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GCOS REGIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA
September 2005
FOREWORD
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 as a joint
initiative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United
Nations Economic, Social and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and International
Council for Science (ICSU). Its objectives are to provide the data necessary for climate
system monitoring, climate change detection and response monitoring, application to the
development of national economies, and research. GCOS addresses the total climate
system, including physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic,
hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes. GCOS, however, does not itself make
observations or generate data products but works in partnership with the Global
Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System
(GOOS), as well as with the WMO World Weather Watch and Global Atmosphere Watch
programmes. It also complements and contributes to related initiatives such as the
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) of the Group on Earth
Observations (GEO), in which GCOS is a Participating Organization, the Integrated
Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) and the European Global Monitoring for Environment
and Security (GMES) programme. When fully implemented, GCOS will enable nations
to improve climate prediction services, mitigate climate disasters and plan for
sustainable development by providing access to high quality global data sets.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) represents
the international community’s political response to the need to stabilize greenhouse
gases at levels that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. A key commitment in the Convention is Article 4 1(g) under which all Parties
agree to:
"Promote and cooperate in … systematic observation and development of data
archives related to the climate system."
The Conference of the Parties (COP), the supreme body of the Convention, has
sponsored two reviews1 of the adequacy of the global observing systems for climate in
pursuit of this commitment. These reviews stressed the requirement to provide global
observational coverage for key climate variables, highlighting an urgent need to reverse
the degradation of observing networks, particularly in developing nations. Reacting to
these assessments, the COP invited GCOS to initiate a Regional Workshop Programme
to identify and assess deficiencies in the climate monitoring capabilities of developing
regions of the globe and to propose specific actions to remedy critical shortcomings.
While the primary focus is on the designated GCOS networks, it is recognized that
improving regional GCOS capacities will also enhance nations' capabilities to address
domestic requirements.
The seventh GCOS workshop involving countries in South and Southwest Asia was held
in New Delhi, India from 11 to 13 October 20042. It was jointly sponsored by GCOS, the
1
Report on the Adequacy of the Global Climate Observing Systems, GCOS-48, October 1998.
The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of
the UNFCCC, GCOS-82, April 2003.
2
Participating countries were Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Maldives, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, and
2
Global Environment Facility (GEF), and the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP). Workshop participants assessed climate observing networks and data
management systems in South and Southwest Asia and agreed on critical issues and
priorities that should be addressed in a regional GCOS Action Plan. A follow-up meeting
to prepare a draft Action Plan was subsequently held at Isfahan in the Islamic Republic
of Iran, during the period 9–11 May 2005. The draft Plan was then circulated widely
across the region for review. In consequence, the Regional GCOS Action Plan
presented here represents a broad consensus on regional priorities in South and
Southwest Asia and on actions needed to address them.
Yemen. Previous workshops were held in Samoa (April 2000), Kenya (October 2001), Costa
Rica (March 2002), Singapore (September 2002), Niger (March 2003) and Chile (October 2003).
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The vision underlying the GCOS programme is that all nations and governments will
have readily available to them the climate data and related information that they need to
manage the impacts of climate. However, the problem is that systematic climate
observation programmes in South and Southwest Asia are, at present, inadequate to
permit reliable assessment, quantification and prediction of climatic conditions and their
impacts. Immediate action must be taken to address critical deficiencies in these
programmes, since managing the impacts of climate is a critical factor in the pursuit of
sustainable development, poverty reduction, and the protection of human health in South
and Southwest Asia.
The overall objective of this Regional GCOS Action Plan is to remedy significant
deficiencies in systematic climate observation programmes in South and Southwest Asia
in order to ensure that the data and information produced by them meet the needs of
decision makers. In pursuing this objective, the Action Plan:
− Identifies GCOS and related regional requirements for systematic observations
of the climate system in South and Southwest Asia;
− Assesses the current status of the region's observational networks and
programmes and associated data systems against these requirements; and
− Proposes specific projects and makes recommendations to rectify identified
gaps and deficiencies in these observational networks and programmes.
In particular, it proposes nine high-priority projects, as follows:
Project 1: Enabling Improved Regional Assessments of Climate Change by
Strengthening GCOS Global Surface Network (GSN) and Global Upper Air Network
(GUAN) Monitoring Activities
Project 2: Establishing Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Aerosol Monitoring within the
Region
Project 3: An Indian Ocean Observing System for Climate: The CLIVAR/GOOS Indian
Ocean Panel Report on Plans for Sustained Observations for Climate
Project 4: Enhancing the Availability and Use of Hydrological Data in South and
Southwest Asia
Project 5: Monitoring Glaciers for Water Resources in South and Southwest Asia
Project 6: Fluxnet for South and Southwest Asia (for systematic monitoring of fluxes of
carbon dioxide and other gases between the surface of the Earth and the atmosphere)
Project 7: Needed Improvements in Database Management and Data Rescue for
Climate Assessment
Project 8: Building Regional Capacity for Satellite Applications for Climate and National
Development
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Project 9: Enhancement of Regional Climate Modeling Capacity in South and Southwest
Asia
The recommendations in the Action Plan stress the importance of enhancing
coordination and improving data management, data exchange, and data availability
within the region. They also encourage the submission of National Reports on
systematic climate observation programmes, as requested by the Conference of the
Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). Finally, they highlight the urgent need for former colonial powers to transfer
historical climate datasets to the relevant authorities in the countries where these data
were collected.
The Regional GCOS Action Plan for South and Southwest Asia identifies the need for
additional resources to implement projects and to sustain systematic climate observation
programmes across the region. Consequently, it concludes by proposing a two-pronged
resource mobilization strategy that involves seeking external donor funding for project
implementation while targeting national governments to sustain observation
programmes.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Foreword
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4
1. INTRODUCTION
9
1.1 The Problem
9
1.2 The Overall Objective and Specific Goals
9
1.3 Underlying Considerations
9
1.4 Action Plan Structure
10
2. GENERAL BACKGROUND
10
2.1 Vulnerability to Climate and its Extremes
3. CURRENT STATUS OF SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION PROGRAMMES
12
12
3.1 The Atmosphere
13
3.1.1 The GSN
13
3.1.2 The GUAN
13
3.1.3 The Global Atmosphere Watch
14
3.1.4 The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN)
15
3.1.5 Other Issues
16
3.1.6 Overall Assessment for the Atmosphere
16
3.2 The Oceans
3.2.1 Ocean Observing Networks – Present Status
16
17
3.2.1.1 GLOSS
18
3.2.1.2 Other Oceanographic Programmes
19
3.2.2 Overall Assessment for the Oceans
3.3 The Terrestrial System
3.3.1 Terrestrial Observation Networks - Present Status
20
20
21
3.3.1.1 Hydrology
21
3.3.1.2 Glaciers
22
3.3.1.3 FLUXNET
22
3.3.2 Overall Assessment for the Terrestrial Component
3.4 Remote Sensing
3.4.1 Overall Assessment for Remote Sensing
3.5 Regional Coordination and Organization
3.5.1 Overall Assessment
23
23
24
24
24
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4. SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO ADDRESS ISSUES AND REQUIREMENTS
25
4.1 Action Plan Projects
25
4.1.1 The Atmosphere
25
4.1.2 The Oceans
26
4.1.3 Terrestrial Systems
26
4.1.4 Data
26
4.1.5 Capacity Building
26
4.2 Action Plan Recommendations
27
4.3 Action Plan Outputs
28
4.4 Anticipated Impacts, Benefits and Beneficiaries
29
5. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
30
6. CONCLUDING REMARKS
31
SELECTED REFERENCES
32
LIST OF ACRONYMS
33
APPENDICES P-1 to P-9
PROJECTS
36
P-1 Enabling Improved Regional Assessments of Climate Change
by Strengthening GCOS Surface Network (GSN) and GCOS
Upper Air Network (GUAN) Monitoring Activities
37
P- 2 Strengthening the GAW network in South and Southwest Asia
43
P- 3 Establishing an Indian Ocean Observing System for Climate -CLIVAR/
GOOS Indian Ocean Panel Report on Plans for Sustained
Observations for Climate
47
P- 4 Enhancing the Availability and Use of Hydrological Data
54
P- 5 Monitoring Glaciers for Water Resources in South
and Southwest Asia
62
P- 6 FLUXNET – South and Southwest Asia
71
P- 7 Needed Improvements in Database Management and Data Rescue
for Climate Assessment
75
P- 8 Building regional capacity for Satellite Applications to Climate
and national development
[to be revised]
82
P-9 Enhancement of Regional Climate Modeling Capacity
in South and Southwest Asia
85
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APPENDICES B-1 to B-5
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
89
APPENDIX B-1
GCOS Monitoring Principles
91
APPENDIX B-2
GSN Stations in South and Southwest Asia
93
APPENDIX B-3
GUAN Stations in South and Southwest Asia
95
APPENDIX B-4
BSRN Stations in South and Southwest Asia
95
APPENDIX B-5
GLOSS Core Network (GCN) Stations in
South and Southwest Asia
96
APPENDIX B-6
Terms of Reference for the Principal Coordinator
97
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INTRODUCTION
The vision underlying the GCOS programme is that all nations and governments will
have readily available to them the climate data and related information that they need to
manage the impacts of climatic variations, climatic extremes and climate change.
1.1 The Problem
The problem is that systematic climate observation programmes in South and Southwest
Asia are, at present, inadequate to permit reliable assessment, quantification and
prediction of climatic conditions and their impacts.
1.2 The Overall Objective and Specific Goals
The overall objective of this Regional GCOS Action Plan is, therefore, to remedy critical
deficiencies in systematic climate observation programmes in South and Southwest Asia
in order to ensure that the data and information produced by them meet the needs of
decision-makers. An urgent need exists to address such deficiencies since managing
the impacts of present and future climates are fundamental to sustainable development,
poverty reduction, natural disaster mitigation and the protection of human health.
The specific goals of the Regional Action Plan are to:
-
Identify GCOS and related domestic requirements for systematic observations
of the climate system in South and Southwest Asia;
-
Assess the current status of climate observation programmes in the region
against these requirements;
-
Outline specific projects and recommendations to rectify identified gaps and
deficiencies in these observation programmes, including their associated data
management, data exchange, archiving, and other components; and
-
Enhance the coordination of these programmes, including related scientific
activities, in order to ensure their long-term effectiveness and efficiency.
1.3 Some Underlying Considerations
A primary focus of this Regional Action Plan is to address the highest priority GCOS
needs from the perspective of South and Southwest Asia as a whole. Several
compelling reasons exist for adopting such a regional approach. Firstly, the global nature
of climate necessitates ongoing cooperation among all nations to freely exchange and
share climate data. Secondly, climate system mechanisms manifest themselves
uniquely in different regions, necessitating specific regional study. In addition, budgetary
restrictions or lack of trained personnel make it impossible for some countries to
undertake a full suite of climate-related activities. A regional approach, involving some
coordination and sharing, is, therefore, desirable to avoid duplication, reduce costs, and
ensure that high quality climate data and products are available to domestic users and
the regional and global community. Furthermore, potential external donors may be more
inclined to fund elements of a well-thought-out regional plan to improve climate
observations, infrastructure and information services than to fund proposals from
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individual countries. Finally, strengthening region-wide capacity will significantly assist all
South and Southwest Asian countries to meet their internal social, economic, and
environmental needs and, at the same time, contribute to addressing the regional and
global challenges presented by climate change, climate variability, and climatic
extremes.
A Regional GCOS Action Plan must reflect the priority concerns of important
stakeholders and users of climate data if is to engage broadly based commitment. The
region’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are key
stakeholders. Consequently, it is critically important that deficiencies in the GSN,
GUAN, BSRN and GAW stations and programmes operated by the NMHSs are
addressed in the Plan. Equally, the priority needs of those responsible for relevant
oceanic and terrestrial observing activities must be and are captured in the Plan. The
requirements of significant users of climate data and derived products must also be
reflected. These include the requirements of national Climate Change Coordinators in
addition to a wide range of public and private stakeholders. Consequently, the Action
Plan also addresses data management, data exchange, data rescue, quality assurance,
archiving and the facilitation of access to observational data and related products.
1.4 Action Plan Structure
The structure of this Regional GCOS Action Plan is as follows. It begins with a
condensed review of climate observation programmes in South and Southwest Asia,
drawing attention to areas where deficiencies exist. It then outlines projects and
recommendations aimed at ensuring that these programmes meet GCOS standards and
related requirements. It identifies the outputs and benefits that will result from the
projects. It concludes with a proposed strategy directed at mobilizing the resources
needed to implement the projects and sustaining the region’s systematic climate
observation programmes over the long term.
2. GENERAL BACKGROUND
South and Southwest Asia encompasses a vast, topographically varied, area reaching
from the island state of the Maldives on the Equator to near latitude 40oN in northern Iran
and extending over more than 60 degrees of longitude from the western extremity of
Saudi Arabia to the India-Myanmar border. It includes a large expanse of the Indian
Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea. Its landmass is, moreover, penetrated
by the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, while the Caspian
Sea washes its northern extremity on the Iranian coast. Mountain ranges, including the
world's highest peaks, are dominant landforms, along with a related complex of plateaus,
snowfields, glaciers, river basins, and alluvial lowlands. Agriculturally important lowlands
are mainly in the alluvial valleys and deltas, developed by rivers flowing to the south and
east. Desert conditions prevail in parts of the region, most notably in the Arabian
Peninsula, and there are also substantial areas of grassland and forest in areas of
higher precipitation. Although challenging, such diversity must be captured in the design
of the climate observing system.
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Figure 1. Map of South and Southwest Asia
The climate of South and Southwest Asia is strongly influenced by the immensity of the
Asian landmass, the barrier presented by its great highland core, and the monsoon wind
system. In summer, continental Asia heats up rapidly and strong, moisture-laden winds
are drawn inland from the oceans. These bring heavy monsoon rainfalls to India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh and adjacent countries. In winter, the Asian continental land
surface cools off more rapidly than the surrounding oceans, generating high-pressure
over land. Consequently, cold, dry, continental winds blow offshore from the Asian
heartland during the period from October to about April.
Tropical cyclones occasionally develop over the Indian Ocean, most commonly during
the spring, and move northward across the Arabian Sea, bringing heavy precipitation,
high seas and destructive winds. Tropical cyclones occur rather more frequently in the
Bay of Bengal, mainly during the autumn. All too often, they bring severe weather, storm
surges and disastrous floods to vulnerable coastal regions of India and Bangladesh.
In contrast to the monsoon-dominated climatic regimes of its southern areas, a variety of
dry climates is experienced in the western and northern half of the region. These range
from the tropical desert climates of the Arabian Peninsula, with annual average rainfalls
below 5 cm, to subtropical steppe climates in Iran and Afghanistan. In these latter
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areas, annual precipitation averages around 25cm, though substantially greater amounts
occur at higher elevations in the Zagros and Elburz Mountains and in the Hindu Kush,
often falling as snow. Relatively few travelling depressions affect these drier regions
during the summer months. However, some of the more intense Mediterranean low
pressure systems move southeastward to India during winter and provide the main
source of precipitation for areas of Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan.
2.1 Vulnerability to Climate and its Extremes
South and Southwest Asia includes not only some of the world's richest countries and
fastest growing economies but also severely underdeveloped nations that are struggling
to improve the social and economic conditions of their people. Vulnerability to climate
and its extremes is generally high throughout the region. Many national economies are
heavily reliant on activities and industries that are subject to disruption by climatic
anomalies and extremes. Severe climatic events, such as heavy rains and floods,
present major challenges for people and their governments3 in many parts of the region.
Areas affected range across agriculture, the supply of potable water, power generation,
human settlement, transportation, communications and other infrastructure. The
negative economic repercussions of climatic events include declines in production,
decreased exports, and increased imports. Across the region, public health is also
significantly affected by climate. In 1988, for example, heat waves in India were
associated with many deaths while, conversely, unusually cold weather killed hundreds
of people in Bangladesh and northern India in 1992-93. Moreover, climate plays an
important role in the occurrence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and
schistosomiasis.
The specter of global warming is a particular concern for South and Southwest Asia.
Rising sea levels pose an immediate threat to people and infrastructure in low-lying
coastal regions of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan and in island nations such as the
Maldives. In addition, many glaciers in the Hindu Kush region, in Nepal and in Iran are
retreating, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst flood events. Climate change may
also generate negative impacts on human health, increasing heat-related deaths and
expanding the areas affected by vector-borne diseases. Reacting to these concerns, the
nations of the region have adopted a proactive approach aimed at minimizing the
adverse impacts of climate and taking advantage of any associated opportunities. This
strategy is generating increased requirements for climate data, products, and services4.
3.
CURRENT STATUS OF SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION PROGRAMMES
The following sections contain an assessment of current atmospheric, oceanic and
terrestrial observation programmes in South and Southwest Asia and their associated
data, infrastructure and coordination requirements.
3
The region has suffered a number of major climate-induced disasters in recent years, such as
the catastrophic monsoon floods in Bangladesh 1987, 1988 and 2004 and the disaster caused by
floods and debris flows in south-central Nepal in July 1993.
4
A recent Strategic Plan for National Meteorological Services in Asia identified requirements for
weather and climate observations to address major development challenges, including the
mitigation of natural and environmental disasters, climate change, climate variability, water
management, poverty alleviation and conservation of biodiversity.
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3.1 The Atmosphere
The GCOS Surface Network (GSN), the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN), the Global
Atmosphere Watch (GAW), and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) are the
primary GCOS atmospheric observation networks. The GSN and GUAN networks are
comprised of stations that provide good geographic coverage of the globe and have long
histories and historical databases. They are considered the minimum required for
characterizing global climate. These GCOS networks represent a stable and, it is
hoped, sustainable underpinning for national observational networks that operate on
finer temporal and spatial scales. Several WMO Commissions have stressed the vital
importance of these GCOS networks in calibrating and reconciling observations from
satellites and aircraft remote sensing systems. Consequently, it is vitally important that
stations in these networks operate continuously, produce high quality observations, and
deliver these data and associated metadata in a timely fashion to the designated GCOS
data processing and archiving centers5.
3.1.1 The GSN
In January 2005, the GCOS Surface Network comprised 998 stations distributed over
the land areas of the globe. Fifty-two of these GSN stations are located in South and
Southwest Asia and these are listed in Appendix B-2. The Japan Meteorological Agency
(JMA) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) have been assigned the responsibility for
monitoring the transmission of GSN station CLIMAT messages on the Global
Telecommunications System (GTS) for data availability, timeliness and quality. The US
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) acts as the global archive for GSN data and their
associated metadata.
GCOS Surface Network Monitoring Centre (GSNMC) statistics, provided by the
Deutscher Wetterdienst, indicate that no CLIMAT reports were received from seven
GSN stations6 in South and Southwest Asia during the period from June 2004 to May
2005. During the same period, monthly CLIMAT reports from most other GSN stations in
the region did not reach the Monitoring Centre on one or more occasions and many of
those CLIMAT messages that were received contained erroneous data. It must also be
pointed out that the World Data Center (US NCDC) has not received historical data and
metadata for all designated GSN stations in South and Southwest Asia. It is evident,
therefore, that further action is needed to ensure reliable and timely GTS relay of
accurate CLIMAT messages from all GSN stations in the region and that historical GSN
data and metadata are supplied to the US NCDC. Equally, efforts must continue to
ensure that surface observations from these GSN stations form part of the daily
(synoptic) information transmitted in real time to international collection centers.
