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S1-INVESTASI KEUANGAN (FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS) BAHAN 2 FIGURES FIGURE 1 THREE TYPES OF MARKETS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM Product markets Flow of payments for Consumption and taxes Flow of payments Goods and service Flow of production Financial Markets Flow of funds (savings) Flow of financial servi- Producing units (mainly business firms and governments) Consuming units (mainly households) ces, income, and financials claims Flow of incomes Flow of incomes Productive service Factor markets Productive service Sumber : Rose, Peter S., and, Marquis, Milton H., Money and Capital Markets, McGraww Hill (International Edition), Ninth Edition, 2006 (Book 6) p.5. FIGURE 2 METHODS OF FINANCE Metode Pembiayaan Dalam Ekonomi Primary Securities Selling $ (USD) Surplus Income Units (SIUs) : Para Investor (Pemilik Dana) Households Non-financial Business Government Foreigners Indirect (Secondary Securities DIRECT FINANCE Metode Langsung CAPITAL MARKET (Stocks, bonds and MTNs markets) Brokers and dealers, Investment banks (perusahaan sekuritas) Direct loans and investments Federal Reserve System (Bank Reserves) Bank Sentral (Monetary & Banking Authority) Otoritas Moneter & Perbankan Financial Intermediary Institutions (FII) Lembaga Keuangan Perantara (LKP) Primary Securities Issuing/ Selling $ (USD) Deficit Spending Units (DSUs) : Para Peminjam Dana (Penerbit Surat Berharga) Households Non-financial Business Government Foreigners Primary Securities Issuing/ Selling 1. Commercial Banks as Intermediary Institutions Bank Komersiil/ Umum sebagai Lembaga Perantara antara SIUs dan DSUs $ (USD) Deposits $ (USD) Buying Products 2. Nonbank (Nonbank FII) a. Mutual savings bank b. Savings and loans associations c. Credit unions d. Investments comp e. Pension funds f. Insurance companies INDIRECT FINANCE Metode Pembiayaan Tidak Langsung (USD) $ (USD) Lending/ Financing $ (USD) Buying Securities FIGURE 3 PASAR MODAL DAN PASAR UANG PASAR MODAL Brokers and Dealers Perusahaan Sekuritas Surat Berharga Dana (Investment banks) Pasar surat berharga pasar modal (stocks, bonds, MTNs) Investasi keuangan langsung (private placements Deficit Spending Units (DSUs) Debitur (debitors)/ Penerbit surat berharga (Issuers) Surat Berharga Dana Surplus Income Units (SIUs) Kreditur (creditors)/ Investor (investors) Kredit (Loans) Dana Giro, Tabungan, Deposito (Deposits) PASAR UANG Surat Berharga Perbankan (Intermadiary financial institutions banking) Perusahaan sekuritas (securities companies) Brokers and dealers Lembaga Keuangan Non Perbankan lainnya (other intermediary institutions) Surat Berharga FIGURE 4 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS A. Federal Reserves System B. Financial Intermediaries 1. Depository Institutions 1.1Commercial Banks 1.2Nonbank Thrits a. Saving and loan associations b. Saving banks c. Credit unions d. Money market funds 2. Contractual Institutions 2.1 Life insurance companies 2.2 Property-casualty insures 2.3 Pension funds 3. Investment Institutions 3.1 Investment companies (mutual funds) 3.2 Real estate investment trusts 4. Other Financial Intermediaries 4.1 Finance companies 4.2 Governments credit C. Other Financial Institutions 1. Investmen Bankers 2. Mortgage Bankers 3. Security Dealers 4. Security Brokers FIGURE 5 STRUKTUR LEMBAGA KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA Sistem Moneter (Monetary System) Otoritas Moneter Monetary Authority) Bank Indonesia ia Departemen Keuangan*) BPUG Bank Umum Perbankan BPR Modal Ventura Sistem Keuangan (Financial System) Leasing Factoring Kartu Kredit Lembaga Pembiayaan Di luar Sistem Moneter Pembiayaan Konsumen Asuransi Dana Pensiun Bursa Saham Pefindo Lembaga Lainnya *)Sebagai salah satu unsur Otoritas Moneter berdasarkan Undang-Undang Bank Indonesia Tahun 1968. Tetapi tidak lagi sebagai unsur atas dasar Undang-Undang Bank Indonesia Tahun 1999. Pegadaian Pialang Pasar Uang Kantor Pos FIGURE 5 (Lanjutan) STRUKTUR LEMBAGA KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA Asuransi Sosial Asuransi Jiwa Asuransi Kerugian Reasuransi Asuransi Broker Asuransi Broker Reasuransi Adjuster (Penilai) Konsultan Aktuaria Lembaga Keuangan Lainnya Dana Pensiun DP Pemberi Kerja Dp Lembaga Keuangan Bursa Efek Penjamin Emisi Lembaga Kliring Lembaga