On Assessing the Relative Roles of Initial and Boundary Conditions
... On a practical level, knowing the role of the initial conditions and boundary conditions will be crucial in the design of any “operational” climate forecasting system. Consider a climate forecast for a lead time of 10 years into the future. If predictability on this time scale turns out to be a firs ...
... On a practical level, knowing the role of the initial conditions and boundary conditions will be crucial in the design of any “operational” climate forecasting system. Consider a climate forecast for a lead time of 10 years into the future. If predictability on this time scale turns out to be a firs ...
Future Change of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
... predict different patterns in the eastern Pacific and NA. The authors attributed this inconsistency to inadequate TC genesis in the lower-resolution (T63) model, suggesting the importance of using very high-resolution models. Knutson et al. (2008) used a nonhydrostatic regional model with a grid spa ...
... predict different patterns in the eastern Pacific and NA. The authors attributed this inconsistency to inadequate TC genesis in the lower-resolution (T63) model, suggesting the importance of using very high-resolution models. Knutson et al. (2008) used a nonhydrostatic regional model with a grid spa ...
Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth`s
... To this end, we performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2° × 2.5° AR5 version of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixedlayer depth of 250 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols. The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the radiative forcing by nonco ...
... To this end, we performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2° × 2.5° AR5 version of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixedlayer depth of 250 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols. The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the radiative forcing by nonco ...
expedition_RSV
... Reduce the number of redundant patterns and assess statistical significance of the identified patterns Define a new approach to association analysis that trades off completeness for a smaller, simpler set of patterns and far ...
... Reduce the number of redundant patterns and assess statistical significance of the identified patterns Define a new approach to association analysis that trades off completeness for a smaller, simpler set of patterns and far ...
Burlando-Rosso_Extreme storm rainfall and climatic change
... Following Gleick ( 1989 ), the methods of analysis used to assess the effects of global change on hydrological systems can be grouped into three approaches: ( 1 ) the direct use of General Circulation Models (GCMs); (2) the use of paleoclimate analogues; and (3) the analysis of recent climate analog ...
... Following Gleick ( 1989 ), the methods of analysis used to assess the effects of global change on hydrological systems can be grouped into three approaches: ( 1 ) the direct use of General Circulation Models (GCMs); (2) the use of paleoclimate analogues; and (3) the analysis of recent climate analog ...
Modeling Carbon Dynamics of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Monsoon Asia Takehisa O
... Modeling Carbon Dynamics of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Monsoon Asia Takehisa OIKAWA and Akihiko ITO Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan Abstract—The Asiatic-Australian area is governed by the monsoon circulation, which is the most constant large wind system. In this great m ...
... Modeling Carbon Dynamics of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Monsoon Asia Takehisa OIKAWA and Akihiko ITO Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan Abstract—The Asiatic-Australian area is governed by the monsoon circulation, which is the most constant large wind system. In this great m ...
Mathematics of Climate Change - Library
... discussion (see Figure 3) The panel at MSRI’s public symposium on climate change. Front row, left to right: Nancy McFadden, at San Francisco’s Palace of Doug Ogden, Michael Peevey, Inez Fung. Back row, left to right: Daniel Kammen, Severin Fine Arts Theater on April Borenstein, Jerry McNerney, Ira R ...
... discussion (see Figure 3) The panel at MSRI’s public symposium on climate change. Front row, left to right: Nancy McFadden, at San Francisco’s Palace of Doug Ogden, Michael Peevey, Inez Fung. Back row, left to right: Daniel Kammen, Severin Fine Arts Theater on April Borenstein, Jerry McNerney, Ira R ...
Climate policy implications of the hiatus in global warming
... changes to the global average temperature, which is called “climate sensitivity,” has proven very difficult to pin down. Since the late 1970s, climate models have reported estimates of long term sensitivity from doubling atmospheric CO2 levels ranging from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C, thus covering a span from ...
... changes to the global average temperature, which is called “climate sensitivity,” has proven very difficult to pin down. Since the late 1970s, climate models have reported estimates of long term sensitivity from doubling atmospheric CO2 levels ranging from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C, thus covering a span from ...
Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on
... temperature, snow cover) and soil carbon content are computed with a single (1 m) soil layer version of the Meteorological Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2 (MOSES2), which is driven by biomass input and microbial respiration (Cox et al., 1999). MOSES-2 includes an interactive representation ...
... temperature, snow cover) and soil carbon content are computed with a single (1 m) soil layer version of the Meteorological Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2 (MOSES2), which is driven by biomass input and microbial respiration (Cox et al., 1999). MOSES-2 includes an interactive representation ...
Detecting an external influence on recent changes
... simulations using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) produce a tripling in the volume of suboxic ([O2 ] < 5 µmol kg−1 ) waters by 2500 (Schmittner et al., 2008). Ocean deoxygenation and expansion of the OMZs has also been projected to persist on millennial timescales for EMIC simula ...
... simulations using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) produce a tripling in the volume of suboxic ([O2 ] < 5 µmol kg−1 ) waters by 2500 (Schmittner et al., 2008). Ocean deoxygenation and expansion of the OMZs has also been projected to persist on millennial timescales for EMIC simula ...
Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in
... weather systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture that already resides in the atmosphere (e.g., Trenberth 1998), primarily through low-level convergence of this moisture in the vicinity of weather systems. Therefore, changes to the availability of atmospheric moisture, through projected water ...
... weather systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture that already resides in the atmosphere (e.g., Trenberth 1998), primarily through low-level convergence of this moisture in the vicinity of weather systems. Therefore, changes to the availability of atmospheric moisture, through projected water ...
Why Analyze Mental Models of Local Climate Change?
... Mozambique. Interview results are compared to data from a regional weather station. Residents discuss temperature increases, short-term and long-term precipitation changes, and altered seasonal timing. Measurable climate change in this region includes increasing temperatures and more erratic rainfal ...
... Mozambique. Interview results are compared to data from a regional weather station. Residents discuss temperature increases, short-term and long-term precipitation changes, and altered seasonal timing. Measurable climate change in this region includes increasing temperatures and more erratic rainfal ...
Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models
... • Local and regional boundaries • Short and long time horizons • Local and global environmental concerns • Rural and urban perspectives • Regional emissions and impact assessment • Probability and Decision under uncertainty • Technology IIM Ahmedabad ...
... • Local and regional boundaries • Short and long time horizons • Local and global environmental concerns • Rural and urban perspectives • Regional emissions and impact assessment • Probability and Decision under uncertainty • Technology IIM Ahmedabad ...
litreview12forword_wm_review_9feb2012
... Figure 1(a) shows the distribution of annual rainfall across West Africa and averaged from Jan 1901 to December 2009. It uses the CRU TS 2.1 data set (CRU), which is a database of monthly climatic variables constructed from observational data [Mitchell and Jones, 2005] and interpolated to a 0.5◦ gri ...
... Figure 1(a) shows the distribution of annual rainfall across West Africa and averaged from Jan 1901 to December 2009. It uses the CRU TS 2.1 data set (CRU), which is a database of monthly climatic variables constructed from observational data [Mitchell and Jones, 2005] and interpolated to a 0.5◦ gri ...
Csc_ADS_2011 - University of Minnesota
... A2: “divided world” local fuels B1: “integrated world” environmentally conscious ...
... A2: “divided world” local fuels B1: “integrated world” environmentally conscious ...
decacal climate prediction: opportunities and challenges.
... predictions should be attempted or how will they be verified. The brevity of most instrumental records furthermore means that even the basic characteristics and mechanisms of decadal variations in climate are relatively poorly documented and understood. As a consequence, the representation of natura ...
... predictions should be attempted or how will they be verified. The brevity of most instrumental records furthermore means that even the basic characteristics and mechanisms of decadal variations in climate are relatively poorly documented and understood. As a consequence, the representation of natura ...
The power spectral density of atmospheric temperature from time
... the power spectra S. f / of all complete temperature series of lengths greater than or equal to 1024 months from the climatological data base compiled by Vose et al. [18]. The yearly trend was removed by subtracting from each monthly data point the average temperature for that month in the 86 yr rec ...
... the power spectra S. f / of all complete temperature series of lengths greater than or equal to 1024 months from the climatological data base compiled by Vose et al. [18]. The yearly trend was removed by subtracting from each monthly data point the average temperature for that month in the 86 yr rec ...
The presentation template
... •Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources. •However, residents may be less well prepared for future increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather ...
... •Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources. •However, residents may be less well prepared for future increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather ...
Predicting range expansion of the map butterfly in Northern Europe
... which has the particular objective to test methods of risk assessment for biodiversity ...
... which has the particular objective to test methods of risk assessment for biodiversity ...
Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications
... assessment as some models have greater spatial resolution while others do not. Moreover, as discussed by Palmer (2012), we understand uncertainty within a single model but the notion of quantifying uncertainty from many models currently lacks any real theoretical background or basis. The outputs fro ...
... assessment as some models have greater spatial resolution while others do not. Moreover, as discussed by Palmer (2012), we understand uncertainty within a single model but the notion of quantifying uncertainty from many models currently lacks any real theoretical background or basis. The outputs fro ...
Based on CFS - Dr. R. Krishnan - Indian Institute of Tropical
... What will happen to the monsoon hydrological cycle 50-100 years from now under different scenarios? In particular, will the quantum of seasonal mean rainfall increase or decrease and if so by how much? What is the uncertainty in these projections? Can we quantify ...
... What will happen to the monsoon hydrological cycle 50-100 years from now under different scenarios? In particular, will the quantum of seasonal mean rainfall increase or decrease and if so by how much? What is the uncertainty in these projections? Can we quantify ...
Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4
... Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université de Paris, Paris, France m National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado n Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany o Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada (Manuscript received 18 May 2005, in ...
... Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université de Paris, Paris, France m National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado n Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany o Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada (Manuscript received 18 May 2005, in ...
Mosaicc - A modelling system for the assessment of agricultural impacts of climate change
... or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or ...
... or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or ...
Earth climate identification vs. anthropic global warming
... Fig. 5 shows this indicator u3 , centered on its mean value and sign changed, because volcanism is known to impact the temperatures downwards. 3. An identifiable model 3.1. General circulation models (GCM) GMC’s are knowledge models, which can be simulated by finite elements, including thousands of in ...
... Fig. 5 shows this indicator u3 , centered on its mean value and sign changed, because volcanism is known to impact the temperatures downwards. 3. An identifiable model 3.1. General circulation models (GCM) GMC’s are knowledge models, which can be simulated by finite elements, including thousands of in ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.