Fernando T. Maestre , 214 (2012); DOI: 10.1126/science.1215442
... dependent variables, and seven abiotic variables [sand content, slope, elevation, and four components derived from a principal-components analysis of 21 available climatic variables (20)] plus species richness as potential independent variables. Among the 255 possible models resulting from all possi ...
... dependent variables, and seven abiotic variables [sand content, slope, elevation, and four components derived from a principal-components analysis of 21 available climatic variables (20)] plus species richness as potential independent variables. Among the 255 possible models resulting from all possi ...
Climate projections for ecologists
... how plants and animals will respond to climate change, but few attempts have been made to interpret climate models for ecologists. The ambiguity and confusion that frequently surround climate projections have hampered ecologists’ efforts to effectively analyse and communicate the potential impacts o ...
... how plants and animals will respond to climate change, but few attempts have been made to interpret climate models for ecologists. The ambiguity and confusion that frequently surround climate projections have hampered ecologists’ efforts to effectively analyse and communicate the potential impacts o ...
Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale
... timescale, more than quadruple the 0.9–3.7°C they predicted on the centennial timescale, and more than double the 1.4–5.8°C the IPCC predict for the centennial timescale. At the UK scale, warming is 1.2–10°C on the millennial timescale compared to 1–2°C on the centennial timescale or 1–5°C from UKCI ...
... timescale, more than quadruple the 0.9–3.7°C they predicted on the centennial timescale, and more than double the 1.4–5.8°C the IPCC predict for the centennial timescale. At the UK scale, warming is 1.2–10°C on the millennial timescale compared to 1–2°C on the centennial timescale or 1–5°C from UKCI ...
Impact of the Expanding Thar Desert
... of 7-month continuous simulations initialized on successive days of February (0000 UTC 1–4 February) and running until 0000 UTC 1 September: the control run (CTL) and the desertification scenario (DES). In the latter case, the area of the Thar Desert was extended by changing the vegetation type over ...
... of 7-month continuous simulations initialized on successive days of February (0000 UTC 1–4 February) and running until 0000 UTC 1 September: the control run (CTL) and the desertification scenario (DES). In the latter case, the area of the Thar Desert was extended by changing the vegetation type over ...
Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world
... inadequate and skewed towards lower elevations. We review important physical mechanisms which could potentially contribute to elevation-dependent warming (EDW) that include: a) snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks, b) water vapour changes and latent heat release, c) surface water vapour and radia ...
... inadequate and skewed towards lower elevations. We review important physical mechanisms which could potentially contribute to elevation-dependent warming (EDW) that include: a) snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks, b) water vapour changes and latent heat release, c) surface water vapour and radia ...
magnitude and frequency
... feedbacks and forcings the “total” uncertainty is likely to be under-estimated. Furthermore, it has been shown that the effective sample size of the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble is probably only five to ten independent models (Jun et al, 2008). A more diverse set of process representations, parameteri ...
... feedbacks and forcings the “total” uncertainty is likely to be under-estimated. Furthermore, it has been shown that the effective sample size of the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble is probably only five to ten independent models (Jun et al, 2008). A more diverse set of process representations, parameteri ...
Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate
... inputs; vulnerability is most directly assessed from an individual’s capacity to predict a risk factor based on its full response vector yi,t. We term this approach DIP. ‘Weak tracking’ represented by bias or large predictive variance means that an input has minor impact on an individual’s health. T ...
... inputs; vulnerability is most directly assessed from an individual’s capacity to predict a risk factor based on its full response vector yi,t. We term this approach DIP. ‘Weak tracking’ represented by bias or large predictive variance means that an input has minor impact on an individual’s health. T ...
Provide an initial estimate of the uncertainty in UK predicted climate
... The actual projections for UKIR climate change are, not surprisingly, a warming in all seasons. However, the season of peak warming remains unclear. The first 3 groups in each panel of Figure 1 suggest that the warming anomaly will be largest in summer and autumn, but this merely reflects the season ...
