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CONFERENCE REPORT
International Conference on Climate and Environment
Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters
16–19 February 2016
ICIMOD Conference Hall, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Table of Contents
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 5
Objective of the Conference ................................................................................................................................... 5
Day 1. The Pre-Conference Workshop Organized by IWMI ................................................................................... 6
Summary ................................................................................................................................ 6
Day 2. International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters ............ 6
Opening Session ...................................................................................................................... 6
Welcome remarks from ICIMOD ................................................................................................ 6
Welcome remarks from the World Bank ..................................................................................... 6
Welcome remarks from IWMI ................................................................................................... 6
Remarks by the representative of Afghanistan .............................................................................. 7
Remarks by the representative of China ..................................................................................... 7
Remarks by the representative of India ...................................................................................... 7
Remarks by the chief guest and representative of Pakistan............................................................ 7
Workshop background, objectives, and expected outputs ................................................................ 8
Session 1: Keynote and Background Papers on Different Topics ........................................................ 8
Climate and climate change in the Indus basin: How can research help? ........................................ 8
Recent progress in understanding changes in climate, glaciers, and water resources of the upper Indus 8
Socioeconomic challenges facing the Indus basin ......................................................................... 9
Session 2: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session ..................... 9
Glacier observation in the Hunza River since 2010 ...................................................................... 9
Field campaign and long-term monitoring in the upper Indus basin: Characteristics, problems and
recommendations .................................................................................................................... 9
The Upper Indus Basin Network .............................................................................................. 10
The Indus Forum .................................................................................................................. 10
Session 3: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session (continued) .. 10
Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and capacity building activities in Pakistan ................. 10
IWMI .................................................................................................................................. 10
Session 4: Climate Change and Variability in the Indus Basin ......................................................... 11
Results of the PMD’s research ............................................................................................... 11
Sub-regional process changes in the western Himalayas .............................................................. 11
Climate variability in the upper Indus basin: Trying to explain the Karakoram anomaly ....................... 11
Projected climate change over the Indus river basin using CORDEX-SA models ............................... 11
Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin ..................................................................... 12
Modelling the future changes in cryosphere of Indus basin ........................................................... 12
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A Karakoram anomaly update .................................................................................................. 12
Glacier changes in the upper Indus basin ................................................................................. 12
Debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: Their dynamics, surface processes, contribution to mass
balance ............................................................................................................................... 12
Day 3: International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters
(continued) ........................................................................................................................................................... 13
Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin (continued) .................................................... 13
Impact of changing climate on glacio-hydrology in Baspa basin ..................................................... 13
Snow cover variability over the western Himalayas and its influence on livelihoods of local communities 13
Session 6: Country Reports on Climate, Hydrology, and Cryosphere Data Collection and Sharing –
Ongoing and New Initiatives ...................................................................................................... 14
Country report on climate, hydrology, and cryosphere data collection Afghanistan .............................. 14
Ongoing and new initiatives in data collection and sharing, China .................................................. 14
Indus basin report: India ........................................................................................................ 14
Glacier monitoring: WAPDA’s initiative in the upper Indus basin .................................................... 15
Session 7: Hydrological Regime, Water Availability, and Demand ...................................................... 15
Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: Sources, shifts, and extremes ....................... 15
Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range, India ..................................................... 15
China’s contribution to the Indus Forum: Changes of observation and projection in climate, runoff, and
flood/drought over the Indus river basin.................................................................................... 15
Session 8: Climate-Induced Hazards and Risks ............................................................................ 16
Managing risks in the upper Indus basin: Community-centric disaster risk reduction approach .............. 16
Climate related hazard risks in UIB: Case of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral in Pakistan ......................... 16
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards in the Upper Indus Basin ........................................ 16
Session 9: Adaptation Strategies at the Local and Basin Levels ...................................................... 17
Water, energy, and food nexus in Pakistan: Implications for adaptation ........................................... 17
Good practices and examples of water management options in arid and semi-arid parts of the Indus
basin .................................................................................................................................. 17
Merging community-generated observations with large-scale data sources for increased resilience of
Himalayan communities ........................................................................................................... 17
Closing session ....................................................................................................................... 18
Brainstorming exercise (previously reserved for ‘Summary and way forward’) .................................. 18
Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................... 21
Day 4. Post-Conference Event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum Workshop .................................... 21
Update on Indus Basin Initiatives ................................................................................................ 21
Upper Indus Basin Network .................................................................................................... 21
Indus Forum ....................................................................................................................... 22
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World Bank ........................................................................................................................ 22
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ...................................................................... 23
IWMI ................................................................................................................................. 23
DFAT-CSIRO ...................................................................................................................... 23
Breakout Group Discussion ....................................................................................................... 23
Group Discussion on Next Steps ............................................................................................... 26
Closing Session...................................................................................................................... 27
Annexes ............................................................................................................................................................... 28
Annex 1: Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 28
Annex 2: Participants List ........................................................................................................ 29
Annex 3: Conference Agenda ................................................................................................... 42
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Introduction
The Indus River Basin is shared by four countries Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan, with the largest
portions of the basin lying in Pakistan (52%) and India (33%). The main river originates at Lake
Ngangla Rinco on the Tibetan Plateau in the People’s Republic of China and includes the tributaries Ravi,
Beas, and Sutlej in India, Swat, Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Indus, Shingo, Astor, Jhelum and
Chenab in Pakistan and the Kabul River draining parts of Afghanistan.
The Indus Basin ranks among the most important basins of the world in terms of human dependence. The
river supports a population of about 215 million people, whose livelihoods are directly or indirectly dependent
on it. This leads to a very high population density in the basin and an approximate water availability of
1,329 m3 per head. In total the Indus River Basin is estimated to have a total hydropower potential of
55,000 MW, out of which about 35,700 MW are technically feasible. At present, only 6,444 MW, i.e.,
about 12% of the potential are harnessed. Socioeconomic development of the countries sharing the basin
therefore largely depends on optimal utilisation and prudent management of the precious water resources of
the Indus River basin.
High rates of population increase in the region and associated socio-economic problems have been further
aggravated by recent climate change impacts which have produced more stress on the water resources in
the Indus River Basin system. The lower part of the Basin is now one of the most water-stressed areas in
the world and the situation is going to further deteriorate in future to reach permanent water scarcity.
Anomalous weather episodes may increase the risk of flooding and/or droughts in the region. Extreme
events such as intense rainfall and prolonged droughts are expected. In addition to these issues, the impact
of climate change looms across the region. One of the key areas where climate change is likely to have a
severe impact is the cryosphere and dependent water supply. In the Indus basin the runoff is generated
predominantly due to melting of snow and ice. Disruption in the hydrological regime can have serious
impacts on the lives and livelihoods of the peoples living in the basin. It is important to understand the
possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of river basins for better planning and
implementation of adaptation measures. Policy and decision makers increasingly stress the need to improve
the monitoring schemes of snow, ice and water resources in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region to
support evidence-based adaptation planning. Several initiatives are being implemented in the basin by
national and international agencies and academic institutions. It is widely recognised that proper sharing of
information on these initiatives will result in more effective support to the wider policy environment which is
critical to addressing the range of challenges facing the Basin
Objective of the Conference
The main aim of the international conference was to build better understanding of ongoing research and
interventions related to climate change and adaptation, the cryosphere and waters of the Indus basin. It was
also aimed at providing the latest understanding of physical processes related to climate, cryosphere changes
and water availability, including current and future trends in water demand. The conference attempted to
develop a framework to synergise the research and implementation efforts of various institutions and
individuals.
The conference was focused on presentation of current programmes and status of research in the style of a
Scientific Conference. Pre- and post-conference workshops was organised on 16 and 19 February with
smaller numbers of the participants. The pre-conference workshop on the 16th February The post-conference
workshop on Day 4 (19 February) was dedicated to Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Network and Indus Forum
discussions on how the available research can inform policy and how to fill research gaps. UIB/Indus
Forum discussions was informed by international scientists invited to the conference.
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Day 1. The Pre-Conference Workshop Organized by IWMI
Summary
The day, discussed the Informing Change in the Indus Basin (ICIB) project, which will be implemented in
the next two years. The ICIB project, financed by DFID under the South Asia Water Governance Program,
has three main components based on knowledge share, decision-making mechanisms and dialog.
Furthermore this project aims to contribute to strengthen and foster positive change in the basin. The
purpose of the February 16 meeting was to seek ways of strengthening decision making in this complex
geography based on the premise that building more inclusive decision support environments linking knowledge
through GIS systems with critical challenges facing the basin can improve development outcomes and reduce
risks (component 2A).
Day 2. International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on
