many states which need to aggressively promoted in a mission mode for households/hotels for water heating 48 Way forward needs. Biomass based fuel briquettes are a viable substitute for coal, a resource largely imported from the plains. Research needs to be amplified to mainstream use of pine needles, within sustainable limits, in production of fuel briquettes for use in urban/rural households. The IHS region abounds in the potential for harnessing the Non Conventional & Renewable Energy (NRE) Sources. The fact of the numerous rivers having origin in the region coupled with the hugely undulating terrain through which these rivers flow, makes it abundantly feasible to of in far water based NREs. The large availability of sunlight and winds with good speed for good part of the year provides ample opportunities for harnessing solar and wind energy. On the demand side, the scattered habitation pattern makes it eminently desirable to adopt the NRE sources for meeting the energy needs of the people not only for the households but also for the micro, small and the medium economic enterprises including 49 in the manufacturing sector. Combination of hydel, solar, geothermal and biogas energy has the potential to make urban settlements in IHS carbon neutral, if not carbon negative, in a short span of time. However, any efforts for exploitation of the NRE sources in the IHS would need to be dovetailed with the efforts for preservation and nurturing of the fragile ecology of the region. 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Report of the Fourth State Finance Commission, Himachal Pradesh, February, 2014. Valdiya KS and Bartarya SK. 1991. Hydrological studies of springs in the catchment of the Gaula River, Kumaun 53 Appendix Table A1. Municipal Corporation (cities with 1 Lakh and above population) in the Indian Himalayan States. Sr. No State & City Population (2011) JAMMU AND KASHMIR 1 2 Srinagar Jammu 1,273,312 951,373 HIMACHAL PRADESH 1 UTTARAKHAND 1 2 3 4 5 6 SIKKIM 1 MANIPUR 1 TRIPURA 1 Shimla 142,161 Dehradun Haldwani Hardwar Roorkee Kashipur Rudrapur 447,808 322,140 225,235 220,306 121,610 140,884 Gangtok 98,658 Imphal 250,234 Agartala 450,000 Table A2: Location of city/town & sources of water in few states of the Indian Himalayan region (source DS Rawat) Sr. No. Name Location A. Uttarakhand (Kumaun Region) Source of water 1 Almora Hill top Lifted water from river, springs, ground water 2 Rainkhet Hill slope Lifted water from river, springs 3 Dwarahat Valley Stream, springs, ground water 4 Bageshwar Valley River, stream, springs 5 Pithoragarh Hill slope Lifted water from river, springs, ground water 6 Dharchula Valley River, stream, springs 7 Berinag Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 8 Didihat Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 54 Appendix 9 Gangolihat Hill slope Lifted water from river, stream, springs 10 Munsiyari Hill slope Stream, springs 11 Askot Hill slope Stream, springs 12 Champawat Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 13 Lohaghat Hill slope Stream, springs 14 Nainital Hill slope Lake 15 Bhimtal Hill slope Springs, stream 16 Bhowali Hill slope Stream, springs 17 Mukteshwar Hill slope Springs B. Uttarakhand (Garhwal Region) 18 Gopeshwar Valley River, springs 19 Gauchar Valley Stream, springs 20 Karnaprayag Valley Stream, springs, river 21 Joshimath Hill slope Stream, springs 22 Tehri Hill slope Lifted water from river, springs 23 Chamba Hill slope Stream, springs 24 Narendra Nager Hill slope Stream, springs 25 Uttarkashi Valley Stream, springs, river 26 Srinagar Valley Stream, springs, river 27 Pauri Hill slope Stream, springs 28 Devprayag Valley Stream, springs, river 29 Chakrata Hill top Stream, springs 30 Mussoorie Hill top & slope Stream, springs 31 Kotdwar Foot hill Stream, ground water C. North-eastern Region 32 Shillong Hill slope Stream, springs 33 Gangtok Hill top Stream, springs 34 Itanagar Stream, springs D. Himachal Pradesh 35 Kullu Valley Stream, springs 36 Shimla Hill slope Lifted water from river, springs 37 Manali Hill top Lifted water from river, springs 38 Mandi valley Lifted water from river, springs, ground water 39 Palampur Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 40 Sundar Nagar Valley River/canal, spring 41 Hamirpur Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 42 Bilaspur Valley River, stream, springs 43 Solan Hill top Stream, springs, ground water 44 Nahan Hill slope Stream, springs, ground water 55 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand N ainital is a lake city and famous tourist destination situated in the catchment of Naini lake at the southern extremity of the Lesser Himalayan ranges in Kumaon division of Uttarakhand (Figure 1). The catchment is bounded in the north by the highest peak of the town - Naina Peak and its extension to Alma Peak and Sher Ka Danda Peak with progressive decline almost to the level of the lake (1938 m) near the eastern end of the lake. On the west the rugged hill of Deopatha rises to an altitude of more than 2435 m, while on the south the watershed is separated by the water divide of Ayarpatha hills which have the maximum height of 2274.1 m declining gradually towards the eastern end of the town. The eastern boundary of Nainital is formed by Balia stream which drains the excess water of lake during monsoon season, and is one of the important tributaries of Gaula river. The western end of the valley consists of a series of gentle undulations formed by the debris of the surrounding hills, whereas the eastern fringe is filled by Naini lake which gives its name