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Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 www.elsevier.com/locate/mbs On the intra-host dynamics of HIV-1 infections Nikolaos I. Stilianakis a a,b,* , Dieter Schenzle c Department of Biometry and Epidemiology, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Waldstr. 6, 91054 Erlangen, Germany b Joint Research Centre, European Commission, T.P. 441, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Va), Italy c Department of Medical Biometry, Eberhard-Karls-University of Tübingen, Westbahnhofstr. 55, 72070 Tübingen, Germany Received 21 July 2004; received in revised form 23 May 2005; accepted 21 September 2005 Available online 15 December 2005 Abstract An extension of a previously proposed theory for the pathogenesis of AIDS is presented and analyzed using a mathematical modelling approach. This theory is based on the observation that human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) predominantly infects and replicates in CD4+-T cells, and that the infection process within an infected individual is characterized by ongoing generation and selection of HIV variants with increasing reproductive capacity. This evolutionary process is considered to be the reason for the gradual loss of immunocompetence and the final destruction of the immune system observed in most patients. The extension presented here incorporates the effect of the permanently increasing susceptibility of CD4+-T cell clones, as a result of the evolutionary process. The presented model reproduces and possibly explains a wide variety of findings about the HIV infection process. Numerical results indicate that the effect of the initial dose is minimal, and restricted to the primary phase of infection. According to the model predictions the impact of the HIV evolutionary speed is crucial for the progression to disease. An important progression determinant is the initial infection rate, being a component of the viral reproductive capacity. An influential role in disease progression seems to be played by the initial CD4+-T cell count. 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: HIV infection; Mathematical model; Disease progression; T-cell dynamics * Corresponding author. Address: Joint Research Centre, European Commission, T.P. 441, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Va), Italy. Tel.: +39 0332 786427; fax: +39 0332 785236. E-mail address: [email protected] (N.I. Stilianakis). 0025-5564/$ - see front matter 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2005.09.003 2 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 1. Introduction 1.1. HIV infection and disease progression Clinically, human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV) infection can be divided into three phases [1,2]. During the initial phase, known as primary infection, the virus present in the host replicates by infection of cells which express the CD4 receptor as well as the proper co-receptor, usually CCR5 [3]. Yet, during this early stage of primary infection the CD4+-T lymphocytes represent the largest group of target cells for HIV [4]. Within the first 3–6 weeks after infection about 50–75% of the patients develop an acute viral syndrom [5]. Symptomatic primary infection is characterized by a viremia with high numbers of infectious virus and infected cells in the peripheral circulation. At the same time a significant reduction of the CD4+-T cells of about 30–40% is observed. Between one week and three months later an HIV specific immune response is mounted and it timely coincides with a decrease of viremia and a recovery of the CD4+-T cells [6]. Virus specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) appear early and represent a critical immune component for the control of primary infection [7,8]. The combined effects of CTL and other components of the immune response as well as the limited number of target cells lead to a decrease of the viral population in blood to a low level. However, it seems impossible for the immune system to generate permanent immunity. The second phase of HIV infection is characterized by a long asymptomatic period between primary infection and the development of clinical immunodeficiency (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, AIDS). There are two striking features of the asymptomatic phase: the permanent viral replication in peripheral lymphatic tissue and the gradual loss of the CD4+-T cells. Although the asymptomatic phase may represent a period of clinical latency there is permanent virus replication during that time. Free virus can be detected in the circulation [9], but at a lower level compared to the levels during primary infection or in patients who are in the third phase (AIDS) of the infection. Infected cells are easily detectable in peripheral lymphoid tissue and their number directly correlates with the virus level in plasma. This is an indication that lymphoid tissue represents a relevant source for plasma virus [10,11]. The rate of decrease of CD4+-T cells seems to be determined by the level of the permanent viral replication since patients with higher levels of plasma virus show a faster disease progression [12]. The mechanism for the decrease of CD4+-T cells is not well understood [4]. The third and final phases of HIV infection is characterized by the development of clinical immunodeficiency. Between one and two years before the emergence of AIDS there is often a faster decline of CD4+-T cells. Before this decline an increase of viral load is observed [13], whereas viral replication is present not only in lymphoid tissue but also in many other organ systems [14,15]. When the CD4+-T cell number drops below 200 mm3 opportunistic infections occur and CD4+-T cells depletion continues leading to severe immunodeficiency and disease. The period between primary infection and disease progression is highly variable between individuals and has a wide and skewed distribution function. The median estimate is 8–11 years, without treatment, for Europe and North America with similar numbers for Africa [16–19]. Some relatively rare cases of HIV infections lead after only one year to AIDS, whereas a non-negligible part remains asymptomatic even 15 years after primary infection [20]. Some estimates indicate that a fraction of 8–15% of infected persons will be AIDS-free for more than 20 years without any therapeutical intervention [21]. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 3 During the last decade several theories have been presented in attempt to explain the pathogenic mechanisms responsible for the depletion of CD4+-T cells within an HIV infected individual. To determine those mechanisms is an essential step in understanding AIDS pathogenesis [22]. Many of these theories were accompanied with mathematical modelling. Deterministic as well as stochastic approaches were used. Deterministic models focussed on the description and the potential explanation of the CD4+-T cell depletion and the corresponding dynamics of the virus. Many of them were developed to specifically treat the issue of therapy regimes and to describe the associated dynamics. Stochastic models were used to explore the early stages of the infection. A concise review of these models with numerous references can be found in [23,24]. Almost all models were developed to treat short term dynamics of a specific phase of the infection course or an intervention, making a significant contribution in uncovering interesting aspects of the HIV infection dynamics. Little effort was made, however, to develop models that would describe the long term dynamics including all three phases of HIV infection with and without therapeutic intervention. In this work an effort to provide a general model for the long terms dynamics of HIV infection and the progression to AIDS is made. The extended theory addresses mechanisms that govern disease progression of HIV infection. 1.2. A theory for HIV disease progression HIV is a member of the family of lentiviruses. Therefore, viral replication is afflicted with many errors. Three main aspects of the genetic variability of HIV can influence the pathogenesis: (i) the development of tropism towards a more efficient replication in different cell types; (ii) antigenicity, that leads to the development of escape mutants; and (iii) virulence. HIV variants with different virulence can affect the pace and the severity of the disease. Antigenicity has received the bulk of attention, with limited consideration of aspects like tropism and virulence sufficiently [25]. There are clear indications that the evolution of more pathogenic variants has an impact on disease progression [26–30]. The extended theory focuses on the virulence and cell tropism aspects of HIV infection. HIV predominantly replicates in the CD4+-T lymphocytes HIV. A determinant of the reproduction rate is the rate at which HIV binds on these cells and enters the cells. For simplicity in our model, this is termed as infection rate. The HIV population within an infected person is inhomogeneous. There is an ongoing emergence of new variants with different infection rates. Since HIV particles compete for reproduction in the same cell populations obviously selection takes place. This leads to a directed evolution of HIV towards higher cell infection rates. This evolutionary process is host-specific, if the interaction between HIV and CD4+-T cell involves surface structures that are differ between individuals. Such structures are present, for example, on the T-cell receptor for MHC-II-restricted recognition. This receptor is integrated with the CD4 molecule, the HIV receptor. These postulates combined with the assumption of an activated anti-HIV response at its maximal level, led to a simplified mathematical model that already reproduced some of the main findings about the individual HIV infection courses [31,32]. The development of sensitive methods for measuring virus load in blood and in lymphoid tissue has led to the identification of valuable new data. These data support the predictions of the preliminary model. Based on initial findings a more realistic modelling approach is presented here by incorporating additional important features of the HIV immunopathology. With the extended model a more detailed 4 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 analysis of the clinical and epidemiological data is possible. In this way the predictive power of the model is improved. This is shown with numerical results from the extended model with current best estimates of crucial parameters. The qualitative features, and the predictive behavior of the extended model is demonstrated. Implications from numerical solutions of the model are discussed. 2. Basic mechanisms 2.1. HIV variability and competitive selection Most of the fundamental ideas of the proposed theory has been presented in detail in our previous work [31,32]. We epigrammatically review them here. A striking feature of HIV infection is the high within-host genetic variability of HIV observed. Hence, in many infected cells deleterious mutations should occur, most mutations are perhaps neutral, but with some 1011 newly produced HIV particles per day in an infected individual, HIV mutants with one or more of the following properties can be expected: an increased cell infection rate, an increased within-cell replication rate, a decreased cell removal rate or a decreased virus removal rate. The population dynamics of virus-cell interaction is marked by competitive exclusion between HIV mutants which compete for replication in the same susceptible cells, predominantly CD4+-T cells. If a virus particle enters a cell population with a fixed initial number of susceptible cells, then it will generate another average number R0 of infectious virus particles. Given two HIV variants, namely 1 and 2, and a persistent state with respect to virus 1 with basic reproduction number R01, introduction of virus 2 with a reproduction number R02 leads to two possible states (besides the unlikely equilibrium state with coexistence of both virus types, if R01 = R02). If R02 < 1 < R01, then virus 2 will not replicate, whereas in case of R02 > R01 > 1 virus 1 becomes gradually replaced by virus 2. During the transient phase, when both types of virus are still present, one may speak of an average effective virus reproduction number R0 which increases steadily with time from R01 to R02. That competitive selection is involved in the case of HIV infection and can be demonstrated during treatment where fast selection of drug resistant HIV strains has been observed [33–35]. 2.2. Host-specific evolution of HIV HIV variation and selection result in a directed evolution of HIV towards higher reproductive capacity, but according to the central hypothesis underlying the present work, this evolution can be considered as highly host-specific. This means that upon transmission of HIV between individuals the evolutionary clock will be set back every time. Otherwise one would expect at the level of the human population a noticeable evolution of HIV towards higher virulence. But this does not seem to be the case. Therefore, if HIV can mutate to improve its CD4+-T cell infection rate, and if HIV mutants compete for reproduction within the same cell population, then a directed evolution takes place. In the context of our model an increase of the cell infection rate will cause an irreversible increase in the HIV basic reproduction number R0. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 5 A series of clinical and experimental results are consistent with the assumption, that HIV increases its reproductive capacity during the course of an individual HIV infection, and that this is associated with host-specific CD4 cell surface structures involved in the binding and entry of HIV into CD4-T cells [26–30,36,37]. Current studies indicate that host-specific genetic factors are involved and affect transmission and disease progression [36,38,39]. 2.3. Deterministic description of HIV evolution Evolution through generation and selection of random mutants is a process characterized by at least two inherently stochastic elements. One is the time span until a new mutation arises. The other is the magnitude of the resulting effect, in the present context the increase of the CD4-T cell infection rate. Since, as reported above, an enormous number of HIV mutants arise each day in an infected individual. And as the increase in the cell infection rate by any one mutant may be small, it is reasonable to model the evolution of HIV with a deterministic approach. To describe the effect of the increase of the within-host reproductive capacity of HIV we assume that the infection rate is the driving force for the permanent increase and selection of HIV-mutants. We define a dynamical variable K(t), that upon infection has an initial value that can be used to describe a subsequent steady increase of the HIV cell infection rate. Let j0 denote the average cell infection rate of HIV upon primary infection, then the term K(t)j0 denotes the average cell infection rate of the mixture of HIV mutants currently present in an infected person. The speed at which the factor K increases depends of course on the mutation rate of HIV in an infected individual, which in turn depends on the number of newly infected cells per day. With these assumptions one is led to consider the following modified simple model. Let X, Y and V be the population of susceptible, infected CD4+-T cells and virus, respectively, and K the variable for the increase of the infection rate as defined above. dX ð1Þ ¼ K lX j0 KVX ; dt dY ð2Þ ¼ j0 KVX dY ; dt dV ¼ bY cV ; ð3Þ dt dK ð4Þ ¼ xK V ðK max KÞ; dt where X(0) = X0, Y(0) = Y0, V(0) = V0, K(0) = K0 and j0KVX denotes the number of newly infected CD4+-T cells per day. Kmax is a theoretical maximum value that can be reached for the HIV evolutionary process within a host. The speed of the increase in K is determined by the model parameter xK. Other parameters of the model are: the immigration rate of new susceptible cells K, the natural death rate of susceptible cell l, the death rate of infected cells d, the production rate of infectious viral particles b, and the viral clearance rate c. The decisive difference to the classic virus-host model, is that the virus reproduction number R0 is a dynamic quantity R0 ðtÞ ¼ bj0 KðtÞX 0 ; dc ð5Þ 6 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 which increases monotonically towards the value R0 ¼ bj0 K max X 0 . dc ð6Þ If the average cell infection rate increases slowly compared to the turnover times of cells and virus, then the number of susceptible cells declines monotonically towards the value X0 X ¼ ð7Þ R0 and the number of virus particles and infectious cells increase monotonically towards the values V ¼ blð1 1=R0 Þ X0 dc ð8Þ and c Y ¼ V; b ð9Þ respectively. Within the present modelling approach this result provides the basis for explaining the progressive CD4+-T cell decline during HIV infection. 3. Model assumptions 3.1. CD4+-T lymphocytes as the main target cell population Although HIV may infect different types of cells, CD4+-T cells are the main target cell population [3,4]. These cells permanently migrate through the body but at any time about 98% of them are present in lymphoid tissue [40,41]. This means that only about 2% of the CD4+-T cell population is in blood. Consequently, most cell infections take place in lymphoid tissue. This raises the question whether measurements of viral load and infected cells during HIV-infection are representative for the HIV activity [4]. Replication of HIV in macrophages may play an important role, but their impact has been unclear. Moreover, the nature of other target cell groups and their role is unknown [4]. Therefore, we assume in the approach presented here that the effects of other cell groups besides the CD4+-T cells are negligible with respect to the dynamics of infection, although such subpopulations may play an important role as reservoirs for HIV. 3.2. CD4+-T cell count and turnover The pool of CD4+-T cells consist of many cell clones. Each clone is characterized by a specific T-cell receptor for interaction with antigen presenting cells. The current size of a specific CD4+-T cell clone in an individual presumably depends on the current degree of antigenic stimulation. The average number of CD4+-T cells in blood is 1000/mm3 [42]. The average blood amount in a 70 kg person is about 5 l. This implies that the number of CD4+-T cells in the blood is 5 · 109 (2% of the N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 7 total number [40,41]). About 1% of the weight of a 70 kg adult person is lymphoid tissue, which means that an adult bears about 700 g lymphoid tissue. When the total number of CD4+-T cells is 2.5 · 1011 (50 times the amount in blood) the number of cells in lymphoid tissue is about 2.45 · 1011 (98% of the total number). Thus, the number of CD4+-T cells is 3.5 · 108/g. The value 2.5 · 1011 represents the normal value of the CD4+-T cells in a healthy individual. Assuming that these cells have an average life span of about 50 days, which correspond to an average death rate of 0.02/day, to maintain a steady state of 2.5 · 1011 a production of 5 · 109 cells per day is required. This value is in line with data gained from short-term measurements of CD4+-T cell numbers in patients after receiving antiviral therapy [33,34]. Since the number of mature CD4+-T cells is maintained by cell division, the number of new cells per day depends on the number of existing cells and on the division rate per cell. If the division rate of the CD4+-T cells were constant, then declining numbers of CD4+-T cells would result in a decrease of the daily production of new CD4+-T cells. In this case it would be very difficult to explain the observed very high virus production during the final stage of disease. Therefore, it seems more plausible that the CD4+-T cell clones are activated to compensate for a loss of cells by increasing the cell division rate [43]. Thus, we assume that the number of newly produced CD4+-T cells per day remains constant. This implies a tremendous increase in the CD4+-T cells division rate throughout the course of an HIV infection [44]. 