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0.735
Elevation (m)
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Distance (m)
Figure 8.14: Baseline case 1 in undrained conditions
The standard deviations were calculated using the upper boundary coefficients of variation
from Table 8.1. The coefficient of variation for undrained cohesion is greater than that of the
angle of shearing resistance due to the wider range of possible values.
Table 8.5: Random variable expected values and standard deviation
Expected
value
Coefficient of
variation (%)
Standard
deviation
Bulk unit weight (γ kN/m3)
18
7
1.26
Undrained cohesion (cu kPa)
20
40
8.00
Random variable
Table 8.6: Reliability analysis results for Case 1 in terms of total stresses
Random variable kept
constant
γ
cu
Random variable varied
cu
γ
Varied by
Factor of safety
+σ
-σ
+σ
-σ
1.021
0.438
0.682
0.784
Variance
0.085
0.003
Percentage control of
analysis (%)
97.0
3.0
Standard deviation
0.29
0.05
Coefficient of variation
0.40
0.07
Reliability index β
-1.02
-4.56
Probability of failure (%)
84.61
0.0003
104