to the city. The name ‘Naini’ thus derived by the ancient temple of that goddess Naina Devi now located at the north-western edge of the lake (Joshi et al. 1983). The town of Nainital is located at 29°24’ North latitude and 79°29’ East longitude and encompasses a geographical area of 14.32 km2 between 1938 m and 2611 m from the mean sea level in a east-west running Gagar Range. Nainital enjoys cold-humid climatic conditions which are governed by the summer monsoon. The summer precipitation accounts for 75% to 80% of the total annual rainfall, which normally ranges between 200 cm and 250 cm from June to September. The principal factors governing the climate of the town include the altitude, orography, and the outermost location in relation to abruptly rising rain-wearing winds. The 57 location of the town gives it a very high rainfall, the normal for the year being 2794 mm. The mean temperature varies between 8°C in January and 20°C in June (Joshi et al. 1983). It has been observed that in general the average annual rainfall as well as the number of rainy days have declined over the past hundred years (Tiwari 2014; Tiwari and Joshi 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015). Conforming to climatic conditions and altitude the natural vegetation around Nainital is very thick and comprises of many species of temperate evergreen types (Joshi and Pant 1990). However, during recent decade the forest and biodiversity around the town degraded and depleted steadily ad significantly mainly due to increasing anthropogenic impacts and land use intensifications in the catchment (Singh and Gopal 2002). Nainital is situated in the close proximity of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) that separates the Siwaliks hills situated in south from the Lesser Himalayan ranges extending in the north. Besides, MBT the town is crisscrossed by several other faults which make the geology of the watershed highly complex Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation growth of Nainital the real estate and tourism became thriving business. (Valdiya 1988). A major fault line, called the Nainital fault, passing through the Naini Lake separates the entire watershed into two parts (Figure 2). Geologically, Nainital hills form south-eastern terminus of the Krol belt sedimentaries, exposed in a number of structural basins in northwest Himalaya, constituting a succession of NagthatBlaini-InfraKrol-Krol and Tal Formations (Sharma 2006). The drainage network of the watershed is greatly influenced by geology and structural formation (Gupta and Uniyal 2013). The average slope in different areas of the watershed ranges between 1° and 55° (Rautela et al. 2014). Part of Naini Lake watershed and Nainital town is constituted by small micro-watershed of Sukhatal. Sukhatal is an ephemeral lake-let which holds water in its bed from its catchment. The water eventually finds its way through the shattered rocks of the fault zone and finally drains to Naini lake. The popularity and importance of town was further boosted with the installation of rail link to Kathgodam in 1884 and the formation of district Nainital in 1891. Nainital became the summer seat of the North Western Provinces (NWP). In 1915, Kathgodam – Nainital road (36 km) was completed, and also electric supply came to the town (Clay 1928). In the later half of nineteenth century Nainital witnessed a phenomenal growth in urban functions, and a range of facilities and services emerged to cater the growing needs of the town. A number of European schools for boys and girls came up in Nainital largely for the children of the British Colonial officials and soldiers, and Nainital became an important centre of education for the British (Joshi et al. 1983). The town enjoyed the status of the summer capital of Uttar Pradesh (UP) even after independence. After it was made the summer capital, a remarkable expansion of the town occurred. However, in 1963 the Government of Uttar Pradesh (UP) decided not to shift the State capital from Lucknow to Nainital during summer months. The Secretariat building now houses the High Court of Uttarakhand. DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT - A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE Nainital is the most recent town of Kumaon as it was discovered by Mr P. Barron a European merchant and an enthusiastic hunter in 1841. The habitation in Nainital started towards the end of the first half of the nineteenth century. According to the data available, Nainital had become a popular hill resort by 1847 with some 40 houses and buildings. With the Naini Lake is situated in a densely populated valley in the Kumaon Himalaya and is one of the most popular tourist resorts in Northern Principal Morphometric Attributes of Naini Lake Maximum Length (m) 1423 Breadth (m) 253-423 Maximum depth (m) 27.3 in Northern half and 25.5 in Southern half Mean depth (m) 18 Surface area (ha) 48 Lake shoreline (m) 3458 Volume at maximum level (m ) 3 8.58 Source: Rawat 1987 58 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand India. The picturesque surroundings of valley together with the panoramic beauty of natural lake, its proximity to plains in the south and salubrious climatic conditions were the main reasons that promoted the development of Nainital a famous health and recreation resort during the British time and afterwards (Joshi et al. 1983). Nainital is still one of the most popular tourist destination, and also an important town. Besides being the seat of High Court of Uttarakhand, house of district and sub-district