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Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop Vienna, Austria, May 11-12, 2016 Climate change and adaptation options for Albania’s coastal areas Third National Communication results Eglantina Demiraj Bruci , Prof. dr. V&A Technical Coordinator Climate Change Programme, UNDP Existing knowledge on Climate Change Adaptation Main Publications/project reports • Albania’s First and Second National Communications to UNFCCC, (MoE 2009, 2012) • Sutton, William R., Jitendra P. Srivastava, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strze˛pek, and Peter Droogers. 2013. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. World Bank Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0047-4 • Project Synthesis Report ‘Identification and Implementation of Adaptation Response Measures in the Drini – Mati River Deltas (DMRD)’ (GEF/GoA/UNDP, 2013) • CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector. Report No. 53331-ALB, December 2009 Ongoing Projects • Albania’s Third National Communication to UNFCCC • Climate Change Adaptation in Western Balkans’, GIZ supported (Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) • ECRAN • Different literature sources Some key results from ‘Albania’s Third National Communication to UNFCCC’ • Climate projections • Key impacts for different sectors • Potential adaptation options • Gaps/needs knowledge TNC - coastal zone • Most vulnerable (floods/drought/storm surges), prone to erosion • 12% of the country surface, 1/3 of population (36.3%) ( Census 2011) • Vulnerable sectors: • • • • • Agriculture Tourism Population Health Protected areas (Kune-Vain, Karavasta, Narta and Butrint) – globally significant Projections - Temperature variability and likely changes 2.5 2.50 Anomalies, Vlora 2.00 1.5 1.00 0.50 1.0 0.00 0.5 -0.50 precip temp 5 per. Mov. Avg. (precip) 2007 2003 1999 1995 1991 1987 1983 1979 1975 1971 1967 1963 1959 1955 1951 1947 1943 1939 -1.00 1935 0.0 1931 precipitation 1.50 temperature (°C) 2.0 5 per. Mov. Avg. (temp) Temperature and precipitation variability Clear increasing trend, new climate normal Temperature projections (aver. scenario, IPCC AR4, SRES family) Observations at ‘2010 reach projections for ‘2030 Max temp projections, diferent RCPs Projections Average temperature projections, SRES Average temperature projections Years Annual 2050 1.7 (1.3 to 2.2) 2100 3.2 (2.4 to 4.1) Winter 1.2 (1.1 to 1.4) 2.4 (1.9 to 2.7) Summer 2.5 (2.1 to 2.8) 5.3 (4.6 to 6.0) Year Winter Summer Scenarios RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 2050 1.2 (0.7-1.8) 2.0 (1.2-3.0) 0.9 (0.5 -1.5) 1.6 (1.0-2.6) 1.5 (1.0-2.1) 2.8 (1.7-3.8) Projections - maximum temperature baseline Change in return periods, 3 consecutive days with absolute max temperature Decrease in return period RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Summer average maximum temperature, baseline and expected by 2050 Projections - precipitation, average scenario, SRES 1961-1990 2050 2100 Figure 4.13: Annual precipitation, baseline and expected by 2050 and 2100 years 2050 2100 Annual Winter -8.46 (-56.0 to 47.4) -10 (-27.9 to 7.7) -18.13 (-89.7 to 94.9) -18.1 (-55.8 to 19.6) Summer -19.7(-24.1 to -15.3) -50.4 (-59.4 to -41.3) Decreasing seasonal and annual trends High variability (significance levels 5% and 95%) Projections – precipitation (2°C world) (4°C world) Decreasing seasonal and annual trends, (except. Winter), significant decrease in return period for heavy precipitations Projections - Sealevel rise SourceWorld Bank. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal. Washington, DC: World Bank. Key impacts Runoff changes (%) Runoff changes, aver. scen SRES 2030 Winte r 2050 2080 2100 -6.4 (-19.1 to -11.7 (-32.6 -17.3 (-50.4 -23.0 (-60.2 +5.8) to +11.3) to +23.9) to +29.5) Summ -14.6 (-22.5 -27.1 (-58.0 -54.2 (-78.4 -63.6 (-82.7 er to -10.5) to -22.3) to -45.6) to -63.6) • Increase of frequency of extreme events (heat waves, drought, heavy rains, max flows and floods, storm surges, etc.) • Decrease in seasonal and annual flows • Impact on hydroenergy production • Energy demand: decrease in winter for heating and increase in summer for cooling • Penetration of salt water into coastal acquifers • Increase in needs for drinking water supply and water for irrigation Key impacts Biodiversity • Intensification of erosion (beaches and dunes) • Coastal ecosystem degradation (sandy dunes dunat, lagoons, weltlands and river deltas) • Penetration of salty water into fresh water systems - impact in water trophic conditions; • Impacts on hydrodynamic regimes; • Impacts on coastal biological communities; • Spread of alien invasive species Impacts due to sealevel rise Agriculture areas threatened from flooding, north coastal Area Source: DMRD project Key impacts - Agriculture • Likely changes in temperature and precipitation patterns: • extention of vegetation period • Decrease in yield and crop damages. • Increased irrigation demand • pests Tourism Population& settlements Health Crop yield reduction for the mean time under scenario “without irrigation”. Potential adaptation options Coastal Adaptation Plan 67 proposed potential adaptation measures from different sectors. I. Green adaptation options Measures aiming at raising the resilience of ecosystems and their services. II. Grey adaptation options Invasive and/or energy intensive technical and construction measures aiming mainly at the protection of infrastructures or people. III. Soft adaptations enhancing capacity building Non-invasive spatial planning measures and measures to enhance knowledge