Download UNIVERSITY OF NORTH FLORIDA

Osprey Financial Group
Coggin College of Business
University of North Florida
4567 St. John’s Bluff Road, South
Jacksonville, FL 32224-2675
904.620.1676
www.unf.edu/ccb/ofg
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH FLORIDA
Fourth Quarter Report
December 31, 2006
Report Highlights
This is the fifth Fourth Quarter Report of the Osprey Financial Group.
The Fund was launched on October 11, 2002 as a result of a gift from
Jody and Layton Smith, long-time friends of the University of North
Florida and the Coggin College of Business.
During the quarter, the Fund grew from $734,931.90 to $769,278.71,
representing a return of 4.67%. Net of management fees, the value of
the Fund increased by $32,968.52 or 4.48%.
The Fund outperformed the benchmark by 0.36% before management
fees and 0.17% after fees.
The Equity component of the Fund earned 5.90% and outperformed the
benchmark by 0.49%.
The Fixed Income component of the Fund underperformed the benchmark by 0.38%.
The fund placed in the 3rd quintile (#212) among a sample of 402 professionally managed funds with similar portfolio allocation parameters.
The average fund earned a return of 4.77%.
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Economic Review
United States
The largest economy in the world proved to be resilient in the fourth
quarter of 2006 (Q4). The growth rate in the economy, along with concerns about inflation, were the topics on the minds of most. After 17
consecutive rate hikes, the Federal Reserve (Fed) had to confront these
issues every 6 weeks to decide if the pace of growth was too much or
inflationary pressures were too strong. The Fed decided to leave the
Federal Funds rate at 5.25%, while keeping a hawkish position on inflation. While markets hit all time highs, energy prices, core inflation, the
housing market, the inverted yield curve, and a new Congress controlled by Democrats, made the outlook for continued gains in the market nebulous.
Advisors
John P. McAllister
Dean, Coggin College of Business
George S. Prattos
Advisor, Morgan Stanley
Bradley B. Ridinger
Advisor, Morgan Stanley
Reinhold P. Lamb
Faculty Advisor
From an inflationary standpoint, Q4 started with core inflation at a decade high of 2.9% of year over year in September and core PCE
(Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) holding steady at 2.4%
year over year; both well out of the Feds comfort zone of 1%-2%.
These numbers would improve slightly as the quarter closed at 2.6%
and 2.2% respectively. The biggest question remaining was employment. The data showed unemployment at a 5-year low of 4.4% in October. While this level may be appealing to some, it is out of the inflationneutral zone of 5%; as wages are the biggest expense to employers. The
unemployment rate would close the quarter at 4.5%, showing an exceptionally strong labor market.
From a growth standpoint, Q4 would show much more strength than Q3
(a weak 2.0% GDP). Lower energy costs improved the trade deficit and
helped boost personal spending 4.4% to offset some remaining weaknesses in the housing market that impaired Q3 GDP. Along with an increase in government spending, Q4 GDP came in at a much stronger
3.5%.
Combing through the mass of data, presented conflicting views about
the direction of the economy. The quarter closed with the S&P 500 Index at 1,418 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 12,463, a
gain of over 6.5% for both in the 3-month period. Similar questions remain going into 2007 regarding growth, inflation and future direction of
interest rates. For 2007, expect economic growth to moderate and infla-
tion to come down into the Feds comfort zone as unemployment rises to
neutral levels.
Osprey Financial Group, 2006-2007
Keith Amirault
Sector Analyst for Energy, Material and Utilities;
Technical Analyst
Russell Anderson
Sector Analyst for Financials, Fixed Income Analyst;
Economist for North America
Shannon Coles
Sector Analyst for Consumer Staples and Healthcare;
Economist for Asia
George Cook
Sector Analyst for Information Technology and Telecommunications;
Website and Blackboard Coordinator
Source: Briefing.com
Europe
In Q4, economic activity in the Euro area has somewhat decelerated
from the very buoyant pace registered in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, growth prospects remained robust. Growth was being driven
primarily by domestic demand, suggesting that the expansion has become self-sustained. The recovery in consumption was firmly established, as a strengthening labor market and improving consumer confidence formed a base for household spending. Investment spending continued to perform strongly and business confidence indicators remained
upbeat, suggesting a healthy corporate sector.
