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Abstracts
In alphabetic order (according to name appearing in the programme)
Why recognising variability and scale matters for the improvement of landscape
condition and livelihoods
Jane Addison
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia
Sessions:
Grassland policy and management, Beijing, afternoon
Hazard management in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, morning
In dryland landscapes under a pastoral land-use, variability crosses both biophysical
and socioeconomic domains, and can be scale dependent. The Gobi Desert is an
example of such a system. The Gobi Desert experiences high levels of climatic and
commodity price variability through space and time, with herder decision-making
significantly influenced by both these types of variability, and their interactions. The
nature of this variability is also scale dependent with some pasture types likely to be
more equilibrial through time than others. Similarly, remote markets may experience
greater fluctuations in commodity prices than less remote markets. Policy interventions
that do not recognise the importance of variability and scale for landscape condition
and livelihoods risk facilitating opportunity costs, livelihood shocks, institutional ‘rulebreaking’ or overgrazing. In this paper, I draw upon socio-economic, institutional and
biophysical datasets from Omnogobi and Dundgobi aimags in Mongolia, and Damao
and Urat Rear Banner in Inner Mongolia, to argue for an appropriate consideration of
the cross domain effects of variability and scale in the design of policy. I suggest that a
research agenda that focuses on the coupled risk produced by socioeconomic and
biophysical variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales is likely to provide new
insights into livelihood and landscape condition change. Such insight will enable the
design of more appropriate policy.
Adaptation to climate and socio economic changes: transboundary analysis of
grassland management systems and strategies of herders in the Gobi.
Batbuyan, B.
Institute of Geography, Mongolia
Sessions:
Grassland policy and management, Beijing, afternoon
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
This study analyses the herders’ adaptive strategies for pasture management within
two different systems during the last thirty years, considering environment and socio
economic transformation. The study focuses on climate changes, government policy,
and market economy factors. The study areas were selected in along the border
between Mongolia and China. The sites were selected based on criteria such as
ecological similarities and close geographical location. We used mixed-methods
approaches, participatory observation, informal and formal interviews. Findings show
that mobility of herders is still a key adaptive strategy for many in both countries.
Population redistribution and internal migration in Mongolia, twenty years of change
Barcus, H. (presented by Henri Rueff)
Macalester College, USA
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
Since the early years of Mongolia’s transition, settlement patterns amongst Mongolia’s
population have been largely influenced by the economic and social opportunities in
Ulan Bataar. Although there are a few notable exceptions, migration patterns
emphasize this movement towards the capital city. The dominance of this urbanward
flow, however, masks significant yet varied inter-provincial flows. These flows are
influenced by such factors as land tenure stability, changing livelihood challenges, and
emerging economic opportunities. In places such as the Gobi and the Altai these
challenges have differentially affected the livelihoods of migrants and long term
residents.
The first objective of this presentation is to provide a twenty-year visual overview of the
changing population distribution in Mongolia, using the Soum as the core geographic
unit for mapping and analysis. Of specific interest is the redistribution, however slight
and temporary, of peoples away from the urban core of Ulan Bataar. While
population redistribution away from urban centres rarely dominates internal migration
flows, the in-migration of new populations creates new challenges for existing
populations which may have significant long term effects for these populations. The
second objective of the presentation is to look specifically at the ethnic profiles of
Soums or Aimags experiencing rapid population change through either in- or outmigration, based on Mongolia’s National Statistics Office census data. Data drawn
from surveys and interviews with pastoralists in western Mongolia are additionally
utilized to highlight how broad-scale policy changes and local-scale population
fluctuation may be linked to individual migration decisions. The findings suggest
avenues for inquiry amongst pastoralists in other eco-regions and facing different
population and economic pressures.
Climate change scenarios in the Mongolian Plateau
Dan, Y.1,2, Huang, H.1
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
2 Wageningen University, The Netherlands
1
Session:
Environment and physics of the Gobi, Beijing, Morning
The Mongolian Plateau, located in arid and semi-arid area, is a typical agriculturegrazing transitional area under the threat of desertification and land degradation. In
addition to human activities, climate change due to increasing concentration of
greenhouse gases has a significant impact on land degradation. In order to identify if
climate change could lead to positive or negative effects on land degradation in the
Mongolian Plateau, we investigated the observed and projected seasonal and spatial
changes of temperature and precipitation, as well as some climate extremes indices.
For observations, the WATCH Forcing Data 20th Century (1958-2001) have been used
for the analysis. For future projections, we used bias-corrected results of five different
climate models under the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate that the
annual mean surface air temperature in the Mongolian Plateau has risen by1.66oC.