3.1.2 The GUAN
As of January 2005, the Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) consisted of 161 selected
upper air stations, providing reasonably uniform global radiosonde coverage over land.
Four GUAN stations are located in South and Southwest Asia, at Mashad (Islamic
Republic of Iran), Gan (Maldives), Abha (Saudi Arabia) and Abu Dhabi (United Arab
Emirates) (see Appendix B-3). The United Kingdom Meteorological Office’s (UKMO)
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6
The GCOS climate monitoring principles are detailed in Appendix I.
Located in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Maldives and India.
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Hadley Centre and the US National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) have been assigned
joint responsibility for GUAN performance monitoring while the European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) undertakes operational quality control of
real-time observations from GUAN stations. GUAN data and metadata are archived at
the National Climatic Data Centre in the United States (World Data Center A).
As illustrated in Figure 2, the most recent monitoring statistics from the Hadley Centre
indicate that, during the 12-month period ending April 2005, CLIMAT TEMP reports from
the GUAN stations at Abha and Abu Dhabi were received more than 90% of the time.
However, the monitoring data also demonstrate that, during the same period, more than
half of the reports from the GUAN stations at Mashad and Gan did not reach the Hadley
Centre . Clearly, efforts must continue to improve the reliability and timeliness of relay of
CLIMAT TEMP reports from these latter two GUAN stations.
Figure 2. Percentage of reports from GUAN stations received during the 12-month
period ending April 2005.
3.1.3 The Global Atmosphere Watch
Established in 1989, the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) monitors the changing
chemical composition of the atmosphere, including greenhouse gases and other
variables such as aerosols, precipitation chemistry, solar and ultraviolet radiation, and
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surface and stratospheric ozone. GAW differs from the other components of GCOS in
that its observations of atmospheric chemistry parameters are primarily used in
predictive climate models, though they also provide ground truth for satellite
measurements.
An additional objective of GAW is to coordinate regional air quality measurements
around the globe. The GAW Urban Meteorology and Environment Program (GURME)
has been established to assist meteorological services in developing countries with
urban air quality forecasting. The aerosol component of the GAW program is of
particular regional interest in South and Southwest Asia in the context of potential
relationships to regional and local air quality and atmospheric circulation. Dimming of
solar radiation due to the influence of atmospheric aerosols has, for example, been
observed in India, particularly in winter, and concern exists regarding the possible impact
of aerosols on the monsoon circulation.
Figure 3. The GAW global observing network
As illustrated in Figure 3, none of the 22 GAW global observatories are located in South
and Southwest Asia. However, this global network is supplemented by over 300
Regional GAW Stations and by additional contributing and associate stations, a number
of which are located in the region. These supporting stations contribute important
observations of greenhouse gases, ozone, solar and ultra violet radiation, and other
parameters. For example, a station at Kaashidhoo in the Maldives contributes
observations to the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) database. In
addition, stations in several countries supply radiation observations to the World
Radiation Data Centre (WRDC). Furthermore, India, Iran, the Maldives, Pakistan and
the United Arab Emirates operate stations that contribute data to the World Ozone and
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Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) while Indian stations provide precipitation
chemistry data to the World Data Centre for Precipitation Chemistry (WDCPC).
3.1.4 The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN)
The WCRP/GEWEX Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) is now recognized as
the GCOS global surface radiation network.
The BSRN is at aimed at detecting
important changes in the earth's radiation field that may cause climate changes. Solar
and atmospheric radiation is measured with instruments of the highest available
accuracy and at a very high frequency (minutes) at a small number of BSRN stations in
contrasting climatic zones. These stations cover a latitude range from 80°N to 90°S.
BSRN radiation measurements are used to validate the radiation schemes in climate
models and to calibrate satellite algorithms. BSRN radiation data along with co-located
surface and upper air observations and station metadata are stored in an integrated
database at the World Radiation Monitoring Center (WRMC). Two stations in South and
Southwest Asia have been identified as part of this new GCOS network, one in Saudi
Arabia and one in the Maldives (see Appendix B-4).
3.1.5 Other Issues
The Regional Basic Climatological Network (RBCN) and national observation networks
in South and Southwest Asia are considerably more extensive than the GSN and GUAN
networks. Data from these denser networks support model downscaling and re-analysis
activities, provide data time series for monitoring and assessment of climatic behavior
and are vital for many domestic applications. However, some national networks display
deficiencies such as obsolescent equipment (e.g., radiosonde systems), unreliable
telecommunications, inadequate data processing, archiving and data exchange systems
and poor coordination. Moreover, some irreplaceable observational records from the
countries of the region are stored in perishable or obsolescent formats (i.e., on paper or
on obsolete digital storage media) or held in the archives of former colonial powers. This
places at risk irreplaceable historical data that could enhance understanding of climatic
variability in the region, facilitate the detection of climate change and underpin the
development of statistical forecast techniques. As a further issue, regional capacity to
assess and predict climatic variations and climate change, through the application of
regional models, must be enhanced in order to facilitate investigation of climate impacts
and the development of management strategies.
3.1.6 Overall Assessment for the Atmosphere
Timely exchange of quality-controlled CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages is a
fundamental requirement for GSN and GUAN stations, respectively. The monitoring
statistics cited earlier, however, indicate that this requirement is not being fully met at a
significant number of stations in the region. Equally, historical data and metadata for all
stations have not been provided to the global archiving center (US NCDC).
Consequently, the main issues relating to regional GSN and GUAN operations are to
improve the performance of the less reliable stations, ensure timely relay of accurate
CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP messages on the GTS, and supply historical data and
regularly updated metadata to the global archives. Where GAW-related observations
are concerned, a need has been identified for significant expansion of the GAW
networks in the region including increased emphasis on ensuring the quality, intercomparability, and continuity of these complex measurement programmes. Where the
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two BSRN stations in the region are concerned, stress must continue to be laid on
ensuring reliable station operation, the acquisition of high quality observations, and the
timely submission of these data and related metadata to the global archive. Significant
issues relating to regional and national networks include needs for modernization of
some nations' observing, telecommunications, data management, and data exchange
and access systems, for systematic calibration of instruments and for selective network
expansion in areas of sparse data coverage. There is an overriding requirement to
ensure the provision of adequate resources to sustain the long-term operation of
observation station networks in all countries in the region. Data rescue must also be
pursued in order to provide long-duration historical time series of observations needed
for detection and assessment of climate variations and trends. Finally, improvement is
needed in regional capabilities to assess climate variability, climate change and their
impacts, with particular emphasis on the application of regional climate models.
3.2 The Oceans
The oceans and seas are an integral component of the climate system, modulating
climatic behaviour, acting as a source and a sink for important greenhouse gases and
playing a major role in the hydrological cycle. Across South and Southwest Asia,
variations in climate are heavily influenced by changes in oceanic conditions in the
Indian Ocean and the Pacific. The presence of the Asian landmass restricts the Indian
Ocean to south of about 25°N and it cannot export heat gained in the tropics to northern
latitudes. It also gains additional heat that flows through the Indonesian Archipelago from
the tropical Pacific. In consequence, the Indian Ocean has a unique system of currents
and ocean-atmosphere interactions that redistribute heat in order to keep the ocean in
approximate long-term thermal equilibrium. It interacts strongly with the surrounding
landmasses, resulting in the well-known monsoon, or seasonal cycle, of Asia, Africa and
Australia. As a result of short-term imbalances in oceanic heat storage, the climate
system in the region tends to vary energetically on a wide range of time scales from a
few weeks to years and decades. Though this variability is documented and at least
partially understood in the atmosphere, our understanding of the role of ocean dynamics
in the regional climate system is limited due to the scarcity of sustained in-situ
oceanographic observations from Indian Ocean waters. In addition to their influence on
climate, the oceans and seas of the region are of substantial socio-economic
importance. Marine transportation, coastal and offshore hydrocarbon production, fishing,
aquaculture and ocean-related tourism represent important economic sectors in coastal
nations. Moreover, low lying coastlines and island nations such as the Maldives are, as
mentioned earlier, threatened by rising sea levels due to a warming global climate that
will exacerbate the impacts of cyclone-induced storm surges. Consequently, systematic
observation of the ocean component of the climate system represents an important
priority for the region.
3.2.1 Ocean Observing Networks – Present Status
The GCOS observational focus is on systematic, long-term, monitoring at global to
regional scales. However, systematic observational activities in the world's oceans have,
until recent years, been largely limited to surface parameters used in marine weather
and sea state forecasts and in sea level predictions. Fortunately, this situation is
changing, and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is gradually developing into
an ocean analogue of the World Weather Watch. The GCOS and GOOS programmes
17
collaborate closely, with the climate element of GOOS being the oceanographic
component of GCOS.
An increasing number of systematic oceanographic observational activities are now
underway under the umbrella of GOOS. Increasingly sophisticated satellite monitoring of
ocean parameters provides an unprecedented level of detail and geographic coverage of
the world's oceans. In-situ oceanographic observations, however, continue to be
essential in validating and calibrating satellite observations and adding the local detail
needed to advance our understanding of ocean processes. These in-situ monitoring
programmes acquire data from moored buoys, surface and sub-surface drifting buoys
and Argo profiling floats. In addition, measurements from vessels participating in the
Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) and Ship of Opportunity Programmes (SOOP),
coordinated by the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and
Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), make a substantial contribution. Some of these ocean
observing systems also supply meteorological data, also contributing to monitoring of the
atmosphere.
3.2.1.1 GLOSS
Long-term observation of sea level is essential in order to detect and monitor trends and
to assess their impacts7, particularly important in view of the threat posed by rising sea
level and its linkage to global climate change. Consequently, the Global Sea Level
Observing System (GLOSS) is a key element of GCOS. The main component8 of
GLOSS is the 'Global Core Network' (GCN) of about 290 sea level stations around the
world. GCN sea level monitoring stations in South and Southwest Asia are listed in
Appendix B-5. Figure 4 below illustrates the October 2004 reporting status of GCN
stations to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), the global archive for
sea level observations. It is clear from the Figure that, although most GLOSS stations in
South and Southwest Asia are operational, problems or deficiencies in reporting are
evident at several of these sites.
In addition to the supply of mean sea level data to the PSMSL, the GLOSS
Implementation Plan 1997 specifies requirements for the free exchange of the original
(typically hourly) sea level data in delayed-mode to an International Sea Level Center.
Furthermore, GLOSS and IODE have initiated a Data Archaeology Project aimed at the
data rescue of sea level information that is currently available only in paper form (charts,
paper tape etc.) and its conversion into computer-accessible form. For news of that
project, see http://www.bodc.ac.uk/projects/slarch/.
7
Measurements of sea level also enhance the safety of harbor and coastal navigation, provide
input to early warning systems, support coral reef protection, underpin studies of coastal erosion
and salt water intrusion, and are used to calibrate satellite observations.
8
Other GLOSS components are: the Long Term Trends (LTT) set, comprising priority gauge
sites for GPS installations to monitor vertical land movements; the (satellite) altimeter calibration
(ALT) set, consisting mostly of island stations; and the ocean circulation (OC) set, used to
complement altimetric coverage of the deep ocean and including gauge pairs at straits and in
polar areas.
18
Figure 4. GLOSS stations within the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level
(PSMSL) dataset, October 2004. The GLOSS stations have been classified into the
following 4 categories:
Category 1: “Operational” stations for which the latest data is 1996 or later.
Category 2: “Probably Operational” stations for which the latest data is
within the period 1986-1995.
Category 3: “Historical” stations for which the latest data is earlier than
1986.
Category 4: “Stations for which no PSMSL data exist.
3.2.1.2 Other Oceanographic Programmes
A number of important regional oceanographic programmes and experiments are
underway in the waters of South and Southwest Asia. Expanding regional networks of
moored meteorological-oceanographic buoys in the Indian Ocean, along with ongoing
VOS, SOOP, drifting buoy, and Argo programmes, provide vital information on
oceanographic conditions. These programmes currently measure and report a range of
oceanographic and atmospheric variables including sea surface temperature (SST),
wave height, air pressure, air temperature, and surface winds. Nevertheless, a major
deficiency has been the absence of a unified approach for the systematic and sustained
observation of the unique and complex, ocean-atmosphere system in the region. The
GOOS Regional Alliance for the Indian Ocean (IOGOOS), the International Buoy
Programme for the Indian Ocean (IBPIO) and the related Western Indian Ocean Marine
Applications Programme (WIOMAP) provide a framework for corrective action.
Consequently, the IOGOOS Indian Ocean Panel (IOP) is now refining a plan for
sustained, basin-scale, ocean observations.
19
Regional to sub-regional needs have also been identified for additional ocean
observations in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the
Bay of Bengal. In the context of GCOS, the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its long
Caspian Sea coastline, is also pursuing enhanced monitoring of the Caspian Sea, in
concert with other member nations of the Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology
and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM). These regional and subregional requirements may necessitate future observational initiatives beyond those
currently proposed by the Indian Ocean Panel.
In the present context, it is important to mention the IOC’s International Oceanographic
Data and Information Exchange (IODE) programme, established to facilitate the
exchange of oceanographic data and information and meet the needs of users. IODE
forms a worldwide service oriented network consisting of DNAs (Designated National
Agencies), NODCs (National Oceanographic Data Centers), RNODCs (Responsible
National Oceanographic Data Centers), and WDCs (World Data Centers –
Oceanography). In South and Southwest Asia, NODCs have been established in Indian,
Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, with the NODC of India also acting as the RNODC for
the Indian Ocean. Deficiencies in ocean data management systems in the region have
been identified by a recent survey, including needs to address very large increases in
data volumes and types, improve data integration, and generate value added products,
and issues of scale. In response, the IODE plans to move to a more decentralized,
"products and services-oriented", model of data management. A recent initiative has
been an Ocean Data and Information Network for the Central Indian Ocean
(ODINCINDIO) Workshop, held in Tehran. This workshop focussed on strengthening
National Oceanographic Data Centers (NODCs), providing training and education,
enhancing national and regional marine data, metadata and information databases, and
pursuing the development and dissemination of useful products.
3.2.2 Overall Assessment for the Oceans
As a GCOS priority, the quality and reliability of sea level monitoring and reporting
programmes at all GLOSS sites in South and Southwest Asia. These stations should be
equipped with up-to-date instrumentation and telecommunications, including GPS
receivers and meteorological instruments. Their observations should be relayed to the
PSMSL global archive in a timely manner. More broadly, the acquisition, quality
assurance, archiving, and free and open exchange of "climate quality" oceanographic
observations in South and Southwest Asian waters should be enhanced. Current plans
and initiatives being pursued under the umbrella of IOGOOS and related programmes
target these priorities in the Indian Ocean and should be encouraged. However, high
priority regional and sub-regional requirements for oceanographic data remain to be
addressed in the Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal,
and adjacent waters. In addition, the rescue and preservation of historical oceanographic
data records must continue to be emphasized in order to provide the long duration time
series needed for climate assessment and prediction.
3.3 The Terrestrial System
The terrestrial environments of South and Southwest Asia are, as noted earlier, highly
varied, ranging from coastal and island ecosystems across deserts, fertile plains and
forested regions to the vast, snow-covered, mountain ranges of the Himalayas. They are
20
closely linked to climate and experience major impacts from seasonal monsoon events,
cyclonic storms, floods, mudslides, droughts, and other phenomena. The long period of
human occupation of the region, urbanization, and economic development in general
have led to land degradation and environmental pollution in many areas. Changes in
land use and land cover continue to occur, modifying the land's radiation balance and
the earth-atmosphere exchanges of heat, moisture, carbon dioxide and other gases.
Global climate change may accelerate this trend, resulting in the migration of species,
changes in agricultural and drainage patterns and glacier regimes.
3.3.1 Terrestrial Observation Networks - Present Status
In view of the preceding realities, systematic monitoring of terrestrial climate variables9 in
South and Southwest is of significant importance. As noted earlier, GCOS is
collaborating with the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) to address
observational needs related to the terrestrial component of the climate system. The
GCOS/GTOS strategy is to develop an initial observing system under the umbrella of
GT-Net - a system of observational networks and projects focused on particular themes,
habitat types, or regions.10 To date, progress in implementing this strategy has been
somewhat uneven, and terrestrial networks for climate have generally not been
developed to the same extent as atmospheric networks. Monitoring of hydrologic
systems, including glaciers, is of particular concern in South and Southwest Asia. In
addition, needs have also been expressed for systematic monitoring of earthatmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor and energy over representative
ecosystems, with particular emphasis on the development of a regional network of
FLUXNET stations.
3.3.1.1 Hydrology
Water resources and their management are vital concerns in South and Southwest Asia.
Large portions of the region are arid or semiarid and have great difficulty meeting their
water needs. Conversely, some nations regularly experience catastrophic floods, often
associated with monsoon events or tropical cyclones. The region's hydrometeorological
observation networks contribute information that is essential to GCOS and other global
programmes as well as being vital for domestic applications. Hydrological services in
the region are contributing to the development of WMO’s World Hydrologic Cycle
Observing System (WHYCOS),11 with the Himalayan-HYCOS representing an important
regional initiative. Under the umbrella of GCOS/GTOS, planning for a Global Terrestrial
9
Terrestrial climate observations focus on properties and attributes that control climate
processes, are affected by climate, serve as indicators of climate change or relate to its impacts.
10
Currently 5 such networks are under development – an Ecology Network (GTN-E), a glacier
network (GTN-G), a Permafrost Network (GTN-P), a Global Flux Tower Network (GTN-Fluxnet)
and a Hydrology Network (GTN-H). In addition, GTOS-endorsed projects are addressing the
Global Observation of Forest Cover (GOFC) project and Net Primary Productivity/Net Ecological
Productivity (NPP/NEP).
11
The objectives of WHYCOS are to strengthen the capacities of hydrological services to
capture and process hydrological data, and meet the needs of their end users for information on
the status and trend of water resources; establish a global network of national hydrological
observatories which provide information of a consistent quality, transmitted in real time to national
and regional databases, via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) of WMO; and promote
and facilitate the dissemination and use of water-related information, using modern information
technology.
21
Network for Hydrology (GTN-H) is also underway, and this global initiative will
undoubtedly involve hydrological services and observational networks in South and
Southwest Asia. At the same time, hydrological observation networks are unevenly
developed across the region, displaying gaps in coverage and deficiencies in data
quality, instrumentation, telecommunications, and staff training in some countries.
3.3.1.2 Glaciers
Glacier signals are important indicators of air temperature trends and are valuable in the
early detection of climate changes. The GCOS Terrestrial Observation Panel for
Climate (TOPC) has, therefore, recommended systematic measurement of key glacier
variables. The Hindu Kush–Himalaya, with the immense Tibetan Plateau, constitutes a
huge catchment of snow and glacier ice that supplies more than 80 percent of the dryseason flows of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra Rivers. The smaller glaciers in
Iran also represent important regional resources, contributing significantly to streamflow
in the northern part of that nation.
Glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas are summer accumulation types,
nourished by the SW monsoon. During recent decades, increased air temperature at
higher elevations has caused negative effects on glacier mass balance, by increasing
the proportion of rain in precipitation, increasing ablation by sensible heat, and
decreasing albedo. In contrast, variations in winter-accumulation glaciers occurring in
the western Himalaya depend on combinations of winter snowfall and summer air
temperature.12 In 1999, a Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology, established by the
International Commission on Snow and Ice (ICSI), recommended the establishment of a
Regional Glacier Monitoring Network (RGMN) in the Himalayan region. Subsequently,
work has been initiated to develop regional capacity in glaciology, with related initiatives
including the preparation of a manual for monitoring glacier mass balance, a recent
workshop at Katmandu, and training course held on the Chota-Shigri benchmark glacier.