... The actual projections for UKIR climate change are, not surprisingly, a warming in all seasons. However, the season of peak warming remains unclear. The first 3 groups in each panel of Figure 1 suggest that the warming anomaly will be largest in summer and autumn, but this merely reflects the season ...
Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from
... have overlooked discussing glacier behavior on river basin scale [2,6], except [15]. Some studies have been carried out for the long-term prediction of streamflow based on future climate scenarios by adding the future monthly precipitation and temperature changes simulated by General Circulation Mod ...
... have overlooked discussing glacier behavior on river basin scale [2,6], except [15]. Some studies have been carried out for the long-term prediction of streamflow based on future climate scenarios by adding the future monthly precipitation and temperature changes simulated by General Circulation Mod ...
Full text in PDF - What is Climate
... Not one of the explanations meets basic academic reasoning, and if not straight false or illogical, the statements are of little help to use them for scientific work, or for communication with politics and the general public. The Ref. [9], NASA, explains that: • Weather is basically the way the atmo ...
... Not one of the explanations meets basic academic reasoning, and if not straight false or illogical, the statements are of little help to use them for scientific work, or for communication with politics and the general public. The Ref. [9], NASA, explains that: • Weather is basically the way the atmo ...
The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species
... play a relatively minor role in governing species distributions at regional to continental scales (Pearson & Dawson, 2003), where climate is expected to exert a dominant role. We investigate this idea and ask whether the inclusion of simple biotic interactions in bioclimate ‘envelope’ models (here t ...
... play a relatively minor role in governing species distributions at regional to continental scales (Pearson & Dawson, 2003), where climate is expected to exert a dominant role. We investigate this idea and ask whether the inclusion of simple biotic interactions in bioclimate ‘envelope’ models (here t ...
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future
... monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions. Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in S. America, Africa, East Asia, S. Asia, SE Asia, and Australia. Lesser model agreement results in medium confi ...
... monsoon retreat dates are likely to delay, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season in many regions. Future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in S. America, Africa, East Asia, S. Asia, SE Asia, and Australia. Lesser model agreement results in medium confi ...
Accounting for Extreme Events in the Economic Assessment of
... the economic damages due to climate change are carried out with long-term economic growth models, designed to capture the long-term features of the economy (Nordhaus (1994), Tol (1997), Peck and Teisberg (1992), Ambrosi et al. (2003) or Hallegatte (2004)). In these models, however, climate change im ...
... the economic damages due to climate change are carried out with long-term economic growth models, designed to capture the long-term features of the economy (Nordhaus (1994), Tol (1997), Peck and Teisberg (1992), Ambrosi et al. (2003) or Hallegatte (2004)). In these models, however, climate change im ...
(Un)Natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme
... Attributable Risk (Stone and Allen, 2005).This approach is widely used in health and population studies to quantify the contribution of a risk factor to the occurrence of a disease – for example, how much smoking increases the risk of lung cancer. Similarly, evaluating how much climate change alters ...
... Attributable Risk (Stone and Allen, 2005).This approach is widely used in health and population studies to quantify the contribution of a risk factor to the occurrence of a disease – for example, how much smoking increases the risk of lung cancer. Similarly, evaluating how much climate change alters ...
Baltic Sea catchment
... A contradiction prevails if the null hypothesis “k=1” is rejected. Thus, a non-contradiction is a plausibility-argument. It may be due to a too small data base. ...
... A contradiction prevails if the null hypothesis “k=1” is rejected. Thus, a non-contradiction is a plausibility-argument. It may be due to a too small data base. ...
Climate Change as a Regulator of Tectonics on Venus
... it has been suggested that the magnitude of surface temperature excursions may be less than those in Fig. 2 (27). Even for the same set of assumptions as those made here but for a volume of erupted lavas differing by a factor of 2 (or, equivalently, concentrations of SO2 and H2O in the magma differe ...
... it has been suggested that the magnitude of surface temperature excursions may be less than those in Fig. 2 (27). Even for the same set of assumptions as those made here but for a volume of erupted lavas differing by a factor of 2 (or, equivalently, concentrations of SO2 and H2O in the magma differe ...
1 Lecture Aims Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) Feedbacks
... Solar activity (sunspots etc) & irradiance (total radiation) changes with 11year solar cycle. There are long term changes in solar activity – the Maunder Minimum being one example. Converting this to changes in solar irradiance can be done though very uncertain. “Sun-like” starts which show activity ...
... Solar activity (sunspots etc) & irradiance (total radiation) changes with 11year solar cycle. There are long term changes in solar activity – the Maunder Minimum being one example. Converting this to changes in solar irradiance can be done though very uncertain. “Sun-like” starts which show activity ...
NAME - UW Atmospheric Sciences
... La Plata Basin (CIC), in co-operation with water agencies of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, and VAMOS/PLATIN Current Status: The project was presented to GEF for final approval (tentatively by July 2006) Project Total Cost: GEF has placed $15M on Reserve; Countries and Other Sour ...
... La Plata Basin (CIC), in co-operation with water agencies of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, and VAMOS/PLATIN Current Status: The project was presented to GEF for final approval (tentatively by July 2006) Project Total Cost: GEF has placed $15M on Reserve; Countries and Other Sour ...
An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin
... and more efficient technology, among others, but can be generally characterized by maximum atmospheric CO2 concentrations (IPCC, 2007). For example, scenario SRES B1 is characterized by rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and information economy, with the introduction of clean and ...
... and more efficient technology, among others, but can be generally characterized by maximum atmospheric CO2 concentrations (IPCC, 2007). For example, scenario SRES B1 is characterized by rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and information economy, with the introduction of clean and ...
Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical
... extremes of the predictand (Katz et al., 2002). Most SD work has focussed on single-site (i.e., point scale) daily precipitation as the predictand because it is the most important input variable for many natural systems models and cannot be obtained directly from climate model output. Predictor sets ...
... extremes of the predictand (Katz et al., 2002). Most SD work has focussed on single-site (i.e., point scale) daily precipitation as the predictand because it is the most important input variable for many natural systems models and cannot be obtained directly from climate model output. Predictor sets ...
Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?†
... economists interested in climate change policy have done. One of the first such models was developed by William Nordhaus over twenty years ago.2 That model was an early attempt to integrate the climate science and economic aspects of the impact of GHG emissions, and it helped economists understand t ...
... economists interested in climate change policy have done. One of the first such models was developed by William Nordhaus over twenty years ago.2 That model was an early attempt to integrate the climate science and economic aspects of the impact of GHG emissions, and it helped economists understand t ...
Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change
... [Polvani and Kushner, 2002; Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The IPCC/AR4 models show this as well, as can be seen in Figure 1c [see also Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The westerly jet, whose location is identified by the location of the maximum zonal wind at 850 hPa, shifts poleward even in the absence of ...
... [Polvani and Kushner, 2002; Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The IPCC/AR4 models show this as well, as can be seen in Figure 1c [see also Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007]. The westerly jet, whose location is identified by the location of the maximum zonal wind at 850 hPa, shifts poleward even in the absence of ...
Regional Climate Messages for West Africa
... The climate across West Africa varies from arid desert conditions in the north to humid tropical monsoon conditions along the coastal regions in the south. A semi-arid transect is located in the Sahel region, extending from northern Nigeria in the east to Senegal in the west. The primary factors aff ...
... The climate across West Africa varies from arid desert conditions in the north to humid tropical monsoon conditions along the coastal regions in the south. A semi-arid transect is located in the Sahel region, extending from northern Nigeria in the east to Senegal in the west. The primary factors aff ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.