The temperature increase in winter is higher than in summer during the period of 19582001. Warming is predicted to be more pronounced in the high mountainous areas
and their valleys, and less in the Gobi desert. The annual mean precipitation will
decrease in central Mongolian Plateau but increase in both the eastern and western
regions of the plateau .The precipitation in winter and spring is projected to decrease,
however, no changes are found in summer and autumn. The rapid desertification and
land degradation are most likely due to increased temperature and decreased
precipitation.
Rangeland degradation and Herders self- governing institution in Mongolia
Dorligsuren, D.
Mongolian Society for Range Management, Mongolia
Session:
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, morning
Mongolian rangeland is vast, but very vulnerable, and it occupies 112.8 million
hectares or 72.1 percent of the total territory. About 70% of the pasture area is
degraded in some form. Open access to common pastureland serves as one of the
main reasons for the pasture overgrazing. The state owned pastureland is used by
herders freely leading to degradation of pastureland. There is lack of proper
mechanism in place to limit or control of number of animals according to pasture
carrying capacity. The number of livestock has sharply increased after its privatization
since 1990. In 2013 year the number of animals exceeds the carrying capacity of
pasture land by 32.5 % at national level. This leads to severe degradation of Mongolian
pastures. So, there is an urgent need to select or choose better forms of property rights
(state owned, private and owned by community), develop an appropriate pasture
management and set herder’s self-governing institutions. Therefore, the establishment
of territory (rangeland) based, herders’ self-governing organizations (Pasture User
group)is the main way and means of solving numerous urgent problems of developing
agriculture and rural society in Mongolia. By organizing collective actions like pasture
management issues, livestock breeding, veterinary services, livestock product
marketing, PUGs will create favorable condition for business activities of individuals and
will exert direct influence upon herders’ interest in growing livestock and increasing
their productivity. The territory based, herders’ communities in Mongolia are established
on the basis of defining boundaries of pasture land resources to be used, forming
resource user groups, determining property rights, making clear the institutional systems
and strengthening relationship between resource user groups and state organizations.
Only such herder organizations are able to adapt and can be more flexible to climate
and socio-economic changes.
Livestock commercialisation support better pastureland management
Tumur Erdenechuluun
Wageningen University, The Netherlands
Session:
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
This presentation is based on an earlier research project run by Mongolian and Dutch
researchers applied models of carrying capacity dynamics, and caloric terms of
trade, to better understand the relationships between the dynamics of nature and the
dynamics of the market in this volatile environment. Livestock numbers are growing
year to year again (except big losses during harsh winter conditions like 2009 and
2010): herders are taking advantage of good environmental conditions to make up for
former losses. Regrettably, over-grazing and resultant pastureland degradation are
liable to undermine their livelihoods if herds continue to increase beyond the land’s
carrying capacity. Reducing livestock numbers will not be an easy task, however; with
current herd sizes, most herders already struggle to subsist. One growing solution is for
pastoralists to assume a semi-commercial herding strategy, selling a portion of their
products for grain (and other products) at urban markets. The project applied these
models to Mongolia as a whole, and to two case study areas: Ugtaal in the north and
Gurvansaikhan in the south. The analysis shows the importance of policy attention for
livestock commercialisation. A large majority of herders simply do not have enough
animals to sustain themselves in the traditional way. They are either forced to combine
subsistence livestock-keeping with a variety of other jobs, or they can choose to
become more market-oriented herders. If they do this wisely, they can increase their
incomes, improve their health, and maintain the pastures. However, this depends on
renewed forms of land and water management institutions preventing the few rich
(and partly absentee) herders from overutilising the pastures to the detriment of their
poorer, and more market-oriented, fellow pastoralists.
Competitiveness of pastoral livestock production in case of Mongolia: Application of
Policy Analysis Matrix
Ganzorig Gonchigsumlaa
Göttingen University, Germany
Session:
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
The aim of this study is to analyze the competitiveness of livestock production in
Mongolia using Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM), and effect of policies on competitiveness.
Increasing number of livestock is causing environmental degradation for pastureland.
However, little research focused on competitiveness of livestock production in case of
Mongolia. This research fills the gap in the literatures. We interviewed 197 herder
households in Bulgan Soum, Khovd province of Mongolia in summer 2012. Cashmere
takes biggest share of cash income of the household followed by meat, hides, dairy
products and milk. The expected results, in next step of study, are to calculate the noncash income of livestock production and input use for each livestock production. We
calculate competitiveness indicators by each household using disaggregated data
and draw kernel-based distribution of them. This is unlike how ‘normal’ PAM studies do
that uses national average numbers.
