* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Mann, ME, Emanuel, KA, Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Attorney General of Virginia's climate science investigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
North Report wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Climate Change, and Atlantic Hurricanes Michael E. Mann Department of Meteorology/Earth and Environmental Systems Institute/Department of Geosciences Pennsylvania State University Dept. of Geography Coffee Hour September 25, 2006 Climate Change Influence on the Destructive Potential of Atlantic Hurricanes? Katrina (Aug 28 ’05) Climate Model Predictions Knutson, T. K., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17(18), 3477-3495. Observed Trends P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, 309, Issue 5742, 1844-1846 , 2005. Observed Trends Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, online publication; published online 31 July 2005 | doi: 10.1038/nature03906 Climate Change? OR natural variability? Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, online publication; published online 31 July 2005 | doi: 10.1038/nature03906 EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (“ENSO”) Multivariate ENSO Index (“MEI”) Secular Warming Pattern Mann, M.E., Park, J., Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach, Advances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999. Multidecadal Pattern Cold season Mann, M.E., Park, J., Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach, Advances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999. Warm season Multidecadal Pattern Mann, M.E., Park, J., Bradley, R.S., Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries, Nature, 378, 266-270, 1995. “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” (AMO) Model Model Influence of AMO and Hurricanes? Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Influences on tropical Atlantic SST Global Mean Aug-Oct SST [G(t)] (Aug-Oct) T(t) = aG(t) trop Atl (6-18N, 20-60W) Aug-Oct SST Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Residual [R(t)] Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Spectrum of Residual (1870-1999) Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Spectrum of Residual (1870-1949) Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Residual [R(t)] Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Hansen, J. et al, Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776 (2005).) Influences on tropical Atlantic SST T(t) = aG(t)+bS(t) bS(t) aG(t) trop Atl (6-18N, 20-60W) Aug-Oct SST Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Influences on tropical Atlantic SST T(t) = aG(t)+bS(t) (full data) trop Atl (6-18N, 20-60W) Aug-Oct SST Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Influences on tropical Atlantic SST T(t) = aG(t)+bS(t) (full data) T(t) = aG(t)+bS(t) (predicted 1970-1999) T(t) = aG(t)+bS(t) (fit to 1870-1969) trop Atl (6-18N, 20-60W) Aug-Oct SST Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Residual [R(t)] Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Spectrum Spectrumof ofResidual Residual(1870-1999) (1870-1999) “Before” Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. Estimation of AMO Influence Spectrum of Residual (1870-1999) “After” Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006. AMO Influence on TCs? TC #s vs T(t) TC #s vs R(t) CONCLUSIONS •AMO does not significantly project onto tropical North Atlantic SST •Apparent multidecadal oscillation in tropical Aug-Oct Atlantic SST an artifact of late 20th century aerosol forcing •Anthropogenic climate change (including tropospheric aerosol trends) appears primary factor influencing tropical Aug-Oct Atlantic SST and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) •Late 20th century tropospheric aerosol cooling has offset a substantial amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming in the region and has thus likely suppressed even greater potential increases in TC activity. “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” (AMO) Observations Observations Model “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO)