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Download The Delta Project: Past and Future Dr. Jeroen Aerts March 2009
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The Delta Project: Past and Future ASCE Met Section Infrastructure Group Seminar 2009 March 2009 Dr. Jeroen Aerts www.adaptation.nl 1 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 2 Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 3 Rotterdam 4 5 6 7 NYC 8 R’dam 9 -4m / -7m -2m / -4m +15m / -2m +50m / +15m +322m / +50m North Sea Germany Belgium Flood 1855 11 1938 Hurricane 1953 SW Holland (‘Zeeland’) NY 1938 Zeeland 1953 # casualties 600 1800 Max waterlevels ~4-6m ~4m #houses destroyed 14000 49000 damage 300 mill. U$ 700 mill. U$ Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 14 Delta-act Æ Delta Plan C A B C D B B B A B D C C B D 14 A D D C D D B D C D C B B D Series of dams and barriers Rotterdam Antwerp Arguments for Delta plan • Full protection: Storm surge may not happen again • Dams & barriers shorten the coastline : raising 1000 km of dikes is more expensive • Create fresh water reservoirs & protection against salt intrusion • Fresh water as potential for recreation 17 Brouwersdam Haringvliet Sluices 3km Haringvliet sluices Haringvliet sluices Value of Estuary: Eastern Scheldt Barrier Rotterdam Tide Tide free shipping route Mussel fishing Antwerp Eastern Scheldt barrier: 3 barriers over 3 km Maeslantbarrier; Accessibility Rotterdam harbor Construction costs Year in operation Net present value 2007 million € Net present value 2007 million € [Disc rate 2%] [Disc rate 4%] Storm Surge barrier Hollandse IJssel 1954 98 126 Haringvliet barrier 1961 1,464 1750 Brouwersdam 1961 353 421 Hellegatsplein and Volkerak sluices 1961 477 570 Grevelingen dam 1961 165 197 Storm Surge barrier Oosterschelde 1986 3,850 6161 Compartmentworks 1984 837 1295 Canal through Zuid-Beveland 1984 915 739 Maeslant storm surge barrier 1997 477 559 Europoort barrier and Hartel barrier 1997 253 259 8,9 12,1 Total costs [Billions Euro] Content 1. Geographical location 2. History of Delta project 3. Climate Change: New Delta Project 28 Climate Change / Sea level rise 29 Climate Change / Sea level rise Climate Change 30 Socio Economic trends Pop growth 22 milj +2.5% Economic growth +1 % 16 milj Pop decrease 10 milj 31 2015 2100 Rotterdam 1684 32 Rotterdam 1940 33 Rotterdam 2000 34 landgebruik "Gezicht op Nieuw Amsterdam" by Johannes Vingboons (1664) landgebruik 36 landgebruik 37 Land use 2015 16 Mil. inhabitants 38 38 Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid 2007 www.adaptation.nl Land use 2100 22 Mil. inhabitants 39 39 Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid 2007 www.adaptation.nl Risk based approach • Socio – economic impacts: – Casualties – Direct damage – Indirect damage • Probability of an extreme flood • Risk = probability * damage Resilience • Adaptive capacity (o.a. finance, recovery, governance ….) 40 Nichols et al, 2008 Risk : probability * Damage Development of flood risk for the Netherlands Only 150cm SLR Only 85cm SLR Current risk: ~100 milj. Euro/year Only high economic growth Risk Milj euro/year Only 60cm SLR Only low economic growth year 42 Uncertainty Source: http://info.insure.com, 2002 43 Source: cnn 2007 Erosion: work with nature NY area: Netherlands: +/- 4 million m3 sand/ year +/- 20 million m3 sand/ year 46 New Delta PLan Dike Extra pumping capacity Dike Beach Nourishment Dike Dike 47 River widening Building codes, Innovation in Architecture Costs of adaptation Far Future SLR [cm] Max Discharge Rhine [m3/s] Max Discharge Meuse [m3/s] Costs Re enforcement Levees [Billions Euros] Beach nourishment [Billions Euros] Total [Billions Euros] [Billions Euro’s] Risk When to invest? Acceptable level of risk Time 2006 50 2050 2100 Original costs in 1970: 1,5 Billion Euro’s (2007) Option 1. Replacement of doors for 60cm = 100 Million Euro Option 2: replace whole barrier = 1 Billion Euro’s Lifetime barrier = 100 years Design criteria in 1970 = 20cm sea level rise in 100 years ÆBarrier is 50 years old: “ only10cm sea level rise to go” Æ With a SLR of 60cm/100years, the barrier would not fit design criteria in ~2025 Æ In 2025 invest 100 Million Euro to replace doors (replacement whole barrier in 2070-2120) However: If SLR is 150cm then replacement of whole barrier would be much earlier, and hence, replacing only doors in short term is not an option Conclusions • Barrier concept works, but adjustments needed: – Environmental aspects – Shipping • Working with nature – Beach nourishment – River widening • Architecture / building codes • Climate change poses new challenge – How to design measures such they are flexible to accommodate different future scenario’s 54 Thanks! www.adaptation.nl www.deltacities.com 55