3.3.1.3 FLUXNET
FLUXNET is a global network of micrometeorological tower sites that use eddy
covariance methods to measure the exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor,
and energy between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere. The goals of FLUXNET are
to:
-
Understand the mechanisms controlling the flows of CO2, water and energy to
and from the terrestrial biosphere, across the spectrum of time and space
scales; and
-
Provide ground information for validating estimates of net primary productivity,
evaporation and energy absorption that are being generated by sensors
mounted on the NASA TERRA and AQUA satellites.
In practice, FLUXNET is a "network of regional networks", serving as a mechanism for
uniting their activities into an integrated global network. At present, over 300 tower sites
12
High winter snowfall and low summer temperature continuing for several years, increases the
tendency of glaciers to advance, and vice versa.
22
are operating under the FLUXNET umbrella. Data and site information are available
from the FLUXNET web site at:
http://daacsti.ornl.gov/FLUXNET/fluxnet.html
A significant geographic gap in FLUXNET coverage currently exists in South and
Southwest Asia.
3.3.2 Overall Assessment for the Terrestrial Component
Regional hydrological networks and related infrastructure in South and Southwest Asia
need to be enhanced to meet GCOS requirements for hydrological data and support
more timely and accurate prediction of droughts, floods and water resource availability
for agriculture, power generation and other uses. This will necessitate continuing efforts
to rationalize, modernize, and sustain hydrological stations, along with their associated
data management, data exchange and archiving components. Specific needs have been
identified for improvements in telecommunications, upgraded data processing and
archiving systems, including the creation of distributed regional databases, and for
delivery of hydrological products and services to users.
The fact that many glaciers in the Himalayas and Iran are currently in retreat has serious
implications for power generation, agriculture, and other sectors. In the face of a
warming climate, the hundreds of ice-dammed glacier lakes in the Hindu Kush
Himalayan region also pose a flood threat to local populations. Consequently, significant
expansion of glacier monitoring needs to be undertaken. A regional glacier monitoring
network should be established that includes the designation of at least one benchmark
glacier in each of the countries in the Hindu Kush region, and systematic observation of
Iranian glaciers should be enhanced. Satellite monitoring of glacier characteristics and
behaviour should also be given increased emphasis, drawing on the expertise of the
South Asia Centre of the NASA/USGS GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements from
Space) project and other institutions.
The existence of a substantial regional gap in the global FLUXNET network provides the
rationale for the establishment of additional FLUXNET sites in South and Southwest
Asia, with the objective of providing observational data over representative terrestrial
ecosystems in the region.
3.4 Remote Sensing
Many GCOS requirements for systematic observations can only be met in a practical
and cost-effective manner by the use of space-based observing systems. South and
Southwest Asia encompasses highly varied topography and climate and includes a vast
oceanic area. Satellite observations are, therefore, particularly important in monitoring its
climate. Fortunately, satellites operated by various nations and international missions
provide extensive remote sensing coverage over South and Southwest Asia. Data from
METEOSAT, NOAA, DMSP, GOES, POES, GMS, FY-2, INSAT, TERRA, AQUA and
other satellites are being received and processed while India plans exist to launch
additional satellites in the near future.
Most South and Southwest Asian nations possess some capability to acquire and utilize
satellite data and several have well-developed, satellite remote sensing programmes
23
and institutes. A web-based Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Centre
(MOSDAC) is being established at the Space Applications Centre (ISRO) in
Ahmedabad, India and will contain meteorological and climatological data from various
Indian and international satellite missions. The satellite data are used for variety of
climatological applications including studies of desertification, the role of aerosols in
regional climate and the monsoon circulation and for the generation of land surface data
for use in regional climate models for impact studies.
3.4.1 Overall Assessment for Remote Sensing
Considerable capability to receive, process, and apply satellite remote sensing data is
already in place in South and Southwest Asia, but there are substantial variations in
reception and processing facilities and expertise between different nations. The
application of satellite technologies to the observation and exchange of data on the
climate system must, therefore, continue to be encouraged and facilitated. Needs exist
to improve infrastructure in many countries, facilitate users' access to satellite data and
products, expand the retrieval and validation of satellite-derived parameters and
enhance satellite data processing and applications capabilities. Capacity building and
investment initiatives need to be undertaken in response to these needs, taking
advantage of regional and other training institutions to further develop national and
regional capabilities in data preprocessing, product retrievals, and application of satellite
products.
3.5 Regional Coordination and Organization
GCOS is a global programme that is closely inter-linked with and reliant upon other
global and regional programmes. It is also being implemented through national
contributions that are often delivered by several different agencies within each country.
Consequently, the need for effective coordination is a recurring theme at both
international and domestic levels13. At present, however, no over-arching organizational
infrastructure exists in South and Southwest Asia to facilitate GCOS-related
coordination. Though sectoral structures are in place, such as the WMO Regional
Associations and IOGOOS, no broadly-based regional forum or centralized web site
exists to bring the various climate stakeholders together as a coherent group with a
focus on systematic climate observations. Moreover, many nations have not designated
a national GCOS Focal Point with responsibility to coordinate climate system observing
and data management and exchange issues across all of their involved government
departments and agencies and to act as an interface between national, regional, and
global GCOS concerns.
3.5.1 Overall Assessment
The implementation of the present Action Plan will require close cooperation between
the nations of South and Southwest Asia in the common pursuit of initiatives and funding
opportunities and to pool capacities to achieve operational goals. Within individual
countries, enhanced domestic coordination will also be required between agencies,
institutions, and client groups involved in climate system monitoring, data management
13
The IPCC has identified that coordination is becoming more and more critical because of
common factors affecting climate variability and climate change (e.g., the ENSO phenomenon)
and has encouraged cooperative regional actions in undertaking activities of common interest.
24
and applications. A more coherent regional approach could yield benefits in areas such
as data management, data access and exchange, maintenance of observing systems,
and in the purchase of equipment and consumables. It could also assist in optimizing
the design of observing networks and data archives; delivering training courses,
graduate, and post-graduate studies and other capacity building efforts; and in the
planning and conduct of research programmes.
These regional and national
requirements for cooperation and coordination must be addressed by establishing
appropriate coordination structures. Links already established by WMO's Regional
Associations and other regional bodies provide a base from which to develop improved
regional coordination with respect to GCOS and to encourage related domestic
initiatives within individual countries. The designation by all countries of national Focal
Points for GCOS would represent a useful initial measure.
4.
SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO ADDRESS ISSUES AND REQUIREMENTS
An effective Regional GCOS Action Plan should first address global GCOS
requirements, aiming to ensure the long-term operation of the regional components of
the primary GCOS networks (e.g., GSN, GUAN, GAW, GLOSS) to established
standards. While this, in itself, will contribute substantially to meeting regional needs, a
truly meaningful Plan will, as stressed earlier, also address other high regional priorities.
The following sections outline specific projects and recommendations that will:
4.1
-
Significantly enhance the abilities of the nations of South and Southwest Asia
to meet GCOS, regional, and national requirements for observations and
related products.
-
Improve domestic coordination among national institutions, agencies and
individuals engaged in climate data collection, data management, data
exchange, and production of related products and services and with the user
community.
-
Improve coordination across the region and with international programmes to
ensure regional and global needs for climate data are met.
Action Plan Projects
Substantial capacity building and investment in infrastructure must be undertaken in
South and Southwest Asia if the objectives of this Regional GCOS Action Plan are to be
met. The high priority projects identified in the following sections are targeted at critical
deficiencies in regional programmes. Detailed descriptions of these projects may be
found in Appendices P-1 through P-9.
4.1.1 The Atmosphere
The most immediate atmospheric priority is to ensure that GSN, GUAN and other GCOS
stations operate to specified standards, relay their data in a timely manner and sustain
their operations over the long term. Project 1, “Enabling Improved Regional
Assessments of Climate Change by Strengthening GCOS Global Surface Network
(GSN) and Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) Monitoring Activities,” is targeted at
this priority (Appendix P-1).
25
Aerosol monitoring is also an important priority in South and Southwest Asia and Project.
2, “Establishing Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Aerosol Monitoring Within the
Region,” targets this requirement (Appendix P-2).
4.1.2
The Oceans
A systematic ocean observing system is needed to support climate modeling and
prediction, assist South and Southwest Asian nations in managing their coastal and
ocean environments and underpin the provision of ocean products and services. The
CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel on Climate has developed a comprehensive plan to
address these requirements in the Indian Ocean. This plan is endorsed by the region
and is presented as Project 3, “The CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel Report on
Plans for Sustained Observations for Climate” (Appendix P-3).
There are, as noted earlier, regional concerns related to coastal oceans, the Persian
Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Caspian Sea that will require monitoring initiatives beyond
those proposed by the Indian Ocean Panel Plan.
4.1.3 Terrestrial Systems
Water resource management is of critical importance to the nations of South and
Southwest Asia. Reflecting this priority, Project 4 is directed towards “Enhancing the
Availability and Use of Hydrological Data” in the region (Appendix P-4).
The retreat of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya and in the Islamic Republic of Iran
has serious implications for the management of regional water resources. In
consequence, Project 5 focuses on “Monitoring Glaciers for Water Resources” in
South and Southwest Asia (Appendix P-5).
A significant gap currently exists in that global FLUXNET observational network for
monitoring earth-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor and energy. Project
6, “FLUXNET – South and Southwest Asia,” aims to establish additional FLUXNET
stations in the region (Appendix P-6).
4.1.4 Data
Project 7, “Needed Improvements in Database Management and Data Rescue for
Climate Assessment,” addresses requirements for improved database management
and data rescue in the region (Appendix P-7).
4.1.5 Capacity Building
Project 8 focuses on “Building Regional Capacity for Satellite Applications to
Climate and National Development,” with a view to enabling nations in South and
Southwest Asia make optimum use of remote sensing and other capabilities of satellite
platforms (Appendix P-8).
Regional climate models are the best available tool for the development of future climate
scenarios needed for national and regional assessments of the impacts of climate and
climate change. Project 9, “Developing capabilities within the region for assessing
climate variability and change, including regional modeling” enables nations in the
26
region to utilize these tools effectively in managing the impacts of future climates
(Appendix P-9).
4.2
Action Plan Recommendations
The following recommendations address important issues that do not readily lend
themselves to project-based approaches but, nevertheless, require special emphasis
within this Regional Action Plan.
(a) Coordination
Sustained, well-coordinated, efforts by the climate community in South and Southwest
Asia are essential for the implementation of this Regional GCOS Action Plan and for the
effective delivery of GCOS programmes in the region. It is, therefore, recommended
that all countries in South and Southwest Asia should designate appropriate
individuals as their National Focal Points for GCOS.
In addition, it is
recommended that a Regional Steering Committee (RSC) should be established,
composed of EC Members of WMO RA II from South and Southwest Asia. This
Regional Steering Committee would meet annually at WMO EC meetings and
discuss policy matters and future courses of action. Finally, a Principal
Coordinator should be designated to network with the National GCOS Focal
Points and GCOS Project Coordinators. (Proposed Terms of Reference for the
Principal Coordinator are included in Appendix B-6).
(b) Data
Decision makers require easy access to representative climate data in order to manage
the impacts of climate in South and Southwest Asia. It is, therefore, recommended that
sustained emphasis should be given to improving climate data exchange, data
access, and data management within the region.
Some former colonial powers possess unique historical climate records for South and
Southwest Asian countries that are now independent nations.
It is, therefore,
recommended that vital historical datasets in the possession of former colonial
powers should, as a matter of urgency, be transferred to the relevant authorities in
the countries where the data were collected.
(c) Biodiversity
Biodiversity issues are of high relevance to the South and Southwest Asian region. It is
therefore recommended that the region develop projects to study and
systematically monitor sensitive ecosystems like coastal mangroves.
(d) National Reporting
The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) has requested that Parties to the Convention prepare and
submit National Reports on systematic climate observations14 in support of GCOS and
14
The UNFCCC, with the assistance of GCOS, has prepared guidelines to assist countries in
preparing these reports.
27
related programmes. It is, therefore, recommended that nations that have not already
done so should prepare and submit National Reports on the status of their
national programmes for systematic observation of the climate system.
(e) GEOSS
The GEOSS initiative to enhance observations of the earth system is of great relevance
to GCOS efforts in the region, as it recognizes that consequences and causes of
changes in the earth system happen at local scales. Observing systems related to
natural hazards, desertification, and biodiversity loss that are important to the South and
Southwest Asian region are included in the implementation plans for GEOSS. In
consequence, it is recommended that the implementation of the Regional GCOS
Action Plan should be aligned so as to complement the GEOSS initiatives.
4.3 Action Plan Outputs
The following table summarizes the specific outputs that will result from implementation
of the projects outlined in the preceding section.
PROJECTS
OUTPUTS
Project 1
Observations from GSN and GUAN stations that meet the
demanding GCOS quality standards required for identification of
climatic trends and assessment of climate impacts.
Project 2
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosol observations that meet GCOS
quality standards required for assessing and modeling climate
system behaviour and for regional air quality management.
Project 3
Representative observations of Indian Ocean structure and
changes needed for climate modeling and other applications.
Project 4
High quality, readily accessible, hydrological observations for
water resources management and climate impact assessments.
Project 5
Representative observational data sets from benchmark glaciers in
the Hindu Kush /Himalaya and in Iran, to support water resources
management, climate impact assessments and flood prediction.
Project 6
High quality regional datasets of fluxes of CO2, water vapor and
energy to fill a gap in the global FLUXNET observation network.
Project 7
High quality, long-duration, historical climate databases needed to
assess climate variability and change are preserved and made
readily accessible to decision makers.
Project 8
South and Southwest Asian nations acquire state-of-the-art
capabilities in the application of satellite remote sensing for climate
impact assessments and national development.
28
Project 9
South and Southwest Asian nations are enabled to apply regional
climate models to develop climate scenarios needed to assess
and manage the impacts of climate and climate change.
4.4 Anticipated Impacts, Benefits, and Beneficiaries
Direct benefits from the preceding projects and recommendations will include improved
understanding and more accurate prediction of climatic extremes, climatic variability and
climate change. This will assist decision-makers in mitigating natural disasters such as
floods, droughts, and disease outbreaks, increasing human and environmental security,
reducing poverty and supporting sustainable development. In short, modest present-day
investments in upgrading the quality, spatial coverage, timeliness and accessibility of
systematic climate observations and related products will yield high-multiple returns for
present and future generations.
Enhancement of the quality and spatial and temporal representation of climate
observations will, for example, facilitate science-based decisions on crop selection and
land use, leading to increased agricultural productivity and reduced rural poverty. It will
permit more effective and sustainable management of water resources through
improved understanding and prediction of the impacts of changes in the precipitation
regime or in runoff from mountain glaciers on agriculture, power generation and on water
supply for people.
The design of dams, bridges, drainage systems, buildings and other vulnerable
infrastructure components will benefit from better definition of the climatic forces arising
from heavy rainfalls, floods, and high winds. In addition, greater awareness and
understanding of climatic patterns and extremes and their impacts on human health will
enable measures to be taken to prevent or control outbreaks of diseases associated with
particular climatic conditions, with the greatest positive impacts on the poorest segments
of the population.
Enhanced understanding of trends and variations in sea level, ocean currents, ocean
temperature regimes and ocean-atmosphere interactions will facilitate sustainable
fisheries management and safe and reliable marine transportation. It will also minimize
the human and environmental hazards associated with coastal and offshore
hydrocarbon exploration and development. This information will enable coastal zone
developments to be planned and managed so as to minimize hazards to people and
infrastructure resulting from rising sea levels, storm surges and tsunamis.
As will have been evident from the preceding discussion, the beneficiaries of improved
knowledge and prediction of climatic conditions and their impacts encompass all sectors
of society. Government and private sector decision-makers will be empowered to plan
for and manage climate-related contingencies on the basis of more realistic future
climate scenarios. Disaster management agencies and relief services will benefit from
improved analyses of the hazards, vulnerabilities and risks associated with climatic
extremes. Public health organizations will be better able to anticipate outbreaks of
climate related and vector borne diseases and to implement measures to protect
vulnerable populations. The security and economic stability of the agricultural community
and of poor rural populations will benefit from more sustainable crop selection and
management practices that accommodate anticipated climatic variations and trends.
29
Corresponding benefits will flow to fishing, transportation, merchandising and other
climate sensitive sectors by enabling them to mitigate adverse impacts of climate and
take advantage of opportunities presented by particular events.
5. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
The implementation of the initiatives in this Regional Action Plan will require additional
resource commitments. A practical strategy for mobilizing resources to implement this
Plan comprises two parallel thrusts:
1. Targeting national governments as the primary funding sources to
sustain systematic climate observation networks and related data
management, analysis and service provision systems over the longterm.
2. Seeking external donor funding to undertake GCOS-related capacity
building and infrastructure improvements in South and Southwest
Asia.
With respect to the first thrust, the region recognizes that the most realistic sources of
funding to ensure the long-term sustainability of systematic climate observation
programmes are the national governments of the region. Hence, national governments
will be targeted as the primary funding sources to sustain long-term systematic
observation.
Nevertheless, there exist substantial needs for GCOS-related capacity building and
infrastructure improvements that cannot be met by the resources available within the
region. For these resource requirements, external funding will be sought from
international agencies, non-governmental organizations, donor countries, and such
financial mechanisms as the Global Environment Facility and World Bank.
Fundamentally, the improvements in climate observing systems and related analysis,
prediction and service provision capabilities that will result from implementation of the
projects in this Action Plan will support economic growth and assist in poverty reduction,
with associated benefits related to education, health, and good government. Given that
such priorities are emphasized in the long-term development agenda of the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, the region has every reason to expect that
the projects contained in this Action Plan will be given due consideration by the more
advanced countries. At the same time, it is hoped that the need to respond to
commitments arising from the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol will provide a strong
incentive for developed countries to work with the developing countries in the region to
implement worthwhile climate-related projects.
In seeking resources, the proponents of this Action Plan also recognize that international
development assistance is increasingly being provided through the budgetary processes
of national governments. Hence, an important strategy for NMHSs, oceanographic
agencies, and other project proponents will be to develop closer relationships with
bureaucratic and political decision-makers in their own countries. Likewise, the
proponents will demonstrate how project activities and initiatives support national
government priorities (for example, services to rural populations, poverty reduction, and
public health). Finally, given that political leaders rely on the advice of national Climate
30
Change Coordinators and others in the climate change community, improved
coordination with these key people will be pursued, both with respect to assistance in
obtaining resources for Action Plan projects and in helping to communicate the many
important applications of climate data to decision-makers.
It will be necessary to further develop this general resource mobilization strategy. With
this goal in mind, the region proposes to consider more precisely who to approach for
funding assistance for the projects contained in this Plan and how to go about it. It will
be useful to confer with resource mobilization specialists and also to seek the advice,
assistance, and contacts of the GCOS Secretariat, WMO, IOC, and other relevant
bodies in formulating, targeting, and presenting project proposals for funding. It will also
be useful to consider how, whenever relevant, the projects contained in this Plan can be
coordinated with other ongoing projects.
