Reports of Phase 2 Activity, January 2005
... different greenhouse scenarios. The Stage 2 IOCI projections used up to nine international models. Two emission scenarios were downscaled to the regional and rain gauge scale. Results for 2030, directly from the models or downscaled, indicate that: ...
... different greenhouse scenarios. The Stage 2 IOCI projections used up to nine international models. Two emission scenarios were downscaled to the regional and rain gauge scale. Results for 2030, directly from the models or downscaled, indicate that: ...
Accurate estimates of yield gaps - Van Bussel et al 2015
... (e.g. Portmann et al., 2010) do not capture the large complexity and spatial variability of observed cropping patterns. Thus, although these global studies may give valuable insight about spatial trends of estimated Yp and Yw and resulting Yg across the globe, results for specific locations obtained ...
... (e.g. Portmann et al., 2010) do not capture the large complexity and spatial variability of observed cropping patterns. Thus, although these global studies may give valuable insight about spatial trends of estimated Yp and Yw and resulting Yg across the globe, results for specific locations obtained ...
Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone
... The model-model differences are largest when the climate change scenario is considered. In addition, some recent regional and global model studies indicate substantial regional impacts of climate change on concentrations of surface ozone (Langner et al., 2005; Murazaki and Hess, 2006). It is likely ...
... The model-model differences are largest when the climate change scenario is considered. In addition, some recent regional and global model studies indicate substantial regional impacts of climate change on concentrations of surface ozone (Langner et al., 2005; Murazaki and Hess, 2006). It is likely ...
Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear
... bird nests (e.g. Iles et al., 2013). Polar bear agents could detect nearby eider nests through olfaction, and used visual cues to guide their movement (i.e. they would swim towards islands when searching for nests). Polar bear agents also remembered the location of eider colonies from previous years ...
... bird nests (e.g. Iles et al., 2013). Polar bear agents could detect nearby eider nests through olfaction, and used visual cues to guide their movement (i.e. they would swim towards islands when searching for nests). Polar bear agents also remembered the location of eider colonies from previous years ...
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population
... only one or a few realizations of which are available, we developed a new method to estimate ...
... only one or a few realizations of which are available, we developed a new method to estimate ...
Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat
... al. (2012), Purkey and Johnson (2010), and ORAS4 ensembles, and presenting the 5–95 % confidence interval. We compare our observation-based OHC ensemble with 24 CMIP5 model simulations (Table 1) of historical OHC changes. Climate models suffer from so-called “drift” (Sen Gupta et al., 2013; Hobbs et ...
... al. (2012), Purkey and Johnson (2010), and ORAS4 ensembles, and presenting the 5–95 % confidence interval. We compare our observation-based OHC ensemble with 24 CMIP5 model simulations (Table 1) of historical OHC changes. Climate models suffer from so-called “drift” (Sen Gupta et al., 2013; Hobbs et ...
concluded
... interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to 0.15] ...
... interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to 0.15] ...
Centre of Excellence Programme 2014-2019
... remote sensing) will provide spatially continuous, frequent observational data sets that can be applied to the evaluation and further development of large-scale models, to analyses of trends in essential ecosystem and climate variables, and to analyses of spatially-distributed processes. A major new ...
... remote sensing) will provide spatially continuous, frequent observational data sets that can be applied to the evaluation and further development of large-scale models, to analyses of trends in essential ecosystem and climate variables, and to analyses of spatially-distributed processes. A major new ...
Climate change in Central America and Mexico
... be driven by factors affected by climate (Pounds et al. 2006; Whitfield et al. 2007). Pounds et al. (1999) demonstrated that the dry-season mist frequency, an important factor responsible for supplying moisture to ecosystems in Costa Rica, is negatively correlated to SSTs in the equatorial Pacific a ...
... be driven by factors affected by climate (Pounds et al. 2006; Whitfield et al. 2007). Pounds et al. (1999) demonstrated that the dry-season mist frequency, an important factor responsible for supplying moisture to ecosystems in Costa Rica, is negatively correlated to SSTs in the equatorial Pacific a ...
Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to
... climate state and not differences in the phase of climate variability, (ii) the mean climate state and the projected change are not strongly correlated, and (iii) changes in ocean temperature from the broad-scale changes in radiative forcing and ocean dynamics resolved by AOGCMs are not strongly cou ...
... climate state and not differences in the phase of climate variability, (ii) the mean climate state and the projected change are not strongly correlated, and (iii) changes in ocean temperature from the broad-scale changes in radiative forcing and ocean dynamics resolved by AOGCMs are not strongly cou ...
Trends in the land and ocean carbon uptake
... AF increased by 0.1% per year, close to the trend estimated from observations. The land and ocean models both contributed to the reversal of the trend in about equal proportions. Climate variability could play an important role in setting the trends of the past few decades. For instance, the 1970s w ...
... AF increased by 0.1% per year, close to the trend estimated from observations. The land and ocean models both contributed to the reversal of the trend in about equal proportions. Climate variability could play an important role in setting the trends of the past few decades. For instance, the 1970s w ...
Impacts of climate change on the worldTs most exceptional ecoregions
... rarity, and their representation of biomes (16). However, the majority of these regions are threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation, with 147 of 185 terrestrial and freshwater regions being classified as either vulnerable or critically endangered (CE) (16). Exposure of these ecoreg ...
... rarity, and their representation of biomes (16). However, the majority of these regions are threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation, with 147 of 185 terrestrial and freshwater regions being classified as either vulnerable or critically endangered (CE) (16). Exposure of these ecoreg ...
