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CONFERENCE REPORT International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters 16–19 February 2016 ICIMOD Conference Hall, Kathmandu, Nepal 1 Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 Objective of the Conference ................................................................................................................................... 5 Day 1. The Pre-Conference Workshop Organized by IWMI ................................................................................... 6 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 6 Day 2. International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters ............ 6 Opening Session ...................................................................................................................... 6 Welcome remarks from ICIMOD ................................................................................................ 6 Welcome remarks from the World Bank ..................................................................................... 6 Welcome remarks from IWMI ................................................................................................... 6 Remarks by the representative of Afghanistan .............................................................................. 7 Remarks by the representative of China ..................................................................................... 7 Remarks by the representative of India ...................................................................................... 7 Remarks by the chief guest and representative of Pakistan............................................................ 7 Workshop background, objectives, and expected outputs ................................................................ 8 Session 1: Keynote and Background Papers on Different Topics ........................................................ 8 Climate and climate change in the Indus basin: How can research help? ........................................ 8 Recent progress in understanding changes in climate, glaciers, and water resources of the upper Indus 8 Socioeconomic challenges facing the Indus basin ......................................................................... 9 Session 2: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session ..................... 9 Glacier observation in the Hunza River since 2010 ...................................................................... 9 Field campaign and long-term monitoring in the upper Indus basin: Characteristics, problems and recommendations .................................................................................................................... 9 The Upper Indus Basin Network .............................................................................................. 10 The Indus Forum .................................................................................................................. 10 Session 3: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session (continued) .. 10 Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and capacity building activities in Pakistan ................. 10 IWMI .................................................................................................................................. 10 Session 4: Climate Change and Variability in the Indus Basin ......................................................... 11 Results of the PMD’s research ............................................................................................... 11 Sub-regional process changes in the western Himalayas .............................................................. 11 Climate variability in the upper Indus basin: Trying to explain the Karakoram anomaly ....................... 11 Projected climate change over the Indus river basin using CORDEX-SA models ............................... 11 Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin ..................................................................... 12 Modelling the future changes in cryosphere of Indus basin ........................................................... 12 2 A Karakoram anomaly update .................................................................................................. 12 Glacier changes in the upper Indus basin ................................................................................. 12 Debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: Their dynamics, surface processes, contribution to mass balance ............................................................................................................................... 12 Day 3: International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters (continued) ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin (continued) .................................................... 13 Impact of changing climate on glacio-hydrology in Baspa basin ..................................................... 13 Snow cover variability over the western Himalayas and its influence on livelihoods of local communities 13 Session 6: Country Reports on Climate, Hydrology, and Cryosphere Data Collection and Sharing – Ongoing and New Initiatives ...................................................................................................... 14 Country report on climate, hydrology, and cryosphere data collection Afghanistan .............................. 14 Ongoing and new initiatives in data collection and sharing, China .................................................. 14 Indus basin report: India ........................................................................................................ 14 Glacier monitoring: WAPDA’s initiative in the upper Indus basin .................................................... 15 Session 7: Hydrological Regime, Water Availability, and Demand ...................................................... 15 Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: Sources, shifts, and extremes ....................... 15 Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range, India ..................................................... 15 China’s contribution to the Indus Forum: Changes of observation and projection in climate, runoff, and flood/drought over the Indus river basin.................................................................................... 15 Session 8: Climate-Induced Hazards and Risks ............................................................................ 16 Managing risks in the upper Indus basin: Community-centric disaster risk reduction approach .............. 16 Climate related hazard risks in UIB: Case of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral in Pakistan ......................... 16 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards in the Upper Indus Basin ........................................ 16 Session 9: Adaptation Strategies at the Local and Basin Levels ...................................................... 17 Water, energy, and food nexus in Pakistan: Implications for adaptation ........................................... 17 Good practices and examples of water management options in arid and semi-arid parts of the Indus basin .................................................................................................................................. 17 Merging community-generated observations with large-scale data sources for increased resilience of Himalayan communities ........................................................................................................... 17 Closing session ....................................................................................................................... 18 Brainstorming exercise (previously reserved for ‘Summary and way forward’) .................................. 18 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................... 21 Day 4. Post-Conference Event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum Workshop .................................... 21 Update on Indus Basin Initiatives ................................................................................................ 21 Upper Indus Basin Network .................................................................................................... 21 Indus Forum ....................................................................................................................... 22 3 World Bank ........................................................................................................................ 22 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ...................................................................... 23 IWMI ................................................................................................................................. 23 DFAT-CSIRO ...................................................................................................................... 23 Breakout Group Discussion ....................................................................................................... 23 Group Discussion on Next Steps ............................................................................................... 26 Closing Session...................................................................................................................... 27 Annexes ............................................................................................................................................................... 28 Annex 1: Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 28 Annex 2: Participants List ........................................................................................................ 29 Annex 3: Conference Agenda ................................................................................................... 