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GMT 10 – Increasing environmental pollution load
GMT Description
Summary
An increasingly complex mix of pollutants threatens the Earth's regulatory mechanisms.
Particulates, nitrogen and ground-level ozone merit particular attention because of their complex
and potentially far-reaching effects on ecosystem functioning, climate regulation and human health.
In addition, many other chemical substances are released into the environment, with effects — in
isolation or combined — that are still poorly understood.
Other uncertainties include how economic growth and consumption patterns may alter our use of
resources and related emission of pollutants. Policy and regulation has significant potential to
reduce the scale and nature of the pollutant load but changes in these areas remain uncertain.
There is also the uncertainty that relates to how technological developments may change the make
up of global and regional pollutants, and how pollutants could be managed.
Trend description
Pollution releases around the world are affecting human well-being, interacting with climate change
and harming ecosystems and contributing to biodiversity decline, especially in heavily affected
areas. This is not a new trend: over recent centuries humanity's impact on the environment has
risen steadily alongside population growth. Initially, effects on air and (drinking) water quality were
primarily felt locally. However the last few decades have witnessed more and more regional impacts
(such as acid rain) and many problems already have a global impact (for example climate change and
stratospheric ozone loss). Although there may be both increases and decreases in different global
regions over the next decades, pollution issues are expected to remain significant and be important
for Europe’s environment.
Part of the reason for this expected trend is that the mix of pollutants and their effects (in isolation
or combined) has grown more and more complex, with environmental feed-backs becoming
apparent at ever wider scales. The term 'anthropocene' has been suggested to describe the current
era — a period in which human resource use has become a dominant driving force, shaping the
Earth and its regulating mechanisms (Crutzen, 2002).
Pollutant emissions around the globe are related to a large number of production and consumption
patterns, including fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes and agricultural production as well as
land use changes related to these. We are burdening the environment with a rapidly expanding and
increasingly complex pollutant load, with potential effects on public health and the environment
that are poorly understood. An estimated 70 000 to 100 000 chemical substances are commercially
available and this number is rapidly expanding. Almost 5 000 of these substances are produced in
volumes exceeding one million tonnes a year. OECD countries are the biggest producers of
chemicals, but output is increasing more than twice as fast in India, China, Brazil, South Africa and
Indonesia. The economic share of these countries in total world chemical production is projected to
rise to around 30 % by 2020 and almost 40 % by 2030 (OECD, 2008) (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Production of chemicals
The biggest impact of pollutants on Europe will be related to those pollutants actually emitted in
Europe, therefore directly affecting human health and ecosystems. Air pollutants emitted in other
regions will directly affect the European environment, for instance imports of regional air pollution
from neighbouring regions (e.g. particulate matter (PM) from North Africa or parts of Asia close to
Europe) and of hemispheric air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone. Overall, these imports will
be relatively small compared to European emissions (Royal Society, 2008).
With the increasingly successful implementation of protocols and legislation in Europe, the
proportion of ozone, in particular, caused by other regions will become relatively more significant.
In more remote locations, changes in background ozone concentrations driven by changes in
methane and hemispheric emissions of ozone precursors subject to long range transport will
dominate (Royal Society, 2008).
More generally, it appears that pollution issues will need to be addressed further at a global level.
For example, the waste trade has grown rapidly in recent decades: exports of paper and plastic from
the EU15 increased more than five-fold between 1995 and 2005 (EEA, 2009). Legal exports and
illegal shipments of hazardous waste and electronic waste have grown in prominence (Milieu et al.,
2009). In future decades the solid waste produced in emerging economies is likely to grow
significantly – including economies such as China that now receive major shipments from the EU.
This implies that global agreements in this area may need to be strengthened. Moreover, Europe
may need to decide whether the balance between environmental protection and free trade in this
area should be adjusted, perhaps towards further domestic waste management.
The specific development of these policies and other drivers is unknown with the impact of
environmental governance on total and specific pollutant levels thus uncertain. At the global level,
possible agreements on climate change can lead to a decline in pollution, notably NOx and other
forms of air pollution emissions. At regional level, the development of agreements in areas such as
transboundary air pollution can play an important role. For instance the success of the Convention
on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) (Grennfelt, 2009), an EU programme, has
inspired South Asia to initiate inter-governmental cooperation on transboundary air pollution issues
under the Malé Declaration on Pollution Control and Prevention in South Asia (Hicks et al., 2001;
Kuylenstierna et al., 2007) which may, in time, be used to set regional standards. One of the
functions of the increasingly close interaction between the LRTAP Convention and these emerging
Asian inter-governmental agreements is in relation the transfer of the considerable experience in
Europe about air pollution to these regions. Environmental governance in emerging economies, and
in particular in India and China, will play a key role in shaping the future pollution trends and related
impacts on Europe’s environment.