administration and headquarters of Kumaon Division of Uttarakhand State and Kumaon University, it is also well known centre of good educational facilities and medical and other services. The Greater Nainital Development Authority (GNDA) was established in 1984 to regulate development of the town. In 1989, GNDA was dissolved and Nainital Lake Region Special Area Development Authority (NLRSADA) was established. The year 2000 saw the creation of Uttarakhand State and the setting up of the High Court of the State in Nainital. Nainital is still fast growing and one of the most heavily visited hill resorts on northern India. The surroundings of Naini Lake which were first inhabited in the 1850’s, grew into a town of 6903 people by 1901 and to 41461 by 2011(Table 2). The urban population growth, which is positively the bulk of the increase, has taken place after 1951. The town registered a moderate growth of 7.33% population during 2000-2011 aganist 29.49% of previous decade (Table 2). The decline of population growth during 2001 - 2011 is attributed to the establishment of the High Court of Uttarakhand in Nainital and consequent shifting of most of the government offices from Nainital to the growing township of Bhimtal. Being a major tourist destination and seat of the High Court of Uttarakhand State Nainital has a large floating population, particularly during summer months. The remarkable feature of the urban demographic evolution of Nainital is that before 1981 the population increased in only those areas which are characterized Population Growth in Nainital (1901 - 2011) Census Years Total Population Net Change 1901 6903 - 1911 10270 3367 % Change 48.77 1921 11235 965 9.38 1931 10673 -562 -5.02 1941 11718 1045 9.72 1951 13093 1375 11.73 1961 16080 2987 22.81 1971 25167 9087 56.51 1981 26093 926 3.67 1991 29831 3738 14.32 2001 38630 8799 29.49 2011 41461 2831 7.33 Source: Census of India, 2011 59 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation by gentle slope and lower altitude, such as Mallital Bazaar, Tallital Bazar, and Mall Road, and these areas were the main pockets of the concentration of population marked with very high population density. However after 1981 higher elevation areas, steep slope and fragile zone of Sher Ka Danda, Staff House, Balrampur House, Lower Sher Ka Danda, Shri Krishnapur and Stoneleigh Compound registered phenomenal growth of population. These areas have now also very high concentration and density of population. In 1981, Nainital had an average population density was 211.72 persons/ km2, which increased by over 55 times to 12148.30 in 2001. The highest density of 11541.93 persons/km2 was recorded in Staff House Ward and the lowest density of 632.35 persons/km2 in Narayan Nagar Ward. The main reasons for the increase in population and its density in Nainital have been the rapid development of tourism, growth of market, service and commercial sectors; and emergence of educational institutions in the town. The increased tourist arrival has not only an impact on the economy of the town, but it equally influenced its evolution and the functional morphology. Conforming to the needs of growing tourism, hotels, restaurants, parks, picnic spots, gardens, shopping centres, parking areas, facilities of recreation, tourist guidance, and transport now constitute important components of the morphology of the town (Joshi et al. 1983). SEASONAL DEMOGRAPHIC FLUX AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: As per the Census of India 2011 record Nainital had a total permanent population of 41461 persons. In addition to this, the town also hosts a large floating population of approximately 10000 persons during the peak tourist season from April to June who mostly work as petty vendors, coolies, boatmen, horsemen, waiters in hotels and restaurants. Nainital has been a tourist destination ever since it was discovered in the mid-nineteenth century. The war with Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 further boosted Nainital’s tourism industry as the Kashmir valley remained unofficially closed for tourist arrivals for the years till recently. During the late 1980’s tourist population were at the peak, but thereafter a sudden drop occurred. It may be suggested that the drop in tourist population in the early 1990’s occurred probably due to the opening up of other easily accessible and cheaper destinations in the surrounding hill districts of Kumaon and Garhwal, and also due to the extremely high population density, and considerable decline of water quality of the lake during the summer season. However, the tourist arrival started picking up in the following decades. In 2003, the floating population of Nainital that mainly include tourists was 4.24 lakhs, which increased to 5.18 lakhs by 2005, recording an increase of 22% with average annual growth rate was 7% over a period of three years (2003 - 2005) (Singh and Gopal 2002). In Nainital, most of the tourists (floating population) arrival is in three summer months (April - June) and two months in autumn (October - November) which are known as peak tourist seasons. Taking the tourist population of 2005 (5.18 lakhs) as the base, the average days of stay per tourist as 15, the average tourist load per day works out to 34533 or say 35000 (Singh and Gopal 2002). Further, it was that the educational and training institutions and the University together account for at least 20000 population. Besides, being district head quarter town and location of district court and High Court, and office of the Divisional Commissioner, large number of