the Indus Basin Waters
Opening Session
Welcome remarks from ICIMOD
Eklabya Sharma (Director Programme Operations,
ICIMOD) welcomed distinguished guests and participants
to the opening day and expressed great pleasure in
jointly organising the conference with the International
Water Management Institute and the World Bank. He
introduced ICIMOD, its objectives, work areas, themes
and programmes. “The Indus River Basin is one of the
most important basins in the HKH region because of
Photo 1: The opening session
heavy dependence of downstream communities on its
glacial melt waters” said Sharma. He also highlighted
the importance of regional collaboration for meaningful research in the region.
Welcome remarks from the World Bank
Christina Leb (Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank) highlighted the importance of discussing
climate change impacts in the Indus Basin. Of the south-flowing river basins originating in the Greater
Himalayas, the Indus River is the one most dependent on snow and glacier melt in terms of flow
contributions and thus at particular risk in the face of climate-induced glacier melt and change in
precipitation patterns. The World Bank is involved in the Indus Basin through the South Asia Water Initiative
(SAWI), which is financed by the Governments of the United Kingdom, Australia, and Norway. SAWI
facilitates a basin-level dialogue, the Indus Forum, which has been active since 2013. “Through the
dialogue process, participants from the four countries sharing the Indus Basin have identified climate change
as a topic on which they should work together” said Leb.
Welcome remarks from IWMI
Alan Nicol (Theme Leader, IWMI) was delighted to be one of the co-organisers of the conference. The
Indus Basin is part of IWMI’s broader research portfolio on river basins around the world. IWMI is currently
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implementing a two-year DFID-funded project under the South Asia Water Governance Programme called
Informing Change in the Indus Basin. Nicol highlighted the importance of collective action in addressing the
major challenges facing the Indus Basin and concluded by underscoring the importance of a people-centred
approach to basin developing given that the lives and livelihoods of the different peoples of the basin are
under threat due to climate change and other key factors.
Remarks by the representative of Afghanistan
Fazul Haq Bakhtari (Director Water Resources, Ministry of Energy and Water) conveyed the good wishes
of Ali Ahmad Osmani, Afghanistan’s Minister of
Water and Energy, for conducting a successful
conference with practical outcomes. He noted that
the conference was a good platform to discuss
shared problems and build trust in order to work
together to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
In the context of Afghanistan, these impacts include
changes in the growing seasons of major crops,
early melting of snow, reduction in natural reservoir
capacity, etc. Bakhtari concluded his remarks by
urging donors and researchers towards more
collaborative research and knowledge sharing among
Photo 2: Honourable Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan Hafiz
riparian countries.
Hafeez-ur-Rehman delivering the inaugural address
Remarks by the representative of China
Sun Yuan from the National Climate Centre (NCC,
under the China Meteorological Administration) thanked the co-organisers for putting together a conference
that brought together all four countries of the Indus Basin. In his brief introduction to the NCC, he
described it as an important regional climate centre in Asia and emphasised its dedication to innovation in
climate services that help decision-making. Reminding ICIMOD about its partnership with the CMA for an
international conference 13 years ago, Yuan expressed his desire to see a greater number of fruitful
collaborations in the region.
Remarks by the representative of India
Anil Kulkarni from the Divecha Centre for Climate Change explained that the Indus is a key basin for his
country because large irrigation systems are dependent on it. In this context, the Government of India
understands the importance of monitoring the cryosphere. It has invested substantial resources in this field
and, as a result, more than 45 projects are actively monitoring the cryosphere in the Himalayas. Many of
these projects are focused on the Indus and will produce a substantial body of knowledge on the basin in
the coming years. However, according to Kulkarni, more collaboration is needed with regional partners,
particularly on trans-boundary issues.
Remarks by the chief guest and representative of Pakistan
The Honourable Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, Hafeez-ur-Rehman, remarked that the impacts of climate
change are palpable in his region.The seasonal shift in snowfall to late spring and subsequent heat waves
have caused rapid melting of snow preventing glacier formation, causing flash floods and avalanches, and
loss of life and property. The Honourable Chief Minister announced that the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan
has taken the issue very seriously and is in the process of formulating a climate change strategy, which
will be the first of its kind in Pakistan. In this context, he extended his appreciation to ICIMOD for its
effort to support the mountain communities in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and to all the organisers for
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putting together a conference that will help shape his government’s policies regarding adaptation to climate
change.
Workshop background, objectives, and expected outputs
Arun Shrestha from ICIMOD outlined the objectives of the conference:
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To share knowledge about the physical processes and social transformations occurring in the Indus
Basin, how these two factors interact, and how to adequately address any negative consequences of
this interaction.
To coordinate various initiatives and promote the sharing of knowledge and data so that knowledge
gaps can be bridged. To enhance coordination among donors by informing them on what is
happening in the Indus and the interventions that are required, so that they can plan their future
investments accordingly.
Session 1: Keynote and Background Papers on Different Topics
Chair: Eklabya Sharma
Rapporteur: Faisal Mueen Qamer
Climate and climate change in the Indus basin: How can research help?
Danial Hashmi (Former Director, Snow & Ice Hydrology Project, WAPDA) introduced the significance of the
Indus Basin as well as some of the observed temperature and precipitation trends in the upper segments of
the basin. He highlighted the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere of the Karakoram and
Himalayas. In contrast to the Karakoram anomaly, his research inferred thinning, retreat, and negative mass
balance of glaciers. However, his analysis for the August flows from the three most glaciated watersheds of
the UIB showed that glacier mass balance is negative in the Central and Eastern Karakoram, but positive in
the Western segments.
He recommended the development of high resolution climate change and weather scenarios for better water
management. Moreover, he emphasised research on depletion of groundwater and improving hydraulic
structure design in the context of climate change scenarios.
Recent progress in understanding changes in climate, glaciers, and water resources of the upper
Indus
Walter Immerzeel (Assistant Professor-Universiteit Utrecht, Netherland) presented his research findings on
climate change impacts on the UIB. Based on the ground data analysis, he reported that precipitation has
not sufficiently changed, however, a decrease in summer mean and minimum temperature has been
observed. He also observed decline in Hunza River flow over the last decade. From projected climate
scenarios, he observed a rise in temperature by an average of 2 °C and a modest increase in precipitation
by mid-century, which will increase glacier melt in the near future but decrease in the long term. Moreover,
he predicted a decrease in peak flows of rivers during the summer, but increases during the monsoons.
Highlighting the future challenges, he underlined the importance of reconciling the observed trends in
temperature, precipitation, stream flow and overall loss in glacial mass. He illustrated the importance of
understanding the Karakoram anomaly and feedbacks between the cryosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere.
Similarly, he highlighted the importance of bridging the scale gap between climate models, hydrological
models, and scarce observations.
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Socioeconomic challenges facing the Indus basin
Alan Nicol (Theme Leader Governance, Gender and Poverty at IWMI and leader of the DFID-funded
Informing Change in the Indus Basin programme) presented the socio-economic challenges facing the Indus
Basin. “About 300 million people are dependent on the waters of the Indus Basin, and there is immense
pressure on supply due to demographic drivers like population growth and rapid urbanisation” said Nicol. He
emphasized Pakistan’s water stress. The country has already reached the limit of available water. There is
an urgent need for re-engineering agricultural water demand to confront underground water pollution and
over-exploitation within irrigation systems.
He explained that research points to demographic pressures on Pakistan’s water resources being some four
times as strong as those exerted by long-term shifts due to climate change. He also stressed that the
socio-economic challenges surrounding water availability in the Indus received far less attention and
resources than did the impacts of climate change, which would need rebalancing in the long term.
Session 2: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session
Chair: Jiang Tong
Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal
Glacier observation in the Hunza River since 2010
Shangguan Donghui from CAREERI, presented the Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering
Research Institute’s study on the Batura Glacier in Hunza Valley. According to Donghui, there has been
very little research conducted on glacier dynamics on Batura despite the fact that it is highly glaciated.
CAREERI has been conducting research on Batura Glacier since mid-70s.
Donghui highlighted the impacts of glacial movements on the Karakoram Highway, which once destroyed the
Batura Bridge, although, such movement stopped in 1995. He informed the participants that CAREERI
started monitoring metrological data and glacier mass balance of the Batura glacier during 2003. Based on
his organization’s research findings, he demonstrated that the ablation is three times higher now in
comparison to the mid-70s. Moreover, the snout of the glacier is accelerating and there is an obvious
increase in surface ablation in the lower parts of the glacier.
Field campaign and long-term monitoring in the upper Indus basin: Characteristics, problems and
recommendations
Matthias Winiger (Former Rector, University of Bonn, Germany) explained the research analysis of CAKAWS, elevation models, and run-off-data for the Batura glacier of 25 years which inferred that the UIB
receives more rainfall than previously observed, especially at high altitudes.
By highlighting the challenges, Winiger underlined that climate change models require validation with ground
data analysis. He emphasized the need to use the same instruments, methodologies and standards to
reduce the discrepancies observed in the results while studying hydro-climatic and glacier dynamics. Based
on his organizational experiences he recommended the use of standardized instrumentation and the
establishment of monitoring stations in the UIB. Moreover, he illustrated the importance of sharing the
correct data through common platforms, such as ICIMOD’s knowledge platform, joint field experiments,
courses, and workshops.
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The Upper Indus Basin Network
Khalid Mohtadullah (Chairman, UIB Network) introduced the UIB Network, its objectives, member
organisations and its six working groups focused on different research areas. He also explained WG’s
progress, the internal functioning and initiatives of the Network, as well as the current challenges that UIB
is facing.
He concluded by highlighting that the identified areas for strategic research should be addressed through an
integrated funding proposal. Among these research areas he emphasized the importance of studying past and
future climatic trends, their variability in the Basin, the state of the various components of the cryosphere
and their changes with time, and impacts of these changes on future water availability. He also stressed
the importance of improving data collection and quality control mechanisms, and promoting data dissemination
platforms.
The Indus Forum
Senator Nisar Memon (Chairman, Water Environment Forum) introduced the Indus Forum: “It is an
initiative that evolved from the regional Abu Dhabi Dialogue process and is facilitated through the South Asia
Water Initiative implemented by the World Bank.” The first Indus Forum meeting was held in Afghanistan in
2013.
Moreover, Senator Memon, highlighted the mission of the Forum, which is “to identify strategic opportunities
for collaborative actions for on-the-ground results and to work with governments on issues such as water
resource management and trans-boundary cooperation”. He also highlighted the actions achieved by the IF
so far. To conclude, the speaker mentioned IF actions within Pakistan, including the work of the Water
Environment Forum, which works at a national level.
Session 3: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session
(continued)
Chair: Jiang Tong
Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal
Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and capacity building activities in Pakistan
Geoffrey Podger (Scientist at CSIRO, Australia) presented on the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade’s collaborative three-year project with the Pakistani government on the Indus Basin. “As an
implementing partner, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation has been addressing
Action Area 5 of the ADB’s Water Sector Task Force Report, which recommends the implementation of
Australian water management technologies and associated capacity building for Pakistan” said Podger.
Podger recommended capacity building, improved climate change understanding, improved seasonal flow
forecasts, daily water allocation modelling, improved understanding on groundwater and assessing gender and
livelihood impacts for integrated and sustainable water resources management in the Basin.
IWMI
Alan Nicol summarised the main components of Informing Change in the Indus Basin (ICIB), a 2-year
project funded by DFID under the South Asia Water Governance Programme. Implemented by IWMI, the
project is focused on 1) consolidating and sharing knowledge; 2) building stronger decision making
capacities and 3) enhancing dialogue at different levels. The programme is building an Indus Basin
Knowledge Platform (IBKP) to harness and share key knowledge on development issues in the basin, as
well as supporting the development of tools to address complex decision making environments in different