Benjamin Franklin
Sector Analyst for Consumer Discretionary and Industrials;
Chief Administrator; Special Projects Coordinator
Ross Fredenhagen
Sector Analyst for Information Technology and Telecommunications;
Statistician
Tanya Johnson-Coomes
Sector Analyst for Consumer Staples and Healthcare;
Operations Manager
Mariya Nykyforovych
Sector Analyst for Energy, Material and Utilities;
Economist for Europe
Latin America
This region continued to expand due to high commodity prices as a result of the growing global economy. The political environment throughout Latin America moved toward the left, with populist candidates
elected in Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. On the other
hand, Peru, Mexico, Chile and Colombia saw free market presidents
take office. Despite political uncertainty, Latin American markets performed above average due in part to rigorous monetary and fiscal policies. Seven of the major countries’ stock indices enjoyed an above average return of 23.4%. Mexico’s stock market rose 22.3% to an all-time
Robert Waterman
Sector Analyst for Financials, Fixed Income Analyst;
Economist for North America
Stephen Whitley
Sector Analyst for Consumer Discretionary and Industrials;
Economist for Latin America
margin pressure formed a basis for our underweight exposure in the
sector. Money was invested into sector ETF, XLU, and remained there
for the rest of the quarter
Portfolio Holdings
Beginning Value, September 31, 2006
Ending Value, December 31, 2006
Change in Value, Fourth Quarter 2006
Management Expenses
Net Change in Value, Fourth Quarter 2006
$734,931.86
769,278.71
34,346.95
1,378.43
32,968.52
Fund Composition, December 31, 2006
Shares
Equity Positions
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP
250
CERADYNE INC-CALIF CRDN
250
MSCI SWEDEN INDEX FD EWD
520
S&P 500 INDEX FUND
120
MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND EFA
730
DJ US TELECOMM INDEX IYZ
520
DJ U S TECHNOLOGY INDEX IYW
1,280
DJ US HEALTHCARE INDEX IYH
380
GOLDEN DRAGON CHINA FUND PGJ 1,350
SPDR CONSUMER STAPLES XLP
1,650
SPDR CONS. DISCRETIONARY XLY 1,240
SPDR ENERGY XLE
855
SPDR FINANCIAL XLF
2,270
SPDR INDUSTRIAL XLI
1,540
SPDR UTILITIES XLU
440
Total Equity
Fixed Income Positions
LEHMAN AGGREGATE BOND AGG
300
7-10 YR TREASURY BOND IEF
1,695
NUVEEN PFD & CONV INC JQC
3,190
Total Fixed Income
Cash
Total Fund Value
$Price
60.67
56.50
32.28
142.00
73.22
29.65
54.45
66.41
20.98
26.12
38.42
58.63
36.74
35.01
36.72
high, while Brazil’s stock market expanded 15.8%. Mexico experienced
an average inflationary period, which allowed their Central Bank to
maintain steady interest rates, thus promoting expansion. Brazil experienced GDP growth of 3.1% which led investors to anticipate future rate
cuts and caused increased demand for equities. Consequently, these
currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar, sparking concern of
possible future inflation. Argentina’s index ended the year on a positive
trend with a 22.8% return for Q4, due to increased demand for corn and
soybean. Chile’s, Colombia’s and Peru’s indices finished with returns
of 30.2%, 19.9% and 24.7% respectively, due primarily to sharp increases in the price of copper and other metals.
Asia
$Value
15,167.50
14,125.00
16,785.60
17,040.00
53,450.60
15,418.00
69,696.00
25,235.80
28,323.00
43,098.00
47,640.80
50,128.65
83,399.80
53,915.40
16,156.80
549,580.95
The Asian economy sustained its seemingly unstoppable trend upward
during Q4 with many indices in China, Hong Kong, and Australia
reaching all time highs. Growth in Asia remains positive with markets
developing in large population centers of China and India. Japan continued to struggle on two different fronts: the business and investment side
boomed, while consumers suffered with low wages and consumer
spending. This led the country to keep interest rates unchanged while
the central bank and government monitor the economic data closely.