6.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
This Regional GCOS Action Plan has reviewed the status of GCOS implementation in
South and Southwest Asia, identifying areas where improvements are needed in climate
observing programmes and networks and in related data management and data
exchange and in climate analysis, modeling and impact assessment capabilities. It has
proposed specific projects and made recommendations to address these deficiencies. It
has also outlined a resource mobilization strategy to support implementation of
improvements and to sustain the long-term operation of critical GCOS systems. The
enhancements advocated in the Plan will ensure the availability of vital observational
records, underpinning climate change detection, climate modeling and prediction and
climate impact assessment. They will, in addition, result in the development and
application of up-to-date analysis and climate modeling capabilities to assist decisionmakers in managing the impacts of future climates. It is hoped that the Action Plan will
prove to be an effective tool in gaining the support of governments and donors for its
proposed initiatives.
31
SELECTED REFERENCES
Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for South America on Improving
Observing Systems for Climate. GCOS-86, Santiago, Chile, 14 - 16 October 2003.
Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate.
GCOS-82, April 2003.
Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for Western and Central Africa on
Improving Observing Systems for Climate. GCOS-85, Niamey, Niger, 27 - 29 March
2003.
Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for East and Southeast Asia on
Improving Observing Systems for Climate. GCOS-80, Singapore, 16 - 18 September
2002.
Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for Central America and the Caribbean.
GCOS-78,
San
Jose,
Costa
Rica,
19
21
March
2002.
Report of the GCOS Regional Workshop for Eastern and Southern Africa on
Improving Observing Systems for Climate. GCOS-74, Kisumu, Kenya, 3 - 5 October
2001.
Report of the Pacific Islands Regional Implementation Workshop on Improving
Global Climate Observing Systems. GCOS-62, Apia, Samoa, 14-15 August 2000.
Report on the Adequacy of the Global Climate Observing Systems.
GCOS-48, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, November 2-13
1998, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
32
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ADCP
ALT
AQUA
AWS
BAPMoN
BSRN
CASPCOM
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler
Altimeter Calibration
EOS Satellite (water focus)
Automatic Weather Station
WMO Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network
Baseline Surface Radiation Network
Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Pollution Monitoring
of the Caspian Sea
CLIMAT
WMO Message Format for Surface Climatological Data
CLIMAT TEMP WMO Message Format for Upper Air Climatological Data
CLIVAR
Climate Variability and Predictability
CBS
Commission for Basic Systems
COP
Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC
CPPS
Permanent Commission of the South Pacific
DARE
WMO Data Rescue Project
DCP
Data Collection Platform
DMSP
Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
DNA
Designated National Agencies
DWD
Deutscher Wetterdienst
ECMWF
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
EOS
Earth Observing System
ENSO
El Niño Southern Oscillation
FY-2
Feng Yun 2 - Chinese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GAW
Global Atmosphere Watch
GAWSIS
GAW Station Information System
GCN
Global Core Network (of GLOSS)
GCOS
Global Climate Observing System
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GEO
Group on Earth Observations
GEOSS
Global Earth Observation System of Systems
GEWEX
Global Energy and Water Experiment
GIS
Geographic Information System
GLIMS
Gobal Land Ice Measurements from Space
GLOSS
Global Sea Level Observing System
GMES
Global Monitoring for Environment and Security
GMS
Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
GCN
GLOSS Global Core Network
GOFC
Global Observation of Forest Cover
GOOS
Global Ocean Observing System
GPS
Global Positioning System
GSN
GCOS Surface Network
GSNMC
GCOS Surface Network Monitoring Centre
GTOS
Global Terrestrial Observing System
GTN-E
Global Terrestrial Network for Ecology
GTN-Fluxnet Global Flux Tower Network
GTN-G
Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers
GTN-H
Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology
33
GTN-P
GTNet
GTOS
GTS
GUAN
GURME
HYCOS
IBPIO
ICSI
ICSU
IGOS
INSAT
IOC
IODE
IOGOOS
IOP
IPCC
IRI
ISRO
ITCZ
JCOMM
JMA
LTT
METEOSAT
MOSDAC
MSC
MSG
NASA
NCDC
NEP
NGO
NHS
NMC
NMHS
NMS
NOAA
NODC
NPP
NWP
OC
ODINCINDIO
OECD
OOS
PMEL
POES
PSMSL
RBCN
RBSN
RGMN
RNODC
Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost
Global Terrestrial Network
Global Terrestrial Observing System
WMO Global Telecommunications System
GCOS Upper Air Network
GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment
Hydrologic Cycle Observing System
International Buoy Programme for the Indian Ocean
International Commission for Snow and Ice
International Council for Science
Integrated Global Observing Strategy
Indian Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO
International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange
GOOS Regional Alliance for the Indian Ocean
Indian Ocean Panel
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
Indian Space Applications Centre
Inter-tropical Convergence Zone
Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
Japan Meteorological Agency
Long Term Trends
Geosynchronous Meteorology Satellite
Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Centre
Meteorological Service of Canada
METEOSAT Second Generation
US National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Climatic Data Center (US)
Net Ecological Productivity
Non Governmental Organization
National Hydrological Service
National Meteorological Center
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
National Meteorological Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Oceanographic Data Centre
Net Primary Productivity
Numerical Weather Prediction
Ocean Circulation
Ocean Data and Information Network for the Central Indian Ocean
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Ocean Observing System
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Polar Operational Environmental Satellite
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level
Regional Basic Climatological Network
Regional Baseline Synoptic Network
Regional Glacier Monitoring Network
Responsible National Oceanographic Data Centre
34
RNODC-SOC Responsible National Oceanographic Data Centre for the Southern
Oceans
RSC
Regional Steering Committee (GCOS)
RTH
Regional Telecommunications Hub
SATCOM
Satellite Communications
SOOP
Ship of Opportunity Programme
SST
Sea surface temperature
TAO
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean
TAO/TRITON Tropical Atmosphere Ocean/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network
TEMS
Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites
TERRA
EOS Flagship Satellite
TIGA
Pilot Project for Continuous GPS Monitoring at Tide Gauge Sites
TOPC
Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate
UKMO
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
UN
United Nations
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO
United Nations Economic, Social and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USGS
US Geological Survey
VCP
Voluntary Cooperation Programme
VOS
Voluntary Observing Ship
WCRP
World Climate Research Program
WDC
World Data Center
WDCGG
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases
WDCPC
World Data Centre for Precipitation Chemistry
WGMS
World Glacier Monitoring Service
WOUDC
World Ozone and Ultra-Violet Radiation Data Centre
WRDC
World Radiation Data Centre
WRMC
World Radiation Monitoring Centre
WEFAX
Weather Facsimile
WHYCOS
World Hydrological Cycle Observing System
WIOMAP
Western Indian Ocean Marine Applications Programme
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
WWW
World Weather Watch
XBT
Expendable Bathythermograph
35
APPENDICES P-1 TO P-9
PROJECTS
36
APPENDIX P-1
Enabling Improved Regional Assessments of Climate Change by Strengthening
the GCOS Surface Network (GSN) and GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN)
Monitoring Activities
Background:
The GCOS network was originally designed as a standard framework for developing and
improving denser national networks and with a view that the existence of the network will
encourage the preservation and exchange of data in the future. Station density of one
per 250,000 square kilometers was considered adequate to monitor global and large
hemispheric temperature variability for enabling supporting analysis of other elements. It
was, however, fully recognized that analysis of elements like rainfall, that exhibit lower
spatial correlation than temperature, will require denser networks. With this network
design, the objectives of the Global Climate Observing System were to provide data
required to meet the needs for climate system monitoring, climate change detection, and
research for improved understanding, modeling, and prediction of the climate system.
There are 52 GSN sites and 4 GUAN sites located in the South and Southwest Asia
region (Appendix B - 2 and B – 3). In the regional context, the adequacy of the network
for improved assessments of regional climate change and for better understanding of
region-specific climate elements; including the requirements for integration and
evaluation of regional climate models, needs to be rigorously assessed before
recommending further improvements. The fundamental driver that sustains
observational networks is the utility of the data and information generated by them. It is
therefore very important to build capacities in the region to utilize the data emerging from
GSN/GUAN networks.
Original selection of GSN stations was solely based on the suitability of data for climate
analysis, resulting in a well-distributed network with long-term data availability. About
92% of the GSN stations have WMO numbers and 89% reported synoptic data (as of
1995). This implies that data for these stations are already being exchanged
internationally and designation of a station as a GSN station imposes only an
incremental responsibility of ensuring continuity in reporting and reduction of errors and
biases as a result of monthly averaging.
Issues Relevant to the Region
-
Need for improvements in timeliness and reliability of reporting and in coding of
CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP message from some stations.
-
Requirement of submission of historical data and metadata updates.
-
Need for enhanced regional co-operation as an effective approach for
addressing these problems.
-
Enhancement of marine observations – Red Sea, Arabian Sea and Persian
Gulf.
37
-
Climate data management systems – powerful querying capabilities. (replacing
CLICOM)
-
Improvement in communication links.
-
Data rescue efforts through digitization of manual records.
-
Need for more GSN stations – appropriateness of GSN stations included from
the region – creation of Regional Climate Networks based on RCSs
(Reference Climatological Stations)
Objectives:
1) To enable high quality and timely GSN/GUAN reports through improved data
management software.
2) Create capacities for utilizing CLIMAT data for regional and National Climate change
assessments and to identify priority issues.
3) Explore possibilities for enhancing GSN/GUAN and strengthen regional climate
observation networks, including mechanisms to incorporate ocean observations like
CLIMAT SHIP and other similar platforms.
Elements of the proposed software system:
1) Typically, the software system shall be resident on a high-end workstation (high
clock speed and measuring) with adequate peripheral data storage capability (Terra
byte) 32/64 bit processors capable of handling high-end graphics.
2) Located at NMAS HQ. Climatology/Climate change monitoring centre or Division,
Cell, Units coordinated by GCOS focal points. (At each NMHS).
3) Connected to GTS data source/ AMDR, SADIS and other sources of observed data
streams.
4) Also, capable of ingesting historical data files in user specified formats, text files,
binary files.
5) Data interfaces capable of handling common atmospheric data formats including
GRIB, BUFR, Net CDF, HDF etc.
6) Pick up SYNOP data and prepare CLIMAT reports; do QC/QA and for a initial period
check with CLIMAT reports generated by existing system prepare reports on time –
delay, quality, health of stations, particularly GSN / GUAN; report on potential of
stations to be upgraded as RBCN → CLIMAT → Reg. CLIMAT, GSN / GUAN.
7) Identification of problems / silent stations / particular parameter.
8) Compare with monitoring reports generated by global monitoring centers (will
depend on Internet connectivity).
38
9) Create gridded data sets of important climate parameters for the region to facilitate
assessments.
10) Near-real time National climate summaries, for example Monthly summary giving
information on – What were the highest / lowest temperatures recorded?
On average anomalies of temperature during the month? How many years in the
past have such high temperature? and when did they occur? What was the spatial
extent of positive or negative temperature anomalies? Extreme weather events ( 2σ
> X > σ).
11) GIS capabilities / Visualization.
12) Climate change assessments
Temperature trend reports Max. / Min.
DTR
Rainfall
Intensity
Dry / wet spell
Generate paf.
Shifts in normality
Drought / aridity indices
Wx. events like 13 days etc.
Cloudiness and type of cloud predominance
13) Applications like degree days, high RH spells, rainfall-related applications, stability
based advisories etc.
Project Design:
Design and develop a suitable software package that shall be capable of isolating
designated GSN/GUAN information from CLIMAT and SYNOP messages relevant for
nations from the GTS. The software shall be also capable of ingesting directly CLIMAT
style reports and summaries from regular climate stations in conventional formats, both
historical and current. The software system shall be designed after taking into account
existing systems at NMHS and availability of hardware and GTS link speeds etc. To the
extent possible, the system platform shall be independent and based an open source
software environments. The graphical user interface shall be designed for climate and
climate change monitoring applications and with GIS capabilities. It shall be highly user
friendly and compatible with popular software/hardware environments. After
development and initial testing, the software package will be distributed to all Member
countries in the region free of cost, at a training workshop proposed to be held at New
Delhi. The workshop shall also make available detailed manuals for the software system.
After distribution to all member countries (focal points) in the South and Southwest Asian
region, a request shall be made to use the package and prepare CLIMAT messages and
other climate change assessments of the climate elements monitored for their respective
countries.
Thereafter, organize a workshop to collate experiences about the software package and
also prepare a regional climate change assessment, based on results contributed by
each national participant. The focus of the workshop discussions will be proposals for
39
additional GSN/GUAN stations and the need for creating a regional climate change
monitoring. These discussions will pursued in the context of the regional climate change
assessment noted above. The software system will be upgraded or modified to
incorporate feedback from the workshop. Further monitoring, and inclusion of the
proposed stations into either regional networks or GSN/GUAN will be undertaken in
accordance with overall GCOS objectives and recommendation of the GCOS steering
committee.
Location:
India - the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shall offer to co-ordinate the project.
This is being proposed keeping in-view the IT capabilities available in India and the
capacities of IMD in terms of observational networks, telecommunication and climate
change monitoring. The workshop and wrap-up meeting could be held at any member
country in the region.
Duration:
5 years (in a phased manner).
Expected Outcomes:
The proposed system will ensure timely delivery of quality-assured CLIMAT reports for
GSN/GUAN stations in the region and facilitate frequent updating of metadata.
The software system, and the process as a whole, would build capacities in the region to
undertake regional climate change assessments and utilization of climate information.
Implementation:
Activity
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Consultations
for
software
design
Software Design
and
implementation
in
member
countries
Workshop
for
Regional climate
Change
assessment
Upgrade and fix
problems in the
Software
package
Climate Change
assessment and
40
application
studies
at
Member
countries
studies
Wrap-up
Meeting
for
enhancing
GSN/GUAN
stations in the
region/explore
possibilities for
regional
networks
Risk and Sustainability:
The risks associated with software development and deployment are relatively low.
However, it must be ensured that the efforts build on existing data management systems
that are registered with WMO. The design of the software system will be key to the
success of the project, as a user-friendly system, with capability to demonstrate the
utility of Climate data, will ensure its sustained use and contribute to improvements to
the GSN-GUAN.
Indicative Budget:
Design and implementation of Software systems
Two workshops
Consultants
Total
USD 50,000
USD 40,000
USD 10,000
USD 100,000
41
Annex 1: Current position of GSN and GUAN stations in the South and Southwest
Asian Region
Country
Afghanistan
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Maldives
Nepal
Oman
Pakistan
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Sri Lanka
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Total
GSN
1
1
21
7
1
1
1
1
3
6
GUAN
Remarks
1
1
6
2
1
1
52
4
1
(Author: Dr. G. Srinivasan, Director & GCOS Focal Point, India Meteorological Department, New
Delhi, India)
42
APPENDIX P-2
Strengthening the GAW network in South and Southwest Asia
Background:
The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme of WMO provides data for scientific
assessments and for early warnings of changes that may have adverse effects on our
environment. It includes a coordinated global network of observing stations along with
supporting facilities. The monitoring priorities for GAW have been - greenhouse gases
for possible climate change, ozone and ultraviolet radiation for both climate and
biological concerns, and certain reactive gases and the chemistry of precipitation for a
multitude of roles in pollution chemistry.
The GAW programme has a Global network and a Regional network. The present
network of GAW Global stations consists of 22 stations. The Regional stations number
approximately 300 but activities of many of these stations are very loosely coordinated.
The Global stations are usually situated in remote locations - representative of large
geographic areas, have very low (background) levels of pollutants, and continuously
measure a broad range of atmospheric parameters over decades. It is important to note
that Global station sites must be entirely free from effects of local and regional pollution
sources for substantial periods throughout the year. Data are typically applied to global
issues. On the other hand, GAW Regional stations are usually representative of smaller
geographic regions but sited so as not to get affected by nearby sources of pollution
such as vehicles, industrial combustion or agricultural activities. Measured parameters
vary considerably at Regional stations, and depend upon the regional needs.
What is immediately noticeable is that the entire South and Southwest Asian region does
not have Global stations, or even Regional stations with a strict protocol, thus severely
impairing the reliability of global assessments. But, Regional programmes with nonuniform protocols do exist in the region, such as the BAPMoN and Ozone programmes
in India measuring precipitation chemistry, atmospheric turbidity and ozone and column
ozone measurement programs conducted from Abudhabi, Isfahn and Quetta. The
climatically and environmentally important parameters for this region are aerosol
composition, aerosol radiative properties, aerosol transport, vertical ozone distribution
and greenhouse gases.
The aerosol measurements will have the advantage of giving respective countries
information on the types of aerosols that are locally generated and on their impacts. The
GHG measurements can establish the regional annual cycle and be used in inverse
carbon cycle models to give an idea of source and sinks of GHGs in the region. Finally,
ozone, being a reactive gas, has profound influence on the atmospheric chemistry of the
region. Its origin is from local pollution as well as the stratosphere. Hence tropospheric
ozone variability reflects some of the important processes related to pollution and
general circulation as well.
43
Objective(s):
-
To open 2 stations (at least) in the region for continuous surface
measurements of CO2, CH4 and N2O - one station representing semi-arid and
the other representing humid climates.
To open 5 stations (at least) in the region to measure surface and column
aerosol properties – to identify the types of aerosols that are generated insitu
in the region and/or are transported from out side.
To open 3 stations in the region for measurement of vertical ozone distribution
using ozone-sondes, co-located with existing Brewers/ Dobson (Abudhabi,
Isfahn, Qetta)
To designate a regional GAW centre assigned with the task of quality
assurance, quality control, training of personnel and research.
The stations will be managed by respective national focal points and can include
additional monitoring programmes of specific national interest.
Location:
GHG Monitoring
Semi-arid location – to be located in West Asia(Iran)
Humid/ Subhumid – Central India (choice left to India Meteorological Department)
Aerosols
Northwestern Iran, Western/ Central Pakistan, Central Nepal, Northeastern India, East
central India
Ozone
Oman / Dubai, Isfahn (Iran), Quetta (Pakistan)
Regional GHG Centre
Suggested location – New Delhi (Headquarters for IMD programme CREM)
Duration:
All projects are long term programmes intending to document the trends in
environmental parameters and are dependent on long term support from respective
countries.
Project Design:
Tasks common to all projects
Site criterion:
The station locations should be selected so as not to be affected by local GHG sources
for most parts of the year. Should have a land cover representative of a vast area.
Site preparation:
Should designate and post staff with appropriate training
Should procure monitoring equipment in accordance with WMO standards
Should install the requisite QA/QC protocols
44
GHG Monitoring
Equipment
Online Analysers, NDIR for CO2 and Gas Chromatographs for N2O and CH4.
Inlet mast with an inlet manifold at 10 m height with inlet filter and pumps.
Hardware and software for online data processing and offline QC and archival.
Link to Internet.
Meteorological sensors for Temp, Winds, Relative Humidity, Pressure.
Calibration
Procurement of calibration tanks for laboratory standards
Local generation of working standards
Periodic participation in WMO inter-comparisons
Operations
Measurement to be made in continuous mode
Alternate cycles of analyzer baseline check and ambient gas measurements
Reporting of meteorological parameters and phenomena
Periodic calibration with laboratory standards
Data reporting
Aerosols
Equipment -1 each per station.
1.
Sky Radiometer (weather proof) – for column properties like particle size
distribution, optical depth, phase function and single scattering albedo.
2.
7 stage Size segregated cascade high volume sampler+ collection substrates.
3.
Ion Chromatograph for chemical analyses and other laboratory equipment.
4.
Aethelometer for Black Carbon measurements.
Operations
Sky radiometer has a suntracking mode of automated observations, logging the data
online and retrieving parameters in off line mode.
