Download Basic Facts and Policy Implications The South Asian countries are

Regional Energy
INDIA
Security Strategy
Basic Facts and Policy Implications
The South Asian countries are very much inefficient in energy use.
•
South Asian region has 23per cent of the world population with only 2.1per cent of the world GDP
and Gross National Income of South Asian countries excepting Maldives was estimated as US$ 524,
which was only 10per cent of world average income of US$ 5,240 in 2003.
• Economies of South Asian countries are showing remarkable GDP growth during the recovery from
global meltdown.
• It is estimated that the energy demand will grow with the economic growth almost at equal rate.
China and India alone are consuming almost quarter of the oil production of the world, although the
population of these two countries is more than one-third of the world.
• All the countries of South Asia are very much concerned about the energy situation because of
miss-match between the demand and supply situation.
• More than 50per cent of the people of South Asia do not have access to commercial energy,
particularly, electricity which is regarded as the harbinger of modern economic development.
• Issue of energy security in different countries of South Asia is being looked at from the country
perspective.
• Integrated energy planning approach needs to be institutionalised in all countries of South Asia to
ensure energy security of each country.
• South Asian countries must go for cleaner energy for meeting their future energy demand and
ensuring long term energy security.
• In the event of sky rocketing increase in crude oil price, South Asian countries should take
appropriate measures to reduce the demand for liquid fuel.
• South Asian countries have abundant potential for harnessing renewable energy and all of them
must go for harnessing future energy demand from renewable sources.
• If the issue of energy security can be considered from inter and intra-regional perspective, then
solution to the problem of future energy security becomes much easier to accelerate the pace of
economic development to change the fate of teeming millions of South Asia
China: Challenges VS opportunity
Basic Facts:
 China, the world’s largest energy consumer, has a tendency to make a splash when it enters global energy markets.
 In oil markets, crude prices rose along with China’s import volumes in the early 2000s, after the country became a net
importer of oil in 1993.
 In coal markets, its shift to being a net importer of thermal coal in 2009 pushed prices to their current record highs.
 According analysts , the country may soon have the same effect on natural gas.
 The government plans to promote natural gas consumption because it is cleaner-burning than oil or coal.
 Under Beijing’s blueprint, gas use will more than double during the next five years to reach 260bn cu m, making China
the world’s thirdlargest gas market after Russia and the US.
1. One trend: Soon No 1
2. Two Challenges:

1) Heavy reliance on coal

2) High dependence on oil
3. Three Strategies

1) decarbonization

2) Diversify oil supply

3) Secure oil transportation
Soon will be No 1 Second largest energy consumer soon
pass the US; double 1,742 Mtoe in 2005 to 3,819 Mtoe by
2030;
2500000
2000000
1500000
China Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)
Japan Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)
1000000
India Energy use (kt of oil equivalent)
United States Energy use (kt of oil
equivalent)
500000
0
Challenge 1: heavy reliance on coal 69%,
Trad i ti on al pollu tion: 16/ 2 0 , 5 . 8% ;
Climate change: No 1 CO2 emitter
Energy efficiency: cut 20% energy intensity
Decarbonize: Nuclear 8GW-70GW
Hydro 170 GW to 300GW; Wind 15GW to 120 GW; Solar No 1
0.80%
3.40%
0.80%
7.40%
coal
oil
18.60%
natural gas
hydro
nuclear
other renewables
69%
Diversification : 60% from Middle East,
A f r i c a : We n $ 1 0 0 b i l l i o n ,
Russia & Kazakhstan CIC investing, Latin America,
Investment help increase production
 China Crude Oil Import by Source (Thousand Barrels per day, 2008 total 3568 )
646
725
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Oman
113
Kuwait
UAE
232
425
Angola
Sudan
Russia
203
Kazakhstan
281
596
91
118
Others
Secure Oil shipping:
Sea route: Malacca Hu’s visit, two destroyers Samolia, Aircraft
carrier,
2) international pipelines
Energy demand in India will be about
4.36per cent and demand for electricity will
grow by about 8per cent per annum till
2020.
 5th largest consumer of energy in the world (375.8 mtoe) ->
3rd by 2030 (812 mtoe)
 2.9 mbd petroleum -> 6 mbd (2030), 152 GW -> 800 GW
(2030)
 Middle East – 67% of India’s oil purchases
 Population of 1.1 Bn, ~700 Mn in poverty
 High energy prices are hugely politically sensitive
 Climate change strategy inextricably linked with energy
strategy
Key issues
 Tense neighborhood
 State-owned actors – NOCs, SOEs
 Competing for equity oil stakes abroad
 Climate change
 4th largest coal reserves in the world –
concentrated in the most backward regions
of India
 Power sector challenges
Primary energy sources
Recommended strategy
 Diversifying supply
 Improved demand-side management
 Increased focus on nuclear, renewable & natural gas
 Restructuring the energy sector
 Securing technology transfer & fuel supply abroad
 Equitable sharing of benefits
 Military – internal security & stability, deterrent to aggression from
neighbors
 Navy – securing supply routes
Pakistan
•Geo- Strategic Importance
•Current Situation – likely to Worsen
•Challenges
In Pakistan, fuel based primary energy
demand will increase at a rate of 3.72per
cent and demand for electricity will grow by
8per cent per annum till 2020.
Projected Energy
Deficits
(Millio
n TOE)
2006
2015
2025
Total Indigenous Supply
Total Energy Energy
Requirement
42
61
75
58
110
198
Deficit
Deficit as % of Energy
Requirement
16
50
122
28
45
62
 Possible Future Scenarios- 3 possiblities
 Exogenous Developments
Pipelines
Strategies
 Social, environmental and human development implications
 Institutional fragmentation
 Privatization
 Energy efficiency
 Gas pipelines
 Implementation
The Maldives
In Maldives, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at rate of 5.84per cent
a n d d ema n d f o r el ectri ci ty w i l l g ro w a t a ra te o f 11 . 3 p er cen t
 Small Island Nation
 1190 islands, 200 inhabited, 90 resorts
 Tourism drives 28% of GDP
 Average altitude of 1.5m, highest point 2.3m
 Energy Supply
 No proven oil, natural gas, or coal reserves
 100% imported diesel fuel and biomass
The Maldives
 Vulnerabilities
 Climate Change
 The 2004 Tsunami

The Maldives
 International Climate Policy
 Pledge to produce 100% clean energy in ten years
 Underwater Cabinet Meeting
 Climate Vulnerability Forum
 Energy Strategy
 Efficiency
 Wind
 Solar
 Biomass/ Waste
 Major consuming nations
China will become No 1 soon after 2010
India currently No 5, will become No 3 by 2030
 Heavy dependence on oil imports
China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to grow three times
more than current USA and Japan imports
-> Major impact on world oil supply and prices
 Dependence on fossil fuels
Most energy currently generated from fossil fuels, particularly coal
International Climate Change
Negotiations
 China
 US, India relations
 Per capita equity
 India
 Leading developing nations
 Nuclear technology transfer
 Maldives
 Demanding cuts by developed countries
 Pakistan
 Coal technology transfer (CCS, etc)
Competition
 China and India - competing for equity oil stakes
around the world, driving prices up
 Competition in Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan
Cooperation
 Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines
 Security - Terrorism, secure oil routes
Outlook for the region
 Security / military tensions need to be resolved first before any
real cooperation
 Energy interdependence can help foster warmer ties
 Technology transfer can help reduce emissions
 Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications for energy
supply to Pakistan, India & China
 Major consuming nations - China will soon become No 1 in 2010, India
currently No 5, will become No 3 by 2030;
 Heavy dependence on oil imports: China’s and India’s net oil imports are
expected to grow three times more than what the USA and Japan now import. > Major impact on world oil supply and prices.
 Dependence on fossil fuels: Most energy currently generated from fossil
fuels, particularly coal
Climate change
 China & India are big players in global
climate change policy
 Aligned strategy
 Demanding cuts by developed countries
 Asking for technology transfer (CCS, etc)
 Smaller countries vulnerable to sea level rise
– Bangladesh, Maldives, etc
Competition
 China and India - competing for equity oil stakes
around the world, driving prices up
 Competition in Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan
Cooperation
 Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines
 Security - Terrorism, secure oil routes
Outlook for the region
 Security / military tensions need to be resolved first before any
real cooperation
 Energy interdependence can help foster warmer ties
 Technology transfer can help reduce emissions
 Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications for energy
supply to Pakistan, India & China