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Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Mahmoud Medany The Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate The Agricultural Research Center MALR Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Presentation Outline Climate change: projections and risks Why climate change is such critical issue for agriculture? Circumstances of the agricultural sector in Egypt. Climate change impacts over agricultural sector in Egypt. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Egypt to climate change. Mitigation and adaptation: the critical challenge. National priorities of agricultural sector adaptation plans. Agricultural activities in “Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt” Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Egypt 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 aveage Trend 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 -1.5 1975 The change in Mean-Temperature [°C] from climatological normals of EMA up to 1975 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Khalil et al, 2008 Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture IPCC Fourth Assessment Report For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The frequency of heat waves is projected very likely to increases over most land areas Area affected by drought is projected likely to increases. Likely increase of incidence of extreme events. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands, People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services: A Web-based Geospatial Analysis. Available online at: http://www.wri.org. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Agriculture and Natural Systems The risks associated with agriculture and climate change is a result to the strong complicated relationships between agriculture and climate system, plus the high reliance of agriculture system on the natural resources. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture % Total Emissions GHGs Emissions from Agriculture in Egypt (1990/1991) Enteric fermentation Manure management Agricultural soils Rice cultivation Field burning of agricultural % CH4 Emissions % N2O Emissions residues Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Climate Change Impacts: & Agriculture: I, V & A • Crop production • Water demands • Extreme events. Vulnerability: • Agriculture system characteristics • Water situation • Socioeconomics Adaptation Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Limited resources Impacts of climate change are likely to be the greatest in the developing world Degradation of natural resources Current vulnerability Low income. Food crises Poor access to technologies Low investments in production Political conflicts Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS 17% of GDP. 30% of labor force. 20% of the country's exports. 50% of the Egyptian population live in rural areas. Helps in financing economic and social development. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS Total cropped area: 8 million feddan (3.36 Million ha). Nile river banks and in the Delta [Old Lands]: 80%. 80 49 41 20 18 16 Turkey 8 Tunisia Malta Libya Lebanon Italy Cyprus 0 13 Syria 22 8 Israel 7 Algeria 28 10 Greece 20 24 Spain 28 Morocco 37 40 France 60 Albania Uses > 80% of the total annual water budget. Irrigated area (%) Egypt grows a wide variety of field, vegetable and fruit crops. 98 100 Egypt Reclaimed land in desert areas [New Lands]: 20%. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS 25,000 Egypt World 20,000 kg/ha 15,000 Comparison between the productivity of major groups of field crops in Egypt and the world (source: FAO, 2007) 10,000 5,000 0 Cereals Roots and tubers Pulses Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Change in crop yield [%] Crop Change % 2050s Reference 2100s Rice -11% Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 Maize -19% Eid et al., 1997 -14% -20% Hassanein and Medany, 2007 Soybeans -28% Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 Barley -20% Eid et al., 1997 Cotton +17%* +31%** Eid et al., 1997 * Temperature increased by 2°C ** Temperature increased by 4°C Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Change in crop-water requirements [%] 16 Wheat [W] Maize [S] Tomato [W] Tomato [N] Potato [S] Crop-water requirements change [%] 14 12 Broad Bean [W] Maize [N] Tomato [S] Potato [W] Potato [N] 10 8 6 4 2 0 2025 2050 A1 Source: Attaher and Medany (2008) 2100 2025 2050 2100 B1 Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Change in WUE [%] 20 10 0 WUE change [%] -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Wheat [W] Maize [S] Tomato [W] Tomato [N] Potato [S] -60 Broad Bean [W] Maize [N] Tomato [S] Potato [W] Potato [N] -70 2025 2050 A1 Source: Attaher and Medany (2008) 2100 2025 2050 2100 B1 Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Less sensitive to climate variability [irrigated agriculture system] Sand storms, heat and cold waves. SLR [12-15% of the existing agricultural land in the Delta could be lost] Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Water resources and water demands Critical water resources situation vs. low efficiency irrigation systems & poor irrigation management. Soil and water resources degradation Population increase The size of agriculture-land ownership The role of agriculture in social structure of rural regions in Egypt. The role of agriculture in Egyptian economy, Knowledge level and gaps. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Agriculture is Vulnerable to Climate Change The need for Adaptation plans have a greater importance for agricultural sector than mitigation Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Adaptation plans to climate change become one of the top priorities of sustainable development of agricultural sector in Egypt. Adaptation of agricultural sector should be integrated, sustainable, economic efficient, continues and long term plans. The complicated relationships associated within the agriculture sector components, and between the agriculture sector and the other sectors, amplify the difficulties of adaptation planning. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Barriers and limitations of Adaptation Scientific gaps Policy perceptions under current conditions and pressures. Adaptive capacity Financial support. Institutional framework International pressures Traditional knowledge, local conditions, and imported solutions. Sustainable development Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Relationships between adaptation and mitigation: Greenhouse gas emissions Mitigation Climate change risks Adaptation Human actions Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Adaptation priorities Stress tolerant cultivars, crops and improved crop pattern Changing sowing dates. Improved on-farm irrigation management. Improving drainage systems. Integrated and improved crop-management. Financial and insurance systems. Capacity building and public awareness. Institutional framework. New land. Inception workshop, May 5, 2009 Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES Adaptation needs and gaps for agriculture Current pressures Future risks, opportunities & uncertainties Development priorities, agenda & policies Adaptation strategies and practices integrated into climatesensitive development policies, and plans Adaptation of on -farm water management knowledge dissemination Stresses tolerant varieties Pilot measures implemented and scaled up in support of adaptation mainstreaming and policymaking Crop pattern Scenarios under CC Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt Stresses tolerant varieties 1. Identifying the pilot locations of the study, representing different agriculture systems in Egypt. 2. Collecting historical data of weather conditions, soil and water resources of the locations of the study. 3. Tolerated varieties and crop selection , which differnt treatments of heat, water and salinity stresses. 4. Conducting two seasons' field studies to evaluate the selected varieties. 5. Analyzing the results of crops field-studies. 6. Field-studies by evaluation by DSSAT simulation. Level of Sensitivity • Parameters which are sensitive and very sensitive are (heat, water and salinity stresses). – – Soil: parameters which are related to soil water availability Crops: Phenology parameters, in particular for active vegetative phase, seed filling phase and leaves growth, size of leaves (LAI) Crop pattern scenarios under climate change 1. Identifying the current major crop pattern from historical agricultural statistics. 2. Identify the key parameters and forces driving the annual changes in crop pattern. 3. Study the trend of change in cultivated area by using remote sensing techniques. 4. Prepare the data sets of future climate conditions by using GCM and/ or RCM future climate data sets. 5. Prepare the data sets required to crop simulation model. 6. Conduct simulation experiments. 7. Propose and evaluate a number of crop patterns by using numerical and analytical analysis methods. knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties 1. Identifying the stakeholders groups. 2. Establishment of indicated contacts to stakeholders groups. 3. Establish oriented information packages to different targeted stakeholders groups. 4. Identifying the suitable dissemination channels and means 5. Conducting workshops, training programs and field days. 6. Create a dialogue on what if/so what Web Site: http://www.clac.edu.eg Weather Data: •Normal •Daily data •Climate digital maps •Water requirements •AGR. Application: •Chilling requirements •Heat Units •Math. Models • Climate change Plan of work -The programme will be executed in two seasons along three years. -Two years for field testing starts from summer season 2009. -Third year will be specified for analyzing the field experiments results and final report writing. -Locations cover the three agro climatic zones of Egypt: (Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt) and two soil types: old and new land. Three irrigation levels (2 DI = 60 & 80% of ET, and the control) Winter season.: wheat, faba bean, berseem clover Summer season: Corn, rice, sunflower, peanut. Summer Season 2009 Corn: -Three Locations in old land only: EL-Gemmeiza, Sids, Mallawy Preliminary 9 entries +1 check = 10 Advanced 11entries + 1 check = 12 Total number of trials 6 + DI treatments Rice: - Four location in old land only EL- Gemmeiza, Sakha, Zarzoura, EL-Serw Preliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26 Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12 Total number of trials 8 Sunflower: - Six locations in old and new land EL-Nubaria, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel, New-Valley Preliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26 Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12 Total number of trials 8 + DI treatments Peanut: -Six locations in old and new land Bahteem, EL-Esmailya, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel, New valley Preliminary 15 entries + 1 check = 26 Advanced 5 entries + 1 check = 12 Total number of trials 12 + DI treatments Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture Inception workshop, 26th February 2009