Cascade samplers will sample for 24 HR periods with twice–a–week protocol.
Chemical analyses all 7x2 =14 filter samples/ week, after ionic extraction.
Reporting of meteorological parameters and phenomena.
Data reporting.
Ozone
Equipment
Ozone/Radiosonde ground equipment.
Balloons and other consumables.
Operations
Sonde flights to be taken fortnightly on routine basis and 5 additional per year.
Normalise the height integrated content with column ozone values.
Reporting of meteorological parameters and phenomena.
Data reporting.
45
Implementation:
Respective meteorological agencies shall need to support this programme by providing
infrastructure. They will need to select sites and provide necessary infrastructure for the
laboratories at respective sites.
Trained staff will have to be identified and deployed for the projects.
Specifications need to be drawn in accordance with WMO norms. After the equipment
has been procured, the installation and commissioning would be done under the
guidance of GCOS experts
Expected Outcomes:
The GHG programme will generate authentic values of ambient atmospheric trace
species concentrations for the first time, from this region. It will form a data resource for
assessing trends in future. The information will help to detect climate and environmental
impacts of many of the anthropogenic pollutants. This information can be used by
countries to manage their environments in a better way. They can also make substantial
improvements to their National Communications to the UNFCCC, by incorporating this
information. The Expert Centre that will be created under this programme will serve
individual national interests on a long term basis.
Risk and Sustainability:
The programme will be sustainable through the efforts of the respective National
Meteorological Services, because the WMO expert guidance is naturally available to
them. The programme may, however, slip into mediocrity if appropriately trained and
motivated persons are not deployed to man it. In that respect, WMO support in training
and, later, the support of this regional programme from the Expert Centre will enhance
its sustainability. Individual member countries must consider this as a permanent
activity, like other meteorological programmes as that will ensure continuity.
Indicative Budget:
Equipment
Unit Cost (US$)
Online CO2 analyser (2 )
(with sampling accessories/ data processing)
Online CH4, N2O analysers (2)
Sky radiometers (5)
Athelometers (5)
Cascade Samplers (5)
Ozone (3)
Training
12 persons ( 2x2 GHG, 5x1 Aerosol, 3x1 Ozone)
TOTAL
Total cost (US$)
250,000
300,000
50,000
50,000
6,000
8,000
500,000
600,000
250,000
250,000
30,000
24,000
2,000
24,000
1,678,000
(Author: Dr. B. Mukhopadhyay, Director EMRC, India Meteorological Department, New
Delhi-110003, India)
46
APPENDIX P-3
Establishing an Indian Ocean observing system for Climate - CLIVAR/GOOS
Indian Ocean Panel Report on Plans for Sustained Observations for Climate
[Note: Below, the Indian Ocean Panel reports on its plans for undertaking
sustained ocean observations for climate. Although the report is not a project in
the sense of the other projects in this Action Plan, the region fully supports and
endorses the activities of the Panel.]
1. Introduction and principles:
Of the three major oceans – Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian – the Indian is the only one that
is not open to the North and the South Polar regions. This is a consequence of the
presence of the Asian landmass restricting the Indian Ocean to south of about 25°N.
The Indian Ocean is also the only ocean with a low latitude opening in its eastern
boundary. The unique geography has important implications to the circulation-physics of
the ocean, and consequently to the climate of the region and to biogeochemistry of the
ocean. The implications impart many unique features to the ocean. It cannot export
heat-gain in the tropics to the higher northern latitudes, as the Pacific and Atlantic do in
western boundary currents. Also, it gains additional heat flowing through Indonesia from
the tropical Pacific. The Indian Ocean consequently has a unique system of threedimensional currents and interactions with the atmosphere that redistribute heat to keep
the ocean approximately in a long-term thermal equilibrium. The Indian Ocean interacts
strongly with the surrounding landmasses resulting in the well-known Monsoons, or
seasonal cycle, of Asia, Africa and Australia. Short-term imbalances and irregularity in
oceanic heat storage give the climate system a tendency to vary energetically at a broad
range of time scales from a few weeks (sub-seasonal variability) to years and decades.
This variability is documented and at least partially understood in the atmosphere due to
the long-standing collection of weather data. Sustained in situ data from the ocean
however are scarce, and an understanding of the role of ocean dynamics in the regional
climate system is consequently limited. This report provides a brief review the scientific
issues and questions concerned with regional ocean-atmosphere interaction, and an
overview of sustained, in situ oceanic observations to address these issues.
From the outset, we recognize the following principles:
•
•
•
Implementing basin wide observations is too large a task for any one nation or
agency to accomplish alone. A multi-national approach is required. Agreement to
use available national resources in a coordinated and cost-effective way is an
essential part of achieving full implementation.
Data should be distributed openly in a timely manner. There is a preference for
communication of data in real time to make it available at climate analysis and
prediction centers. Data management will follow the guidelines and policies of the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and CLIVAR.
Satellite observations of oceanic surface properties provide a framework for the
observing system. The in situ observations are complementary and provide
subsurface information that complements and enhances satellite data. While this
document is concerned with in situ observations, we note that the research
issues identified in Part 1 cannot be resolved without satellite data and we
47
•
•
strongly recommend continued measurement of satellite SST, sea level, wind
and ocean color.
Development requires close coordination between the research- and operational
communities. Some of the observations in this plan have already been partially
implemented by operational programmes in GCOS and GOOS, for example the
ship-of-opportunity expendable bathythermograph programme and surface
drifters. Full implementation requires close coordination with the Ocean
Observation Panel for Climate (OOPC), the CLIVAR Global Synthesis of
Observations Panel (GSOP), the International Argo Science Team (IAST) and
the Joint Committee for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM).
An integrated observing system is required to address the diversity of time and
space scales of climate-relevant variability.
The principle of open and timely sharing of data in the Indian Ocean requires some
discussion. The Indian Ocean rim is a region with considerable potential for political
instability and conflict. It is also a region where full agreement on the modes of access to
exclusive economic zones has not been reached. The political realities have historically
had an impact on data sharing. Never the less, the threat to countries in the region from
natural hazards is recognized now, and may lead to rapid improvement. The global Argo
programme and the TAO programme in the Pacific will serve as examples of data
management for development of the Indian Ocean observing system. Countries and
research groups participating in Argo and TAO have agreed to the open exchange of
data. This applies equally to the real-time (GTS and ftp) data stream (over 90% available
within 24 hrs) and to delayed mode data. It is recommended that these standards of
timeliness and openness set by Argo and TAO be applied to all Indian Ocean
observations
2. Research Issues
The Indian Ocean research issues that will be addressed by a sustained in situ
observing system were initially identified in the CLIVAR Research Plan sections G2 and
G4 prepared in 1997 (http://www.clivar.org/publications/wg_reports/index.htm ). The
issues and science-drivers have been updated in a report of the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian
Ocean Panel (IOP) entitled Understanding the Role of the Indian Ocean in the Climate
System—Implementation Plan for Sustained Observations. For this region we need
improved description, understanding, modeling and ability to predict
• Seasonal monsoon variability in the ocean
• Intra-seasonal disturbances and their interactions with the upper ocean
• The Indian Ocean Zonal Dipole Mode and its interaction with El Nino Southern
Oscillation
• Decadal variability and warming trends
• Climate impacts from the extra-tropical South Indian Ocean, and
• Unique features of ocean circulation (Indonesian throughflow, shallow and deep
overturning cells) that affect transport and storage of heat.
The further details are beyond the scope of this report, and interested parties are
referred to the full IOP Report.
Besides climate, operational oceanography and programmes developing a capability for
ocean state estimation (e.g. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
48
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/GODAE/ ) also require in situ data, particularly data
on currents at a daily time scale. The uses of operational products range from
initialization of coupled climate-models, which require monthly or longer averaged fields,
to maritime safety, fisheries and management of the marine environment which require
daily, synoptic fields. With these applications in mind, all of the dominant space and time
scales of variability need to be observed. For the Indian Ocean the fast, upper ocean
variability associated with intra-seasonal disturbances is a challenge that has to be
addressed by the observing system.
3. Integrated observing system
An overview of the integrated observing system recommended for the Indian Ocean is in
Figure 1. It includes basin-scale observations including fixed moorings, Argo floats, XBT
lines, surface drifters and tide gauges. Detailed plans for each type of observations are
given in the IOP Report. The Report recommends full implementation of all the
elements. Multi-year mooring systems in some boundary regions have been established
including the Arabian Sea (ASEA), the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the Indonesian
Throughflow (ITF) and the deep equatorial currents ( ). Boundary monitoring of the
western boundary currents (WBC) is not yet planned.
Figure 1. Sustained, integrated observing system for climate
49
The recent tsunami in Asia has highlighted the importance of establishing a multi-hazard
warning system for the region. The major marine hazards for nations on the Indian
Ocean Rim are tsunami, storm surge, tropical cyclones, drought and coastal flooding.
Attempts to predict and mitigate the impact of all of these hazards are critically
dependent on ocean monitoring that provides essential in situ data assessing risk and
issuing warnings. This proposal is concerned with establishing mooring sites equipped
with a multi-hazard instrumentation package. Collecting all natural hazard data at each
site is an economical approach that will continuously be useful and beneficial to people
of the region, because it addresses a range of hazards that regularly occur. The highest
cost for any open ocean mooring array is the cost of ship time. The multi-hazard
approach will be particularly cost effective in ship time. The instrumentation package will
include bottom pressure sensors to confirm the existence of predicted tsunamis and
measure their amplitude, as well as a suite of upper ocean and weather measurements
required for weather and climate prediction.
4. Supporting material
CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array
1. Introduction
Deep ocean mooring programmes have been successfully developed in the tropical
Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during TOGA and CLIVAR in support of seasonal to
interannual and longer time scale climate studies. The TAO/TRITON array in the
Pacific, maintained by the US (NOAA) and Japan (JAMSTEC), provides data in real-time
for improved description, understanding, and prediction of El Niño and La Niña, which
represent the strongest year-to-year climate fluctuation on the planet. The PIRATA
array, supported by the US (NOAA), France (IRD), and Brazil (DHN and INPE), provides
real-time data for improved description, understanding, and prediction of tropical Atlantic
climate variability related to Atlantic warm events and development of the interhemispheric SST gradients. These variations significantly affect rainfall in Northeast
Brazil and western Africa, and SST variations in the northern tropical Atlantic impact on
hurricane formation and intensity.
Deep ocean mooring programmes have also been implemented in the Indian Ocean in
recent years as part of WOCE, JGOFS, CLIVAR, and various national programmes.
However, these efforts have been either short-lived or regional in scope. What is
required to systematically address the scientific issues outlined earlier in this document,
however, is a coordinated, multi-national, basin scale sustained mooring array, as exists
in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Indian Ocean array is particularly important to
understand and model basin-scale air-sea interaction at the intra-seasonal time-scale, a
key to useful prediction of seasonal monsoon impacts.
The CLIVAR/IOC Indian Ocean Panel has outlined a strategy to implement a moored
buoy array for the Indian Ocean in support of climate studies. The focus is on the open
ocean north of 30°S. The moored buoy array will be designed and implemented
according to the following principles:
a. Design of the array will build on the experience gained in developing
previous and ongoing moored buoy programmes in the Indian Ocean and
50
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
on the experience gained during TOGA and CLIVAR in designing and
implementing TAO/TRITON and PIRATA;
The array will focus on those aspects of ocean dynamics, air-sea
interaction, and climate variability that high temporal resolution,
multivariate moored time series measurements are uniquely suited to
address;
The array will complement other components (satellite, in situ) of the
Indian Ocean Observing System;
The array will be long term and sustained;
Implementation will rely on multi-national contributions;
Real-time data transmission will be a high priority in order to support
operational climate analyses and forecasts;
Data will be freely and openly exchanged via the GTS and the WWW.
2. Array Design
2.1 Variables
Moorings are capable of measuring a number of the key variables needed for describing,
understanding, and predicting large scale ocean dynamics, ocean-atmosphere
interactions and the Indian Ocean’s role in global and regional climate. Marine
meteorological variables include those needed to characterize fluxes of momentum, heat
and fresh water across the air-sea interface, namely surface winds, SST, air
temperature, relative humidity, downwelling short- and long-wave radiation, barometric
pressure, and rain rate. Physical oceanographic variables include upper ocean
temperatures, salinity, and horizontal currents. The moorings can also support sensors
to measure CO2 concentrations in air and seawater, nutrients, bio-optical properties, and
ocean acoustics.
2.2 Geographic coverage and horizontal resolution
The geographic scope of the array is intended to cover the major regions of oceanatmosphere interaction in the tropical Indian Ocean, namely the Arabian Sea, the Bay of
Bengal, the equatorial waveguide where wind-forced intra-seasonal and semi-annual
current variability is prominent, the eastern and western index regions of the Indian
Ocean SST dipole mode, the thermocline ridge between 5°-12°S where wind-induced
upwelling and Rossby waves in the thermocline affect SST, and the southwestern
tropical Indian ocean where ocean dynamics and air-sea interaction affect cyclone
formation. The bulk of the array is concentrated between 15°N-16°S, 55°E-90°E.
51
Flux reference moorings are also included in the array in several key climatologically
distinct regions. These moorings will measure the full suite of variables needed to
determine surface turbulent and radiative fluxes, and storage of momentum, heat, and
fresh water in the mixed layer. The flux reference sites will contribute to the International
OceanSITES programme (http://www.oceansites.org/OceanSITES/index.html).
Direct velocity measurements are required along the equator where geostrophy breaks
down and where currents in the upper ocean undergo rapid time variations. Subsurface
ADCP moorings along the equator will address this requirement. An additional
subsurface ADCP mooring off the coast of Java will monitor the Java upwelling zone
where the SST dipole first develops. The Java mooring is located near the frequently
repeated XBT line IX1, used in the past to study Indonesian throughflow, upwelling and
SST in the eastern pole of the dipole.
2.3 Vertical sampling
Standard (i.e. non flux reference site) moorings need to resolve the basic vertical
structure of temperature variability in the mixed layer and thermocline down to at least
500 m. Thus, a vertical array of temperature sensors is needed at 1 m. 10 m, 20 m, 40
m, 60 m, 80 m, 100 m, 120 m, 140 m, 200 m, 300 m, 500 m. The sensor at 1 m will
provide a measure of bulk SST. This vertical array is similar to that of moorings
deployed in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific, but with a 10 m sensor to provide
additional resolution in the mixed layer.
52
A minimal array of conductivity (salinity) sensors at 1 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m, 100 m is thus
required. All other surface moorings should measure velocity from at least one depth in
the surface mixed layer, preferably at 10 m. Velocity will be measured from surface
moorings at discrete depths as well as from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP)
moorings. Upward looking ADCP moorings should be deployed so as to measure
velocity variability in the upper 200 m with a vertical resolution of 10 m or higher.
2.4 Temporal sampling
The transmission of data to shore in real-time is required for monitoring evolving climatic
conditions, oceanic and atmospheric model data assimilation and analyses, weather,
climate, and ocean forecasting, and forecast verification. Real-time transmission also
allows for accelerated scientific analysis of the observations and provides backup in
case moorings are lost. Real-time data should be disseminated as rapidly and as widely
possible through the GTS and the WWW.
3. Conclusion
The array when fully implemented will consist of 38 surface moorings, 9 of which will be
enhanced for surface flux and related oceanographic measurements. In addition, the
array will include 5 ADCP mooring sites concentrated along the equator and the coast of
Java. This configuration is deemed the minimal array necessary to meet CLIVAR and
GOOS objectives for sustained moored measurements.
(Author: CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel and collaborators)
53
APPENDIX P-4
Enhancing the Availability and Use of Hydrological Data
1. Background:
The hydrological data in the South and Southwest Asian has been recorded by the
National Hydrological Services of the countries in the region. The quality and availability
of data, however, needs to be improved for flood forecasting, research, environmental
requirements, drought mitigation, water resource management for socioeconomic
development and better use and conservation of water resources in the region. At
present the region’s hydrological network and system for data collection requires
upgrading and enhancement, both in terms of reception and transmission.
The hydrological data collection system in the region varies from country to country,
depending upon the economic condition of the country. Data collection is mainly done by
meteorological or hydrological institutions in the respective countries. On national,
regional and global levels, efforts have been made by WMO programmes to strengthen
National Hydrological Services through WHYCOS and HYCOS programmes. Though
the National Hydrological Services have been strengthened to some extent through
these programmes, the availability of data in the region is not up to the mark from a
global perspective. In consequence, the implementation of this project is an important
input to the GCOS (WMO) programmes.
2. Objective
The main objective of the project is to make the hydrological data of the region available
globally. Strategies have been drawn up to ensure the operation of effective, cost
effective and sustainable hydrological data collection networks in individual countries
and at regional level. In addition to the main objective, the specific objectives of the
project are as follows:
a) Assessment of the existing hydrological data collection and transmission network
system in the countries of the region.
b) Analyze the deficiencies and loopholes in the existing data collection and
transmission system in each National Hydrological Service.
c) Prepare a comprehensive list of the hydrological stations for each member
country and a summary of river basins of National Hydrological Service.
d) To improve the quality of the hydrological data by capacity building and
upgrading instruments, modes of transmission and data centers of each National
Hydrological Service.
e) Establishment of a national hydrological data center at the National Hydrological
Service of each member country.
f) Selection of mode of data communication at national, regional and global levels.
g) Training programme for the enhancement of National Hydrological Service
manpower in communication, data collection and transmission and data
management.
h) To develop a mechanism of exchange of data for across boundary river basins.
j) Data management for flood and drought mitigation.
k) Providing data for the regional hydrological forecasting center which will be
established in I. R. of Iran
54
3. Location:
The project will be implemented in the 17 countries of South and Southwest Asia.
4. Duration:
The duration of the project will be five years.
5. Project Design:
The project will be implemented in three phases, mainly at the regional level with inputs
from national level.
5.1 Regional Steering Committee
The regional steering committee will be the highest executive body of the project.
Its role will be to ensure project coherence and to set project policy, strategy and
implementation. The committee will also approve the working plans and budget.
The committee will consist of representatives of each member country (focal
point), external support agencies, WMO, GCOS and Project Regional Centre
officials.
5.2 Project Management/Implementation Unit
The Project Regional Center (PRC) will be the implementing agency and will be
established in Pakistan. It will act as a focal point to coordinate the project
activities implemented within the participating countries. It will foster regional
cooperation in sharing basin-wide hydrological data and provide a forum for
exchange of technical experts. It will develop a Web site for the exchange of
data and monitor the quality and quantity of data. Three coordinators will help the
management unit; the I. R. of Iran will be the coordinator of West Asia.
5.3 National Level:
A focal person will be selected through the recommendation of the WMO
Hydrological Experts of each NHS. The focal point will be responsible for the
implementation of the project at national level.
5.4 Regional Level:
A Project Management Team (PMT) will be established, comprising a Project
Coordinator along with a small team of experts covering the entire spectrum of
data collection, transmission, processing and database management.
Phase 1
6. Implementation (Duration 2 Years) Assessment of the existing hydrological data
collection system of each National Hydrological Service.
55
a) Selection of national hydrological sites after consultation and approval from
Regional Countries. Regional countries will identify the stations (at least two in
phase 1).
b) Development of a questionnaire for the assessment of the present data collection
and transmission system of each country.
c) Establishment of Project Regional Centre in Pakistan.
d) Visit of Project Director and Coordinator to each country to assess the instrument
capability and data collection and transmission system and commence
development of a strategy for upgrading the existing system.
e) Conference for South Asian countries to endorse the initial outcomes and
selection of pilot stations and basins.
f) Conference for Southwest Asian countries to endorse the initial outcomes,
instrumentation and selection of pilot stations and basins.
