Download Implications of Climate Change on Ocean Living Resources off

Implications of Climate Change on
Ocean Living Resources off California
A Presentation to the
California Council on Science & Technology
October 17, 2007 -- Irvine, CA
William W. Fox, Jr., Ph.D.
Director
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California Current Ecosystem
**Regional Ecosystem inland boundaries include the coastal watershed and the inland extent of the
diadromous fish habitat see details at http://ecosystems.noaa.gov/workshops_&_meetings.htm
2
Value of California Fisheries
• Commercial Fisheries (avg. 2002-2006)
o
o
Landed value = $121 million
Economic impact = $218 million
• Recreational Fisheries (2006)
o
Economic impact = $600m - $3.1 billion
• Other living ocean resources related
o
Diving, whale watching, intrinsics, etc.
Source: S. Herrick & S. Stohs 2007 (p.c.)
3
Global Temperature Trend
4
Ocean Heat Content
5
Global Sea Level Rise
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CA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles
.
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Climate Change Impact Projections for
California Current Ecosystem
Projected changes - 21st century
•
Warmer summer temperatures; greater
ocean stratification, weaker upwelling
(very likely)
Examples of ecological impacts
• Northward species shifts
• Lower productivity & food
• Exotic species introduced
•
Warmer & wetter winters; greater
freshwater inflow, coastal flooding
(very likely)
• Reduced coastal water quality
• Toxic blooms
• Human health hazards
•
Higher coastal sea level (very likely)
• Intertidal species displaced
• Wetlands reduced
•
More extreme events; stronger storms,
El Nino, hurricanes (likely)
• Greater coastal erosion
• Fisheries reduced & displaced
• Warm-water fisheries available
•
Delayed seasonal cycle; delayed
upwelling (likely)
• Delayed spring bloom
• Reproduction, migration impacted
Schwing (2007)
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CO2 and Ocean Acidification
Ocean Acidification
That ‘other’ CO2 problem
pH
CO32-
CO2(aq)
Estimated aragonite saturation states of the surface ocean for the years 1765,
1995, 2040, and 2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the modeling results
of Orr et al. (2005) and a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario.
Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state decreases, a concomitant
reduction in calcification rates by marine organisms can occur.
- reduced extension rates
Schwing (2007)
- weaker skeletons/shells
Known Locations of Deep-sea
Corals
locations of documented
deep-water coral presence
U.S. EEZ
The data represent known locations of both soft and hard deep corals. Data do not
represent density of coral cover but rather known locations and may reflect fishing or
research effort. The origin of data varies: in Alaska - survey (RACE) and observer (NORPAC)
databases; West Coast – NMFS bottom trawl surveys and observer programs; Gulf and
Southeastern US - literature citations and fishery management council database; Northeast historical records, NMFS bottom trawl surveys and observer logbooks.
Murawski & Feely (2007)
Fishery Impacts of Ocean
Acidification
Western Alaskan Sockeye
British Columbia Sockeye
Central Alaskan Pink
10% decrease
Japanese Chum
in pteropod production leads to 20%
drop in pink salmon body weight
Pink salmon diet
Predicted effect of climate
change on pink salmon growth:
•10% increase in water temperature
leads to 3% drop in mature salmon
body weight (physiological effect).
(Aydin et al. 2005)
•10% decrease in pteropod
production leads to 20% drop in
mature salmon body weight (prey
limitation).
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Highest Priority Fishery-Related
Climate Change Research
• Exposure studies on bivalve mollusks (especially larval
bivalves), crustaceans, zooplankton (incl. fish larvae) and
phytoplankton
• Chronic exposure studies, using factoral design with
temperature, CO2 and pH stress (+ other factors)
• In situ exposure studies (mesocosms)
• Analysis of archival samples of plankton and chemistry
(e.g., CALCOFI, Antarctica)
Modified from Murawski & Feely (2007)
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Highest Priority Fishery-Related
Climate Change Monitoring
•
California Current Ecosystem data integration
•
Precise and rugged instrumentation development
•
Innovative sampling:
o
o
•
Shallow water monitoring sites for bigeochemistry &
physiology
Monitoring of oceanic pH, carbon parameters & carbon
budget
Modeling and forecasting at population level
Modified from Murawski & Feely (2007)
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Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System
(PaCOOS) www.pacoos.org
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Backup Slides
15
Earlier California Seasonal
Snowmelt and Runoff
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Coastal Ocean Stratification
OFFSHORE
COASTAL
Max
Max
Zmax
Zmax
Tmax
Tmax
Year
Year
Offshore
Coast
• strength: ↓ 7%
• strength: ↑ 44%
• depth: ↓ 10% (~7 m)
• depth: ↑ 82% (~18 m)
• temp: ↑ 1.3˚C
• temp: ↑ 0.8˚C
• heat: ↑ 7%
• heat: ↑ 7%
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Palacios et al. (2004)
Changes in CA Current
Source Water
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY: Long-term Trends
• Station 93.30 at sigma-theta=26.4
• Representative of California
Undercurrent Waters
• Long-term warming trend
• Increases in total nitrate and
phosphate, but at different rates
• Long-term trend in N:P ratio
• Also trends in preformed and
regenerated nutrients
• Possible shifts in source waters and
ecosystem structure
Bograd et al. (2005)
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Ocean “Regime Shifts” change
Ecosystem Structure & Productivity
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
warm phase
(from Nathan Mantua, U. Washington)
cool phase
(from Peterson and Schwing, 2003)
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CA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles
Natural decadal cycles for Two Millenia in So. CA Bight
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Interannual Variability Affects
Catch
35
El Niño
MNT
TOTAL
SCB
Monterey
SoTotal
Cal
30
(images from NASA)
25
20
15
10
Market squid
Annual catch rates,
1981-2005
5
-
21
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
CA Marine Populations Shift
Northward
(from Union of
Concerned Scientists)
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Warmer Climate Favors
Southern Intertidal Species
(from Berry et al., 1995)23
Lower Production 2005 from
Weaker Spring Upwelling
(from David Foley,
NOAA NESDIS) 24
#young/breeding-pair
2005-2006 - worst on record for Farallon
Island auklets (42 km off San Francisco)
1.50
1.25
Mean productivity = 0.70
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Nests abandoned due to delayed upwelling
2000
2005
From Sydeman and Bradley,
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PRBO
Future Upwelling & Primary
Productivity may be Delayed
Upwelling Index- 45N,125W
Peak coastal upwelling - and production occurs later in summer under higher CO2
(from Jim Overland,
NOAA PMEL)
Scientific Questions Regarding CO2
Murwaski & Feely (2007)
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NOAA Data Sets
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