Introduction Overview of Financial Markets and Investment Risk and Return Investment Management Process 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Setting investment Objective Establishing Investment Policy Selecting a portfolio strategy Selecting the assets Measuring and Evaluating Performance Investment Management Process 1.Setting investment Objective Understand profiles and risk tolerant level in order to set objective to satisfy the obligations stipulated in the policy. i.e. pension fund, insurance company, retirement person etc. 2.Establishing Investment Policy Must be correspond with the objectives Make asset allocation decision Investment Alternatives Major Categories Financial Assets Direct Investing Real Assets Indirect Investing Mutual Funds Non marketable Money market -Saving deposit -T-bill -CD -NCD -Whole Life Insurance -Commercial Paper i.e. B/E and P/N -Foreign Exchange Real Estate Precious Metals Fix Assets Hedge Funds Capital market -Fixed Income i.e. Gov.bond, State Enterprise bond, Corporate bond, T-note, Prefer stocks, Mortgage pass-through -Common Stock Derivative Securities - Options i.e.Calls/Puts - Corporate created i.e Convertibles, Warrants - Forward - Futures Investment Alternatives The Historical Record: A First Look McGraw Hill / Irwin Investment Alternatives Average Returns: The First Lesson McGraw Hill / Irwin Market sizes of developed stock markets Market coverage of developed stock market Market capitalization of emerging markets Size of govy bond market Investment Management Process 3. Selecting a portfolio strategy Actives - use information and forecasting techniques to seek a better performance Passives – diversification Structured – match the funds received from contributions to the future liabilities 4.Selecting the assets Picking securities to build your portfolio Efficient portfolio – provides the greatest expected return at a given level of risk Investment Management Process 5. Measuring and Evaluating Performance Benchmark Return vs. Risk Risk management Risk and Return Two key observations emerge There is a reward for bearing risk, and at least on average, that reward has been substantial. Greater rewards are usually accompanied by greater risks. In summary, high risk should compensated by high return Return Components Returns consist of two elements: – Periodic cash flows such as interest or dividends (income return) – Price appreciation or depreciation (capital gain or loss) Total Return =Yield +Price Change Measuring Returns For comparing performance over time or across different securities Total Return is a percentage relating all cash flows received during a given time period, denoted CFt +(PE - PB), to the start of period price, PB CFt (PE PB ) TR PB Measuring Returns Example: Calculating Returns Suppose you invested $1,000 in a stock at $25 per share. After one year, the price increases to $35. For each share, you also received $2 in dividends. CFt (PE PB ) $2+($35-$25) TR = 48% PB $25 Total dollar return = 48% of $1,000 = $480 At the end of the year, the value of your $1,000 investment is $1,480. Measuring Returns Total Return can be either positive or negative – When cumulating or compounding, negative returns are problem A Return Relative solves the problem because it is always positive CFt PE RR 1 TR PB Measuring Returns Example: What is Relative Return in the previous example? RR 1 TR =1+48%=1.48 Measuring Returns To measure the level of wealth created by an investment rather than the change in wealth, need to cumulate returns over time Cumulative Wealth Index, CWIn, over n periods, = WI (1 TR )(1 TR )...(1 TR ) 0 1 2 n Measuring Returns Example: The Return Relatives of a particular stock investment in two consecutive years are 1.48 and 0.95, assume CW0 is $1000, what is Cumulative Wealth Index, CWI2, over these 2 years? CWI WI (1 TR )(1 TR ) $1000*1.48*0.95 $1406 2 0 1 2 Measures Describing a Return Series Arithmetic mean, or simply mean, X X n Arithmetic Versus Geometric Arithmetic mean does not measure the compound growth rate over time – Does not capture the realized change in wealth over multiple periods – Does capture typical return in a single period Geometric mean reflects compound, cumulative returns over more than one period Geometric Mean Defined as the n-th root of the product of n return relatives minus one or G = (1 TR1)(1 TR2 )...(1 TRn ) 1 1/ n Difference between Geometric mean and Arithmetic mean depends on the variability of returns, s 1 G 1 X s 2 2 2 Adjusting Returns for Inflation Returns measures are not adjusted for inflation – Purchasing power of investment may change over time – Consumer Price Index (CPI) is possible measure of inflation TRIA 1 TR 1 1 CPI Measuring Risk Risk is the chance that the actual outcome is different than the expected outcome Standard Deviation measures the deviation of returns from the mean X X s n1 2 1/ 2 Risk Sources Financial Risk – Tied to debt financing Market Risk – Overall market effects Liquidity Risk – Marketability without sale prices Inflation Risk – Purchasing power variability Exchange Rate Risk Country Risk – Political stability Interest Rate Risk – Affects income return Business Risk Risk Types Two general types: – Systematic (general) risk • Pervasive, affecting all securities, cannot be avoided • Interest rate or market or inflation risks – Nonsystematic (specific) risk • Unique characteristics specific to issuer Total Risk =General Risk +Specific Risk Risk Premiums Premium is additional return earned or expected for taking additional risk Equity risk premium is the difference between stock and risk-free returns Equity Risk Premium, ERP, = 1 TRCS 1 1 RF Risk and Return McGraw Hill / Irwin The Lesson The greater the potential reward, the greater the risk.