7 Hydrological Forecasting Center in the Islamic Republic of Iran
The Hydrological Forecasting Center in the Islamic Republic of Iran, after establishment,
will receive data from hydrological stations from country networks in South and
Southwest Asia on the completion of Phase 1. However, the pattern of data reception
(i.e., the type and parameters of hydrological data, the mode of communication, its
compatibility for exchange of data to other countries) will need to be coordinated through
the national focal points, i.e., the Hydrological Advisors of the countries in the region.
8. Indicative Budget (Phase 1, Duration 2 Years)
S.No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Activity
Establishment of Project Centre
Traveling expenses in each NHS
Conference/workshops (two)
Cost of man months at project center
Office stationary/postage etc
Miscellaneous expenses
Total
Amount in US$
20,000
80,000
60,000
30,000
10,000
10,000
210,000
9. Expected Outcomes:
• Availability of improved hydrological observations at the national level in
countries of the region.
• Capacity building of the National Hydrological Services in acquisition and
transmission of the hydrological data.
• Availability of historical hydrological data for the region, for policy and decisionmaking, research and the general public.
10. Risk and Sustainability
The risk to the project is minimal. The project will be sustained if the member countries
provide adequate budget from their own resources for maintenance and replacement of
the equipment after completion of the project. Linking to some other mega projects of
WMO like WHYCOS will enhance the sustainability of the project.
56
Phase 2
11.
Implementation (Duration 1½ Years) (Upgrading the hydrological data
acquisition and transmission system in each member country)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Installation of server and development of regional database for the collection of
data from member countries and connectivity of this database with Web site for
the exchange of data among the member countries.
Procurement of hydrological instruments and installation of communication
system for each country, in the light of recommendations of Phase 1.
Installation of procured instruments in each National Hydrological Service.
Establishment of a hydrological data center in each member country.
Training programme for manpower involved in data acquisition and transmission.
Steering committee meetings.
12. Indicative Budget (Phase 2)
S.No. Activity
Description
Amount in US$
Operational national hydrological 34 PCs & accessories 68,000
1.
database (hardware, software & @2000 per pc
software @1000$ per 34,000
training)
copy
Training of 34 persons, 102,000
two
per
country
@3000$ per person
2.
Setting up of regional 20,000
database equipment &
installation
3.
Regional Database System
4.
All NHS linked through electronic Establishment of
E-mail/internet
communication
@1200$ per country
5.
200,000
NHS staff, equipment, installation Hydrological
equipment,
data
etc.
transmission,
equipment installation
& maintenance
6.
Replacement
of
broken
damaged equipment
7.
8.
9.
Working man months at RCM
Steering committee meeting
Misc. expenses
80,000
25,000
10,000
Total:
659,400
&
20,400
100,000
57
13. Expected Outcomes:
•
•
•
An operational hydrological database at the national and regional level.
Improved hydrological station network in the region.
All the National Hydrological Services in the region will be linked together through
a state-of-the-art hydrological data observation and communication system.
Phase 3
14. Implementation (Duration 1½ Years) (Monitoring & implementation of system)
•
•
•
•
•
Monitoring the data transmission from each country to the Project Regional
Centre.
Implementation of system developed through Phase I and II in all member
countries.
Replacement of broken/damaged equipment at pilot stations in the region.
Project wrap-up conference
Publication of project report
15. Indicative Budget Phase 3
for 90,000
1.
Assured funds for field monitoring Budget provision
field operations
and operation cost
2.
Working man months at RCM
60,000
3.
Conference expenses
40,000
4.
Publications
30,000
5.
Misc.
10,000
Total
230,000
16. Expected Outcomes:
•
•
•
•
The project can be utilized for locating new water resources and contributing
more towards hydroelectric power generation.
Minimization of flood damages and enhancement of the country’s economy
through better irrigation and agriculture.
It will also help poverty alleviation and the economic development of the
countries of the region.
Hydrological data management will help in improving flood mitigation for reducing
loss of property and lives of the people.
17. Risk and Sustainability
The risk to the project is very minimal. The project will be sustained if after completion of
the project the member countries provide adequate budget from their own resources for
maintenance and replacement of the equipment. Linking to some other megaprojects of
WMO, like WHYCOS, will enhance the sustainability of the project.
58
Indicative Budget for Whole Project
Phase 1 (Duration 2 Years)
S.No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Activity
Establishment of Project Centre
Traveling expenses in each NHS
Conference/workshops (two)
Cost of man months at project center
Office stationary/postage etc
Miscellaneous expenses
Total
Amount in US$
20,000
80,000
60,000
30,000
10,000
10,000
210,000
Phase 2 (Duration 1 ½ Years)
S.No. Activity
Description
Amount in US$
Operational national hydrological 34 PCs & accessories 68,000
1.
database (hardware, software & @2000 per pc
software @1000$ per 34,000
training)
copy
Training of 34 persons, 102,000
two
per
country
@3000$ per person
2.
Setting up of regional 20,000
database equipment &
installation
3.
Regional Database System
4.
All NHS linked through electronic Establishment of E- 20,400
mail/internet @1200$
communication
per country
5.
200,000
NHS staff, equipment, installation Hydrological
equipment,
data
etc
transmission,
equipment installation
& maintenance
6.
Replacement
of
broken
damaged equipment
7.
Working man months at RCM
80,000
8.
Steering committee meeting
25,000
9.
Misc. expenses
10,000
Total:
659,400
&
100,000
59
Phase 3 (Duration 1 ½ Years)
for 90,000
1.
Assured funds for field monitoring Budget provision
field operations
and operation cost
2.
Working man months at RCM
60,000
3.
Conference expenses
40,000
4.
Publications
30,000
5.
Misc.
10,000
Total
230,000
Grand total of the project
US$ 1,099,400
60
PROJECT EXECUTION
Donor Agencies
Regional Steering Committee
Website hosting at
Project Regional Centre
(Pakistan Met.
Department, Flood
Forecasting Division,
Lahore Pakistan)
Project Management /
Implementation Unit
Project Director
Project Coordinator
Hydrological Data Collection
& Processing Expert
Technical Expert
(Hydrology)
Focal Point of Member
Country
Transmission of Hydrological Data from National
Hydrological Services of member countries of
South & Southwest Asia
Reception of Hydrological Data at
Project Regional Centre
APPENDIX A-5
(Author: Dr. Shaukat Ali Awan, Chief Meteorologist, Flood Forecasting Division, 46-Jail
Road, Lahore – 54000, Pakistan)
61
APPENDIX P-5
Monitoring Glaciers for Water Resources in South and Southwest Asia
PART 1: PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Background:
Study of modern glaciers leads us to a greater understanding of our climate system,
climate change, the formation of ice ages, and effects of global warming. Through longterm monitoring of the world’s glaciers we are able to build a base of historical data,
detect climate change and predict and avoid hazards to human communities living in
proximity of glaciers and depending on their meltwaters. In south Asia (India, Pakistan,
Nepal, Bhutan) and Southwest Asia (Islamic Republic of Iran) cryosphere (snow, glacier)
provide up to 80 % of the lowland dry-season flows of the Indus, Ganges and
Brahamputra rivers through their vast irrigation networks and 60 % in the Islamic
Republic of Iran respectively.
While deglaciation is considered to be the worldwide problem, there is particular concern
at the alarming rate of retreat of Himalayan glaciers and of glaciers in the Islamic
Republic of Iran. It is predicted that glaciers will severely retreat within 40 years as a
result of global warming and that the discharge of Himalayan rivers and of streams from
the five glacier zones in Iran will eventually diminish, resulting in widespread water
shortages. Cryospheric retreat is likely to lead to a temporary increase in river flows
followed by a reduction but the quantities, timing and consequences are unknown.
Under climate change, Himalayan glaciers are more likely to be affected by changes in
the synoptic weather patterns that control the timing, the progression and the intensity of
the moisture carried by the summer monsoon and by the winter westerlies. Depending
on their geographical situation, the Himalayan glaciers are under the dominant influence
of one or the other of these two principal regional climatic phenomena, and sometimes
of both. Developing energy balance monitoring at the glacier surface will identify the
main processes involved in the ablation of the cryosphere. Hence, a regional Glacier
Monitoring Network (RGMN) of benchmark glaciers in South and Southwest Asia is
essential to assess seasonal and long-term water resources in snow and glacier fed
rivers. Although the glaciers can be monitored in variety of ways, we propose to network
glaciers in South Asia and conduct in-situ mass balance measurements, space-borne
image system and hydrological (precipitation, discharge) studies. Similarly, a network of
glaciers will be established in at least three glacier zones in the Islamic Republic of Iran
(Southwest Asia), namely in the Takht-Soleyman in Mazandaran province, glaciers
located around Damavand in Tehran province and Zard-Kuh zone in Chahar mahal
province, to cover various the climatic regions.
Objective:
This project aims to asses the seasonal and long-term water resources in snow and
glacier fed streams and rivers in South and Southwest Asia and will seek to determine
strategies for coping with climate change induced deglaciation on the livelihood of the
people in the region. A glaciological programme will be undertaken on benchmark
glaciers in the countries of South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan) and Southwest
Asia (Islamic Republic of Iran). The project will involve 1) in situ mass balance
62
measurements, and 2) hydrological studies. Mass balance measurement data from all
the benchmark glaciers will, on a long-term basis, be included in the World Glacier
Monitoring Service network, University of Zurich, Switzerland.
Location:
During the first field campaign, identified benchmark glaciers in EACH COUNTRY (in
India the glacier is already identified and being monitored since 2002) should be
equipped for mass-balance determination (i.e. with ablation stakes, pits in accumulation
and establishment of an automatic weather station at a safe location in the center of the
glacier). The locations of the stakes and other topographical features should be marked
by using differential GPS. Two annual field campaigns should be planned - the first in
May-June, after the winter period, and second in September-October.
In order to calculate the hydrological balance, the following devices should be installed:
- Cumulative precipitation gauges (to record snowfall) around the glacier and at
strategic points in the valley; and
- Two hydrological stations, one for measuring the outflow from the benchmark
glacier
- and the other controlling the discharge of the valley downstream.
Duration:
Three field seasons (THREE YEARS).
Project Design:
-
Select a benchmark glacier with attributes described in the “A manual for
monitoring the mass balance of mountain glacier” by G. Kaser A. Fountain and
P. Jansson (IHP-VI-Technical Documents in Hydrology-No.59 UNESCO, Paris.
2003) with standard monitoring protocol.
-
Install a network of stakes, by using a steam drill, on all sides of the glacier, for
mass balance studies. Undertake repeated surveys of stakes’ positions by
using DGPS (differential global positioning system) to determine ice velocity,
specific and annual mass balance. The elevation of the transient line at the end
of melt season can be seen by using satellite imagery, like ASTER, IRS or
SPOT.
-
Install hydrometric stations at the outlets of the glacier and also for the larger
catchments. These will provide direct information on water resources
availability for the downstream population and also for assessment of the
potential risk in the event of glacier lake outburst floods. In addition to
hydrological stations, several cumulative precipitation gauges (intercepting the
snowfalls and the rainfalls) should be installed around the glacier and also at a
few strategic points in the valley.
-
Install automatic weather stations both on the ablation region of the glacier and
in the valley downstream of the glacier snout, for comprehensive climate data
sets.
63
-
Training workshops will be conducted at the beginning and during project
period for the evaluation of the mass-balance measurements.
Implementation:
An identified nodal agency in each participating country (in India it is HIGH ICE) will
implement the project. However, the results and progress reports will be coordinated by
the chief project coordinator, Professor Syed Iqbal Hasnain, Chairman, High Ice, India.
Expected Outcomes:
Glaciers react in a complex manner to climatic variations and understanding their
changes with changing climate is vital for future water policy and water management. It
is necessary to study the mass exchange and growth/shrinkage of glaciers to
understand and interpret these different aspects. The glacier-climate-hydrology
interactions in the South and Southwest Asian mountains are of great interest for both
global and regional purposes. A network of well-chosen and carefully measured glaciers
in South Southwest Asia is important to establish for climate and water related studies.
A glacier mass balance network is of manifold benefit because it provides:
-
Information on glacier behaviour on studied sites.
-
Information on climate fluctuations on the studied sites
-
Results defining the most important climatic processes controlling glacier
growth and shrinkage.
-
Information on glacier response to climatic fluctuations on a local, regional, or
global scale.
-
A way to estimate the behaviour of the non-monitored glaciers in the region.
Many of these other glaciers are important but are otherwise impossible to
monitor.
-
Data defining the hydrological impact of glaciers on local and regional
streamflow.
Risk and Sustainability:
A key aspect for the success of this project is in identifying the right kind of nodal agency
in each country that has the required skill and capabilities to implement the project.
Nevertheless, the field training in monitoring various parameters for quality work could
be imparted on the Indian benchmark glacier that has been in operation since 2002. The
proposed workshop in the second year will bring all the participating countries together
at one location to enable them to discuss two years results and apply corrections, if
required. However, the final workshop will assess the sustainability of the project for
further extension as the impact of climate change trends on glaciers could be deciphered
on long-term basis.
64
PART II - TIME SCHEDULE
A.
Duration of the project:
Three years
B. The approximate number of man-months in a year to be devoted to this project
by each of the countries:
Indian Principal Investigator
Man- months
I yr
II yr
8
6
III yr
8
Pakistan Principal Investigator
6
6
8
Nepal Principal Investigator
6
6
8
Bhutan Principal Investigator
6
6
8
Islamic Republic of Iran Principal 6
Investigator
6
8
65
C. Details of phases in which the project will be carried out, with duration of each
phase.
2006
2007
2008
J F M A M J J A S O NDJ F M A M J J A S ON DJ F M A M J J A S ON D
1.Purchase
equipment.
2.Installation
of equipment.
3.Training
4.
Mass
Balance 1
5.
Hydrological
Measurement
1
6.
Mass
Balance 2
7.
Hydrological
Measurement
2
8.
Mass
Balance 3
9.
Hydrological
Measurement
3
1.
Final
workshop
(Review)
66
PART III – BUDGET ESTIMATE
A. Manpower to be hired by India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and the Islamic Republic of
Iran
Designation
Number
Guides,
Cook, porters, T.A.& D.A for As
scientists etc.
required
India,
Pakistan,
Nepal,
Bhutan and Iran
Manpower for hydrological
recorders (water level and rain Three
gauges) installationIndia,
Pakistan,
Bhutan and Iran
Nepal,
Total for Year
310
TOTAL MANPOWER BUDGET
1st Year
(US $)
2nd Year
(US $)
3rd Year
(US $)
10,000.00 for 10,000.00 for 10,000.00 for
each country
each country
each country
50,000.00
50,000.00
50,000.00
for 5000.00
for
5000.00
for 5000.00
each country
each country
each country
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
75,000.00
75,000.00
75,000.00
US $
225, 000.00
67
B. Recurring Expenses of the each participant’s countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal,
Bhutan and Islamic Republic of Iran)
Details
321.
322.
Cost of consumable
Materials
Stakes, gas, small devices
2nd Year
3rd Year
(US $)
(US $)
6,000.00
for 4,000.00 for
each country
each country
India,
Pakistan,
Nepal, 25,000.00
30,000.00
20,000.00
Bhutan and Iran
for 10,000.00 for
Cost of project related
8,000.00 for 8,000.00
each country
each country
local travel within country
each country
Car renting and transportation
India,
Pakistan,
Bhutan and Iran
323.
1st Year
(US $)
5,000.00 for
each country
Nepal, 40,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
Any other miscellaneous
5,000.00 for 4,000.00
for 4,000.00 for
Construction of a
each country
each country
each country
permanent rope bridge over
the River
India,
Pakistan,
Bhutan and Iran
Nepal, 25,000.00
20,000.00
20,000.00
90,000.0
90,000.0
324.
Total for Year
90,000.00
320. Total budget on recurring expenses for the
project duration
US$270, 000.00
68
C. Details of permanent (non-recurring) equipment proposed to be purchased for
each participating country
S.No
Item
In US $
1. *
Steam Ice drill
22,000.00
for For installing the stakes. It has a capacity
each
country to drill up to 12 m (German Made)
2.
For Pakistan and
Islamic Republic of
Iran
DGPS equipment
3.
4.
5.
6.
Total
Detailed Justification
44,000.00
8,000.00
for Topographical Characterization of the
Glaciers- mass balance
each country
India,
Pakistan,
Nepal, Bhutan and 40,000.00
Iran
Air pressure water
12,000.00
for Water flow measurements
level recorder (Ott
each country
Orpheus)
India,
Pakistan, 60,000.00
Nepal, Bhutan and
Iran
Portable weather
9,500.00
for Energy balance measurements
Station
each country
India,
Pakistan, 47,500.00
Nepal, Bhutan and
Iran
Rain gauges
3,000.00
for Precipitation measurements
each country
India,
Pakistan,
Nepal, Bhutan and 15,000.00
Iran
3,000.00
for Computing mass balance
Satellite imagery
imagery
each country
India,
Pakistan,
Nepal, Bhutan and 15,000.00
Iran
by
using
221,500.00
*(India, Nepal and Bhutan were provided with steam drill machines in 2002, under a
UNESCO grant)
69
D. Grand Total for the Project:
Part III
In US $
A
225, 000.00
B
270, 000.00
C
221, 500.00
Grand Total
716, 500.0
(Author: Prof. Syed Iqbal Hasnain, Vice-Chancellor, Calicut University, Mallapuram –
673635, Kerala, India)
70
APPENDIX P– 6
FLUXNET – South and Southwest Asia
Introduction
Over the last 150 years, human activities have significantly altered the global carbon
cycle. These alterations have had many consequences, but the most significant has
been a persistent and rapid rise in the level of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the
atmosphere. Evidence is mounting that these changes are altering the earth's climate.
Two major reservoirs, the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere, dominate the
contemporary global carbon cycle (Figure1).
Involvement of both anthropogenic and natural processes in emission of CO2 to the
atmosphere and removal from it, and the effect of climate change on those mechanisms,
have made full understanding of the carbon cycle vital to a better understanding of
climate change. Determining the role of the terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon
cycle is a particularly difficult problem because of the high degree of spatial
heterogeneity in the sinks and sources, and the extent to which humans have modified
and continue to modify the landscape. The FLUXNET project provides the opportunity
to examine the role that major ecosystems play in the global carbon cycle. The network
will examine how climate variability, management practices, and natural disturbances
influence the carbon cycle in different ecosystems. It will also be useful in examining
71
how changes in the carbon pools in living biomass and different type of soils might help
in the management of GHGs, through the short-term sequestration of atmospheric CO2.
FLUXNET will, therefore, contribute valuable scientific information to policy development
with respect to greenhouse gas management and international negotiations.
Objectives
The main objectives of introducing South and Southwest Asia FLUXNET are to:
-
Improve our understanding of the carbon cycle and provide scientists with
substantive data on the Carbon cycle and GHG emissions in order to reduce
uncertainties in predicting their fluxes from/to different ecosystems in the
region. Some of the key components of the carbon cycle for better
understanding its dynamics are atmospheric carbon dioxide, carbon on the
land, and exchange between the atmosphere and the land.
-
Fill the gap that exists in the FLUXNET network’s global coverage.