In some areas, pollution control methods are spreading among countries. An example of this is the
adoption of the EURO standard approach in many Asian countries, though their European origins are
not always clear (In India similar emission standards are known as ‘Bharat Standards’). This may
increase as other regions of the world use European experience in reducing pollution; the possibility
of inter-governmental agreements in this area is also possible.
One element of the policy uncertainties will be the degree of greenhouse mitigation as some
(though not all) air pollutants are co-emitted with carbon dioxide. The impact of air pollution on the
degree of warming and climate change has a large uncertainty, mainly related to the uncertainty in
the scale of total global emissions.. Key uncertainties relate to the future use of coal worldwide,
including the quantity used as well as the technology used for instance the degree of
implementation of abatement equipment (MNP OECD, 2008).
As well as uncertainty in the scale and nature of pollutant emissions there is also current scientific
uncertainty relating to the extent of the interaction of pollution and climate change. For example
the impact of black carbon on warming has a high uncertainty (Forster et al., 2007), whereas the
impact of sulphate, ozone, CO and methane on radiative forcing are better quantified (Forster et al.,
2007).
Increasing amount of reactive Nitrogen in the environment
Nitrogen pollution is a global problem that is already causing significant impacts and has
important effects on the provision of ecosystem services. It is projected to increase in line with
food production and fossil fuel use.
Nitrogen makes up almost 80 % of the atmosphere in the form of N2 gas. This nitrogen is only
available to plants if it is 'fixed' into reactive forms. It is recognized that to increase food production,
there is a need for improved soil quality and fertility and this can be achieved in part by fixing this
nitrogen into the soil. Natural fixation in the atmosphere (via lightning for example) and in the soil
(by various processes including decomposition) is supplemented by cultivation of N-fixating crops,
such as rice and legumes, and by industrial production of nitrogenous fertiliser. However excess
nitrogen is being lost to the environment, partly due to inefficient farming practices related to the
quantity and timing of fertilizer application (GEO4, 2007). In fact, the amount of nitrogen fixed into
forms that are reactive in the environment has more than doubled compared to that available from
natural processes, such as nitrogen-fixing plants, fires and lightning (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: The nitrogen cycle
Modern agriculture is therefore a major cause of environmental pollution. At the planetary scale,
the additional amounts of nitrogen (and phosphorus) activated by humans are now so large that
they significantly perturb the global cycles of these two important elements (Rockström et al., 2009a
and b).
Agriculture is not the only source of reactive nitrogen, fossil fuel combustion, emitting large
additional amounts of NOX, increases the load of reactive nitrogen even further (Figure 3). The total
production of reactive nitrogen in the environment has more than doubled as the result of these
human activities, causing eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic habitats (Galloway et al., 2009).
In a baseline projection, total inputs of reactive nitrogen to agricultural land are expected to increase
by about 20 % by 2050, with the highest absolute levels in Asia see Figure 3 below.
The ability to fix nitrogen on large scales is unquestionably a boon to humanity (Galloway et al.,
2009). Perhaps 40% of the world’s dietary protein now comes from synthetic fertilizers, and
estimates suggest that at least 2 billion people would not be alive today without the modern
manifestations of the Haber-Bosch process1. Yet, in many developed nations, the products from
nitrogen intensive agricultural practices lead to unhealthy diets, whereas elsewhere a lack of
synthetic fertilizers, combined with depleted soil nutrient reserves, directly contributes to
widespread malnutrition (Townsend et al, 2003).
1
This is the industrial chemical process by which non-reactive atmospheric nitrogen is fixed into a useable form
Figure 3: Use of fertilisers and total reactive nitrogen inputs on agricultural land
The atmosphere directly receives about 15% of the reactive nitrogen created by human activities as
a consequence of energy production. Agricultural ecosystems receive 75%, most of which is either
transferred directly into the atmosphere or hydrosphere or lost to the environment during the
process of food production and consumption (Galloway et al., 2003). The remaining 10% of the
reactive nitrogen is used in industrial processes.