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parts of the Indus system. Dialogues are being facilitated at the inter-provincial level in Pakistan, at the
basin-wide level through support to the Indus Forum and through a media dialogue across Afghanistan,
China, India and Pakistan. The project aims to support the SAWGP’s vision for increased regional
cooperation in the management of Himalayan river systems to deliver sustainable, fair, and inclusive
development.
Session 4: Climate Change and Variability in the Indus Basin
Chair: Khalid Mohtadullah
Rapporteur: Sagar Bajracharya
Results of the PMD’s research
From Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Azmat Hayat Khan presented his organization’s research
findings in UIB. Talking about the precipitation, he explained that a negative trend in precipitation has been
observed across the HKH region during the last 110 years. This means that more efficient water
management will be needed in the future. However, the precipitation trend has been fairly stable in the
Upper Indus during the same time period.
On hazard and monitoring, Hayat Khan informed participants that PMD has been monitoring potentially
dangerous glacial lakes. Between 2001 and 2013, the number of GLOF-type lakes that were identified in
Pakistan decreased from 52 to 36, which means that 16 lakes burst during that period. To address this,
early warning systems have been established by the PMD in Bagrote Valley to reduce the impact of such
events in high-risk areas.
Sub-regional process changes in the western Himalayas
A. P. Dimri (Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India) presented the research findings on subregional process changes in the Western Himalayas. “In the UIB, temperature changes are prominent,
especially in the wintertime, under all future scenarios” said Dimri. He observed more than 30 percent
decrease in total annual precipitation in the latter half of the 21st century under strongest warming scenario.
Climate variability in the upper Indus basin: Trying to explain the Karakoram anomaly
Hayley Fowler presented research undertaken by her team from Newcastle University, UK. The study
attempts to explain the observed cooling in summer temperatures in the UIB, which seems to be associated
with the stagnation and growth of certain glaciers, in contrast to that which is happening in the Himalayas
and other parts of the world. Fowler explored some potential climatic drivers that could explain the cooling
trend and asked if regional climate models could reproduce these drivers.
Using her team’s findings, a Karakoram Oscillation Index has been defined to quantify the latitudinal position
of the westerly jet upstream of the Himalayan arc, which explains a substantial portion of the Karakoram
seasonal average temperature variance over recent decades. It is owing to sub-regional differences in
Summer (JJA) Karakorum Oscillation Index (KOI) which constitutes a climatic mechanism to explain the
Karakoram anomaly. Moreover, she added that global reanalyses can reproduce KOI’s influence on
temperature, which suggests that global climate models are capable of reproducing the KOI function.
Projected climate change over the Indus river basin using CORDEX-SA models
Ashwini
Climate
Climate
claimed
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Kulkarni (Scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)
Research Program’s Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in
Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, has been
that Zoomed models (like LMDZ, which is a part of CORDEX-SA)
presented on the World
South Asia. The Centre for
leading this project. Kulkarni
provides projections in much
greater detail. It also makes multi-model simulations available, and thus helps examine and reduce
uncertainties in model simulations.
Based on her organization’s research findings, he informed participants that the Indus Basin climate is
changing and will continue to change. The temperatures across the basin will increase by about 1 to 2
degrees Celsius by 2050. The corresponding increase in some of the northern parts will be more than 3
degrees, which may cause precipitation increase by 1 to 2 millimetres per day by 2050, with greater
increases in the northern parts. The largest number of consecutive dry days may increase in the future, but
extreme rainfall during single events will increase in the southern parts.
Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin
Chair: Danial Hashmi
Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan
Modelling the future changes in cryosphere of Indus basin
Anil Kulkarni (Distinguished Visiting Scientist at Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of
Science, Bangalore) summarised some of his research on modelling the future of the cryosphere in the
Indus Basin. He informed participants that most of field studies on 81 Himalayan Glaciers (35 of these lie
in Indus Basin) in India were conducted between 1960 and 2000. These studies inferred that almost all
glaciers in the Indian Himalayas are retreating with a mean retreat rate of 178 meters per decade. This is
equivalent to a 3.7 percent loss of the glacial area per decade. A study on spatial distribution of glacial
depth in the Satluj Basin was conducted to find the location of new lakes, which inferred that glacial depth
varies between 50 to 400 meters. Since a great uncertainty of water volume stored in Himalayans glaciers
has been found, there is scope in this area for further investigation.
A Karakoram anomaly update
Joseph Shea (Glacier Hydrologist at ICIMOD) presented updates on the Karakoram anomaly. He informed
participants that the Karakoram anomaly was first identified by Hewitt during 2005, due to its exceptional
and peculiar behaviour. This anomaly was further confirmed by conducting geodetic and climate studies.
Most glaciers are surging glaciers, while debris cover is unchanged. Shea claimed that the possible anomaly
mechanisms are elevation effects (orographic precipitation occurring between 5000 and 6000 meters),
supra-glacial debris which may insulate glacial surface, and general climatology and climate change. He
emphasised the need for more spatial and temporal geodetic studies, and high resolution weather modelling
to fully understand the anomaly.
Glacier changes in the upper Indus basin
Tobias Bolch (Senior Researcher at University of Zurich – Irchel, Switzerland) presented the geodetic mass
balance of UIB. He explained that most Karakoram glaciers are surging with a repeat cycle of around 50
years. However two neighbouring glaciers are behaving differently. Further, he added that the geodetic
studies indicated positive mass balance in Karakorum during 21 st century, while Hunza Valley glaciers have
been in balance since 1970s. He emphasized the need to develop a more comprehensive understanding on
the climatology, hydrology and in situ mass balance studies on the Karakoram.
Debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: Their dynamics, surface processes, contribution to
mass balance
Pascal Buri (PhD student at ETH Zurich, Switzerland) presented his research findings on debris-covered
glaciers in the high mountains of Asia. He explained that a significant portion of the total glacial area in
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the HKH Region is covered with debris. Roughly one fifth in the Indus Basin, which affects glacial melt
and, therefore, runoff. A thin layer of debris increases the melt rate through increased absorption of solar
radiation, whereas a thick layer decreases it through insulation of the underlying ice.
Explaining the study conducted on five debris-covered glaciers in Langtang Valley, Buri explained that
thinning rates of debris-covered tongues are not dependent on elevation. Thinning hot spots are found
where supra-glacial cliffs and lakes are present. Moreover, volume loss rates increase over time where
supra-glacial cliffs and lakes are present. Thinning rates are constant or decreasing where debris layers are
homogeneous. In general, mass balances become more negative, but there is strong local variability. He
emphasized the need to research and quantify the role of cliffs and lakes, and to document the
characteristics of debris-covered glaciers across high-mountain Asia.
Day 3: International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on
the Indus Basin Waters (continued)
Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin (continued)
Chair: Danial Hashmi
Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan
Impact of changing climate on glacio-hydrology in Baspa basin
Rajesh Kumar (Associate Professor and Head, Department of Environmental Science, School of Basic
Sciences and Research, Sharda University) explained his study results on climate change impacts on
glacio-hydrology in the Baspa Basin. He informed participants that reanalysis temperature data suggests a
rise in mean temperatures in the Naradu basin between 1985 and 2014 (maximum temperature by 0.58
degrees Celsius per decade and minimum by 0.55), which have resulted in glacial mass loss in glaciers
of the Baspa Basin. He also found that there was a continuous increase in the equilibrium-line altitude by
112 metres between 1979 and 2013.
Kumar concluded that the average snout retreat rates in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and
Uttarakhand are 17.25, 17.19 and 19.38 metres per year respectively. The average specific mass balance
of all glaciers in the Indian Himalayan Region (with observed data from more than five years) is -0.60
meters water equivalent per year. The snow cover, discharge, and average temperature in the Baspa Basin
show strong correlations. The studies and data available for the Indian Himalayan Region are fragmented
and cover short durations. Hence, there is not enough information to form conclusions about climate change
impacts with a high degree of confidence. He recommended more studies under a longer-term mission
rather than in smaller project mode and also promoted more data sharing for better results.
Snow cover variability over the western Himalayas and its influence on livelihoods of local
communities
Shresth Tayal (Fellow at the Energy & Resources Institute, New Delhi) presented case studies on the
Chenab and Jhelum Basins, which fall under TERI’s Glacier Research Programme. The studies were
conducted to understand the impact of climate change on cryospheric contribution to rivers in the Western
Himalayas, as well as subsequent impact on local communities.
From the research he showed that snow cover analysis using MODIS data from 2001 to 2014 indicates a
temporal shift in snowfall in recent years. Using the HBV model snow cover and glacial losses with runoff
patterns in the river valleys was observed.
13
Moreover, downscaled CORDEX data on temperature and precipitation has been used to understand the
change in discharge. While sharing the research on impact of cryosphere variability on socio-economic
status of downstream communities, Tayal showed that in two communities in Poonch and Badgam Districts
of Jammu and Kashmir with similar levels of adaptive capacities and exposure to Climate change there can
be drastic differences in vulnerabilities owing to anthropogenic activities.
Session 6: Country Reports on Climate, Hydrology, and Cryosphere Data Collection and
Sharing – Ongoing and New Initiatives
Chair: Philippus Wester
Rapporteur: Sharad Joshi
Country report on climate, hydrology, and cryosphere data collection Afghanistan
Wasim Iqbal (Advisor at Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) updated the audience on Afghanistan’s
strategies and actions on climate, hydrology and cryosphere data collection and sharing. “The Kabul River
Basin generates 40 percent of Afghanistan’s total runoff, providing 28 percent of the total water supply for
irrigation and supporting 35 percent of the population” said Iqbal. He talked about a recent Asian
Development Bank study on Afghanistan’s major climate change impacts, which are: average rise in
temperature of 3.5 to 4 o C by 2065, snow cover depth will decline, snowmelt runoff during spring will be
reduced, and that there would be a further retreat and disappearance of glaciers. Addressing the deeper
impacts of Climate change on the Kabul Basin, he added that significant changes have been observed in
stream-flow patterns with higher peak flows, shorter high-flow periods, and reduced annual discharge in the
upper regions of the Basin. Moreover, the growing season has shifted forward by up to 30 days.
He also reviewed and explained Afghanistan’s Climate and WRM monitoring systems and challenges. There
are 13 Sub Basins of the Kabul River, for which Afghanistan has 35 hydrological stations and 16
meteorological stations for collecting data. To conclude, Iqbal highlighted the fact that Afghanistan has
recently started climate change action and planning and that Afghanistan was committed to a Low-Carbon
Development Path.
Ongoing and new initiatives in data collection and sharing, China
Shangguan Donghui from CAREERI, presented China’s progress in climate change studies in the Indus
Basin. He informed participants that Chinese researchers have been actively studying the Indus Basin (only
8 percent of which is in China) using human observations, unmanned aerial vehicles, and data from
Landsat, MODIS since the 1970s. One such example is Careeri’s research on the Batura Glacier (using
stakes to measure ablation). Moreover, Chinese satellites in the Fengyun series are being used to study
snow cover, surface temperature, and precipitation.
Indus basin report: India
Explaining India’s progress on climate change impact studies, Renoj Thayyen (Scientist at National Institute
of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, and India) informed that his institute has new initiatives, which
include runoff studies in the upper Shyok Basin and surface energy balance studies on the Phuche and
Khardung Glaciers. Moreover, the NIH and ICIMOD are co-organising an international workshop on climate
change impacts on Himalayan permafrost in August 2016.
He also explained that the Institute has conducted studies on isotopic characterisation in Jammu and
Kashmir. The observations show that, even though the glaciers in Ladakh are higher in altitude than those
in Zanskar, the glacial ice from both regions show similar isotopic characteristics. The study suggests that
14
the climatic regime (i.e. the cold-arid system processes) is driving the melting of these glaciers. Of these
forces, sublimation is a key component.
Glacier monitoring: WAPDA’s initiative in the upper Indus basin
Danial Hashmi on behalf of Asim Rauf Khan (Project Director GMRC WAPDA), presented the glacier
monitoring initiative by Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority-WAPDA. He explained that
WAPDA estimates snow and glacial melt contribute 73.1 percent to the total runoff from the Indus, Kabul,
Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers. He also explained that WAPDA has been monitoring the cryosphere since the
1960s and that a high-altitude network comprising 20 weather stations was established in the UIB by the
90s. The data from these stations is used to forecast river flows for the Indus, Kabul, and Jhelum Rivers.
He also informed participants that many field activities have been planned for 2016: including glacier melt
investigations in Hispar, Biafo, and Rakhiot Glaciers; snout surveys in Batura, Biafo, Hispar, Rakhiot,
Yashkuk Yaz, Gulmit, etc.; and discharge measurements in rivers such as the Nagar, Hispar, and