Other objectives are:
1) Making continuous measurements of CO2, water, and sensible heat fluxes, and other
GHGs, for mature and disturbed forests, other natural ecosystems and agricultural
lands.
2) Examining the relationship between the inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes and
climate.
3) Analyzing the contributions of different ecosystem components to the net flux,
particularly gross ecosystem production, total ecosystem respiration, and soil respiration
(microbes and roots).
4) Exploring the relationship between net primary productivity and net ecosystem
productivity.
5) Evaluate ecosystem and land surface climate models.
6) Characterizing the relationships between climate variables (e.g., mean monthly
temperature) and net ecosystem productivity on both the disturbed and undisturbed
sites.
7) Evaluating the relationship between the multi-year measurements of net ecosystem
productivity from towers with multi-year changes in carbon stocks measured by inventory
and other biometric techniques.
8) Using the knowledge gained in attaining the above objectives, combined with existing
land-use data, to provide better first-order approximations of the total potential for carbon
uptake, emission and sequestration by forests and wetlands on regional and national
scales.
9) Train highly-qualified personnel, inform policy-makers and increase public
understanding of Carbon cycling science and issues.
72
To attain these objectives, FLUXNET-S&SW Asia should employ a strategy that
integrates three major network components:
a) The measurement of fluxes and
b) Stable isotopes at various stations across the region and
b) Carbon cycle model development, evaluation, and validation, so that the knowledge
gained through the measurements can be extrapolated in both space and time.
Accordingly the following activities are proposed to establish a carbon cycle and GHG
monitoring system in the region in two phases.
Phase one: Study phase
During this phase the establishment of FLUXNET-South and Southwest Asia will be
investigated thoroughly. To do this, following steps are regarded as necessary:
-
Define the objectives of the network and its mission, scientifically and
operationally
Identifying the best locations for the establishment of the network stations.
Documenting the station types and equipment.
Assessing the credibility of using satellite observation products in carbon cycle
and GHGs monitoring.
Estimation of the costs of establishing the network and keeping it operational.
Developing a strategic plan to provide a framework for meeting the challenges
that the network could be faced with in the future.
Estimation of the manpower needed.
Phase two: establishment of the network
The network should be able to provide data on the magnitude of carbon storage and the
exchange of energy, CO2 and water vapor in the terrestrial system. The network should
also be able to provide data on the influence of vegetation type, changes in land use
management, and historical disturbances. Accordingly, the following actions are
proposed:
-
Establishing micrometeorological sites in natural resources such as rangeland
and forests, etc.
Establishing micrometeorological sites in rural and urban areas, to measure
the rate at which CO2 and GHGs are emitted and energy and water vapor are
exchanged.
Transforming some agrometeorological and agricultural research stations to
FLUXNET stations.
Establishing national, regional and international collaboration in operation of
the network and exchange of collected data.
Training manpower to a high standard to assure the availability of accurate
data.
Regional Carbon cycle model development and evaluation and network
adjustment.
Contribution to GCOS/GTOS.
73
Since there is no such network available throughout the region, the project will lead to
improvement in the global coverage of the FLUXNET network and to a better and
greater understanding of sources and sinks of CO2 and of global warming and climate
change on regional and global scales.
Project Duration
Foreseen project duration is 5 years; 2 years for phase one and 3 years for phase two.
Indicative Budget
Phase one
This phase will ensure the successful implementation of phase two and a properly
designed network that could join the global network of FLUXNET sites. Phase one
activities cover a wide range of scientific studies and activities in different media from
atmosphere to terrestrial ecosystem. Consequently, scientists from different disciplines
should be involved in phase one activities. Also, it is advisable to use the experience
from other existing FLUXNET networks in developing FLUXNET-South and Southwest
Asia. This phase’s activities include site experiments, too. Taking all these into account
the total estimated budget for this phase of project will be US$1,200,000.
Phase two
Phase two activities are mainly concerned with the implementation of phase one
outcomes and the establishment of FLUXNET sites. The most important activities in this
phase of project will be the development of a regional carbon cycle model and the
evaluation of network performance and introduction of necessary changes and
adjustments. Since part of the equipment that have been used during phase one will
also be used in phase two, the estimated budget for this phase will be US$800,000.
Total
US$2,000,000
Potential Donors and Partners:
WMO/GCOS, FAO/GTOS, GEOSS, GEF, National governments.
Risk and Sustainability
The main source of risk to the sustainable operation of the network comes from lack of
funding. To avoid this problem it is suggested that the network to be seen as a property
of the countries in the region and they contribute to its expenses permanently.
(Author: Dr. Amir Hussain Meshkatee, 41 Shahid Rabbani, St. Shahid. St. Pasdarsn St.
Post Code 16649-65433, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran)
74
APPENDIX P-7
Needed Improvements in Database Management
and Data Rescue for Climate Assessment
Background:
The provision of reliable meteorological and hydrological data sets is a key objective of
GCOS. These homogeneous data sets are the basic elements in climate assessment
and climate modeling. Some scientific workshops that focus on climate change indices,
like the one held in Turkey October 2004, show no clear climatic trends in temperature
and rainfall in those countries with short data record. We need to preserve old
documents and digitize records that will build a longer data history in order to understand
the climate. Implementing powerful database systems in all NMHSs will ensure easy
access and provide the user community with reliable data that will increase benefits and
mitigate losses. Another important issue is the ability of NMHSs to make scientific use of
these datasets to assess the regional climate. Here statistical analysis and methods are
key tools in defining climate episodes and relating these to anomalies such as ENSO or
the Indian Ocean Dipole IOD.
Integrated database systems (including as a minimum the Essential Climate Variables
(ECVs) will help in raising the level of confidence in understanding regional climate and
its variations and, more importantly, the mechanisms which influence the variations.
This will allow climate modelers to identify the appropriate predictors for their models
either for short range variability (e.g. related to ENSO) or for longer range climate
change due to increasing green house gas concentration. The database systems should
be built as an integrated project in conjunction with the other proposed projects (i.e.
establishing a GAW aerosol monitoring programme, monitoring glaciers, satellite
measured parameters, hydrological data, Indian Ocean Observing System
(oceanographic) data)). This will permit the maximum use of all available data for
assessing climate variability and change and for regional modeling.
Given that the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC indicated that developing countries
will be hit first and hardest from adverse impacts of climate change because of their low
adaptive capacity, the most basic and high priority action is to build up a reliable, quality
controlled, and long record of meteorological data.
Objectives:
The specific project objectives are:
1- Raise awareness of the importance of such a project among the decision
makers.
2- Assembly and inventory of all available meteorological and hydrological data.
3- Provide digital photographing of original historical observational data.
4- Image all the old synoptic surface/upper air charts for examining the broader
scale changes that influence the regional climate/weather.
5- Assist the country to ensure continuity in data rescue, archiving and quality
control
6- Upgrading the hardware and software for the national climatic database and
archives.
75
7- Ensure all the NMHS have a powerful database system like those evaluated by
the Commission for Climatology expert team.
8- Create reliable datasets of meteorological and hydrological observations.
9- Improve mechanisms of data exchange , dissemination and Pay particular
attention to data retrieval from climate databases
10- Encourage creating of metadata for all stations
11- Encourage web-based production systems
12- Enhance use of data to applied climatology
13- using climate data for assessing the quality of climate model forecasts
14- Implement a climatic/hydrological monitoring system.
15- Provide advanced training in database management and organize training in
statistics applied to climatology and hydrology.
Location:
All the countries concerned in South and Southwest Asia and future Regional Climate
Centers RCCs. (I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization proposes to establish a
regional RCC)
Duration:
It is expected that the project will be implemented over a 5 year period.
Expected Outcomes:
1- Preserve all climatological and hydrological documents in electronic format and
create reliable historical datasets.
2- Ensure digitization capacity in each country.
3- Establishment of powerful database management systems.
4- Provision of meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic data series for the
research community (seasonal and climate modeling).
5- Understand the social and economic impacts of weather/climate and develop
national and regional plans to mitigate losses.
6- Improve the national centers' services and products for the end user.
7- The development of a group of scientists in developing countries who could
contribute directly to national analysis on the impacts of climate change and to
national participation in international meetings such as the IPCC and GCOS.
8- Create a complete set of metadata for all GSN and GUAN stations.
9- Allow a better evaluation of the model skills in simulating temporal and spatial
scales.
Implementation:
The project could take place in a 3-4 year period after approval and funding.
Phase One
Duration: Year 1
--
Arrangement workshop in order to assess the needs in data rescue,
status of existing climate data management system if any, needs in
training in system administration, data management, and product
development.
76
–
Set up project organisation
•
•
–
–
–
Appoint a Steering Committee at high level which has
responsibility for managing project and contact persons in each
NMHS
Finalize schedule and define success indicators
Appoint sufficient dedicated staff in all NMHS and start general training
courses (prerequisite, climatology)
Help NMHS convincing their government about relevance of project and
economic value of climate data.
Check relevance of data model (structure of data & metadata) at regional
level and finalize the regional standards in this respect
Phase Two:
Duration: Years 2-3
– According to the workshop results, start data rescue programme as
follows:
• Provide digital photographing equipment.
• Provide training in the use of the equipment.
• Start imaging process of the data records at risk.
• Retain a backup of the images in NMS.
– Implementation of climate data management systems in relevant
countries.
• Connect those system to real time system (e.g. AMSS) for easier
data ingestion and to apply proper and adequate quality control of
the data at basic and modern advance level.
Implement daily operation of systems
Training in system administration
Training in system management
Start climate production from the new data base.
– Migrate old data (from data rescue or from existing system) to new
system
• removal of inhomogeneity from meteorological data series,
which is caused by changes in observation and processing
procedure, replacement of instruments, etc.
• Start offering services to NMHS (back-up centre, research
centre, training centre)
• Start developing software applications and share with
NMHS
– Organize training in statistics related to climatology and hydrology.
Phase Two:
Duration: Year 4
– Finalize system implementation
– Assess quality of the project
– Provide modifications to system if needed
– Start regional applications from coordinated operation of all climate data
management systems.
– Organize regional workshop in statistical analysis to exchange the results
and experiences.
77
Requirements
The exact detailed required items will be better identified after the completion of phase
one.
•
Hardware (minimum config: 1 server + workstations + data entry system + UPS)
•
Data rescue system:
o
Basic (digitization by digital camera)
o
A3 scanner with software capable of producing editable output in a form that can
be easily transported to any database software for secondary processing with
digitizing software (arcInfo, arcview)
o
Advanced : data entry connected to Climate data management system
•
Software
o
Basic Software : Oracle RDBMS
o
Freeware : Linux, Zope, …
o
Application software
•
Training
Data Rescue
•
Refresher course on proper use of the hardware (digitizer, scanner, digital
camera) is necessary.
Data management system
Regarding the climate data management system to be implemented, all training
courses will be provided. These courses are as follows:
Linux
o
To enable the system administrator team to administer servers and the linux
client platform
Database
o
To enable everyone to understand the database
o
To enable the database administrator team to administer the databases
Zope application server
o
To enable climatological administrators to administer the zope server and to add
new products
o
To enable some developers to create and add new products on the production
server
Climatological operations
o
To enable the climatological administrator team to:
o Understand the database structure
78
o Add new data types
o Use operations taken through the application server
Developers
o
To enable climatological developers to:
o Understand the database structure
o Use their RDBMS space from their PCs
Risk and Sustainability:
For long-term sustainability, there are some critical issues to be examined:
1- Recognition by all countries of the national and global programme benefits .
2- The ability to provide enthusiastic and dedicated in-country staff to manage and
execute the program.
3- Continued digitization of future data and making data management a daily
activity.
4- Creation of a backup archive of images in a separate location such as
universities and research centers.
Indicative Budget:
The total cost of the data rescue and database management systems project will depend
on the needs of the NMHSs and CDMS include CLISYS or DCLDB will be identified
after study phase based on their needs and capabilities. The quantity of data that need
to be photographed or digitized, the climate database management systems and training
requirements are all factors that will influence the cost. The evaluation phase will help in
estimating the budget required. The following cost estimates will provide a general idea
of budget required per country:
For the data rescue programme:
Digitization:
- USD $3.00 per radiosonde observation
- USD$ 1.00 per surface observation
Equipment: $9,000 - Based on the assumption that each participating country will
receive the following:
-
2 digital cameras.
2 camera stands.
2 personal computers with read/write CD/ROM drives.
2 computer monitors.
Surge protectors.
Supply of CD-ROMs to begin the project.
Supply of pre-addressed postage paid envelopes for shipping photographed data
on CD-ROMs
1 UPS unit (battery) in countries with electrical power source is unstable.)
79
For the database systems (DCLDB):
Dual Climate Data Base (DCLDB) - Oracle based database
Computer System and Application Software will have at least the following as
minimum:
1.
2.
3.
Back up PC will be identical to the DCLDB computer.
System and Application Software as well as ten current clients on the network.
Training user on features of DCLDB (five days)
Total per one country: 50000 $
Training
Training of 2 climatologists and 2 hydrologists in the administration and the
management of these databases – 2 Weeks 25000 $
Total (US Dollars) 75000 $
For the database systems (CLISYS):
CLISYS Data Base - Oracle based database
Scenario 1:
• Single system: full budget 225.000 US $, incl.
– H/W (1 server, 2 WS, UPS, back-up system, 2 printers)
– Software (Oracle, Management, Production, data entry)
– Spare parts
– Factory configuration incl. rescue of old digitized data (e.g. Clicom)
– Factory Training 1 administrator + 2 users over 3 weeks
– Site Installation
– SAT
– Site training from F over 3 weeks
Scenario 2:
• Project incl. 5 systems in 5 countries: (nb could be more of course)
– full budget : 170.000 US $ per country incl.
– single system :
• H/W (1 server, 2 WS, UPS, back-up system, 2 printers)
• Software (Oracle, Management, Production, data entry)
• Spare parts
• Factory configuration incl. rescue of old digitized data (e.g.
Clicom)
• SAT
• Site training over 3 weeks
– "factory services"
• Factory Training for 1 administrator + 2 users over 3 weeks
Workshop for addressing the countries need
The budget for a workshop to address country needs is about 50000 $
Authors:
1- Mr Said Alsarmi (Oman).
2- Mrs Farah Mohammadi (Iran)
80
ANNEX 1
Sub-activity
1
1- Provide
digital
photography
equipment.
2- Provide
training in
the use of
the
equipment.
3- Start
imaging
process of
the data
records at
risk.
4- Retain a
backup of
the images
in NMS.
2
1- Equip NMHS
with database
systems.
2- Train the
administrators
of the
systems.
3- Migrate
history data
that already
APPENDIX
A-7
existed in
numerical
form to the
new system.
3
1- Provide
advanced
training in the
database
management
system.
2- Provide
continuous
follow up of
monitoring
operation.
4
1- Organize
training in
statistics
related to
climatology
and
hydrology.
2- Organize
regional
workshop in
statistical
analysis to
exchange
the results
and
experiences.
81
APPENDIX P-8
Building regional capacity for satellite applications to climate and national development
[TO BE REVISED]
Background:
South and Southwest Asia encompasses highly varied topography and climate and includes a
vast oceanic area. Since in-situ observations cover only a small part of the region, satellite
observations are particularly important in monitoring its climate and, in fact, satellites operated
by various nations and international missions provide extensive remote sensing coverage of the
region. Data from METEOSAT, NOAA, DMSP, GOES, POES, GMS, FY-2, INSAT, TERRA,
AQUA and other satellites are being received and processed while India plans to launch
additional satellites in the near future. Megha–Tropique, Oceansat-2, INSAT-3D are the
important upcoming Indian satellites.
Satellite data are used for variety of climatological applications including studies of
desertification, the role of aerosols in regional climate and the monsoon circulation. They are
also used for the generation of land surface data for use in regional climate models for impact
studies. Considerable capability to receive, process, and apply satellite remote sensing data is
already in place in South and Southwest Asia, although there are substantial variations in
reception and processing facilities and expertise between different nations. The application of
satellite remote sensing and telecommunications capabilities to the observation and exchange
of data on the climate system must, therefore, continue to be encouraged and facilitated.
Needs exist to improve infrastructure, facilitate users' access to satellite data and products, and
expand the retrieval and validation of satellite-derived parameters in different parts of the region.
Capacity building and other investment initiatives aimed at responding to these needs should
take advantage of regional and other training facilities and institutions to further develop national
and regional capabilities in satellite data preprocessing, product retrievals, and application of
satellite products.
Objective:
To make use of satellite data for regional climate studies in South and Southwest Asia.
Project Design:
Reception of operational satellite data like METEOSAT/INSAT/NOAA using IMD developed
system or direct reception:
IMD has developed a system for disseminating data through satellite. Such a system may be
installed wherever direction reception systems are not available. Besides dissemination of
satellite-derived products this system also disseminates forecast products. These systems are
portable, stand-alone systems using L-band frequencies to disseminate digital products such as
weather charts, numerical forecasts and satellite based estimates of meteorological parameters.
It is possible to fabricate such systems in larger numbers, at lower costs, to enable wider
utilization of satellite derived climate products. It is proposed to explore this technology to build
capability in the south and southwest Asian Region to receive and use high quality satellite
derived climate information.
82
Reception of R&D satellite data:
Many R&D satellite retrieval products are now available on respective web-sites. These
parameters are not available on a real time basis. But for climate studies, the data in post facto
mode may also work. The data to be analysed over different regions are (i) Precipitation (ii)
Surface and upper air temperature (iii) Vegetation indices (iv) OLR etc. Essential component in
this part has to be the validation of the Satellite derived parameters.
Utilisation of satellite data centers like MOSDAC:
ISRO is establishing a Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Centre (MOSDAC).
MOSDAC will be a web based center and may archive data for part of these regions from
different Satellite missions. GCOS may approach ISRO for availability of this data to users in the
South & South-West Asian region.
Utilisation in country specific applications:
Country specific application projects using digital Satellite data be made. They include:
- Drought Studies.
- Role of dust in regional climate.
- Monsoon vagaries.
- Impact of Tropical Cyclones.
Satellite generated land-surface parameters and use in climate studies:
There is a need to generate land surface parameters like vegetation cover, land use, snow
cover etc from satellites and study its role in regional climate studies. Generation of these
parameters will need big efforts and availability of resource satellite data. An outsourcing
contract may be given to some agency for generating such data for this region at higher
resolution.
Capacity building through regional UN Centre like CSSTEAP (Long and Short Programmes):
Under the aegies of the United Nations, a regional Center – the Center for Space Technology
Education in Asia Pacific (CSSTEAP) - is operative in India and works in close collaboration
with ISRO. Satellite Meteorology and Global Climate is one of the strongest components.
CSSTEAP has already made a significant contribution to capacity build up in this region. GCOS
may consider the following suggestions:
In each course (9 month) of the CSSTEAP, GCOS may sponsor few candidates from selective
countries needing capacity building. This may require supporting their travel and living
expenses. GCOS may suggest to CSSTEAP that the Centre develop a few thematic short
courses specifically targeted at this region and covering the regional climate.
Location:
The study area has to be whole region in South and South-West Asia. The coordination activity
can be undertaken from India, as good expertise exists in this area.
Duration:
Five Years.
83
Expected Outcomes: Satellite data for regular use. Climatic trends in the region.
Implementation: By involving all the organizations in the region, an implementation strategy
can be worked out, after assessing the status in each country.
Risk and Sustainability: GCOS may have to make arrangement for free availability of satellite
data. (To be worked out after implementation strategy has been discussed)
Indicative Budget:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Software for Satellite Data Processing.
Equipment for Satellite data reception.
Computing Systems.
Validation data.
84
APPENDIX P-9
Enhancement of Regional Climate Modeling Capacity in South and Southwest Asia
Background
The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
notes that the current versions of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs)
have generally simulated the features of the present day climate well at the large and
continental scale. TAR also notes that the AOGCM resolution limitations, especially for impact
application, are likely to persist for many years. Consequently, regionalization work will be an
important priority to improve understanding of regional climate change processes and to provide
regional information for impact assessments. The effects of climate change are expected to be
greatest in the developing world, especially in countries reliant on primary production as a major
source of income. In narrowing the gap between current knowledge and policymaking needs,
one of the high priorities is the quantitative assessment of sensitivity, adaptive capacity and
vulnerability to climate change, particularly in relation to the major agro-economic indicators that
largely depend upon regional/local manifestations of climate change. It has been felt necessary
to devote coordinated efforts to evaluating different regionalization methodologies, intercomparing methods and models, and applying these methods to climate change research in a
comprehensive strategy. In view of the widespread requirement for high-resolution regional
scenarios of climate change for impact assessment studies, state-of-art techniques have been
used to dynamically downscale global model projections for the Indian region. The application
of regional models has enabled quantitative estimates to be made of future changes at a
resolution of ~50 x 50 km and these scenarios have been extensively used in impact
assessments by several groups (e.g., Indo-UK, NATCOM, APN, START, etc.).
In recognition of the common needs of the countries within South and Southwest Asia and the
benefits of enabling regional groups to process and assess climate information pertaining to
their own regions, concerted and complementary efforts have been undertaken to bring together
the available expertise and create awareness and skilled manpower to undertake the tasks of
regional climate scenario development and impact assessment. For example, a training
workshop on the analysis of climatic extremes was held, under the auspices of GCOS, at the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India in February, 2005, in which
representatives from almost all the countries in South and Central Asia have participated.
Similar initiatives to train regional groups in the use of regional climate models have also been
undertaken by the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. IITM
has been playing a coordinating role to assist South Asian nations in the application of the
regional model developed by the Hadley Centre. The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) has also endorsed the potential benefits arising from the application, in a
coordinated manner, of regional models. These initiatives have been immensely successful,
prompting efforts to build a sustained regional framework for capacity building in this area of
research.
85
Objectives
This project is broadly aimed at the advancement of our understanding of the expected nature
of climate variability and change over South and Southwest Asia and has the following major
objectives:
-
To perform detailed diagnostics of climate model control runs to assess models’ skill in
simulation of present day climate and its variability over different regions in South and
Southwest Asia;
-
Analysis of perturbed simulations with IS92a/SRES emission scenarios to quantify the
climate change pattern over South and Southwest Asia during the 21st century;
-
Application of regionalization techniques, such as regional climate models, to improve
the assessment of climate change on regional scales and to generate high-resolution
climate change scenarios for South and Southwest Asia;
-
To study the sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to natural/anthropogenic
perturbations by model output diagnostics and numerical experiments;
-
To examine the nature of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of severe
weather and climate events associated with the expected climate change over South
and Southwest Asia;
-
To interact with various regional impact assessment groups and design specific
climate change data products for use in their models;
-
To train regional climate groups within the South and Southwest Asian countries in the
application of regional climate models for climate prediction strategies;
-
Establishment of a regional coordination centre at the Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM), India to act as a training and information resource in regional
climate modeling.
Location
The project will focus on the nations in South and Southwest Asia, viz., Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc. The project will be
coordinated at IITM, Pune, India, with the active participation of other institutions involved in
climate research in the different countries of South and Southwest Asia. The India
Meteorological Department, which is the GCOS Focal Point in India, will be closely involved in
the activities planned at IITM. Efforts will be made to get active participation by the UK Met
Office’s Hadley Center in training as well as climate change scenario development work.
Existing regional cooperative establishments like the SAARC (South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation) Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh will also
be involved, to promote wider regional participation.
Duration
The proposed duration of the project is five years. The project will initially establish a network of
scientists having the required skill sets and interest to carry out regional climate modeling
86
activities. A large part of the project duration will be devoted to conducting training workshops
in regional climate modeling, facilitating the application of regional climate models in each of the
constituent nations, and to evaluating the model data products on a country wise basis.
Project design
-
Identification of participating countries/agencies in the endeavor of developing climate
change scenarios, vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies for the
individual nations and for the region as a whole.
-
Making regional climate model simulations for different future time-slices as well as for
different emission scenarios, focussing on the South and Southwest Asian region.
-
Development of nation-specific scenarios and initiating utilization of such highresolution scenarios in crosscutting disciplines to generate broad guidelines useful for
policy makers in each of the countries in the region.
-
Capacity building in the area of climate variability and climate change by way of
training personnel from each of the countries in the region.
-
Organization of training workshops and establishment of a resource base at IITM,
India for regional climate modeling, analysis and data.
Implementation
The first task of the project is to create a network of climate scientists and other relevant groups
from within South and Southwest Asia, by collecting information through different international
and regional sources. The national GCOS Focal Points and/or National Meteorological
Services will be requested to provide information on the local groups. An inaugural workshop
will then be organized at IITM, Pune, India to bring together all the interested groups. At this
workshop, details of the project components will be presented and a detailed work plan and
deliverables will be prepared, after discussing the specific needs of individual countries/regions.
As a first step in understanding the skills of climate models in simulating the regional climate,
the runs made for IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) will be subjected to detailed
diagnostics by the individual countries for their respective spatial domains. All relevant data
from the AR4 model data archives will be acquired by IITM, and the regional subsets of the data
will be prepared and distributed. These diagnostics will provide both an idea of the skill of
global coupled models in representing regional climatic characteristics and preliminary
estimates of the future climatic scenarios in a regional context. This exercise will also be carried
out independently at IITM, to standardize the diagnostic products and to provide a verification
benchmark for the analyses performed by individual countries. The analyses at IITM will be
carried out with the help of observed data provided by the individual countries and the data
available in the public domain.
A training workshop focused on regional climate modeling and the development of highresolution climate prediction products will be organized at IITM, to provide conceptual
understanding of dynamical downscaling techniques and also deliver hands-on training in the
installation and running of the PRECIS regional climate model. It is also proposed to involve the
Hadley Centre in this activity, to provide their inputs related to the installation of the regional
climate model PRECIS, distribution of data on lateral boundary conditions, and design of
87
simulation experiments. Workshop participants will be provided with the required software, data
and other supporting material to carry out the modeling work in their respective home countries.
A special mailing list will be created to help the participants to interact with each other and also
to facilitate obtaining expert advice in resolving practical problems in the application of regional
climate models.
The workshop will be followed by a period of a coordinated regional climate modeling activity in
the participating countries, with a common set of lateral boundary conditions, both control and
perturbed. It is proposed to make the runs for 30-year time slices for the baseline and future
periods. The baseline runs will be evaluated by the respective groups using locally available
observational data. As in the case of global model simulations, the validation work on regional
climate model simulations will also be carried out in IITM in order to cross-compare the results
obtained by the individual countries. This will be done after requesting the observed data they
have used in their validation work.
High-resolution climate prediction products will be designed and developed, based on the local
requirements. The results of the coordinated regional modeling activity will be presented and
discussed at SMRC, Dhaka, Bangladesh, tentatively scheduled in the fourth year of the project.
Development of a regional climate modeling resource base at IITM is proposed to be an integral
part of the project, which is expected to be sustained in the long term. This resource base will
cater to the needs of the individual modeling groups in training the scientists, updating the
models, providing diagnostic tools, and the available data in the public domain. The resource
base can also act as an archive of regional climate change data products to which the
participating countries can opt to contribute. This resource base, in addition, can have longterm visiting scientist programmes to help create regional expertise in climate modeling
strategies.
Expected outcomes
-
Evaluation of regional climate models for South and Southwest Asia.
-
High-resolution climate prediction products.
-
Regional assessment of climate change and related vulnerability.
-
Development of policy-relevant climate prediction strategies.
-
Capacity building in regional climate modeling, by facilitating well-trained climate
scientists in each of the countries in the region to carry forward climate and climate
change related work.
-
Training and diagnostics workshops.
-
Establishment of a regional climate information resource base for regional modeling,
training and data at IITM to cater to the needs of south and southwest Asia.
-
Publications by the country groups of their results in peer-reviewed scientific journals.
-
Feedback to GCOS about the relevant issues.
88
Risk and sustainability
Identifying skilled groups and mobilizing wider participation by nations in the region could be a
challenge. However, GCOS National Focal Points, National Meteorological Services and the
proposed inception workshop at IITM are expected to facilitate such identification and
participation. Access to observed climate data required for the evaluation of regional climate
models is also a challenge, which can be addressed by empowering the regional groups to do
all the analysis on their own, so that wider data sharing does not become a constraint.
However, where possible, the data used by the regional groups will be requested for the
purposes of cross comparison and independent verification of results and will be archived at
IITM. Infrastructure requirements for regional climate modeling within the participating nations
can be a major constraint, and the participating nations are required to explore sources of
support. The project, however, will endorse and facilitate the funding requests for this purpose.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has an active collaborative programme with the
Hadley Center, UK and we hope that the Hadley Center will continue to help us in modeling
efforts. Regional climate variability and change is a major component of the Institute’s mandate,
and therefore the activities initiated under this project have a very high level of sustainability as
integral part of its own research programmes. IITM is already informally coordinating similar
activities in South Asia, and this experience can be valuable in developing the present project.
Indicative budget
Inaugural Workshop at IITM, India:
Training Workshop at IITM, India:
Diagnostics Workshop at SMRC, Bangladesh:
Visiting Scientists Programme at IITM:
Coordination Centre at IITM:
US$50,000
US$60,000
US$80,000
US$50,000
US$100,000
(Authors: Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, Scientist-F & Head, Climatology & Hydrometeorology Division,
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India.
Dr. K. Krishna Kumar, Scientist-D, Climatology & Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India.
Dr. G. Srinivasan, Director and GCOS Focal Point, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi,
India.
Dr. L.P. Devkota, Scientist, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka,
Bangladesh.)
89
APPENDICES B-1 to B–5
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
90
APPENDIX B - 1
GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles
Effective monitoring systems for climate should adhere to the following principles*:
1. The impact of new systems or changes to existing systems should be assessed prior to
implementation.
2. A suitable period of overlap for new and old observing systems is required.
3. The details and history of local conditions, instruments, operating procedures, data
processing algorithms and other factors pertinent to interpreting data (i.e., metadata) should
be documented and treated with the same care as the data themselves.
4. The quality and homogeneity of data should be regularly assessed as a part of routine
operations.
5. Consideration of the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring products and
assessments, such as IPCC assessments, should be integrated into national, regional and
global observing priorities.
6. Operation of historically uninterrupted stations and observing systems should be
maintained.
7. High priority for additional observations should be focused on data-poor regions, poorly
observed parameters, regions sensitive to change, and key measurements with inadequate
temporal resolution.
8. Long-term requirements, including appropriate sampling frequencies, should be specified to
network designers, operators and instrument engineers at the outset of system design and
implementation.
9. The conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations in a carefully
planned manner should be promoted.
10. Data management systems that facilitate access, use and interpretation of data and
products should be included as essential elements of climate monitoring systems.
Furthermore, operators of satellite systems for monitoring climate need to:
(a) Take steps to make radiance calibration, calibration-monitoring and satellite-to-satellite
cross-calibration of the full operational constellation a part of the operational satellite
system; and
(b) Take steps to sample the Earth system in such a way that climate-relevant (diurnal,
seasonal, and long-term interannual) changes can be resolved.
Thus satellite systems for climate monitoring should adhere to the following specific principles:
91
11. Constant sampling within the diurnal cycle (minimizing the effects of orbital decay and orbit
drift) should be maintained.
12. A suitable period of overlap for new and old satellite systems should be ensured for a period
adequate to determine inter-satellite biases and maintain the homogeneity and consistency
of time-series observations.
13. Continuity of satellite measurements (i.e. elimination of gaps in the long-term record)
through appropriate launch and orbital strategies should be ensured.
14. Rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, including radiance
confirmation against an international radiance scale provided by a national metrology
institute, should be ensured.
15. On-board calibration adequate for climate system observations should be ensured and
associated instrument characteristics monitored.
16. Operational production of priority climate products should be sustained and peer-reviewed
new products should be introduced as appropriate.
17. Data systems needed to facilitate user access to climate products, metadata and raw data,
including key data for delayed-mode analysis, should be established and maintained.
18. Use of functioning baseline instruments that meet the calibration and stability requirements
stated above should be maintained for as long as possible, even when these exist on decommissioned satellites.
19. Complementary in situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be
maintained through appropriate activities and cooperation.
20. Random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations and derived products
should be identified.
__________
92
APPENDIX B - 2
GSN Stations in South and Southwest Asia (1 January 2005)
INDEX NO.
STATION NAME
LATITUDE
LONGITUDE ELEVATION (M)
AFGHANISTAN, ISLAMIC STATE OF
40930
NORTH-SALANG
35 19N
69 01E
3,366
BAHRAIN
41150
INDIA
42027
42083
42165
42182
42295
42410
42515
42539
42587
42671
42731
42779
43041
43063
43128
43279
43295
43333
43339
43363
43369
BAHRAIN
(INT. AIRPORT)
26 16N
50 39E
2
SRINAGAR
SHIMLA
BIKANER
NEW DELHI
/SAFDARJUNG
DARJEELING
GAUHATI
CHERRAPUNJI
DEESA
DALTONGANJ
SAGAR
DWARKA
PENDRA ROAD
JAGDALPUR
POONA
HYDERABAD
AIRPORT
MADRAS
/MINAMBAKKAM
BANGALORE
PORT BLAIR
KODAIKANAL
PAMBAN
MINICOY
34 05N
31 06N
28 00N
28 35N
74 50E
77 10E
73 18E
77 12E
1,587
2,202
224
216
27 03N
26 06N
25 15N
24 12N
24 03N
23 51N
22 22N
22 46N
19 05N
18 32N
17 27N
88 16E
91 35E
91 44E
72 12E
84 04E
78 45E
69 05E
81 54E
82 02E
73 51E
78 28E
2,128
54
1,313
136
221
551
11
625
553
559
545
13 00N
80 11E
16
12 58N
11 40N
10 14N
09 16N
08 18N
77 35E
92 43E
77 28E
79 18E
73 09E
921
79
2,343
11
2
38 05N
36 16N
35 41N
46 17E
59 38E
51 19E
1,361
999
1,191
34 16N
30 15N
29 32N
29 28N
47 07E
56 58E
52 32E
60 53E
1,322
1,754
1,481
1,370
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF
40706
TABRIZ
40745
MASHHAD
40754
TEHRAN
/MEHRABAD
40766
KERMANSHAH
40841
KERMAN
40848
SHIRAZ
40856
ZAHEDAN
93
IRAQ
40665
KUT-AL-HAI
32 10N
46 03E
15
KUWAIT
INT'L AIRPORT
29 13N
47 59E
55
MALE
04 12N
73 32E
2
KATHMANDU
AIRPORT
27 42N
85 22E
1,337
OMAN
41254
41288
41316
SAIQ
MASIRAH
SALALAH
23 04N
20 40N
17 02N
57 38E
58 54E
54 05E
23
PAKISTAN
41560
41620
41640
41712
41759
41765
PARACHINAR
ZHOB
LAHORE CITY
DAL BANDIN
PASNI
HYDER ABAD *
33 52N
31 21N
31 33N
28 53N
25 16N
25 23N
70 05E
69 28E
74 20E
64 24E
63 29E
68 25E
1,726
1,407
215
850
6
30
40 06E
41 41E
39 42E
46 44E
689
1,002
636
620
39 11E
17
42 35E
7
KUWAIT
40582
MALDIVES
43555
NEPAL
44454
SAUDI ARABIA
40361
AL-JOUF
29 47N
40394
HAIL
27 26N
40430
AL-MADINAH
24 33N
40438
RIYADH OBS.
24 42N
(O.A.P.)
41024
JEDDAH
21 42N
(KING ABDUL AZIZ INT'L. AIRPORT)
41140
GIZAN
16 53N
SRI LANKA
43473
43497
NUWARA ELIYA
HAMBANTOTA
06 58N
06 07N
80 46E
81 08E
20
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
41196
SHARJAH
INT'L. AIRPORT
25 20N
55 31E
33
94
APPENDIX B - 3
GUAN Stations in South and Southwest Asia (1 January, 2005)
INDEX NO.
STATION NAME
LATITUDE
LONGITUDE ELEVATION (M)
MASHAD
36 16N
59 38E
999
GAN
00 41S
73 09E
2
18 14N
42 39E
2,093
24 26N
54 39E
27
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
40745
MALDIVES
43599
SAUDI ARABIA
41112
ABHA
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
41217
ABU DHABI INT'L.
AIRPORT
APPENDIX B - 4
Baseline Surface Radiation Network Stations in South and Southwest Asia
STATION NAME
SPONSOR
Solar Village, Riyadh
(SOV)
Saudi Arabia
Maldives
(MAL)
Maldives/USA
LATITUDE
LONGITUDE
24° 55' N
46° 25' E
o
73° E
c
5° N
STATUS*
*Definition of `STATUS'
Operational (o): - stations contributing to the BSRN archive, from which at least one monthly file
has been accepted by the and is available for extraction from the archive.
Candidate (c): - stations which are not yet submitting data, but which could do so in the future.
This can include sites where no station currently exists but which could become part of the
BSRN in the future, or stations that are obtaining data to BSRN standards, for purposes other
than BSRN, which might begin contributing to the archive at some future time.
95
APPENDIX B - 5
GLOSS CORE NETWORK (GCN) STATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA
Gloss
Longitude
Station
Code
Latitude
36
32
34
281
29
41
38
31
35
27
28
4
295
30
33
3
22 15N
9 58N
13 6N
15 25N
8 17N
7 00N
11 41N
20 54N
17 41N
0 42S
4 10N
17 00N
25 07N
24 48N
6 56 N
12 47N
91 50E
76 6E
80 18E
73 48E
73 3E
93 50E
92 46E
70 22E
83 17E
73 10E
73 30E
54 0E
62 20E
66 58E
79 51E
44 59E
Name
Responsible
Country
CHITTAGONG
BANGLADESH
COCHIN
INDIA
MADRAS
INDIA
MARMAGAO
INDIA
MINICOY, LACCADIVE IS. INDIA
NICOBAR
INDIA
PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN IS. INDIA
VERAVAL
INDIA
VISHAKHAPATNAM
INDIA
GAN
MALDIVES
MALE
MALDIVES
SALALAH
OMAN
GWADAR
PAKISTAN
KARACHI, MANORO IS.
PAKISTAN
COLOMBO
SRI LANKA
N ADEN
YEMEN, P.D.R.
96
APPENDIX B-6
Terms of Reference for the Principal Coordinator
-
Maintain links with the national GCOS Focal Points in South and Southwest Asia for future
actions pertaining to the Regional GCOS Action Plan.
-
Coordinate with the Members of the Regional Steering Committee (RSC) to discuss future
courses of action regarding the Regional GCOS Action Plan for South and Southwest Asia.
-
Keep the Members of the Regional Steering Committee informed about the progress of
activities and liaise with them to utilize opportunities to further the implementation of the
action plan.
-
Convene meetings of the Regional Steering Committee, whenever opportunity arises, and
prepare and circulate the minutes of these meetings.
97