Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates
... Hewson [1998], has been applied to 6-hourly reanalysis and model data. This method identifies frontal points using a thermal front parameter [Renard and Clarke, 1965] based on the 850 hPa wet-bulb potential temperature. The thermal front parameter field is masked using a threshold of −8 × 10−12 km−2 [ ...
... Hewson [1998], has been applied to 6-hourly reanalysis and model data. This method identifies frontal points using a thermal front parameter [Renard and Clarke, 1965] based on the 850 hPa wet-bulb potential temperature. The thermal front parameter field is masked using a threshold of −8 × 10−12 km−2 [ ...
severe weather
... which include heavy precipitation, droughts, heat-waves, floods and storms. Our ability to predict the weather with any confidence for more than a few weeks is currently limited.1 Severe weather events are likely to increase in the near future and pose an increasing threat to food security (see box ...
... which include heavy precipitation, droughts, heat-waves, floods and storms. Our ability to predict the weather with any confidence for more than a few weeks is currently limited.1 Severe weather events are likely to increase in the near future and pose an increasing threat to food security (see box ...
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
... modeled CMIP5 ice extent spanning 1900 to 2100. At the start of the 20th century, the September ice extent from all ensemble members ranges from 4.4 106 km2 (CanESM2) to 11.6 106 km2 (CSIRO Mk3). This is similar to the range found in the full suite of CMIP3 ensemble members (47), 5.1 to 12.1 1 ...
... modeled CMIP5 ice extent spanning 1900 to 2100. At the start of the 20th century, the September ice extent from all ensemble members ranges from 4.4 106 km2 (CanESM2) to 11.6 106 km2 (CSIRO Mk3). This is similar to the range found in the full suite of CMIP3 ensemble members (47), 5.1 to 12.1 1 ...
Climate change presents increased potential for
... Models (GCMs) from 1971-‐2000 using historical forcing, and for the 2041-‐2070 period using the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing. The 17 GCMs comprised all CMIP5 models that co ...
... Models (GCMs) from 1971-‐2000 using historical forcing, and for the 2041-‐2070 period using the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing. The 17 GCMs comprised all CMIP5 models that co ...
Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95
... The first step in our analysis was to assemble the baseline climatology. Ten complete years of monthly-mean temperature and total precipitation from the 1960s and 1970s (1964–68; 1970; 1972; 1974; and 1976–77) were selected from the Global Historical Climatology Network (Vose et al. 1992). Ten years ...
... The first step in our analysis was to assemble the baseline climatology. Ten complete years of monthly-mean temperature and total precipitation from the 1960s and 1970s (1964–68; 1970; 1972; 1974; and 1976–77) were selected from the Global Historical Climatology Network (Vose et al. 1992). Ten years ...
Increasing bioenergy production on arable land - CLM
... and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicate ...
... and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicate ...
3. STRAW MAN 1: A PRELIMINARY VIEW OF THE TROPICAL
... drifts toward unrealistic values for important climate parameters. These models are not convergent on a realistic climate state even for perfectly known initial and boundary conditions and, consequently, cannot be used for paleoclimate modeling in the deep past. It is critical, therefore, to use a C ...
... drifts toward unrealistic values for important climate parameters. These models are not convergent on a realistic climate state even for perfectly known initial and boundary conditions and, consequently, cannot be used for paleoclimate modeling in the deep past. It is critical, therefore, to use a C ...
`Future` climate and impacts - Climatic Research Unit
... Precipitation is increasing slightly in the present climate, while it is decreasing significantly in the ‘mid-century’ climate. Precipitation extremes do not show a clear trend. For Attica and the surrounding forest areas, a significant increase in peri-urban forest fires risk is expected. Mortality ...
... Precipitation is increasing slightly in the present climate, while it is decreasing significantly in the ‘mid-century’ climate. Precipitation extremes do not show a clear trend. For Attica and the surrounding forest areas, a significant increase in peri-urban forest fires risk is expected. Mortality ...
Changes in subduction in the South Atlantic Ocean during the
... increased winds have led to reduced CO2 uptake over 1981– 2004. Finally, the question of whether the Southern Ocean continues to take up the same fraction of CO2 emissions in the future can only be calculated in a model with a full carbon cycle. Fung et al. [2005] show results from such a model embe ...
... increased winds have led to reduced CO2 uptake over 1981– 2004. Finally, the question of whether the Southern Ocean continues to take up the same fraction of CO2 emissions in the future can only be calculated in a model with a full carbon cycle. Fung et al. [2005] show results from such a model embe ...
The impact of Atmospheric and Oceanic Resolution on
... – Climate signal and noise are not Independent – Examples: • Atmospheric model simulations with prescribed SST • Climate change simulations ...
... – Climate signal and noise are not Independent – Examples: • Atmospheric model simulations with prescribed SST • Climate change simulations ...
The integrated Earth system model version 1
... change on building energy use have been evaluated using IA models by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days from air temperature outputted from climate models (Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009; van Ruijven et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2013, 2014; Yu et al., 2014). The feedback from the cl ...
... change on building energy use have been evaluated using IA models by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days from air temperature outputted from climate models (Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009; van Ruijven et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2013, 2014; Yu et al., 2014). The feedback from the cl ...
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
... great uncertainties that affect the simulated trend (e.g., climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the deep-ocean, and aerosol forcing strength) make this a highly dubious statement. For example, a model with a relatively high climate sensitivity can simulate the 20th century climate changes rea ...
... great uncertainties that affect the simulated trend (e.g., climate sensitivity, rate of heat uptake by the deep-ocean, and aerosol forcing strength) make this a highly dubious statement. For example, a model with a relatively high climate sensitivity can simulate the 20th century climate changes rea ...
NG-ACCESS
... climate and Earth system simulator being developed as a joint initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in cooperation with the university community in Australia. Establishment phase objectives were to (i) enable the Bur ...
... climate and Earth system simulator being developed as a joint initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in cooperation with the university community in Australia. Establishment phase objectives were to (i) enable the Bur ...
CIAS
... required to realise the vision outlined in sections 1 and 2. The rest of this paper describes only the initial version of the modelling system. Each time a new component module is added to the system, a precise testing procedure is followed to verify that outputs are not altered by the process of c ...
... required to realise the vision outlined in sections 1 and 2. The rest of this paper describes only the initial version of the modelling system. Each time a new component module is added to the system, a precise testing procedure is followed to verify that outputs are not altered by the process of c ...
Climate change management in drainage systems – changes
... levels for Danish waters. Generally it is expected that the temperature will rise, there will be more precipitation, evaporation will increase and sea level will rise. It is also expected that there will be more rain events with high intensity and stronger wind. Forecasts for temperature, precipitat ...
... levels for Danish waters. Generally it is expected that the temperature will rise, there will be more precipitation, evaporation will increase and sea level will rise. It is also expected that there will be more rain events with high intensity and stronger wind. Forecasts for temperature, precipitat ...
PDF only - at www.arxiv.org.
... gases will also have a substantial effect on future climates, although it is highly uncertain whether this will contribute to intensifying or alleviating the global warming threat (2). Such uncertainties are well recognized in the state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) (3) and are typica ...
... gases will also have a substantial effect on future climates, although it is highly uncertain whether this will contribute to intensifying or alleviating the global warming threat (2). Such uncertainties are well recognized in the state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) (3) and are typica ...
Probabilistic projections of climate change over China - HAL-Insu
... group at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (www.mad.zmaw.de/projects-at-md/ensembles/). Model performance is assessed by the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit time series ...
... group at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (www.mad.zmaw.de/projects-at-md/ensembles/). Model performance is assessed by the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit time series ...
Projection of Climatic Change over Japan Due to Global Warming
... climate (2081 to 2100). The double-nesting technique was utilized for the integrations. For an outermost model, the Coupled General Circulation Model (MRICGCM2) (Yukimoto et al. 2001), with a horizontal resolution of T42 (280km) and 30 vertical layers, was used. The MRI-CGCM2 provided the boundary c ...
... climate (2081 to 2100). The double-nesting technique was utilized for the integrations. For an outermost model, the Coupled General Circulation Model (MRICGCM2) (Yukimoto et al. 2001), with a horizontal resolution of T42 (280km) and 30 vertical layers, was used. The MRI-CGCM2 provided the boundary c ...
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the
... models predict increased frequencies of warm events by the end of this century. Finally, using the probabilities wt, we generated 1000 stochastic population projections for each of the 10 climate models (thus 10000 population trajectories), and calculated the probability of quasi-extinction (defined ...
... models predict increased frequencies of warm events by the end of this century. Finally, using the probabilities wt, we generated 1000 stochastic population projections for each of the 10 climate models (thus 10000 population trajectories), and calculated the probability of quasi-extinction (defined ...
Hybrid statistical–dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting method
... atmospheric and oceanographic physics: information about current conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature) is used to initialise the model, and the model estimates the future climate several months or years ahead. Global climate models are more complex and difficult to run but can potentially provi ...
... atmospheric and oceanographic physics: information about current conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature) is used to initialise the model, and the model estimates the future climate several months or years ahead. Global climate models are more complex and difficult to run but can potentially provi ...
the whole inaugural address as pdf
... you a sneak preview. Figure 1 also shows the possible trends for each topic assuming no change in policy. In this situation, we can expect a further decline in the quality of the global environment, as shown for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions. For hunger – given the expected economic grow ...
... you a sneak preview. Figure 1 also shows the possible trends for each topic assuming no change in policy. In this situation, we can expect a further decline in the quality of the global environment, as shown for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions. For hunger – given the expected economic grow ...
Challenges and Opportunities in Water Cycle Research: WCRP
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
The real holes in climate science
... generally the most important in replenishing water supplies. The IPCC simulations failed to provide any robust projection of how winter precipitation will change at the end of the current century for large parts of all continents2. Even worse, climate models seemingly underestimate how much precipit ...
... generally the most important in replenishing water supplies. The IPCC simulations failed to provide any robust projection of how winter precipitation will change at the end of the current century for large parts of all continents2. Even worse, climate models seemingly underestimate how much precipit ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.