Download CHIESA_Idea Paper Phase 2_24052015

International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology
P. O. Box 30772-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
Tel: +254 20 8632710; Fax: +254 20 8632001/2
[email protected] —http://chiesa.icipe.org
CONCEPT NOTE
PHASE 2 – CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND FOOD SECURITY IN
EASTERN AFRICA (CHIESA) PROJECT – ENHANCING RESILIENCE OF THE AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS
1. DEVELOPMENT PROBLEM AND JUSTIFICATION
The accelerating climate change process has serious impacts on the agricultural and livestock production
systems in Africa. Increased variability in temperatures, rainfall and cropping seasons interplay with
human-induced land use change thus modifying the ecosystem services (e.g. water, soil, pollinators, pest
and disease antagonists) on which the current rain-fed small-scale farming systems are grounded. This
widely challenges the resilience of agro-ecological systems and food security of the communities.
High resolution ensemble climate projections for Africa (AFRICLIM 2.0) created during the 1st phase of
the CHIESA Project indicate that the mean annual temperature will be warmer in eastern Africa during
2041–2070 than in the 1961–1991 baseline period. Based on the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 the projections show a warming trend in eastern Africa. The mean annual
temperature will be 1.8–2.4 °C warmer in the Taita Hills in Kenya, 1.9–2.6 °C warmer in Mount
Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and 2.3– 3.0 °C warmer in the Jimma highland in Ethiopia by the year 2070.
Plotted trends for the wettest/driest quarters (1981-2013) clearly show the drying trend for Mount
Kilimanjaro. However, this is not evidence for climate change per se, but of course it is real and
important for communities living on the area, and it does align with the AFRICLIM 2.0 projections,
which suggest that while the other two transects (Taita Hills and Jimma Highland) can expect more rain
on average over the year and/or during wetter months, this is not the case for Mount Kilimanjaro. The
mean annual rainfall is projected to slightly increase in the Taita Hills but remain similar to the baseline
in Kilimanjaro and Jimma. However, these climate projections also indicate that in all three areas the
drier quarters of the year will become drier, and the wettest quarters will become wetter, except in
Kilimanjaro where there is no projected change during the wettest time of the year. This means an
increase in extreme climatic events, such as dry spells and floods in eastern African highlands in the
future.
The findings of the CHIESA Project Phase 1 indicate that increasing temperature worsens the impacts of
insect pests on staple and cash crops, such as stem borers on maize, coffee berry borers on coffee,
diamondback moths on crucifers and citrus, and fruit flies on avocado which will negatively affect food
security and livelihoods of small-scale farmers on the highlands and montane regions in eastern Africa.
The results project range expansion of the harmful lowland species to the higher altitudes above 1,200
m.a.s.l. and increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes. Thus by year 2055 damage
will increase in most agro-ecological areas in the highlands. The communities and extension agencies
across the altitude need to be made aware of the changing spectrum of pests identified in the 1st phase.
Available integrated pest management (IPM) technologies for the emerging pests need to be widely
disseminated and promoted. However, increasing temperatures on the high altitude zones also provide
An FAO Reference Centre and a Stockholm Convention Regional
Centre
suitable conditions for some of natural enemies from the lowlands (e.g. Cotesia vestalis parasitizing
diamondback moth on crucifers). Such positive changes can be utilized in adapting integrated pest
management technologies for farmers affected by climate change. Our results show that diversification of
plant structural composition, e.g. using wild crucifers as companion crops, wild grasses around the
chambers, shading of coffee plantations can help in buffering the adverse impacts of seasonal changes
through conservation of useful natural enemies and provision of suitable microclimatic conditions for pest
insect management.
Demographic change (e.g. population growth, and rural-urban migration of especially the young
generation) and cultural traditions, such as subdivision of the farmland for children by their parents, will
cause further fragmentation of agricultural production units and reduce their size beyond the sustainable
production levels that are conducive to sustain constant yields by families. Additionally, shifts in
consumer choices in terms of diets and produced crops and commodities increase pressure on few
remaining pasture lands, and available farm land and forests. There is already a tendency among the
farmers in the Taita Hills to practice zero-grazing due to the unavailability of pasture land. A shift to more
meat-based diets due to increased wealth can contribute to increasing methane emissions. To enhance the
resilience of the agro-ecological systems under these projected changes requires implementation of land
use options that aim at sustainable intensification of crop production. Farmers should adopt more efficient
and environmentally-friendly farming methods to produce larger amount of healthy food on a small area
of land and to manage the resource base (e.g. soil nutrition and water) in a sustainable manner. Reduction
of pre-and post-harvest yield losses becomes even more critical in the future due to the above mentioned
circumstances. Farmers need technologies with immediate impact and benefit observed during the
following harvest season but which can also provide means to cope with projected long-term impacts of
environmental change. Climate change projections can be used to provide guidelines for decision-makers
to determine the best and most suitable land use and management options for each target area. They may
have to consider trade-offs between the existing labor-intensive and subsistence-based production systems
and those with a greater reliance on high value export markets, intensification and mechanization.
