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Strategic Research Associates
To:
Zhang Ping, Chairman, National Development and Reform Commission, The People's
Republic of China
From:
Strategic Research Associates – Partners Kartikh Khambhampati, Tom Moran, Nicholas
Patriciu and Ross Rustici
CC:
Dr. Matt Bonham
Date:
6/26/2017
Subject:
Policy Proposals in Preparation for the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit
In December 2009, countries will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark to propose a successor to the
Kyoto Protocol. Given the pressing nature of the problem of global warming, China should go to the
summit ready to clearly articulate a key set of policy proposals in order to ensure that the interests of
the country are best represented. Having been asked to form a set of policy proposals, the Strategic
Research Associates (SRA) consultancy group took the approach of investigating the concerns and
policies of other regions in the climate change talks. SRA recommends that China enters the
conference as a responsible power able to represent the interests of the largest group of countries
possible. In that regard, there are several policy proposals that find support in the regions of Africa,
Asia, Latin America and the industrialized countries that China can advocate for as an alternative to
mandatory emissions reduction. This paper will review China's key requirements for an acceptable
climate change initiative followed by a regional assessment of the positions of other countries that
includes specific proposals. After examining each region, five common theme policies are found that
must be emphasized and highlighted in negotiations to gain support. China should enter the
conference advocating for a cap and trade system that encourages technology transfers to the
developing nations whose support it is seeking to gather. Additionally, China must emphasize its
continued positive role in the economic development of many countries that is vital to poverty
reduction. China should portray itself as a leader among developing nations on the issue of climate
change while stressing the point that this problem was created by developed nations who should bear
significant responsibility in finding proper solutions.
The Chinese government has clearly outlined the acceptable policy options for any efforts to
combat climate change. The country cannot agree to initiatives that will harm economic growth, as it
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is essential to poverty reduction. China has grown at a very rapid rate over the past thirty years, but
overall economic development is far behind that of developed countries. These countries, who have
encouraged similar models of development, are demanding emissions reductions that could threaten
the advances the developing world has made. It is the Chinese government's stated goal that the
developed world transfers 0.7% of GDP to help developing nations adapt to climate change. In its
own efforts to combat the problem, China has pledged to improve energy efficiency by 20 percent by
2010 and has the second largest Combined Heat and Power capacity. Additionally, China has
instituted policies that phase out inefficient industries and encourages research by universities and
non-governmental organizations. While it is economically infeasible for China to enter into an
agreement that mandates set emissions reductions, the country is engaged in other serious efforts to
combat the problem of global warming that can serve as a model for other developing countries at the
Copenhagen Summit.
South East Asia
While each state in the region has unique concerns when it comes to climate change, they all
have unifying policy goals and a similar philosophy for global action. Given that this region is one of
the most vulnerable to climate change, specifically rising sea levels and a change in global weather
patterns, it wants action. They collectively argue that the developed world is largely responsible for
the current looming crisis and because of this the developed states should be the first to curb their
emissions. In addition to this accusatory stance, the region by and large supports the idea of a carbon
cap and trading system.
These states understand that it is unrealistic for the developed states to harm their own
economies by significantly curbing their emissions. As a result, this region supports the idea of having
the developed world transfer their cleaner technology to the developing world, so the stage of
development that causes the most pollution can be by-passed. To this effect, they would like to push
harder for a stricter cap and trading policy for developed economies, which would elicit greater
technology transfers. In addition to the unity for a strict cap policy, the region agrees upon a strong
non-interference policy. The risks of global climate change are unique to every state and countries of
the region believe that only their populations and governments can effectively deal with the
challenges. They all welcome advanced technology, scientific expertise and aid but maintain that it
must be their nationals that actually present to the populations and the government. They feel that the
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only truly effective solutions will come from within the culture and as such can only be developed by
domestic organizations.
Perhaps most important in regards to climate change, the region will not accept any imitations
on their policy options. As developing states with large portions of their population near or below the
poverty line, they cannot afford to hinder their own growth, especially given how slow the developed
world has been to address this problem. Despite being the most affected by the pending changes, these
nations refuse to comply with policies that will force emissions reductions and hurt their economies.