3.3. CD4+-T cells with different HIV susceptibility We assume that different CD4+-T cell clones possess different susceptibility to HIV infection. This implies that different coexisting HIV variants are adapted to infection of cells from different CD4+-T cell clones. There are indications that after primary infection the initial spread of HIV in the CD4+-T cell pool colapses before the immune response is activated [45]. We suspect this happens due to the limited number of available susceptible CD4+-T cells. The originally presented model [31,32] considering a single pool of CD4+-T cells is plausible with respect to the speed at which the immune response is activated after primary infection. A slightly delayed response is predicted to result in heavy exhaustion of CD4+-T cells which does not seem to be a realistic feature. Here we model the immune response slightly differently from the original model and incorporate the effect of the permanent increase of HIV cell susceptibility. This leads to more realistic description of the disease progression mechanism. To model the spread of HIV in hundreds or even thousands of specific CD4+-T cell clones would result in a highly complex modelling approach. To avoid this problem the following approach is adopted. The total pool of CD4+-T cells is divided into two subpopulations of clones: at any time t after primary infection X(t) denotes the current number of non-susceptible CD4+-T cells, whereas S(t) denotes the complementary number of susceptible CD4+-T cells. These numbers are considered as dynamical variables. One major difference to the model suggested by Phillips [45] is that this model is of provisional nature, since it does not investigate what happens to initially non-susceptible cells following primary infection. The time dependency in the numbers X and S is here postulated as resulting from new HIV variants with extended tropism for CD4+-T cells in previously non-susceptible cells. This is modeled in a similar way as the evolutionary increase of the CD4+-T cell infection rate in 3.2. 8 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 3.4. Production and elimination of productively infected CD4+-T cells The number of productively infected CD4+-T cells is denoted as Y(t). These are cells producing HIV-RNA and they arise mainly from susceptible CD4+-T cells according to the mass action law involving the number of prevalent virus particles and an average CD4+-T cell infection rate. The model does not further distinguish between direct cell-to-cell infection and infection by freely moving HIV particles. Once a CD4+-T cell has become an infectious cell, it is assumed to produce particles of one type of HIV variant. Thus, we exclude the possibility of superinfection of a cell with different HIV variants. There is evidence that HIV seeks to prevent this [46]. Each infectious cell is assumed to die at an intrinsic rate lY. Infectious cells are assumed to be removed, in addition, by the immune system at a rate dYZ(t), where Z(t) denotes the current antiHIV activity of the immune system. 3.5. Production and elimination of HIV HIV particles are assumed to be produced during the lifetime of an infectious cell at a constant rate b. This implies that during its life span an infected cell produces on average b/lY viral particles. Thus, the total number of particles produced per infectious cell is not a constant quantity but is increased by weakening of the cellular immune response against infectious cells. The model does not explicitly distinguish between intact and defective virus particles, but in reality the number of effectively infectious virus particles may be much smaller than the total number. HIV particles are assumed to be removed at an intrinsic rate lV. In addition, HIV particles are assumed to be removed by the immune system at a rate dVZ(t). Z(t) is the current effective antiHIV activity of the immune system. 3.6. Immune response against HIV Due to the complexity of the immune response quantitative information about the dynamics of interaction with viruses is very limited. This makes a detailed description of the immune response against HIV difficult. The present approach limited by postulating that upon infection with HIV the immune system activates an immune response which is independent from the amount of HIV present in the body. As soon as the anti-HIV activity is initiated remains as long as possible at high levels and gradually declines with the decline of the CD4+-T cells. The cellular immune response is considered to be the dominant effective part of the immune response at primary infection and during the full time course of the infection process [7]. Although the existence of neutralizing antibodies has been shown, there is no clear evidence of an effective contribution of the humoral immune response [47]. Modelling the immune response against HIV is actually to model the effective immune response, that predominantly is more accurately the cellular immune response. We term this as anti-HIV activity in the model. 3.7. Initial condition upon primary infection Upon primary infection the individuals CD4+-T cell population is supposed to be in a steady state with a certain number of CD4+-T cell which divide into two fractions of non-susceptible and susceptible cells with respect to HIV infection. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 9 Any individual is considered before infection with HIV to possess a number of CD4+ helper lymphocytes and a number of CD8 cytotoxic cells which are ready to start proliferation upon encounter with HIV derived antigens. Hence the anti-HIV activity is assigned some small initial value Z(0) at time t = 0, which marks the begin of infection. The initial infection dose is normally very small. We operate with V(0) = 1. Since the model is insensitive with respect to the initial dose [32] a wide range of initial doses can be considered. 4. The extended modelling approach 4.1. The model The original basic model of which the extension we introduce here has been presented and analyzed elsewhere [31,32] also with respect to the current estimates for certain parameters estimated in clinical and experimental studies [33,34,48,49]. Based on the description of fundamental mechanisms and the assumptions described above and considered in our approach the extended model includes the following dynamic variables: X S Y V Z P K total number of non-susceptible CD4+-T cells total number of susceptible CD4+-T cells total number of productively infected CD4+-T cells total number of HIV particles anti-HIV activity of the immune system fraction of new CD4+-T cells entering the pool of susceptible CD4+-T cells factor that describes the increase of the CD4+-T cell infection rate The model consists of a system of non-linear differential equations and reads dX ¼ að1 P Þ lX ; dt dS S ¼ aP lS j0 KV ; dt ðP þ dÞ dY S ¼ j0 KV ðlY þ dY ZÞY ; dt ðP þ dÞ dV ¼ bY ðlV þ dV ZÞV ; dt dZ ¼ hgðV Þ þ q½f ðS þ X ÞZ max Z; dt dP ¼ xP V ðP max P Þ; dt dK ¼ xK V ðK max KÞ; dt ð10Þ ð11Þ ð12Þ ð13Þ ð14Þ ð15Þ ð16Þ 10 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 with f ðN Þ ¼ 1 þ bc ; 1 þ ðbN 0 =NÞc ð17Þ and g(V) = V/(a + V) where N = X + S