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ENSEMBLES
Progress and Plans
Prepared by Chris Hewitt, Project Director
Project Office can be contacted on [email protected]
Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org
Motivation
Predictions of natural climate variability on seasonal to
centennial timescales, and the human impact on climate are
inherently probabilistic due to uncertainties in:
 initial conditions
 representation of key processes within models
 climatic forcing factors
Reliable forecasts and estimates of climatic risk can only be
made through ensemble integrations of Earth-System Models
in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated.
The ENSEMBLES project will provide these probabilistic
estimates.
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ENSO predictions in seasonal forecasting
Multi-model seasonal (MAM) predictions for Niño3.4 SSTs
courtesy
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
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Current Status of Climate Change Prediction
We can produce a small number of different predictions with little idea of
how reliable they might be.
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Probabilistic approach
From Murphy et al, Nature 2004
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End-to-end methodology
non-linear transformation
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PDF of meteorological variables
courtesy
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
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End-user PDF (eg crop yield)
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The ENSEMBLES Project
 5-year Integrated Project supported by EC FP6 funding
1 September 2004 – 31 August 2009
 67 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US
we welcome requests from new groups to participate on an unfunded
basis – currently 11 such groups worldwide affiliated to the project
 Builds upon FP5 projects
e.g. DEMETER, MICE, PRUDENCE, STARDEX, PRISM, ATEAM
 Work carried out in 10 Research Themes (RTs)
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ENSEMBLES Strategic Objectives
1. Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global and
regional Earth System models, validated against quality
controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to
produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate
of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and
longer timescales
2. Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of
physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in
the Earth System
3. Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of
applications, including agriculture, health, food security,
energy, water resources
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ENSEMBLES Research Themes
RT1 Co-leaders: James Murphy, Tim Palmer
 To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on
global Earth System Models.
RT2A Jean-Francois Royer, Erich Roeckner
 To produce sets of multi-model climate simulations.
RT3 Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen
 To provide improved regional models.
RT2B Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob
 To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and
seasonal to decadal hindcasts.
RT4 Julia Slingo, Jean-Louis Dufresne
 To advance the understanding of the basic science.
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ENSEMBLES Research Themes (continued)
RT5 Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank
 To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation
.
RT6 Andy Morse, Colin Prentice
 To develop risk based estimates of impacts.
RT7 Richard Tol, Roberto Roson
 To provide scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use
changes and adaptive capacity.
RT8 Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous
 Represents the interface with a wider audience that includes
scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.
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ENSEMBLES Management Structure
The Project Office:
ENSEMBLES
Co-ordinator
Dave
Griggs
ENSEMBLES
Director
Chris
Hewitt
ENSEMBLES
Secretary
Pip
Gilbert
Assisted by:
ENSEMBLES EC
Project Officer
Met Office EU
Manager
ENSEMBLES
Management Board
RT Steering Groups
All participants
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Georgios Amanatidis
Adrian Broad
2 RT co-ordinators
per RT
Work Package
leaders
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Progress: seasonal to decadal
Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems
to estimate model uncertainty:
 Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF
built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER
experience
 Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal
prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office
 Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system
developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF
Design of a set of common experiments to determine
the benefits of each approach
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Progress: anthropogenic climate change
 New set of GCM ACC simulations (for IPCC 4AR)
Conducted historical runs (1860-2000)
and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1)
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Progress (continued)
 Defined RCM domain, ERA40 (1961-2000) runs underway
 Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …)
 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios
 Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/
further developed as integrated diagnostic tool
 Producing daily high-resolution gridded datasets for evaluation
OLD (ECA daily dataset)
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NEW
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0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)
Progress (continued)
 Scientific papers published or in prep.
 Published overview articles, newsletters, brochures
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http://www.ensembles-eu.org
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Plans for 2006-2007
 Finish “Stream 1” simulations using existing models:




s2d hindcasts 1991-2001
1860-2000 historical simulations
21st Century scenarios (A1B, A2, B1)
RCM ERA40@50km 1961-2000 (first multi-model RCM system)
 Start “Stream 2” simulations:




s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards
1860-2000 simulations using updated models
21st Century scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, ENS1) using updated models
RCM ERA40@25km 1961-2000
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Plans for 2006-2007 (continued)
 Develop databases
 S2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database
 RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database
 GCM @ MPIMET building on IPCC WCDC activities
 Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy)
 Testing the sensitivity of emissions scenarios to climate change
 Develop new emissions scenario (ENS1) for Stream 2 simulations
 Develop statistical downscaling tools
 Improved estimates for changes in extreme events
 Workshops (Climatic change and impacts in Eastern Europe, Romania 13-15 Sep; Adaptation to the
impacts of climate change in the European Alps, Switzerland 4-6 Oct; Extreme climatic events and
Impacts, Switzerland 2007; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX, Estonia 2007)
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Concluding remark
ENSEMBLES brings together largely separate
communities and integrates world-leading
European research on the Earth system:
s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers,
regional modellers (dynamical and statistical
downscaling), climate and chemistry, scientific
understanding, evaluation with observations, application
modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario
developers, training programmes
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Questions
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