Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
... amount of expertise does not matter beyond a basic minimum level. There are exceptions to the Seer-sucker Theory: When experts get substantial well-summarized feedback about the accuracy of their forecasts and about the reasons why their forecasts were or were not accurate, they can improve their fo ...
... amount of expertise does not matter beyond a basic minimum level. There are exceptions to the Seer-sucker Theory: When experts get substantial well-summarized feedback about the accuracy of their forecasts and about the reasons why their forecasts were or were not accurate, they can improve their fo ...
Using the IPCC`s Assessment Report data and climate change
... • Continued emission of GHGs will cause further warming and long lasting changes “increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” • Some debate about which GHGs we must be most wary of: ...
... • Continued emission of GHGs will cause further warming and long lasting changes “increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” • Some debate about which GHGs we must be most wary of: ...
Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity
... of the conventionally accepted range (1.5 to 4.5 K per CO 2 doubling; IPCC, 2001). The land surface is more likely to damp the effects of CO 2 emissions if climate sensitivity is low, with carbon uptake by the biosphere dominated by CO 2 fertilization. Higher climate sensitivity is more likely to am ...
... of the conventionally accepted range (1.5 to 4.5 K per CO 2 doubling; IPCC, 2001). The land surface is more likely to damp the effects of CO 2 emissions if climate sensitivity is low, with carbon uptake by the biosphere dominated by CO 2 fertilization. Higher climate sensitivity is more likely to am ...
Parmesan and Yohe, 2003
... significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth centur ...
... significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth centur ...
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change
... significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth centur ...
... significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth centur ...
Chapter 3: Climate observations and projections
... Records show an annual average air temperature from 1971–2000 of approximately 55◦ F (12.8 ◦ C). The annual mean temperature in New York City has risen 2.5◦ F (1.4 ◦ C) since 1900 (Fig. 3.6A), although the rate has varied substantially. For example, the first and last 30-year periods were characteri ...
... Records show an annual average air temperature from 1971–2000 of approximately 55◦ F (12.8 ◦ C). The annual mean temperature in New York City has risen 2.5◦ F (1.4 ◦ C) since 1900 (Fig. 3.6A), although the rate has varied substantially. For example, the first and last 30-year periods were characteri ...
Teacher Pages
... who understand the intricacies of the world’s ocean currents, to meteorologists, who are adept at deciphering the complex workings of the atmosphere. ...
... who understand the intricacies of the world’s ocean currents, to meteorologists, who are adept at deciphering the complex workings of the atmosphere. ...
Polar Bears and Climate Change
... ice declines have been linked to reduced body condition and stature, altered feeding and movement patterns, reduced survival, and population declines in Polar Bears. Based upon projected future sea ice losses, a US Geological Survey (USGS) research team concluded in 2007 that twothirds of the world’ ...
... ice declines have been linked to reduced body condition and stature, altered feeding and movement patterns, reduced survival, and population declines in Polar Bears. Based upon projected future sea ice losses, a US Geological Survey (USGS) research team concluded in 2007 that twothirds of the world’ ...
Climate change and the oceans: legal and policy
... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a global average rise in sea levels of 30–40 cm by the end of the century (IPCC 2007). It has also forecasted that a changing climate, including alterations to wind patterns and storm climatology, are likely to produce more intense tropi ...
... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a global average rise in sea levels of 30–40 cm by the end of the century (IPCC 2007). It has also forecasted that a changing climate, including alterations to wind patterns and storm climatology, are likely to produce more intense tropi ...
Earth`s Energy Imbalance and Implications
... Humanity is potentially vulnerable to global temperature change, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007) reports and by innumerable authors. Although climate change is driven by many climate forcing agents and the climate system also exhibits unforced (chaoti ...
... Humanity is potentially vulnerable to global temperature change, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007) reports and by innumerable authors. Although climate change is driven by many climate forcing agents and the climate system also exhibits unforced (chaoti ...
Pinus halepensis Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the )
... generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool co ...
... generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool co ...
Written Test (7/13)
... Theme D: Environmental Hazards Refer to Sources 1 and 2 for answering the following questions. (20 marks) Statement: Human sensitivity to environmental hazards represents a combination of physical exposure, which reflects the range of potentially damaging events and their statistical variability at ...
... Theme D: Environmental Hazards Refer to Sources 1 and 2 for answering the following questions. (20 marks) Statement: Human sensitivity to environmental hazards represents a combination of physical exposure, which reflects the range of potentially damaging events and their statistical variability at ...
Infiltrating the Frozen Fortress: the importance of the cryosphere to
... two layers and can experience multiple years of constant freeze as well as seasons of complete thaw. This layer tends to be rich in ice thus increasing the latent heat needed to penetrate into the perennially frozen layer and cause thaw (Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005). Permafrost also regulates lent ...
... two layers and can experience multiple years of constant freeze as well as seasons of complete thaw. This layer tends to be rich in ice thus increasing the latent heat needed to penetrate into the perennially frozen layer and cause thaw (Shur, Hinkel, and Nelson 2005). Permafrost also regulates lent ...
Douglas Wilcox, Research and Program Development Division, Manitoba Agricultural Services
... Manitoba farmers know that vagaries of climate are the norm and the historical record documents many crop loss years resulting from extreme weather events. Management plays a part but annual weather variations, both within the growing season and in terms of extremes, are the main cause of crop yield ...
... Manitoba farmers know that vagaries of climate are the norm and the historical record documents many crop loss years resulting from extreme weather events. Management plays a part but annual weather variations, both within the growing season and in terms of extremes, are the main cause of crop yield ...
The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters
... events for the society and the environment as well as the implications on risk management (IPCC 2012a). Expertise from climate change science and disaster risk management was combined with scientists with knowledge in adaptation, vulnerability and impact analysis. This 592-page document is a cross-d ...
... events for the society and the environment as well as the implications on risk management (IPCC 2012a). Expertise from climate change science and disaster risk management was combined with scientists with knowledge in adaptation, vulnerability and impact analysis. This 592-page document is a cross-d ...
VILLAGE AT PLAYA VISTA – SEA LEVEL RISE, MESTRE GREVE
... Playa Vista Phase II – Sea Level Page 6 of 6 improper assumptions. The maps that accompany the report improperly suggest that much of the Proposed Project site would be at risk from projected sea level rise combined with a 100year storm surge in the future. Specifically, instead of applying sea lev ...
... Playa Vista Phase II – Sea Level Page 6 of 6 improper assumptions. The maps that accompany the report improperly suggest that much of the Proposed Project site would be at risk from projected sea level rise combined with a 100year storm surge in the future. Specifically, instead of applying sea lev ...
NotesWed
... 2. Geosciences Directorate , National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States. Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasin ...
... 2. Geosciences Directorate , National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States. Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasin ...
Helping the poorest to survive
... The changing climate The global average temperature from 1990 to 2005 has increased by 0.2º C per decade. The temperature increase during 2090 – 2099 is projected at 1.8º - 4.0º C relative to 1980 -19991. The “average temperature” over Nepal rose by 0.06º C per year from 1977 to 1994 2. The mean ann ...
... The changing climate The global average temperature from 1990 to 2005 has increased by 0.2º C per decade. The temperature increase during 2090 – 2099 is projected at 1.8º - 4.0º C relative to 1980 -19991. The “average temperature” over Nepal rose by 0.06º C per year from 1977 to 1994 2. The mean ann ...
Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth
... compared to equivalent residual responses calculated as differences from other forcing runs. If there is good agreement between the two time series, the global-mean response to the forcing can be assumed to be additive. Though all show seemingly relatively good agreement by eye both for the ensemble ...
... compared to equivalent residual responses calculated as differences from other forcing runs. If there is good agreement between the two time series, the global-mean response to the forcing can be assumed to be additive. Though all show seemingly relatively good agreement by eye both for the ensemble ...
The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change
... to 14.1 percent by 2055. Under the RICE model’s BAU scenario with climate damage, world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2055 would be 1.5 percent lower than in the baseline.2 In the BAU scenario, the estimated number of poor in 2055 would be modestly higher by 10 million, compared to the no climate ...
... to 14.1 percent by 2055. Under the RICE model’s BAU scenario with climate damage, world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2055 would be 1.5 percent lower than in the baseline.2 In the BAU scenario, the estimated number of poor in 2055 would be modestly higher by 10 million, compared to the no climate ...
Official PDF , 5 pages
... to 14.1 percent by 2055. Under the RICE model’s BAU scenario with climate damage, world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2055 would be 1.5 percent lower than in the baseline.2 In the BAU scenario, the estimated number of poor in 2055 would be modestly higher by 10 million, compared to the no climate ...
... to 14.1 percent by 2055. Under the RICE model’s BAU scenario with climate damage, world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2055 would be 1.5 percent lower than in the baseline.2 In the BAU scenario, the estimated number of poor in 2055 would be modestly higher by 10 million, compared to the no climate ...
Global warming hiatus
A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.