Vegetation NDVI variation and its responses to climate change and LUCC during 1982
to 2013 in the dryland of Mongolian Plateau
Gui, Z., Gaohuan, L., Qinsheng, L., Chong, H.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Session:
Environment and physics of the Gobi, Beijing, Morning
The ecosystem in the Mongolian Plateau (MP) plays an important ecological role in
northern China and the whole of Northeast Asia. In this study, we investigate the
spatial-temporalpattern, processes and the degree and mechanism of vegetation
dynamics in the MP using the NOAA/AVHRR 10-day maximum NDVI composite data of
1981-1999 and MODIS 16-day maximum NDVI data of 1982-2013 by building a
conversion relationship of them. Through combining the meteorological data with land
use/cover data, the responses of vegetation NDVI to climate change and land
use/cover change was analyzed. According to the DEM, vegetation cover, climate
data, we divide the study area into several parts and then identify different change
patterns in each part. Through NDVI analysis, we found that due to the control of
monsoon climate and geological structure, the temperature, precipitation and the
vegetation are characterizing of zonality in Mongolia Plateau, consistent with the field
study data calculated in the MP in 2013. Non-vegetated area (NDVI<0.1) and sparsely
vegetated area (0.1<NDVI<0.2) account for 7.1% and 22.8%, respectively. Grassland
and forests have the proportion of 70%, which is in accordance with the land cover
data. About 58.8% of the regions show insignificant changes in annual NDVI (P = 0.05),
among of which 40.3% of the regions show NDVI increase, while 15.3% of the regions
show NDVI decrease. The change of vegetation NDVI had obvious spatial variability.
The proportion of land with NDVI<0.2 has a pronounced downward trend, illustrating an
improvement of the vegetation conditions. The proportion of land with NDVI<0.2 has a
pronounced downward trend, illustrating an improvement of the vegetation
conditions. Precipitation shows somewhat positive correlations with NDVI changes in
the arid parts of the region, while temperature in the growing season shows a
significant negative correlation with NDVI, especially in the semi-arid areas with
grassland cover. It was argued that grassland was much more sensitive to the climate.
The result of LUCC shows clearly that the changes of land cover type in different areas
had led to an increased or decreased NDVI value. Different transformations between
the land cover types have exerted important influences on the size of NDVI value and
the spatial distribution.
The current players of operational pasture mapping and information delivery in
Mongolia
Hirano, A.1, D. Tuvshinbayar2, B. Batbileg2, B. Ser-Od2, T. Matsumoto1, and T.
Higashimaki1
1Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), Japan
2Mongolian State University of Agriculture (MSUA), Mongolia
Session:
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
We briefly review five existing pasture mapping efforts in Mongolia. In addition, we
touch on our (JIRCAS/MSUA) proposed procedures for better future integration. The
existing map providers both governmental and international donor agencies include:
1) Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHE), 2) Environmental
Information Center (EIC), 3) Administration of Land Affairs, Geodesy and Cartography,
4) Mongolia LEWS (Livestock Early Warning System, formerly with Mercy Corps), and 5)
Center for Policy Research (CPR). IMHE, EIC, and ALAGaC are with Mongolian
government and Mongolia LEWS and CPR are NGO’s funded by international donor
agencies. The most authoritative pasture monitoring effort in Mongolia to date is the
one by IMHE with over 1600 ground monitoring networks at village scale across the
nation. Mongolia LEWS produces maps using simulation model. Pixel-based biomass
estimation using remote sensing technology by EIC and JIRCAS/MSUA can potentially
improve the sampling density for enhanced spatial resolution. Evaluation of available
pasture to livestock only makes sense when the pasture is linked to the actual livestock
statistics for an area of interest. The statistics are tied to a set of fixed boundaries.
ALAGaC, a national mapping authority, plays a key role in defining such boundaries.
Geographic information systems (GIS) frameworks which CPR claimed to have
established nationwide can potentially work as a suitable container for many relevant
geospatial contents. JIRCAS/MSUA effort is particularly unique in that it bridges the
strength of other individual parties in terms of spatial resolution and livestock distribution
within any given boundary. The uses of various media like radio, TV and newspaper as
well as the Internet are actively exploited for delivering map information. Further
evaluation of the effectiveness of such information delivery by the target users should
be a great asset for both information providers and recipients.
Simulation of abandoned farmland by households in the farming-pastoral zone of the
Inner Mongolia based on multi-agent modelling approach under climate pressure
Huimin Y., Xuehong, B., Huang, H.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Session:
Grassland policy and management, Beijing, morning
Marginal farmland use is a complex system that couples human and natural
environment factors together. Its status is easily susceptible to climatic hazards, social
economy, farmers’ value orientations, government policies, topographies, etc. How to
use marginal farmland is very important to maintain sustainability of land system and
local farmers’ livelihood.
