* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Understanding the Energy/Environment Nexus Using the MARKAL
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Carbon pricing in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Energiewende in Germany wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Climate Change conference wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon governance in England wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Assessing the Latvia Energy Sector in the Context of Climate Change Economics World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund Workshop Riga, Latvia January 24-27, 2000 Gary A. Goldstein, Lorna A. Greening International Resources Group, Ltd. Janis Rekis Latvian Development Agency, Department of Energy LAA/DoE Presentation Topics Relevance of Latvia MARKAL Implications of Economic Growth on the Energy System and Carbon Emissions Evaluating the Value of Latvia Carbon Permits MARKAL Methodology Overview Conclusions LDA Relevance of Latvia MARKAL IFE-Norway Collaboration Preliminary Results Presented at IEA-ETSAP MEPRD Report on SO2 Policies and Measures to Mitigate GHG Emissions and Increase Sinks Second National Communication to the UNFCCC Energy Trading and CO2 Mitigation in the Nordic and Baltic Countries LDA Latvia MARKAL Baseline Assumptions GDP = Optimistic National Energy Program Scenario (1997) Energy Prices for Imports from International Energy Agency (Other than Electricity) Individual Power Plants Represented Technology Progress with Regard to Efficiency Improvements No Limits on Fuel Imports No Nuclear Power Forestry and Non-CO2 GHG are Not Accounted For LDA Latvia GDP Forecasts Forecast for MARKAL (1996) Ministry of Economy (Slow Development, 1999) Latvia National Energy Program (Base, 1997) GDP at average prices Ministry of Economy (Optimistic Development, 1999) Latvia Natioinal Energy Program (Optimistic, 1997) 12000 2526 2439 2246 2173 2191 2557 4000 2177 6000 3925 8000 4381 mill.US$ 10000 2000 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 0 LDA All data given in average prices of 1 9 9 3 at exchange rate 0 .6 7 4 LS/ US$ What are the Implications of Economic Growth for Carbon Emissions? Expanded Trade with the EU will Result in GDP Growth Rates Similar to the EU by 2005 Industrial Structure will Shift to Light Manufacturing and Commercial Services Carbon Emissions will Increase, but Economy will be Less Carbon Intensive Over Time LDA Energy Services According to GDP Growth World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 250 200 PJ 150 100 50 0 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Years Base Case LDA Mid Growth Low Growth 2024 Total CO2 Emissions World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 30000 25000 Th. Tons CO2 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Years LDA Base Case Base Case -5%CO2 Mid Growth Mid Growth -5%CO2 Low Growth Low Growth -5%CO2 92% level of 1990 MoE-Higher Growth Potential CO2 Permit Revenue • Cumulative CO2 Emissions Below Kyoto Level (92% of 1990) for 2008-2012 • 24.9 – 66.35 Mtons CO2 • Permit Price Range • $1.11 - $7.74/TonCO2 ($4.07 - $28.38/TonC) • Permit Revenue Range • $27.6 - $513.6 Million LDA Liepajas Project Avoided Emissions (Base Scenario) • Displaces Some Natural Gas and Dual-fired Power Generation • Avoided Emissions 2001- 2012 (TonsC) – Methane displaced – Power Sector Fuel Switching 119.298 16.965 – TOTAL 136.263 LDA 1994 LDA 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Base Case 5%CO2 Base Case Th. Tons CO2 CO2 Emissions by Fuel World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 25000 20000 15000 10000 Peat Natural Gas LPG Heavy Oil Gasoline Disel Coal 5000 0 2024 Contribution to 10% CO2 Reduction - Base Case World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 22000 Th Tons CO2 20000 18000 EFF IMPROVEMENT MOVE TO RENEW 16000 MOVE TO NUCLEAR LESS CO2/FOSSIL 14000 REMAINING 12000 10000 1994 1999 2004 2009 Years LDA 2014 2019 2024 CO2 Intensity (CO2 vs GDP) World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop Th. Tons CO2/ 1995 Mil. US$ 5.0 4.5 Base Case 4.0 Base Case -5%CO2 Mid Growth 3.5 Mid Growth -5%CO2 Low Growth 3.0 Low Growth -5%CO2 2.5 2.0 1994 1999 2004 2009 Year LDA 2014 2019 2024 Total Energy System Cost vs Cumulative CO2 BASE - High Growth World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 570 Million Tons CO2 560 550 540 530 520 510 31.74 31.74 31.74 31.75 31.75 31.75 Billion 1995 US$ LDA 31.75 31.75 31.76 31.76 CO2 Permit Price Range World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 1995$/Ton CO2 10 8 6 4 2 0 1994 1999 2004 2009 Year LDA 2014 2019 2024 Annual Revenue from Permit Sales - Base Case World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop Annual Revenue from Permit Sales - Base Case World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 40 35 40 35 25 30 20 25 1994M$ 1995M$ 30 Lowest Permit Price 15 20 Lowest HighPermit PermitPrice Price 10 15 High Permit Price 5 10 0 5 0 1994 1999 1994 1999 2004 2004 2009 Year Year LDA 2009 2014 2014 2019 2024 2019 2024 Electricity Production - Deterministic vs Stochastic w/ 5% CO2 Reduction World Bank PCF Latvia Workshop 40 35 BASE Det 30 Mid Growth Det PJ Low Growth Det BASE Stoch 25 Mid Growth Stoch Low Growth Stoch 20 15 10 1994 1999 2004 2009 YEAR LDA 2014 2019 2024 The Forest Sector as a Carbon Sink • Timber Harvesting is Increasing Relatively to 1990 • There is an Increase in Plantation Production • Latvian Forests will Remain a Net Carbon Sink During the Time Period 2000-2020 LDA MARKAL Building Blocks RESOURCES PROCESSES GENERATION ENERGY SERVICES IMPORT ELECTRICITY REFINERIES END-USE HEAT FUEL PROCESSING MINING STOCKS EMISSIONS CONTROLS EXPORT DEVICES D E M A N D S What MARKAL Does Identifies least-cost solutions for energy system planning Evaluates options within the context of the entire energy/materials system by: • balancing all supply/demand requirements • ensuring proper process/operation • monitoring capital stock turnover • adhering to environmental & policy restrictions Selects technologies based on life-cycle costs of competing alternatives What MARKAL Does (cont.) Establishes baselines and the implications of alternate futures Provides estimates of: energy/material prices demand activity technology and fuel mixes GHG and other emission levels mitigation and control costs MARKAL-MACRO Overview ENERGY SOURCES TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS & POLICIES LABOR GDP CONSUMPTION USEFUL ENERGY SERVICES MARKAL MACRO ENERGY PAYMENTS INVESTMENT CAPITAL TECHNOLOGY MIX FUEL MIX EMISSIONS SOURCES & LEVELS FUEL & EMISSION MARGINAL COSTS RANKING OF MITIGATION OPTIONS Input Form for Resource Supply Option Te mplate 1a: Spre adshe e t o f ne ce ssary MARKAL data fo r Ene rg y Carrie r Impo rts (e x cluding Ele ctricity ) ANSWER: Integrating RES, Data & Graphcis What Questions Can MARKAL Answer? How do particular technologies and policies affect GHG and emissions of other pollutants? What are the costs of meeting mitigation targets or the value of carbon rights? How do demand-side actions affect the supply-side and vice versa? How do technology and fuel mix changes resulting from environmental policies affect energy prices? What are the benefits of cooperation mechanisms? Benefits of using MARKAL for Promoting Regional Energy Strategies Builds in-country capabilities while promoting regional dialog and cooperation using a “common language.” Enables evaluation of major projects on a regional scale. Promotes taking advantage of resource diversity. Facilitates cost-effective & more rapid mitigation. Encourages for more rapid data gathering and sharing. Fosters environmentally responsible and sustainable development. Conclusions • CO2 emissions in Latvia will remain well below Kyoto commitment levels, subject to economic growth. • Permit prices are competitive, and should benefit both Latvia and buyers. • Substantial gains from permit sales seems likely. • Opportunities for further cost-effective CO2 reductions exist via AIJ. • Development of hedging strategies encourages planning for high GDP and lower CO2 emissions. • Integrated analyses can provide important insights into Climate Change policy and implications. LDA Workshop Observations • The difference between concepts and reality • Pre-workshop needs – informal email exchange between experts and HC team – terminology and key concepts information note for HC team – 1st day dialog between experts and HC team – Check-list for HC (and IC/II) on documentation needs for determination of the National picture Workshop Observations (2) • Controlled wider audience (Baltic countries) • More work to do on Baseline definition and issues – Additionality vs. Environmental Progress • Definitive success, with a great deal learned by all participants Workshop Observations (3) • Develop the idea of in-country Sustainable Development Promotion Centers Understanding of the principles of UNFCCC/Protocols (and IPCC guidelines) as they relate to the country Host country knowledge and oversight of their CC assets and opportunities Compilation of a portfolio of potential projects Point of contact for interested parties (external and internal) Tools and the necessary skills Coordinator of a network internal experts Guidance through the project development process Ensuring the quality of the credits