42 4 Introduction The Indus River Basin is shared by four countries Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan, with the largest portions of the basin lying in Pakistan (52%) and India (33%). The main river originates at Lake Ngangla Rinco on the Tibetan Plateau in the People’s Republic of China and includes the tributaries Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej in India, Swat, Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Indus, Shingo, Astor, Jhelum and Chenab in Pakistan and the Kabul River draining parts of Afghanistan. The Indus Basin ranks among the most important basins of the world in terms of human dependence. The river supports a population of about 215 million people, whose livelihoods are directly or indirectly dependent on it. This leads to a very high population density in the basin and an approximate water availability of 1,329 m3 per head. In total the Indus River Basin is estimated to have a total hydropower potential of 55,000 MW, out of which about 35,700 MW are technically feasible. At present, only 6,444 MW, i.e., about 12% of the potential are harnessed. Socioeconomic development of the countries sharing the basin therefore largely depends on optimal utilisation and prudent management of the precious water resources of the Indus River basin. High rates of population increase in the region and associated socio-economic problems have been further aggravated by recent climate change impacts which have produced more stress on the water resources in the Indus River Basin system. The lower part of the Basin is now one of the most water-stressed areas in the world and the situation is going to further deteriorate in future to reach permanent water scarcity. Anomalous weather episodes may increase the risk of flooding and/or droughts in the region. Extreme events such as intense rainfall and prolonged droughts are expected. In addition to these issues, the impact of climate change looms across the region. One of the key areas where climate change is likely to have a severe impact is the cryosphere and dependent water supply. In the Indus basin the runoff is generated predominantly due to melting of snow and ice. Disruption in the hydrological regime can have serious impacts on the lives and livelihoods of the peoples living in the basin. It is important to understand the possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of river basins for better planning and implementation of adaptation measures. Policy and decision makers increasingly stress the need to improve the monitoring schemes of snow, ice and water resources in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region to support evidence-based adaptation planning. Several initiatives are being implemented in the basin by national and international agencies and academic institutions. It is widely recognised that proper sharing of information on these initiatives will result in more effective support to the wider policy environment which is critical to addressing the range of challenges facing the Basin Objective of the Conference The main aim of the international conference was to build better understanding of ongoing research and interventions related to climate change and adaptation, the cryosphere and waters of the Indus basin. It was also aimed at providing the latest understanding of physical processes related to climate, cryosphere changes and water availability, including current and future trends in water demand. The conference attempted to develop a framework to synergise the research and implementation efforts of various institutions and individuals. The conference was focused on presentation of current programmes and status of research in the style of a Scientific Conference. Pre- and post-conference workshops was organised on 16 and 19 February with smaller numbers of the participants. The pre-conference workshop on the 16th February The post-conference workshop on Day 4 (19 February) was dedicated to Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Network and Indus Forum discussions on how the available research can inform policy and how to fill research gaps. UIB/Indus Forum discussions was informed by international scientists invited to the conference. 5 Day 1. The Pre-Conference Workshop Organized by IWMI Summary The day, discussed the Informing Change in the Indus Basin (ICIB) project, which will be implemented in the next two years. The ICIB project, financed by DFID under the South Asia Water Governance Program, has three main components based on knowledge share, decision-making mechanisms and dialog. Furthermore this project aims to contribute to strengthen and foster positive change in the basin. The purpose of the February 16 meeting was to seek ways of strengthening decision making in this complex geography based on the premise that building more inclusive decision support environments linking knowledge through GIS systems with critical challenges facing the basin can improve development outcomes and reduce risks (component 2A). Day 2. International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters Opening Session Welcome remarks from ICIMOD Eklabya Sharma (Director Programme Operations, ICIMOD) welcomed distinguished guests and participants to the opening day and expressed great pleasure in jointly organising the conference with the International Water Management Institute and the World Bank. He introduced ICIMOD, its objectives, work areas, themes and programmes. “The Indus River Basin is one of the most important basins in the HKH region because of Photo 1: The opening session heavy dependence of downstream communities on its glacial melt waters” said Sharma. He also highlighted the importance of regional collaboration for meaningful research in the region. Welcome remarks from the World Bank Christina Leb (Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank) highlighted the importance of discussing climate change impacts in the Indus Basin. Of the south-flowing river basins originating in the Greater Himalayas, the Indus River is the one most dependent on snow and glacier melt in terms of flow contributions and thus at particular risk in the face of climate-induced glacier melt and change in precipitation patterns. The World Bank is involved in the Indus Basin through the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI), which is financed by the Governments of the United Kingdom, Australia, and Norway. SAWI facilitates a basin-level dialogue, the Indus Forum, which has been active since 2013. “Through the dialogue process, participants from the four countries sharing the Indus Basin have identified climate change as a topic on which they should work together” said Leb. Welcome remarks from IWMI Alan Nicol (Theme Leader, IWMI) was delighted to be one of the co-organisers of the conference. The Indus Basin is part of IWMI’s broader research portfolio on river basins around the world. IWMI is currently 6 implementing a two-year DFID-funded project under the South Asia Water Governance Programme called Informing Change in the Indus Basin. Nicol highlighted the importance of collective action in addressing the major challenges facing the Indus Basin and concluded by underscoring the importance of a people-centred approach to basin developing given that the lives and livelihoods of the different peoples of the basin are under threat due to climate change and other key factors. Remarks by the representative of Afghanistan Fazul Haq Bakhtari (Director Water Resources, Ministry of Energy and Water) conveyed the good wishes of Ali Ahmad Osmani, Afghanistan’s Minister of Water and Energy, for conducting a successful conference with practical outcomes. He noted that the conference was a good platform to discuss shared problems and build trust in order to work together to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In the context of Afghanistan, these impacts include changes in the growing seasons of major crops, early melting of snow, reduction in natural reservoir capacity, etc. Bakhtari concluded his remarks by urging donors and researchers towards more collaborative research and knowledge sharing among Photo 2: Honourable Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan Hafiz riparian countries. Hafeez-ur-Rehman delivering the inaugural address Remarks by the representative of China Sun Yuan from the National Climate Centre (NCC, under the China Meteorological Administration) thanked the co-organisers for putting together a conference that brought together all four countries of the Indus Basin. In his brief introduction to the NCC, he described it as an important regional climate centre in Asia and emphasised its dedication to innovation in climate services that help decision-making. Reminding ICIMOD about its partnership with the CMA for an international conference 13 years ago, Yuan expressed his desire to see a greater number of fruitful collaborations in the region. Remarks by the representative of India Anil Kulkarni from the Divecha Centre for Climate Change explained that the Indus is a key basin for his country because large irrigation systems are dependent on it. In this context, the Government of India understands the importance of monitoring the cryosphere. It has invested substantial resources in this field and, as a result, more than 45 projects are actively monitoring the cryosphere in the Himalayas. Many of these projects are focused on the Indus and will produce a substantial body of knowledge on the basin in the coming years. However, according to Kulkarni, more collaboration is needed with regional partners, particularly on trans-boundary issues. Remarks by the chief guest and representative of Pakistan The Honourable Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, Hafeez-ur-Rehman, remarked that the impacts of climate change are palpable in his region.The seasonal shift in snowfall to late spring and subsequent heat waves have caused rapid melting of snow preventing glacier formation, causing flash floods and avalanches, and loss of life and property. The Honourable Chief Minister announced that the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan has taken the issue very seriously and is in the process of formulating a climate change strategy, which will be the first of its kind in Pakistan. In this context, he extended his appreciation to ICIMOD for its effort to support the mountain communities in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and to all the organisers for 7 putting together a conference that will help shape his government’s policies regarding adaptation to climate change. Workshop background, objectives, and expected outputs Arun Shrestha from ICIMOD outlined the objectives of the conference: 1 2 To share knowledge about the physical processes and social transformations occurring in the Indus Basin, how these two factors interact, and how to adequately address any negative consequences of this interaction. To coordinate various initiatives and promote the sharing of knowledge and data so that knowledge gaps can be bridged. To enhance coordination among donors by informing them on what is happening in the Indus and the interventions that are required, so that they can plan their future investments accordingly. Session 1: Keynote and Background Papers on Different Topics Chair: Eklabya Sharma Rapporteur: Faisal Mueen Qamer Climate and climate change in the Indus basin: How can research help? Danial Hashmi (Former Director, Snow & Ice Hydrology Project, WAPDA) introduced the significance of the Indus Basin as well as some of the observed temperature and precipitation trends in the upper segments of the basin. He highlighted the impacts of climate change on the cryosphere of the Karakoram and Himalayas. In contrast to the Karakoram anomaly, his research inferred thinning, retreat, and negative mass balance of glaciers. However, his analysis for the August flows from the three most glaciated watersheds of the UIB showed that glacier mass balance is negative in the Central and Eastern Karakoram, but positive in the Western segments. He recommended the development of high resolution climate change and weather scenarios for better water management. Moreover, he emphasised research on depletion of groundwater and improving hydraulic structure design in the context of climate change scenarios. Recent progress in understanding changes in climate, glaciers, and water resources of the upper Indus Walter Immerzeel (Assistant Professor-Universiteit Utrecht, Netherland) presented his research findings on climate change impacts on the UIB. Based on the ground data analysis, he reported that precipitation has not sufficiently changed, however, a decrease in summer mean and minimum temperature has been observed. He also observed decline in Hunza River flow over the last decade. From projected climate scenarios, he observed a rise in temperature by an average of 2 °C and a modest increase in precipitation by mid-century, which will increase glacier melt in the near future but decrease in the long term. Moreover, he predicted a decrease in peak flows of rivers during the summer, but increases during the monsoons. Highlighting the future challenges, he underlined the importance of reconciling the observed trends in temperature, precipitation, stream flow and overall loss in glacial mass. He illustrated the importance of understanding the Karakoram anomaly and feedbacks between the cryosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. Similarly, he highlighted the importance of bridging the scale gap between climate models, hydrological models, and scarce observations. 