Indonesia is a prime example, as the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases due to logging; they
have failed to enforce anti-logging laws that were passed as a result of international and regional
pressure. On the whole, this region will not accept any agreement that has binding clauses about
curbing their emissions.
The overall desire to curb climate change, increase technological knowledge and maintain
sovereignty all line up well with China’s traditional stance on the issue. None of the major regional
concerns differ in any significant way from China’s stated policy and because of this we can
confidently recommend an attempt to co-opt the region before the Copenhagen summit.
Climate change and Africa: Opportunities for the People’s Republic of China
Global climate change presents similar challenges for China and Africa, both of which face
the prospect of severe drought, flooding, and coastal degradation that in turn threaten food and water
supplies and the lives of millions. However, there also exist a great number of opportunities for China
to build an alliance with Africa to achieve common interests and goals on climate change. As a
developing continent, Africa shares its top priority with China: stimulating economic growth in an
environmentally-sustainable fashion. An alliance with African nations based on common interests will
increase the chances that developed nations will listen and take action on long-standing Chinese
demands in the upcoming Copenhagen summit. To realize such an alliance, SRA recommends the
following actions be taken by the Chinese government: (1) Identify and emphasize China’s role in
Africa as one of economic hope for the continent; and (2) Take concrete action to increase
collaboration with Africa on areas relevant to climate change.
Economic development is of the greatest importance to African nations. Such development
will not only address issues of poverty throughout the continent, but also improve the ability of
African countries to effectively cope with climate change. China’s deepening economic ties with the
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continent have raised the hopes of Africans that such development is underway. Chinese policy in
Africa has also refocused Western attention back to the continent, further raising the prospect of
increased investment flow to the continent. China’s astounding economic growth over the past 30
years can and do serve as a model and inspiration for Africa as well. That China is associated with
renewed hope on the African continent is a fact that China should not ignore, and instead should use to
approach Africa as an alliance partner on climate change.
Beyond this, China also needs to increase collaboration with Africa on specific initiatives to
address the problem of climate change. There exist many specific places for increased collaboration
between China and Africa. For instance, on the issue of technology transfer, China should support
African calls for the establishment of a Technology Development and Transfer Board and a
Multilateral Technology Acquisition Fund as concrete steps to facilitate such transfer to developing
nations. China should also support efforts in Africa to coordinate the continent’s response to climate
change by supporting institutions such as the recently created African Climate Policy Centre. China
also has much knowledge and experience in sustainable development that it should share with Africa.
For example, China’s extensive experience with Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) should be
shared with African nations to aid them in attracting more CDMs to their countries. Another example
is China’s experience at reforestation. Such efforts will give substance to an Africa-China alliance on
climate change, and assure African nations of China’s serious and good intentions to cooperate on this
issue.
Climate Change and Latin America: Opportunity for the People’s Republic of China
The problems presented by climate change to China are similar to that of Latin America as
both face similar threats to agriculture, natural ecosystems, and water resources. However, there
exists a great opportunity for China in collaboration with Latin American countries to achieve
common interests and goals on climate change. Latin American countries, like China, are developing
rapidly and require high levels of resources to sustain this growth. China and Latin American
countries, mainly Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, and Argentina, already share a strong partnership that is
predicated on trade and investment. Hence, the People’s Republic of China shares a common interest
with Latin America in developing technologies that are environmentally friendly and will ensure the
sustainability of resources for future consumption. A collaborative stance at the Copenhagen Summit
will ensure that the developed nations will listen to Chinese demands. To achieve this alliance, SRA
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recommends the following actions be taken by the Chinese government: (1) Emphasize China’s role
in trade and investment with Latin America and (2) Increase commitment towards Clean
Development Mechanisms (CDM) in Latin American industrial sectors that directly relate to Chinese
consumption.
China and Latin America over the past decade have deepened cooperation. Under its
“Peaceful Rise” policy, China has committed to $50 billion dollars worth of trade and investments in
Latin America. China has invested heavily in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Venezuela in areas of oil
exploration, copper mining, construction, ports and railways. This increased cooperation between
China and Latin America will allow both sides to strive toward reaching their economic and political
potential in the 21st century. China has claimed that it will forever stay on the side of developing
countries and recent Chinese actions do not negate this sentiment. China should ask its Latin
American partners to reciprocate this sentiment by forming an alliance at the Copenhagen Summit
which emphasizes the need for developed countries to transfer technology to developing nations.