transfer/raising adaptive capacity. IV. Fiscal adaptation measures Measures aiming at saving critical resources/protect values by adaptation (e.g. water or public/private infrastructures) by introducing measures like payment for ecosystem services (PES) or risk transfer mechanisms (e.g. insurances). Prioritization criteria: potential partnership, time frame, principle of additionality, financial indicative cost and ‘WinWin’ Solutions. Examples of adaptation measures • Coastal Erosion: • Eliminate factors that exacerbate erosion (remove Drini breakwater) • Beach restoration to slow erosion rates (beach nourishment Kune Zone) • Structural methods of sand retention (groynes Kune Zone) • Water Exchange: • Structural methods to restrict accumulation (terminal groynes Merxhani Lagoon) • Regular maintenance dredging (Zaje-Ceka Lagoons) • Control discharge from pumping stations (all lagoons) • Adaptation to Sea-level Rise: • Restoration of agricultural areas to restore wetland functioning • Maintenance and upgrade of flood embankments Category No of Measure as identified from sector reports Measures Actions Location SHORT TERM MEASURES SOFT SOFT 59 Support to Research and Monitoring on data collection and assessment for physical, biological and social environment across the coastal area, with regard to ecosystems and biodiversity 66 Develop and enforce relevant legislation and policies on hydrological regime and water resources • Design and application of models to estimate the impact of past or coastal area/ future climate hazards on crops, livestock, ecosystems and biodiversity entire country Provide modern devices to measure and monitor: o sea level o progression of the sea toward the land (marine erosion) o difference between tides and ebb –tides o quantity and quality of depositions • Promote engagement to facilitate enforcement of existing legislation coastal area/ • Political measures (advisory panels, decrees, rules, laws, norms) entire country enforcing the long term sustainable implementation of the adaptation measured proposed • Restrict or prohibit development in erosion zones • Development of a insurance sector to promptly mitigate losses • Develop a water information database and monitoring network for coastal zone and river system • Incorporate sea level rise into planning for new infrastructure (e.g., sewage systems) • Integrate climate change scenarios into water supply system Category No of Measure as identified from sector reports Combined (GREEN&Soft ) GREY Measures 10 Measures in the Protected Areas (PAs) 3 Improve Water Management Actions • Improve the management of Location coastal protected areas • Forest fires prevention and warning systems • Introduce monitoring system in protected areas • Improve the water exchange in lagoons • Biodiversity restoration activities • Improve the lagoon systems • Implement monitoring plans of protected areas Velipoje-Shkoder, Drini-Mati, Durresi Bay, Myzeqe Field, Vjosa River Mouth • Improve irrigation and drainage systems • Optimize water usage for irrigation • Enhance flood plain management (wetland management) • Drop irrigation systems and use water-efficient crop varieties • Construct levees • Water harvesting and efficiency improvements • Intercropping to maximize use of moisture Velipoje-Shkoder, Drini-Mati, Durresi Bay, Myzeqe Field, Vjosa River Mouth Category GREY No of Measure as identified from sector reports 1 Measures Measures related to the protection of Farming Ventures/ Protective Efforts/ Technological Processes Actions • Hail protection systems (cloud seeding, nets) • Install plant protection belts • Lime dust on greenhouses to reduce heat • Vegetative barriers, fences, windbreaks • Move crops to greenhouses • Smoke curtains to address late spring and early fall frosts • Build or rehabilitate forest belts • Improve input supply (seeds, fertilizers etc.) • Change fallow and mulching practices • Change in cultivation techniques • Conservation tillage • Crop diversification • Crop rotation • Heat- and drought-tolerant crops/varieties/hybrids • Increased input of organic matter to maintain yield • Manual weeding • More turning over of the soil • Strip cropping, contour bounding (or ploughing) and farming • Switch to crops, varieties appropriate to temp, precipitation Location Velipoje-Shkoder, Drini-Mati, Durresi Bay, Myzeqe Field, Vjosa River Mouth New challenge - integrating CCA and resilient sustainable development CCA issues are integrated in strategies/development plans (drafts): • Cross-cutting Strategy for Environment,2015-2020 (MoE) • Integrated management of water resources (MARDWA) • Integrated cross-sectorial plan for the coast - 2015 (NATP) • National Adaptation Plan process (GIZ, MoE) • New municipal development plans encouraged to address CC issues Finalized docs: • CC and Health Strategy (MoH, 2013) • Policy Paper: Climate Change Adaptation in the Drini Mati River Delta and Beyond (MoE/UNDP, 2013) Knowledge gaps • Observations needs: • Gaps in observational network (soil moisture, evapotranspiration, groundwater, short series of solar radiation and wind) • Monitoring of climate related impacts in different sectors • Research needs (impact assessment) • How to: • Understand climate projections and expected impacts: uncertainties in modeling climate variability esp. precipitation, • respond sustainably to CC extreme events (’bridging’ DRR and CC adaptation) • Capacities to evaluate costs and benefits, potentials and limitations need to be built/improved Thank you! Draft TNC for comments http://www.mjedisi.gov.al/al/programi/sherbime-dhe-transparence/transparencedhe-pjesemarrje