Download ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING - Air Pollution Control

CLIMATE CHANGE
---- Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
Dahe JIANG
[email protected]
UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Develepment



Climate change & mitigation
Short lived climate pollutants
Air pollution in China and efforts on climate
change mitigation
MAIN DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE:
–
–
–
–
–
Temperature rise: earth surface, upper air, sea water;
Sea level rise;
Melting of Iceberg, glaciers and mounting snow;
Change in precipitation distribution and strength;
Extreme weather events ……
DRIVERS:
– Emission and accumulation of GHGs: H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3 ……
– Tokyo Protocol: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFC, PFC …
– CO2 & short lived climate pollutants.
Consequence:
– Surface temperature might rise 1.1 to 6.4ºC globally, and sea level might rise
18 to 59 cm. If temperature rises over 1.5ºC, 20~30% of natural species
would face extinction;
– Developing countries are the most vulnerable. As early as in 2020, 75
million to 250 million African people might face water scarcity; Asia megacities would encounter flooding due to sea level rise; Europeans would
observe the extinction of numerous species, and the Americans would surfer
from longer and hotter heat waves.
Observed widespread warming
Annual
Surface
Trend 1979 to 2005
Troposphere
Global ocean
extremely unlikely without external forcing
very unlikely due to known natural causes alone
1955
1980
2005






The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing
longwave radiation (LWR) is influenced by global climate ‘drivers’.
Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy
balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR).
Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in
atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts.
O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance.
Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud
droplets and possibly affecting precipitation. Because cloud interactions with SWR and
LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for
the radiative budget.
Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>2.5
μm in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by absorbing outgoing LWR and reemitting less energy at a lower temperature.
Surface albedo is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or
ice cover and ocean colour. These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal
changes (e.g., snow cover), as well as human influence (e.g., changes in vegetation types) .
GHG emissions
ACCORDING TO AR5 – WGIII:

Left: GHG emissions per region over 1970-2010. Right: The same data presented as per
capita GHG emissions. Data from JRC/PBL (2012) and IEA (2012).


Figure 5.3. Upper-left: Historic fossil CO2 emissions per region; Lower-left panel: an illustrative
estimate of historical land-use-change emissions;
Right panels show cumulative emissions over selected time periods by region. Whisker lines
give an indication of the range of emission results.
COMMON AND DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIBILITIES:
China is
now the
biggest
emitter.
Note:
The colored
areas
correspond to
accumulated
emissions ~~
historical
responsibility
Annual carbon emission from fuel in 1900~2010, in 106 tons of carbon
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Data http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
PER CAPITA EMISSION IS LOW, BUT EXCEEDED GLOBAL AVERAGE
Three groups
−
−
−
−
USA, Canada,
Australia
Other
developed
countries
Developing
countries
China has
entered the
2nd,
exceeded
global
average
Per capita carbon emissions for fuel in 1950~2012, based on CDIAC data
Unit: tons of carbon (to convert to CO2, simply multiply with 3.667)
Mitigation is difficult ……
HISTORIC AGREEMENT: President Obama's visit to Beijing, in Nov. 2014, yielded a
pact to cut greenhouse gas pollution from the world's two biggest emitting nations.
Lets wait for the Paris COP on climate change mitigation in Dec. 2015.
SHORT LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS
"If someone proposed that you could
save close to 2.5 million lives
annually, cut global crop losses by
around 30 million tonnes a year and
curb climate change by around half a
degree Celsius, what would you do?
Achim Steiner
---- Time to act!
SLCPs are responsible for a substantial fraction
of near term climate change, with a particularly
large impact on sensitive regions of the world,
and have significant detrimental health,
agricultural, and environmental impacts.
IPCC AR5 WGIII reports:

Air pollutant and methane emissions from anthropogenic and open burning,
normalized to 1970 values. Short-timescale variability, in carbon monoxide and
non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in particular, is due to
grassland and forest burning.
Short-lived climate pollutants are everywhere in
our lives. They are impacting the climate system
and the quality of our air. It is time to act against
these pollutants and deliver near term and
multiple benefits for human well-being.
CHINA IS FACING SERIOUS
AIR POLLUTION
−
−
−
“Gray Haze” or “Fog Haze”;
O3, photochemical smog;
…… and other …
WHAT DOES “GRAY HAZE” LOOK LIKE
In Jan, 2013,
Beijing was hit by “Fog-Haze” for ~ 20 days !
Red: PM2.5 in μg/m3, peaked at 800μg/m3
Blue: relative humidity in %, generally high
OCT 21-22, 2013, HEAVY FOG-HAZE HITS
HAERBIN, SHENYANG, AND DALIAN.
VISIBILITY WAS SO LOW : A PUBLIC BUS WENT WRONG ROUTE
PM2.5 >
500μg/m3;
humidity ~ 95%;
Calm;
T ~ 3-6 ºC
“HAZE” POLLUTION IS REGIONAL
Nov 4, 2015 Haerbin:
Went outFog
from gate, then looked back:
“Home disappeared!”
Nov 2, 05:00
Haze
Nov 2, 05:00
To
Nov 3, 05:00
To
Nov 3, 05:00
Fog
Nov 3, 05:00
To
Nov 4, 05:00
Haze
Nov 3, 05:00
To
Nov 4, 05:00
Since July 2015, Meteorological Bureau now provides both “Fog” and “Haze” distributions
(“Haze” might be determined by PM2.5 concentration distribution)
THE CHINESE TERM, “GRAY-HAZE” OR “FOG-HAZE”:


In Chinese, “Gray (灰)” has two meanings: “gray color”
and “(fine) particulates”; “Fog” and “Haze” have the
similar meanings as that in English.
Therefore, “Gray Haze” in Chinese refers to the air
pollution, which is widely spread with gray color and low
visibility, but if it is wet as fog, “Fog Haze” especially refers
to high humidity case.
WHY SKY BLUE, FOG WHITE, BUT HAZE GRAY?



Scattering of air molecules obey Rayleigh’s law that scattering is
inversely proportional to the 4th power of incoming light wavelength so
that we see sky blue .
Fine particles are mostly sub-microns that their scattering obey Mie’s
law that all wavelength lights are scattered evenly, so that gray (or white) .
Fog droplets are also sub-microns, why white?
Light extinction = Absorption + Scattering


Fog also has “CCN”, but
natural aerosols are is
extremely tiny. Fog is mainly of
small water droplets, with
strong light scattering and
very weak absorption.
Gray haze particles are of high
concentration … strong light
absorption & scattering
WHAT IS IN “GRAY HAZE”? (AN EXAMPLE)
Figure taken from Dongsheng Ji, et al,
Atmos. Environ. (2014) 546~556
COMPOSITION AND SOURCES OF PM2.5

Main parts:



Sources:



Primary(emitted directed): carbon, dust, oil droplet, heavy metal, sea
salt…
Secondary(transformed in atmosphere): sulfuric acid droplet/sulfate,
nitric acid droplet/nitrate, secondary organic carbon…
Natural: volcanic eruption, forest fire, sand storm, sea waves …
Manmade: fossil fuel combustion (coal, oil gas…vehicular), dust
suspension, industrial process, straw burning, cooling, cigarette smoke, …
Note:



Hygroscopicity and light scatter ability are different for primary and
secondary particles, so as to contributions to “gray haze”;
Toxicities of primary and secondary particles are different;
Sources of organic carbon are very complicated … including vehicular
emission, oil industry, chemical engineering, domestic heating and
cooking, straw burning, … natural sources etc.
Gray Haze: its formation and major anthropogenic sources
NASA PM2.5 remote sensing (2001~2006)
Did China have so much cars in 2001-2006?
China data 2010
With cities possess more than 2M cars
US IMPROVE project started 1988 to study PM2.5 and visibility reduction, network
Eastern US observation result 2005-2008, contributions of PM2.5
components to visibility reduction
Features:
•
Low
concentrations
•
Summer time
higher
•
•
Sulfates
contributes
more than
nitrates
Organic matter
contributes
significantly



