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Climate Security in Africa: Towards a new
generation of environmental conflicts?
Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research
Presentation at the EGMONT, ACTED, CERI and CEAN
Conference “Climate Change and Security in Africa”
20 January 2009 in Paris
Overview
1. Climate Security: A new generation of environmental
conflicts at the front door?
2. Climate Security and the importance of converging trends
3. Key pressures in Africa:
From human to (inter)national security?
4. New modes of governance needed
1. Climate Security: A new generation of
environmental conflicts at the front door?
North Africa & Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific, Latin America
and the Caribbean (1980-2005)
1. Climate Security: A new generation of
environmental conflicts at the front door?
Climate Change ….
is a threat multiplier
will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies
reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
increases number and intensity of conflicts
leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena
1. Climate Security: Future global & regional hot
spots
Quelle: Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung (2007):
Climate Change as Security Risk.
2. Climate Security & the importance of converging
trends
Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a
world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
In regional terms this will be reflected particularly in the
population dynamics in Africa, which is set to grow from 900
million (2005) to nearly 2 billion (2050)
Resource consumption: in a long term rise in consumption of
energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy
needs will increase by more than 50%.
Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s
population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city
populations – nearly 50% – will be in Africa and Asia.
Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
2. Converging trends: Risks in key sectors
Water: decresing water availability,
changes in precipitation, melting of
glaciers, extreme weather events,
increasing competition of demand
Infrastructure,
energy supply and transport:
environmental change due to
climate change increases
running costs (damages,
flooding etc) or reduces energy
production (hydro)
Agriculture: Decreasing
agricultural production,
economic decline, more
unempoyment, food
shortages, increasing
competition of demand
Urbanisation: Increasing desaster risks,
health risks, growing population
dynamics, growing slums
3. Key pressures in Africa:
From human to (inter)national security?
Current situation:

Overall: Water scarcity, desertification & soil salinisation

Poverty, demographic pressure, increasing urbanization,
economies are highly dependent on agriculture

Large number of violent conflicts and post-conflict countries,
combined with widespread governance insufficiencies
Trends in Middle East and North Africa (MENA):

Temperatures are expected to increase by 2°C in 2040, leading
to a reduction in available water resources of 20%- 30%

2025: Per capita water availability region is expected to
decrease to a little more than 500m³ due to population growth
and economic use

Security trend: negative consequences for water-intensive
agriculture, higher unemployment, coastal areas at risk,
dependence on food imports likely to increase, water and food
conflicts?
3. Key pressures in Africa:
From human to (inter)national security?
Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Regional increase in temperature will be higher in Africa than the
global mean – in some cases up to 50%

An additional 250-550 million people could be affected by hunger
if there is a temperature increase of 3°C; it is likely that, by 2050,
75% of all undernourished people will be concentrated in Africa

In some countries agricultural yields could decline by more than
50% by 2020 and incomes by more than 90% by 2100

Six of the ten largest African cities are located near coasts. In
West Africa, a roughly 500 km long metropolitan belt is developing
between Accra and the Niger Delta, which will be highly vulnerable
in the face of any rise in sea level

Security trend: Drought, famines and flooding as major drivers of
migration and further regional destabilization >> worst case:
transcontinental belt consisting of reinforcing fragile states
4. New modes of governance needed
Reduce global GHG emission to limit the risks of climate change: Build a
Post-2012 agreement incl. a comprehensive adaptation framework
Increase dialogue between partner countries to develop - conflict sensitive
- adaptation strategies (as many will be implemented in conflictive
environments)
Set regional priorities in the field of adaptation to address the specific
needs in fragile states and states in conflict and post-conflict situations
Bilateral or as part of EU regional approaches: (Niger delta, Sahel belt, Nil
basin, Horn of Africa, East Africa)
Improve regional and local capacities for early warning & early action: To
this end systematically integrate climate vulnerability data into existing
early warning systems
Support regional arrangements for coordination and cooperation such as
transboundary water institutions in different fragile regions in Africa
Thank you very much!
More information at
www.ecc-platform.org