Eventually, this reactive nitrogen ends up in the wider environment, polluting waterways and the
coastal zone, accumulating in land systems and adding a number of gases to the atmosphere. It
slowly erodes the resilience of important Earth subsystems. Nitrous oxide, for example, is one of the
most important non-CO2 greenhouse gases and thus directly increases radiative forcing. As an
individual atom of reactive nitrogen can cause multiple effects in the atmosphere, in terrestrial
ecosystems, in freshwater and marine systems, and on human health (see Figure 40Error! Reference
source not found.). This sequence of effects has been termed the ‘nitrogen cascade’ (Galloway et
al., 2003) and can lead to substantial negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The
only way to eliminate reactive nitrogen accumulation and stop the cascade is to convert nitrogen
back to nonreactive nitrogen in the atmosphere.
Figure 4: The nitrogen cascade and associated environmental impacts. (Source: Adapted from
Galloway and others 2003 and redrawn by Robert Smith, Charlottesville, VA).
Nitrogen is both influenced by and affects climate; the net contributions of anthropogenic reactive
nitrogen to a changing climate remain widely debated (Forster et al., 2007). Reactive nitrogen can
directly increase radiative forcing in the troposphere, principally through the production of N2O and
tropospheric O3, but atmospheric reactive nitrogen can also have cooling effects (Forster et al.,
2007), largely through tropospheric aerosols and stratospheric O3 declines. Moreover, reactive
nitrogen has strong interactions with the carbon cycle that can have global-scale effects on
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) (Gruber and Galloway, 2008). Elevated
nitrogen deposition may stimulate plant growth in nirogen-limited regions and cause substantial CO2
uptake in Northern Hemisphere forests, although the size is controversial (Galloway et al. 2009).
nitrogen-driven carbon storage in non-forested or agricultural systems appears modest at best, and
nitrogen-fuelled increases in tropospheric ozone can reduce carbon uptake in all systems (see
Increasing effects on the environment and human health from ground based ozone). It remains a
major research challenge to quantify all relevant nitrogen interactions sufficiently to estimate the
net effect of reactive nitrogen on climate forcing.
Much of the knowledge on nitrogen dynamics is from the temperate world, yet tropical regions will
receive the most dramatic increases in reactive nitrogen inputs over the next few decades (Galloway
et al., 2009). Some tropical regions already experience elevated nitrogen deposition, acidic
deposition, and aquatic eutrophication, both from urban development and from a combination of an
increased extent and intensity of agriculture. The tropics are also home to the bulk of the planet’s
terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity. Given that elevated reactive nitrogen inputs are known to
contribute to biodiversity losses, the projected trends in tropical regions are cause for concern
(Phoenix et al., 2006).
The rapid development of biofuels has created an entirely new link between human activities and
the global nitrogen cycle and is particularly relevant to the tropics as this is where much of the
growth in biofuels is predicted to occur. Currently, much of the world’s biofuels are produced from
corn in the United States or sugar cane in Brazil. As with many intensive agricultural systems,
nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency in Brazilian sugar cane is low: only approximately 30% ends up in
plant tissues (Galloway et al. 2009). Thus, most of the applied nitrogen reaches the environment,
and because the sugar cane area is predicted to double in Brazil by 2016, the biofuel industry will
contribute to a rapidly changing tropical nitrogen cycle. Consequently, nitrogen-intensive biofuels
could cancel out potential CO2 savings by contributing to both N2O and tropospheric O3 production
(Gallagher, 2008). Second-generation biofuels will use more woody biomass from year-round crops
and production forests and tend to have much higher conversion efficiencies. Although the full
environmental consequences of these systems are also not well understood, their required nitrogen
use should be smaller than that of current first-generation crops.
In terrestrial ecosystems, the largest impact is in nutrient-poor environments, where some plants
that benefit from the added nutrients out-compete many other species and cause significant
changes in plant composition. Nitrogen deposition is already observed to be the major driver of
species change in a range of temperate ecosystems, especially grasslands across Europe and North
America, and high levels of nitrogen have also been recorded in southern China and parts of South
and Southeast Asia. Biodiversity loss from this source may be more serious than first thought in
other ecosystems including high-latitude boreal forests, Mediterranean systems, some tropical
savannas and montane forests (Bobbink et al., 2010).
