FAME
... • IPSL CMIP4 Climate Change Model (future) – Simulations for SKJ, BET, ALB – Extraction of EEZ level information – Published on SPC website ...
... • IPSL CMIP4 Climate Change Model (future) – Simulations for SKJ, BET, ALB – Extraction of EEZ level information – Published on SPC website ...
Future climate in world regions - the IPCC Data Distribution Centre
... based on the new IPCC emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000 – see Box on the next page), which assume no explicit climate policies. Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100, which is a much more rapid rate of warming than during the 20th ...
... based on the new IPCC emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000 – see Box on the next page), which assume no explicit climate policies. Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100, which is a much more rapid rate of warming than during the 20th ...
- Wiley Online Library
... [Hawkins and Sutton, 2009]. All estimates are made relative to the reference period 1986–2005 - we choose the recent past as being of greatest relevance for adaptation. We test this method using an ensemble of 10 simulations with a single model, producing an ensemble standard deviation in ToE for ea ...
... [Hawkins and Sutton, 2009]. All estimates are made relative to the reference period 1986–2005 - we choose the recent past as being of greatest relevance for adaptation. We test this method using an ensemble of 10 simulations with a single model, producing an ensemble standard deviation in ToE for ea ...
The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2
... average temperature, from the geologic past following Alley et al. (2005) and forecast for the future. Looking into the past, during glacial time 18,000 years ago, sea level was 120 m lower than today, and the Earth was 5–6°C colder. Further back in time, during the last interglacial (Eemian) time, ...
... average temperature, from the geologic past following Alley et al. (2005) and forecast for the future. Looking into the past, during glacial time 18,000 years ago, sea level was 120 m lower than today, and the Earth was 5–6°C colder. Further back in time, during the last interglacial (Eemian) time, ...
How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming
... considering that they are from independent data sets. On the other hand, the model results are about a factor of 8 lower than GPCP values, substantially above the uncertainty of the GPCP data. [13] To ascertain that the large difference between the model-simulated values derived by Sun et al. [2007] ...
... considering that they are from independent data sets. On the other hand, the model results are about a factor of 8 lower than GPCP values, substantially above the uncertainty of the GPCP data. [13] To ascertain that the large difference between the model-simulated values derived by Sun et al. [2007] ...
Document
... tens to hundreds of years for ozone to return to its original level. Identification of changes in global ozone which may have already taken place is crucial. The search for a global ozone trend involves looking for small secular changes amidst large natural variations that may occur on many time sca ...
... tens to hundreds of years for ozone to return to its original level. Identification of changes in global ozone which may have already taken place is crucial. The search for a global ozone trend involves looking for small secular changes amidst large natural variations that may occur on many time sca ...
Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity
... models. Two such models have produced published results representing the dynamical response of the Earth’s climate and carbon system to CO 2 emissions (Cox et al., 2000; Friedlingstein et al., 2001). The study by Cox et al. (2000) showed a very large positive feedback and the other study showed a mu ...
... models. Two such models have produced published results representing the dynamical response of the Earth’s climate and carbon system to CO 2 emissions (Cox et al., 2000; Friedlingstein et al., 2001). The study by Cox et al. (2000) showed a very large positive feedback and the other study showed a mu ...
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... dense deep Mediterranean waters through air–sea coupling (see Chapters 4 and 5 for more descriptions). This water transformation process generates thermohaline forcing which drives, in a large proportion, the Mediterranean marine general circulation. Convection can thus be observed in several places ...
... dense deep Mediterranean waters through air–sea coupling (see Chapters 4 and 5 for more descriptions). This water transformation process generates thermohaline forcing which drives, in a large proportion, the Mediterranean marine general circulation. Convection can thus be observed in several places ...
- Wiley Online Library
... 3.1. Marine fog in the model and observations First, to examine the representation of marine fog in the model, the simulation data are compared with the shipboard and satellite observations (see Kawai et al. (2015) for details). Regarding the satellite cloud mask data, fog is defined as cloud at hei ...
... 3.1. Marine fog in the model and observations First, to examine the representation of marine fog in the model, the simulation data are compared with the shipboard and satellite observations (see Kawai et al. (2015) for details). Regarding the satellite cloud mask data, fog is defined as cloud at hei ...
The Role of Regional SST Warming Variations in the - NCAR-RAL
... models show a Gill-type response to the warming minimum, with low-level anticyclonic circulations and upperlevel cyclonic circulation to the northwest of the area of reduced warming (Rauscher et al. 2008). In contrast to the TNA, the tropical eastern Pacific warms more than the zonal mean. Such a wa ...
... models show a Gill-type response to the warming minimum, with low-level anticyclonic circulations and upperlevel cyclonic circulation to the northwest of the area of reduced warming (Rauscher et al. 2008). In contrast to the TNA, the tropical eastern Pacific warms more than the zonal mean. Such a wa ...