US brought up the ambient quality standard of PM2.5 in
1997, and renewed O3 concentration standard.
IMPROVE ~ Interagency Monitoring of PROtected
Visual Environment ~ started in 1988. PM2.5 and
visibility monitoring covers the whole country for their
relationship and source attribution.
This program studies the situation close to China’s
Gray-Haze. However, the concentrations of PM2.5 in US
are much lower than that in China.
COMPARISON OF KNOWN AIR POLLUTION TYPES
Type
Coal
burning
without
control
Vehicular
emission
without
control
Year
Synonym
Ancient
Rome
London
Smog
Since
1940s
Photoche
mical
Smog
Scale
City
Great city
or cities
Acid rain
Since
1960s
Acid rain
Ozone
layer
depletion
Fine
particles
or PM2.5
Since
1970s
Since
1990s
Ozone
layer
Global
depletion
Fine
particles or Regional
PM2.5
Global
warming
Since
1500s
Climate
change
Fine
particles
or PM2.5
Since
2000s
Regional
Global
Gray haze Regional
or fog haze
Pollutants and feature
High SO2 and soot
concentrations
High concentrations of O3,
NOx, HCs, PAN, … and fine
particles
Precipitation water pH< 5.6
SO2, NOx, sulfates and
nitrates
CFCs
Fine particles
Although noticed in US, the
concentrations are low
GHGs, warming, sea level
rise, snow cover and
glaciers melting, ..extreme
weathers
High concentration of fine
particles: sulfates, nitrates,
and organic carbons
Health impact
Environment
Known events
Acute deaths
Chronic impacts
not known
Heavy smog
Visibility
impairment
London, Dec 1952,
4000 deaths in 5
days, later
8000more deaths
Eye irritation
Moderate haze, Los Angeles, Sept
Respirable system, visibility
1955, but no direct
chronic impacts
reduced
deaths recorded
not known
Corrosion of
1980-1990s cross
Not clear
constructions,
boundary transport
acidification of was noticed
waters and soil
Skin disease
Climate change Ozone hole
Respirable system, Visibility be
chronic impact
reduced
Noticed by US in
1997, and
“IMPROVE” project
is going
Under study
severe
Chronic impacts
Respirable system
impact, chronic
effects
Visibility
severely
impaired
Jan 2013 Beijing
Fog-Haze; Oct 2013
Haerbin Fog-Haze
WHY GRAY HAZE HITS CHINA?
AND OTHER AIR POLLUTION
CHALLENGES …
China is making a miracle
2008
1995
It is the great enthusiasm and power of people released after a long time of depression
due to war and chaos, from a nation of glorious history and magnificent culture, but of
a huge population, with the “Chinese model(?) ”, driving the development.
While
population
increased by
about 40%
and to level
off, GDP has
increased
nearly 50
times.
400 million
people have
eradicated
poverty,
12 years in
advance,
and
contributed
75% to UN
MDG
THE POPULATION PEAK IS TO COME AROUND 2030




Peak before 2030, about 1.4 billion;
“Aging before wealthy”, rise of dependency ratio, end of
demographic dividend;
Sex ratio, urban and rural?
How would birth rate increase under new policy?
End of 2010: 1.34
billion
The peak would appear around 2030, e.g., 1.463 billion in 2032 (UN 2006), 1.404 billion in 2027(UN 2010), and 1.442 billion
in 2029 (Chen 2006) etc. while the National Population Development Strategy Study of China predicted 1.5 billion in 2033.
However, China is still a developing country:
Poverty in 200million population;
Low per capita GDP;
Improper social services;
Uneven development:
Gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural, east and west
– Corruption;
– Severe environmental pollution/resource limitation
–
–
–
–
Village in city
Poor school
I often goes through this neighborhood for buying raw food…
Comparison of energy consumption structure
--- Based on BP world energy statistics 2015
•
•
How does this energy structure lead to China’s
air pollution characteristics?
How does it affect the emissions of air pollutants
and cause “Gray-Haze”?
China burns coal 4 times
as US and 6 times as India
Fossil fuel consumption in China (ML) in million tons oil equivalent
3 000
Coal
Oil
Gas
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Fossil fuel consumption increases quickly in recent years, so as
the related air pollutants, data from BP
Notice the spatial counter-correlation
of areas with heavy PM2.5 pollution
and acid rain
van Donkelaar et al. (2010) Environmental Health
Perspectives 118(6), 847-855
2010
TO UNDERSTAND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA:







Still a developing country;
Coal-priority energy structure;
Over productivities for energy-consuming products;
Rapid development in vehicle use;
Great efforts have been made with obvious reductions
in surface SO2 and PM10 concentrations of large cities;
But in recent years, GDP/money oriented, with
corruption …, legislatively loose;
Not aware on new situation, including experts, so as
outdated regulations …… control strategy?
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL IN CHINA


Basic Law, Laws, Acts, Regulations, Guidelines ……
Sectoral pollutant emission standards and ambient air quality
standards, e.g., PM2.5 and O3 since 2013 …;

Air quality monitoring network and API-AQI system, reporting …;

“Close, Stop, Change, Combine, or Move out” polluting industries;

Pull down low stacks, promote electricity use and centralized
heating ….;

Two Control Zone (SO2 and acid rain) and SO2 emission mass control;

Vehicle emission standards, comparable to EU-IV and EU-V;


Air quality standards renewed quickly, and monitoring network is now
NO. 1 in the world;
More updated efforts…
ACHIEVEMENTS IN CHINA’S AIR POLLUTION CONTROL