Climate Change Scenario Simulations over Area Climate Model:
... from both observations and model simulations, and the simulation of scenarios for possible future climate change were regarded as important. To investigate this, the PRECIS RCM was first nested over the Eritrean domain into the “atmosphere only” HadAM3H global General Circulation Model (GCM) and for ...
... from both observations and model simulations, and the simulation of scenarios for possible future climate change were regarded as important. To investigate this, the PRECIS RCM was first nested over the Eritrean domain into the “atmosphere only” HadAM3H global General Circulation Model (GCM) and for ...
Climate Change Impacts On Rainfed Corn Production In
... insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. Global warming is expected to cause climate change in Malawi, including changes in temperature and precipitation amounts and patterns. These climate changes are expected to affect corn production in Malawi. This s ...
... insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. Global warming is expected to cause climate change in Malawi, including changes in temperature and precipitation amounts and patterns. These climate changes are expected to affect corn production in Malawi. This s ...
The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cash Crop Farms in
... stochastic state due to a lack of resources or planning, they will suffer not only the negative effects on their production and marketing, but also the opportunity costs from potential benefits. Agriculture has changed over the past decades, but Québec and Ontario still rely on this sector. Rural co ...
... stochastic state due to a lack of resources or planning, they will suffer not only the negative effects on their production and marketing, but also the opportunity costs from potential benefits. Agriculture has changed over the past decades, but Québec and Ontario still rely on this sector. Rural co ...
Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and
... Afghanistan is frequently ranked among the countries most vulnerable to climate change (e.g., [1–3]) due to a combination of low adaptive capacity and high exposure to climate fluctuations. Over the past four decades, armed conflict has destroyed the country’s infrastructure, damaged its institution ...
... Afghanistan is frequently ranked among the countries most vulnerable to climate change (e.g., [1–3]) due to a combination of low adaptive capacity and high exposure to climate fluctuations. Over the past four decades, armed conflict has destroyed the country’s infrastructure, damaged its institution ...
Analyses of the spring phenology of boreal trees and its - E
... frost damage to harm to the native plants, although some researchers suggest that this time is still too short for the plants to have adapted to the current conditions (Lechowich 1984). The state of adaptation may vary for different species, since some broad-leaved species like Alnus and Populus ten ...
... frost damage to harm to the native plants, although some researchers suggest that this time is still too short for the plants to have adapted to the current conditions (Lechowich 1984). The state of adaptation may vary for different species, since some broad-leaved species like Alnus and Populus ten ...
Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short
... mainly in the hemisphere where the forcing takes place; Joshi et al., 2003; Shindell et al., 2010) than the forcing itself. One example of the issue of inhomogeneity of response concerns the effects of absorption of solar radiation by BC in the Arctic atmosphere. Flanner (2013) has shown that in the ...
... mainly in the hemisphere where the forcing takes place; Joshi et al., 2003; Shindell et al., 2010) than the forcing itself. One example of the issue of inhomogeneity of response concerns the effects of absorption of solar radiation by BC in the Arctic atmosphere. Flanner (2013) has shown that in the ...
Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models
... 1996; Raper et al., 2001; Cubasch et al., 2001; Osborn et al., 2006) have shown, for example, that the upwelling-diffusion model MAGICC, the primary simple climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports, can closely match key large-scale AOGCM results over a wide range of scenarios. II. Parametr ...
... 1996; Raper et al., 2001; Cubasch et al., 2001; Osborn et al., 2006) have shown, for example, that the upwelling-diffusion model MAGICC, the primary simple climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports, can closely match key large-scale AOGCM results over a wide range of scenarios. II. Parametr ...
SUB-COMPONENT STUDY: PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
... The parishes are marked by diverse, hilly, forested terrain in which vegetation is being cleared for agriculture; geography and land use change create different microclimates in and around the communities. The large-scale, approximate climates of the four study parishes are represented by a single ...
... The parishes are marked by diverse, hilly, forested terrain in which vegetation is being cleared for agriculture; geography and land use change create different microclimates in and around the communities. The large-scale, approximate climates of the four study parishes are represented by a single ...
Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood
... (Fig. 1a–d). On Saturday, 13 August the greatest total magnitude of precipitation and the broadest surface area of intense precipitation during the storm were experienced. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based gridded analysis ...
... (Fig. 1a–d). On Saturday, 13 August the greatest total magnitude of precipitation and the broadest surface area of intense precipitation during the storm were experienced. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based gridded analysis ...
PDF
... Kelley, 2004; Happe et al., 2006) and financial market (Gallegati et al., 2003). Recently, researchers started to use it to simulate climate induced migration. Hassani-Mahmooei and Parris (2012) used an ABM to analyze the effects of climate change on internal migration in Bangladesh. They estimated ...
... Kelley, 2004; Happe et al., 2006) and financial market (Gallegati et al., 2003). Recently, researchers started to use it to simulate climate induced migration. Hassani-Mahmooei and Parris (2012) used an ABM to analyze the effects of climate change on internal migration in Bangladesh. They estimated ...
2008 The Authors Tellus (2008), 60B, 300–317 Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Munksgaard
... greenhouse gases and aerosols, along with natural changes associated with solar radiation. Emphasis was placed on the complexity of the combined direct and indirect forcing from both aerosols and gases, as well as on the importance of improving our understanding of the role that each of these three ...
... greenhouse gases and aerosols, along with natural changes associated with solar radiation. Emphasis was placed on the complexity of the combined direct and indirect forcing from both aerosols and gases, as well as on the importance of improving our understanding of the role that each of these three ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.