Sposito et al. 2012. Austr Decision
... This is not dissimilar to the situation faced in daily life by organisations that make decisions without reasonable predictions of the future to support them. Several authors have proposed that society should seek to identify strategies that are ‘robust’ against a broad range of plausible futures (e ...
... This is not dissimilar to the situation faced in daily life by organisations that make decisions without reasonable predictions of the future to support them. Several authors have proposed that society should seek to identify strategies that are ‘robust’ against a broad range of plausible futures (e ...
Integration of Ocean Observations into an Ecosystem Approach to
... research-management links. While an IEA may focus on a single location, it will consider large-scale issues such as climate change and connectivity between adjacent ecosystems and key management areas within an ecosystem. Therefore, a functional IEA for a particular marine ecosystem can be scaled do ...
... research-management links. While an IEA may focus on a single location, it will consider large-scale issues such as climate change and connectivity between adjacent ecosystems and key management areas within an ecosystem. Therefore, a functional IEA for a particular marine ecosystem can be scaled do ...
Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a
... projected by an economics module of the IGSM [Prinn et al., 2011]. This scenario is constructed under the assumption that no climate policies are imposed over the 21st century and is similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ...
... projected by an economics module of the IGSM [Prinn et al., 2011]. This scenario is constructed under the assumption that no climate policies are imposed over the 21st century and is similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ...
Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its
... model: Agustin, Brushy Mountain, Datil, Laguna, and Socorro (Fig. 3). Each gauge provides hourly measurements with record lengths varying from 4 to 30 years (Table 2). The records were used to identify consecutive rainfall periods, estimate their average intensity over the event duration and determi ...
... model: Agustin, Brushy Mountain, Datil, Laguna, and Socorro (Fig. 3). Each gauge provides hourly measurements with record lengths varying from 4 to 30 years (Table 2). The records were used to identify consecutive rainfall periods, estimate their average intensity over the event duration and determi ...
UKCP09: Probabilistic projections of wind speed
... of the change is negative in some ensemble members, and uncertainties are augmented considerably by the influence of natural climate variability, which is larger than the spread of forced changes. The corresponding ensemble of 12 alternative climate models shows a similar large-scale pattern of chan ...
... of the change is negative in some ensemble members, and uncertainties are augmented considerably by the influence of natural climate variability, which is larger than the spread of forced changes. The corresponding ensemble of 12 alternative climate models shows a similar large-scale pattern of chan ...
evaluating the impacts of climate change on catchment
... limited rather than supply limited (Outram et al. 2014). Evans (2014) has also carried out a less detailed reconnaissance survey to identify sources of diffuse pollution. Features such as eroded fields and tracks were recorded in parts of the Wensum catchment to identify hig risk areas. However desp ...
... limited rather than supply limited (Outram et al. 2014). Evans (2014) has also carried out a less detailed reconnaissance survey to identify sources of diffuse pollution. Features such as eroded fields and tracks were recorded in parts of the Wensum catchment to identify hig risk areas. However desp ...
Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future
... processes that operate today also operated in the distant past is a key principle of modern geology. The methodological significance of the principle is summarized in the statement the present is the key to the past. Uniformitarianism originated with the work of the geologist James Hutton, but was re ...
... processes that operate today also operated in the distant past is a key principle of modern geology. The methodological significance of the principle is summarized in the statement the present is the key to the past. Uniformitarianism originated with the work of the geologist James Hutton, but was re ...
Simulated and Observed Preindustrial to Modern
... Section 2 describes the model, datasets, and simulations performed in this study. In section 3, the simulated vegetation is assessed against satellite-based observations with regard to biome distribution, mean vegetation cover, and seasonal cycle. Simulated and observed changes in climate are descri ...
... Section 2 describes the model, datasets, and simulations performed in this study. In section 3, the simulated vegetation is assessed against satellite-based observations with regard to biome distribution, mean vegetation cover, and seasonal cycle. Simulated and observed changes in climate are descri ...
Non normal Perturbation Growth of Pure Thermohaline Circulation
... The solution procedure is as follows. The temperature and salinity fields are calculated using forward timedifferencing and numerical diffusion associated with the advective terms is reduced using the method described in Wright and Stocker (1991). The density field is determined by the linear eq ...
... The solution procedure is as follows. The temperature and salinity fields are calculated using forward timedifferencing and numerical diffusion associated with the advective terms is reduced using the method described in Wright and Stocker (1991). The density field is determined by the linear eq ...
Severe weather and UK food chain resilience
... strengthen more quickly in the future than projected and that they may have more severe impacts than estimated.” In addition, for some climate phenomena (such as the way that large scale circulation patterns like the southern oscillation may change), inter-model comparison shows considerable variabi ...
... strengthen more quickly in the future than projected and that they may have more severe impacts than estimated.” In addition, for some climate phenomena (such as the way that large scale circulation patterns like the southern oscillation may change), inter-model comparison shows considerable variabi ...
Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions
... Abstract. Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation ...
... Abstract. Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.