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Some bumps on the road ahead
Nils Larsson
Executive Director, iiSBE,
the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment
Dunedin
November, 2007
iiSBE at a glance

An international non-profit organization;

Focus on guiding the international construction industry towards
sustainable building practices;

Emphasis is on research and policy, with a special emphasis on
information dissemination, building performance and its assessment;

Board members from 16 countries;

Secretariat is in Ottawa (soon moving to Europe);

Local chapters exist in Italy, Spain, Czech Republic and Portugal,
others are being formed in Poland, France, Malaysia, Taiwan, and
associated organizations exist in Mexico and Brazil;

Andrea Moro is President, Nils Larsson is XD;

No paid staff, very active network
Future context for the construction industry

Climate change effects - temperatures, precipitation and more;

Depletion of water resources in some regions;

Increasing scarcity and cost of oil & gas;

Scarcity and cost of some building materials, and the need to
develop new alternatives;

Scarcity of land for new development;

Reversing the ecological damage of past development;

Dealing with vagaries of government policies;

Taking into account the dysfunctional structure of the construction
industry;

Taking into account the particular nature of buildings and their
occupants;
Future context for the construction industry

Need for more renovation activity and improved performance of
renovated buildings;

Achieving new energy efficiency and green performance
requirements;

Getting the market to accept less extravagant houses;

Building new developments at densities high enough to make
public transport and other services viable;

Increasing the densities of existing suburbs;

Producing large volumes of extremely low-cost housing and
associated infrastructure in developing countries;
Climate change issues
Source:
WRI
Per capita CO2 emissions at the regional level in 2003
2050?
2020?
Source:
IPCC
Predicted climate change impacts: from IPCC 2007
Examples of major projected
impacts for industry, settlements
and society
Reduced energy demand for heating;
increased demand for cooling, declining air
quality in citiesЙ
Reduction in quality of life for those people in
warm areas without appropriate housing;
impacts on the elderly, very young and poor.
Disruption of settlements, transport and
societies due to flooding; pressures on urban
and rural infrastructure; loss of property.
Water shortagesЙ reduced hydro generation,
potential for population migration.
Disruption by flood and high winds, loss of
insurance, population migration, loss of property.
Costs of coastal protection v. relocation, loss of
insurance, population migration, loss of property
Predicted climate change impacts in ANZ:
from IPCC 4th Report, November, 2007
CBC
Deep-freeze pizza facility in Germany after storm of Jan. 18
Note that
economic
damage greatly
exceeds insured
coverage.
Source:
IPCC 2000
We have seen some of the impacts of
climate change on the building sector.
But there will also be other issues facing us.
Possible context during the next century

Energy prices will probably be high, with most analysts
predicting long-term prices above $60 per barrel for oil
(currently at $90+);

There may be a scarcity of affordable natural gas in some
areas due to declining production from easily accessible
fields;

The global production of oil may be close to peak or already
past it;

This diminution of fossil fuel supplies will have immense
effects, only some of which can be foreseen clearly;

Certainly, fuel-dependent transportation will become very
expensive, and so will the construction and operation of
buildings;
Demand
from China,
India,
Brazil and
SE Asia
A global forecast for all oil and gas
IEA has an optimistic scenario for the growth
of renewables and gains in efficiency
Primary energy - global scenario
Future Buildings Forum, IEA
Resource consumption

The construction sector is a major user of resources, including
metals, wood, plastics, and the constituent materials for
cement, masonry and ….

The production process for building materials require large
amounts of energy and water, which feeds back into the central
problem;

The Club of Rome report was hasty in predicting shortages of
resources, but in principle they were correct and there are clear
signs that the increasing difficulty of extracting smaller amounts
of some resources is now having an impact;

And then consider the rate of growth in China, India and Brazil.
Growth in the construction sector of China, Brazil and India is
high, and is likely to remain so for many years
Davis & Langdon, World Construction Review 2005
Consumption of a range of industrial materials in Western
Europe and USA is much more than in the rest of the world:
what happens when India and China join the party?
Wastes

The construction sector is responsible for 30% to 40% of
municipal wastes;

Materials taken to the dump means that new materials must be
produced, with associated energy and emissions;

Throwing things away does not work, because there is no
“away”;

The goal must be zero waste.
Reduction of C &D wastes in the Netherlands
Recycling
Percent
Incineration
Landfill
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Important elements:




Taxes on landfill since 1996
Ban on landfill; partial since 1997, total since 2001;
Obligation to sort C & D waste;
Building materials decree (2001) - all materials certified regarding
leaching, proper use, obligation to take back after use etc.
Info courtesy of Ronald Rovers
Issues at
mid-century
Reduced
availability and
higher cost of
conventional
fuels and
materials
Retrofit to adapt buildings
and relocation to meet
climate change conditions
The
Construction
Sector
New
construction
related to inflow
of climate
refugees
Construction work
required to replace
ageing infrastructure
Demand for higher
service levels in
developing and
developed countries
Need to address housing
and service needs in
developing countries
Energy efficiency v. demand and service levels





Energy efficiency in operations is clearly a top priority in view of its
central role in reducing GHGs;
However, consider the impacts of the following:

Construction undertaken for new airports and roads, future Olympics and
World Expo events;

Buildings that are fully air-conditioned in even moderate climates;

Second and third homes;

Single family houses that are efficient but have areas of 500 m2 or more;

The proliferation of types and numbers of household appliances in even
middle-class homes;
In such cases, energy efficiency is not enough, and we must reduce
the level of demand and expectations of service levels;
But a reduction in demand or service levels is much harder to
achieve than efficiency improvements, since it requires changes in
values and lifestyles;
This will be the main issue to address during the next decades.
Amount of space required to transport the same
number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle
Source: poster in City of Muenster planning office, 2001
Conclusions

Energy efficiency and Greenhouse gas emissions are core
factors, but more than operating energy is involved;

Other key issues include water and resource scarcity;

There are many obstacles to rapid take-up of new ideas in the
building sector;

Success will require action on a broad front, taking into
account varying regional needs and preferences;

Great advances in environmental efficiency can be expected,
but it is not so clear that we will see the changes of lifestyles
and values required to reduce the production volume of
buildings and equipment or to reduce service quality
expectations..

If we are to successfully manage the impacts of climate
change we must act immediately!
Contacts & Info

http://www.iisbe.org

http://www.sbis.info

Nils Larsson, [email protected]