Regional Climate Messages for West Africa
... The climate across West Africa varies from arid desert conditions in the north to humid tropical monsoon conditions along the coastal regions in the south. A semi-arid transect is located in the Sahel region, extending from northern Nigeria in the east to Senegal in the west. The primary factors aff ...
... The climate across West Africa varies from arid desert conditions in the north to humid tropical monsoon conditions along the coastal regions in the south. A semi-arid transect is located in the Sahel region, extending from northern Nigeria in the east to Senegal in the west. The primary factors aff ...
Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of
... Using the pattern of perturbations of the sun’s location from the center of mass of the solar system as a measure of the oscillations of the sun-planets system due to gravitational and magnetic interactions, which can be back-calculated by orbital calculations to any desired length of time, Scafett ...
... Using the pattern of perturbations of the sun’s location from the center of mass of the solar system as a measure of the oscillations of the sun-planets system due to gravitational and magnetic interactions, which can be back-calculated by orbital calculations to any desired length of time, Scafett ...
Chapter12_January2013 - IARC Research
... ters from year to year; differences of up to about 25% have been observed based on Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in March and September, respectively (Frey et al. 2012). As the ice melts in spring, increased light and salinity-induced sta ...
... ters from year to year; differences of up to about 25% have been observed based on Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in March and September, respectively (Frey et al. 2012). As the ice melts in spring, increased light and salinity-induced sta ...
Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate
... Niche model (NPPEN). This model offers many advantages [22]: (i) it requires presence-only data, (ii) it is based on a nonparametric test and is therefore distribution-free, (iii) by the use of the generalized Mahalanobis distance, the model takes into account the correlation between environmental v ...
... Niche model (NPPEN). This model offers many advantages [22]: (i) it requires presence-only data, (ii) it is based on a nonparametric test and is therefore distribution-free, (iii) by the use of the generalized Mahalanobis distance, the model takes into account the correlation between environmental v ...
Climate Dynamics (CLIM)
... Foundation and theory of computational methods for atmosphere and ocean modeling, with special emphasis on finite-difference and spectral methods. Topics include accuracy, consistency, convergence and stability; time stepping schemes; nonlinear computational stability; energy and enstrophy conservin ...
... Foundation and theory of computational methods for atmosphere and ocean modeling, with special emphasis on finite-difference and spectral methods. Topics include accuracy, consistency, convergence and stability; time stepping schemes; nonlinear computational stability; energy and enstrophy conservin ...
Sensitivity of thermohaline circulation to decadal
... in many studies of the past, present, and future climate (Goosse and Fichefet, 1999; Renssen et al., 2002; Petoukhov et al., 2005; Timm and Timmermann, 2007). The atmospheric component is the ECBilt model (Opsteegh et al., 1998), a spectral T21 global three-level quasi-geostrophic model that uses si ...
... in many studies of the past, present, and future climate (Goosse and Fichefet, 1999; Renssen et al., 2002; Petoukhov et al., 2005; Timm and Timmermann, 2007). The atmospheric component is the ECBilt model (Opsteegh et al., 1998), a spectral T21 global three-level quasi-geostrophic model that uses si ...
Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and
... 1981–2009. The inner workings of the models, as well as the simulated phenological response to climate change/variability, were compared to determine if the models adequately handled climatic changes and climatic variability. Results showed these models simulated rice phenological development over a ...
... 1981–2009. The inner workings of the models, as well as the simulated phenological response to climate change/variability, were compared to determine if the models adequately handled climatic changes and climatic variability. Results showed these models simulated rice phenological development over a ...
Generating possibility distributions of scenarios for regional climate
... future might unfold. • The purpose is not to identify the most likely future, but to create a map of uncertainty of the forces driving us toward the unknown future. • Scenarios help decision makers order and frame their thinking about the long-term while providing them with the tools and confidence ...
... future might unfold. • The purpose is not to identify the most likely future, but to create a map of uncertainty of the forces driving us toward the unknown future. • Scenarios help decision makers order and frame their thinking about the long-term while providing them with the tools and confidence ...
Durham Research Online
... model structure, for example, about the numerical value that should be assigned to a parameter representing the entrainment of air into clouds from the surrounding environment. Initial condition uncertainty is uncertainty about which numerical values to assign to model variables at the start of the ...
... model structure, for example, about the numerical value that should be assigned to a parameter representing the entrainment of air into clouds from the surrounding environment. Initial condition uncertainty is uncertainty about which numerical values to assign to model variables at the start of the ...
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle
... distribution is asymmetrical with a 240/160% distribution around the best estimate (i.e., the average of the likely range is 10% above the best estimate). This asymmetrical ‘‘240/160%’’ distribution was based on several lines of evidence as described in detail in Knutti et al. (2008). It was argued ...
... distribution is asymmetrical with a 240/160% distribution around the best estimate (i.e., the average of the likely range is 10% above the best estimate). This asymmetrical ‘‘240/160%’’ distribution was based on several lines of evidence as described in detail in Knutti et al. (2008). It was argued ...
PDF
... Historical climatic data: Monthly temperature and precipitation data for weather stations in the feeding areas were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite and Information Service, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).5 Temperature is measured in degrees Fa ...
... Historical climatic data: Monthly temperature and precipitation data for weather stations in the feeding areas were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite and Information Service, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).5 Temperature is measured in degrees Fa ...
Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support
... mean temperature changes. This assumption requires that, for instance, the warming pattern for a 4o global warming is the same as for a 2o global warming, but twice as big. In other words pattern scaling is only viable if local temperatures scale linearly with global mean surface temperature. Since ...
... mean temperature changes. This assumption requires that, for instance, the warming pattern for a 4o global warming is the same as for a 2o global warming, but twice as big. In other words pattern scaling is only viable if local temperatures scale linearly with global mean surface temperature. Since ...
Detectability of Anthropogenic Changes in Annual Temperature and
... Meehl et al. 2000). An increase in intense precipitation is projected under greenhouse warming conditions over large parts of the globe by most models (see Cubasch et al. 2001; Meehl et al. 2000; Kharin and Zwiers 2000, 2004, manuscript submitted to J. Climate, hereafter KZ04; Semenov and Bengtsson ...
... Meehl et al. 2000). An increase in intense precipitation is projected under greenhouse warming conditions over large parts of the globe by most models (see Cubasch et al. 2001; Meehl et al. 2000; Kharin and Zwiers 2000, 2004, manuscript submitted to J. Climate, hereafter KZ04; Semenov and Bengtsson ...
Forecasting global climate change: A scientific approach Kesten C
... We found that the IPCC procedures violated all 19 of the Golden Rule guidelines that are relevant to long-term climate forecasting, including “be conservative when forecasting trends if the series is variable or unstable” and “be conservative when forecasting trends if the short and long-term trend ...
... We found that the IPCC procedures violated all 19 of the Golden Rule guidelines that are relevant to long-term climate forecasting, including “be conservative when forecasting trends if the series is variable or unstable” and “be conservative when forecasting trends if the short and long-term trend ...
A set of logical steps in order to make an assessment of
... change may be defined as a model whose outputs vary when you specify different climate conditions as inputs. Generally, impact models used in agricultural assessments give different outputs even for the same climate data as input if you specify different crops, varieties, soils and management condit ...
... change may be defined as a model whose outputs vary when you specify different climate conditions as inputs. Generally, impact models used in agricultural assessments give different outputs even for the same climate data as input if you specify different crops, varieties, soils and management condit ...
Comment by: Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. Knappenberger
... functions in these IAMs are typically calibrated by estimating damages at moderate temperature increases (e.g., DICE was calibrated at 2.5 °C) and extrapolated to far higher temperatures by assuming that damages increase as some power of the temperature change. Hence, estimated damages are far more ...
... functions in these IAMs are typically calibrated by estimating damages at moderate temperature increases (e.g., DICE was calibrated at 2.5 °C) and extrapolated to far higher temperatures by assuming that damages increase as some power of the temperature change. Hence, estimated damages are far more ...
Full Report
... enough to allow renegotiation as conditions change. ■ Large savings, on the order of trillions of dollars, are available from distributing international abatement efficiently rather than using naive allocations like holding regional emissions at current levels: these savings may be particularly larg ...
... enough to allow renegotiation as conditions change. ■ Large savings, on the order of trillions of dollars, are available from distributing international abatement efficiently rather than using naive allocations like holding regional emissions at current levels: these savings may be particularly larg ...
Global Change – The IGBP Series
... There are now volumes of papers to testify to this, but perhaps I can pick on a few highlights. The 1989 multi-national North Atlantic Bloom Experiment was put together with extraordinary speed, and it combined ships and aircraft observations in new ways. U.S., German, U.K., Canadian and Dutch ships ...
... There are now volumes of papers to testify to this, but perhaps I can pick on a few highlights. The 1989 multi-national North Atlantic Bloom Experiment was put together with extraordinary speed, and it combined ships and aircraft observations in new ways. U.S., German, U.K., Canadian and Dutch ships ...
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature
... provided using simpler model frameworks which rely on global energy balance assumptions to constrain the range of future changes. At the simplest level these relate changes in climate forcing to global mean temperature change based on assumptions about the nature of the ocean heat uptake and sensiti ...
... provided using simpler model frameworks which rely on global energy balance assumptions to constrain the range of future changes. At the simplest level these relate changes in climate forcing to global mean temperature change based on assumptions about the nature of the ocean heat uptake and sensiti ...
Earth System interactions
... assessments of a wider range of environmental impacts of climate change. Representing processes with higher resolution will also reduce important uncertainties in climate change projections. To achieve this necessary progress on both complexity and resolution, we propose a strengthened collaboration ...
... assessments of a wider range of environmental impacts of climate change. Representing processes with higher resolution will also reduce important uncertainties in climate change projections. To achieve this necessary progress on both complexity and resolution, we propose a strengthened collaboration ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.