people visits the town on official business. The estimated number of such visitors is around 7000 (Singh 60 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand and Gopal 2002). Thus, the total number of floating population in Nainital town has been estimated to be about 129000 in 2015. Another indicator reflecting the increased tourism activity in recent past is the number of vehicles entering the town. The data shows that the number of light vehicles that entered the town during the peak tourism months has increased by about 46% in the past three years (Singh and Gopal 2002). One of the implications of increased tourists vehicle is the rise in vehicular pollution and traffic congestion on the narrow roads with limited carrying capacity. This pollution and traffic congestion is already being felt, and could become a major problem to human health and pedestrians’ movement especially during summer months, and particularly in the event of disasters. EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED GEOHYDROLOGICAL DISASTERS: The young and rising Himalayan mountains are highly susceptible to landslides and erosions. Nainital situated in close proximity of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) – the tectonic juncture between the Lesser Himalayan Ranges in the north and the Siwaliks Hills in the south -- is particularly vulnerable to geo-hydrological hazards. Impact of tectonic movements has resulted in intense shearing, faulting, thrusting and fracturing of the rocks observed in the area (Valdiya 1988 and Sharma 2006). Moreover, the terrain is characterized by predominance of high relative relief. Together these make the area very sensitive to slope failure and processes of mass movement. The increasing magnitude of anthropogenic activities for infrastructure development further enhance the slope-instability (Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, Government of Uttarakhand 2011).The activity of rock fall is quite common on hills sloping over 45°, 61 and a number of debris fans and cones have resulted from the recurring mass-movements in the lake basin (Valdiya 1988). The rocks of the area are folded into a broad syncline plunging northward and its northern limb is dislocated by a fault referred as ‘Nainital fault’ that run along the lake and beyond. The NW-SE trending lake fault passes through Balia nala in south has differentially uplifted Sher-Ka-danda hill on east vis-à-vis Ayarpatha on the west (Valdiya 1988). The sympathetic faults merging with the Lake Fault and development of criss-cross fractures and shears are responsible for number of landslides in the basin. In fact, Naini Lake originated as a result of differential vertical - rather rotational - movement along the Nainital Fault, which led to the impoundment of water of the stream flowing in the Naini valley (Figures 2 and 3). Geographically, it is a critical zone, in as much as, it lies within the belt of maximum precipitation (2814.06 mm), and also shows relief differences of the highest order (Joshi et al. 1983). These differences are manifest not only in the ecological diversities but also account for the characteristic geomorphic processes operating in the area, and the resultant landscape types. The Lesser Himalayan Ranges rising to an altitude of 2610 m above the mean sea level in the region makeup the physiography of the area, and erosion and aggradational process have considerably shaped and reshaped the geomorphic landscape of the lake watershed (Valdiya 1988 and Sharma 2006). The Lesser Himalayan mountains in the region are characterized not only by aprons all around the massif of debris derived from the massmovement, but several tectonic lakes within the catchment, many of which have disappeared following excessive sedimentation (Valdiya 1988). The geomorphic processes that operated in the past continue to work in Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation the area more vigorously owing to human interference with the natural landscape. As mentioned earlier that due to the presence of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and a number of other major and minor faults the town constitutes a tectonically alive domain which is responsible for highly deformed rock conditions in the entire area (Sharma 2006). Besides, during the recent past the rapid urbanization, settlement growth and infrastructural development have been very massive and phenomenal intensifying a variety of anthropogenic process interacting with the fragile environment of Lake Region (Tiwari 2014; Tiwari and Joshi 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015). This has rendered the region highly prone to mass wasting particularly to landslides. Consequently, the entire area is tectonically alive, ecologically fragile and highly exposed to a variety of geo-hydrological hazards. The entire township of Nainital is highly vulnerable to landslides and other processes of mass movement, particularly creeping and subsidence (Valdiya 1988; Sharma 2006; Rautela et al. 2014). The landslide activity is determined by many factors such as slope, geology, structure, lineament, geomorphology, climate, rainfall and land use pattern and its dynamics. The principal factors that initiate landslides are heavy and prolonged rainfall, cutting and deep excavations on slopes for buildings, earthquake shocks and tremors, widespread deforestation and population pressure. A large part of Nainital town, particularly, the steep slopes on both the sides of Lake are perennially under constant and repeated threats of landslides and mass movements. Increase in population and rapid urbanisation has led to expansion of construction activities in fragile terrains and has catapulted frequency of landslides to dramatic proportions right since the evolution of the town. The recent observation in rainfall pattern has further increased the vulnerability of the settlement hydro-geological hazards, particularly the landslides (Sharma 2006). Nainital has experienced devastating landslides of variable magnitude ever since the evolution and development of town (Oldham 1880, Auden1942, Nautiyal 1949, Hukku et al.1977, Pant and Kandpal 1990, Sharma 2006). The entire northwest portion of the town is developed over landslide debris that accumulated in past due to successive landslides. The five disastrous landslide events occurred in the year 1867, 1880, 1898, 1924 and 1998 caused massive devastation of urban infrastructure and loss of lives in the town. These geo-hydrological disasters not only transformed the urban and natural landscape of the town, but also underlined the need to understand the local geo-tectonic and geomorphological conditions before allowing to expand the urbanization in fragile mountain terrain. However, the most disastrous landslide that damaged a large part of township was on 18th September 1880, which originated from the snow view located in the Sher Ka Danda ridge in the northeast, following a continuous heavy rains of 84 cm in 36 hours. The slide debris washed away number of settlements on down-slopes in the northern end of the lake causing death of more than 193 people. The present hub of the town - the ‘flat’ was formed in the northern fringe of the lake due to the deposition of massive pile of debris generated from Snow View landslide. More than 50% of the human settlements in Nainital are situated on landslide debris deposited over the years. The geo-hydrological hazards are thus causing colossal damage to the urban infrastructure in complex geological environment of the urban habitation zone of Nainital as well as its surrounding peri-urban areas. Rapid urbanization in the town may 62 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand result in increased vulnerability of mountain slopes to mass wasting processes. The urban sprawl of the town during last few decades has been phenomenal consequently exerting pressure on already vulnerable geological environment (Tiwari 2014; Tiwari and Joshi 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015). Studies, indicated that lack of proper surface drainage and unplanned anthropogenic intervention emerged as the major reasons for slope instability in Nainital. In view of this detailed network of surface drains was developed in the watershed, and human intervention and construction on instable slopes were prohibited. There are 21 major and 3 minor drains connecting the lake of which a few have been constructed along the course of perennial streams. Out of 21 major drains, 14 are from Sher-ka-danda side and only 6 are from Ayarpatta side. However, the largest feeder drain is the one which collects the drainage and spring waters of the western-end of the catchment – called the ‘Naina Devi Temple Drain’ or ‘Bara Nalla’. The Naina Devi Temple Drain and the one entering the lake near the Mallital rickshaw stand are perennial. The major difference in the drainage of Sher-ka-danda side and and Ayarpatta slopes is largely because of different rock type. The Ayarpatta mainly consists of limestone and dolomite which are highly permeable to rainwater (Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, Government of Uttarakhand 2011). There are a number of springs, generally located on fractures and faults Besides, these there are a large number of gullies descending down the steep slopes, carrying discharges from springs. The Bye Law of 1930 laid down provisions for regulating anthropogenic activities in three areas around the lake (e.g., Sher ka Danda, Ayarpatha and beyond the lake basin system) that were classified as being Prohibited areas for 63 construction. In the recent past the issue of environmental instability around Nainital has also been raised by various civil society groups and individuals in the apex court of the country (Supreme Court of India) and also in High Court of Uttarakhand. Both the honourable courts advised against undertaking construction activities on the vulnerable slopes around the lake. In spite of this, the built up area has significantly increased in all the three areas prohibited for construction by the Bye Law. Nainital Lake Region Special Area Development Authority (NLRSADA) which is responsible for giving building plan permission revised the building byelaws in 1992 to restrict further construction activities in Nainital. Construction activities are not allowed in areas having more than 50% slope. Although 1.64 km2 of total town is demarcated as prohibited area and unsafe for any construction. However, this area is under pressure for further urban growth without the desired level of planning and development control. During 2005 - 2010 the built up area in these areas has increased by almost 50% which is much more than average built up area increase of 34% in the town during the period resulting in intensive land use changes (Table 3 and 4 and Figure 4 ). The growth of built up area has been particularly vey high in Sher ka Danda prohibited area where it has increased by more than 56%. The unplanned and unregulated construction on fragile slopes resulted in degradation of forest and bidiversity, and depletion water resources which feed the lake. Despite rapid urban growth and unplanned constructions of houses and hotels the pressure of heavy influx of tourists and other seasonal population has far exceeded the carrying capacity of urban amenities in Nainital (Table 5). Furthermore, the expansion of urbanization and population Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Table 3: Land Use Changes around Nainital (2005 - 2010) Land Use Classes Area (in m2) 2005 2010 Change in Area % Change Built up Area 630498.18 8,44,108.12 2,13,609.94 33.88 Open Area 345878.41 2,08,344.41 -1,37,534.00 -39.76 Trees Outside Forest 12,42,649.75 6,99,390.98 5,43,258.77 -43.72 Open Forest 26,61,936.97 5,18,460.12 24.19 21,43,476.85 Dense Forest 77,89,118.89 77,46,524.83 -42,594.06 -0.55 Agriculture 34,849.72 24,333.99 -10,515.74 -30.17 Water-bodies 4,41,331.48 4,43,164.00 1,832.52 0.42 Total 1,26,27,803.29 1,26,27,803.29 -- -- Source: Rautela et al. 2014 The Naini lake is not only the prime attraction for large number visitors, but it constitutes the source of drinking water for most of the population of the town. Nearly 40% of the total water supply comes directly from the lake (Singh and Gopal 2002). However, due rapid urban growth and phenomenal magnitude of construction activities in the catchment area the rate of sedimentation has been increasing progressively posing serious threat to the quality of water and the life of lake. As a result, the mean depth of the lake had reduced by 2.88 m decreasing water volume by 7682.5m3 between a period of 84 years between 1895 and 1979 (Rawat 1987; 2009). The bathymetric analysis carried out in Lake Nainital has given a sediment accumulation increase facilitated the emergence and growth of slums in the close proximity of lake, along the drainage channels and fragile slope in Nainital. As many as 12 slum pockets have been identified in a small town of 41000 inhabitants (Table 6). The total population of these slums was 9667 persons in 2001accounting for about 21% of the total population of the town. Narayan Nagar situated out of the lake catchment in the north-western fringe of the town has the highest, and Kathbaas located in Tallital has the lowest population of slum inhabitants. The growth and expansion of slums have further increased the vulnerability of large population particularly poor and marginalized to climate change induced risks. Growth of Built up area Prohibited Zones in Nainital (2005 - 2010) Name of the Prohibited Zone Area (in m2) 2005 2010 Change in Area % Change Sher ka Danda 62203.4 97359.3 35155.9 56.5 Ayarpatha 31797.5 48853.3 17055.8 53.6 Beyond Lake Watershed 57155.2 82266.3 25111.1 43.9 Total 151156.1 228478.9 77322.7 51.2 Source: Rautela et al. 2014 64 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand Urban and Tourist Amenties in Nainital Population and Amenities Permanent Population 39840 Number of Tourists 310000 yr Number of Hotels 120 Number of Shops 900 Number of Residential Houses 8000 Floating Population 7000 Source: Singh and Gopal, 2002 rate of 67 m3/yr between 1895 and 1967 and 78 m3/yr during the period between 1967 and 1979 (Rawat 1987; 2009). Sharma (1981) has estimated the life of the lake to be 314 years based on sedimentation deposit of 0.239 million m3 during 1960-1977 at the rate of 0.22 m m3/yr. Moreover, carbonate rock lithology which is more susceptible to weathering, high precipitation and frequent landslides may account for a higher sedimentation rate in the lake-bed. The climate change is likely to intensify the magnitude of anthropogenic stress in the lake and affect the availability and quality of water. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES PRIORITIES, EFFORTS AND GAPS Urbanisation in Uttarakhand has largely been an unplanned process resulting in the lack of civic amenities in proportion to population density. Unplanned urban growth together with rapid urban expansion and increasing inflow of tourists have made severe environmental impacts on the urban Slum Settlements and Population in Nainital S. No Locality Population 1 Narayan Nagar Slum Settlement Mallital 1947 2 Breysite Mallital 1360 3 Sardar Line Mallital 960 4 Committee Line Mallital 750 5 Bakery Compnd Mallital 650 6 Mangawali Tallital 750 7 Harinagar Tallital 1200 8 Dibhighat Tallital 780 9 Kathbaas Tallital 90 10 Rajpura Mallital 800 11 Sukhatal Mallital 180 12 Jubleehall Mallital 200 Total 9667 Source: Urban Development Department Government of Uttarakhand 65 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation ecosystem of Nainital, particularly in view of climate change. Nainital despite being a new town, has grown in an completely unplanned manner causing immense pressure on the limited urban infrastructure and services resulting into degradation of the urban environmental conditions and increasing vulnerability of large population to emerging threats of climate change. Major environmental concerns associated with such unplanned urban development are emerging risks of climate change induced geohydrological hazards, destruction of forest area, loss of bio-diversity, potential urban pollution in the form of air, and depletion of water resources. Despite realizing the increasing vulnerability of urban areas to climate change induced risks no specific climate change adaptation plan has been evolved for any cities of Uttarakhand including Nainital by the State Government (Government of Uttarakhand 2012). However, Nainital is covered under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), and under which a range of urban development interventions, including the development of city