the total number of non-infected CD4+-T cells and N0 = X0 + S0, X(0) = X0, S(0) = S0, Y(0) = Y0, V(0) = V0, Z(0) = Z0, P(0) = P0, K(0) = K0 the initial conditions. The pool N of CD4+-T cells is divided into non-susceptible cells X and susceptible cells S, where P denotes the proportion of new CD4+-T cells entering the pool of susceptible cells and 1 P the proportion of new cells that still remain non-susceptible. The terms a(1 P) and aP represent the immigration rate of new non-susceptible or susceptible CD4+-T cells, respectively. These cells have a natural death rate l. The infection process between cells and viruses is described by a mass action law term (j0KVS/(P + d)). The part S/(P + d) of this term is of major importance because it describes the dynamic changes of the population of the susceptible cells expressed in the ratio between the susceptible cells population and the fraction of new cells entering the pool of susceptible cells over time t. P is decisive for the model dynamics, because depending on which fraction of cells are initially susceptible and how fast this fraction increases over time it substantially determines the course of infection and progression to disease. It indicates that many more cells can be attacked by the virus than can be combated by the immune system cells. Infected cells are generated at the same rate at which susceptible cells are infected and die at a rate lY. In addition they are removed due to the involvement of the anti-HIV activity at a rate dYZ. Virus particles are produced from infected cells at a rate b and are cleared at a rate lV. Also here an additional elimination factor, the anti-HIV activity is assumed (dVZ). The HIV specific immune response is modelled, due to the limited knowledge about its dynamics, by a general equation, which has the intrinsic features of an immune response and, more importantly, it is coupled to a time dependent decline of the CD4+-T cells. Thus, the HIV specific immune response is mounted at a rate q and this happens independent of the number of the present particles. The dependence of the immune response activation on the virus abundance is modelled by the function g(V), which assumes a sigmoid dependence of the immune response on V. Thus, upon primary infection, HIV will stimulate specific antibody producing and cytotoxic cells to proliferate at an intrinsic rate q[f(S + X)Zmax] until the immune system practically limits itself independent of the number of HIV particles and infected cells. The function f(N) is used to couple the activity of the immune system to the amount of uninfected cells available and, hence, to take into account the fact that the activity of the immune system becomes reduced if the number of CD4+-T cells is not sufficiently high. Also f(S + X) is assumed to represent a sigmoid dependence on uninfected cells with a Hill coefficient c. The fraction of new cells, that come from the pool of the susceptible cell, increases at a rate xP, which corresponds to the generation and selection of HIV mutants. Finally, the HIV infection rate increases at a rate xK per virus particle. 4.2. Qualitative features of the model Through its extension the model becomes more complicated so that a full mathematical analysis is not possible. At the same time though, it becomes more realistic and applicable. Neverthe- N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 11 less, even for the more complicated model it is still possible to define and calculate a virus reproduction number R0 : R0 ¼ bj0 KS . ðlY þ dY ZÞðlV þ dV ZÞðP þ dÞ ð18Þ Table 1 Variables and parameter values used in model Variables N X S Y V Z P K Total number of non-infected CD4+-T cells Number of non-susceptible CD4+-T cells Number of susceptible CD4+-T cells Number of productively infected CD4+-T cells Number of infectious HIV particles Anti-HIV activity Proportion of new susceptible CD4+-T cells Average infection rate of CD4+-T cells Parameter a l j0 lY dY b lV dV h q xP xK + CD4 -T cell production rate Natural death rate of uninfected cells Initial rate at which a HIV particle transforms a susceptible CD4+-T cell to a productively infected cell Death rate of productively infected cells Maximum additional elimination rate of productively infected cell through the anti-HIV activity HIV production rate from infected cells Clearance rate of infectious virus particles Maximum additional elimination rate of virus particles through the anti-HIV activity HIV dependent immune activation rate Autonomous immune activation rate Rate of increase of the fraction of susceptible cells by generation and selection of HIV mutants Rate of the increase of reproduction per virus particle Initial values References N0 = X0 + S0 = 2.5 · 1011 X0 = 0.7 · 2.5 · 1011 S0 = 0.3 · 2.5 · 1011 Y0 = 0 V0 = 1 Z0 = 106 P0 = 0.3 K0 = 1.0 [40,41] [40,41] [40,41] Values References 9 5 · 10 /day [33,34] 0.02/day [48] 1.0 · 1012/(particle Æ day) 0.6/day 0.6/day [33,49] 150 particles/(cell Æ day) 6/day 5/day [4] [33,49] 106/day 0.1/day 1.4 · 1014/(particle Æ day) 1.1 · 1015/(particle Æ day) Constants Zmax Pmax Kmax a b c d Values Maximum anti-HIV activity Maximum fraction of susceptible cells Maximum infection rate of susceptible cells per infected cell Constant Constant Constant Constant Derived quantities R0 R0 1.0 1.0 20 103 0.2 2.0 102 Values Basis reproduction number of HIV without anti-virus activity Basis reproduction number of HIV with maximum anti-virus activity 10 2.75 12 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 Eq. (18) has following meaning. If the variables S, Z, K would be kept fixed at the values S; Z; K; P an HIV particle generates R0 secondary particles. At the start of an HIV infection at time t = 0 the virus reproduction number therefore has the value: R0 ¼ bj0 S 0 ; ðlY lV ÞðP 0 þ dÞ ð19Þ and if the anti-HIV activity has fixed maximum value Z = Zmax = 1 then for K = 1 R0 ¼ bj0 S 0 . ðlY þ dY ÞðlV þ dV ÞðP 0 þ dÞ ð20Þ R0 is the initial reproduction number in the absence of any anti-HIV activity. The HIV reproduction number must be above one to establish persistent infection. More important is the reproduction number R 0 , in the presence of a fully activated anti-HIV activity and with maximum number of susceptible cells S0. The value of R 0 decides whether an individual is able to eliminate an HIV infection, which may rarely happen. In the case R 0 > 1 an HIV infection will persist, as is the case for the vast majority of infected persons. For parameter values which have been estimated in clinical studies or considered to be reasonable guesses the values of the various dynamic variables then move rather smoothly towards some final value. At any time the system is in a sort of quasi-equilibrium which gradually shifts. This means, if all evolutionary processes were stopped, all variables would remain constant afterwards. 