Community-based climate change adaptation action plans developed in the 1st phase call upon
interventions to enhance integrated water and land management processes which will not only address the
problems in water supply (quality and quantity) during the climate extremes, but also improve agroecosystems through intercropping, cereal-agroforestry systems, and soil organic matter management to
enhance resilience. Vegetation structure in the neighboring forests and crop surroundings play an
important role in ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change, especially since natural vegetation
fragments within croplands can enhance water availability, contribute to soil organic matter, proliferate
pollination, increase natural enemies and reduce insect pest infestation levels. There is a need to
investigate further how integrative systems as opposed to mono-cropping practices can buffer climate
change effects. Integrated landscape level management processes should build on the ecological and
socioeconomic interrelationships between different agro-ecological zones and land use types in order to
enhance their resilience across a range of spatial scales from landscape to households. Adaptation actions
implemented on the upstream landscapes of a river basin should not create negative effects on the
ecosystem services, livelihoods and food security on the downstream landscapes and people.
Multifunctional landscape interventions will be the core focus of Phase 2 of the CHIESA Project.
2. OBJECTIVES
2.1.
Dissemination of results from Phase 1
In Phase 2, we will continue to disseminate research results from the 1st phase to the central governments
to achieve policy interventions. Results will be communicated, linked with and incorporated into the
development and implementation of National Programs and Strategies, such as the National Forestry
Programme in Kenya where forest productivity includes multi-sectoral components, such as Farm
Forestry and Forestry for Food. Our results can advise decision-makers on the importance of
(mountain/highland) forests and its associated biodiversity on pollination and pest control services for the
adjacent farmlands as well as catchment for water retention during heavy rain events and further soil
conservation.
Trained Ph.D. and M.Sc. scholars under Phase 1 will be mobilized and given a role as trainers within their
home organizations and to disseminate findings, provide hands-on-training of methods and tools as well
as to enhance organizational capacity-building on climate change adaptation. They will ensure that skills
and knowledge on biological control of insect pests, water resources management, forest and farm
biodiversity and economic valuation of ecosystem services will be trickled down to their colleagues
within the national research institutes and universities. Their available satellite Remote Sensing and
airborne laser scanner and hyperspectral data analysis skills sets and Geographical Information Systems
will be used to identify and map critical areas and ascertain the effects of project interventions.
The project shall actively engage bridging the gap between research outputs and their implementation in
the agricultural sector in Africa by enabling farmers to access innovations and enhance their interaction
with scientists. A scientist-farmer-feedback platform will be established using mobile phone-based
Mobile Advisory Service for identification of emerging pest and disease constraints and dissemination of
IPM strategies. New project partners, ESOKO and CARE will help integrate Phase 1 results into mobile
technology solutions, such as SMS, to provide information services for farmers across the target
regions/action sites listed below. They will ensure a wide dissemination and utilization of the Phase 1
results at the local level and support their implementation. AfroMont Network will help disseminate the
results to scientists and research organizations throughout Africa, mainly to the highland and montane
regions, but also elsewhere where applicable.
Outreach and dissemination materials will be used for conducting awareness campaigns, farmer training,
and field days. Awareness campaigns will be organized for all beneficiaries (NARS, farmers, NGOs and
policy makers) and in view of the planned training activities and field days for wider dissemination of
climate change adaptation strategies. Local media (TV, radio and newspapers) will be updated regularly
on all aspects of the project in addition to the updating of CHIESA website and corresponding social
media activities (Facebook and Twitter). In addition, short introductory and teaching movie clips will be
put to the project website. Outreach materials will be available for free-download on the project website.
Biovision will participate in dissemination of the results through their Organic Farmer Radio, Magazine
and information centers in the field.
2.2.