Once reactive nitrogen enters the environment, its effects on terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric
realms can influence human health and welfare in several ways. For example, nitrogen-driven
increases in tropospheric ozone pose direct health threats to humans and cause substantial losses in
agricultural productivity (see Increasing effects on the environment and human health from ground
based ozone). Nitric oxide and ammonia emissions fuel fine-particle and tropospheric ozone
formation, which exacerbate pulmonary disease (Townsend et al., 2003). The health consequences
of drinking water with elevated nitrate levels, including cancer and reproductive risks, remain poorly
known but are important to resolve. Excess nitrogen in the environment may also change the
prevalence of important infectious diseases, including malaria, West Nile virus, cholera, and
schistosomiasis (McKenzie and Townsend, 2007). Yet, in some regions with heavy infectious disease
burdens, reactive nitrogen is needed for adequate nutrition to mount effective immune responses to
infection. As countries industrialised during the past century, improved nutrition alone reduced the
threat from infectious diseases.
In inland water and coastal ecosystems, the build-up of phosphorous and nitrogen, mainly through
run-off from cropland and sewage pollution, stimulates the growth of algae and some forms of
bacteria, threatening valuable ecosystem services in systems such as lakes and coral reefs, and
affecting water quality. It also creates ’dead zones‘ in oceans, generally where major rivers reach
the sea (GBO3, 2010). In fact the global quantity of reactive nitrogen exported by rivers to coastal
marine systems is projected to increase by about 4 % by 2030, with a decrease in OECD countries of
about 5 % overshadowed by an 11 % increase in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. In
these zones, decomposing algae use up oxygen in the water and leave large areas virtually devoid of
marine life. The number of reported dead zones has been roughly doubling every ten years since
the 1960s, and by 2007 had reached around 500 (Figure 5). The number of observed dead zones,
coastal sea areas where water oxygen levels have dropped too low to support most marine life, has
roughly doubled each decade since the 1960s. Many are concentrated near the estuaries of major
rivers, and result from the buildup of nutrients, largely carried from inland agricultural areas where
fertilizers are washed into watercourses. Figure 5 shows the high density of these dead zones
around Europe and indicates a significant impact of this trend on the European environment.
Figure 5: Marine “dead zones”. (Source: GBO3, 2010, updated from Diaz and Rosenberg (2008))
There are now large regions of the world where average nitrogen deposition rates are more than an
order of magnitude greater than natural rates. By 2050, this may double, with particularly high
levels in some regions. Landscape-level inputs may also be very large, especially for forest
ecosystems (Galloway et al., 2009). The projected rates are well in excess of the critical loads that
have detrimental impacts on receiving ecosystems (Bobbink et al., 2010) especially around Europe as
shown in (Figure 6). Critical loads for the open ocean have not been calculated, but it has been
estimated that the increasing amounts of atmospheric anthropogenic reactive nitrogen entering the
ocean could increase annual new marine biological production by approximately 3% and also
increase the emission of N2O to the atmosphere (Duce et al., 2008).
Figure 6: Estimated nitrogen deposition from global total nitrogen (NOy and NHx) emissions,
totalling 105 Tg N y−1 (teragrammes of nitrogen per year). The unit scale is kg N ha−1 y−1 (Source:
Dentener et al. (2006) shown in Galloway et al., 2009)
There is no doubt that excess reactive nitrogen in the environment is a global scale problem with
very many serious repercussions for society (Rockström et al. 2009a; Galloway et al., 2009).
Although there is a growing body of knowledge in nitrogen effects, especially in Europe and North
America, there is still uncertainty regarding the magnitude and direction of some of the effects and
the potential for increasing nitrogen use efficiency in the future. Furthermore, there is a great deal
of uncertainty surrounding the complex interactions that nitrogen has with other issues and indeed
other megatrends e.g. its interaction with climate change.
Increasing effects on the environment and human health from ground based ozone and particulate
matter pollution
Background levels of ground level ozone are increasing globally as emissions of their precursors
increase causing negative impacts on human and ecological health.
At the same time, particulate matter is increasing as a result of burning fossil fuels and other
biomass. These emissions are negatively impacting on human and ecological health and are
interacting with climate change in notably complex ways.
Ground based ozone
Ground level ozone, formed from emitted precursors, including nitrogen oxides (NOX), non-methane
volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4), has been recognised for
decades as an important problem and remains one of the most pervasive of the global air pollutants,
with impacts on climate change, human health, food production, the terrestrial carbon cycle and
biodiversity (Royal Society 2008; Pliejel et al., 2009; Sitch et al., 2007). Background tropospheric
ozone concentrations in the northern hemisphere have doubled since the industrial revolution as a
result of anthropogenic emissions of a range of ozone precursors. Agriculture and burning fossil
fuels in industry and transport are the main sources of these emissions.
