The real holes in climate science
... generally the most important in replenishing water supplies. The IPCC simulations failed to provide any robust projection of how winter precipitation will change at the end of the current century for large parts of all continents2. Even worse, climate models seemingly underestimate how much precipit ...
... generally the most important in replenishing water supplies. The IPCC simulations failed to provide any robust projection of how winter precipitation will change at the end of the current century for large parts of all continents2. Even worse, climate models seemingly underestimate how much precipit ...
Challenges and Opportunities in Water Cycle Research: WCRP
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
Challenges and Opportunities in Water Cycle Research
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
... needed most. Blended or hybrid satellite and in situ products are also growing in number and attempt to capitalize on the strengths of each. Some are produced in a model framework and may involve data assimilation. Nevertheless, with multiple products synthesized in the framework of the overall wate ...
Document
... 0.3 W m-2. This implies F2=3.6 0.2 W m-2, statistically consistent with though less precise than the value of 3.74 0.04 W m-2 diagnosed by other procedures. Our method is much simpler, requiring no special diagnostics, and it includes stratospheric adjustment. The regression slope for N again ...
... 0.3 W m-2. This implies F2=3.6 0.2 W m-2, statistically consistent with though less precise than the value of 3.74 0.04 W m-2 diagnosed by other procedures. Our method is much simpler, requiring no special diagnostics, and it includes stratospheric adjustment. The regression slope for N again ...
Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a
... a deliberate global-scale manipulation of the radiative budget of the Earth may counterbalance the effects of continued greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature, but may also result in undesirable side effects for crucial parts of the Earth system and humankind. An SRM-engineered clima ...
... a deliberate global-scale manipulation of the radiative budget of the Earth may counterbalance the effects of continued greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature, but may also result in undesirable side effects for crucial parts of the Earth system and humankind. An SRM-engineered clima ...
Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme
... region (equatorial central Pacific) obtained from the control run of CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM. It has a peak around w = 0 and tails for both stronger upward and downward motion regimes. This shape of PDF is qualitatively the same for different regions from different models. Note that the positive w repr ...
... region (equatorial central Pacific) obtained from the control run of CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM. It has a peak around w = 0 and tails for both stronger upward and downward motion regimes. This shape of PDF is qualitatively the same for different regions from different models. Note that the positive w repr ...
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
... has shown little change. The observed September (end of austral winter) trend from 1973 – 2006 is essentially zero. The corresponding March trend is 1.7 ± 2.3%/decade, but given the high variability in the Antarctic March extent, the trend is not statistically significant. [22] This is consistent wi ...
... has shown little change. The observed September (end of austral winter) trend from 1973 – 2006 is essentially zero. The corresponding March trend is 1.7 ± 2.3%/decade, but given the high variability in the Antarctic March extent, the trend is not statistically significant. [22] This is consistent wi ...
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
... has shown little change. The observed September (end of austral winter) trend from 1973 – 2006 is essentially zero. The corresponding March trend is 1.7 ± 2.3%/decade, but given the high variability in the Antarctic March extent, the trend is not statistically significant. [22] This is consistent wi ...
... has shown little change. The observed September (end of austral winter) trend from 1973 – 2006 is essentially zero. The corresponding March trend is 1.7 ± 2.3%/decade, but given the high variability in the Antarctic March extent, the trend is not statistically significant. [22] This is consistent wi ...
LLoyd's Science of Risk Conference Booklet 2012
... Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability Losses from weather related risks are preconditioned by slowly evolving changes in ocean temperatures. Not only do these changes influence how active Atlantic Hurricanes will be over a given decade they are ...
... Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability Losses from weather related risks are preconditioned by slowly evolving changes in ocean temperatures. Not only do these changes influence how active Atlantic Hurricanes will be over a given decade they are ...
A climate of uncertainty: accounting for error in climate variables for
... of the PRISM climate-elevation regression function. The jackknife method involved removing, in turn, each station value from the data set, estimating it in its absence, and returning the station to the data set. While jack-knife error estimation is a useful independent measure of interpolation uncer ...
... of the PRISM climate-elevation regression function. The jackknife method involved removing, in turn, each station value from the data set, estimating it in its absence, and returning the station to the data set. While jack-knife error estimation is a useful independent measure of interpolation uncer ...
Chapter 16 PowerPoint document
... GHGs are likely to be controlled in different ways. Other GHGs (CO2 emissions from land-use changes, other well-mixed GHGs, and aerosols) are included as exogenous trends in radiative forcing. ...
... GHGs are likely to be controlled in different ways. Other GHGs (CO2 emissions from land-use changes, other well-mixed GHGs, and aerosols) are included as exogenous trends in radiative forcing. ...
A probabilistic analysis of human influence on
... remains: how strong is this evidence (Bowman et al., 2010)? Even given these and other extraordinary statistics as well as the body of evidence synthesised in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007, 2013) regarding climate trends, detection and attribution, public acceptance of hu ...
... remains: how strong is this evidence (Bowman et al., 2010)? Even given these and other extraordinary statistics as well as the body of evidence synthesised in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007, 2013) regarding climate trends, detection and attribution, public acceptance of hu ...
Adaptation to Global Warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know?
... provinces, and nations. The IPCC argues that current global circulation models (GCMs), with typical horizontal resolutions of 100–500 kilometers, provide “credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above”; phrasing that nods to the debates in the ...
... provinces, and nations. The IPCC argues that current global circulation models (GCMs), with typical horizontal resolutions of 100–500 kilometers, provide “credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above”; phrasing that nods to the debates in the ...
Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs
... et al., 2005). Moreover, changes in topography and climate variables are not the only factors accounting for variability in agriculture soils and socioeconomic drivers also often differ over small distances, influencing agro-ecosystems, increasing uncertainties, and making forecasting and assessment ...
... et al., 2005). Moreover, changes in topography and climate variables are not the only factors accounting for variability in agriculture soils and socioeconomic drivers also often differ over small distances, influencing agro-ecosystems, increasing uncertainties, and making forecasting and assessment ...
Chapter 1
... product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by p1 and p2 the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively. The manufacturer has a contract calling for at least m units of product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at most u units of product 2 may be produced ...
... product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by p1 and p2 the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively. The manufacturer has a contract calling for at least m units of product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at most u units of product 2 may be produced ...
The impact of climate change on growth of local white spruce
... originated from sites receiving more precipitation generally showed higher tree growth than the local sources. We predict that the adaptive lag currently related to precipitation will increase under global warming conditions. Simulations of growth under various scenarios of climate change indicated ...
... originated from sites receiving more precipitation generally showed higher tree growth than the local sources. We predict that the adaptive lag currently related to precipitation will increase under global warming conditions. Simulations of growth under various scenarios of climate change indicated ...
Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large
... to improve convergence during the model fitting stage and to allow for easier prior specification. The intercept, β0,t, was allowed to vary through time; these random year effects recognize that all observations from a particular year share the same climate covariates and thus are not independent. W ...
... to improve convergence during the model fitting stage and to allow for easier prior specification. The intercept, β0,t, was allowed to vary through time; these random year effects recognize that all observations from a particular year share the same climate covariates and thus are not independent. W ...
- University of Bath Opus
... In August 2003, 14,800 heat-related deaths occurred in Paris [1] during what is considered the warmest summer since at least 1500 [2–5]. These deaths resulted not only from unusually high peak temperatures and a reduction in the diurnal temperature swing, but also from a failure of buildings to succ ...
... In August 2003, 14,800 heat-related deaths occurred in Paris [1] during what is considered the warmest summer since at least 1500 [2–5]. These deaths resulted not only from unusually high peak temperatures and a reduction in the diurnal temperature swing, but also from a failure of buildings to succ ...
Climate change scenario for Costa Rican montane forests
... transect across Costa Rica is at high elevations on the leeward side (Figure 3, zone L3); the same is true for maximum temperatures. However, mean minimum temperatures increase steadily from the windward to the leeward side. This increase may be associated with enhanced cloud cover on the leeward si ...
... transect across Costa Rica is at high elevations on the leeward side (Figure 3, zone L3); the same is true for maximum temperatures. However, mean minimum temperatures increase steadily from the windward to the leeward side. This increase may be associated with enhanced cloud cover on the leeward si ...
Predicting and understanding ecosystem responses to climate
... al. 2005). Of course, the magnitude of these responses varies with the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, as well as the resilience of the community or ecosystem and Figure 2. Mean annual temperature anomaly, 2000–2006 versus 1951–1980. The other local conditions, but in orange regions, ...
... al. 2005). Of course, the magnitude of these responses varies with the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, as well as the resilience of the community or ecosystem and Figure 2. Mean annual temperature anomaly, 2000–2006 versus 1951–1980. The other local conditions, but in orange regions, ...
Climate
... al. 2005). Of course, the magnitude of these responses varies with the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, as well as the resilience of the community or ecosystem and Figure 2. Mean annual temperature anomaly, 2000–2006 versus 1951–1980. The other local conditions, but in orange regions, ...
... al. 2005). Of course, the magnitude of these responses varies with the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, as well as the resilience of the community or ecosystem and Figure 2. Mean annual temperature anomaly, 2000–2006 versus 1951–1980. The other local conditions, but in orange regions, ...
Likewise, any variation in weather or climatic conditions adversely
... humidity and precipitation before concentrating on their impact assessment or relationship with abiotic and biotic components. The projects encompassing effect of weather parameters on abundance of flora and fauna and seasonality, movements, breeding, feeding and other behavior patterns falls under ...
... humidity and precipitation before concentrating on their impact assessment or relationship with abiotic and biotic components. The projects encompassing effect of weather parameters on abundance of flora and fauna and seasonality, movements, breeding, feeding and other behavior patterns falls under ...
Module 1
... shown that changeable weather can make it hard to concentrate, cloudy skies slow down reflexes, and high humidity with hot, dry winds makes many people irritable and snappy. Some suggest that the weather also leaves its mark on character, giving people from the same region similar temperaments, alth ...
... shown that changeable weather can make it hard to concentrate, cloudy skies slow down reflexes, and high humidity with hot, dry winds makes many people irritable and snappy. Some suggest that the weather also leaves its mark on character, giving people from the same region similar temperaments, alth ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.