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Modern Observations: Temperature Data and their Interpretation Thomas C. Peterson NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina 1 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Outline • How the climate is changing according to the data • Efforts to insure the data base is robust • Post production quality assurance • Climate change attribution • Final comment – Each of the above topics could be a full presentation on their own 2 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 How the climate is changing according to the data 3 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Global temperatures are rising 4 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 US temperatures are generally similar 5 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Global warming is not uniform around the globe, e.g., the SE US cooled 6 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, From TX IPCC, 2007 April 23, 2007 More warming in the last few decades 7 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX From IPCC, 2007 April 23, 2007 The recent observed climate change is beyond the bounds of natural variability From IPCC 2007 8 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 The hottest summertime temperatures are increasing North American average 9 From Peterson et al., 2008 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Coldest winter temperatures are warming faster North American average 10 From Peterson et al., 2008 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Efforts to insure the data base is robust 11 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 International data exchange Note drop in data during WWII 12 Source: Scott Woodruff American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Quality control • A wide variety of checks have been developed to identify erroneous data points. Bilma Niger From Peterson et al., 1998. 13 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Homogeneity adjustments – Sea Surface Temperature example From UK Met Office Hadley Centre From Smith and Reynolds, 2002 • Adjust historical data to make them equivalent to being observed by modern instruments at current station locations SST measured before ~ 1941 are significantly cooler than later SST, owing to change from using uninsulated buckets to a mixture of insulated buckets and engine American Association of Petroleum Geologists 14 intakes. coolant water San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Homogeneity adjustments – Land air temperature station example Reno Nevada annual minimum temperature From Menne et al., 2008 15 • Red is fully adjusted • Black is only time of observation adjusted • Top: temperatures • Bottom: difference between Reno and mean of 10 nearest neighbors American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Spatial interpolation to fill in data sparse areas • Prevents bias towards areas with good international data exchange • NCDC’s approach uses Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection Functions 16 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Post production quality assurance 17 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Comparison with other data sets: They show the same thing American Association of Petroleum Geologists From 18 Menne and Peterson, 2007, updated from IPCC 2007 San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Comparison of land and oceans: They show the same thing 19 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Comparison of urban and rural stations: They show the same thing 20 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, From Peterson and Owen (2005) and IPCC 2007TX April 23, 2007 Some stations have poor siting 21 American Association offrom Petroleum Geologists Photographs Davey Sanand Antonio, TX Pielke, April 23, 2007 Sr. (2005) Comparison of stations with poor and good siting: They show the same thing 22 From Peterson 2006 Antonio, TX warming April 23, 2007 Poorly cited stations in this example San show less American Association of Petroleum Geologists Doesn’t a station over concrete have a warm bias compared to a station over grass? • For climate change purposes the relevant questions are: – Does the bias change over time? – Can the changing bias be accounted for? 23 Photographs from Davey and Pielke, Sr. (2005) American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 A poorly sited station compared to its neighbors Raw data Homogeneity adjusted data Marysville, CA, USHCN v2 24 • The station is 2º C warmer than neighbors • But adjusted data’s trend agrees with its neighbors American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Comparison of homogeneous and homogeniety adjusted stations: They show the same thing The stations with good siting only needed two minor and offsetting time of observation adjustments 25 From Peterson 2006 San Antonio, TX American Association of Petroleum Geologists April 23, 2007 Comparison of surface and upper air: Satellites and balloon data also show warming. From IPCC, 2007 26 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Comparison with non-thermometer data • Data from sources other than surface thermometers indicate that the world is warming 27 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Arctic sea-ice is shrinking http://nsdl.org/resource/2200/20061002125757277T 28 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Antarctic sea ice is increasing • The data indicate cooling in the far southern oceans • So increases in Antarctic sea ice supports the data 29 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Lakes and rivers are freezing later and thawing earlier From IPCC, 2007 30 American Association of Petroleum Figure 4.5 Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Glaciers are melting 31 American Association of Petroleum Geologists From IPCC, 2007 San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Sea level is rising From IPCC, 2007 32 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Plants and animals are acting as if it is warming • Plants are blooming 1-3 days/decade earlier – “Altered timing of spring events has been reported for a broad multitude of species and locations” (IPCC 2007). • Animals species are moving poleward – “Many studies of species abundances and distributions corroborate predicted systematic shifts related to changes in climatic regimes” (IPCC 2007) 33 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Climate change attribution 34 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Detection and attribution • The climate has warmed – Statistically significant change – Climate change has been detected • But what has caused the detected change? – Climate change attribution 35 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 • Each climate forcing has its own fingerprint of change in the climate. 36 American Association of Petroleum Geologists From CCSP 1.1 San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Models with and without human produced climate forcings reveal: • “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” (IPCC 2007). 37 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Final comment • Stepping out into record hot weather, a friend who is an expert on climate change detection and attribution was asked if the high temperatures they were experiencing were due to global warming • He responded: – You can’t attribute any one day’s temperature to global warming – But unusually warm weather like that does give us the privilege of experiencing the weather we are bequeathing our children and grandchildren 38 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 The End 39 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 But didn’t all the scientists predict global cooling back in the 1970s? Global cooling articles only 10% total climate change articles 7 cooling articles 20 neutral articles 44 warming articles 40 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX From Peterson et al., 2008. April 23, 2007 Aren’t all the solutions painful? • Efficiency can work wonders From: Brown et al., 2005 41 – Electricity use per refrigerator has decreased to <30% of 1972 value – Meanwhile, refrigerator size has increased – And refrigerator price has decreased (in constant dollars). American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007 Selected References • • • • • • • • • • Brown, M.A., F. Southworth, T. K. Stovall, 2005: Towards a Climate-Friendly Built Environment. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 91 pp. Menne, M.J. and T.C. Peterson, 2007: Surface Temperature, in State of the Climate in 2006. Arguez, A. ed., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, S11–S12. Menne, M.J., C.N. Williams, Jr., and R.S. Vose, 2008: The United States Historical Climatology Network serial monthly temperature data - Version 2. BAMS, submitted. Peterson, Thomas C., Russell S. Vose, Richard Schmoyer, and Vyachevslav Razuvaëv, 1998: GHCN quality control of monthly temperature data. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 1169-1179. Peterson, Thomas C. and Timothy W. Owen, 2005: Urban Heat Island Assessment: Metadata are Important. Journal of Climate, 18, 2637-2646. Peterson, Thomas C., 2006: Examination of Potential Biases in Air Temperature Caused by Poor Station Locations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1073-1080. Peterson, Thomas C., Xuebin Zhang, Manola Brunet India, Jorge Luis Vázquez Aguirre, 2008: Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press. Peterson, Thomas C., Marjorie McGuirk, Tamara G. Houston, Andrew H. Horvitz and Michael F. Wehner, 2008: Climate Variability and Change with Implications for Transportation, National Research Council, in press. Peterson, Thomas C.,William M. Connolley and John Fleck, 2008: The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2002: Bias corrections for historical sea surface temperatures based on marine air temperatures. J. Climate, 15 73-87. 42 American Association of Petroleum Geologists San Antonio, TX April 23, 2007