8 Socioeconomic challenges facing the Indus basin Alan Nicol (Theme Leader Governance, Gender and Poverty at IWMI and leader of the DFID-funded Informing Change in the Indus Basin programme) presented the socio-economic challenges facing the Indus Basin. “About 300 million people are dependent on the waters of the Indus Basin, and there is immense pressure on supply due to demographic drivers like population growth and rapid urbanisation” said Nicol. He emphasized Pakistan’s water stress. The country has already reached the limit of available water. There is an urgent need for re-engineering agricultural water demand to confront underground water pollution and over-exploitation within irrigation systems. He explained that research points to demographic pressures on Pakistan’s water resources being some four times as strong as those exerted by long-term shifts due to climate change. He also stressed that the socio-economic challenges surrounding water availability in the Indus received far less attention and resources than did the impacts of climate change, which would need rebalancing in the long term. Session 2: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session Chair: Jiang Tong Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal Glacier observation in the Hunza River since 2010 Shangguan Donghui from CAREERI, presented the Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute’s study on the Batura Glacier in Hunza Valley. According to Donghui, there has been very little research conducted on glacier dynamics on Batura despite the fact that it is highly glaciated. CAREERI has been conducting research on Batura Glacier since mid-70s. Donghui highlighted the impacts of glacial movements on the Karakoram Highway, which once destroyed the Batura Bridge, although, such movement stopped in 1995. He informed the participants that CAREERI started monitoring metrological data and glacier mass balance of the Batura glacier during 2003. Based on his organization’s research findings, he demonstrated that the ablation is three times higher now in comparison to the mid-70s. Moreover, the snout of the glacier is accelerating and there is an obvious increase in surface ablation in the lower parts of the glacier. Field campaign and long-term monitoring in the upper Indus basin: Characteristics, problems and recommendations Matthias Winiger (Former Rector, University of Bonn, Germany) explained the research analysis of CAKAWS, elevation models, and run-off-data for the Batura glacier of 25 years which inferred that the UIB receives more rainfall than previously observed, especially at high altitudes. By highlighting the challenges, Winiger underlined that climate change models require validation with ground data analysis. He emphasized the need to use the same instruments, methodologies and standards to reduce the discrepancies observed in the results while studying hydro-climatic and glacier dynamics. Based on his organizational experiences he recommended the use of standardized instrumentation and the establishment of monitoring stations in the UIB. Moreover, he illustrated the importance of sharing the correct data through common platforms, such as ICIMOD’s knowledge platform, joint field experiments, courses, and workshops. 9 The Upper Indus Basin Network Khalid Mohtadullah (Chairman, UIB Network) introduced the UIB Network, its objectives, member organisations and its six working groups focused on different research areas. He also explained WG’s progress, the internal functioning and initiatives of the Network, as well as the current challenges that UIB is facing. He concluded by highlighting that the identified areas for strategic research should be addressed through an integrated funding proposal. Among these research areas he emphasized the importance of studying past and future climatic trends, their variability in the Basin, the state of the various components of the cryosphere and their changes with time, and impacts of these changes on future water availability. He also stressed the importance of improving data collection and quality control mechanisms, and promoting data dissemination platforms. The Indus Forum Senator Nisar Memon (Chairman, Water Environment Forum) introduced the Indus Forum: “It is an initiative that evolved from the regional Abu Dhabi Dialogue process and is facilitated through the South Asia Water Initiative implemented by the World Bank.” The first Indus Forum meeting was held in Afghanistan in 2013. Moreover, Senator Memon, highlighted the mission of the Forum, which is “to identify strategic opportunities for collaborative actions for on-the-ground results and to work with governments on issues such as water resource management and trans-boundary cooperation”. He also highlighted the actions achieved by the IF so far. To conclude, the speaker mentioned IF actions within Pakistan, including the work of the Water Environment Forum, which works at a national level. Session 3: Ongoing Programmes and Projects: Information Sharing and Feedback Session (continued) Chair: Jiang Tong Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and capacity building activities in Pakistan Geoffrey Podger (Scientist at CSIRO, Australia) presented on the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s collaborative three-year project with the Pakistani government on the Indus Basin. “As an implementing partner, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation has been addressing Action Area 5 of the ADB’s Water Sector Task Force Report, which recommends the implementation of Australian water management technologies and associated capacity building for Pakistan” said Podger. Podger recommended capacity building, improved climate change understanding, improved seasonal flow forecasts, daily water allocation modelling, improved understanding on groundwater and assessing gender and livelihood impacts for integrated and sustainable water resources management in the Basin. IWMI Alan Nicol summarised the main components of Informing Change in the Indus Basin (ICIB), a 2-year project funded by DFID under the South Asia Water Governance Programme. Implemented by IWMI, the project is focused on 1) consolidating and sharing knowledge; 2) building stronger decision making capacities and 3) enhancing dialogue at different levels. The programme is building an Indus Basin Knowledge Platform (IBKP) to harness and share key knowledge on development issues in the basin, as well as supporting the development of tools to address complex decision making environments in different 10 parts of the Indus system. Dialogues are being facilitated at the inter-provincial level in Pakistan, at the basin-wide level through support to the Indus Forum and through a media dialogue across Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan. The project aims to support the SAWGP’s vision for increased regional cooperation in the management of Himalayan river systems to deliver sustainable, fair, and inclusive development. Session 4: Climate Change and Variability in the Indus Basin Chair: Khalid Mohtadullah Rapporteur: Sagar Bajracharya Results of the PMD’s research From Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Azmat Hayat Khan presented his organization’s research findings in UIB. Talking about the precipitation, he explained that a negative trend in precipitation has been observed across the HKH region during the last 110 years. This means that more efficient water management will be needed in the future. However, the precipitation trend has been fairly stable in the Upper Indus during the same time period. On hazard and monitoring, Hayat Khan informed participants that PMD has been monitoring potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Between 2001 and 2013, the number of GLOF-type lakes that were identified in Pakistan decreased from 52 to 36, which means that 16 lakes burst during that period. To address this, early warning systems have been established by the PMD in Bagrote Valley to reduce the impact of such events in high-risk areas. Sub-regional process changes in the western Himalayas A. P. Dimri (Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India) presented the research findings on subregional process changes in the Western Himalayas. “In the UIB, temperature changes are prominent, especially in the wintertime, under all future scenarios” said Dimri. He observed more than 30 percent decrease in total annual precipitation in the latter half of the 21st century under strongest warming scenario. Climate variability in the upper Indus basin: Trying to explain the Karakoram anomaly Hayley Fowler presented research undertaken by her team from Newcastle University, UK. The study attempts to explain the observed cooling in summer temperatures in the UIB, which seems to be associated with the stagnation and growth of certain glaciers, in contrast to that which is happening in the Himalayas and other parts of the world. Fowler explored some potential climatic drivers that could explain the cooling trend and asked if regional climate models could reproduce these drivers. Using her team’s findings, a Karakoram Oscillation Index has been defined to quantify the latitudinal position of the westerly jet upstream of the Himalayan arc, which explains a substantial portion of the Karakoram seasonal average temperature variance over recent decades. It is owing to sub-regional differences in Summer (JJA) Karakorum Oscillation Index (KOI) which constitutes a climatic mechanism to explain the Karakoram anomaly. Moreover, she added that global reanalyses can reproduce KOI’s influence on temperature, which suggests that global climate models are capable of reproducing the KOI function. Projected climate change over the Indus river basin using CORDEX-SA models Ashwini Climate Climate claimed 11 Kulkarni (Scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune) Research Program’s Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, has been that Zoomed models (like LMDZ, which is a part of CORDEX-SA) presented on the World South Asia. The Centre for leading this project. Kulkarni provides projections in much greater detail. It also makes multi-model simulations available, and thus helps examine and reduce uncertainties in model simulations. Based on her organization’s research findings, he informed participants that the Indus Basin climate is changing and will continue to change. The temperatures across the basin will increase by about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050. The corresponding increase in some of the northern parts will be more than 3 degrees, which may cause precipitation increase by 1 to 2 millimetres per day by 2050, with greater increases in the northern parts. The largest number of consecutive dry days may increase in the future, but extreme rainfall during single events will increase in the southern parts. Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan Modelling the future changes in cryosphere of Indus basin Anil Kulkarni (Distinguished Visiting Scientist at Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore) summarised some of his research on modelling the future of the cryosphere in the Indus Basin. He informed participants that most of field studies on 81 Himalayan Glaciers (35 of these lie in Indus Basin) in India were conducted between 1960 and 2000. These studies inferred that almost all glaciers in the Indian Himalayas are retreating with a mean retreat rate of 178 meters per decade. This is equivalent to a 3.7 percent loss of the glacial area per decade. A study on spatial distribution of glacial depth in the Satluj Basin was conducted to find the location of new lakes, which inferred that glacial depth varies between 50 to 400 meters. Since a great uncertainty of water volume stored in Himalayans glaciers has been found, there is scope in this area for further investigation. A Karakoram anomaly update Joseph Shea (Glacier Hydrologist at ICIMOD) presented updates on the Karakoram anomaly. He informed participants that the Karakoram anomaly was first identified by Hewitt during 2005, due to its exceptional and peculiar behaviour. This anomaly was further confirmed by conducting geodetic and climate studies. Most glaciers are surging glaciers, while debris cover is unchanged. Shea claimed that the possible anomaly mechanisms are elevation effects (orographic precipitation occurring between 5000 and 6000 meters), supra-glacial debris which may insulate glacial surface, and general climatology and climate change. He emphasised the need for more spatial and temporal geodetic studies, and high resolution weather modelling to fully understand the anomaly. Glacier changes in the upper Indus basin Tobias Bolch (Senior Researcher at University of Zurich – Irchel, Switzerland) presented the geodetic mass balance of UIB. He explained that most Karakoram glaciers are surging with a repeat cycle of around 50 years. However two neighbouring glaciers are behaving differently. Further, he added that the geodetic studies indicated positive mass balance in Karakorum during 21 st century, while Hunza Valley glaciers have been in balance since 1970s. He emphasized the need to develop a more comprehensive understanding on the climatology, hydrology and in situ mass balance studies on the Karakoram. Debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: Their dynamics, surface processes, contribution to mass balance Pascal Buri (PhD student at ETH Zurich, Switzerland) presented his research findings on debris-covered glaciers in the high mountains of Asia. He explained that a significant portion of the total glacial area in 12 the HKH Region is covered with debris. Roughly one fifth in the Indus Basin, which affects glacial melt and, therefore, runoff. A thin layer of debris increases the melt rate through increased absorption of solar radiation, whereas a thick layer decreases it through insulation of the underlying ice. Explaining the study conducted on five debris-covered glaciers in Langtang Valley, Buri explained that thinning rates of debris-covered tongues are not dependent on elevation. Thinning hot spots are found where supra-glacial cliffs and lakes are present. Moreover, volume loss rates increase over time where supra-glacial cliffs and lakes are present. Thinning rates are constant or decreasing where debris layers are homogeneous. In general, mass balances become more negative, but there is strong local variability. He emphasized the need to research and quantify the role of cliffs and lakes, and to document the characteristics of debris-covered glaciers across high-mountain Asia. Day 3: International Conference on Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters (continued) Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin (continued) Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan Impact of changing climate on glacio-hydrology in Baspa basin Rajesh Kumar (Associate Professor and Head, Department of Environmental Science, School of Basic Sciences and Research, Sharda University) explained his study results on climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology in the Baspa Basin. He informed participants that reanalysis temperature data suggests a rise in mean temperatures in the Naradu basin between 1985 and 2014 (maximum temperature by 0.58 degrees Celsius per decade and minimum by 0.55), which have resulted in glacial mass loss in glaciers of the Baspa Basin. He also found that there was a continuous increase in the equilibrium-line altitude by 112 metres between 1979 and 2013. Kumar concluded that the average snout retreat rates in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are 17.25, 17.19 and 19.38 metres per year respectively. The average specific mass balance of all glaciers in the Indian Himalayan Region (with observed data from more than five years) is -0.60 meters water equivalent per year. The snow cover, discharge, and average temperature in the Baspa Basin show strong correlations. The studies and data available for the Indian Himalayan Region are fragmented and cover short durations. Hence, there is not enough information to form conclusions about climate change impacts with a high degree of confidence. He recommended more studies under a longer-term mission rather than in smaller project mode and also promoted more data sharing for better results. Snow cover variability over the western Himalayas and its influence on livelihoods of local communities Shresth Tayal (Fellow at the Energy & Resources Institute, New Delhi) presented case studies on the Chenab and Jhelum Basins, which fall under TERI’s Glacier Research Programme. The studies were conducted to understand the impact of climate change on cryospheric contribution to rivers in the Western Himalayas, as well as subsequent impact on local communities. From the research he showed that snow cover analysis using MODIS data from 2001 to 2014 indicates a temporal shift in snowfall in recent years. Using the HBV model snow cover and glacial losses with runoff patterns in the river valleys was observed. 13 Moreover, downscaled CORDEX data on temperature and precipitation has been used to understand the change in discharge. While sharing the research on impact of cryosphere variability on socio-economic status of downstream communities, Tayal showed that in two communities in Poonch and Badgam Districts of Jammu and Kashmir with similar levels of adaptive capacities and exposure to Climate change there can be drastic differences in vulnerabilities owing to anthropogenic activities. Session 6: Country Reports on Climate, Hydrology, and Cryosphere Data Collection and Sharing – Ongoing and New Initiatives Chair: Philippus Wester Rapporteur: Sharad Joshi Country report on climate, hydrology, and cryosphere data collection Afghanistan Wasim Iqbal (Advisor at Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) updated the audience on Afghanistan’s strategies and actions on climate, hydrology and cryosphere data collection and sharing. “The Kabul River Basin generates 40 percent of Afghanistan’s total runoff, providing 28 percent of the total water supply for irrigation and supporting 35 percent of the population” said Iqbal. He talked about a recent Asian Development Bank study on Afghanistan’s major climate change impacts, which are: average rise in temperature of 3.5 to 4 o C by 2065, snow cover depth will decline, snowmelt runoff during spring will be reduced, and that there would be a further retreat and disappearance of glaciers. Addressing the deeper impacts of Climate change on the Kabul Basin, he added that significant changes have been observed in stream-flow patterns with higher peak flows, shorter high-flow periods, and reduced annual discharge in the upper regions of the Basin. Moreover, the growing season has shifted forward by up to 30 days. He also reviewed and explained Afghanistan’s Climate and WRM monitoring systems and challenges. There are 13 Sub Basins of the Kabul River, for which Afghanistan has 35 hydrological stations and 16 meteorological stations for collecting data. To conclude, Iqbal highlighted the fact that Afghanistan has recently started climate change action and planning and that Afghanistan was committed to a Low-Carbon Development Path. Ongoing and new initiatives in data collection and sharing, China Shangguan Donghui from CAREERI, presented China’s progress in climate change studies in the Indus Basin. He informed participants that Chinese researchers have been actively studying the Indus Basin (only 8 percent of which is in China) using human observations, unmanned aerial vehicles, and data from Landsat, MODIS since the 1970s. One such example is Careeri’s research on the Batura Glacier (using stakes to measure ablation). Moreover, Chinese satellites in the Fengyun series are being used to study snow cover, surface temperature, and precipitation. Indus basin report: India Explaining India’s progress on climate change impact studies, Renoj Thayyen (Scientist at National Institute of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, and India) informed that his institute has new initiatives, which include runoff studies in the upper Shyok Basin and surface energy balance studies on the Phuche and Khardung Glaciers. Moreover, the NIH and ICIMOD are co-organising an international workshop on climate change impacts on Himalayan permafrost in August 2016. He also explained that the Institute has conducted studies on isotopic characterisation in Jammu and Kashmir. The observations show that, even though the glaciers in Ladakh are higher in altitude than those in Zanskar, the glacial ice from both regions show similar isotopic characteristics. The study suggests that 14 the climatic regime (i.e. the cold-arid system processes) is driving the melting of these glaciers. Of these forces, sublimation is a key component. Glacier monitoring: WAPDA’s initiative in the upper Indus basin Danial Hashmi on behalf of Asim Rauf Khan (Project Director GMRC WAPDA), presented the glacier monitoring initiative by Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority-WAPDA. He explained that WAPDA estimates snow and glacial melt contribute 73.1 percent to the total runoff from the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers. He also explained that WAPDA has been monitoring the cryosphere since the 1960s and that a high-altitude network comprising 20 weather stations was established in the UIB by the 90s. The data from these stations is used to forecast river flows for the Indus, Kabul, and Jhelum Rivers. He also informed participants that many field activities have been planned for 2016: including glacier melt investigations in Hispar, Biafo, and Rakhiot Glaciers; snout surveys in Batura, Biafo, Hispar, Rakhiot, Yashkuk Yaz, Gulmit, etc.; and discharge measurements in rivers such as the Nagar, Hispar, and Shimshall. Session 7: Hydrological Regime, Water Availability, and Demand Chair: Nisar Memon Rapporteur: Santosh Nepal Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: Sources, shifts, and extremes Arthur Lutz (Researcher/Consultant, FutureWater/Utrecht University) outlined the methodologies and conclusion from his research with ICIMOD on the upper Indus hydrology. He described the methodology of the distributed cryospheric-hydrological model which was set up at high resolution for a 30-year reference period between 1971 and 2000. The study was conducted for the first basin-scale assessment of shifts in seasonal water availability and hydrological extremes for the UIB, which inferred that the projected water availability in the long run is very uncertain (between -15 to +60 percent by the end of the century). Moreover, the study projects some consistent seasonal shifts: minor increases in summer flows and increased flows in other seasons between 2021 and 2050, and decreases in summer flows and stronger increases in other seasons between 2071 and 2100. Similarly, increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are projected for most parts of the UIB under most scenarios. Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range, India Renoj Thayyen (Scientist at National Institute of Hydrology, India) presented research findings on the Ganglas catchment in Leh. He explained that cold-arid regime hydrology is characterised by a steep hydrological gradient due to steep precipitation and temperature gradients. Furthermore, the uncertainty in discharge in May and June is the most challenging aspect for water management. He also added that additional contributions from the melting of ground ice could play an important role in cold-arid regime hydrology. Cold-arid regimes experience high mean monthly slope environmental lapse rates for entire altitude ranges between March and September, when compared with nival regimes. Hence, SELR modelling is more helpful in extrapolating temperatures to higher altitudes. China’s contribution to the Indus Forum: Changes of observation and projection in climate, runoff, and flood/drought over the Indus river basin From his main research findings, Jiang Tong from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) briefed that relative to a baseline period between 1986 and 2005, the mean annual temperature between 2015 and 15 2050 will increase in the entire basin, with the greatest changes occurring in the Indus Basin upper portion, under all three RCP scenarios used in the study (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Summer temperatures will consistently increase in the entire basin, most significantly in the Indus Basin upper portion. Further melting of glaciers will occur in the future. Moreover, spring and winter precipitation will increase at high altitudes and contribute to the accumulation of glaciers and water resources. Summer precipitation will increase over the whole basin, which will increase the risk of flooding. He added that the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events will increase under all RCP scenarios between 2015 and 2050. Photo 3: Nusrat Nasab presenting on the community-centric disaster risk reduction approach Session 8: Climate-Induced Hazards and Risks Chair: Shakil Ahmad Romshoo Rapporteur: Maxime Litt Managing risks in the upper Indus basin: Community-centric disaster risk reduction approach Nusrat Nasab (Chief Executive Officer of Focus Humanitarian Assistance, Pakistan) presented a summary of the experiences of Focus Humanitarian Assistance-Pakistan in the HKH region. She introduced her organization, focus areas and approaches to response disasters. Focus has created detailed hazard maps for 659 villages in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, where it is most active. Of these, 620 villages lie in the four most vulnerable districts, where 125 villages are highly susceptible to multiple hazards. Introducing the community-based early warning mechanism, she explained that Focus has taken up a community-based risk management model. For example, the early warning systems that have been implemented by the organisation utilise mosques to disseminate information. Focus has trained over 35,000 volunteers for community-level emergency responses. Over the years, the organisation has learned that building the capacity of local communities and governments helps minimise risk. Climate related hazard risks in UIB: Case of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral in Pakistan Babar Khan (Senior Conservation Manager and Head of WWF, Gilgit) highlighted the climate-related hazards in UIB. He explained that climate change has triggered erratic floods, snow avalanches, surging glaciers, GLOFs, and landslides. Highlighting the impacts of climate change, he explained that lives and livelihoods of people are at high risk and science-based mitigation is needed. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards in the Upper Indus Basin Samjwal Bajracharya (Remote Sensing specialist at ICIMOD) presented the results of research conducted by ICIMOD on GLOF hazards in the Indus Basin UIB. He told the audience that 57 GLOF events had been recorded in the UIB since 1826 onwards. Of these, 13 events had been recorded since 2000. He stated that climate change, the associated increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, and shifts in monsoon patterns are rapidly changing the glaciers of the UIB. Such changes are bound to increase the occurrence of GLOFs in the future. Moreover, he explained that 52 lakes in the UIB were 16 observed as potentially dangerous during a study in 2005 utilizing Landsat images. This data was recently updated during 2015 and shows that 39 of these lakes are now potentially dangerous. Session 9: Adaptation Strategies at the Local and Basin Levels Chair: Mohammad Wasim Iqbal Rapporteur: Abid Hussain Water, energy, and food nexus in Pakistan: Implications for adaptation Golam Rasul (Theme Leader, Livelihoods at ICIMOD) talked about the implications for adaptation under the water, energy and food nexus of Pakistan. He explained that Pakistan is ranked 76 out of 107 countries on the Global Food Security Index. This is because 58 percent of households in Pakistan are food insecure, one third of the population lacks safe drinking water, 30 percent population have no electricity and half the population still uses biomass fuels for cooking. He stated that the aforementioned scenario is due to the impacts of climate change on the Indus Basin, which has impacted water, energy and food security of the country. Moreover, population growth, the rise of the middle class and urbanisation have all increased demand for food as well as water for agriculture, energy, industry, and domestic use. Meanwhile, groundwater is depleting rapidly in many areas. He further suggested increasing water storage capacity, utilising hydropower potential more sustainably, and maintaining irrigation infrastructure for greater efficiency as a supply-side adaptation option to address the against aforementioned problems. Adaptation options on the demand side, he said, include incentivising water-saving technologies, growing crops that are less water-intensive, and engaging the private sector to find innovative solutions. Good practices and examples of water management options in arid and semi-arid parts of the Indus basin Arif Anwar from International Water Management Institute-Pakistan, informed participants that the lower Indus Basin is extremely arid, which is affecting land and water productivity. As adaptive measures, farmers have to reduce cropping intensity, cultivating low delta and water stress tolerant crops with lower yields. Alternatively, farmers use groundwater for supplemental irrigation which is affecting ground water levels in Indus Basin. He shared the research results being conducted by IWMI in the Lower Indus Basin observing the groundwater quality, which indicates that much of the groundwater is hazardous according to standards prescribed by WAPDA. Anwar also suggested other technological interventions including laser land grading and precision surface irrigation as well as adopting precisely-designed bed and furrows in fields to match soil characteristics, field characteristics and flow characteristics. Anwar described how IWMI has been introducing new technologies in these areas in order to make surface irrigation more knowledge based. However, the pressures on water for agriculture from population growth, climate change, and land degradation are significant. Merging community-generated observations with large-scale data sources for increased resilience of Himalayan communities Nathan Forsythe from Newcastle University shared the experience of involving the community in hydrometeorological monitoring in Ethiopia. The results showed that community-generated observational records can attain quality levels similar to formal monitoring networks. Such interventions could be viable and desirable in the UIB. Forsythe suggested the involvement of stakeholders in monitoring and vulnerability assessment which could yield bidirectional information exchange, leading to improvements in scientific understanding as well as local awareness and capacity. 17 Closing session The first segment of the closing session was moderated. Brainstorming exercise (previously reserved for ‘Summary and way forward’) Participants were asked to form groups of two-four people to respond to three questions with key words written on cards. The cards were then collected and arranged by session facilitators to draw core proposals on designing the way forward on research and policy in the Indus Basin through greater collaboration and coordination Indus Basin. 18 Photo 4: Presentation of the group discussion Question All Group Responses/Suggestions GROUP 1 GROUP 2 GROUP 3 Q1.What are the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed? Q2.How can we improve collaboration, cooperation, and data sharing between the four countries (governments, institutions and researchers)? Q3. How can we strengthen the links between science, policy, and practice and improve decision-making at various levels? a) The Karakoram anomaly. b) Knowledge on debris-covered glaciers. c) Climate model selection and diagnosis: why certain models reproduce observed patterns better than other? d) Higher resolution climate models that adequately simulate the interaction between Westerlies and Monsoon. e) The Indus Basin in Afghanistan. f) Black carbon, aerosols, and their implications. g) The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation at high altitudes. h) Knowledge on what the research means for communities. i) Water demand management. a) More joint research should be conducted. b) Policymakers in the four countries should be brought to the same table by creating a neutral platform. c) Common platforms should be created for sharing knowledge and data. d) More conferences should be organised. e) Collaboration should be started at the level of universities and research institutes. f) Protocols should be created for sharing data between governments as well as researchers. a) Research should be more solutiondriven. b) Communities should be included in resource management and field monitoring. c) Risks and hazards should be effectively conveyed to local communities using accessible languages. d) Scientific knowledge should be interpreted for target audiences. e) A ‘State of the Indus Report’ should be developed with chapters on the existing science and policy prescriptions. f) Media professionals should be engaged. g) Different media outlets can be used to target specific audiences. 