While these precursors of ozone formation have decreased in Europe, background concentrations of
ozone have increased over time (Figure 7). The increasing emission of methane over this time
period is one likely contributing factor (Royal Society, 2008). However, global modelling indicates
that the overall impact of policy measures in Europe will lead to decreased ozone concentration
overall. Air quality modelling indicates that ozone ground-level concentrations may increase further
regionally, particularly in Asia, Africa and South America. The uncertainty is high, however, and the
adoption of policy measures can modify the emission trends to a considerable degree (Royal Society,
2008; OECD, 2008; PBL, 2008).
Figure 7: Trends in monthly mean and 12 month running mean (solid line) baseline ozone
concentration from April 1987 to April 2007 at Mace Head, Ireland (Source: Derwent et al, 2008 as
shown in Royal Society 2008)
Ozone concentrations which are found across large parts of the industrialised regions of North
America, Europe and more recently Asia, are at levels capable of reducing agricultural productivity
(decreasing yields of staple crops often by as much as 10 to 20%) and altering nutrient quality of
grains and tubers (Fuhrer & Booker, 2003); impacting the health of forest trees through processes
such as reduced photosynthesis, altered carbon allocation, pre-disposing trees to attach by pests
(Karnosky, et al., 2007); and affecting semi-natural grassland communities through changes in
productivity and species composition (Fuhrer, 2009).
Ground level ozone affects human health leading to increased mortality and respiratory problems.
Current ozone exposure levels in North America and Europe are associated with short-term acute
effects on the respiratory system resulting in increased daily mortality and morbidity in already
vulnerable individuals. There is also evidence that long-term chronic exposure has adverse effects
on lung function but the significance of these effects for long-term health is not yet known.
The impacts of ozone on biodiversity on a global scale are unknown, largely because there are
almost no studies of the sensitivity of ecosystems to ozone outside North America and Europe. To
assess the potential future impacts of ozone, the estimates of changes in global plant productivity
(GPP) due to ozone over the period 1900–2100 from Sitch et al. (2007) have been compared with
the location of priority conservation regions around the world using a map of the Global 200 (G200)
eco-regions (Olson & Dinerstein, 2002). If the threat to biodiversity increases in proportion to the
modelled reduction in GPP, this analysis suggests that the areas of greatest risk are in eastern North
America, Central Europe, the northern half of South America, Central Africa and South-East Asia
(Figure 8); all of these five zones contain one or more G200 eco-regions.
Figure 8: Assessment of key biodiversity areas at high risk from ozone impacts (source: Royal
Society, 2008)
Note: the figure shows the projected percent decrease in GPP due to ozone within the Global 200 priority
conservation areas. Projected ozone concentrations (based on SRES A2 global future simulations for the period
1901–2100).
Global yields of staple crops are reduced as a consequence of current ozone exposure, and this
impact is likely to increase in some regions even assuming the full implementation of current
legislation. In the USA in the 1980s the annual cost of loss of arable crop production due to ozone
was estimated to be $2–4 billion. In the EU in 2000 an estimated €6.7 billion was lost due to impacts
to arable crops. For the same year global yield losses were estimated to be $14–26 billion for rice,
soybean, maize and wheat combined. In some rapidly developing regions such as South Asia the
impact of ozone on the production of some staple crops such as wheat and rice may present a
significant threat to regional food security (Royal Society, 2008).
Future ozone concentrations are dependent on the future emissions of precursors globally, and
there is uncertainty about these. There is also an interaction with climate change and the influence
of climate change on future ozone concentrations is spatially and temporally variable, but there is a
general tendency for climate change to increase ozone over polluted land regions and reduce it over
the oceans (Royal Society 2008). Some projections of methane emissions show an increase over the
next decades which will affect background ozone concentrations.
Particulate matter
Fuel burning for heating, industry and transport leads to pollution of the air with small particles
(PM10 — particulate matter up to 10 micrometres in diameter). Particulate matter (PM) is causing
significant numbers of premature deaths and chronic illnesses around the world, especially in rapidly
urbanising developing countries where it is one of the major environmental causes of premature
death and chronic illness (Cohen et al., 2004, 2005). The World Health Organization (WHO) has
estimated that about 2.4 million people die prematurely every year due to fine particles (WHO,
2002; WHO, 2006c). This includes about 800 00 deaths due to outdoor urban PM10 (i.e. particles less
than 10 µm in diameter) and 1.6 million due to indoor PM10. This type of pollution is projected to
increase, particularly in rapidly developing countries (Figure 9). Many of Europe’s cities are affected
by PM levels as well. Although PM is a problem in Europe the total level of it is expected to decrease
assuming the enforcement of various policies relating to air pollution. However, projections see
increases in developing and industrialising regions (MNP OECD, 2008) where the uncertainty is much
higher due to the lack of knowledge of the long-term prospects for pollution control in many
countries.