Implementation of research results
CHIESA Phase 2 will support the implementation of the developed community-based climate change
adaptation action plans among small-scale farmer communities which grow maize as their main staple
crop in sub-Saharan Africa. We will help these communities diversify farm income through more diseaseresistant avocado and coffee trees and improve food security through environmentally-friendly and
climate resilient cropping methods and pest management tools for maize and horticultural crops. This will
be carried out through implementation of Conservation Agriculture practices, IPM (e.g. biological control
technology and soil correction for maize, fruit fly IPM for avocado, biological control program for
crucifers and habitat management for coffee), and biopesticide optimization. Our suggested interventions
will promote establishment of cereal-agroforestry/farm forestry systems to provide overstory to reduce
soil evaporation and improve soil water infiltration, and soil organic matter management to create healthy
soils with improved water retention capacity and enhanced tolerance to drought.
Implementation of results on-the-ground will be done by conducting training of trainers (ToT) workshops
at different levels (lighthouse farms, extension service agents, local authorities, small-and-medium
enterprises, agricultural training colleges) on all aspect of project outputs (climate change adaptation,
integrated land and water management, cropping system, ecosystem services and policy). Institutional and
human capacity development at the R&D, policy and legislative levels will be crucial to facilitate
information and knowledge flows among stakeholders interested in climate adaptation and mitigation for
resilience. A series of ToT workshops that seek to improve knowledge sharing among extension workers,
farmers association, NGOs, private sector partners and potential entrepreneurs, regulatory bodies, R&D
institutions and universities will be organized at project action sites in the application of CHIESA 1
outcome and how this will permit improved livelihood in support of economic development. New
demonstration sites (2-3 per country) for farmers’ field schools (FFSs) with a comprehensive gender
balance will be established. These demonstration sites will help equip farmers with better understanding
on improving water use efficiency, land use options and on adoption of Conservation Agriculture and
IPM strategies. Technical support, training and funds (through microfinance institutions) will be provided
to local institutions and farmers associations, such as the Water Resource Users Associations, Community
Forestry Associations, Women’s Self Help Groups, farmer groups and conservation groups, to enhance
their capacity to implement multifunctional landscape initiatives. Implementation of research results
through Farmers’ Organizations will permit to channel our results through an already existing structure
and network. CHIESA messages will be formatted at the organization level, while the organizations being
in charge of the dissemination to a large number of small-scale farmers with CHIESA support. Therefore,
more farmers could be reached rapidly, at a reasonable cost.
We will anticipate scenario production to the action sites/region using the quantitative climate change
information via AFRICLIM 2.0 and qualitative information from developed social scenarios for 2041–
2070 to support decision making from the household to national policy with packaged interventions.
Participatory Land Use Planning will be used as a tool for integrating climate change and land use change
risk maps with adaptation planning. This Participatory Land Use Planning toolbox can be used to
integrate findings from the different work-packages from Phase 1 and embed these results within
perspectives from local communities, research institutes, NARES and policy makers. The planning
toolbox will be used to assess the likelihood of change, the magnitude and drivers of this change and
provide a decision support tool to enable the transitions driven by population growth, land use change,
crop choice and climate change. The scenarios toolbox is essentially a way to integrate multiple GIS
layers and combine with stakeholder perspectives (from the local to the national).
Remote sensing and GIS will be used for the spatial planning of CHIESA 2 multifunctional landscape
interventions (for proposing urgently needed and potential areas for interventions) together with abovementioned authorities and institutions, and also with national research organizations and universities. The
power of GIS is in finding the areas where interventions maximize the benefits (hopefully many at the
same time). These interventions are namely, enhancing the tree cover for adaptation and increased
resilience, biodiversity and habitats, for water resources and for carbon sequestration. For example, water
resources mapping and modelling can make use of airborne laser scanning data and high resolution digital
elevation models in the Taita Hills obtained in the BIODEV project (e.g., mapping water harvesting
methods in use such as terraces and certain tree species/vegetation types). The species distribution and
land use change models developed in Phase 1, as well as established insights into the drivers and intensity
of land use change in the region, will be up-scaled and validated in other Eastern Afromontane
Biodiversity Hotspots and highland areas action sites in Ethiopia (Semien Mountains and the Bale zone),
Kenya (Mt. Kenya, Marsabit, Muranga in Aberdare Range and Mau), Tanzania (East Arc Mountains,
Southern Highlands and Rungwe Mountain).
Organizational capacity building for the National Agricultural Research and Extension Services (NARES)
will be organized in cooperation with the project partners. CHIESA Phase 2 will support the adoption of
ecosystem services Decision Aid Tools (e.g. InVEST), preferably by trained staff at the local government
level. This is important for “adaptive management” of agro-ecosystems and implementation of Integrated
Water and Land Resources Management at basin level as part of the multifunctional landscapes
interventions. The objective is to ensure that local institutions have improved capacity to make informed
decisions on the best and most suitable land use and management options. Adaptive management requires
also that monitoring of changes of ecosystem services stock is directly carried out by local governments
in collaboration with the local communities. Capacity building for NARES staff is needed to ensure that
they are able to continuously gather appropriate data and information for adaptive management of
ecosystem services. They should also be able to evaluate the impacts of Payment for Ecosystem Services
systems which have to be adopted and designed for multifunctional landscape interventions. Remote
sensing and GIS in the CHIESA Phase 1 was found to be a strong, efficient and flexible tool for
environmental monitoring and modelling. Similar work will be done in the Phase 2, but in addition the
GIS tools will be applied in multifunctional landscape interventions and for scaling up. The
multifunctional landscape interventions are straightforward actions with existing data and tools, but will
be conducted together with local research organizations to build their capacity.
2.3.
Involvement of local institutions
Multifunctional landscape interventions which aim at enhanced resilience of agro-ecosystems must build
on multi-sectoral collaboration with authorities and institutions responsible of water, forests, agriculture
and development at different administrative levels. Phase 2 will work closely with Tanzania Forest
Services Agency, Kenya Forest Service, Pangani Basin Water Office, Ethiopian Institute of Water
Resources, and Water and Land Resources Centre of Ethiopia to design and implement interventions
based on the up-scaling of findings and community-based climate change adaptation action plans from
Phase 1. Phase 2 will support these institutions to take the lead in their respective countries and regions to
implement the action plans together with CBOs, NGOs and CSOs.
Our research findings on the Willingness to Pay for Ecosystem Services show that there is potential for
Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) to work as a policy mechanism to improve conservation and
achieve sustainable use of ecosystems and enhancement of resilience of agro-ecosystem in the project
areas. CHIESA Phase 2 will support the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Services in the
project areas by linking beneficiaries (users) with producers (providers) – the aim is to lay down a ground
for sustainable funding of good agricultural practices, e.g. Conservation Agriculture. This will be
complemented with targeted educational campaigns and clear dissemination of PES success directed at
both the general public and elected officials. In the PES component the CHIESA Phase 2 will collaborate,
organize co-facilitated training events and share experiences with the FoodAfrica Project Phase 2 which
is also funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. We will also identify other areas of close
collaboration in dissemination and capacity building with the FoodAfrica project during the planning and
preparations of Phase 2.
NARES will be important partners of Phase 2 to adopt and continue research activities e.g. collecting and
analyzing data to monitor and understand long-term interactions between insect pest incidences and
intercropping through increased crop diversity. There is also a need to continue extrapolation and
validation of species distribution models and land use change models and carry out studies on the
diversity of phytophagous and their antagonists to help reduce the impact of pests, and studies on
historical climate vs. future trends. It is also important to continue monitoring meteorological parameters
in the three original research areas. In order to know more about climate change we need direct long-term
observations and evidence of this phenomenon. We have a baseline from CHIESA 1 but through
continuous systematic monitoring during Phase 2 we can see within the next 2 years more evidence for
this change and how it relates to the modeled perspective.
3. GENDER AND EQUITY CONSIDERATIONS
Women already produce the majority of all food though their contribution is not well recognized within
our production systems. Women should have an equal role to men in everything that is undertaken in
society. The 2nd Phase of the CHIESA project will support this transition by focusing on women in farmer
groups to develop their roles as assessors of the impacts of interventions. There is plenty of potential and
empowering that can be done by targeting on local small groups of women to become assessors within the
community.
Phase 2 will help women to establish small businesses through the utilization the products of
environmentally-friendly and climate resilient cropping methods. Support will also be given to local
women groups to establish and maintain nurseries for e.g. avocado and coffee trees which are more
disease-resistant. These women groups can decide if the produced saplings will be planted on their farms
to diversify production or sold for income generation to their household.