The increased level of cooperation in trade between China and Latin America can also transfer
to the arena of climate change. The summit provides an opportunistic platform for China to pursue a
diplomatic endeavor as a responsible power. China should invest in sectors that are directly related to
its consumption and promote Combined Heat and Power (CHP) technology usage among Latin
America’s industrial sectors as a means of achieving energy efficiency. As a leader in this technology,
China can help encourage CHP technology development in both the Brazilian steel sector and the
Venezuelan oil industry, which are key sources of the raw materials China demands. There are
numerous ways in which climate change can be tackled in a way that promotes also Chinese interests
in Latin America. By focusing on one aspect such as CHP technology, in which it is leading other
developing nations, China can showcase its commitment to combat climate change at the summit.
Industrialized Countries
Along with looking at potential allies in developing countries, the views of the Group of 8
industrialized nations must also be examined to fully anticipate responses to China's position at the
Copenhagen Climate Summit. The G8 has moved progressively closer to endorsing reductions in
greenhouse gas emission since the Kyoto Summit in 1997. Many European countries, including those
outside of the G8, have agreed to reduce emissions without waiting for China and other developing
nations to comply with similar regulations. The US continues to provide a major sticking point to
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these mandatory reductions, but may be leaning toward a cap and trade program. Given their
governments’ focus on climate change, these developed nations have contributed the substantial share
of carbon dioxide emissions, and this point must be emphasized in negotiations.
Each country within the G8 has varying interests in the formation of a new climate change
protocol. Russia originally signed the Kyoto Accord because the benchmark year for reductions was
1990. The reduced economic output after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 allows the country to
gain substantial sums of money from auctioning its carbon credits. China could work with Russia in
the promotion of a cap and trade system that would help to benefit the transfer of green technology.
The EU countries have agreed to follow emissions caps and they view their leadership on climate
change as a moral issue. However, recent troubles in the financial markets, as well as most of the G8
countries entering recession, will reduce calls for mandatory caps that might hurt their own
economies. Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister of Italy, has called for EU nations to scale back EU
emissions reduction goals that were far more ambitious than called for in the Kyoto Protocol. The
United States will encounter similar problems as an increasingly grim financial situation hampers the
ability of the new Obama administration to take a lead on mandatory greenhouse gas reductions.
Looking forward to the Copenhagen Summit, China should follow a three part policy in
addressing industrialized nations. The representatives at the meetings should emphasize the inability
of China to mandate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions with a preference toward a cap and trade
system as a viable alternative, push for the requirement of technology transfers from developed to
developing countries as well as offer pledges of investment in green sources of energy. Maintaining
the reluctance to forced emissions reductions will result in some industrialized countries not ratifying
the treaty due to political realities that would require the developing world to agree to similar
restrictions. Additionally, promoting a cap and trade system, if passed by the summit, would allow
China to take advantage of subsequent technological advances. Finally, a pledge to invest in green
energy and additional new technology will allow China to generate good will that would help the
country escape any mandatory emissions reductions.
Conclusion
After examining the four geographic regions, SRA has found key policy areas in which China
should promote its leadership in order to enter the Copenhagen Summit in the strongest possible
position. A cap and trade policy can find support among the nations of every region and would allow
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China and other developing states to avoid mandatory reductions. This approach enables China to
fight global warming without compromising the essential goal of not harming economic development,
which is important at home and abroad to continue alleviating poverty. Additionally, a cap and trade
system would promote technology transfers that are necessary in helping developing nations address
climate change. China can promote itself as a leader among developing nations on global warming by
encouraging and investing in the policies that find common support in each region. China will have
the ability to make key demands if it enters the conference with the backing of the most nations
possible, while stressing that the problem of global warming was mostly created by industrialized
countries. Emphasizing the policies laid out will help China lead an international alliance that ensures
the country does not find itself on the losing end of a new climate change protocol.
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