Figure 9: Particulate matter pollution
PM emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels for heat and energy in domestic and industrial
sectors and from transport and vegetation fires start off as urban haze or rural smoke and ultimately
become transcontinental and transoceanic plumes of atmospheric brown clouds, known as ABCs
(Figure 10). The phenomenon of ABCs has become more frequent in recent decades over most of
the major continents, particularly in Asia (UN, 2007) and this type of pollution is projected to
increase, particularly in rapidly developing countries. These clouds consist of sulphate, nitrate,
hundreds of organic chemicals, black carbon, soil dust, fly ash and other aerosols (Ramanathan and
Feng, 2008).
Some of the substances that make up PM also affect radiative forcing and the thus contribute to
climate change dynamics. Some cool (such as sulphate and organic carbon) and some warm (such as
black carbon) (Forster et al., 2007; Ramanthan and Feng 2008; Hansson 2009). The balance of these
particles in the atmosphere will determine the extent of the warming from GHGs that are realised
over the next decades. Some particulate matter also affects cloud formation and rainfall distribution
(UNEP, 2002), although these effects are subject to a large uncertainty (Hansson, 2009).
Ironically, a large proportion of the climate cooling particles in the atmosphere are sulphur particles
that are being actively reduced by governments around the world to reduce health effects and
acidification problems. The challenge now is to ensure that air pollution laws that reduce the
masking effect of cooling aerosols be made radiant energy-neutral by reductions in black carbon and
ozone pollution that have a climate warming effect as well as have impacts on health and
vegetation. There is therefore an opportunity for integrated air pollution/climate change policies to
achieve multiple environment benefits, but although there is growing awareness of this possibility,
these policies are not yet being widely applied by governments.
Figure 10: Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) in Asia. From UNEP and C4 (2002) The Asian Brown
Cloud: Climate and Other Environmental Impacts UNEP, Nairobi. (Source: Courtesy of N. Kuring,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)
As well as uncertainty in emissions there is also current scientific uncertainty relating to the extent
of the interaction of PM pollution and climate change as set out above. For example the impact of
black carbon on warming has a high uncertainty (Forster et al., 2007), whereas the impact of
sulphate, ozone, CO and methane on radiative forcing are better quantified (Forster et al., 2007).
Increasing use of chemicals and release to the environment
More than 70,000 chemical compounds are currently used commercially and hundreds of
additional compounds are introduced each year. The impacts on and risks to human health and
the environment are not fully known due to insufficient information about amounts released,
their toxic properties, effects on health and safe limits for exposure.
Over time there has been an observed overall increase in the number of synthetic chemicals
released into the environment as more new chemicals are invented and put into use (OECD, 2001).
Although many improvements have been made over the last decades in reducing the pollution load
from the production and use of chemicals, there are still emissions from chemicals in all parts of the
production and consumption life-cycles.
At present, an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 chemical substances are in commerce (OECD, 2009). Of
these, less than 5,000 are produced in high volumes (over 1 million tonnes/year). The production of
chemicals in developing countries is expected to continue growing rapidly, increasing their economic
share of total world chemical production to around 30% by 2020 and almost 40% by 2030. A key
factor today and for coming decades is the ongoing shift in production of chemicals to developing
countries, accompanied by a growth of research. While OECD countries are expected to remain the
largest producers in economic terms, growth of the chemical sector in India, China and other
emerging countries is expected be higher (see Figure 11). Consumption of chemicals will also
increase rapidly in developing countries, which could account for about one-third of the global total
by 2020 (OECD, 2008).
Figure 11: Global chemical production by region, 2005-2030 (Source: OECD, 2008)
The impacts on health and human well-being of the general presence in the environment and the
consequent exposure of people to chemicals are not fully known (OECD, 2008; Rockström, et al.,
2009). Persistent and very persistent chemicals give the extra perspective of very long time frames
for the potential impact (e.g. substances like SF6, HFCs, PCFs2 with life-times in the order of
centuries) (UNEP, 2007). Subtle effects of long term low dose exposure are very challenging to
detect but may be serious. It has been cautioned that, for example, the widespread exposure of
neuro-toxic chemicals may already contribute to mild neuro-developmental disorders in children at
the global scale (Greandjean and Landrigan 2006). The release of pharmaceuticals in the
environment is another area of concern: the presence of hormone-mimicking substances in water
has been linked to the feminization of fish (EEA, 2010), and research is showing that a broad range of
pharmaceuticals are present in the environment (USGS 2010).