Obvious achievements in
over 30 years’ work.
Strategy: close/stop/
change/combine/move
out polluting industries,
set up tall stacks,
successfully reduced
urban surface air
pollutant (SO2 and PM10)
concentrations, but NO2
(because of car use
increases).
Problems: along with
development, 10th FiveYear Plan and after
(2001-), pollutant
emission amount
increases rapidly;
De-S is not successful,
illegal emissions were
not properly punished.,
such that SO2 emission
increases quickly. M (also
NOx and dust).
Therefore, acid rain,
photo-chemical smog,
PM2.5, and haze become
severe;
API time series curves in major cities（2000-2009）
GRAY HAZE DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA




Definition and standards of PM2.5 were brought up by US EPA in 1997. Earlier the
research of fine particles was in the aspect of aerosols and acidic precursors;
China initiated to study aerosols at the same time for acid rain. Sulfates and nitrates
are the major acid rain precursors and able to transport long distance to form regional
pollution. Specific PM2.5 studies were started from1997.
Entering the 21th century, Chinese researchers found “City-Group” air pollution
which is actually the early recognition of regional pollution ~ Gray Haze. Chinese
meteorology society also noticed visibility reduction problem. At a 2002 national
conference of meteorologists, the word “Gray Haze” was for the first time put forth
academically which was a direct translation from a western media. Gray Haze became
a media term afterwards and a hot topic in a number of conferences held afterwards.
It was found that during 2005-2006, there was a peak of Gray Haze development.
Then it was somewhat reduced possibly due to the requirement of desulfurization in
2007.
However, it seemed Gray Haze reached a new peak after 2010. Especially after the
autumn of 2011, Gray Haze invaded Beijing and north China. The trig was the
difference of monitoring results of US Embassy (hourly PM2.5) and that of Beijing City
(Daily PM10), but the regional “Gray” was obviously a fact. Only after autumn of
2012, “Fog Haze” became a popular term by China’s media and government.
Combat PM2.5 and Gray-Haze is closely
related to SLCPs mitigation
EFFORTS TO COMBAT PM2.5 AND GRAY-HAZE




Updated air quality standards, 2012, including O3 and PM2.5;
Updated AQI system;
Enhanced monitoring system and public reporting;
Series of control plans and measures;




“Coal consumption reduction”, responsibility assigned to persons,
industrial structure reformation, de-S, and de-N;
To apply EU-V standard; demolish old cars, odd/even plate no system,
public transportation …
Cooperative prevention and control … in three major regions: Beijing,
Shanghai and Guangzhou.
An update of Environmental Protection Law (15 years)
THE NATIONAL 10 MEASURES…

Phase out backward/over-productivities in 21 industries

Reduce coal consumption part from 70% to less than 65%;

Country wide PM2.5 monitoring network;

N-5 Oil supply before 2018;

Provincial level air pollution alerting systems started in 2015;
“联防联控”、“压煤”、“签约保蓝
天”
Slogans: “United control and prevention”, “Coal
use reduction”、“Signed to protect blue sky”
AIR QUALITY MONITORING ENHANCED SINCE 2012
No of stations
Beijing: 35
Shanghai: 10
Guangzhou: 10
Reporting to
public, hourly &
daily average:
SO2
NO2
CO
O3
PM10
PM2.5
API system is
renewed to AQI
for public
awareness
EXAMPLE: THE NORTH CHINA REGION
Province
Control plan
Beijing
Coal reduction 10M tons, vehicles within 6M, limit cement and
refinery industries, close 1200 polluting enterprises;
10 measures/66 measures/462 tasks/2055 projects
Tianjin
Coal reduction 40M tons, phase out 0.578M old vehicles, dust
control for 7265 construction sites, close/stop/limit large no. of
Hebei
polluting enterprises
Shanxi
Close private coal boilers, phase out all old vehicles, phase out
backward/over productivities of iron/steel/cook
Inner
De-S, de-N, and dust removal, require high quality coal for power
Mongolia station and heating
Shandong To change coal to gas for boilers; provide N-4 oil for cars from 2014,
financial support to phase out old vehicles
EXAMPLE:
JING/JIN/JI AREA SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE STEEL/IRON INDUSTRIES



According to MEP report, over 70% of the nearly 300 steel factories in
JJJ area do not attain pollution control requirement;
For air pollution control, it is required to phase out 60M tons of steel/
iron productivity in Hebei Province, about 1/3 of total. Within it, the 3
cities, Tangshan, Handan, and Shijiazhuang must cut off 40M, 12.04M,
and 4.82M tons of steel/iron productivities respectively;
During the on-site surveying in early 2012, it was found in Hebei that
there are more than 300 sintering machines but only about 100 of
them are with desulfurization devices, and unfortunately 70% of these
devices cannot work properly. It is also known that desulfurization
costs 5~60,000 RMB daily for such a factory, so that these factories
use desulfurization devices only in daytime.
PROGRESS