Shimshall.
Session 7: Hydrological Regime, Water Availability, and Demand
Chair: Nisar Memon
Rapporteur: Santosh Nepal
Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: Sources, shifts, and extremes
Arthur Lutz (Researcher/Consultant, FutureWater/Utrecht University) outlined the methodologies and
conclusion from his research with ICIMOD on the upper Indus hydrology. He described the methodology of
the distributed cryospheric-hydrological model which was set up at high resolution for a 30-year reference
period between 1971 and 2000.
The study was conducted for the first basin-scale assessment of shifts in seasonal water availability and
hydrological extremes for the UIB, which inferred that the projected water availability in the long run is very
uncertain (between -15 to +60 percent by the end of the century). Moreover, the study projects some
consistent seasonal shifts: minor increases in summer flows and increased flows in other seasons between
2021 and 2050, and decreases in summer flows and stronger increases in other seasons between 2071
and 2100. Similarly, increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are projected for most parts
of the UIB under most scenarios.
Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range, India
Renoj Thayyen (Scientist at National Institute of Hydrology, India) presented research findings on the
Ganglas catchment in Leh. He explained that cold-arid regime hydrology is characterised by a steep
hydrological gradient due to steep precipitation and temperature gradients. Furthermore, the uncertainty in
discharge in May and June is the most challenging aspect for water management. He also added that
additional contributions from the melting of ground ice could play an important role in cold-arid regime
hydrology. Cold-arid regimes experience high mean monthly slope environmental lapse rates for entire
altitude ranges between March and September, when compared with nival regimes. Hence, SELR modelling
is more helpful in extrapolating temperatures to higher altitudes.
China’s contribution to the Indus Forum: Changes of observation and projection in climate, runoff,
and flood/drought over the Indus river basin
From his main research findings, Jiang Tong from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) briefed that
relative to a baseline period between 1986 and 2005, the mean annual temperature between 2015 and
15
2050 will increase in the entire basin, with the greatest changes occurring in the Indus Basin upper
portion, under all three RCP scenarios used in the
study (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Summer temperatures will
consistently increase in the entire basin, most
significantly in the Indus Basin upper portion. Further
melting of glaciers will occur in the future. Moreover,
spring and winter precipitation will increase at high
altitudes and contribute to the accumulation of glaciers
and water resources. Summer precipitation will increase
over the whole basin, which will increase the risk of
flooding. He added that the frequency and intensity of
extreme temperature and precipitation events will
increase under all RCP scenarios between 2015 and
2050.
Photo 3: Nusrat Nasab presenting on the community-centric
disaster risk reduction approach
Session 8: Climate-Induced Hazards and Risks
Chair: Shakil Ahmad Romshoo
Rapporteur: Maxime Litt
Managing risks in the upper Indus basin: Community-centric disaster risk reduction approach
Nusrat Nasab (Chief Executive Officer of Focus Humanitarian Assistance, Pakistan) presented a summary of
the experiences of Focus Humanitarian Assistance-Pakistan in the HKH region. She introduced her
organization, focus areas and approaches to response disasters. Focus has created detailed hazard maps for
659 villages in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, where it is most active. Of these, 620 villages lie in the four
most vulnerable districts, where 125 villages are highly susceptible to multiple hazards.
Introducing the community-based early warning mechanism, she explained that Focus has taken up a
community-based risk management model. For example, the early warning systems that have been
implemented by the organisation utilise mosques to disseminate information. Focus has trained over 35,000
volunteers for community-level emergency responses. Over the years, the organisation has learned that
building the capacity of local communities and governments helps minimise risk.
Climate related hazard risks in UIB: Case of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral in Pakistan
Babar Khan (Senior Conservation Manager and Head of WWF, Gilgit) highlighted the climate-related
hazards in UIB. He explained that climate change has triggered erratic floods, snow avalanches, surging
glaciers, GLOFs, and landslides. Highlighting the impacts of climate change, he explained that lives and
livelihoods of people are at high risk and science-based mitigation is needed.
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards in the Upper Indus Basin
Samjwal Bajracharya (Remote Sensing specialist at ICIMOD) presented the results of research conducted by
ICIMOD on GLOF hazards in the Indus Basin UIB. He told the audience that 57 GLOF events had been
recorded in the UIB since 1826 onwards. Of these, 13 events had been recorded since 2000. He stated
that climate change, the associated increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, and
shifts in monsoon patterns are rapidly changing the glaciers of the UIB. Such changes are bound to
increase the occurrence of GLOFs in the future. Moreover, he explained that 52 lakes in the UIB were
16
observed as potentially dangerous during a study in 2005 utilizing Landsat images. This data was recently
updated during 2015 and shows that 39 of these lakes are now potentially dangerous.
Session 9: Adaptation Strategies at the Local and Basin Levels
Chair: Mohammad Wasim Iqbal
Rapporteur: Abid Hussain
Water, energy, and food nexus in Pakistan: Implications for adaptation
Golam Rasul (Theme Leader, Livelihoods at ICIMOD) talked about the implications for adaptation under the
water, energy and food nexus of Pakistan. He explained that Pakistan is ranked 76 out of 107 countries
on the Global Food Security Index. This is because 58 percent of households in Pakistan are food
insecure, one third of the population lacks safe drinking water, 30 percent population have no electricity and
half the population still uses biomass fuels for cooking.
He stated that the aforementioned scenario is due to the impacts of climate change on the Indus Basin,
which has impacted water, energy and food security of the country. Moreover, population growth, the rise of
the middle class and urbanisation have all increased demand for food as well as water for agriculture,
energy, industry, and domestic use. Meanwhile, groundwater is depleting rapidly in many areas. He further
suggested increasing water storage capacity, utilising hydropower potential more sustainably, and maintaining
irrigation infrastructure for greater efficiency as a supply-side adaptation option to address the against
aforementioned problems. Adaptation options on the demand side, he said, include incentivising water-saving
technologies, growing crops that are less water-intensive, and engaging the private sector to find innovative
solutions.
Good practices and examples of water management options in arid and semi-arid parts of the
Indus basin
Arif Anwar from International Water Management Institute-Pakistan, informed participants that the lower Indus
Basin is extremely arid, which is affecting land and water productivity. As adaptive measures, farmers have
to reduce cropping intensity, cultivating low delta and water stress tolerant crops with lower yields.
Alternatively, farmers use groundwater for supplemental irrigation which is affecting ground water levels in
Indus Basin. He shared the research results being conducted by IWMI in the Lower Indus Basin observing
the groundwater quality, which indicates that much of the groundwater is hazardous according to standards
prescribed by WAPDA.
Anwar also suggested other technological interventions including laser land grading and precision surface
irrigation as well as adopting precisely-designed bed and furrows in fields to match soil characteristics, field
characteristics and flow characteristics. Anwar described how IWMI has been introducing new technologies in
these areas in order to make surface irrigation more knowledge based. However, the pressures on water for
agriculture from population growth, climate change, and land degradation are significant.
Merging community-generated observations with large-scale data sources for increased resilience of
Himalayan communities
Nathan Forsythe from Newcastle University shared the experience of involving the community in hydrometeorological monitoring in Ethiopia. The results showed that community-generated observational records can
attain quality levels similar to formal monitoring networks. Such interventions could be viable and desirable in
the UIB. Forsythe suggested the involvement of stakeholders in monitoring and vulnerability assessment which
could yield bidirectional information exchange, leading to improvements in scientific understanding as well as
local awareness and capacity.
17
Closing session
The first segment of the closing session was
moderated.
Brainstorming exercise (previously reserved for
‘Summary and way forward’)
Participants were asked to form groups of two-four
people to respond to three questions with key
words written on cards. The cards were then
collected and arranged by session facilitators to
draw core proposals on designing the way forward
on research and policy in the Indus Basin through
greater collaboration and coordination Indus Basin.
18
Photo 4: Presentation of the group discussion
Question
All Group Responses/Suggestions
GROUP 1
GROUP 2
GROUP 3
Q1.What are the knowledge gaps that need to be
addressed?
Q2.How can we improve collaboration,
cooperation, and data sharing between the
four countries (governments, institutions and
researchers)?
Q3. How can we strengthen the links
between science, policy, and practice and
improve decision-making at various levels?
a) The Karakoram anomaly.
b) Knowledge on debris-covered glaciers.
c) Climate model selection and diagnosis: why certain
models reproduce observed patterns better than
other?
d) Higher resolution climate models that adequately
simulate the interaction between Westerlies and
Monsoon.
e) The Indus Basin in Afghanistan.
f) Black carbon, aerosols, and their implications.
g) The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation
at high altitudes.
h) Knowledge on what the research means for
communities.
i) Water demand management.
a) More joint research should be conducted.
b) Policymakers in the four countries should
be brought to the same table by
creating a neutral platform.
c) Common platforms should be created for
sharing knowledge and data.
d) More conferences should be organised.
e) Collaboration should be started at the
level of universities and research
institutes.
f) Protocols should be created for sharing
data between governments as well as
researchers.
a) Research should be more solutiondriven.
b) Communities should be included in
resource management and field
monitoring.
c) Risks and hazards should be effectively
conveyed to local communities using
accessible languages.
d) Scientific knowledge should be
interpreted for target audiences.
e) A ‘State of the Indus Report’ should be
developed with chapters on the existing
science and policy prescriptions.
f) Media professionals should be engaged.
g) Different media outlets can be used to
target specific audiences.
19
Group Preferred Response after
facilitated discussion
After a discussion facilitated by Arun Shrestha
(ICIMOD) and Undala Alam (DFID), all
participants concluded that research focus should
be on: (i) Implications of physical processes
on the people, (ii) Water supply and demand,
and (iii) Community led knowledge
20
The discussion, facilitated by Alan Nicol
(IWMI) and Anjal Parkash (ICIMOD),
concluded with key recommendations on: (i)
data sharing through open access, (ii) to
focus on cross-country research (iii) and to
invest and build the capacity of the young
generation.
Christina Leb (WB) and John Dore
(DFAT) facilitated the discussion and ended
up with three key messages: (i) Build up
the dialogue with policy makers, but do
more than talk-i.e. take action, (ii)
conduct policy relevant research, (iii) and
undertake simplified but appropriate
messaging, gaming and creative learning.
Concluding remarks
Eklabya Sharma (Director of Programme Operations, ICIMOD) noted that considerable progress had been made
in the production of knowledge on the Indus Basin in recent years. Scientific papers on the basin were
increasingly visible in journals and other knowledge platforms, he said. Communication between researchers,
institutions, and knowledge networks, he remarked, had also increased. However, it would take time, energy,
and resources to turn that communication into collaboration.
After he outlined some of the key messages taken from previous days. He highlighted the need to address
research challenges and gaps, such as the lack of monitoring systems or the Karakorum Anomaly. Moreover,
he underscored the importance of investing on research with a solution-driven approach, focused on people and
with the ability to communicate with decision makers and planners for achieving concrete action.
To conclude, Sharma mentioned that the conference had led to a rich exchange of information. On behalf of
ICIMOD, he proclaimed the organisation’s future commitment to the Indus Basin. In this context, he also
announced a four-year programme that ICIMOD had recently launched for Afghanistan, with a significant budget
allocation for research. Thanking the participants for the fruitful interactions, Sharma ended the conference.
Day 4. Post-Conference Event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum
Workshop
Acting as the moderator for the final day of the conference, Christina Leb proposed that the discussions to
follow, excluding presentations, be governed by the Chatham House Rule. 1 On account of no dissenting voice,
the rule was adopted for the day. The schedule outlined in the tentative agenda was modified to include more
presentations in the first segment.
Update on Indus Basin Initiatives
Upper Indus Basin Network
The UIB Network’s six working groups have made
considerable progress and several initiatives have been
launched since the UIB Network was formally
established: including the Himalayan University
Consortium, HI-AWARE, a cryosphere programme with
the KIU, GLOF monitoring with Focus, and water
Photo 5: Discussion during the joint Upper Indus Basin
management with the WWF. However, sustaining the
Network and Indus Forum workshop
momentum of the Network, developing an integrated
funding proposal for future research, and maintaining
regular communication among the working groups were noted as substantial challenges that lay ahead.
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the
identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. -See more at:
www.chathamhouse.org/about/chatham-house-rule#sthash.M9rn3Cm0.dpuf
1
21
A member of each working group of the UIB Network gave updates on their progress. The moderator opened
the floor for discussion and the participants recommended the following;




Three new working groups should be created: a) to study the impact of aerosols and black carbon;
b) to develop an understanding of socio-economies (for connecting physical sciences with social
processes); and c) to build institutional capacity in integrated water management (to assist
governments and policymakers).
The UIB network should extend its focus beyond Pakistan to the eastern end of the UIB.
Working Group 4 (Hydrology, water availability, and demand-basin scale) is currently working only on
climate projections. The group should make its focus comprehensive by including the study of water
cycles.
Working Group 2 (Climate variability and trends) should be renamed to give it a broader scope e.g.,
climate scenarios and future projections.
Indus Forum
The Indus Forum serves as the only coordinated initiative among participants from the four basin countries for
understanding the Indus Basin in its totality. In the current scenario, researchers are unaware of each other’s
work and decision-makers are disconnected from what is happening in the scientific community, even though the
implications of the melting cryosphere are immense. In this context, the Forum plays a critical role in bringing
together the study of hydrology, glaciology, climatic processes and socio-economic processes at the basin level
to enable informed decision-making for sustainable water-resource management.
The Forum is currently developing a joint proposal for coordinated research. The presentation was followed by
suggestions from the floor:




There is substantial emphasis on the need to gather more data, but the qualitative aspects of data
collection are often ignored. The UIB Network has been trying to promote common standards to
increase comparability among studies emerging from the basin. The Indus Forum should be doing
something similar.
The goals of the Forum and the UIB Network have significant overlaps and the two should be
coordinated
Most of the research in the Indus utilises downscaling from global climate models. But global models
do not seem to predict what is happening in the Himalayas because conditions in each sub-basins are
very different. More “bottom up” data and research is needed.
Among the various formats in which institutions can exist, a forum is a non-threatening space for
countries to come together and discuss common issues. The Forum should try to use its current
structure as a stepping-stone towards a joint commission or council.
World Bank
The World Bank is currently preparing a study on the glaciers of the Himalayas. The organization is interested
in coordinating its research with existing institutional platforms. The focus of the work is on aerosols and black
carbon, their impact on the region’s climate, and finding the optimal level complexity in cryosphere modelling.
22
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IIASA is preparing a study on how global climate change scenarios impact water, energy, and land nexus. One
of the case studies under this study is on the Indus. IIASA is seeking to link up with existing research
initiatives working on the basin.
IWMI
IWMI’s Informing Change in the Indus Basin, which started at the end of 2015, aims to establish a knowledge
network for research, linking scientific knowledge with policy constituencies, strengthening analytical capacities and
creating dialogues between provincial and basin-level actors, as well as through the media. IWMI believes in a
collaborative approach to develop the project and is inviting knowledge partners, particularly those interested in
supporting basin-level dialogue.
DFAT-CSIRO
The CSIRO’s DFAT-sponsored engagement on modelling the Indus Basin together with Pakistan’s authorities is
to help key national institutions build their capacity for integrated water research assessment and management.
Some of the project’s goals include improving climate understanding to support sustainable water management,
and developing an integrated modelling framework to provide a robust and transparent understanding of water
resources of the Indus Basin.
Breakout Group Discussion
After presentations from representatives of various initiatives interested in and currently working on the Indus
Basin, the moderator divided the participants into four groups to discuss the following questions:



How can we initiate research and mutual stakeholder interaction across the four countries of the Indus
Basin?
How can we integrate UIB research/activities with impacts on the lower basin?
How can we link the UIB Network, the Indus Forum, and other research initiatives?
Discussions were followed by a plenary session at which a representative from each group presented his/her
group’s recommendations. A brief summary of this session is tabulated below:
23
Groups
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
24
Q1. How can we initiate research
and mutual stakeholder interaction
across the four countries of the
Indus Basin?
Q2. How can we integrate UIB
research/activities with impacts on
the lower basin?
Q3. How can we link the UIB Network,
the Indus Forum and other research
initiatives?
a)
Utilise universities and
NGOs to collaborate in nonthreatening environments.
b)
Avoid politically sensitive
issues and opt for neutral topics
like land use.
c)
Focus on sharing
knowledge, not data.
d)
Standardise research
methods to generate comparable
results.
a)
Create a clear research
protocol/framework to guide
research activities in each
country.
b)
Identify a common
knowledge platform/portal to
share findings.
c)
Seek endorsements from
the four governments.
a)
Conduct a scoping study to
find out who is doing what so
that overlaps and duplications
can be minimised. The study
could document the institutions
involved in areas that fall under
the current and proposed titles
a)
Exchange research papers.
b)
Conduct more studies on
environmental degradation due to
development.
a)
The Indus Forum should be in
charge of dealing with transboundary
issues and sensitive topics because
of its intergovernmental focus.
b)
The Forum should guide the
UIB Network on areas of joint
research.
a)
Create a ‘Lower Indus
Basin Network’ (secretariat at
IWMI) to complement the UIB
Network. The Indus Forum could
act as the convener of the
networks by organising an
annual Indus conference.
Same answer as of question 2.
No Answer
a)
The UIB Network is primarily a
knowledge network. The Forum’s
institutional setup is more appropriate
for creating dialogues that involve
governments and stakeholders.
b)
Since ICIMOD is an
intergovernmental organisation, it can
play a role in pushing the
Group 4
25
of the UIB Network’s working
groups.
b)
Coordinate research across
countries using the same
models. By doing so,
comparable results can be
generated and shared, even
though researchers within one
country may not have access to
data from another country. The
UIB Network can provide the
institutional space to pursue this
option.
a)
Pick common topics that
are not politically sensitive so
that governments can come
together.
b)
Pick common research
agendas that researchers can
pursue within their countries, so
that results can be shared even
when data cannot be shared.
c)
Create an email list with
photos of all the participants at
the conference.
d)
Collaborate through the
Himalayan University Consortium.
implications of the research that has
been done into policymaking.
c)
Perhaps the UIB Network can
focus on the upper Indus and the
Indus Forum can focus on the Lower
Indus.
No Answer
a)
Create an inventory on who
does what.
b)
While integrating the UIB
Network, the Indus Forum, and other
initiatives, there should only be one
legal entity acting as the coordinator
(perhaps ICIMOD because it has a
long-term programmatic approach—as
opposed to a project based
approach).
Group Discussion on Next Steps
The final session included a plenary discussion on increasing coordination and collaboration between the UIB
Network, the Indus Forum, and other initiatives. A proposal to broaden the scope of the UIB Network by
adding working groups for the Lower Indus Basin and changing its name to ‘Indus Basin Network’ was rejected
on account of reservations that doing so might dilute the Network’s focus on the UIB. Many participants echoed
the importance of the ‘U’ in the UIB Network because the region is understudied but extremely significant in
terms of the impacts that it has on the Lower Basin.
In the end, the participants agreed that the Indus Forum—owing to its wider focus (the UIB Network is
primarily a knowledge and research network)—should act as the convener of an annual Indus Basin
Conference, where it can bring together the UIB Network and other initiatives for interactions between
researchers, policymakers, stakeholders, and the media.
Thus final conclusions were that: (a) the Indus Forum should perform two key functions: policy influence and
research; (b) that it should be a platform that coordinates and integrates all projects, programmes and
research, including the UIB network, which will remain as it is due to the high importance of the upper part of
the Basin; and (c) that the UIB Network will add two more working groups, WGVII on aerosols and black
carbon in UIB and WGVIII on Socio-economic impacts. Therefore the idea is to have an impact through
strengthening the Forum and creating a credible facilitative mechanism for gaining political buy-in and
emphasizing quality national engagements
The following action points were agreed upon:



26
Develop an inventory of organisations and initiatives.
Create an e-mail list with photos of all the participants.
Continue the research focus on the UIB.


The Indus Forum should be broadened to include more members. It should link up with initiatives in
the lower basin.
The Indus Forum should organise Indus Basin Conferences annually. The conferences should have
tailored agendas.
Closing Session
The session and the week of meetings was closed by the Director Programmes of ICMIOD, Eklabya Sharma.
Reiterating the importance of the Upper Indus with regard to the impacts that it has all along the basin, he
appreciated the participants’ decision to support the UIB Network’s current research focus.
Sharma declared the conference a success for meeting its objective of sharing knowledge with practical
outcomes. He concluded by thanking IWMI and the World Bank for their support.
27
Annexes
Annex 1: Abbreviations
ADB
Asian Development Bank
CAREERI
Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute
CMA
China Meteorological Administration
CORDEX
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
CSIRO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
DFAT
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Australia)
DFID
Department for International Development (UK)
GLOF
glacial lake outburst flood
GCM
general circulation model
HI-AWARE
Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (ICIMOD)
HKH
Hindu Kush Himalayan region
ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IWMI
International Water Management Institute
KIU
Karakoram International University
MODIS
moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer
NCC
National Climate Center (CMA)
NIH
National Institute of Hydrology (Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee)
PMD
Pakistan Meteorological Department
RCP
Representative Concentration Pathways
SELR
slope environmental lapse rate
TERI
The Energy and Resources Institute
SAWGP South Asia Water Governance Programme
UIB
Upper Indus Basin
WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority (Pakistan)
28
Annex 2: Participants List
S.
Participant name and contact information
No
Afghanistan
1
Mir Ahmad Ahmad
Water Resources Specialist
The World Bank
Kabul
Afghanistan
Tel: 0093 700 212 455 ; +1 202 790 9955
Email: [email protected]
2
Sayed Sharif Shobair
Technical Advisor, Ministry of Energy and Water ,Chief Engineer FAO-IRDP
Ministry of Energy and Water /UNFAO
Kabul
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Tel: +93(0)700 22 34 34
Email: [email protected]
Mohamad Wasim Iqbal
Senior Advisor to Minister Energy and Water
Kabul
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Tel: +93 780119508
Email: [email protected]
3
4
5
29
Sediqa Hassani
Adviser to DM Water
Kabul
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Tel: +93 744411264
Email: [email protected]
Fazul Haq Bakhtari
Director, Water Resources Department ,Ministry Energy and Water
Afghanistan
Tel : 0799373732
Email: [email protected]
China
6
Zhao Chengyi
Head of Aksu Station
Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi,Xinjiang
China
Tel: 0991-7885455
Email: [email protected]
7
Li Xiucang
Water cycle and evapotranspiration
National Climate Centre
China Meteorological Administration
Yunnan
China
Email: [email protected]
8
Xu Hongmei
Professor, National Climate Center , CMA
China
Email: [email protected]
9
10
India
30
Sun Yuan
International cooperation
National Climate Centre
China Meteorological Administration
Yunnan
China
Email: [email protected]
Donghui Shangguan
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,
Cold & Arid Regions Environmental & Engineering Research Institute
Chinese Academy of Sciences
320# West Donggang Road, Lanzhou,Gansu, P.R.China
Tel: 86-931-4967375
Email: [email protected]
11
A. P. Dimri
Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Mehrauli Road, Near Munirka, New Delhi, Delhi 110067, India
Tel: 011- 26704319
EmInail: [email protected]; [email protected]
12
Rajesh Kumar
Associate Professor
M-11, South Extension, Part - II,
New Delhi – 110049
India
Email: [email protected]
13
Ashwini Kulkarni
Scientist E , Project Director :short –term climate variability and prediction
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Pashan Road, Panchawati, Pune, Maharashtra 411008
India
Tel: 91 (020) 25893600 (O) Ext.234
Email: [email protected]
Anil V Kulkarni
Distinguished Visiting Scientist
Divecha Centre for Climate Change
Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore – 560012
India
Email: [email protected]
Shresth Tayal
Adjunct Faculty, Department of Natural Resources
Plot No. 10 Institutional Area
Vasant Kunj
New Delhi - 110 070
India
Tel. +91 11 71800222
Email: [email protected]
Renoj J.Thayyen
Scientist
National Institute of Hydrology
Roorkee-247667
India
(M) 9412074258
(0) 01332-249237
Email: [email protected]
14
15
16
31
17
Shakil Ahmad Ramshoo
Head of Department, Earth Sciences
University of Kashmir
Hazratbal,
Srinagar-190 006 (J&K) India.
Phone: +91-(0)194-2422543, 2424146, 2420078 (Ext. 2161),
Email: [email protected]
Pakistan
18
Azmat Hayat Khan
Director
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
Headquarters Office Sector H-8/2, Islamabad
Phone: (+92-51) 9250360
Pakistan
Email: [email protected]
19
Danial Hashmi
Former Project Director Glacier Monitoring Research Centre
Water and Power Development Authority
Pakistan
Tel: 92 (0)4237028376 , Mob 92 (0) 300 4344584
Email: [email protected]
20
21
22
32
Khalid Mohtadullah
Chair, Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Network
41 T Street 10, DHA Phase II
Lahore Cantt
Pakistan
Tel: 92 (0)42 35727905, Mob 92 (0) 300 8440 960
Email: [email protected]
Nisar Memon
Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology
Nawaabshah Sindh,
Pakistan
Email: [email protected]
Adnan Ahmed Tahir
Assistant Professor/Researcher
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology
Abottabad
Pakistan
Email: [email protected]
23
24
Nusrat Nasab
Chief Executive Officer
Focus Humanitarian Assistance
Level 9, Serena Business Complex, Khayaban-e-Suharwardy, Islamabad,
Pakistan
Tel:+92-51-2072500
Email: [email protected]
Babar Khan
Sr. Conservation Manager / Head
WWF-Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan)
P.O. Box: 5180; Ferozepur Road, Lahore, Pakistan
Tel:+42-3586 2359-60
Email: [email protected] ;
[email protected]
25
Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman,
Honorable Chief Minister of Gilgit Baltistan,
Chief Minister House, Chinaar Bagh, Gilgit,
Pakistan
Telephone: +92 5811 920464
Fax: +92 5811 920210
Email: [email protected]
26
Saleem Sadiq
Joint Secretary
Ministry of National Food Security and Research
B-Block, Islamabad
Pakistan
Tel:+92 51 9201639
Email: [email protected]
Interntational Experts
27
Walter Immerzeel
Future Water
Netherlands
Email: [email protected]
28
Matthias Winiger
University of Bonn
Regina-Pacis-Weg 3
53113 Bonn
Germany
Email: [email protected]
33
29
30
32
33
34
34
Tobias Bolch
Department of Geography
University of Zurich - Irchel
Winterthurerstr. 190
CH-8057, Zurich
Switzerland
Email: [email protected]
Buri Pascal
Institut f. Umweltingenieurwiss
HIL D 23.3
Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5
8093 Zuerich
Switzerland
Tel: +41 44 633 77 20
Email: [email protected]
Arthur Lutz
Future Water
Netherlands
Email: [email protected]
Nathan Forsythe
Newcastle University
Cassie Building
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
UK
Tel: +44 (0)191 208 6323
Email: [email protected]
Hayley J Fowler
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Newcastle University
Room 3.08
Cassie Building
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU UK
Tel: 44 (0) 191 208 7113
Email: [email protected]
35
David Pritchard
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Newcastle University,
Cassie Building, Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
UK
Tel: 44 (0) 191 208 7113
Email: [email protected]
World Bank
36
Christina Leb
Senior Water Resources Specialist
World Bank
Washington DC
USA
Email: [email protected]
37
Irene Rehberger Bescos
Water Resources Manangement
World Bank
Email: [email protected]
38
Muthukumar Mani
Senior Environmental Economist
Sustainable Development Department
World Bank
Washington DC
USA
Email: [email protected]
39
Gowhar Meraj
Consultant,
World Bank
J&K, India
Email: [email protected]
IWMI
35
40
41
42
Alan Nicol
Theme Leader- Governance , Gender and Poverty
IWMI Headquarters
127 Sunil Mawatha, Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte
Sri Lanka
Tel:+94 11 2 784080
Email: [email protected]
Arif Anwar
Head of Office
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
12KM Multan Road, Chowk Thokar Niaz Baig
Lahore 53700, Pakistan
Tel: +92 42 35299504-6
Email: [email protected]
Ram Bastakoti
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
Kathmandu, Nepal
Email: [email protected]
43
Srabani Roy
Director, Asia
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
127, Sunil Mawatha, Pelawatte, Battaramulla
P.O. Box 2075, Colombo
Sri Lanka
Telephone: +94-11 2880000, 2784080
Email: [email protected]
44
Nitasha Nair
International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
New Delhi, India
Email: [email protected]
CSIRO
36
45
Mobin Ahmad
Irrigation Hydrologist
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
Dickson ACT 2602
Australia
Email: [email protected]
46
Geoff Podger
Senior River Modeller
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
Dickson ACT 2602
Australia
Email: [email protected]
Development Partners
47
48
49
50
37
Semund Haukland
Senior Adviser, Water Resources
Norad – Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
P.O.Box 8034 Dep, 0030 Oslo
Norway
Mobile: +47-9413 4931, Office direct: +47-23980554
E-mail: [email protected]
Undala Alam
Regional Water Resources and Climate Adviser & Manager, South Asia
Water Governance Programme | Asia Regional Team | DFID | British High
Commission, Diplomatic Enclave, Ramna 5, Islamabad, Pakistan
|[email protected]| VMR 402032182 and 2422# | Mobiles: when in
Pakistan +92 3000 450217, in India +91 88 2672 8553, and elsewhere
+44 7918 223833
Kate Hayes
Governance Advisor, Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP)
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia
Australia
Ph: +61 2 6243 5174; +61 401 928 462 (M)
Email: [email protected]
Brian Dawson
Advisor, Climate Change and Energy
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
51
R.G. Casey Building
John McEwen Crescent
Barton ACT 0221
Australia
Email: [email protected]
John Dore
Senior Water Resources Sector Specialist
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT)
Bangkok
Thailand
Email: [email protected]
Media
52
Peer Muhammad
Reporter
The Express Tribune
Islamabad, Pakistan
Email: [email protected]
53
Jane Qiu
Science Writer
9-1808 Jiulong Huayuan
29 Guangqu Lu, Chaoyang District
Beijing, China
Email: [email protected]
54
Shahani Singh
Freelance journalist
SciDev.Net
147/65 kha Chaksibarimarg
Kathmandu – 16, Nepal
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 9808077774
Athar Parvaiz
Freelance Journalist
Press Enclave Opposite Pratap Park
Srinagar, India
Mobile: 91-9419071620
Email: [email protected]
55
ICIMOD
38
56
Eklabya Sharma
Director Programme Operations
Directorate, ICIMOD
[email protected]
57
Farid Ahmad
Head of Strategic Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation
ICIMOD
[email protected]
58
Arun Bhakta Shrestha
Regional Programme Manager
River Basins and Cryosphere and Atmosphere, ICIMOD
[email protected]
59
Philippus Wester
Chief Scientist, Water Resources Management
Water and Air , ICIMOD
[email protected]
60
Pradeep Mool
Programme Coordinator - Cryosphere Initiative
Cryosphere and Atmosphere, ICIMOD
[email protected]
61
Joseph Michael Shea
Glacier Hydrologist
Water and Air, ICIMOD
[email protected]
39
62
Abdul Wahid Jasra
Country Representative - Pakistan
Country Offices, ICIMOD
[email protected]
63
Golam Rasul
Theme Leader
Livelihoods, ICIMOD
[email protected]
64
Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya
Remote Sensing Specialist
Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD
[email protected]
65
Madhav Prasad Dhakal
Hydrological Analyst
Water and Air , ICIMOD
[email protected]
66
Sagar Ratna Bajracharya
Hydrometeorological Analyst
Water and Air, ICIMOD
[email protected]
67
Sudan Bikash Maharjan
Research Associate, Remote Sensing and GIS
Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD
[email protected]
68
Sharad Prasad Joshi
Glacier Analyst
Water and Air, ICIMOD
[email protected]
40
69
Santosh Nepal
Associate Coordinator - Koshi Basin Initiative
Water and Air, ICIMOD
[email protected]
70
Maxime Litt
Glacio-Hydrologist
Water and Air, ICIMOD
[email protected]
71
Abid Hussain
Food Security Economist
Livelihoods, ICIMOD
[email protected]
72
Faisal Mueen Qamar
Remote Sensing Specialist
Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD
[email protected]
73
Muhammad Mudassar Maqsood
Associate coordinator (SSA)
River Basin Management , ICIMOD
[email protected]
74
Liza Manandhar
Programme Associate
River Basin Management, ICIMOD
[email protected]
75
Smita Ghimire
SSA
River Basin Management, ICIMOD
[email protected]
41
Annex 3: Conference Agenda
DAY/DATE
CONTENT
SPEAKERS
Day 1: 16 February – Pre-conference Workshop – Mapping complex decision making in critical geographies: Identifying
approaches and establishing partnerships in the Upper Indus Basin (Agenda attached separately)
Day 2: 17 February – International Conference – Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters
08:45 – 09:15 Registration
09:15 – 10:15
Opening Session
09:15 – 09:25
09:35 – 09:45