4.3. Parameter values of the extended model Each term presented in the model has a specific biological interpretation. However, for only some of the corresponding parameters there are currently estimates from available clinical and experimental data. Those estimates were used for the numerical results. The remaining parameter values proposed below should be considered as reasonable choices (Table 1). 5. Model description of a typical HIV infection The numerical results presented here were generated with the parameter values of Table 1. These results describe the dynamics of the model for a typical HIV infection. In reality there is a wide range of HIV infection courses and the typical course of infection corresponds to a small fraction of patients. As the rounded numerical values for the model parameters in Table 1 indicate, this typical course has not been specifically fitted. Using variation of the parameter values the whole spectrum of observed individual HIV infection courses could be reproduced. 5.1. Typical course of infection Fig. 1(a) and (b) correspond to the typical infection courses know from the literature [1]. The model can reproduce the characteristic phases of HIV infection, namely primary infection during the first few weeks, the long asymptomatic period and the transition to AIDS. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 12 10 0.8 0.6 V Y/(X+S+Y), (X+S+Y)/No, Z 1 11 10 0.4 0.2 0 (a) 13 10 0 2 4 6 8 Time (years) 10 10 12 0 2 4 (b) 6 8 Time (years) 10 12 12 10 10 V 10 8 10 0 (c) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 (X+S+Y)/No Fig. 1. (a) Typical clinical course of HIV infection predicted by the model with the parameter values from Table 1. Dashed-line curve describes the anti-HIV activity Z; solid line represents the total CD4+-T cells (X + S + Y)/N0 standardized to the interval [0, 1]. The dashed–dotted line represents the fraction of infected cells Y/(X + S + Y). The parallel to the x-axis indicates the value of 200/mm3 CD4+-T cells that marks progression to AIDS. (b) The dynamics of the virus population and (c) trajectory between viral population and T cells that correspond to figures (a) and (b). During primary infection there is a strong viremia, that causes the first decline of the CD4+-T cells. Right after and partially simultaneously with the mounting of the anti-HIV activity virus levels sharply decrease. The CD4+-T cell population then rebounds to a certain degree and the anti-HIV activity reaches its maximum activity. For about 10 years the virus load is slightly suppressed and slowly increases and the infection shows the characteristics of a persistent infection in the presence of a protective anti-HIV activity. Nevertheless the number of the CD4+-T cells declines more or less linearly. This is the most striking feature of HIV infection. Fig. 1(c) shows the trajectory of the viral population V and the CD4+-T cells ((X + S + Y)/N0) and demonstrates the strong viremia during the fist weeks of infection. The effective immune response increases quickly and remains at high levels for several years. After about 10 years the CD4+-T cell number drops below the level of 20% of the normal value before infection, which is the definition to disease progression AIDS (Fig. 1(a)) [50]. This time 14 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 12 10 0.8 10 0.6 10 V Y/(X+S+Y), (X+S+Y)/No, Z 1 0.4 8 0.2 0 10 0 (a) 50 100 Time (days) 150 0 (b) 50 100 Time ( days) 150 Fig. 2. (a) Anti-HIV activity Z (dashed-line curve), total CD4+-T cells (solid line) and infected (dash–dot line) cells during primary infection. All parameter values as in Table 1. (b) Viremia during primary infection. All parameter values as in Table 1. the immune system is no more able to control the infection. According to the model results the immune system holds only 50% of its potential, which is measured through the anti-HIV activity Z, and it declines rapidly to 10% two years later. Thus, the immune system is also not able to efficiently control other opportunistic infections. Due to the decline of the anti-HIV activity it is possible for HIV to replicate and reach concentrations that are even higher than those of primary infection. Because of the extreme pathological conditions that govern this stage of disease it might be that the model loses its applicability for the very late part of the third phase of disease. 5.2. Primary infection Numerical results of the model show that the dynamics of primary infection (Fig. 2(a) and (b)) is in line with the clinical observations [51,52]. After the start of infection the number of HIV particles grows exponentially and reaches after 14 days a maximum value of about 5 · 1011 particles. This virus load drops by 2.8-log units within 4 weeks. These values are close to those observed [7]. The HIV viremia causes a temporary reduction of the CD4+-T cells, which then recover and remain at a lower level than before infection. The anti-HIV activity increases fast but it is not the only reason for the break down of the viremia. Also the limitation of available target CD4+-T cells can be responsible [45]. This is part of the intrinsic evolutionary dynamics of the model. 5.3. Evolutionary dynamics The dynamics of the intra-host HIV evolution is represented through the variables P and K (Figs. 3 and 4). Variable P determines which proportion of new CD4+-T cells enters the pool of susceptible CD4+-T cells. In our standard numerical calculation it increases monotonically over time and reaches a value of 0.96 after 12 years with the parameter values of the typical simulation. The dynamics of infection change drastically the higher the initial value for P is (Fig. 3). For low values of P, indicating that the fraction of susceptible T cells is small at the beginning, the N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 15 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 (X+S+Y)/No 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 Time (years) 8 10 12 Fig. 3. CD4+-T cell counts for two different initial values (P = 0.1 and P = 0.8) of the proportion of the new CD4+-T cells coming into the pool of susceptible cells. For (P = 0.8) progression to disease is fast. All other parameter values as in Table 1. fraction of CD4+-T cells remains for a long time at high level, and after 12 years it is still at a level of about 50% of its initial value. If the fraction of susceptible cells is large a fast progression to disease is expected. This is interpreted to mean that through generation and selection of mutants HIV increases its range of CD4+-T cell tropism over more and more CD4+-T cell clones, until after 12 years almost all clones are equally susceptible to infection by HIV. This is a completely new postulation of evolutionary dynamics which cannot be tested with available data yet. However, there is recent clinical work in support of this hypothesis [53]. It is known that HIV variants with different phenotypes evolve in HIV infected persons [54,55], and that an antigen driven expansion of T cell subpopulations takes part [56,57]. The variable K represents the factor, by which the infection rate of the CD4+-T cells increases by generation and selection of HIV mutants. This factor increases slowly over years. Its growth accelerates when the viral production during the third phase of the course of infection rises again substantially. This effect corresponds to the observed intra-host evolution of HIV variants with increasing replication capacity [26–30]. Fig. 4 shows how the HIV reproduction number increases in the population of susceptible CD4+-T cells over time. The decline of the reproduction number during the first months can be explained by the activity of the immune response. After this activation reaches its maximum 16 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 45 40 HIV reproduction number 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) Fig. 4. Changes in the value of the viral reproduction number during the course of infection. level the reproduction number again increases quickly. At the end of the infection process an exponential increase is given as disease progression is reached. 6. Model predictions about determinants of disease progression 6.1. Initial dose Fig. 5 shows that the model results are independent from the initial dose. For Y(0) = 0 and V(0) = 1 or Y(0) = 100 and V(0) = 106 the model predicts very small differences during primary infection which disappear after short time. After 4 months the curves are almost identical. 6.2. HIV evolutionary speed The parameters xP and xK, which determine the pace of the intra-host evolution of HIV are essential determinants of the form and the duration of the infection. Fig. 6 shows three individual courses with different values for xK. The CD4+-T cell reduction can look similar for several years but the ultimate fate may be substantially different. A 5-fold reduction of the evolutionary speed used in the typical simulation causes a prolongation of the life span of more than 2 years. Correspondingly, a 5-fold increase results in an acceleration towards disease progression. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 17 1 0.95 (X+S+Y)/No 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Time (days) Fig. 5. Total CD4+-T cell counts for Y0 = 0, V0 = 1 (solid line) and Y0 = 100, V0 = 106 (dashed line) during primary infection. Stronger effect can be observed in Fig. 7 for the parameter xP. Both figures indicate that combination of the two parameters xK and xP can generate an enormous repertoire of CD4+-T cell curves. Figs. 6 and 7 implicate that the effect of the rate of the fraction of susceptible cells by generation and selection of HIV mutants is of major importance. This makes the combinatorial effect of K and P crucial for the course of the infection. These results demonstrate the variability of the CD4+-T cell counts during infection in several infected individuals and the flexibility of the model to produce these results. 6.3. Initial infection rate Infectious dose does not seem to play an important role, according to the model predictions. However, the model points to the initial CD4+-T cell infection rate as a main determinant of the infection and disease progression. This value depends on the state of the infected individual, since a highly activated CD4+-T cell pool should favor CD4+-T cell infection. But the value can also depend on the composition of the infection inoculum of HIV variants. Fig. 8 shows changes due to different R0 of which the different values were based on changes on the initial infection rate value. The upper curve of Fig. 8 corresponds to an R0 = 10, which is the value for the simulation of the typical case. The curve in the middle corresponds to a value of R0 = 15 and the lower curve to 18 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 (X+S+Y)/No 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) Fig. 6. Total CD4+-T cell counts for xK (middle), 5xK (lower) and xK/5 (upper). a value R0 = 20. Depending on the value of R0 the effect on the CD4+-T cell decline and the course of infection is substantial. R0 = 15 would lead to progression to AIDS after 8.5 years. 6.4. Initial CD4+-T-cell count Based on the model predictions, the impact of the initial count of the CD4+-T cell pool on the infection process is enormous. Fig. 9 demonstrates the difference between three different initial cell numbers for a period of 12 years. For an initial value of 1200 cells per mm3 a rapid progression to disease is predicted. A value of 800 cells per mm3 leads to a much smoother decline of the CD4+-T cell count. Since the initial number of CD4+-T cells in healthy persons is highly variable this prediction would be of major clinical importance. 7. Discussion An extended model of a previous approach [31,32] on a theory for the within-host dynamics of HIV infection is presented, analyzed and numerically explored. The objective of the presented theory on AIDS pathogenesis is the assessment of the essential mechanisms underlying this process. The model reproduces some of the most striking features of HIV infection. The model includes N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 19 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 (X+S+Y)/No 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) Fig. 7. Total CD4+-T cells for xP (middle), 2xP (lower) and xP/2 (upper). terms and parameters that enable description and prediction of biological mechanisms. The extended model allows a more realistic description of the HIV infection process and corrects some artefacts of the original simpler model. The model is based on the assumptions that HIV predominantly infects CD4+-T cells and that the generation and selection of HIV mutants is towards higher reproduction capacity. The model describes a persistent infection, which on a time scale of years, changes its intrinsic dynamics through a mechanism that indirectly considers the effects of HIV variability. The model extension is the incorporation of the tendency of the virus to increase its target cell pool, in other words, the increasing cell tropism over time. The equation for the immune response represents only a general description since immune dynamics are not well understood. The equation produces the dynamics of the immune response by taking into account the initial dependence of the immune response on antigen availability. Further autonomous immune activation is considered and is coupled to the amount of T cells. The effects of several factors on the dynamics of infection could be described. For instance, the negligible impact of the initial dose, but the importance of the intra-host evolution of HIV. The rate at which new CD4+-T cell clones are included in the target pool through tropism seems to be of substantial influence for disease progression. The model shows that the initial infection rate, which could also be represented with the initial reproduction number as well as the base line count of CD4+-T cells are essential determinants of 20 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 (X+S+Y)/No 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) Fig. 8. Total CD4+-T cell counts for R0 = 10, 15, 20 (from the top to the bottom). the infection process. The latter prediction might seem a bit puzzling. It is based on the idea that the greater the pool of susceptible cells the more likely is that the virus spreads faster because it easier to find uninfected cells. This has been described for the initial phase of the HIV infection period also elsewhere [45]. In addition, analysis of the HIV Swiss Cohort Study data showed that higher baseline CD4+-T cell count correlates with faster subsequent decline of the count (V. Müller, personal communication). Although the date of infection of many patients in this study could be determined only approximately, the results support the model prediction. Further clinical investigation is needed to test this aspect. A major difference between the model presented here and other approaches is that the model provides a description of all phases of HIV disease progression in observed time scales based on the most important components of the infection process, including the anti-HIV specific immune response. Although the numerical solutions and the results presented here need further elaboration, it should be emphasized that most of the results are difficult to reproduce with the other existing modelling approaches. One reason is that only a few models deal with the issue of the mechanisms of disease progression. The vast majority of the models focus rather on treatment strategies using approaches specifically developed for the short term dynamics of the therapeutic interventions (see [23,24] for reviews). The parameter values for the numerical results of the model were employed from estimates from clinical and experimental studies. Some parameter values though were reasonable choices. N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 21 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 (X+S+Y)/No 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) Fig. 9. Total CD4+-T cell counts after a reduction of the initial T cell number shown in Table 1 by 20% (upper curve) or an increase of the same number by 20% (lower curve). The numerical parameter values used are rounded values and no effort for a specific fit was made. It should be possible to estimate the unknown parameters from combined data obtained under a variety of different conditions and after various interventions. It would be of major help if clinicians could report more precise longitudinal data from observations on individual patients. One of the most valuable uses of modelling is to indicate which parameters are most important in understanding the infection process. It is essential that clinicians collect the data needed for the identification of these parameters. Other effects that indicate the predictive power of the model are outlined. Recent studies [33] showed that the turnover rate of susceptible CD4+-T cells is relevant for disease progression. The model could test the plausibility of different turnover rate estimates. The model could explore the effects of the immune response on the disease progression. For instance, the strength of the immune response is associated with the speed of activating the immune response. However, the model indicates that the speed of activation might be not so important when considering the full course of the infection. Latently infected cells, or other target cell subpopulations could be also incorporated and investigated with the model along with indirect cell destruction and co-infection processes. Differentiation between latently and actively infected cells could be of major interest since antigen-driven T cell activation seems to play a major role in the HIV infection process. A model for the pathogenesis of AIDS that investigates the role of antigenic stimulation and the associated mechanisms in 22 N.I. Stilianakis, D. Schenzle / Mathematical Biosciences 199 (2006) 1–25 regulating the pathogenesis of HIV disease could successfully predict some of the key features of disease progression [58]. Distinction in subpopulation of different types of CD4+-T cells would be another possibility to make the model more realistic. However, the role of the each subgroup and its contribution in the pathogenesis of AIDS has yet to be clarified. Thus, integration of such subgroups would increase both the complexity and the uncertainty of the model. Although superinfection is possible and has been observed it still seems to be a rare event [59]. This indicates the natural immunity induced by primary infection can make it difficult for a superinfecting virus to establish itself. We ignored superinfection at this stage since such cases are small portion of the infected population. The deterministic approach presented here is appropriate to analyze certain basic mechanisms of the HIV infection process. However, there is also a need to understand the individual infection courses of infected persons that incorporates of stochastic effects. Numeric simulation with the generation of random numbers has been presented elsewhere [32]. This approach could be expanded to explore the whole spectrum of expected variability in parameter values. For instance, based on such stochastic effects a plausible explanation for the variability of the incubation period to AIDS can be proposed [32]. Other stochastic aspects like the prognostic value of the CD4+-T cell count or that of the viral load or the correlation between CD4+-T cell count could also be investigated. This and the development of optimal treatment strategies using appropriate modifications of the model to account for treatment interventions and associated effects such as drug resistance development are subject of current work. There is no doubt that the interaction between HIV and the human immune system is a highly dynamic and multifactorial process. Therefore, it is essential to base therapeutic interventions on a more solid theoretical ground than it has been the case until now. Treatment effects strongly depend on the patients current health state which often is not particularly well defined. For most treatment regimes it is unclear whether the patients will benefit in the long term. Therefore, although the statistical analysis of clinical data is useful its value to understand mechanisms is rather limited. The development of realistic mathematical models with prognostic power at the individual level is needed. 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