Agent based modelling takes complex adaptive system as theory basis, and invents a
new way to simulate dynamic process of coupled human-nature land system with a
bottom-up perspective. It takes households as study objects, and emphasizes human’s
subjective initiatives which can present dynamics and heterogeneities spatially and
temporally, while traditional models cannot.
Marginal farmland area in farming-pastoral zone in Inner Mongolia has undergone
violent abandonment because of economic development, Green for Grain Project,
Grain Direct Subsidy Policy, transfer of agricultural labor, etc. This thesis takes Taipusi
Banner in farming-pastoral zone as study area, uses Repastj and Eclipse as platform,
synthesizes households’ willing-climate scenarios-local social economy factorsfarmlands’ endowment, and constructs multi-agent model based on households’
behavioral rules and topographic features to simulate farmland abandonment
process. 161 Questionnaires in Taipusi Banner were obtained through field survey, and
households’ behavioral rules were extracted based on these first-hand data. In this
study, we classified households into three groups based on households’ livelihood
characteristics: non-farm group, farm group and subsidy group. Different groups have
different behavior rules.
This study described farmland abandonment model using ODD protocol strictly. Model
also simulates farmland changing trend in four scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and no climate
change in IPCC report) in future 30 years. Results shows that, in no climate change
scenario, households’ farmland abandonment phenomenon can be mitigated
compared to other 3 scenarios, while B1 scenario is more farmland friendly than A1B
and A2.
Impact assessment of grassland conservation policies on herders’ livelihood in Inner
Mongolia’s grassland transects
Lin, Z., Huimin, Y., Huang, H., Bingzhen, D., Ruizi, W., Fen, L., Chao, W.
(presented by Bingzhen Du)
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Session:
Grassland policy and management, Beijing, morning
Since late 1978, the Chinese government has initiated six major grassland conservation
programs in Inner Mongolia due to severe grassland degradations in the region. The
programs include Natural Forest Resources Protection, Three-North Forest Shelterbelt
Protection, Soil and Water Conservation, Return Husbandry to Forestland or Grassland,
Beijing and Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control, and Restoration and Protection of Natural
Grassland Vegetation. The implementation of those programs has improved grassland
ecosystem condition, but also caused significant impact on the herders’ livelihood. This
research made an in-depth impact assessment of the programs on herder’s livelihood,
based on household questionnaire surveys conducted in 2008, 2011 and 2012 in Hulun
Buir, Xilin Gol and Ordos transects. The results shown that the livelihood as represented
by total land resources, grazing patterns, income structure, food consumption/capita,
fuel consumption/capita, water consumption/capita, input for grazing and farming,
animals’ consumption of hay and fodder changed after the programs’
implementation. Most of the herders were aware of the increasing tendency of natural
hazards like snowing, drought and sandy storm, but they had no preparation for
dealing with the hazards and adapting to the changing situation. Herders were
willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of grassland in order to secure livelihood, and
average amount of WTP was 17-25 RMB/mu/yr, which was 60% of willingness to accept
(WTA). The research findings can contribute to the decision making of grassland
management and designing of a operational eco-compensation scheme for the
region.
Explaining spatial variations in climate hazard impacts in western Mongolia
Nicholas Middleton
Oxford University, United Kingdom
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
Hazard management in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, morning
The winter of 2009/10 induced a mass loss of livestock known as dzud in Mongolia. We
examine spatial heterogeneity in this livestock loss in a western Mongolian province
using a semi-structured questionnaire, key informant interviews, meteorological station
data, and two datasets derived from satellite imagery. We identify marked local
variability in the impact of winter 2009/10 demonstrated by a striking difference in
livestock mortality between three Altai mountain districts and three Gobi desert
districts. We explain this pattern with reference to site-specific circumstances. We
ascertain a counter-intuitive pattern of milder winters with less snow in Mountain districts
when compared to Desert districts, a contrast that was particularly acute in the winter
of 2009/10 which was uncommonly long and hard, with particularly deep and
widespread snow cover in the Desert, but unusually mild in the Mountains. Examination
of possible drivers of dzud vulnerability at the household and community levels - wealth
and herder experience - found virtually no influence on livestock losses, although a
large majority of herder households were characterised by a general lack of
alternative income opportunities. The severity of conditions undermined many Desert
herders' coping and adaptive strategies, including communal pooling, although those
who managed to move their herds in response to the 2009/10 dzud suffered markedly
smaller livestock losses. Limited government capacity, partly influenced by remoteness,
further increased vulnerability in the Desert districts where the deep snow restricted
access to dzud relief assistance. Implications for hazard management and
governance are discussed, as are recent policy initiatives.
Comparison of drought and dzud impacts in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia
Morinaga1, Y., Chana1, Nachinshonhor２, Shinoda3, M., and Batoyun4, T.