Welcome remarks from ICIMOD
Welcome remarks from World Bank


09:45 – 09:55

Welcome remarks from IWMI


Remarks by representatives of
o Afghanistan
o China
o India
09:55 – 10:10
Inaugural remarks by the Chief Guest
10:10 – 10:15
Workshop background and objectives and expected outputs
10:15 – 10:45
Group Photographs & tea/coffee
10:45 – 11:45
Session 1: Keynote & Background papers on different topics
David Molden, ICIMOD
Christina Leb, World
Bank
Alan Nicol, IWMI
Fazul Haq Bakhtari,
WAPECA
o Sun Yuan, NCC/CMA
o Anil Kulkarni, Divecha
Centre for Climate
Change
Hafeez-ur-Rehman, Honourable
Chief Minister, Gilgit Baltistan
o
Arun Shrestha, ICIMOD
Chair: Eklabya Sharma Rapporteur: Faisal Mueen Qamer
10:45 – 11:00


11:00 – 11:15

11:15 – 11:30
Climate and climate change in Indus Basin: how can
research help?
Recent progress in the understanding of changes in
climate, glaciers and water resources of the Upper Indus
Socio-Economic challenges facing the Indus Basin

Danial Hashmi

Walter Immerzeel,
FutureWater
Alan Nicol, IWMI

Discussion
11:30 – 11:45
11:45 – 12:45
42
Session 2: Ongoing programmes and projects: Information sharing and feedback session
Chair: Jiang Tong Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal
Presentation on ongoing programme
11:45 – 12:00


12:00 – 12:15

Glacier observation in Hunza River since 2010
Field campaigns and longterm monitoring in the UIB characteristics, problems, recommendations
UIB Network



12:15 – 12:30

Indus Forum

Shangguan Donghui,
CAREERI
Matthias Winiger, University
of Bonn
Khalid Mohtadullah, UIB
Network
Nisar Memon, Water and
Environment Forum
12:30 – 12:45
12:45 – 13:45
Lunch
13:45 – 14:30
Session 3: Continuation of Session 2

13:45 – 14:00
Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and

Geoffrey Podger, CSIRO

Alan Nicol, IWMI
capacity building activities in Pakistan

14:00 – 14:15
IWMI
Discussion
14:15 – 14:30
14:30 – 15:45
Session 4: Climate Change and variability in the Indus Basin
Chair: Khalid Mohtadullah Rapporteur: Sagar Bajracharya
Climate trends and variability in Indus basin changes in the monsoon and westerly, moisture and
thermal regime extreme events, etc
14:30 – 14:45
14:45 – 15:00
15:00 – 15:15
15:15 – 15:30




Results of PMD research
Sub-regional process changes in the Western Himalayas
Climate variability in the Upper Indus Basin: trying to
explain the Karakoram Anomaly
Projected climate change over Indus River Basin using
CORDEX-SA models
15:30 – 15:45
Discussion
15:45 -16:05
Tea/Coffee break
43




Azmat Hayat Khan, PMD
A. P. Dimri , JNU
Hayley Fowler, Newcastle
University
Ashwini Kulkarni, IITM
16:05 -17:20
Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin
Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikash Maharjan
Cryosphere dynamics, Karakorum anomaly, glacial hazards, debris covered glacier, etc
16:05 – 16:20
16:20 – 16:35
16:35 – 16:50
16:50 – 17:05



Modelling future of the Cryosphere in Indus Basin
A Karakoram Anomaly update
Geodetic mass balance of Upper Indus Basin




Debris covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: their

dynamics: surface processes, contribution to mass balance:
Anil Kulkarni, DCCC
Joseph Shea, ICIMOD
Tobias Bolch, Univ. of
Zurich
Pascal Buri,
Institut f. Umweltingenieurwiss
what we know and what we do not.
17:05 – 17:20
Discussion
18:00 –
Conference Dinner
Day 3: 18 February
09:00 – 09:40 Session 5: (Continued) – Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin
Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan
09:00 – 09:15 

09:15 – 09:30
09:30 – 09:40
Impact of changing climate on glaciohydrology in Baspa
Basin
Snow cover variability over Jhelum Basin, and its influence
on livelihood of local communities


Rajesh Kumar, Sharda
University
Shresth Tayal, TERI
Discussion
09:40 – 10:35 Session 6: Country report on climate, hydrology and cryosphere data collection and sharing:
ongoing and new initiatives
Chair: Philippus Wester Rapporteur: Sharad Joshi
9:40 – 9:50
9:50 -10:00
10:00 - 10:10
10:10 – 10:20




Afghanistan
China
India
Glacier monitoring: WAPDA 's initiative in the Upper Indus
Basin
10:20 – 10:35
Discussion
10:35 -11:05
Tea/Coffee break
11:05 -12:20
Session 7: Hydrological regime water availability and demand
44




Md. Wasim Iqbal, MEW
Songuan Dongqui, CAREERI
Renoj Thayyen, India
Danial Hashmi for Asim Rauf
Khan, WAPDA
Chair: Nisar Memon Rapporteur: Santosh Nepal
11:05 – 11:20

11:50 – 12:20
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology:
sources, shifts and extremes
 Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range,
India
 Projected changes on climate ,runoff and flood/drought in
the Indus River
Discussion
12:20 – 13:30
Lunch
13:30 – 14:30
Session 8: Climate induced hazards and risk
11:20 – 11:35
11:35 – 11:50

Arthur Lutz, FutureWater

Renoj Thayyen, NIH

Jiang Tong, NCC ,CMA
Chair: Shakil Ahmad Ramshoo Rapporteur: Maxime Litt
Assessment of climate induced hazards and risk in Indus and mitigation measures, risk mapping,
early warning systems, community based approaches, satellite based approach etc.
13:30 – 13:45

13:45 – 14:00
14:00 – 14:15


14:15 – 14:30
Discussion
14:30 -15:30
Session 9: Adaptation strategies at local and basin level

Managing risks in the Upper Indus Basin: CommunityCentric Disaster Risk Reduction Approach
Climate related hazards in the Upper Indus Basin
GLOF Hazard in the Upper Indus Basin


Nusrat Nasab, Focus
Humanitarian Assistance
Babar Khan, WWF
Samjwal Bajracharya,
ICIMOD
Chair: Mohammad Wasim Iqbal Rapporteur: Abid Hussain
Issues and options on domestic and agricultural water management in Indus Basin (country
presentation), irrigation and hydropower, good practices and examples of water management
options in arid and semiarid parts of Indus Basin
14:30 – 14:45

14:45 – 15:00
15:00 – 15:15


15:15 – 15:30
45
Water, Energy and Food Nexus in Pakistan: Implication for
adaptation
Water and agriculture in the Lower Indus
Merging community-generated observations with large-scale
data sources for increased resilience of Himalayan
communities
Discussion

Golam Rasul, ICIMOD


Anwar Arif, IWMI
Nathan Forsythe, Newcastle
University
15:30 – 15:50
Tea/Coffee break
15:50 – 16:50
Closing session of the conference

15:50 – 16:35
16:35 – 16:50

Summary and Way Forward

Concluding Remarks
Philippus Wester,
ICIMOD (facilitation)
Eklabya Sharma, ICIMOD
Day 4: February 19 – Post-conference event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum workshop
09:30 – 11:00
Update on Indus Basin Initiatives



11:00 – 12:30
UIB Network
Indus Forum – Assessing Climate Change Impacts &
Glacier Knowledge Mapping

IWMI informing change in the Indus Basin Program


Khalid Mohtadullah, UIB
Network
Shakil Romshoo, Univ. of
Kashmir
Alan Nicol, IWMI
Breakout Group Discussion (Coffee/Tea included)



Identifying knowledge gaps and research needs in water

resources assessment and integrated management – are
proposed research projects closing those gaps?
Suggestions for enhancing collaboration and exchange of
information amongst research projects and initiatives across
all basin countries
Strengthening linkage between research and policy for
improved decision making in trans-boundary water resources
management
Christina Leb; Arun Shrestha;
Philippus Wester
(facilitation)
Reporting Back to the Plenary
12:30 – 14:00
Lunch
14:00 – 15:00
Group discussion on Next Steps


15:00 – 16:00
46
Coordination and Collaboration among UIB Network and
Indus Forum
Next steps in developing the Forum
Closing Session

Alan Nicol (facilitation)