19 Group Preferred Response after facilitated discussion After a discussion facilitated by Arun Shrestha (ICIMOD) and Undala Alam (DFID), all participants concluded that research focus should be on: (i) Implications of physical processes on the people, (ii) Water supply and demand, and (iii) Community led knowledge 20 The discussion, facilitated by Alan Nicol (IWMI) and Anjal Parkash (ICIMOD), concluded with key recommendations on: (i) data sharing through open access, (ii) to focus on cross-country research (iii) and to invest and build the capacity of the young generation. Christina Leb (WB) and John Dore (DFAT) facilitated the discussion and ended up with three key messages: (i) Build up the dialogue with policy makers, but do more than talk-i.e. take action, (ii) conduct policy relevant research, (iii) and undertake simplified but appropriate messaging, gaming and creative learning. Concluding remarks Eklabya Sharma (Director of Programme Operations, ICIMOD) noted that considerable progress had been made in the production of knowledge on the Indus Basin in recent years. Scientific papers on the basin were increasingly visible in journals and other knowledge platforms, he said. Communication between researchers, institutions, and knowledge networks, he remarked, had also increased. However, it would take time, energy, and resources to turn that communication into collaboration. After he outlined some of the key messages taken from previous days. He highlighted the need to address research challenges and gaps, such as the lack of monitoring systems or the Karakorum Anomaly. Moreover, he underscored the importance of investing on research with a solution-driven approach, focused on people and with the ability to communicate with decision makers and planners for achieving concrete action. To conclude, Sharma mentioned that the conference had led to a rich exchange of information. On behalf of ICIMOD, he proclaimed the organisation’s future commitment to the Indus Basin. In this context, he also announced a four-year programme that ICIMOD had recently launched for Afghanistan, with a significant budget allocation for research. Thanking the participants for the fruitful interactions, Sharma ended the conference. Day 4. Post-Conference Event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum Workshop Acting as the moderator for the final day of the conference, Christina Leb proposed that the discussions to follow, excluding presentations, be governed by the Chatham House Rule. 1 On account of no dissenting voice, the rule was adopted for the day. The schedule outlined in the tentative agenda was modified to include more presentations in the first segment. Update on Indus Basin Initiatives Upper Indus Basin Network The UIB Network’s six working groups have made considerable progress and several initiatives have been launched since the UIB Network was formally established: including the Himalayan University Consortium, HI-AWARE, a cryosphere programme with the KIU, GLOF monitoring with Focus, and water Photo 5: Discussion during the joint Upper Indus Basin management with the WWF. However, sustaining the Network and Indus Forum workshop momentum of the Network, developing an integrated funding proposal for future research, and maintaining regular communication among the working groups were noted as substantial challenges that lay ahead. When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. -See more at: www.chathamhouse.org/about/chatham-house-rule#sthash.M9rn3Cm0.dpuf 1 21 A member of each working group of the UIB Network gave updates on their progress. The moderator opened the floor for discussion and the participants recommended the following; Three new working groups should be created: a) to study the impact of aerosols and black carbon; b) to develop an understanding of socio-economies (for connecting physical sciences with social processes); and c) to build institutional capacity in integrated water management (to assist governments and policymakers). The UIB network should extend its focus beyond Pakistan to the eastern end of the UIB. Working Group 4 (Hydrology, water availability, and demand-basin scale) is currently working only on climate projections. The group should make its focus comprehensive by including the study of water cycles. Working Group 2 (Climate variability and trends) should be renamed to give it a broader scope e.g., climate scenarios and future projections. Indus Forum The Indus Forum serves as the only coordinated initiative among participants from the four basin countries for understanding the Indus Basin in its totality. In the current scenario, researchers are unaware of each other’s work and decision-makers are disconnected from what is happening in the scientific community, even though the implications of the melting cryosphere are immense. In this context, the Forum plays a critical role in bringing together the study of hydrology, glaciology, climatic processes and socio-economic processes at the basin level to enable informed decision-making for sustainable water-resource management. The Forum is currently developing a joint proposal for coordinated research. The presentation was followed by suggestions from the floor: There is substantial emphasis on the need to gather more data, but the qualitative aspects of data collection are often ignored. The UIB Network has been trying to promote common standards to increase comparability among studies emerging from the basin. The Indus Forum should be doing something similar. The goals of the Forum and the UIB Network have significant overlaps and the two should be coordinated Most of the research in the Indus utilises downscaling from global climate models. But global models do not seem to predict what is happening in the Himalayas because conditions in each sub-basins are very different. More “bottom up” data and research is needed. Among the various formats in which institutions can exist, a forum is a non-threatening space for countries to come together and discuss common issues. The Forum should try to use its current structure as a stepping-stone towards a joint commission or council. World Bank The World Bank is currently preparing a study on the glaciers of the Himalayas. The organization is interested in coordinating its research with existing institutional platforms. The focus of the work is on aerosols and black carbon, their impact on the region’s climate, and finding the optimal level complexity in cryosphere modelling. 22 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA is preparing a study on how global climate change scenarios impact water, energy, and land nexus. One of the case studies under this study is on the Indus. IIASA is seeking to link up with existing research initiatives working on the basin. IWMI IWMI’s Informing Change in the Indus Basin, which started at the end of 2015, aims to establish a knowledge network for research, linking scientific knowledge with policy constituencies, strengthening analytical capacities and creating dialogues between provincial and basin-level actors, as well as through the media. IWMI believes in a collaborative approach to develop the project and is inviting knowledge partners, particularly those interested in supporting basin-level dialogue. DFAT-CSIRO The CSIRO’s DFAT-sponsored engagement on modelling the Indus Basin together with Pakistan’s authorities is to help key national institutions build their capacity for integrated water research assessment and management. Some of the project’s goals include improving climate understanding to support sustainable water management, and developing an integrated modelling framework to provide a robust and transparent understanding of water resources of the Indus Basin. Breakout Group Discussion After presentations from representatives of various initiatives interested in and currently working on the Indus Basin, the moderator divided the participants into four groups to discuss the following questions: How can we initiate research and mutual stakeholder interaction across the four countries of the Indus Basin? How can we integrate UIB research/activities with impacts on the lower basin? How can we link the UIB Network, the Indus Forum, and other research initiatives? Discussions were followed by a plenary session at which a representative from each group presented his/her group’s recommendations. A brief summary of this session is tabulated below: 23 Groups Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 24 Q1. How can we initiate research and mutual stakeholder interaction across the four countries of the Indus Basin? Q2. How can we integrate UIB research/activities with impacts on the lower basin? Q3. How can we link the UIB Network, the Indus Forum and other research initiatives? a) Utilise universities and NGOs to collaborate in nonthreatening environments. b) Avoid politically sensitive issues and opt for neutral topics like land use. c) Focus on sharing knowledge, not data. d) Standardise research methods to generate comparable results. a) Create a clear research protocol/framework to guide research activities in each country. b) Identify a common knowledge platform/portal to share findings. c) Seek endorsements from the four governments. a) Conduct a scoping study to find out who is doing what so that overlaps and duplications can be minimised. The study could document the institutions involved in areas that fall under the current and proposed titles a) Exchange research papers. b) Conduct more studies on environmental degradation due to development. a) The Indus Forum should be in charge of dealing with transboundary issues and sensitive topics because of its intergovernmental focus. b) The Forum should guide the UIB Network on areas of joint research. a) Create a ‘Lower Indus Basin Network’ (secretariat at IWMI) to complement the UIB Network. The Indus Forum could act as the convener of the networks by organising an annual Indus conference. Same answer as of question 2. No Answer a) The UIB Network is primarily a knowledge network. The Forum’s institutional setup is more appropriate for creating dialogues that involve governments and stakeholders. b) Since ICIMOD is an intergovernmental organisation, it can play a role in pushing the Group 4 25 of the UIB Network’s working groups. b) Coordinate research across countries using the same models. By doing so, comparable results can be generated and shared, even though researchers within one country may not have access to data from another country. The UIB Network can provide the institutional space to pursue this option. a) Pick common topics that are not politically sensitive so that governments can come together. b) Pick common research agendas that researchers can pursue within their countries, so that results can be shared even when data cannot be shared. c) Create an email list with photos of all the participants at the conference. d) Collaborate through the Himalayan University Consortium. implications of the research that has been done into policymaking. c) Perhaps the UIB Network can focus on the upper Indus and the Indus Forum