Pasar Modal Pedagang Perantara Reksa Dana Manajer Investasi Pefindo Perusahaan Efek Pegadaian Lbg Penunjang PM Pialang Pasar Uang Biro Adm Efek Penitipan Harta Wali Amanat Kantor Pos FIGURE 6 An Overview of Investment Alternatives I. Financial Assets A. Direct Ownership (or eguity) Securities 1. Common Stock 2. Preferred Stock 3. Asset-backed securities a. Mortgage-backes securities b. Lease-backed securities c. Receivables-backed securities B. Indirect Ownership through Investment company shares 1. Close-end investment companies 2. Open-end investment companies or mutual funds C. Monetary (or creditor) claims 1. Non-marketable a. U.S. Saving bond b. Savings accounts c. Time deposits and Certificates of deposit 2. Money market securities a. Repurchase agreements b. Banker’s acceptances 3. Bonds (or debt) securities a. Federal Bonds b. Municipal bonds c. Corporate bonds D. Contingent claims 1. Issuer-created a. Warrants b. Convertibles c. Right 2. Market-created a. Options b. Future contracs 1). Traditional Comodity futures 2). Financial futures 3). Options on Futures II. Real (or non-financial) assets A. B. C. D. Real estate Gemstones Precious metals Collectible 1. Art 2. Antigues 3. Coins 4. Stamps E. Other real assets FIGURE 7 THE STURCTURE OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS I. IOUs (I OWE YUOUs) INSTRUMENTS A. SECURITIES (TRADEABLE IOUs) Issuer a. Tresury bills (TBs) 1. Treasury bills (TBs)………………………………….………. Government 2. Central bank Certificates……………………………………… Central bank 3. Certificate of deposit (CDs)………………………………….. Banks 4. Commercial papers (CPs)…………………………………..... Firms 5. Banker’s (Trader’s) Acceptances (BAs) …………………….. Banks, Firms 6. Derivaties (option, swap, etc)………………………………… Borrowers b. Medium and long term 1. Bonds …………………………………………………….…… .Government 2. Devivaties (option, swap, stc)…………………………………. Central bank B. NON TRADEABLE IOUs 1. Promissory notes ………………………………………….…… Firms, Bank’s, Government 2. Loan and other contracts………………………………..……… Firms, Bank’s, Government C. NON SECURITIES 1. Cheque and deposit receipt………………………………….... Banks 2. Insurance receipt……………………………………………… Insurance coys 3. Pension receipt………………………………………………... Pension fund II. STOCKS 1. Firm shares placed and traded in exchanges (bourses) 2. Rights 3. Warrant III. BENCHMARK INSTRUMENTS Lowest risk and returns instruments Treasury bills Government bonds Central Bank Certificates Highly rated bank’s bonds and stock as well as deposits and loans 5. Highly rated firms’ bond and stocks 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Risks for banchmark Default risk Political-sovereign risk Exchange rate risk Interest rate risk Inflation risk Liquidity risk FIGURE 8 TYPES OF RISK CONFRONTING INVESTORS IN THE MONEY AND CAPITAL MARKET TYPE OF RISK Market Risk Reinvestment risk DEFINITION The risk that the market price (value) of an asset will decline, resulting in a capital loss when sold. Sometimes referred to as interest rate risk. The risk an investor will be forced to place earnings from a loan or security into a lower-yielding investment because interest payments on loan or security. Default risk The probability that a borrower will fail to meet one or more promised principal or interest payments on a loan or security. Inflation risk The risk that increases in the general price level will reduce the purchasing power of investor earning from a loan or security. Currency risk The risk that adverse movements in the price of one national currency vis-à-vis another will reduce the net rate of return from a foreign investment. Sometimes called exchange-rate risk. Political risk The probability that changes in governments laws or regulations will reduce the investor’s expected retur from an investmen. FIGURES 9 FINANCIAL RISKS, CONTRACTS, AND MARKETS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RISKS (Changes and Defaults) Exchange rates (per $) changes: up (depreciation/ devaluation) or down (appreciation/ revaluation) Market interest rate changes: up (capital gain) or down (capital loss) Market price changes: up or down Defaults: loss Country’s risks: default and exchange rate risks Types Spot Forward Future Currency swap Interest rate swap Option Stock index Short selling CONTRACTS AND MARKETS Contracts Types of Markets Nature Settlement risk (value date risk) Spot (OTC) Hedge (protecttion) or speculation Forward (OTC) Speculation Future (Bourse) Hedge (protection) Stock exchange (Bourse) Speculation Derivatives (OTC) Market actors: Speculation Arbitragers Speculation Hedgers Speculation Speculators A forward, or forward contract, is an agreement between a buyer and a seller to exchange a commodity or financial instrument for specified amount of cash on a prearranged future date. A future, or futures contract, is a forward contract that has been standardized and sold through an organized exchange (bourse). So, a futures contract specifies that the seller, who has the short position, will deliver some quantity of a commodity or financial instrument to the buyer, who has the long position, on a specific date, called settlement or delivery date, for a predetermined price. No payments are made initially when the contract is agreed to. The seller benefits from declines in the price of the underlying asset, while the buyer benefits from increases. Derivatives are financial contracts whose values are derived from the values of underlying financial assets (securities). Hedge is an action to take a position for eliminating or reducing or compensating the existing risk attached on the own financial assets, and usually with an amount of costs. Arbitrage is an action of buying and selling simultaneously due to different levels of prices among places, hence the actor will have profits of price differentials. Speculation is an action with a risk of gain or loss in the future. FIGURE 10 TYPE OF RISK Type of Risk Market Risk, or, Ineterest Rate Risk Reinvestment risk Default risk Inflation risk Currency risk, or, Exchange Rate Risk Political risk Definition Type of Risk The risk to investors whose Firm-spesific investment horizon is shorter risks: than the maturity of a Business risk financial asset that the market price (value) of an asset will decline, resulting in a capital loss when sold. Sometimes Financial risk referred to as interest rate risk. The risk to investors whose investment horizon exceeds Investor-spesific the maturity of a financial risk asset that they will be forced Interest rate to place earnings from that risk maturing asset into a loweryielding investment because Liquidity risk interest rates have fallen. Market risk The probability that a borrower will fail to meet one or more promised principal or interest payments on a loan or Firm & investor security. risks Event risk The risk that increases in the general price level will reduce the purchasing power of Exchange rate earnings from a loan, security, risk or other investment. PurchasingThe risk that adverse power risk movements in the price of one Definition The chance that the firm will be unable to cover its operating costs. Level is driven by the firm’s revenue stability and the structure of its operating costs (fixed vs. variable). The chance that the firm will be unable to cover its financial obligation. Level is driven by the predictability of the firm’s operating cash flows and its fixed-cost financial obligation. The chance that changes in interest rates will adversely affect the value of an investment. The chance that an investment cannot be easily liquidated at a reasonable price. The chance that the value of an investment will decline because of market factors that are independent of an the investment (such as economic, political, and social events). national currency vis-à-vis another will reduce the net rate of return from a foreign investment. Sometimes called exchange-rate risk. The probability that changes in government laws or regulations will reduce the investor’s expected return from an investment. Source: Rose, Peter S., and, Marquis, Milton H., Money and Capital Markets, McGraww Hill (international Edition), Ninth Edition, 2006 --Ch.10 p.280. Tax risk The chance that a totally unexpected event occurs that has a significant effect on the value of the firm or a specific investment. The exposure of future expected cash flows to currency exchange rate fluctuations. The chance that changing price levels caused by inflation or deflation in the economy will adversely affect the firm’sinvestment’s cash flows and value. The chance that unfavorable tax law changes will occur. Source: Gitman, Lawrence J., and, Madura, Jeff, Introduction to Finance, Addison Wesley (International Edition), 2001 Ch.4 p.87 & Ch.6 p.150.