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CLIMATE CHANGE ---- Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Dahe JIANG [email protected] UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Develepment Climate change & mitigation Short lived climate pollutants Air pollution in China and efforts on climate change mitigation MAIN DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE: – – – – – Temperature rise: earth surface, upper air, sea water; Sea level rise; Melting of Iceberg, glaciers and mounting snow; Change in precipitation distribution and strength; Extreme weather events …… DRIVERS: – Emission and accumulation of GHGs: H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3 …… – Tokyo Protocol: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFC, PFC … – CO2 & short lived climate pollutants. Consequence: – Surface temperature might rise 1.1 to 6.4ºC globally, and sea level might rise 18 to 59 cm. If temperature rises over 1.5ºC, 20~30% of natural species would face extinction; – Developing countries are the most vulnerable. As early as in 2020, 75 million to 250 million African people might face water scarcity; Asia megacities would encounter flooding due to sea level rise; Europeans would observe the extinction of numerous species, and the Americans would surfer from longer and hotter heat waves. Observed widespread warming Annual Surface Trend 1979 to 2005 Troposphere Global ocean extremely unlikely without external forcing very unlikely due to known natural causes alone 1955 1980 2005 The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (LWR) is influenced by global climate ‘drivers’. Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts. O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets and possibly affecting precipitation. Because cloud interactions with SWR and LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for the radiative budget. Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>2.5 μm in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by absorbing outgoing LWR and reemitting less energy at a lower temperature. Surface albedo is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or ice cover and ocean colour. These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal changes (e.g., snow cover), as well as human influence (e.g., changes in vegetation types) . GHG emissions ACCORDING TO AR5 – WGIII: Left: GHG emissions per region over 1970-2010. Right: The same data presented as per capita GHG emissions. Data from JRC/PBL (2012) and IEA (2012). Figure 5.3. Upper-left: Historic fossil CO2 emissions per region; Lower-left panel: an illustrative estimate of historical land-use-change emissions; Right panels show cumulative emissions over selected time periods by region. Whisker lines give an indication of the range of emission results. COMMON AND DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIBILITIES: China is now the biggest emitter. Note: The colored areas correspond to accumulated emissions ~~ historical responsibility Annual carbon emission from fuel in 1900~2010, in 106 tons of carbon Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Data http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ PER CAPITA EMISSION IS LOW, BUT EXCEEDED GLOBAL AVERAGE Three groups − − − − USA, Canada, Australia Other developed countries Developing countries China has entered the 2nd, exceeded global average Per capita carbon emissions for fuel in 1950~2012, based on CDIAC data Unit: tons of carbon (to convert to CO2, simply multiply with 3.667) Mitigation is difficult …… HISTORIC AGREEMENT: President Obama's visit to Beijing, in Nov. 2014, yielded a pact to cut greenhouse gas pollution from the world's two biggest emitting nations. Lets wait for the Paris COP on climate change mitigation in Dec. 2015. SHORT LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS "If someone proposed that you could save close to 2.5 million lives annually, cut global crop losses by around 30 million tonnes a year and curb climate change by around half a degree Celsius, what would you do? Achim Steiner ---- Time to act! SLCPs are responsible for a substantial fraction of near term climate change, with a particularly large impact on sensitive regions of the world, and have significant detrimental health, agricultural, and environmental impacts. IPCC AR5 WGIII reports: Air pollutant and methane emissions from anthropogenic and open burning, normalized to 1970 values. Short-timescale variability, in carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in particular, is due to grassland and forest burning. Short-lived climate pollutants are everywhere in our lives. They are impacting the climate system and the quality of our air. It is time to act against these pollutants and deliver near term and multiple benefits for human well-being. CHINA IS FACING SERIOUS AIR POLLUTION − − − “Gray Haze” or “Fog Haze”; O3, photochemical smog; …… and other … WHAT DOES “GRAY HAZE” LOOK LIKE In Jan, 2013, Beijing was hit by “Fog-Haze” for ~ 20 days ! Red: PM2.5 in μg/m3, peaked at 800μg/m3 Blue: relative humidity in %, generally high OCT 21-22, 2013, HEAVY FOG-HAZE HITS HAERBIN, SHENYANG, AND DALIAN. VISIBILITY WAS SO LOW : A PUBLIC BUS WENT WRONG ROUTE PM2.5 > 500μg/m3; humidity ~ 95%; Calm; T ~ 3-6 ºC “HAZE” POLLUTION IS REGIONAL Nov 4, 2015 Haerbin: Went outFog from gate, then looked back: “Home disappeared!” Nov 2, 05:00 Haze Nov 2, 05:00 To Nov 3, 05:00 To Nov 3, 05:00 Fog Nov 3, 05:00 To Nov 4, 05:00 Haze Nov 3, 05:00 To Nov 4, 05:00 Since July 2015, Meteorological Bureau now provides both “Fog” and “Haze” distributions (“Haze” might be determined by PM2.5 concentration distribution) THE CHINESE TERM, “GRAY-HAZE” OR “FOG-HAZE”: In Chinese, “Gray (灰)” has two meanings: “gray color” and “(fine) particulates”; “Fog” and “Haze” have the similar meanings as that in English. Therefore, “Gray Haze” in Chinese refers to the air pollution, which is widely spread with gray color and low visibility, but if it is wet as fog, “Fog Haze” especially refers to high humidity case. WHY SKY BLUE, FOG WHITE, BUT HAZE GRAY? Scattering of air molecules obey Rayleigh’s law that scattering is inversely proportional to the 4th power of incoming light wavelength so that we see sky blue . Fine particles are mostly sub-microns that their scattering obey Mie’s law that all wavelength lights are scattered evenly, so that gray (or white) . Fog droplets are also sub-microns, why white? Light extinction = Absorption + Scattering Fog also has “CCN”, but natural aerosols are is extremely tiny. Fog is mainly of small water droplets, with strong light scattering and very weak absorption. Gray haze particles are of high concentration … strong light absorption & scattering WHAT IS IN “GRAY HAZE”? (AN EXAMPLE) Figure taken from Dongsheng Ji, et al, Atmos. Environ. (2014) 546~556 COMPOSITION AND SOURCES OF PM2.5 Main parts: Sources: Primary(emitted directed): carbon, dust, oil droplet, heavy metal, sea salt… Secondary(transformed in atmosphere): sulfuric acid droplet/sulfate, nitric acid droplet/nitrate, secondary organic carbon… Natural: volcanic eruption, forest fire, sand storm, sea waves … Manmade: fossil fuel combustion (coal, oil gas…vehicular), dust suspension, industrial process, straw burning, cooling, cigarette smoke, … Note: Hygroscopicity and light scatter ability are different for primary and secondary particles, so as to contributions to “gray haze”; Toxicities of primary and secondary particles are different; Sources of organic carbon are very complicated … including vehicular emission, oil industry, chemical engineering, domestic heating and cooking, straw burning, … natural sources etc. Gray Haze: its formation and major anthropogenic sources NASA PM2.5 remote sensing (2001~2006) Did China have so much cars in 2001-2006? China data 2010 With cities possess more than 2M cars US IMPROVE project started 1988 to study PM2.5 and visibility reduction, network Eastern US observation result 2005-2008, contributions of PM2.5 components to visibility reduction Features: • Low concentrations • Summer time higher • • Sulfates contributes more than nitrates Organic matter contributes significantly US brought up the ambient quality standard of PM2.5 in 1997, and renewed O3 concentration standard. IMPROVE ~ Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment ~ started in 1988. PM2.5 and visibility monitoring covers the whole country for their relationship and source attribution. This program studies the situation close to China’s Gray-Haze. However, the concentrations of PM2.5 in US are much lower than that in China. COMPARISON OF KNOWN AIR POLLUTION TYPES Type Coal burning without control Vehicular emission without control Year Synonym Ancient Rome London Smog Since 1940s Photoche mical Smog Scale City Great city or cities Acid rain Since 1960s Acid rain Ozone layer depletion Fine particles or PM2.5 Since 1970s Since 1990s Ozone layer Global depletion Fine particles or Regional PM2.5 Global warming Since 1500s Climate change Fine particles or PM2.5 Since 2000s Regional Global Gray haze Regional or fog haze Pollutants and feature High SO2 and soot concentrations High concentrations of O3, NOx, HCs, PAN, … and fine particles Precipitation water pH< 5.6 SO2, NOx, sulfates and nitrates CFCs Fine particles Although noticed in US, the concentrations are low GHGs, warming, sea level rise, snow cover and glaciers melting, ..extreme weathers High concentration of fine particles: sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbons Health impact Environment Known events Acute deaths Chronic impacts not known Heavy smog Visibility impairment London, Dec 1952, 4000 deaths in 5 days, later 8000more deaths Eye irritation Moderate haze, Los Angeles, Sept Respirable system, visibility 1955, but no direct chronic impacts reduced deaths recorded not known Corrosion of 1980-1990s cross Not clear constructions, boundary transport acidification of was noticed waters and soil Skin disease Climate change Ozone hole Respirable system, Visibility be chronic impact reduced Noticed by US in 1997, and “IMPROVE” project is going Under study severe Chronic impacts Respirable system impact, chronic effects Visibility severely impaired Jan 2013 Beijing Fog-Haze; Oct 2013 Haerbin Fog-Haze WHY GRAY HAZE HITS CHINA? AND OTHER AIR POLLUTION CHALLENGES … China is making a miracle 2008 1995 It is the great enthusiasm and power of people released after a long time of depression due to war and chaos, from a nation of glorious history and magnificent culture, but of a huge population, with the “Chinese model(?) ”, driving the development. While population increased by about 40% and to level off, GDP has increased nearly 50 times. 400 million people have eradicated poverty, 12 years in advance, and contributed 75% to UN MDG THE POPULATION PEAK IS TO COME AROUND 2030 Peak before 2030, about 1.4 billion; “Aging before wealthy”, rise of dependency ratio, end of demographic dividend; Sex ratio, urban and rural? How would birth rate increase under new policy? End of 2010: 1.34 billion The peak would appear around 2030, e.g., 1.463 billion in 2032 (UN 2006), 1.404 billion in 2027(UN 2010), and 1.442 billion in 2029 (Chen 2006) etc. while the National Population Development Strategy Study of China predicted 1.5 billion in 2033. However, China is still a developing country: Poverty in 200million population; Low per capita GDP; Improper social services; Uneven development: Gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural, east and west – Corruption; – Severe environmental pollution/resource limitation – – – – Village in city Poor school I often goes through this neighborhood for buying raw food… Comparison of energy consumption structure --- Based on BP world energy statistics 2015 • • How does this energy structure lead to China’s air pollution characteristics? How does it affect the emissions of air pollutants and cause “Gray-Haze”? China burns coal 4 times as US and 6 times as India Fossil fuel consumption in China (ML) in million tons oil equivalent 3 000 Coal Oil Gas 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Fossil fuel consumption increases quickly in recent years, so as the related air pollutants, data from BP Notice the spatial counter-correlation of areas with heavy PM2.5 pollution and acid rain van Donkelaar et al. (2010) Environmental Health Perspectives 118(6), 847-855 2010 TO UNDERSTAND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA: Still a developing country; Coal-priority energy structure; Over productivities for energy-consuming products; Rapid development in vehicle use; Great efforts have been made with obvious reductions in surface SO2 and PM10 concentrations of large cities; But in recent years, GDP/money oriented, with corruption …, legislatively loose; Not aware on new situation, including experts, so as outdated regulations …… control strategy? AIR POLLUTION CONTROL IN CHINA Basic Law, Laws, Acts, Regulations, Guidelines …… Sectoral pollutant emission standards and ambient air quality standards, e.g., PM2.5 and O3 since 2013 …; Air quality monitoring network and API-AQI system, reporting …; “Close, Stop, Change, Combine, or Move out” polluting industries; Pull down low stacks, promote electricity use and centralized heating ….; Two Control Zone (SO2 and acid rain) and SO2 emission mass control; Vehicle emission standards, comparable to EU-IV and EU-V; Air quality standards renewed quickly, and monitoring network is now NO. 1 in the world; More updated efforts… ACHIEVEMENTS IN CHINA’S AIR POLLUTION CONTROL Obvious achievements in over 30 years’ work. Strategy: close/stop/ change/combine/move out polluting industries, set up tall stacks, successfully reduced urban surface air pollutant (SO2 and PM10) concentrations, but NO2 (because of car use increases). Problems: along with development, 10th FiveYear Plan and after (2001-), pollutant emission amount increases rapidly; De-S is not successful, illegal emissions were not properly punished., such that SO2 emission increases quickly. M (also NOx and dust). Therefore, acid rain, photo-chemical smog, PM2.5, and haze become severe; API time series curves in major cities(2000-2009) GRAY HAZE DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA Definition and standards of PM2.5 were brought up by US EPA in 1997. Earlier the research of fine particles was in the aspect of aerosols and acidic precursors; China initiated to study aerosols at the same time for acid rain. Sulfates and nitrates are the major acid rain precursors and able to transport long distance to form regional pollution. Specific PM2.5 studies were started from1997. Entering the 21th century, Chinese researchers found “City-Group” air pollution which is actually the early recognition of regional pollution ~ Gray Haze. Chinese meteorology society also noticed visibility reduction problem. At a 2002 national conference of meteorologists, the word “Gray Haze” was for the first time put forth academically which was a direct translation from a western media. Gray Haze became a media term afterwards and a hot topic in a number of conferences held afterwards. It was found that during 2005-2006, there was a peak of Gray Haze development. Then it was somewhat reduced possibly due to the requirement of desulfurization in 2007. However, it seemed Gray Haze reached a new peak after 2010. Especially after the autumn of 2011, Gray Haze invaded Beijing and north China. The trig was the difference of monitoring results of US Embassy (hourly PM2.5) and that of Beijing City (Daily PM10), but the regional “Gray” was obviously a fact. Only after autumn of 2012, “Fog Haze” became a popular term by China’s media and government. Combat PM2.5 and Gray-Haze is closely related to SLCPs mitigation EFFORTS TO COMBAT PM2.5 AND GRAY-HAZE Updated air quality standards, 2012, including O3 and PM2.5; Updated AQI system; Enhanced monitoring system and public reporting; Series of control plans and measures; “Coal consumption reduction”, responsibility assigned to persons, industrial structure reformation, de-S, and de-N; To apply EU-V standard; demolish old cars, odd/even plate no system, public transportation … Cooperative prevention and control … in three major regions: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. An update of Environmental Protection Law (15 years) THE NATIONAL 10 MEASURES… Phase out backward/over-productivities in 21 industries Reduce coal consumption part from 70% to less than 65%; Country wide PM2.5 monitoring network; N-5 Oil supply before 2018; Provincial level air pollution alerting systems started in 2015; “联防联控”、“压煤”、“签约保蓝 天” Slogans: “United control and prevention”, “Coal use reduction”、“Signed to protect blue sky” AIR QUALITY MONITORING ENHANCED SINCE 2012 No of stations Beijing: 35 Shanghai: 10 Guangzhou: 10 Reporting to public, hourly & daily average: SO2 NO2 CO O3 PM10 PM2.5 API system is renewed to AQI for public awareness EXAMPLE: THE NORTH CHINA REGION Province Control plan Beijing Coal reduction 10M tons, vehicles within 6M, limit cement and refinery industries, close 1200 polluting enterprises; 10 measures/66 measures/462 tasks/2055 projects Tianjin Coal reduction 40M tons, phase out 0.578M old vehicles, dust control for 7265 construction sites, close/stop/limit large no. of Hebei polluting enterprises Shanxi Close private coal boilers, phase out all old vehicles, phase out backward/over productivities of iron/steel/cook Inner De-S, de-N, and dust removal, require high quality coal for power Mongolia station and heating Shandong To change coal to gas for boilers; provide N-4 oil for cars from 2014, financial support to phase out old vehicles EXAMPLE: JING/JIN/JI AREA SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE STEEL/IRON INDUSTRIES According to MEP report, over 70% of the nearly 300 steel factories in JJJ area do not attain pollution control requirement; For air pollution control, it is required to phase out 60M tons of steel/ iron productivity in Hebei Province, about 1/3 of total. Within it, the 3 cities, Tangshan, Handan, and Shijiazhuang must cut off 40M, 12.04M, and 4.82M tons of steel/iron productivities respectively; During the on-site surveying in early 2012, it was found in Hebei that there are more than 300 sintering machines but only about 100 of them are with desulfurization devices, and unfortunately 70% of these devices cannot work properly. It is also known that desulfurization costs 5~60,000 RMB daily for such a factory, so that these factories use desulfurization devices only in daytime. PROGRESS Mar 1, 2014, China Science Academy organized a forum reported: Situation is getting improved after 2012, e.g., comparing the gray haze events in 2014 with 2013 Generation and development of gray haze is related to economic development, such as: the Great-Beijing Area consumed national 22% and global 11% of coal, and produce 25% national and 15% global iron/steel. But its area is only 0.05% of the world. Therefore, this area is substantially a huge stack! …。 Source attribution results approaches agreement: In the region, coal burning is the No 1 to blame, vehicular emission secondary; For Beijing City, vehicular emission is No 1. But during gray haze episodes, outside transport is of significant attribution; Tech. of US IMPROVE program has been applied to a number of researches, reporting sulfates, nitrates, and secondary organic carbon are the main contributors to gray haze. ACHIEVEMENT IS OBVIOUS From Jan to April, 2015, average PM10 concentration of 327 cities was 108μg/m3,reduced by 5.3% as the same period in 2014; average PM2.5 concentration of 74 large cities was 67μg/m3, reduced by 15.2%; In the areas of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, PM2.5 concentrations were reduced by 20%、9.7%、and 14% respectively. Also in this summer, people saw more blue sky … However, O3 often became the primary air pollutant in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. -------- Photochemical smog CHALLENGES To “reduce coal”, or “reduce SO2” and “reduce NOx”? China’s energy structure is determined by resource structure; Reduce coal use is necessary, say 70% to 65%, but difficult for further reduction. Necessary to enforce de-S and de-N; Reconsider “acid rain” by acidic deposition instead of pH value, so as to re-design emission mass control strategy; More strict emission standards for SO2 and NOx; Strengthening legal enforcement. Protect environment is the duty of all; Develop “Xiao Kang” and eco-civilization ! Rapid developing mobile fleets, but … For example, there close to 4M cars/motos in Shanghai, but the population ~ 240M Recent open burning … a tradition of China’s peasants Control air pollution and SLCPs is an international problem Air pollution control is challenging … Oct 29, 2015, on airplane Photo taken on the bus from Newark to NY City, Oct 27, 2015 Photochemical smog is still happening … London: May 24, 2012 Paris: Mar 13, 2014 Los Angeles: Aug 10, 2003 Scandal of Volkswagen: 11M cars rigged sophisticated software to trick emission tests What dose this mean? EFFORTS BEING MADE IN CHINA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: − Family plan; − Forestation; − China climate change report; − National action plan in responding to climate change; − Two national information reports to UNFCCC; − Commitment of reducing carbon strength by 40~45% in 2020; − “Low carbon” technology and development; − Alternative and renewable energy development: wind power, solar energy, and nuclear power stations; − Phase out over-productivity for iron/steel/cement factories, and reduce coal-use; − Eco-city development and “Eco-civilization” − “Xiaokang Society” SOME NEWS China-France announcement for climate change mitigation, Nov. 3, 2015; On the 5th Plenum of CPC Central committee, the new 13th FiveYear Plan was brought up; China would become relatively wealthy by 2020. (total output and per capita income would be doubled from the 2010 level, and to keep an average growth rate of 6.5 percent over the next five years; Green and sustainable development, eco-civilization; a Xiao Kang society Beijing EPB just reported, in Jan to October 2015, Beijing air quality is obviously improved. The average concentration of PM2.5 is 69.7μg/m3, 21.8% lower than that in 2014; Besides, concentrations of PM10, SO2 and NO2 are 92.7, 13.0, and 46.2μg/m3 , which are 21.0, 39.8, and 17.1% lower than that in 2014 respectively; Number of heavy pollution days have reduced for 16 days. SUMMARY While combat to control CO2 emissions, it should also be urgent to reduce emissions of Short Lived Climate Pollutants; China is facing serious air pollution: gray haze, O3, BC, as well as traditional air pollutions; Chinese government is making efforts to combat air pollution and obvious improvement has obtained; In industry and energy structure reformation, China has phased out polluting factories, reduced coal-consumption, so as reduced CO2 emission; Further improvements and control SLCPs will be seen in “ecological civilization”, which will be an important target of the 13th Five-Year Plan. LETS WAIT FOR THE GOOD NEWS FROM PARIS COP FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION!