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Transcript
Global Footprint and Growing
Oerlikon
Textile
Oerlikon
Vacuum
Oerlikon
Coating
Oerlikon
Drive Systems
Oerlikon
Components
Oerlikon
Solar
North America
Europe
Asia
•Sales
•Customer Support
•Operations (est. 2009)
• Solar HQ
• Operations
• Pilot Line
• Advanced R&D
• Product Development
• Customer Support
& Training
• Sales
• Operations
• Pilot Line
• Technology Center
• Customer Support
& Training
Intense energy consumption of conventional sources drives
CO2 emission
Energy consumption, particularly power generation, is responsible for CO2 emissions
“Energy production is – by far - the most important driver
for emissions of greenhouse gases.”
STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change
“In 2030, global CO2 emissions will be 70%
more than today … and power generation
will account for almost half the increase.”
International Energy Agency: Emissions report
Source: Stern Review “The Economics of Climate Change”; IEA
CO2 emissions and concentration in the atmosphere have
been rising substantially in the last ~50 years
CO2 concentration in atmosphere
(in ppm)
375
350
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
(in M t/year)
8.000
CO2 concentration in
atmosphere
7.000
6.000
325
Carbon emissions from fossil fuels
5.000
300
4.000
275
250
1960
Pre-industrial CO2 level
3.000
2.000
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: CO2 concentration: C.D. Keeling, T.P. Whorf et. Al., “Air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii”;
CO2 emissions: G. Marland, B. Andres, T. Boden, “Global emissions from fossil burning”
CO2 concentration in atmosphere responsible for global
warming and climate change
Upsala Glacier, Arg: Once the biggest in South America, now disappearing at a rate of 200m per year
1928
“According
to relevant
scientific
contributors
manmade
“According
to relevant
scientific
contributors
manmade
emissions
of
carbon
dioxide
(CO
)
are
driving
…
global
emissions of carbon dioxide2 (CO2) are driving
… global
climate
to unprecedentedly
warmer
temperatures”
climate
to unprecedentedly
warmer
temperatures.”
IPCC:IPCC:
Survey
of IPCC
Climate
Experts
Survey
of IPCC
Climate
Experts
2004
“… emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main gas
responsible for climate change, as well as of other
'greenhouse' gases …”
European Commission's Climate Change Campaign
Source: IPCC, European Commission
… consequently, the Fossil Fuel Era will be over soon
Illustration of Fossil Fuel Era
Corresponding facts
• Fossil fuel created:
Within the last 600
Million years
Energy (fossil sources) for mankind
• Mankind on earth:
250,000 years
Years
AD
0
500
1000
Renewables
Source: Litsearch
1500
2000
Fossil
Fuel Era
2500
?
3000
• Fossil Fuel Era:
300 years
(1800 – 2100 AD)
Global Energy Supply until 2100
Source: solarwirtschaft.de
Solar PV enables multiple applications
Grid-connected
Distributed
 Residential roof-top
 Commercial roof-top
 BIPV (building
integrated PV)
Centralized
 Power plant/ solar
park (Groundmounted systems,
mounting may
include tracking)
Off-grid
Domestic
 Roof-top or BIPV
installations in
villages for public
and private buildings
Non-domestic
 Rural (e.g., water
pump)
 Ubiquitous consumer
products
(e.g., clothing)
 Space/ high value
(e.g., satellites)
Source: IEA, Sarasin; Expert Interviews; Oerlikon analysis
Two major technologies within Solar PV: the established bulk
crystalline silicon cells and thin film as challenger
Solar modules based on
crystalline silicon
Solar modules based on
thin film depositions
 Production:
 Production:
 Solar modules produced on the basis of a
(crystalline silicon) wafer
 Modules produced via deposition of very
thin films onto a glass substrate
 Cell functionality, e.g. contacts for electricity
extraction, applied onto crystalline wafer
 Cell functionality, e.g. contacts, also
deposited via thin transparent films
 Economic & ecologic characteristics:
 Economic & ecologic characteristics:
 Current silicon shortage makes production
significantly more expensive
 Lower module production costs and CO2
emissions due to better raw material
efficiency
 Relatively high (vs. thin film) CO2
emissions during production due to higher
raw material intensity
Market share decreasing
Source: Industry Reports; Litsearch
 Competition of several technologies (e.g.,
Silicon thin fim, CdTe, CIS/ CIGS) additional
driver for cost reductions
Market share increasing
Oerlikon Solar growth outpaces the photovoltaic market
Revenue goals*
Installed production capacity / Solar
(million CHF)
1200
>1.000
250
Ø growth rate 2006-2015
Thin film
74.8%
Crystalline Si
49.4%
Total market
54.0%
200
1000
>700
800
GWp
150
600
100
400
50
200
>300
>140
0
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crystalline silicon
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006
2007
2008p
2009p
Thin film
*Revenues 06-07 pro forma, Solar as stand-alone segment from 08
Primary Production Technologies for Solar Cells
Technology
Substrate
Cell
Issues
Crystalline
Silicon
Cost
Silicon Supply
Thin Films
Large Scale Mfg.
Efficiency
Thin Film Solar Cell Basics
Thin Film Solar
Panels
Thin Film Solar
Cell Structure
Manufacturing
Order
Glass
Front Contact
PV Material
Back Contact
Lamination
Glass
Thin
Films
Key process elements needed for scalable
Thin Film PV Manufacturing
LPCVD
PECVD
Deposit Contacts
Deposit PV Material
Laser Scribers
Define Cells
Micromorph Process Technology– up to 50% more Efficiency
The principle of light trapping
to
deliver
high performance
Best
Commercial
TCO
TCO
mc-Si:H
aSi:H
Oerlikon TCO
Visible
Near IR
Amorph
Micromorph
Tandem
•Integral to Micromorph process
a-Si/IR
µ-Si
-High transmission in visible and near
light
spectrums
•The goal is to optimize the haze
to better the performance.
Oerlikon is the leading supplier of silicon thin film turnkey
solutions
Source: Oerlikon
TCO 1200 – Proprietary TCO Enables Higher Efficiency
TCO
TCO back contact
TCO: Transparent Conductive Oxides
Clean
TCO
Laser
PECVD
Laser
TCO
Laser
Assembly
TCO 1200 – Proprietary TCO Enables Higher Efficiency
The principle of light trapping
Clean
TCO
Laser




Haze
T400-800
T400-1100
Rs
PECVD
Laser
10-25%
93%
92%
<10 Ohm
TCO
Laser
Assembly
KAI 1200 – Proven Technology for PV Layers
- Plasma Box® for single reactor
processing
- 40 MHz for increased deposition rates
- Parallel processing (20 reactors) and
load lock for high throughput
Clean
TCO
Laser
PECVD
Laser
0.3 µm
amorph
2 µm
micromorph
TCO
Laser
Assembly
LSS 1200: Key to Efficiency and Reproducibility
The only system qualified for
- mass production
- all 3 laser scribing patterns
Pattern 3
Pattern 2
Pattern 1
Glass
Clean
TCO
Laser
Pattern 1
PECVD
Laser
Pattern 2
TCO a-Si:H
TCO
Back Contact (TCO)
Laser
Pattern 3
Assembly
LSS 1200: Key to Efficiency and Reproducibility
The only system qualified for
- mass production
- all 3 laser scribing patterns
Clean
TCO
Laser
Pattern 1
PECVD
Laser
Pattern 2
TCO
Laser
Pattern 3
Assembly
It’s All About Lowering Cost per Watt to Reach Grid Parity
$
=
Wp
Oerlikon
Advantage
Total Cost
Throughput x Power
Turnkey Advanced
Manufacturing Lines
Micromorph
High Efficiency
Tandem Solar Cells
Cost of Ownership Development to Grid Parity
Thin Film Si Roadmap
100%
2010
for GWp campuses
< 0.7 $/Wp (<0.52€*/Wp)
80
2007
for 20 MWp fabs
< 1.5 $/Wp (<1.12€*/Wp)
60
40
20
0
Current
small
fabs
Equipment
cost
decrease
Material
cost
decrease
Other
cost
decrease
Tact
time
decrease
Cell
efficiency
increase
Economies
of scale
2010
large
fabs
*exchange rate 1€ = 1.34$
Achieving Grid Parity
Module efficiency
Fab nominal capacity
GW/p
13%
12%
capacity
1
11%
0.3
10%
0.12
0.08
Generation
8%
0.04
Micromorph
Tandem
7%
2006
$/W
Next
9%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Thin-Film
Amorph
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012
Cost of ownership
CapEx per Watt
$/Wp
1.5
4.00
3.50
1.0
Grid Parity
3.00
2.50
GigaFab
2.00
0.5
1.50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
(Calculated with an exchange rate of €1.00 =$1.34)