can focus on the Lower Indus. No Answer a) Create an inventory on who does what. b) While integrating the UIB Network, the Indus Forum, and other initiatives, there should only be one legal entity acting as the coordinator (perhaps ICIMOD because it has a long-term programmatic approach—as opposed to a project based approach). Group Discussion on Next Steps The final session included a plenary discussion on increasing coordination and collaboration between the UIB Network, the Indus Forum, and other initiatives. A proposal to broaden the scope of the UIB Network by adding working groups for the Lower Indus Basin and changing its name to ‘Indus Basin Network’ was rejected on account of reservations that doing so might dilute the Network’s focus on the UIB. Many participants echoed the importance of the ‘U’ in the UIB Network because the region is understudied but extremely significant in terms of the impacts that it has on the Lower Basin. In the end, the participants agreed that the Indus Forum—owing to its wider focus (the UIB Network is primarily a knowledge and research network)—should act as the convener of an annual Indus Basin Conference, where it can bring together the UIB Network and other initiatives for interactions between researchers, policymakers, stakeholders, and the media. Thus final conclusions were that: (a) the Indus Forum should perform two key functions: policy influence and research; (b) that it should be a platform that coordinates and integrates all projects, programmes and research, including the UIB network, which will remain as it is due to the high importance of the upper part of the Basin; and (c) that the UIB Network will add two more working groups, WGVII on aerosols and black carbon in UIB and WGVIII on Socio-economic impacts. Therefore the idea is to have an impact through strengthening the Forum and creating a credible facilitative mechanism for gaining political buy-in and emphasizing quality national engagements The following action points were agreed upon: 26 Develop an inventory of organisations and initiatives. Create an e-mail list with photos of all the participants. Continue the research focus on the UIB. The Indus Forum should be broadened to include more members. It should link up with initiatives in the lower basin. The Indus Forum should organise Indus Basin Conferences annually. The conferences should have tailored agendas. Closing Session The session and the week of meetings was closed by the Director Programmes of ICMIOD, Eklabya Sharma. Reiterating the importance of the Upper Indus with regard to the impacts that it has all along the basin, he appreciated the participants’ decision to support the UIB Network’s current research focus. Sharma declared the conference a success for meeting its objective of sharing knowledge with practical outcomes. He concluded by thanking IWMI and the World Bank for their support. 27 Annexes Annex 1: Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank CAREERI Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute CMA China Meteorological Administration CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Australia) DFID Department for International Development (UK) GLOF glacial lake outburst flood GCM general circulation model HI-AWARE Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (ICIMOD) HKH Hindu Kush Himalayan region ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IWMI International Water Management Institute KIU Karakoram International University MODIS moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer NCC National Climate Center (CMA) NIH National Institute of Hydrology (Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee) PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department RCP Representative Concentration Pathways SELR slope environmental lapse rate TERI The Energy and Resources Institute SAWGP South Asia Water Governance Programme UIB Upper Indus Basin WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority (Pakistan) 28 Annex 2: Participants List S. Participant name and contact information No Afghanistan 1 Mir Ahmad Ahmad Water Resources Specialist The World Bank Kabul Afghanistan Tel: 0093 700 212 455 ; +1 202 790 9955 Email: [email protected] 2 Sayed Sharif Shobair Technical Advisor, Ministry of Energy and Water ,Chief Engineer FAO-IRDP Ministry of Energy and Water /UNFAO Kabul Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Tel: +93(0)700 22 34 34 Email: [email protected] Mohamad Wasim Iqbal Senior Advisor to Minister Energy and Water Kabul Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Tel: +93 780119508 Email: [email protected] 3 4 5 29 Sediqa Hassani Adviser to DM Water Kabul Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Tel: +93 744411264 Email: [email protected] Fazul Haq Bakhtari Director, Water Resources Department ,Ministry Energy and Water Afghanistan Tel : 0799373732 Email: [email protected] China 6 Zhao Chengyi Head of Aksu Station Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi,Xinjiang China Tel: 0991-7885455 Email: [email protected] 7 Li Xiucang Water cycle and evapotranspiration National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Yunnan China Email: [email protected] 8 Xu Hongmei Professor, National Climate Center , CMA China Email: [email protected] 9 10 India 30 Sun Yuan International cooperation National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Yunnan China Email: [email protected] Donghui Shangguan State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Cold & Arid Regions Environmental & Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences 320# West Donggang Road, Lanzhou,Gansu, P.R.China Tel: 86-931-4967375 Email: [email protected] 11 A. P. Dimri Jawaharlal Nehru University New Mehrauli Road, Near Munirka, New Delhi, Delhi 110067, India Tel: 011- 26704319 EmInail: [email protected]; [email protected] 12 Rajesh Kumar Associate Professor M-11, South Extension, Part - II, New Delhi – 110049 India Email: [email protected] 13 Ashwini Kulkarni Scientist E , Project Director :short –term climate variability and prediction Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pashan Road, Panchawati, Pune, Maharashtra 411008 India Tel: 91 (020) 25893600 (O) Ext.234 Email: [email protected] Anil V Kulkarni Distinguished Visiting Scientist Divecha Centre for Climate Change Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore – 560012 India Email: [email protected] Shresth Tayal Adjunct Faculty, Department of Natural Resources Plot No. 10 Institutional Area Vasant Kunj New Delhi - 110 070 India Tel. +91 11 71800222 Email: [email protected] Renoj J.Thayyen Scientist National Institute of Hydrology Roorkee-247667 India (M) 9412074258 (0) 01332-249237 Email: [email protected] 14 15 16 31 17 Shakil Ahmad Ramshoo Head of Department, Earth Sciences University of Kashmir Hazratbal, Srinagar-190 006 (J&K) India. Phone: +91-(0)194-2422543, 2424146, 2420078 (Ext. 2161), Email: [email protected] Pakistan 18 Azmat Hayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Headquarters Office Sector H-8/2, Islamabad Phone: (+92-51) 9250360 Pakistan Email: [email protected] 19 Danial Hashmi Former Project Director Glacier Monitoring Research Centre Water and Power Development Authority Pakistan Tel: 92 (0)4237028376 , Mob 92 (0) 300 4344584 Email: [email protected] 20 21 22 32 Khalid Mohtadullah Chair, Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Network 41 T Street 10, DHA Phase II Lahore Cantt Pakistan Tel: 92 (0)42 35727905, Mob 92 (0) 300 8440 960 Email: [email protected] Nisar Memon Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology Nawaabshah Sindh, Pakistan Email: [email protected] Adnan Ahmed Tahir Assistant Professor/Researcher COMSATS Institute of Information Technology Abottabad Pakistan Email: [email protected] 23 24 Nusrat Nasab Chief Executive Officer Focus Humanitarian Assistance Level 9, Serena Business Complex, Khayaban-e-Suharwardy, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel:+92-51-2072500 Email: [email protected] Babar Khan Sr. Conservation Manager / Head WWF-Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan) P.O. Box: 5180; Ferozepur Road, Lahore, Pakistan Tel:+42-3586 2359-60 Email: [email protected] ; [email protected] 25 Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman, Honorable Chief Minister of Gilgit Baltistan, Chief Minister House, Chinaar Bagh, Gilgit, Pakistan Telephone: +92 5811 920464 Fax: +92 5811 920210 Email: [email protected] 26 Saleem Sadiq Joint Secretary Ministry of National Food Security and Research B-Block, Islamabad Pakistan Tel:+92 51 9201639 Email: [email protected] Interntational Experts 27 Walter Immerzeel Future Water Netherlands Email: [email protected] 28 Matthias Winiger University of Bonn Regina-Pacis-Weg 3 53113 Bonn Germany Email: [email protected] 33 29 30 32 33 34 34 Tobias Bolch Department of Geography University of Zurich - Irchel Winterthurerstr. 190 CH-8057, Zurich Switzerland Email: [email protected] Buri Pascal Institut f. Umweltingenieurwiss HIL D 23.3 Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5 8093 Zuerich Switzerland Tel: +41 44 633 77 20 Email: [email protected] Arthur Lutz Future Water Netherlands Email: [email protected] Nathan Forsythe Newcastle University Cassie Building Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK Tel: +44 (0)191 208 6323 Email: [email protected] Hayley J Fowler School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University Room 3.08 Cassie Building Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK Tel: 44 (0) 191 208 7113 Email: [email protected] 35 David Pritchard School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU UK Tel: 44 (0) 191 208 7113 Email: [email protected] World Bank 36 Christina Leb Senior Water Resources Specialist World Bank Washington DC USA Email: [email protected] 37 Irene Rehberger Bescos Water Resources Manangement World Bank Email: [email protected] 38 Muthukumar Mani Senior Environmental Economist Sustainable Development Department World Bank Washington DC USA Email: [email protected] 39 Gowhar Meraj Consultant, World Bank J&K, India Email: [email protected] IWMI 35 40 41 42 Alan Nicol Theme Leader- Governance , Gender and Poverty IWMI Headquarters 127 Sunil Mawatha, Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte Sri Lanka Tel:+94 11 2 784080 Email: [email protected] Arif Anwar Head of Office International Water Management Institute (IWMI) 12KM Multan Road, Chowk Thokar Niaz Baig Lahore 53700, Pakistan Tel: +92 42 35299504-6 Email: [email protected] Ram Bastakoti International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Kathmandu, Nepal Email: [email protected] 43 Srabani Roy Director, Asia International Water Management Institute (IWMI) 127, Sunil Mawatha, Pelawatte, Battaramulla P.O. Box 2075, Colombo Sri Lanka Telephone: +94-11 2880000, 2784080 Email: [email protected] 44 Nitasha Nair International Water Management Institute (IWMI) New Delhi, India Email: [email protected] CSIRO 36 45 Mobin Ahmad Irrigation Hydrologist Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Dickson ACT 2602 Australia Email: [email protected] 46 Geoff Podger Senior River Modeller Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Dickson ACT 2602 Australia Email: [email protected] Development Partners 47 48 49 50 37 Semund Haukland Senior Adviser, Water Resources Norad – Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation P.O.Box 8034 Dep, 0030 Oslo Norway Mobile: +47-9413 4931, Office direct: +47-23980554 E-mail: [email protected] Undala Alam Regional Water Resources and Climate Adviser & Manager, South Asia Water Governance Programme | Asia Regional Team | DFID | British High Commission, Diplomatic Enclave, Ramna 5, Islamabad, Pakistan |[email protected]| VMR 402032182 and 2422# | Mobiles: when in Pakistan +92 3000 450217, in India +91 88 2672 8553, and elsewhere +44 7918 223833 Kate Hayes Governance Advisor, Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP) Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Government of Australia Australia Ph: +61 2 6243 5174; +61 401 928 462 (M) Email: [email protected] Brian Dawson Advisor, Climate Change and Energy Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 51 R.G. Casey Building John McEwen Crescent Barton ACT 0221 Australia Email: [email protected] John Dore Senior Water Resources Sector Specialist Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Bangkok Thailand Email: [email protected] Media 52 Peer Muhammad Reporter The Express Tribune Islamabad, Pakistan Email: [email protected] 53 Jane Qiu Science Writer 9-1808 Jiulong Huayuan 29 Guangqu Lu, Chaoyang District Beijing, China Email: [email protected] 54 Shahani Singh Freelance journalist SciDev.Net 147/65 kha Chaksibarimarg Kathmandu – 16, Nepal Email: [email protected] Cell: 9808077774 Athar Parvaiz Freelance Journalist Press Enclave Opposite Pratap Park Srinagar, India Mobile: 91-9419071620 Email: [email protected] 55 ICIMOD 38 56 Eklabya Sharma Director Programme Operations Directorate, ICIMOD [email protected] 57 Farid Ahmad Head of Strategic Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation ICIMOD [email protected] 58 Arun Bhakta Shrestha Regional Programme Manager River Basins and Cryosphere and Atmosphere, ICIMOD [email protected] 59 Philippus Wester Chief Scientist, Water Resources Management Water and Air , ICIMOD [email protected] 60 Pradeep Mool Programme Coordinator - Cryosphere Initiative Cryosphere and Atmosphere, ICIMOD [email protected] 61 Joseph Michael Shea Glacier Hydrologist Water and Air, ICIMOD [email protected] 39 62 Abdul Wahid Jasra Country Representative - Pakistan Country Offices, ICIMOD [email protected] 63 Golam Rasul Theme Leader Livelihoods, ICIMOD [email protected] 64 Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya Remote Sensing Specialist Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD [email protected] 65 Madhav Prasad Dhakal Hydrological Analyst Water and Air , ICIMOD [email protected] 66 Sagar Ratna Bajracharya Hydrometeorological Analyst Water and Air, ICIMOD [email protected] 67 Sudan Bikash Maharjan Research Associate, Remote Sensing and GIS Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD [email protected] 68 Sharad Prasad Joshi Glacier Analyst Water and Air, ICIMOD [email protected] 40 69 Santosh Nepal Associate Coordinator - Koshi Basin Initiative Water and Air, ICIMOD [email protected] 70 Maxime Litt Glacio-Hydrologist Water and Air, ICIMOD [email protected] 71 Abid Hussain Food Security Economist Livelihoods, ICIMOD [email protected] 72 Faisal Mueen Qamar Remote Sensing Specialist Geospatial Solutions, ICIMOD [email protected] 73 Muhammad Mudassar Maqsood Associate coordinator (SSA) River Basin Management , ICIMOD [email protected] 74 Liza Manandhar Programme Associate River Basin Management, ICIMOD [email protected] 75 Smita Ghimire SSA River Basin Management, ICIMOD [email protected] 41 Annex 3: Conference Agenda DAY/DATE CONTENT SPEAKERS Day 1: 16 February – Pre-conference Workshop – Mapping complex decision making in critical geographies: Identifying approaches and establishing partnerships in the Upper Indus Basin (Agenda attached separately) Day 2: 17 February – International Conference – Climate and Environment Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Waters 08:45 – 09:15 Registration 09:15 – 10:15 Opening Session 09:15 – 09:25 09:35 – 09:45 Welcome remarks from ICIMOD Welcome remarks from World Bank 09:45 – 09:55 Welcome remarks from IWMI Remarks by representatives of o Afghanistan o China o India 09:55 – 10:10 Inaugural remarks by the Chief Guest 10:10 – 10:15 Workshop background and objectives and expected outputs 10:15 – 10:45 Group Photographs & tea/coffee 10:45 – 11:45 Session 1: Keynote & Background papers on different topics David Molden, ICIMOD Christina Leb, World Bank Alan Nicol, IWMI Fazul Haq Bakhtari, WAPECA o Sun Yuan, NCC/CMA o Anil Kulkarni, Divecha Centre for Climate Change Hafeez-ur-Rehman, Honourable Chief Minister, Gilgit Baltistan o Arun Shrestha, ICIMOD Chair: Eklabya Sharma Rapporteur: Faisal Mueen Qamer 10:45 – 11:00 11:00 – 11:15 11:15 – 11:30 Climate and climate change in Indus Basin: how can research help? Recent progress in the understanding of changes in climate, glaciers and water resources of the Upper Indus Socio-Economic challenges facing the Indus Basin Danial Hashmi Walter Immerzeel, FutureWater Alan Nicol, IWMI Discussion 11:30 – 11:45 11:45 – 12:45 42 Session 2: Ongoing programmes and projects: Information sharing and feedback session Chair: Jiang Tong Rapporteur: Madhav Dhakal Presentation on ongoing programme 11:45 – 12:00 12:00 – 12:15 Glacier observation in Hunza River since 2010 Field campaigns and longterm monitoring in the UIB characteristics, problems, recommendations UIB Network 12:15 – 12:30 Indus Forum Shangguan Donghui, CAREERI Matthias Winiger, University of Bonn Khalid Mohtadullah, UIB Network Nisar Memon, Water and Environment Forum 12:30 – 12:45 12:45 – 13:45 Lunch 13:45 – 14:30 Session 3: Continuation of Session 2 13:45 – 14:00 Overview of DFAT-CSIRO Indus SDIP research and Geoffrey Podger, CSIRO Alan Nicol, IWMI capacity building activities in Pakistan 14:00 – 14:15 IWMI Discussion 14:15 – 14:30 14:30 – 15:45 Session 4: Climate Change and variability in the Indus Basin Chair: Khalid Mohtadullah Rapporteur: Sagar Bajracharya Climate trends and variability in Indus basin changes in the monsoon and westerly, moisture and thermal regime extreme events, etc 14:30 – 14:45 14:45 – 15:00 15:00 – 15:15 15:15 – 15:30 Results of PMD research Sub-regional process changes in the Western Himalayas Climate variability in the Upper Indus Basin: trying to explain the Karakoram Anomaly Projected climate change over Indus River Basin using CORDEX-SA models 15:30 – 15:45 Discussion 15:45 -16:05 Tea/Coffee break 43 Azmat Hayat Khan, PMD A. P. Dimri , JNU Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University Ashwini Kulkarni, IITM 16:05 -17:20 Session 5: Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikash Maharjan Cryosphere dynamics, Karakorum anomaly, glacial hazards, debris covered glacier, etc 16:05 – 16:20 16:20 – 16:35 16:35 – 16:50 16:50 – 17:05 Modelling future of the Cryosphere in Indus Basin A Karakoram Anomaly update Geodetic mass balance of Upper Indus Basin Debris covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia: their dynamics: surface processes, contribution to mass balance: Anil Kulkarni, DCCC Joseph Shea, ICIMOD Tobias Bolch, Univ. of Zurich Pascal Buri, Institut f. Umweltingenieurwiss what we know and what we do not. 17:05 – 17:20 Discussion 18:00 – Conference Dinner Day 3: 18 February 09:00 – 09:40 Session 5: (Continued) – Cryosphere Dynamics in the Indus Basin Chair: Danial Hashmi Rapporteur: Sudan Bikas Maharjan 09:00 – 09:15 09:15 – 09:30 09:30 – 09:40 Impact of changing climate on glaciohydrology in Baspa Basin Snow cover variability over Jhelum Basin, and its influence on livelihood of local communities Rajesh Kumar, Sharda University Shresth Tayal, TERI Discussion 09:40 – 10:35 Session 6: Country report on climate, hydrology and cryosphere data collection and sharing: ongoing and new initiatives Chair: Philippus Wester Rapporteur: Sharad Joshi 9:40 – 9:50 9:50 -10:00 10:00 - 10:10 10:10 – 10:20 Afghanistan China India Glacier monitoring: WAPDA 's initiative in the Upper Indus Basin 10:20 – 10:35 Discussion 10:35 -11:05 Tea/Coffee break 11:05 -12:20 Session 7: Hydrological regime water availability and demand 44 Md. Wasim Iqbal, MEW Songuan Dongqui, CAREERI Renoj Thayyen, India Danial Hashmi for Asim Rauf Khan, WAPDA Chair: Nisar Memon Rapporteur: Santosh Nepal 11:05 – 11:20 11:50 – 12:20 Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology: sources, shifts and extremes Hydrology of cold-arid system catchment, Ladakh Range, India Projected changes on climate ,runoff and flood/drought in the Indus River Discussion 12:20 – 13:30 Lunch 13:30 – 14:30 Session 8: Climate induced hazards and risk 11:20 – 11:35 11:35 – 11:50 Arthur Lutz, FutureWater Renoj Thayyen, NIH Jiang Tong, NCC ,CMA Chair: Shakil Ahmad Ramshoo Rapporteur: Maxime Litt Assessment of climate induced hazards and risk in Indus and mitigation measures, risk mapping, early warning systems, community based approaches, satellite based approach etc. 13:30 – 13:45 13:45 – 14:00 14:00 – 14:15 14:15 – 14:30 Discussion 14:30 -15:30 Session 9: Adaptation strategies at local and basin level Managing risks in the Upper Indus Basin: CommunityCentric Disaster Risk Reduction Approach Climate related hazards in the Upper Indus Basin GLOF Hazard in the Upper Indus Basin Nusrat Nasab, Focus Humanitarian Assistance Babar Khan, WWF Samjwal Bajracharya, ICIMOD Chair: Mohammad Wasim Iqbal Rapporteur: Abid Hussain Issues and options on domestic and agricultural water management in Indus Basin (country presentation), irrigation and hydropower, good practices and examples of water management options in arid and semiarid parts of Indus Basin 14:30 – 14:45 14:45 – 15:00 15:00 – 15:15 15:15 – 15:30 45 Water, Energy and Food Nexus in Pakistan: Implication for adaptation Water and agriculture in the Lower Indus Merging community-generated observations with large-scale data sources for increased resilience of Himalayan communities Discussion Golam Rasul, ICIMOD Anwar Arif, IWMI Nathan Forsythe, Newcastle University 15:30 – 15:50 Tea/Coffee break 15:50 – 16:50 Closing session of the conference 15:50 – 16:35 16:35 – 16:50 Summary and Way Forward Concluding Remarks Philippus Wester, ICIMOD (facilitation) Eklabya Sharma, ICIMOD Day 4: February 19 – Post-conference event: Upper Indus Basin Network and Indus Forum workshop 09:30 – 11:00 Update on Indus Basin Initiatives 11:00 – 12:30 UIB Network Indus Forum – Assessing Climate Change Impacts & Glacier Knowledge Mapping IWMI informing change in the Indus Basin Program Khalid Mohtadullah, UIB Network Shakil Romshoo, Univ. of Kashmir Alan Nicol, IWMI Breakout Group Discussion (Coffee/Tea included) Identifying knowledge gaps and research needs in water resources assessment and integrated management – are proposed research projects closing those gaps? Suggestions for enhancing collaboration and exchange of information amongst research projects and initiatives across all basin countries Strengthening linkage between research and policy for improved decision making in trans-boundary water resources management Christina Leb; Arun Shrestha; Philippus Wester (facilitation) Reporting Back to the Plenary 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Group discussion on Next Steps 15:00 – 16:00 46 Coordination and Collaboration among UIB Network and Indus Forum Next steps in developing the Forum Closing Session Alan Nicol (facilitation)