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6
Parametric study ................................................................................................................ 66
6.1
Effect of varying undrained cohesion (cu) ................................................................. 66
6.2
Effect of varying undrained cohesion (cu) and slope angle (β) .................................. 69
6.3
Effect of varying drained angle of shearing resistance .............................................. 72
6.4
Effect of varying bulk unit weight (γ) ........................................................................ 74
6.4.1
Undrained conditions.......................................................................................... 74
6.4.2
Drained conditions .............................................................................................. 75
6.5
Effect of varying pore water pressure (u) .................................................................. 78
6.6
Effect of varying effective shear strength parameters ............................................... 79
7
Deterministic analysis of a case study............................................................................... 81
7.1
Downstream slope...................................................................................................... 82
7.2
Upstream slope .......................................................................................................... 84
7.3
Discussion .................................................................................................................. 85
8
Probabilistic methods of analysis ...................................................................................... 87
8.1
Uncertainties in soil properties .................................................................................. 88
8.2
Random variables and probability density functions ................................................. 89
8.3
Probability of failure .................................................................................................. 92
8.4
Acceptable probabilities of failure ............................................................................. 93
8.5
Types of probabilistic analysis .................................................................................. 97
8.6
Level I analysis .......................................................................................................... 97
8.6.1
Event tree ............................................................................................................ 97
8.6.2
Fault tree ............................................................................................................. 98
8.7
8.7.1
Drained analysis ............................................................................................... 101
8.7.2
Undrained analysis ........................................................................................... 103
8.8
Level III analysis ..................................................................................................... 106
8.8.1
Monte Carlo simulation .................................................................................... 106
8.8.2
Number of simulations ..................................................................................... 106
8.8.3
Drained analysis ............................................................................................... 108
8.8.4
Undrained analysis ........................................................................................... 110
8.9
9
Level II analysis ......................................................................................................... 99
Probabilistic analysis of the case study.................................................................... 112
Comparative analysis ...................................................................................................... 115
10
Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 122
11
References ................................................................................................................... 124
12
Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 130
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