Mar 1, 2014, China Science Academy organized a forum reported:

Situation is getting improved after 2012, e.g., comparing the gray haze
events in 2014 with 2013


Generation and development of gray haze is related to economic
development, such as: the Great-Beijing Area consumed national 22%
and global 11% of coal, and produce 25% national and 15% global
iron/steel. But its area is only 0.05% of the world. Therefore, this area is
substantially a huge stack! …。
Source attribution results approaches agreement:



In the region, coal burning is the No 1 to blame, vehicular emission
secondary;
For Beijing City, vehicular emission is No 1. But during gray haze episodes,
outside transport is of significant attribution;
Tech. of US IMPROVE program has been applied to a number of
researches, reporting sulfates, nitrates, and secondary organic carbon
are the main contributors to gray haze.
ACHIEVEMENT IS OBVIOUS




From Jan to April, 2015, average PM10 concentration of 327 cities
was 108μg/m3，reduced by 5.3% as the same period in 2014；
average PM2.5 concentration of 74 large cities was 67μg/m3，
reduced by 15.2%；
In the areas of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, PM2.5
concentrations were reduced by 20%、9.7%、and 14% respectively.
Also in this summer, people saw more blue sky …
However, O3 often became the primary air pollutant in
Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou.
-------- Photochemical smog
CHALLENGES

To “reduce coal”, or “reduce SO2” and “reduce NOx”?



China’s energy structure is determined by resource structure;
Reduce coal use is necessary, say 70% to 65%, but difficult for
further reduction. Necessary to enforce de-S and de-N;
Reconsider “acid rain” by acidic deposition instead of pH
value, so as to re-design emission mass control strategy;

More strict emission standards for SO2 and NOx;

Strengthening legal enforcement.


Protect environment is the duty of all;
Develop “Xiao Kang” and eco-civilization !
Rapid developing mobile fleets, but …
For example, there close to 4M cars/motos in Shanghai, but the population ~ 240M
Recent open burning … a
tradition of China’s peasants
Control air pollution and SLCPs is an
international problem
Air pollution control is challenging …
Oct 29, 2015, on airplane
Photo taken on the bus from Newark to NY City, Oct 27, 2015
Photochemical smog is
still happening …
London: May 24, 2012
Paris: Mar 13, 2014
Los Angeles: Aug 10, 2003
Scandal of
Volkswagen:
11M cars
rigged sophisticated
software to
trick
emission
tests
What dose this mean?
EFFORTS BEING MADE IN CHINA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION:
−
Family plan;
−
Forestation;
−
China climate change report;
−
National action plan in responding to climate change;
−
Two national information reports to UNFCCC;
−
Commitment of reducing carbon strength by 40~45% in 2020;
−
“Low carbon” technology and development;
−
Alternative and renewable energy development: wind power, solar
energy, and nuclear power stations;
−
Phase out over-productivity for iron/steel/cement factories, and
reduce coal-use;
−
Eco-city development and “Eco-civilization”
−
“Xiaokang Society”
SOME NEWS


China-France announcement for climate change mitigation, Nov.
3, 2015;
On the 5th Plenum of CPC Central committee, the new 13th FiveYear Plan was brought up;



China would become relatively wealthy by 2020. (total output and
per capita income would be doubled from the 2010 level, and to
keep an average growth rate of 6.5 percent over the next five years;
Green and sustainable development, eco-civilization; a Xiao Kang
society
Beijing EPB just reported, in Jan to October 2015, Beijing air quality is
obviously improved. The average concentration of PM2.5 is 69.7μg/m3,
21.8% lower than that in 2014; Besides, concentrations of PM10, SO2
and NO2 are 92.7, 13.0, and 46.2μg/m3 , which are 21.0, 39.8, and
17.1% lower than that in 2014 respectively; Number of heavy pollution
days have reduced for 16 days.
SUMMARY





While combat to control CO2 emissions, it should also be urgent to reduce
emissions of Short Lived Climate Pollutants;
China is facing serious air pollution: gray haze, O3, BC, as well as traditional
air pollutions;
Chinese government is making efforts to combat air pollution and obvious
improvement has obtained;
In industry and energy structure reformation, China has phased out polluting
factories, reduced coal-consumption, so as reduced CO2 emission;
Further improvements and control SLCPs will be seen in “ecological
civilization”, which will be an important target of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
LETS WAIT FOR THE GOOD NEWS FROM PARIS COP
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION!