The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern
... and Thompson 2009). Yet more studies have considered geometric definitions of the vortex, collectively known as ‘‘moment diagnostics’’ or ‘‘elliptical diagnostics,’’ that measure the location, shape, and size of the vortex (Waugh 1997; Waugh and Randel 1999; Matthewman et al. 2009; Mitchell et al. 2 ...
... and Thompson 2009). Yet more studies have considered geometric definitions of the vortex, collectively known as ‘‘moment diagnostics’’ or ‘‘elliptical diagnostics,’’ that measure the location, shape, and size of the vortex (Waugh 1997; Waugh and Randel 1999; Matthewman et al. 2009; Mitchell et al. 2 ...
Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of
... it is developed represents a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other SRES storylines. The CO2 concentration therein increases from 476 ppm ...
... it is developed represents a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other SRES storylines. The CO2 concentration therein increases from 476 ppm ...
The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change
... Fifteen years ago Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology at MIT, observed, “Unfortunately, the way current [climate] models handle factors such as clouds and water vapor is disturbingly Climate models adequately arbitrary. In many instances the underlying deal with clouds. physics is simply not k ...
... Fifteen years ago Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology at MIT, observed, “Unfortunately, the way current [climate] models handle factors such as clouds and water vapor is disturbingly Climate models adequately arbitrary. In many instances the underlying deal with clouds. physics is simply not k ...
What Controls the Strength of Snow-Albedo Feedback?
... Here Q and Qnet are the incoming and net shortwave radiation at the TOA (where Q is taken to be a constant), ␣s is the surface albedo, and ␣p is the planetary albedo. Equation (1) indicates that the strength of SAF is determined by the product of two terms, a coefficient representing the variation i ...
... Here Q and Qnet are the incoming and net shortwave radiation at the TOA (where Q is taken to be a constant), ␣s is the surface albedo, and ␣p is the planetary albedo. Equation (1) indicates that the strength of SAF is determined by the product of two terms, a coefficient representing the variation i ...
Simulating Future Wheat Yields` Response to Climate Change and
... forcing (RF) is used. It is a metric that “represents the net change in the energy balance (radiative flux) of the Earth system” which results in a warming of the planet (Myhre et al. 2013). Between 1750 and 2005 RF has increased by 0.2 W/m2 mainly due to the increase in CO2 concentrations (from 27 ...
... forcing (RF) is used. It is a metric that “represents the net change in the energy balance (radiative flux) of the Earth system” which results in a warming of the planet (Myhre et al. 2013). Between 1750 and 2005 RF has increased by 0.2 W/m2 mainly due to the increase in CO2 concentrations (from 27 ...
Long-term interactions between vegetation and climate
... long timescales. It plays a biogeophysical role in the earth system with respect to the atmosphere, where the land surface represents the boundary conditions, and a biogeochemical role in the cycles of carbon and other nutrients. These interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and climate were ...
... long timescales. It plays a biogeophysical role in the earth system with respect to the atmosphere, where the land surface represents the boundary conditions, and a biogeochemical role in the cycles of carbon and other nutrients. These interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and climate were ...
Ireland’s Climate: the road ahead IR E
... work was carried out by Met Éireann and ICHEC (Irish Centre for High-End Computing) as partners in the EC-Earth international consortium. Apart from supporting the international community, this work also provides independent information on the future Irish climate in support of the National Climate ...
... work was carried out by Met Éireann and ICHEC (Irish Centre for High-End Computing) as partners in the EC-Earth international consortium. Apart from supporting the international community, this work also provides independent information on the future Irish climate in support of the National Climate ...
Uncertainty contributions to low
... scenario (αi ; i = 1, . . ., I ), decade (βj ; j = 1, . . ., J ) and calibration variant (γk ; k = 1, . . ., K), and ij k are the residual errors of the model. In an ANOVA framework, the total variance of 1Q95 ij k is characterised by the total sum of squares SST , and is decomposed into additive v ...
... scenario (αi ; i = 1, . . ., I ), decade (βj ; j = 1, . . ., J ) and calibration variant (γk ; k = 1, . . ., K), and ij k are the residual errors of the model. In an ANOVA framework, the total variance of 1Q95 ij k is characterised by the total sum of squares SST , and is decomposed into additive v ...
4.3 Approach to CLIMATE CHANGE Scenario Development
... Climate change scenarios are developed because predictions of climate change at the regional and local scale have a high degree of uncertainty. Regional scale can mean scales ranging from the sub-continental scale to country level to provincial level. Although it is likely that temperatures will ris ...
... Climate change scenarios are developed because predictions of climate change at the regional and local scale have a high degree of uncertainty. Regional scale can mean scales ranging from the sub-continental scale to country level to provincial level. Although it is likely that temperatures will ris ...
The equilibrium sensitivity of Earth`s temperature to radiation changes.
... are associated with changes in lapse rate, albedo and clouds). To first order, the feedbacks are independent of T, yielding a climate sensitivity that is constant over time and similar between many forcings. The global temperature response from different forcings is therefore approximately additive1 ...
... are associated with changes in lapse rate, albedo and clouds). To first order, the feedbacks are independent of T, yielding a climate sensitivity that is constant over time and similar between many forcings. The global temperature response from different forcings is therefore approximately additive1 ...
The Macroeconomics of Climate Change Final Report, May 2013
... In general, current modelling techniques tend to specialise. This means they tend to answer different questions from each other and can rarely be seen as alternate methods to answer the same question. It also means that no model does well across all dimensions, suggesting that further research is ne ...
... In general, current modelling techniques tend to specialise. This means they tend to answer different questions from each other and can rarely be seen as alternate methods to answer the same question. It also means that no model does well across all dimensions, suggesting that further research is ne ...
Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south
... the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis ...
... the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis ...
challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle
... the successful launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in February 2014. A recently released high-resolution dataset covers a somewhat longer period (Funk et al. 2014). Some products use rain gaug ...
... the successful launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in February 2014. A recently released high-resolution dataset covers a somewhat longer period (Funk et al. 2014). Some products use rain gaug ...
Drought in the Sahel - Lund University Publications
... ITCZ moves with the seasons, following the warmer waters northward (southward) when solar insolation reaches its maximum in the Northern (Southern) hemisphere in the boreal (austral) summer. When it reaches its northernmost position in the boreal summer it provides the Sahel with rain, when it moves ...
... ITCZ moves with the seasons, following the warmer waters northward (southward) when solar insolation reaches its maximum in the Northern (Southern) hemisphere in the boreal (austral) summer. When it reaches its northernmost position in the boreal summer it provides the Sahel with rain, when it moves ...
A Review of Downscaling Methods for Climate
... the projections are made. It is important to recognize the variety of assumptions behind the techniques used to derive such information and the limitations they impose on the results. The main tools used to project climate are General Circulation Model (GCMs), which are computer models that mathemat ...
... the projections are made. It is important to recognize the variety of assumptions behind the techniques used to derive such information and the limitations they impose on the results. The main tools used to project climate are General Circulation Model (GCMs), which are computer models that mathemat ...
A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the
... climate change impacts. Defining the mechanisms and variables related to tourists adaptation and behavior is an immediate research need to be filled. Even though recent studies point out that behavioral adaptation of tourists due to spatial, temporal and activity substitution could exert a strong in ...
... climate change impacts. Defining the mechanisms and variables related to tourists adaptation and behavior is an immediate research need to be filled. Even though recent studies point out that behavioral adaptation of tourists due to spatial, temporal and activity substitution could exert a strong in ...
A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial
... A second major challenge that arises in projections of biotic responses to climate is the uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of climate change in the 21st century and beyond. Much of this uncertainty reflects socio-economic uncertainty regarding trajectories of population growth, land use c ...
... A second major challenge that arises in projections of biotic responses to climate is the uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of climate change in the 21st century and beyond. Much of this uncertainty reflects socio-economic uncertainty regarding trajectories of population growth, land use c ...
Future Changes in Drought Characteristics over Southern South
... The impact of climate change on drought main characteristics was assessed over Southern South America. This was done through the precipitation outputs from a multi-model ensemble of 15 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Standardized Precipitation Index w ...
... The impact of climate change on drought main characteristics was assessed over Southern South America. This was done through the precipitation outputs from a multi-model ensemble of 15 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The Standardized Precipitation Index w ...
Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology
... The Amazon Basin provides a range of ecosystem services. The rivers are used for navigation and hydropower; the forest is an important global sink and store of carbon, and a store of biodiversity; evaporation provides a water vapour source for rainfall downwind. When analysing changes to this ecosys ...
... The Amazon Basin provides a range of ecosystem services. The rivers are used for navigation and hydropower; the forest is an important global sink and store of carbon, and a store of biodiversity; evaporation provides a water vapour source for rainfall downwind. When analysing changes to this ecosys ...
Weather, Traffic Accidents, and Climate Change
... These results are important because the discounted accident costs alone, at $58 billion from 2010 to 2099, are on the same order of magnitude as others that have been studied earlier such as profit changes to the agriculture industry (Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007; Fisher et al., 2012), and crime ...
... These results are important because the discounted accident costs alone, at $58 billion from 2010 to 2099, are on the same order of magnitude as others that have been studied earlier such as profit changes to the agriculture industry (Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007; Fisher et al., 2012), and crime ...
Weather, Traffic Accidents, and Climate Change
... These results are important because the discounted accident costs alone, at $58 billion from 2010 to 2099, are on the same order of magnitude as others that have been studied earlier such as profit changes to the agriculture industry (Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007; Fisher et al., 2012), and crime ...
... These results are important because the discounted accident costs alone, at $58 billion from 2010 to 2099, are on the same order of magnitude as others that have been studied earlier such as profit changes to the agriculture industry (Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007; Fisher et al., 2012), and crime ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.