Download Climate change and adaptation options for Albania`s coastal areas

Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop
Vienna, Austria, May 11-12, 2016
Climate change and adaptation options for
Albania’s coastal areas
Third National Communication results
Eglantina Demiraj Bruci , Prof. dr.
V&A Technical Coordinator
Climate Change Programme, UNDP
Existing knowledge on Climate Change Adaptation
Main Publications/project reports
• Albania’s First and Second National Communications to
UNFCCC, (MoE 2009, 2012)
• Sutton, William R., Jitendra P. Srivastava, James E.
Neumann, Kenneth M. Strze˛pek, and Peter Droogers.
2013. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania’s Agricultural
Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and
Adaptation Options. World Bank Study. Washington, DC:
World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0047-4
• Project Synthesis Report ‘Identification and
Implementation of Adaptation Response Measures in the
Drini – Mati River Deltas (DMRD)’ (GEF/GoA/UNDP, 2013)
• CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS An Assessment of
Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in
Albania’s Power Sector. Report No. 53331-ALB, December
2009
Ongoing Projects
• Albania’s Third National
Communication to
UNFCCC
• Climate Change
Adaptation in Western
Balkans’, GIZ supported
(Albania, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Serbia)
• ECRAN
• Different literature
sources
Some key results from ‘Albania’s Third National
Communication to UNFCCC’
• Climate projections
• Key impacts for different sectors
• Potential adaptation options
• Gaps/needs knowledge
TNC - coastal zone
• Most vulnerable
(floods/drought/storm surges), prone
to erosion
• 12% of the country surface, 1/3 of
population (36.3%) ( Census 2011)
• Vulnerable sectors:
•
•
•
•
•
Agriculture
Tourism
Population
Health
Protected areas (Kune-Vain, Karavasta,
Narta and Butrint) – globally significant
Projections - Temperature variability and likely changes
2.5
2.50
Anomalies, Vlora
2.00
1.5
1.00
0.50
1.0
0.00
0.5
-0.50
precip
temp
5 per. Mov. Avg. (precip)
2007
2003
1999
1995
1991
1987
1983
1979
1975
1971
1967
1963
1959
1955
1951
1947
1943
1939
-1.00
1935
0.0
1931
precipitation
1.50
temperature (°C)
2.0
5 per. Mov. Avg. (temp)
Temperature and precipitation variability
Clear increasing trend, new climate normal
Temperature projections (aver. scenario, IPCC AR4, SRES family)
Observations at ‘2010 reach projections for ‘2030
Max temp projections, diferent RCPs
Projections
Average temperature projections, SRES
Average temperature projections
Years
Annual
2050
1.7 (1.3 to 2.2)
2100
3.2 (2.4 to 4.1)
Winter
1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)
2.4 (1.9 to 2.7)
Summer
2.5 (2.1 to 2.8)
5.3 (4.6 to 6.0)
Year
Winter
Summer
Scenarios
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
2050
1.2 (0.7-1.8)
2.0 (1.2-3.0)
0.9 (0.5 -1.5)
1.6 (1.0-2.6)
1.5 (1.0-2.1)
2.8 (1.7-3.8)
Projections - maximum temperature
baseline
Change in return periods, 3 consecutive days with
absolute max temperature
Decrease in return period
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
Summer average maximum temperature, baseline and
expected by 2050
Projections - precipitation,
average scenario, SRES
1961-1990
2050
2100
Figure 4.13: Annual precipitation, baseline and expected by 2050 and 2100
years
2050
2100
Annual
Winter
-8.46 (-56.0 to 47.4)
-10 (-27.9 to 7.7)
-18.13 (-89.7 to 94.9)
-18.1 (-55.8 to 19.6)
Summer
-19.7(-24.1 to -15.3)
-50.4 (-59.4 to -41.3)
Decreasing seasonal and annual
trends
High variability (significance levels
5% and 95%)
Projections – precipitation
(2°C world)
(4°C world)
Decreasing seasonal and annual trends,
(except. Winter), significant decrease in return
period for heavy precipitations
Projections - Sealevel rise
SourceWorld Bank. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate
Normal. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Key impacts
Runoff changes (%)
Runoff changes, aver. scen SRES
2030
Winte
r
2050
2080
2100
-6.4 (-19.1 to -11.7 (-32.6 -17.3 (-50.4 -23.0 (-60.2
+5.8)
to +11.3)
to +23.9)
to +29.5)
Summ -14.6 (-22.5 -27.1 (-58.0 -54.2 (-78.4 -63.6 (-82.7
er
to -10.5)
to -22.3)
to -45.6)
to -63.6)
• Increase of frequency of extreme events (heat
waves, drought, heavy rains, max flows and floods,
storm surges, etc.)
• Decrease in seasonal and annual flows
• Impact on hydroenergy production
• Energy demand: decrease in winter for heating
and increase in summer for cooling
• Penetration of salt water into coastal acquifers
• Increase in needs for drinking water supply and
water for irrigation
Key impacts
Biodiversity
• Intensification of erosion (beaches and
dunes)
• Coastal ecosystem degradation (sandy
dunes dunat, lagoons, weltlands and river
deltas)
• Penetration of salty water into fresh water
systems - impact in water trophic
conditions;
• Impacts on hydrodynamic regimes;
• Impacts on coastal biological communities;
• Spread of alien invasive species
Impacts
due to sealevel rise
Agriculture areas
threatened from
flooding, north coastal
Area
Source: DMRD project
Key impacts - Agriculture
• Likely changes in temperature
and precipitation patterns:
• extention of vegetation period
• Decrease in yield and crop
damages.
• Increased irrigation demand
• pests
Tourism
Population& settlements
Health
Crop yield reduction for the mean time under scenario “without irrigation”.
Potential adaptation options
Coastal Adaptation Plan
67 proposed potential adaptation measures from different sectors.
I.
Green adaptation
options
Measures aiming at raising the resilience of ecosystems and their services.
II.
Grey adaptation
options
Invasive and/or energy intensive technical and construction measures aiming
mainly at the protection of infrastructures or people.
III. Soft adaptations
enhancing
capacity building
Non-invasive spatial planning measures and measures to enhance knowledge
transfer/raising adaptive capacity.
IV. Fiscal adaptation
measures
Measures aiming at saving critical resources/protect values by adaptation (e.g.
water or public/private infrastructures) by introducing measures like payment for
ecosystem services (PES) or risk transfer mechanisms (e.g. insurances).
Prioritization criteria: potential partnership, time frame,
principle of additionality, financial indicative cost and ‘WinWin’ Solutions.
Examples of adaptation measures
• Coastal Erosion:
• Eliminate factors that exacerbate erosion (remove Drini
breakwater)
• Beach restoration to slow erosion rates (beach nourishment Kune
Zone)
• Structural methods of sand retention (groynes Kune Zone)
• Water Exchange:
• Structural methods to restrict accumulation (terminal groynes
Merxhani Lagoon)
• Regular maintenance dredging (Zaje-Ceka Lagoons)
• Control discharge from pumping stations (all lagoons)
• Adaptation to Sea-level Rise:
• Restoration of agricultural areas to restore wetland functioning
• Maintenance and upgrade of flood embankments
Category
No of
Measure as
identified
from sector
reports
Measures
Actions
Location
SHORT TERM MEASURES
SOFT
SOFT
59 Support to Research
and Monitoring on
data collection and
assessment for
physical, biological
and social
environment across
the coastal area, with
regard to ecosystems
and biodiversity
66 Develop and enforce
relevant legislation
and policies on
hydrological regime
and water resources
• Design and application of models to estimate the impact of past or
coastal area/
future climate hazards on crops, livestock, ecosystems and biodiversity entire country
Provide modern devices to measure and monitor:
o sea level
o progression of the sea toward the land (marine erosion)
o difference between tides and ebb –tides
o quantity and quality of depositions
• Promote engagement to facilitate enforcement of existing legislation coastal area/
• Political measures (advisory panels, decrees, rules, laws, norms)
entire country
enforcing the long term sustainable implementation of the adaptation
measured proposed
• Restrict or prohibit development in erosion zones
• Development of a insurance sector to promptly mitigate losses
• Develop a water information database and monitoring network for
coastal zone and river system
• Incorporate sea level rise into planning for new infrastructure (e.g.,
sewage systems)
• Integrate climate change scenarios into water supply system
Category
No of
Measure as
identified
from sector
reports
Combined
(GREEN&Soft
)
GREY
Measures
10 Measures in the
Protected Areas (PAs)
3
Improve Water
Management
Actions
• Improve the management of
Location
coastal protected areas
• Forest fires prevention and warning systems
• Introduce monitoring system in protected areas
• Improve the water exchange in lagoons
• Biodiversity restoration activities
• Improve the lagoon systems
• Implement monitoring plans of protected areas
Velipoje-Shkoder,
Drini-Mati,
Durresi Bay,
Myzeqe Field,
Vjosa River
Mouth
• Improve irrigation and drainage systems
• Optimize water usage for irrigation
• Enhance flood plain management (wetland management)
• Drop irrigation systems and use water-efficient crop varieties
• Construct levees
• Water harvesting and efficiency improvements
• Intercropping to maximize use of moisture
Velipoje-Shkoder,
Drini-Mati,
Durresi
Bay,
Myzeqe
Field,
Vjosa
River
Mouth
Category
GREY
No of
Measure as
identified
from sector
reports
1
Measures
Measures related to
the protection of
Farming Ventures/
Protective Efforts/
Technological
Processes
Actions
• Hail protection systems (cloud seeding, nets)
• Install plant protection belts
• Lime dust on greenhouses to reduce heat
• Vegetative barriers, fences, windbreaks
• Move crops to greenhouses
• Smoke curtains to address late spring and early fall frosts
• Build or rehabilitate forest belts
• Improve input supply (seeds, fertilizers etc.)
• Change fallow and mulching practices
• Change in cultivation techniques
• Conservation tillage
• Crop diversification
• Crop rotation
• Heat- and drought-tolerant crops/varieties/hybrids
• Increased input of organic matter to maintain yield
• Manual weeding
• More turning over of the soil
• Strip cropping, contour bounding (or ploughing) and farming
• Switch to crops, varieties appropriate to temp, precipitation
Location
Velipoje-Shkoder,
Drini-Mati, Durresi
Bay, Myzeqe Field,
Vjosa River Mouth
New challenge - integrating CCA and resilient
sustainable development
CCA issues are integrated in strategies/development plans (drafts):
• Cross-cutting Strategy for Environment,2015-2020 (MoE)
• Integrated management of water resources (MARDWA)
• Integrated cross-sectorial plan for the coast - 2015 (NATP)
• National Adaptation Plan process (GIZ, MoE)
• New municipal development plans encouraged to address CC
issues
Finalized docs:
• CC and Health Strategy (MoH, 2013)
• Policy Paper: Climate Change Adaptation in the Drini Mati River
Delta and Beyond (MoE/UNDP, 2013)
Knowledge gaps
• Observations needs:
• Gaps in observational network (soil moisture, evapotranspiration,
groundwater, short series of solar radiation and wind)
• Monitoring of climate related impacts in different sectors
• Research needs (impact assessment)
• How to:
• Understand climate projections and expected impacts: uncertainties in
modeling climate variability esp. precipitation,
• respond sustainably to CC extreme events (’bridging’ DRR and CC adaptation)
• Capacities to evaluate costs and benefits, potentials and limitations
need to be built/improved
Thank you!
Draft TNC for comments
http://www.mjedisi.gov.al/al/programi/sherbime-dhe-transparence/transparencedhe-pjesemarrje