1 Meiji University, Japan
2 Okayama University, Japan
3 Nagoya University, Japan
4 Tottori University, Japan
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
The Mongolian Plateau is characterized by cold and dry climate with the high annual
and diurnal temperature fluctuations. This climate leads to the coexistence of two
types of meteorological disasters of drought and dzud that occur in the warm and cold
seasons, respectively. Dzud is the natural disaster that leads to a mass extinction of
livestock during winter to spring. The present study aims to assess the drought and
dzud impacts on society in Mongolian and Inner Mongolian regions with different
pastoral systems.
Meteorological analysis of dzud for 1973-2011 was carried out in Dornod, Mongolia and
Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia. Monthly temperature and precipitation data from both
regions were used for the statistical analysis. The data of the annual loss of livestock for
Mongolia archived by the National Statistics Office of Mongolia was also used. Though
the data for the number of livestock was available for Inner Mongolia, the loss of
livestock data was not available.
The results of the meteorological analysis showed that the meteorological conditions of
livestock both in Dornod and Hulunbuir were extremely severe for the winter 2010/11.
The high mortality of livestock (<20%) was reported in the Dornod aimag. However,
according to the newspapers and our interviews, the dzud disaster did not seem to be
so serious in Hulunbuir. The reason for the different influence of the severe weather on
livestock will be discussed at the presentation.
Fermented mare's milk production in Mongolia, Russia and Germany
Morinaga1, Y., Bat-Oyun2, T., Baasandai3, E., Shinoda4, M., Ozaki5, T.
1 Meiji University, Japan
2 Tottori University Japan
3 Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, Mongolia
4 Nagoya University, Japan
5 Kagoshima University , Japan
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
Over the last decade, traditions related to NCM (non-cow milk) and fermented food
have been the subject of increased global attention because: (1) they carry cultural
significance that need to be preserved; (2) they are derived from traditional agriculture
and have little environmental impact; (3) the products themselves have high nutritional
value and (4) the production of these items can promote local economic growth if
sanitation and transportation problems are solved.
Mongolian pastoral nomads traditionally consume meat during the cold season and
milk products during the warm season. Among these is airag (fermented mare’s milk),
a representative of milk product in Mongolia. It is mildly alcoholic (a few percent), sour
drink usually made from fresh mare’s milk. Airag itself is both NCM and a fermented
food that has been produced in Mongolia households for thousands of years, and it is
vital to document the long-sustained tradition of airag production. To our knowledge,
neither data of airag nor the amount of mare’s milk produced over the country exists.
Given this background, the present study aims (1) to identify the regionality in activity
levels of airag production throughout Mongolia and (2) to explore the environmental
and human factors that influence variance in activity levels in different regions.
Through the Mongolian meteorological network, this is the first survey on airag targeting
2045 herders. We compared airag production between households producing it and
total households. Results revealed intensive production in central Mongolia, but less in
surrounding areas, except along the western border. High horse density in the central
steppes and forest steppes provides an eco-climatological explanation, but this density
pattern cannot explain inadequate production in eastern areas. Thus, culture and
ethnicity may account for airag’s regionality.
Furthermore, Airag is known as koumiss in Kazakhstan, some regions of Russia, and
Chigee in Inner Mongolia where Mongolian-speaking nomads live. Also, there is a
koumiss factory exporting koumiss to European countries in Germany. Airag production
of those areas will be reported in the presentation.
Climate change and consequences in Bulgan catchment, Mongolia
Oyunmunkh, B.1, Simmer, C.1, Soninkhishig, N.2
Institute, University of Bonn, Germany
2 Botany Department, National University of Mongolia, Mongolia
1 Meteorological
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
Climate change issue is vital to Mongolia due to its economy and rural people’s
livelihood depending on agriculture and livestock husbandry. The Bulgan catchment,
located in Altay-Dzungarain region, consists of high mountainous region with glacier,
permafrost, limited forest and thin soil layer, and Gobi desert. It is also a homeland of
various ethnic groups and covers territories of two sums. To understand effect of global
warming on local climate variability and extremes, moreover, its consequences, we
examined climate change perception of rural people in this area. In 2013, 100 herders
and farmers were randomly selected and questioned; also 7 local officers were
individually interviewed. Perception of rural people was compared to actual trend of
extreme indices and variability of different climatic parameters from official
meteorological stations. It is noted that station data represents specific parameters in
the valley while herders provide personal feeling of mixed parameters and spatial data
due to their seasonal movements. Results showed that most people were aware of
changes in air temperature, rainfall pattern, wind speed and extreme events. Except
air temperature, their perception matched well with instrumental records showing that
rainfall became later by a month than before. They feel cooler spring and summer but
station recorded increase of air temperature and dry spell. There is increasing trend of
windspeed in December to March and May to September. Windspeed may confuse
their feeling of air temperature. Herders distinguish seasons by their observations on the
timing of snowmelt, snowfall, grass growth and wilting, coldness, dryness, stormy and
rainy days. To them, timing of seasons was shifted too. Spring became later and longer;
also summer is later but shorter during past decades. Futhermore, they asserted about
more frequent drought and dzud. It is found that this catchment is under frequent
drought since 1990s due to global warming.