sanitation plan in underway in the town (Urban Development Department, Government of Uttarakhand 2007). Currently, no detailed climate vulnerability and risk assessments or community perceptions for urban centres of Uttarakhand are available (Government of Uttarakhand 2012). However, realizing that climate change is likely to negatively impact infrastructure and worsen access to basic urban services and quality of life in cities, the State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) recommended that Urban Development Department (UDD) of Uttarakhand would take necessary steps towards collating available data and information of impacts of climate change on cities, their systems, infrastructure, and people towards improving scientific knowledge and evidence base and understanding of climate change and its impacts (Government of Uttarakhand 2012). The SAPCC says that it will begin the process of developing the necessary systems, databases and protocols for collecting and collating the necessary evidence based observations and evolve appropriate response strategies. Towards improving governance mechanisms, institutional decision-making, and convergence, the UDD will initiate the formation of a Climate Cell within the Department, and notify sectoral focal points. It will take steps to improve understanding of climate change and its effects; education and awareness; and developing and strengthening partnership and cooperation. It will also initiate processes for developing the necessary coordination mechanisms, sectoral policy initiatives, institutional arrangements, etc. to ensure that urban agglomerations and urban populations in the State build their capacity to be resilient to the risks and impacts of climate change through implementing adaptation measures and contributing to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions’ (Government of Uttarakhand 2012). The plan further emphasises that ‘the UDD will develop and deploy a range of awareness and capacity building programmes for municipal officials for promoting appropriate measures towards climate resilience in their respective Urban Local Bodies (ULBs), as also similar programmes for building awareness on climate change and its impacts for the urban populations. The UDD will also seek to converge such efforts with other sectoral initiatives such as health, education, housing, water etc., and foster inter and intra departmental coordination’ (Government of Uttarakhand 2012). 66 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK MITIGATION PROGRAMS AND GAPS Preparation of disaster management plans Incrasing uncertainty in the precipitation patterns in the state is amply highlighted by the fact that both in the years 2007-08 and 2008-09 the state faced severe drought conditions. In the year 2007-08 nine districts of the state (out of total 13 districts) were officially notified as being drought affected while in 2008-09 ten districts were notified as being drought affected. Whereas, in 2010 and 2013 the entire state witnessed excess monsoonal precipitation and massive losses were reported from across the state due to repeated flood, flash flood, landslide and cloudburst events. Under the influence of climate change the geo-environment of Uttarakhand is increasingly getting more susceptible to a number of problems that include soil erosion, landslide, prolonged dry spells, glacier recession, erratic precipitation, extreme climate events and rapid loss of habitat and bio diversity. These have a direct implication upon the issues related to the livelihood for people in the state and adjoining regions. During the recent decades, climate change driven fluctuations in the precipitation pattern have shown increasing trends which pose serious threats to ecologically fragile, tectonically active and densely populated urban ecosystems, such as Nainital. During the recent years, the Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre, Dehradun has carried out a number of initiatives in the field of disaster management and mitigation for Nainital town (Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, Government of Uttarakhand 2011). These include: Structural vulnerability and risk assessment Vulnerability assessment of the building stock using rapid Land use/land cover change studies using high-resolution satellite data Landslide and assessment environmental risk Socioeconomic vulnerability assessment 67 Awareness generation Training and institutions capacity building of However, hazard zone mapping of Nainital Catchment was also carried out by Valdiya (1988); Sharma (2006) and Gupta and Uniyal (2012) (Figure 5). However, no detailed climate vulnerability risk assessments so far has been carried out from the view point of disasters, and particularly climate change induced geo-hydrological disasters for any township of Uttarakhand, including Nainital. Nevertheless, in general the Disaster Management Department has been carrying out a range of related activities for the entire State of Uttarakhand including the urban centres (Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, Government of Uttarakhand 2011). As per the State Disaster Management Action Plan (SDMAP) evolved by Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre (DMMC), Government of Uttarakhand, the following main initiatives are being taken for disaster risk reduction in Uttarakhand: Assessment of the impact of natural disasters upon masses, particularly women; Assessment of the people’s perception of climate change and documentation of their adaptation strategy through primary