Some synthetic chemicals are persistent and bioaccumulate. The 2001 Stockholm Convention on
Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) seeks to regulate these at global scale. Other international
agreements also play a role including the POPs Protocol of the Convention on Long Range
Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe. Climate change will affect the way chemicals are used as
well as the environmental transport and fate of the substances once released into the environment
(Noyes et al, 2009; Jenssen et al., 2006).
2
SF6 is sulphur hexafluoride, HFC is hydrofluorocarbons and PCFs are perfluorocarbons. These are long lived
green house gases often referred to as ozone depleting (referring to high altitude, non tropospheric ozone)
The environmental and health effects of chemicals may arise throughout their life cycle. An
important concern in Europe is related to the effects of chemicals in imported goods. For the rest of
the world, a key concern is related to the chemicals in waste exported from Europe and other
regions, for disposal, including electrical and electronic waste. Overall, there is a lack of knowledge
regarding the risks of chemicals in the environment and in products (OECD, 2008). Some
environmental aspects of chemicals, such as toxicity and eco-toxicity, exposure and emissions, are
regulated by legislation on issues such as pesticides, biocides and radioactive substances.
Contrastingly, the EU REACH Regulation (2007 Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation
and Restriction of Chemicals) provides a comprehensive approach to industrial chemicals in
manufacturing and products. But there is little information on the human health and environmental
risks related to many of these chemicals.
A further concern is that traditional toxicological assessments are undertaken on individual
chemicals: the toxicity of the breakdown products is less certain and the overall impact of the
‘cocktail’ of chemicals on ecosystem structure and function (especially in marine and freshwater
ecosystems) and on human health through ingestion of chemicals in food is unknown and
methodologically challenging to adequately test for (see e.g. VKM 2008 and Carpenter et al., 2002).
The largest uncertainty related to chemicals and their impacts on the environment revolves around
both the pace of technological development as well as its direction. These uncertainties are difficult
to estimate: with thousands of new chemical substances created each year, it is difficult to predict if
one of these may have major adverse effects – or if the ‘cocktail’ of substances may in future
decades produce new consequences.
A range of new technologies may increase this uncertainty. For example, nanotechnology will allow
the creation of new forms of materials. Biotechnology already accounts for about 8% of chemicals
production (OECD, 2008), and its role is expected to grow sharply in coming decades. The
interaction of these two fast-developing fields could bring new breakthroughs in coming years (Biois,
2010).
Another key uncertainty is related to politics and policy measures. In recent years, actions have
been taken at international level to address problems related to chemicals, such as the 2001
Stockholm Convention on POPs. Regional and national initiatives have been taken, as seen in the
new EU legislation, REACH. As technological development and chemical production shifts to new
economies, such as India and China, a key uncertainty relates to their future legislation to assess
risks from new chemical substances
Drivers of GMT 10 – Increasing environmental pollution load
GMT 10 – Increasing environmental pollution load
Social
Pollution increases as the through-put of resources in the global economy increases. Thus the
projected increase in population and the rise of a global middle class may increase pollution globally;
however marked regional disparity is likely.
Growth of transport sector, especially motor vehicles in emerging economies will have significant
impact on the pollutant emissions from these regions, and increase concentrations of ground level
ozone and particulate matter pollution.
Public awareness and education will have a significant impact on consumption patterns, particularly
relating to efficient use of resources and the waste hierarchy of reduce, reuse, recycle, recover and
dispose.
Technological
The increase in the demand for consumer electronics, which often use small quantities of heavy
metals in forms difficult to recycle, is likely to significantly increase pollution in the long-term.
Improvements in technology such as increased reusability and alternative materials offer the
potential to reduce the environmental pollution load. Others such as 3D printing have a less clear
impact offering as it does both the potential for more disposable products but more efficient
production.
Improved pollution monitoring technology may lead to more pressure to reduce pollutants as their
impact and scale become visible to the public and decision makers.
Development of “green chemistry” (that is chemical products which are specifically designed to have
low or positive environmental effects) offsetting negative impacts of other chemicals. Examples
include biodegradable, non oil based plastics
Lack of waste treatment options in developing countries leading to continued inefficient and
damaging waste management technologies such as uncapped landfill.
Economic
Pollution increases as the through-put of resources in the global economy increases therefore the
scale and location of economic growth will drive pollution levels.
The cost of fuel impacts directly on the cost of fertiliser production and on the emission of PM and
ozone precursors therefore increased costs of fuel may decrease the production of these pollutants.
Environmental Climate change is likely to compound coastal water pollution, reducing river flows and concentrating
pollutants and potentially increasing migration towards urban areas.
Climate change can exacerbate ozone formation and may increase related health and environmental
effects.
The capacity of the environment to absorb pollutants and provide ecosystem services is likely to be
diminished by climate change.
Political
Developments within environmental regulation and chemical control will change the nature, type
and amount of potential pollutants. There is also the potential that a lack of political will to enforce
existing or proposed legislation may lead to less effective environmental regulation and chemical
control
Interlinkages to other GMTs
The megatrends of GMT5: Continued economic growth?, GMT 7: Intensified global competition for
resources, and GMT 1: Increasing global divergence in population trends will drive the processes that
lead to the production of waste and the different pollutants, including reactive nitrogen, particulate
matter and ozone precursors.
Although there will be an increase in the activities that lead to emissions, the implementation of
legislation and new technologies that lead to reductions in emissions (GMT4: Accelerating
technological change: racing into the unknown), may contribute to a decoupling of pollution from
economic growth. For example, economic growth and energy use per unit GDP have decoupled in
several key economic regions since 1990.
These interactions can be seen in detail in terms of one of the pollution trends, nitrogen, and
specifically the issues related to the creation of reactive nitrogen. Here a key factor is that GMT 1:
Increasing global divergence in population trends, together with changing consumption patterns due
in part to GMT 2: Living in an urban world will increase the demand for food and therefore increase
the use of nitrogen fertiliser, with associated release into the environment. The increasingly affluent
population will tend to eat more meat, again increasing the amount of nitrogen in each person’s diet
and thus total nitrogen use and release (Galloway et al., 2003).
A more affluent global population will lead to rapidly increasing electricity demand, increasing the
emission of nitrogen oxides from fossil fuel-based power stations and transport. However,
counteracting this would be fuel switching for electricity generation (e.g. to renewable or nuclear
energy), in particular related to climate change policies.
Similarly, for particulate matter (PM) pollution, a growing population in poorer countries, using
current cooking methods will give rise to increased emissions and indoor particulate matter
concentrations. However, a shift to more modern fuels (e.g. LPG) or improved stoves, which is
related to the megatrend of GMT5: continued economic growth, will eliminate or reduce PM
emissions. An increasing population with access to more resources will lead to increasing transport
demand, potentially using diesel vehicles, causing further particulate matter pollution. However,
fuel switching (e.g. to compressed natural gas) or the incorporation of particle traps (such as the
EURO 5 standard) globally would reduce the PM burden substantially in part this may be driven by
GMT11: Environmental regulation and governance.
Ozone pollution follows a similar trend, as the anthropogenic emissions of precursors is driven by
population and the increased consumption due to GMT5: Continued economic growth? and GMT2:
Living in an urban world is affecting NOX, CH4, CO and nmVOC (non-methane Volatile Organic
Compound) emissions, but tempered by technological development and application of control
measures to key precursor emissions, the resulting emissions over the next few decades will result in
the interplay of these megatrends.
The emissions of air pollutants are of direct relevance to GMT9: Increasingly severe consequences of
climate change. Many substances considered traditional air pollutants also have radiative forcing
properties. For example, sulphate formed from sulphur dioxide emissions cool the atmosphere.
The importance of the chemical sector to the European economy, and related political support for
this industry raises the potential for increasing the emissions of new synthetic substances to the
environment, but this is counteracted by increasingly stringent regulation and enforcement in
Europe (e.g. REACH legislation) as described in GMT11: Environmental regulation and governance.
This has an effect on the rest of the world, especially for any products that are to be exported to the
EU, which will tend to reduce pollutant releases. However, the pollution loads in many Asian,
African and Latin American countries remains very high and in many cases largely unregulated, as
compliance is underfunded.
GMT10: Increasing environmental pollution load has interlinkages with:
Social
• GMT 1: Increasing global divergence in population trends
• GMT 2: Living in an urban world
Technological
• GMT4: Accelerating technological change: racing into the unknown
Economic
• GMT 5: Continued economic growth?
• GMT 7: Intensified global competition for resources
Environmental
• GMT 9: Increasing severe consequences of climate change
Political
• GMT11: Environmental regulation and governance: increasing fragmentation and governance
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Versioning
20092012JB
Final review and edit OW 20-09-12