Thailand continued its economic downturn as the military-implemented
government restricted investments in the country from overseas, consequently scaring away investors.
Market Overview
Equity Markets
99.70
82.41
14.11
29,910.00
139,684.95
45,010.90
214,605.85
5,091.91
769,278.71
OSPREY FINANCIAL GROUP was established in 2002 and is comprised of
undergraduate and graduate students selected to invest a portion of the Foundation’s assets in a diversified, actively managed portfolio of equity and fixed
income securities. The initial principal ($500,000) is from a gift from Jody and
Layton Smith.
The equity markets started Q4 on a strong note, achieving new technical levels, and breaking free from the summer’s volatile trading range.
In October the DJIA, S&P 500 Index, led the NASDAQ to new highs,
and the DJIA successfully rallied above and held the all important
12,000 level. It is hard to quantify what effect psychological resistance
had on the market, except to state that once broken it became a strong
level of support for the overall market. In addition to the obvious technical factors that drove the equity markets, several key fundamental
factors also contributed to the overall strength witnessed during Q4.
First and foremost, a stable interest rate environment had been achieved
by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. As market participants became more comfortable with his style, the uncertainty sur-
rounding the first new Chairman in nearly 20 years dissipated. Consequently, the long term outlook stabilized and funds flowed back into the
market. The reinvigorated institutional money flow can be attributed to
the end of the “bull run” in the energy sector. Specifically, the massive
amount of capital placed in the energy market migrated to the next market poised to move. The equity markets were an attractive option as
they spent the previous few months consolidating. With S&P500 earnings on the rise, investors found the fundamental justification needed to
invest into equities. Furthermore, the Asian region continued to show
signs of strong economic growth and created investor interest in the
stocks that could benefit from the growth in India and China.
ertheless, OFG believes there are pockets of weakness to consider, including automotive, residential construction, light construction machinery and farming equipment.
Information Technology
For the IT sector, the portfolio held two ETFs (IYW, IGV) for most of
the quarter. The fund sold IGV on 12/13/2006 and bought additional
shares of IYW as a hedge against any adverse market moves during the
winter break. The IT sector performance lagged the equity portion of
the bench throughout Q4. The fund’s IT sector holding period return
was up 0.52%, while the equity portion of the bench was up 6.4% for
the period.
Fixed Income Markets
OFG faced two major issues in Q4 as it entered the fixed income markets: the likelihood of a recession and the rare occurrence of an inverted yield curve, which was increasing in its depth of inversion. The
recession issue has yet to be resolved, but it has triggered a belief that
based on a weakening economy, the FOMC would likely reduce the
Federal Funds rates to forestall a recession. Consequently, as the period
started, we saw the benchmark 10 year Treasury at a yield of 4.75%,
falling to 4.30% at the beginning of December 2006, on the anticipation
of rate decreases. However, as economic data began to show strength
and a reduction in inflationary pressures, the likelihood of a Federal
Funds rate decrease diminished, and yields began to rise to 4.71% by
the end of the quarter/year. Throughout this period, the FOMC kept
rates at 5.25% and the yield curve remained inverted. The depth of the
inversion during the quarter was pointing to a 30%-40% chance of recession. That depth , as measured by the spread between 2 year and 10
year yields, deepened throughout the quarter until the later part of December 2006. As economic data began to point to a soft landing, and
China began to diversify their U.S. debt holdings, yields moved higher
and the curve quickly reverted back to the shape it had in October 2006,
albeit still inverted.
Materials
Portfolio Composition
In planning our investment strategy, OFG had to take in to account the
fact that the Utilities sector performance depends on a number of factors, including interest rates, commodity prices, and rising costs. But
there are two factors that have the greatest impact on utilities: interest
rates and the weather. Like most industries, producers and distributors
faced rising cost pressures. Though fourth quarter fundamentals remained strong, cost headwinds remained a challenge for the sector. As
a result, rising interest rates, warm winter forecasts and possible profit
Asset Allocations
At the start of the quarter, OFG believed that the allocations of 30%
Fixed Income, 60% U.S. Equity and 10% International were appropriate for the current world market conditions. At the close of Q4 the continuation of the inversion of the yield curve and the depressed bond
In Q4, the materials sector followed the overall market higher, led by
impressive economic growth in the Asian region and the steadily increasing demand for raw materials. Furthermore, the innovation by
carbon fiber and various composite companies led to an increase in demand to help those companies benefit from the increased usage of their
products in various industrial goods. A position in Ceradyne CRDN
was entered to take advantage of this sector.
Telecommunications
The Telecom sector continued to perform well from October through
December of 2006 as it had done in the previous three quarters of the
year. The U.S. Telecommunications Index rose 9.2% in Q4 compared
to the S&P 500 Index’s increase of 6.2%. OFG had market weight exposure to the sector through the Telecom ETF (IYZ) through most of
the quarter. One position in Latin American wireless carrier NII Holdings (NIHD) was briefly entered. The downturn of the oil market affected NIHD due to its reliance on various emerging economies and the
funds’ Telecom exposure was shifted back to IYZ.
Utilities
factors gave investors a clear sign that the buyers were exhausted, and
led to an influx of selling pressure. The hurricane season ended without
any disruption of the gulf coast production or refining. When compared
to the prior year, this helped the supply-side of the market breathe a
sigh of relief. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon ended as a
stalemate, and eased some of the geopolitical tensions that had been
priced into the market during the conflict. Furthermore, the reduction
in overall supply caused by the Prudhoe Bay pipeline shutdown was
unable to push the market to new highs, a clear sign of exhaustion on
the part of buyers. Throughout these events capital flowed out of the
sector into other sectors. Positions in XLE and PBW, a clean energy
ETF, were utilized to reduce the funds sector sensitivity to the price of
oil.
market, forced OFG to slightly underweight Fixed Income to 28%. To
offset this move, international exposure was overweighed by 2%. OFG
believed that international equities, anchored by a strong European
economy, continued stability in Latin America and continued growth in
China would provide enhanced returns.
Asset Allocation
December 31, 2006
100%
50%
0%
Financials
The financial sector is very sensitive about interest rate movements and
most other macroeconomic data. Given the economic uncertainties going into Q4, the exposure to this sector was initially at market-weight.
As reports continued to show a stable or strong economy, and as interest rates remained level, exposure to this sector was increased. Positions
included Berkley (BER), American Express (AXP) and the sector ETF,
XLF.
Healthcare
News headlines spurred volatility in much of this sector, with the sector
ETF, IYH, underperforming the S&P 500 Index by almost 5%. After
the Democrats won the Congressional majority in the November elections, both major pharmaceutical and managed health companies
dropped as the future of reimbursement rates from the Medicare program was now in question. But the Democrats did bring in a favorable
political environment for alternative fuel. OFG seized this opportunity
and invested in Syngenta (SYT) a biotechnology company, which specialized genetically modified corn and soybean seeds. This strategy resulted in a return of 7.55%.
Fixed Income
US Equity
OFG
International
Bench
Market Capitalization
The equity portion of the fund attempted to invest in companies that
showed the greatest potential for price appreciation while minimizing
the risk of loss. To accomplish this goal, the Fund invested in large and
mid-size companies, although most of the equity funds were invested in
ETFs during this time.
OFG Market Capitalization
25%
38%
37%
Industrials
While order patterns have moderated, the trajectory of growth for the
Industrial sector remains positive. Our sector tracking ETF, XLI, underperformed the S&P 500 Index by .10%.However, this was offset by a
3.39% holding period return of Armor Holding (AH) for most of November and December. Overall, the sector’s fundamentals remain solid,
buoyed in part by high levels in Department of Defense spending. Nev-
Small
Mid
Large
Sector Allocations
The sector with the most exposure was Financials, which was near the
S&P 500 Index weight of 21.7%. With conflicting news entering the
market, the most of the fund’s sector allocations were set to market
weight, except for Healthcare and Utilities which were underweighted.
4.95%. OFG underperformed the benchmark by 4.15%. Below is a
summary of returns for each international position during the quarter.
Ticker
Return
Overall Portfolio
EFA
2.6%
During Q4, the value of the Fund grew 4.67%, outperforming a
weighted benchmark comprised of the S&P 500 Index (60%), the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index (10%), and the Lehman Brothers Aggregate
Bond Index (30%) by 0.35%. Initial portfolio positions were entered on
October 11, marking the beginning of the 2006/07 OFG foray into the
market with a starting portfolio value of $734,931.90. At the end of
the quarter, the portfolio value had risen to $769,278.71. After management fees, the value of the Fund increased by $32,968.52 or 4.48%, and
outperformed the benchmark by 0.17%.
EWD
9.34%
EWP
5.5%
EWW
-3.34%
EWZ
-1.3%
ILF
1.86%
PGJ
30.38%
Portfolio Performance
Q4 OFG Performance vs. Bench
Sector Analysis
Consumer Discretionary
775,000.00
770,000.00
765,000.00
760,000.00
755,000.00
750,000.00
745,000.00
740,000.00
735,000.00
730,000.00
OFG
10
.11
10 .0 6
.18
10 .0 6
.25
11 .0 6
.01
11 .0 6
.08
11 .0 7
.16
11 .0 6
.24
12 .0 6
.01
12 .0 6
.08
12 .0 6
.18
12 .0 6
.26
.0
6
Bench
The Consumer Discretionary Index earned 9.8% in Q4 and outperformed the S&P 500 Index. GameStop Corp. (GME), a video game
retailer was OFG’s only Consumer Discretionary holding during the
quarter. Two new gaming consoles (Playstation 3 and Nintendo’s Wii)
were released in December with strong forecasted sales. GME was in
an ideal position as the largest video game retailer, and it was bought
and sold in a little over a month for a 4.1% return. At quarter-end, OFG
maintained the sector at market weight.
Consumer Staples
Monthly Performance Comparison
Decomposing the Q4 performance into monthly returns indicates that
the Fund outperformed the benchmark every month during the quarter:
+0.14% in October, +0.20% in November, and +0.02% in December.
For the quarter, the Fund outperformed the benchmark by 0.36% before
management fees and 0.17% after fees.
The Consumer Staples sector underperformed the S&P 500 Index,
which reinforced OFG’s decision to keep exposure to this sector at an
underweight position. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
(XLP) was the only holding and it underperformed the S&P 500 Index
by 2.74%. Since this sector is defensive, OFG was ready to enter the
sector quickly if the economy started into a severe downtrend. This
strategy is still in place as the Fund moves forward.
Energy
As the summer of 2006 drew to a close, the multi year bull rally in energy started to show its first signs of weakness. A few key fundamental
nent was 1.39%, while the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index had a return
1.77% during that same time.
Monthly Performance of OFG vs. Benchmark: Q4
OFG Fixed Income vs. LBABI Benchmark
5.0%
3.50%
4.0%
3.00%
2.50%
3.0%
Cumulative Return
2.00%
2.0%
1.50%
LBABI
Fixed Income
1.0%
1.00%
0.0%
0.50%
October
0.00%
10.11.06
10.19.06
10.27.06
11.06.06
11.15.06
11.24.06
12.04.06
12.12.06
12.21.06
November
OFG
December
4th Quarter
Benchmark
-0.50%
-1.00%
Date
Portfolio Analysis
Performance of the International Component
For the past few years mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that
hold foreign stocks have consistently outperformed their domestic
counterparts. OFG overweighed international holdings in order to earn
additional returns offered by foreign markets as well as to diversify our
holdings and to lower the risk. To achieve these goals, OFG invested
both in emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets were represented by ETF’s of China (PGJ), Brazil (EWZ), Mexico (EWW) and
iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF). The European holdings
(Swedish and Spanish ETF’s) covered developed markets. The Fund
also held positions in EFA, which tracks the international benchmark
(MSCI EAFE).
The economies that are represented in the benchmark had very positive
gains, and OFG tried to identify the regions within those economies that
performed the strongest. Though China exceeded our expectations, terrorist attacks in Spain and an EU threat of legal action produced disappointing results. The Fund held three positions in Latin America that
produced disappointing results due to a lot of oil price sensitivity.
Although the international component underperformed EAFE, it still
outperformed the S&P500 Index. The EAFE produced a return of 9.1%
for the quarter, while the International return of OFG’s positions was
Initially each of the three portfolio components, Fixed Income, International, and U.S. Equity, were set at market weight to the bench, (30%,
60%, 10%, respectively) as were the sector allocations across the
S&P500 inside the U.S. Equity portion. The first major shift in component weightings occurred on November 7 in order to mitigate perceived
risks in the U.S. bond market. In response, the Fixed Income component was underweighted to 25% of the total fund value, shifting domestic equities to 5% overweight exposure. As the Fund went into a passive management mode for the Winter Break, the Fixed Income component was moved back to market weight. This was mainly due to concerns about a possible correction in U.S. equities markets after a strong
Q4 run-up. Sector allocations in the U.S. Equity component remainedat
initial market weights by and large throughout Q4. However, the Democrats political victories in November lowered OFG’s outlook for the
healthcare sector which was underweighted shortly after the elections.
Performance of the Equity Component
The dominant strategy for managing the Equity component of the Fund
involved a continuous rebalancing of the ten sectors comprising the
S&P 500 Index and the portion devoted to the international market according to the latest news concerning domestic and international economies. The selection of equities for the portfolio was done using fundamental and technical analysis with an emphasis on a top-down and mo-
mentum based strategy. With no rate cut apparent in the near future,
the portfolio was rebalanced with greater emphasis on equities. The
Equity portion of the Fund earned 5.90% for Q4 and outperformed the
benchmark by 0.49%, as shown by the chart below. The weighted average of the Morgan Stanley EAFE and the S&P 500 Index returned
5.41% by comparison. The performance for the quarter was due to exceptional returns from one of the international positions (PGJ) of the
portfolio, along with solid returns from the Industrials sector.
Analysis of Returns and Risk
As shown in the chart below, the Equity portion of the Fund tracked the
performance of the bench very closely during the quarter, showing a
strong positive correlation (+0.91). There were points where the performance of the Fund lagged or exceeded the performance of the Equity
portion of the bench, but this did not adversely affect the variance of the
returns as the Equity portion posted a daily average standard deviation
of 0.37% versus 0.44% for the Equity portion of the bench.
2006 Quarterly Cum ulative Perform ance
6.00%
5.80%
5.60%
5.40%
5.20%
5.00%
Oct - Dec 2006
OFG Equity
Equity Bench
2006 Q4 Daily Price Changes
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
-1.00%
-1.50%
10/11/06
11/01/06
OFG Equity
11/24/06
12/18/06
OFG Equity Bench
Performance of the Fixed Income Component
During Q4, the fixed income portfolio consisted of two ETFs, Nuveen
Preferred Convertible Income Fund (JQC) and iShares Lehman 7-10
Year Treasury (IEF). Most (80%) of the Fixed Income portfolio was in
IEF. Overall performance was measured against the Lehman Brothers
Aggregate Bond Index (LBABI) as the benchmark. Both IEF and JQC
demonstrated higher volatility when compared to LBABI. Due to the
overall drop in Treasury yields and the appreciation of JQC’s preferred
and convertible assets, the Fund saw positive performance through the
beginning of November and weighted Fixed Income at 30% of the overall portfolio value. However, there were signs of a correction in the
bond market in early November, and in order to protect the overall
value of the Fund, OFG dropped the weight of Fixed Income to 25% on
November 7, 2006. After reallocation, the fixed income component
performed very well and was 43 basis points above the bench by December 11. This was short lived, however, as yields moved higher on
stronger economic news and diversification by China away from U.S.
debt and to European debt.
As of December 19, when the Fund moved into a more passive mode,
OFG’s Fixed Income was 22 basis points above the benchmark. From
December 19 to December 29, higher yields continued and the performance dropped below the LBABI benchmark by 38 basis points. From
October 10 to December 29, JQC had a return of 7.75% and IEF had a
return of 1.32%. The overall performance of the Fixed Income compo-