data collection in various regions of the state; Assessment of the changes being introduced in the geo-environment due to climate change through primary data collection in various regions of the state; Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Study of the impact on natural resources and livelihoods of people due to changing weather patterns and extreme weather events; Documentation of best practices in traditional coping methods, possible interventions to meet present demand and promotion of the same Documentation of the indigenous technical knowledge of the masses The City Development Plan (CDP) formulated under Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) by Uttarakhand Urban Development Department has made provisions for protection of natural environment, conservation of lake and water resources, and improved sanitation and sewage system in the town. The comparison of urban land use of 1995 to the proposed land use under City Development Plan (CDP) for 2011 is shown in presented in Table 7 (Urban Development Department, Government of Uttarakhand 2007). The land use plan proposed increase in areas under residential and transportation, and marginal increase in the area demarcated as ‘prohibited area’. The City Development Plan also proposed increase in the parking area from the existing 0.12 ha in 1995 to 2.24 ha in 2011. However, the areas for parks and open spaces remained unchanged (4.02 ha). A project for conservation of Nainital and other Lakes, jointly funded by Government Current and Proposed Land Use under City Development Plan (2011) for Nainital S. No. Land Use Categories Land Use 1995 Proposed Land Use 2011 1 Residential 90.54 7.72 186.00 15.86 2 Rural 15.50 1.31 17.50 1.32 3 Commercial 17.75 1.51 15.75 1.51 % to Total NNPP Area Area (ha) Area (ha) % to Total NNPP Area 4 Institutional 34.00 2.90 34.00 2.90 5 Parks and Open Spaces 10.64 0.91 10.64 0.91 6 Public Utilities 99.02 8.44 89.77 7.65 7 Transportation 14.07 1.20 16.14 1.38 8 Forest Areas 508.76 43.37 508.76 43.37 9 Water-bodies 68.90 5.87 68.90 5.87 10 Prohibited Areas 135.08 11.52 164.00 13.98 11 Undeveloped Open Area 177.7 15.15 -- -- 1.41 61.16 5.21 100.00 1173.00 100 12 Others 0.74 Total 1173.00 68 Case Study - 1 Nainital, Uttrakhand of India and Government of Uttarakhand is currently under implementation in the town. However, these urban development initiatives did not incorporate the climate change impacts on urban ecosystem and a mechanism for adaptation. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Nainital is one of the youngest towns of the Himalayan State of Uttarakhand, and some remarkable efforts were made during the last some decades to improve the environmental governance of the town and conservation of lake. However, the environmental conditions of the town continued to deteriorate. Nainital situated in tectonically active domain and in the zone of maximum precipitation characterized by relief differences of the highest order is highly vulnerable to the processes of environmental changes. The rapid urbanization is increasing the susceptibility of intensively modified and densely populated fragile slopes to the active processes of mass movement and landslides. Moreover, the rapidly changing climatic conditions, particularly the climate change induced hydrological extremes are posing severe threats to the sustainability of fast growing urban ecosystem by increasing the frequency, intensity and severity of geohydrological hazards in the town and its surrounding region. The climate change is likely to trigger the slope instability and disrupt the hydrological regime of the lake catchment which is already under stress of increasing urbanization. The city development plan and also the state disaster risk reduction framework and climate change adaptation plan did not make any provision for addressing the emerging risks of climate change, particularly the geo-hydrological disaster in Nainital and other towns of Uttarakhand. In view of this the following recommendations are made: 69 A comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment and mapping of the town should be carried taking into account all the critical parameters of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of urban ecosystem. A detailed and large-scale risk zone mapping of the town should be carried out analyzing the parameters of geology, structure, litho-logy, geomorphology, demography, economy and livelihood, infrastructure and services. A comprehensive urban land use policy should be evolved and implemented taking into conservation, developmental, climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction needs and priorities of the town. A participatory framework for the conservation of water resources particularly through reducing anthropogenic intervention in the recharge zone of the Naini Lake and Sukha Tal should be evolved. 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Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation Source: Author Source: Gupta and Uniyal 2013 Figure 1 Source: Gupta and Uniyal 2013 Figure 3 Source: Author Figure 4 Source: Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre, GovernFigure 2 ment of Uttarakhand, Dehradun 2011 Figure 5 72 Urbanisation Challenges in the Himalayan Region in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation For more information, contact: Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) Embassy of Switzerland Swiss Cooperation Office India Nyaya Marg, Chanakyapuri New Delhi – 110 021 T: +91 11 4995 9570 W: www.ihcap.in E: [email protected]