ESTIMATION OF HEAT WAVE INDICES FROM CLIMATE MODEL
... atmospheric CO2 by the middle of the twenty-first century. This effect when combined with the probable increases in other GHGs, would produce a major change in Earth’s climate. [10] Only since the World War II the systematic study of the atmosphere and oceans become feasible on a global scale, mainl ...
... atmospheric CO2 by the middle of the twenty-first century. This effect when combined with the probable increases in other GHGs, would produce a major change in Earth’s climate. [10] Only since the World War II the systematic study of the atmosphere and oceans become feasible on a global scale, mainl ...
Climate –carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C MIP
... of about 3°x3°, with 19 vertical levels (Hourdin et al., 2005). The ORCALIM ocean and seaice model has a resolution of 0.5° to 2° with 31 vertical levels in the ocean (Madec et al., 1998). No flux correction is applied. ORCHIDEE is a global vegetation model which calculates here for 13 PFTs, the en ...
... of about 3°x3°, with 19 vertical levels (Hourdin et al., 2005). The ORCALIM ocean and seaice model has a resolution of 0.5° to 2° with 31 vertical levels in the ocean (Madec et al., 1998). No flux correction is applied. ORCHIDEE is a global vegetation model which calculates here for 13 PFTs, the en ...
IMPACTS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE ON CLIMATE AND FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITIES
... found associated with the wind effect on near-surface temperatures. If there is a trend in wind speeds, for example, there will be a diagnosed trend in temperatures measured at one level, even if there were no warming or cooling through the lower atmosphere. This is because wind alters the vertical ...
... found associated with the wind effect on near-surface temperatures. If there is a trend in wind speeds, for example, there will be a diagnosed trend in temperatures measured at one level, even if there were no warming or cooling through the lower atmosphere. This is because wind alters the vertical ...
Reference Document - World Health Organization
... projected changes above the 1961-1990 period, smoothed with a 30-year Gaussian filter. The multimodel mean is the average across about 20 models (thick line). The figures also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and, where available, the a ...
... projected changes above the 1961-1990 period, smoothed with a 30-year Gaussian filter. The multimodel mean is the average across about 20 models (thick line). The figures also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and, where available, the a ...
Module e – Impact assessment
... • ISO 14040 definition: assigning impact categories into one or more sets • Sorting: grouping on a nominal basis – e.g., global versus regional • Ranking: grouping on an ordinal basis – e.g., high, medium and low priority – based on value choices ...
... • ISO 14040 definition: assigning impact categories into one or more sets • Sorting: grouping on a nominal basis – e.g., global versus regional • Ranking: grouping on an ordinal basis – e.g., high, medium and low priority – based on value choices ...
Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments: Working Paper 51 (556 kB) (opens in new window)
... regional model that simulates the tropical cyclone climatology conditioned on a particular GCM projection. These scenarios are denoted “Dynamical Model” scenarios. The second type also uses a range of GCM projections, but explores a broader range of the uncertainty in the link to basin tropical cycl ...
... regional model that simulates the tropical cyclone climatology conditioned on a particular GCM projection. These scenarios are denoted “Dynamical Model” scenarios. The second type also uses a range of GCM projections, but explores a broader range of the uncertainty in the link to basin tropical cycl ...
GLY 371: Meteorology
... Students enrolled in GLY 371 and majoring in Adolescence Education: Earth Science 7-12 will focus on acquiring knowledge and developing skills aligned with learning outcomes from the College's Conceptual Framework for Teacher Education and those established by the National Science Teachers Associati ...
... Students enrolled in GLY 371 and majoring in Adolescence Education: Earth Science 7-12 will focus on acquiring knowledge and developing skills aligned with learning outcomes from the College's Conceptual Framework for Teacher Education and those established by the National Science Teachers Associati ...
Lecture A1
... return to “normal” after GHG concentration has returned to pre-industrial? • Could a THC collapse occur much faster than indicated by the extant models? • Which, if any, of the models is correct? ...
... return to “normal” after GHG concentration has returned to pre-industrial? • Could a THC collapse occur much faster than indicated by the extant models? • Which, if any, of the models is correct? ...
Weather, Climate, and Worldviews: The Sources
... in Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth). But other dimensions of weather—notably patterns of precipitation that result in droughts and floods—are of great importance in characterizations of climate change and may also act as potent signals to individuals about larger trends in climate. Therefore a ...
... in Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth). But other dimensions of weather—notably patterns of precipitation that result in droughts and floods—are of great importance in characterizations of climate change and may also act as potent signals to individuals about larger trends in climate. Therefore a ...
Global trends in extreme precipitation
... 19 subsampled data sets of CMIP5 on global as well as continental scales, showing observations (HadEX2) as blue circles. The boxplots show the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile and maximum values obtained from the climate models. As seen in Fig. 2a., the global average of extreme pre ...
... 19 subsampled data sets of CMIP5 on global as well as continental scales, showing observations (HadEX2) as blue circles. The boxplots show the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile and maximum values obtained from the climate models. As seen in Fig. 2a., the global average of extreme pre ...
CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the
... emission scenario. What are we to make of such statements and just how trustworthy are these projections? The climate system is considerably more complex than the simple greenhouse paradigm described above. System feedbacks include changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean (redistributi ...
... emission scenario. What are we to make of such statements and just how trustworthy are these projections? The climate system is considerably more complex than the simple greenhouse paradigm described above. System feedbacks include changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean (redistributi ...
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1
... A schematic of the CMIP5-experiments with NorESM1-M is shown by Bentsen et al. (2012) in their Fig. 1. Throughout this paper, we use “piControl” to identify the 500 yr control simulation with constant external forcing prescribed at 1850 conditions. This simulation starts in year 700 after a spin-up ...
... A schematic of the CMIP5-experiments with NorESM1-M is shown by Bentsen et al. (2012) in their Fig. 1. Throughout this paper, we use “piControl” to identify the 500 yr control simulation with constant external forcing prescribed at 1850 conditions. This simulation starts in year 700 after a spin-up ...
Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in
... applied in the research. The method estimates the other variables (radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, and air pressure) based on the observed maximum and minimum temperature in the catchments and from their geographical locations. For Nyando, the weighted average rainfall was calculated using ...
... applied in the research. The method estimates the other variables (radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, and air pressure) based on the observed maximum and minimum temperature in the catchments and from their geographical locations. For Nyando, the weighted average rainfall was calculated using ...
Historical and Idealized Climate Model Experiments: An EMIC
... system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emis ...
... system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emis ...
PDF
... approaches, such as CAPRI, take changes in yield levels automatically into account by modelling area allocation as a function of gross margins (Britz, 2005). Nonetheless, such approaches require substantial data on country level production costs and do not fit the aspired simple structure of ESIM. ...
... approaches, such as CAPRI, take changes in yield levels automatically into account by modelling area allocation as a function of gross margins (Britz, 2005). Nonetheless, such approaches require substantial data on country level production costs and do not fit the aspired simple structure of ESIM. ...
NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
... James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially ex ...
... James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially ex ...
Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the
... British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK. ...
... British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK. ...
Global Warming: Scientific Basis and Christian Responses
... from the atmosphere as precipitation. Unlike water vapor, the global, annual-average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is unaffected by the state of the atmosphere itself. In the absence of human activity, annual average CO2 concentrations are stable on time scales of millennia, as we c ...
... from the atmosphere as precipitation. Unlike water vapor, the global, annual-average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is unaffected by the state of the atmosphere itself. In the absence of human activity, annual average CO2 concentrations are stable on time scales of millennia, as we c ...
paper
... climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior). The model estimates and survey results were strongly correlated within each geographic area. Across the 11 variables and accounting for mode differences, the mean absolute difference between model estimates and validation ...
... climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior). The model estimates and survey results were strongly correlated within each geographic area. Across the 11 variables and accounting for mode differences, the mean absolute difference between model estimates and validation ...
Earth`s future climate
... El Niño and its cold-episode sister La Niña are the strongest interannual climate signals on the planet. Global damage estimates for the 1997/98 major El Niño event exceed £20 billion. Archaeological evidence suggests that El Niños and La Niñas have been occurring for at least 15 000 years (Rod ...
... El Niño and its cold-episode sister La Niña are the strongest interannual climate signals on the planet. Global damage estimates for the 1997/98 major El Niño event exceed £20 billion. Archaeological evidence suggests that El Niños and La Niñas have been occurring for at least 15 000 years (Rod ...
Future Weather
... Future Weather includes high resolution modeling of the climate using hydrostatic regional climate models targeted at scales of 10-1000 km, and using global climate models targeted at scales of 200 km to the continental and global scale. In addition, we performed a case study with an even higher res ...
... Future Weather includes high resolution modeling of the climate using hydrostatic regional climate models targeted at scales of 10-1000 km, and using global climate models targeted at scales of 200 km to the continental and global scale. In addition, we performed a case study with an even higher res ...
"Greenhouse warming? What greenhouse warming?" PDF
... Atmospheric pressure decreases approximately exponentially with height: 100 millibars corresponds roughly to 16 km; 200 mb to 12 km; 500 mb to 6 km; and 1000 mb to the surface. Predicted greenhouse-gas warming visibly peaks strongly in the tropical troposphere near the τ=1 characteristic emission le ...
... Atmospheric pressure decreases approximately exponentially with height: 100 millibars corresponds roughly to 16 km; 200 mb to 12 km; 500 mb to 6 km; and 1000 mb to the surface. Predicted greenhouse-gas warming visibly peaks strongly in the tropical troposphere near the τ=1 characteristic emission le ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.