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Transcript
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Mahmoud Medany
The Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate
The Agricultural Research Center
MALR
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Presentation Outline
Climate change: projections and risks
Why climate change is such critical issue for agriculture?
Circumstances of the agricultural sector in Egypt.
Climate change impacts over agricultural sector in Egypt.
The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Egypt to climate change.
Mitigation and adaptation: the critical challenge.
National priorities of agricultural sector adaptation plans.
Agricultural activities in “Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt”
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report
Egypt
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
aveage
Trend
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
-1.5
1975
The change in Mean-Temperature [°C] from
climatological normals of EMA up to 1975
Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from
observations of increases in
global average air and
ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global
mean sea level.
Khalil et al, 2008
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is
projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.
Projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with
large populations.
The frequency of heat waves is projected very likely to increases
over most land areas
Area affected by drought is projected likely to increases.
Likely increase of incidence of extreme events.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands, People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services: A Web-based Geospatial Analysis. Available
online at: http://www.wri.org.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Agriculture and Natural Systems
The risks associated with
agriculture and climate
change is a result to the strong
complicated relationships
between agriculture and
climate system, plus the high
reliance of agriculture system
on the natural resources.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
% Total Emissions
GHGs Emissions from
Agriculture in Egypt
(1990/1991)
 Enteric fermentation
 Manure management
 Agricultural soils
 Rice cultivation
 Field burning of agricultural
% CH4 Emissions
% N2O Emissions
residues
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Climate Change
Impacts:
&
Agriculture:
I, V & A
•
Crop production
•
Water demands
•
Extreme events.
Vulnerability:
• Agriculture system
characteristics
• Water situation
• Socioeconomics
Adaptation
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
 Limited resources
Impacts of climate change are
likely to be the greatest in the
developing world
 Degradation of natural
resources
 Current vulnerability
 Low income.
 Food crises
 Poor access to technologies
 Low investments in production
 Political conflicts
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS
17% of GDP.
30% of labor force.
20% of the country's exports.
50% of the Egyptian population live in rural areas.
 Helps in financing economic and social development.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS
Total cropped area: 8 million
feddan (3.36 Million ha).
 Nile river banks and in the Delta
[Old Lands]: 80%.
80
49
41
20 18
16
Turkey
8
Tunisia
Malta
Libya
Lebanon
Italy
Cyprus
0
13
Syria
22
8
Israel
7
Algeria
28
10
Greece
20
24
Spain
28
Morocco
37
40
France
60
Albania
Uses > 80% of the total annual
water budget.
Irrigated area (%)
Egypt grows a wide variety of
field, vegetable and fruit crops.
98
100
Egypt
Reclaimed land in desert areas
[New Lands]: 20%.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
AGRICULTURE:
NUMBERS & FACTS
25,000
Egypt
World
20,000
kg/ha
15,000
Comparison between the productivity of
major groups of field crops in Egypt and
the world (source: FAO, 2007)
10,000
5,000
0
Cereals
Roots and tubers
Pulses
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Change in crop yield [%]
Crop
Change %
2050s
Reference
2100s
Rice
-11%
Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002
Maize
-19%
Eid et al., 1997
-14%
-20%
Hassanein and Medany, 2007
Soybeans
-28%
Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002
Barley
-20%
Eid et al., 1997
Cotton
+17%*
+31%**
Eid et al., 1997
* Temperature increased by 2°C
** Temperature increased by 4°C
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Change in crop-water requirements [%]
16
Wheat [W]
Maize [S]
Tomato [W]
Tomato [N]
Potato [S]
Crop-water requirements change [%]
14
12
Broad Bean [W]
Maize [N]
Tomato [S]
Potato [W]
Potato [N]
10
8
6
4
2
0
2025
2050
A1
Source: Attaher and Medany (2008)
2100
2025
2050
2100
B1
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Change in WUE [%]
20
10
0
WUE change [%]
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Wheat [W]
Maize [S]
Tomato [W]
Tomato [N]
Potato [S]
-60
Broad Bean [W]
Maize [N]
Tomato [S]
Potato [W]
Potato [N]
-70
2025
2050
A1
Source: Attaher and Medany (2008)
2100
2025
2050
2100
B1
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
 Less sensitive to climate variability [irrigated agriculture system]
 Sand storms, heat and cold waves.
 SLR [12-15% of the existing agricultural land in the Delta could be
lost]
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Water resources and water demands
Critical water resources situation vs. low efficiency
irrigation systems & poor irrigation management.
Soil and water resources degradation
Population increase
The size of agriculture-land ownership
 The role of agriculture in social structure of rural
regions in Egypt.
