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Download New unabated1 coal is not compatible with keeping global warming
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Coal and 2 degrees C statement #NoCoal2C New unabated coal is not compatible with keeping global warming below 2°C 1 Statement by leading climate and energy scientists Prof. Ogunlade Davidson, University of Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone Prof. Peter C. Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists, USA Dr. Niklas Höhne, Ecofys, Germany/The Netherlands Dr. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Prof. Mark Jaccard, Dr. Jiang Kejun, Commission, China Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, Prof. Claudia Kemfert, Prof. Emilio La Rovere, Dr. Felix Christian Matthes, y Dr. Michael MacCracken, Dr. Bert Metz, Prof. José Moreira, Prof. William Moomaw, Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Prof. Keywan Riahi, Dr. Hans-Holger Rogner, Dr. Jayant Sathaye, Prof. John Schellnhuber, Dr. Robert N. Schock, Prof. P.R. Shukla, Prof. Ralph E.H. Sims, Prof. Jeffrey Steinfeld, Prof. Wim C. Turkenburg, Copernicus Institute on Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Dr. Tony Weir, Prof. Harald Winkler, counted as unabated coal, unless equipped with CCS. Unabated coal is not a “low carbon” technology 1. 2 2 capture and storage. 2 e/kWh. Renewable energy technologies are emissions-free in operation, 2 and even over their full lifecycle result in much lower emissions. Typical values for lifecycle emissions for 2 2 2,000 ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES POWERED BY RENEWABLE RESOURCES ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES POWERED BY NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES Maximum 1,750 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile 1,250 Minimum Single Estimates with CCS 1,000 750 500 250 –750 –1,000 Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Energy Wind Energy Ocean Energy Hydropower Geothermal Energy –500 * Concentrating Solar Power –250 Photovoltaics 0 Biopower Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions (gCO 2 e/kWh) 1,500 –1,250 –1,500 *Avoided emissions, no removal of GHGs from the atmosphere incur emissions levels below those of unabated gas plants, and therefore be considered a low carbon technology2. The only way that coal plants can be part of a low carbon future is for all new coal plants to include CCS from the outset. 2 2 could be a distinct advantage. needs to be stored compared with 2. avoiding dangeroUs climate change reqUires that the majority of fossil fUel reserves need to stay UndergroUnd3 harder to substitute. 4 GtCO2 FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES 3,863 GtCO 2 Oil 982 GtCO 2 Gas 690 GtCO 2 Coal 2,191 GtCO 2 2°C budget 1050 GtCO 2 The largest portion of this very small carbon budget will be needed in sectors where there are no readily technologies with near zero emissions. Building new unabated coal plants will extend the period during which coal continues to be converted into atmospheric CO2 persists in the atmosphere for 2 many hundreds of years. 2 4 The carbon budget for a 2o 2 2 . 2 3. cUrrent trends in coal Use are harboUring catastrophic climate change Primary energy demand for coal (thousand Mtce) 11 Medium-term coal market report 10 9 IEA scenarios: 6DS 8 4DS 7 2DS 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 include extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher under and malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity” . 4. to keep global warming to less than 2°c above pre-indUstrial, Use of Unabated coal has to go down in absolUte terms from now on There is no room in the remaining carbon budget for building new unabated coal power plants, even temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All of these scenarios support the strong reductions in energy demand and early closure of existing coal plants there will be no room for 1,200 I 1,000 III GEA-efficiency II II GEA-mix III GEA-supply 800 EJ II III I I 600 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS 400 Coal woCCS set to decline by 80–96% by 2050 200 0 2005 2030 2050 o are simultaneously shut down before the end of their economic lifetime. For instance, the IEA “4 coal plants due to Essentially, this scenario assumes the early closure of more than two subcritical plants for each of unabated coal. 5. alternatives are available and affordable The cost of electricity from renewable energy sources has decreased dramatically. In many places it is now competitive with fossil fuelbased electricity (see Figure cost of fossil fuel electricity will increase and that of renewable electricity will decrease further in the future (Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre and Range of fossil fuel power OECD Wind onshore Wind offshore 2012 2020 2012 2020 CSP PT (no storage) CSP ST (6-15 h storage) Biomass-stoker/ BFB/CFB renewable sources (excluding Biomassgasification UNEP Collaborating Centre Biomass-AD When the external costs due to climate change and the health impacts of air pollution are considered, electricity from renewable energy sources is almost always 2020 Solar PV-grid CSP PT (6 h storage) As a result, investments in new renewable energybased electricity systems have increased enormously: of all the new electric power capacity that came on stream 2012 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 Biomassco-firing Biomass non-OECD 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 Hydropower 2020 2012 Geothermal 2020 0 0.1 0.2 2011 USD/kWh 0.3 0.4 Health Climate Change COAL FIRED PLANTS (A) Existing US Plants (C) Hard Coal Postcom. CCS (C) Lignite Oxyfuel CCS NATURAL GAS FIRED PLANTS (A) Existing US Plants (C) Natural Gas Comb.C (C) Natural Gas Postcom.CCS RENEWABLE ENERGY (B) Solar Thermal (B) Geothermal (B) Wind 2.5 MW Offshore (B) Wind 1.5 MW Onshore (C) Wind Offshore (B) Hydro 300 kW (B) PV (2030) (B) PV (2000) (C) PV Southern Europe (C) Biomass CHP 6 MWel (D) Biomass Grate Boiler ESP 5 and 10 MW Fuel 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 External costs (US Cent/kWh) 6. pUblic financing institUtions and regUlatory agencies are reining in Unabated coal, bUt more is needed be something every government considers for itself in terms of domestic developments and (for those strong carbon pricing signals that are credible in the long term, regulatory action banning the construction of unabated coal plants is also warranted to prevent further lock-in of future emissions. This would avoid large amounts of capital being invested in assets that will need to be abandoned to achieve a 2°C pathway. REFERENCES New York. http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf Angel Gurría, London, October 9. http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/The-climate-challengeachieving-zero-emissions.htm Assessment -- Toward a Sustainable Future, (Johansson, T.B., Patwardhan, A., Nakicenovic, N., pathways_hires.pdf warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf Contact: Dr. Bert Metz