The detrimental effects of climate change are not perceived in the same manner between the genders. In
many of these contexts, women are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than men primarily
as they constitute the majority of the world’s poor (UN Woman Watch). Besides due to their poor
revenue women are highly dependent on local natural resources that are affected by climate change for
their livelihood with the responsibility to secure water, food and fuel for cooking and heating face the
greatest challenges. In many African societies, access to land for women is a serious cultural issue. The
process of decision-making in many instance have given priority to men leaving women behind. But men
and women must have equal opportunities to influence and benefit from the progress that are made to
address climate change. They should be full-fledged collaborative actors working together to offer better
conditions to their children and the community to a larger extent. Therefore the 2nd Phase of CHIESA
will give special attention to the role of women and develop a balanced dissemination strategy for more
gender equity. Increasing women’s participation in climate change adaptation and mitigation will improve
household stability and as a result will also benefit children with better care and well being.
Phase 2 will also continue working with small-scale farmers who have special needs due to disability or
social exclusion (marginalization). Their active participation in planning, design and implementation of
multifunctional landscape interventions is highly important to avoid maladaptation or outputs that will
further deteriorate their food security and livelihoods.
4. ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES AND IMPACT
Multifunctional landscape initiatives (integrated water and land management) successfully launched in 10
different highland/montane areas in three sub-Saharan African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania)
with direct impact on food security and livelihood of 10,000 small-scale farmers and indirect impact on
rural and urban people living downstream of the catchment where action sites are located. These
initiatives include utilization of Conservation Agriculture methods as well as IPM technologies on farm
by 3,000 small-scale farmers.
Over 100,000 farmers will have access and actively use the Mobile Advisory Service for identification of
emerging pest and disease constraints and dissemination of IPM strategies in Africa. With this service and
implemented ecologically-friendly and climate resilient cropping methods the Phase 2 of the CHIESA
Project will help reduce small-scale farmers’ yield losses caused by insect pests by 30-40% before year
2020. Local women groups have established and successfully manage over 100 nurseries which will
provide additional income for 1,000 households in the action sites and areas by 2019.
5. AVAILABLE RESOURCES
In addition to the knowledge gained in the CHIESA Phase1 the available resources that will be utilized
during CHIESA Phase 2 are as follows: geospatial datasets generated, temperature and rainfall data at the
farm level, other meteorological data at the transect level, soil data, land use land cover change maps,
hydrological maps and projections, satellite & aerial imagery, laser scanning and hyperspectral data for
some areas, long term pest, diseases and natural enemy dynamics data, IPM strategies developed and
information from other on-going R4D projects at icipe, laboratory platforms for biological studies on
pests, long-term insect colonies, behavioral and chemical ecology laboratories. The project will continue
using the available project vehicles, weather stations and data loggers, GPS devices, computers and other
equipment purchased during the 1st Phase. The project already has operational web site and social media
platforms. We have well-trained Ph.D. and M.Sc. degree holders working in national research institutes
and universities as well as well-established networks with communities and small-scale farmers and their
associations on-the-ground in all three original research areas.
6. PARTNERS
ICIPE (Coordinator of Phase 2; IPM Technology Implementation, Transfer and Policy Sensitization),
ESOKO (Mobile Technology for information provision to farmers), CARE Climate Change Information
Centre (Adaptation Learning Support and Training), Biovision (Farmer Communication; The Organic
Farmer Radio), Tanzania Forest Services Agency (Forest and Bee Resources Management), Kenya
Forest Service (Farm Forestry and Tree Farming), Pangani Basin Water Office (Integrated Land and
Water Resources Management Strategies), Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources (Adaptive Water
Resources Management), Water and Land Resources Centre of Ethiopia (Information Management
System for Water and Land Resources), Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (Farmer Field
Schools and demonstration sites), Sokoine University of Agriculture (Payment for Ecosystem Services),
University of Dar es Salaam (Water Resources Management interventions), Jimma University
(Community outreach and development), AfroMont Network (Dissemination to African Mountains and
Highlands), University of Helsinki (Multifunctional landscape modelling and interventions), University
of York (Biodiversity; Interactions between pest incidences and vegetation structure; Social Scenarios),
CIRAD and IRD (IPM Technology Transfer).
7. PRELIMINARY SCHEDULE
Project performance period is planned for two years from January 2016 to December 2017.
8. TENTATIVE BUDGET
1.0 million euro for 24 months
9. COORDINATION AND MANAGEMENT
International Center of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) continues to carry out the coordination and
management of the Phase 2 in Nairobi, Kenya.