 The role of agriculture in Egyptian economy,
 Knowledge level and gaps.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Agriculture is Vulnerable to Climate
Change
The need for Adaptation plans have a greater
importance for agricultural sector than mitigation
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Adaptation plans to climate change become one of the top
priorities of sustainable development of agricultural sector in
Egypt.
 Adaptation of agricultural sector should be integrated,
sustainable, economic efficient, continues and long term plans.
The complicated relationships associated within the agriculture
sector components, and between the agriculture sector and the
other sectors, amplify the difficulties of adaptation planning.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Barriers and limitations of Adaptation
Scientific gaps
Policy perceptions under current conditions and pressures.
Adaptive capacity
Financial support.
Institutional framework
International pressures
Traditional knowledge, local conditions, and imported solutions.
Sustainable development
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Relationships between adaptation and mitigation:
Greenhouse gas emissions
Mitigation
Climate change risks
Adaptation
Human actions
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Adaptation priorities
Stress tolerant cultivars, crops and improved crop pattern
Changing sowing dates.
Improved on-farm irrigation management.
Improving drainage systems.
Integrated and improved crop-management.
Financial and insurance systems.
Capacity building and public awareness.
Institutional framework.
New land.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
Adaptation needs and gaps for
agriculture
Current
pressures
Future risks,
opportunities
&
uncertainties
Development
priorities,
agenda &
policies
Adaptation
strategies
and practices
integrated
into climatesensitive
development
policies, and
plans
Adaptation of on -farm water
management
knowledge
dissemination
Stresses tolerant
varieties
Pilot measures
implemented and
scaled up in
support of
adaptation
mainstreaming
and policymaking
Crop pattern
Scenarios under CC
Climate
Change Risk
Management
in Egypt
Stresses tolerant varieties
1. Identifying the pilot locations of the study,
representing different agriculture systems in Egypt.
2. Collecting historical data of weather conditions, soil
and water resources of the locations of the study.
3. Tolerated varieties and crop selection , which differnt
treatments of heat, water and salinity stresses.
4. Conducting two seasons' field studies to evaluate the
selected varieties.
5. Analyzing the results of crops field-studies.
6. Field-studies by evaluation by DSSAT simulation.
Level of Sensitivity
•
Parameters which are sensitive and very
sensitive are (heat, water and salinity
stresses).
–
–
Soil: parameters which are related to soil water
availability
Crops: Phenology parameters, in particular for
active vegetative phase, seed filling phase and
leaves growth, size of leaves (LAI)
Crop pattern scenarios under climate change
1. Identifying the current major crop pattern
from historical agricultural statistics.
2. Identify the key parameters and forces driving
the annual changes in crop pattern.
3. Study the trend of change in cultivated area by
using remote sensing techniques.
4. Prepare the data sets of future climate
conditions by using GCM and/ or RCM future
climate data sets.
5. Prepare the data sets required to crop
simulation model.
6. Conduct simulation experiments.
7. Propose and evaluate a number of crop
patterns by using numerical and analytical
analysis methods.
knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses
tolerant varieties
1. Identifying the stakeholders groups.
2. Establishment of indicated contacts
to stakeholders groups.
3. Establish oriented information
packages to different targeted
stakeholders groups.
4. Identifying the suitable
dissemination channels and means
5. Conducting workshops, training
programs and field days.
6. Create a dialogue on what if/so
what
Web Site: http://www.clac.edu.eg
Weather Data:
•Normal
•Daily data
•Climate digital maps
•Water requirements
•AGR. Application:
•Chilling
requirements
•Heat Units
•Math. Models
• Climate change
Plan of work
-The programme will be executed in two seasons along three years.
-Two years for field testing starts from summer season 2009.
-Third year will be specified for analyzing the field experiments
results and final report writing.
-Locations cover the three agro climatic zones of Egypt:
(Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt)
and two soil types: old and new land.
Three irrigation levels (2 DI = 60 & 80% of ET, and the control)
Winter season.: wheat, faba bean, berseem clover
Summer season: Corn, rice, sunflower, peanut.
Summer Season 2009
Corn:
-Three Locations in old land only:
EL-Gemmeiza, Sids, Mallawy
Preliminary 9 entries +1 check = 10
Advanced 11entries + 1 check = 12
Total number of trials 6
+ DI treatments
Rice:
- Four location in old land only
EL- Gemmeiza, Sakha, Zarzoura, EL-Serw
Preliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26
Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12
Total number of trials 8
Sunflower:
- Six locations in old and new land
EL-Nubaria, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel, New-Valley
Preliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26
Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12
Total number of trials 8
+ DI treatments
Peanut:
-Six locations in old and new land
Bahteem, EL-Esmailya, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel,
New valley
Preliminary 15 entries + 1 check = 26
Advanced
5 entries + 1 check = 12
Total number of trials 12
+ DI treatments
Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture
Inception workshop, 26th February 2009