Mapping potential shallow water in the Gobi Desert using
remote sensing: Lake Ulaan Nuur
Paillou, P.1, Sternberg, T.2
Bordeaux University, France
2 Oxford University, United Kingdom
1
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
Access to water resources in desert environments is an endemic challenge in
developing countries. Shallow water is an essential resource for rural communities and
has become significant source for urban centres, agriculture and mining. In the past
conventional methodologies were used in the search for water; today advanced
remote sensing from space offer new techniques to identify and define potential
untapped groundwater in drylands. This research investigates a potential major water
resource in the Gobi Desert, Mongolia. Using remote sensing from space we integrated
topography, radar images and optical images into GIS tools to investigate and identify
potential shallow water correlated to large palaeolakes. This work integrates the
palaeoclimatic history of southern Mongolia with present water circumstances in the
region. Findings indicated Lake Ulaan Nuur as a promising site for hydro-geological
testing and water resource prospecting as measurement suggests a past lake area of
>19,000 km2 in the Mongolian Gobi.
What factors influence climate perception?
Case studies in contrasting land systems in the Gobi.
Henri Rueff
Oxford University, United Kingdom
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
Climate and people in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
Climate change perception has drawn increasing attention in recent years among
researchers working on adaptive capacity and resilience of smallholders in highly
uncertain and resource-scarce land systems. Community-based climate change
mitigation and adaptation schemes (i.e. payment for ecosystem services from carbon
sequestration) rely substantially on the communities’ awareness and participation in
the design and implementation of these schemes. With climate development policy
being increasingly demand-driven, understanding the perception of climate change
among smallholders is evermore needed. To date, studies on climate perception
mostly focus on the accuracy of perception by comparing respondents’ accounts to
real climate observations. However, little is known on how environmental and socioeconomic factors influence perception. This ongoing work analyses how climate
perception may change along a dryland gradient in the Gobi desert under two
contrasting land uses management (i.e. sedentary-China, and mobile-Mongolia
pastoral systems). This analysis aims first at understanding which environmental and
socio-economic variables have more weight in explaining climate perception. Second,
this analysis will test whether communities living in harsher environmental conditions (to
be defined) have a more consistent perception of climate change than those living in
milder conditions. We measure consistency by the spread of respondents’ answers to a
series of climate perception questions; less spread suggests more consistency in
respondents’ climate perception. NDVI will be used as a proxy to the dryland gradient
and hence climate patterns and shocks (drought, dzuds) occurrences. Respondents
(n=350) from six regions divided evenly between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia will be
used. Some preliminary results will be presented and discussed in the context of policy
implication.
Transboundary hazard risk in the Gobi desert
Troy Sternberg
Oxford University, United Kingdom
Session:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
Hazard management in the Gobi, Ulaan Baatar, morning
Transboundary hazard risk reflects how different societies interact with disaster in a
shared landscape. In the Gobi desert of northern China and southern Mongolia
recurring drought, extreme cold, wind and dust storms are the dominant hazards yet
disasters vary significantly in the two countries. Research examined national
approaches to environmental engagement and livelihoods in the desert through an
assessment of disaster risk in two Gobi communities; farmers in Gansu Province, China,
and herders in southern Mongolia. Exposure and resilience was evaluated and work
examined how risk factors are shaped by policy, economics, culture and social
memory.
Comparison between two state systems reveals how disaster risk and vulnerability are
shaped as much by human action as by the physical climatic event. China stressed
government-led disaster management whilst Mongolia emphasised adaptation to
hazards. Integrating multiple divisions within a hazard zone is essential to address risk
reduction; without this disaster mitigation remains state-specific and lacks applicability
to a wider area or global context.
Factors affecting the changes in flow discharge and sediment load in the Ordos area of
the Inner Mongolia
Tong, L., Huang, H.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Session:
Environment and physics of the Gobi, Beijing, Morning
Hydrological process in the Ordos area of the Inner Mongolia is very complex because
river flow passes through the Loess Plateau and desert areas. In addition, a great
number of soil conservation measures have been implemented in the region during the
past 30 years in order to control the regional severe soil erosion. How to scientifically
evaluate the tendency of the regional changes in river runoff and sediment load has
received considerable attention in recent years. The study takes a detailed
investigation of the changes in streamflow and sediment load during 1964 to 2012. The
gradual trend test (Mann–Kendall test) and the abrupt change test (Pettitt test) have
been used to identify the trends and the change points on annual streamflow and
sediment load for Xiliugou stream, a typical stream in the region. It is shown that a
significant decline in streamflow and sediment load occurs in the three subcatchments of the stream, abrupt changes in streamflow and sediment load occurred
during 1997–2000. There is no statistically significant trends in annual precipitation were,
however, there is a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual potential
evapotranspiration. Flow discharge and sediment load of the catchment have been
affected more significantly by human activities, while the influences of climate change
are not significant in the basin. In the 1990s, the region began to implement the
Watershed Rehabilitation Project Phase I. The project includes the construction of basic
farmland, forestation and grass, implementation of soil and water conservation
engineering, and abandonment all of the sloping land above 25 degrees. These
measures have resulted in large-scale land use and land cover change and the abrupt
decline in the annual streamflow and sediment load taking place a few years later.
During 1990 to 2009, 355.93 km2 of land have been converted to forest and grassland,
and the grassland and forest area increased respectively by 228.26 km2 and 127.67
km2, a amplitude of 6% and 35.9%, which is the main factor affecting the decline of
streamflow and sediment load in the catchment.
Values and Valuation: Ecosystem Services and Pastoral Futures
(presented by C. Upton)
Dulmaa, D.1, Nyamaa, N.2, Upton, C.3, Tumentsetseg, Sh.3
1 Mongolian Society for Range Management (MSRM), Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2 Mongolian State University of Agriculture, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
3 Department of Geography, University of Leicester, United Kingdom
Session:
Novel approaches in pasture management policy: from institutional settings to
ecosystem services, Ulaan Baatar, afternoon
This paper draws on ongoing work by the above team as part of the three year Darwin
Initiative funded project, ‘Values and Valuation: New Approaches to Conservation in
Mongolia’ (2012-2015). At the core of this project are concerns with the sustainability of
pastoral (eco)systems and livelihoods in the face of a multiple contemporary pressures,
notably climate change, mining and market pressures. Interdisciplinarity is at the core
of the approach, with the project bringing together geographers, economists,
ecologists, community development and GIS specialists with local herders, to develop
and implement novel approaches to pastoral livelihood and conservation issues in
Mongolia. In this paper we explore ecosystem service (ES) use and valuation amongst
herders, using MSRM’s well-established network of herders’ Pasture User Groups (PUGs).
We examine intersections between ecosystem services, biodiversity and well-being,
including through novel analysis of spatialities of ES, using the SOLVES model. Final we
explore the implementation of the ES framing and valuation approach and its
prospects for enhancing pastoral livelihood and ecosystem sustainability, through an
innovative payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme. Specifically, work is currently
ongoing to link selected PUGs to the Plan Vivo standard – the first such project in
Mongolian rangelands. Through these activities the project team aim to provide
government policy makers with important decision-making tools, based on data which
incorporates traditional practices, knowledge and values. They further aim to provide
local communities with tangible incentives and capacity for conservation and
sustainable resource use through the pilot PES schemes. We report on this initiative, on
its policy implications and on the critical ethical and justice dimensions of such PES
schemes for the future.
Livestock grazing and pasture degradation: A Central Asian-wide perspective
Wesche, K.
Senckenberg Museum of Natural History Görlitz, Germany,
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Leipzig, Germany
Session:
Extensive mobile pastoral systems: Global perspective - Opening addresses, Ulaan
Baatar morning
The biogeographical region Central Asia extends from the Himalaya in the south to the
Siberian Taiga in the north, thereby including Mongolia, northern China and Tibet. The
climate is highly continental climate with very dry winters, and the limited annual
precipitation is concentrated in a few summer months. Central Asia has over 6 Mio. km²
of rangelands, which have been subjected to natural grazing over evolutionary timescales. Land use is still largely based on livestock grazing. Over the last few decades,
human population sizes and thus land use intensity have increased raising concerns of
increasing degradation. Research in rangeland ecology has experienced an equally
massive increase, and a reasonably detailed picture is emerging. The talk summarises
own research in view of the available literature, and briefly summarises how the relative
importance of abiotic (climate, soil) and biotic (grazing) drivers for ecosystem functions
varies across the entire region.
For the relatively moist grass steppes and montane meadows, there is ample evidence
for strong grazing effects including overgrazing. There, weather conditions and thus
forage availability are relatively reliable allowing herds to build up until they eventually
cause degradation. In contrast, effects of grazing on vegetation cover are far less
evident for semi-arid desert steppes and harsh high-alpine regions. Abiotic controls,
namely precipitation are stronger, and regular droughts result in overall relatively low
animal numbers, and limited direct effects of grazing. Importance of land use effects
thus differs along large-scale climatic gradients, a fact that has not been fully
appreciated in the older literature making many commonly hold assumptions on
omnipresent pasture degradation in Central Asia questionable.
Compared to the spatial climatic differences, effects of temporal variability are less
well understood. Most research in global change biology still focuses on changes in
means of temperature and precipitation. Especially the latter have limited biological
meaning in Central Asia, where rains are highly variable from year to year.
Another source of uncertainty lies in the choice of the particular indicator system used
in a given degradation assessment. Indicators range from quickly responding measures
such as standing biomass or vegetation cover, to more meaningful proxies such as
plant community composition or biomass productivity. Often neglected are soil
conditions, which could well be the most crucial indicators of rangeland health.
Policy makers need reliable scientific baseline data, giving rangeland ecologists
several key challenges: We need to improve our understanding of spatial differences
and temporal variability, and we need to improve our methodological standards. It is
time for new alliances being forged between scientists of different disciplines and –
perhaps even more important – between scientists, policy makers and other
stakeholders.
Herdsmen’s perception and adaptability of extreme climatic events under government
ungrazed policy in Inner Mongolia
Xuehong, B, Huimin, Y., Huang, H.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Sessions:
Climate and people in the Gobi, Beijing, afternoon
Over grazing in Inner Mongolia damages grass resources seriously, and threatens
regeneration and sustainable use of grass resources. To improve current situation of
grass, government has put ungrazed policy into effect. Ungrazed policy is undoubtedly
threatening herdsmen’ livelihood. This thesis uses 169 questionnaire interviews to get
first-hand data of herdsmen’s perception and adaptive behaviors under extreme
climatic events and government ungrazed policy. Study area includes Bayannur City,
Baotou City, Ulanqab City, Xilin gol League and Hulunbeier City. Meteorological
observation data are collected to evaluate herdsmen’s perception ability. Also,
adaptive measures of Herdsmen and government, pasture arrangement, winter
location, summer location and adjustment of livelihood strategies are discussed.
Meteorological observation data shows that, in the past 60 years, four seasons’ mean
temperature in each year and annual mean temperature are an increase; rainfall
fluctuations in the same period are obviously, and no clear trend; number of extreme
dzuds decreases obviously; number of sandstorm events decreases. The questionnaire
data shows that, herdsmen can percept winter temperature correctly, but wrong with
spring temperature and summer temperature; the extreme dzuds and sandstorm
events can be percepted correctly. These results show that, herdsmen are more
concerned for winter season, and winter temperature plays an important role in
livestock’s management.
Herdsmen adopted adaptive behaviors during drought hazard include purchased
fodder, migration, livestock sale, while government adopted fodder subsidy to help
herdsmen; about duzds, most herdsmen chose to buy fodder during dzud hazard, and
a few hermen adopted this strategy before and after dzud hazard. Government still
helped herdsmen through fodder subsidy. Questionnaires also show that, herdsmen did
not buy insurance for climatic hazards, and government informed herdsmen about
extreme climatic event through short message and TV. Government also cleared roads
after dzuds to help herdsmen. 87% herdsmen think climatic hazard does harm to
livestocks’ health, and the main reason is that drought decreases amount of grass.
Herdsmen’s main livelihood sources also include government subsidies, outwork
salaries, and their consumptions include grazing, household items, petrol and food.
Also, 75% herdsmen don not hope their children to become herders, and this may
influence sustainability of pasture husbandry.
Extreme cold and drought over the Mongolia Plateau and their impacts on general
circulation patterns during 1951-2012
Zhaofei, L., Zhijun, Y., Lei, W.
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Session:
Environment and physics of the Gobi, Beijing, Morning
Extreme cold and drought in Mongolia Plateau were evaluated based on observed
datasets from 101 meteorological stations. Firstly, trends of air temperature and
precipitation, including frequency, intensity and duration, were detected by a nonparameter statistical test method. Climate change indices, which were defined by
Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), were applied for
these trends detection of climate change.
Then, extreme cold was analyzed by several indices calculated from minimum air
temperature. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which has been successfully used
over the world, was applied to evaluate drought over the Mongolia Plateau. This index
was calibrated and validated by local observed datasets. Trends of extreme cold and
drought over the Mongolia Plateau were evaluated.
In these two parts, both spatial and temporal characteristic of climate change over
the Mongolia Plateau were analyzed in this study.
Finally, the impacts of climate change over the Mongolia Plateau on monsoon indices
and ENSO were assessed. Several monsoon indices affected by the Mongolia high
pressure were evaluated, included the East Asian summer monsoon index, the East
Asian winter monsoon index, the South China Sea summer monsoon index, and the
South Asian summer monsoon index. Besides that, the potential relationship with ENSO
was also detected.