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“While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free
to choose the consequences of our actions. “
Stephen R. Covey (1932- )
What is “Risk”?
Risk has two components:
1. The probability of
something bad
happening
and
2. The negative
consequences
that result if it
does happen
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Aquaculture Risks Can Be Viewed in
Various Ways
 Risks to financial and
economic well being
 Risks to human health
 Risks to social well being
 Risks to the physical
environment
 Risks to the biological
environment (Biodiversity)
 Insurable vs. uninsurable risks
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Risks of Failure Due to
Management Factors
 Lack of appropriate expertise/experience
 Lack of adequate government over sight
 Poor planning (macro and micro level)
 Inadequate market research
 Bad operational decisions
 Inadequate financial backing/resources
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Risks of Failure Due to
Market Factors
 Currency fluctuations affecting
international markets
 New competitors
 Unpredicted changes in consumer
preferences
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Risks to Assets
 Destruction or loss of infrastructure &/or stock due to
natural and man-made disasters and “Acts of God”
 toxic algal blooms
 epizootic disease outbreaks
 chronic disease losses
 vandalism & theft
 power failure
 predation
 unusual weather events
 war
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Risks to Human Health
 Public health risks may be due to:
 pathogens and contaminants in live fish and their
products (e.g. bioaccumulation of heavy metals,
organophosphates, etc. from feeding trash fish, parasitic
infections such as anisakid nematodes, and larval
trematodes, algal toxins , etc.)
 post-harvest changes (spoilage bacteria, histamines)
 contamination of drinking water (by antibiotics,
chemicals, feeds used in aquaculture)
 breeding of resistant strains of bacteria (via misuse of
antibiotics, e.g. chloramphenicol)
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Risks to Human Health
 Occupational risks:
 risk of physical injuries (cuts, diving accidents, boating
accidents, electrical shocks, etc.)
 chemical poisoning (breathing, skin contact,
consumption of caustic chemicals, poisons)
 bites and stings
 post-harvest infections (bacterial infections - e.g. from
handling tilapias)
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Risks to the Physical
Environment
 risk of environmental degradation (by nets, garbage,
siltation, other forms of pollution, escapees)
 risk of decreased esthetics or quality of life (“not in my
backyard” syndrome - frequent in developed countries
where aquaculture and residential areas are in close
proximity)
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Risks to the Biological
Environment (Biodiversity)
 Unintentional introduction of pests and “fellow
travelers” (tilapia fry in milkfish shipments, many other
examples)
 Intentional introduction of species that become invasive
(Invasive aquatic species, IAS) (golden apple snail)
 risk of potential genetic impacts on native stocks due to
use of new species or strains
 risk of potential ecological impacts on local ecosystems
 risk of potential pathogen introductions
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Risks to the Biological
Environment
 Risk of bio-magnification of parasites and diseases
of native species (e.g. of sealice in British
Columbia)
 Risks due to breeding of resistant strains of bacteria
that impact aquaculture success (e.g. vibrios in
Asian prawn hatcheries)
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Pathogen Risks Associated with
Introductions and Transfers
 Introduction of exotic pathogens
 many highly pathogenic and untreatable viruses
 species that are non-pathogenic in the normal host
may be highly pathogenic in new hosts
 transboundary aquatic animal diseases (TAADs) many examples.
 Introduction of new strains of existing pathogens
(bacteria and viruses)
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Ecological Risks Associated with
Introductions and Transfers
 Competition (food, breeding, habitat) (e.g. in Asian
catfishes)
 Predation (Nile perch, rainbow trout, other
carnivorous species)
 Habitat destruction/alternation (janitor fish in
Philippines and Malaysia, zebra mussel in the Great
Lakes)
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Aquaculture’s 7 Risk Analysis Sectors
Food Safety/Human Health Risk Analysis

Microbiological risks in food
Ecological Risk Analysis (ERA)

Genetic Risk Analysis
Genetic Risks in aquaculture
o From new species & strains
o From GMOs, triploids, etc.

Sustainable
Pathogen Risk Analysis (PRA)
 Pathogen risks posed by
international & domestic
movements, including on-farm
Aquaculture
Ecological impacts of introduced &
transferred species (pests & Invasives)
Examples:
o Transmission of disease organisms
o Biological interaction of escapes with
wild populations including predation,
competition, genetic impacts, etc.
o Physical interactions with aquatic life
o Physical impacts on aquatic
ecosystems
Development
Environmental Risk Analysis
(ERA)

Financial Risk Analysis


Business risks in aquaculture
Costs to society of pathogens,
pests, invasives
Social Risk Analysis


Risks to aquaculture from
society
Risks to society from
aquaculture
Risks to the physical & biological
environment in which aquaculture
takes place
Examples:
o Organic and chemical pollution
o habitat change & loss
o impacts on wild populations
o secondary impacts on other
production systems
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Pathogen Risk Analysis
 Also termed Import Risk Analysis (IRA)
 IRA is a highly structured process that is carried out
by countries when assessing proposals to import live
aquatic animals or their products.
 If World Trade Organization (WTO) member
countries require sanitary measures beyond those
outlined in the OIE’s Aquatic Animal Health Code,
such measures must be justified by a risk analysis.
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Ecological Risk Analysis
 Often referred to as Pest Analysis
 Overlaps with and complements actions to prevent the
impacts of “Invasive Species”
 Procedures have not been formalized by international
agreement, and thus the process is at the discretion of
the importing country
 Countries need to develop their own standardized risk
analysis procedures
 ICES Code of Practice and other recommended
protocols may serve as a basis of this.
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Invasive Species
A species that has been introduced into an
environment in which it did not evolve, and whose
introduction causes, or is likely to cause, economic or
environmental harm, or harm to human health.
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Invasive Species are
found in
ALL
taxonomic groups
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Effects of Invasive Species
 Predation
 Herbivory
 Competition
 Hybridization
 Disease
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THE INVASIVES PROBLEM
•Invasive organisms are the second greatest
threat to biodiversity worldwide
•Many have totally altered ecosystem structure
and function
•Many have caused enormous economic damage
•Some are a threat to human health
•Invasions are usually not reversible
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INVASION-PREVENTION FILTERS
Pre-entry
World’s
Biota
Port-of-entry
Imports
Rapid-response
Escapes
Widespread
Increasing Cost
Increasing Ease
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Genetic Risks from Aquaculture
 Aquaculture operations frequently lose small numbers
of cultured fish to the natural environment (“leakage”)
 Occasionally, catastrophic losses of large numbers of
fish occur due to equipment failure, storm damage or
flood.
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Why is Genetic Improvement
Important to Aquaculture?
 Genetic improvement can increase aquaculture
production and efficiency
 Genetically superior aquaculture stocks are produced
through:
 use of high-performance exotic stocks & species
(introductions and transfers)
 development & use of:




selectively bred stocks
interspecific hybrids
triploids
transgenic lines (GMOs)
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In Genetic Risk
Analysis:
 Hazardous agent = the cultured stock
 Harm = the resulting damage (i.e. a consequence)
 In the aquaculture context, the hazard may be:
 a non-indigenous (exotic) species or strain
 an interspecific hybrid
 a non-indigenous, selectively bred, triploid or transgenic
stock (includes GMOs)
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Direct Genetic Harms
 Result from interbreeding of a cultured stock with
reproductively compatible populations in the receiving
ecosystem
 Include:
 Loss of adaptation (impacts the same species)
 Interbreeding with escaped cultured organisms displaces allele
frequencies at fitness-related genes in wild populations from selective
optima, resulting in loss of fitness.
 Introgressive hybridization (impacts another species)

Escape or stocking of an exotic species can result in interbreeding with
a reproductively compatible species in the receiving environment. If
the resulting hybrid is fertile, it poses the risk of introgressive
hybridization with the native species, threatening its genetic integrity.
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Direct Genetic Harms
 Examples of loss of adaptation:
 Escapes of Atlantic salmon from net-pen
culture comprise 70% of the spawning
stock in some Norwegian rivers, A
model assessing one-generation effects
of interbreeding of escaped cultured fish
on of natural populations showed
reductions in genetic differentiation up
to 80%.
 Cultured Atlantic salmon differ
genetically and behaviorally from wild
salmon. Cultured and hybrid salmon
had reduced survival, but faster growth
than wild fish, and their parr displaced
wild parr competitively.
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Direct Genetic Harms
 Examples of loss of adaptation:


The lifetime reproductive success of farmed salmon
was 16% that of native salmon, and the productivity
of the wild population was reduced by more than
30% by interbreeding.
Hatchery Atlantic salmon exhibited significant
changes in allele frequencies and loss of lowfrequency alleles relative to the wild population
from which they were derived one generation
earlier. The risk of random genetic drift and
inbreeding had doubled over the one generation.
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Direct Genetic Harms
 Examples of introgressive hybridization:
 In Thailand, hybrid catfish escaping from farms
interbred with native catfish, giving rise to introgressive
hybridization with both wild and cultured stocks .
 In the Philippines, poor management led to unwanted
hybridization of previously pure tilapia species to occur
by escapes and intrusions.
 In Bangladesh, 8.3% of silver carp broodstock exhibited
bighead carp alleles, while 23.3 % of bighead carp
exhibited silver carp alleles. Some fish were advancedgeneration hybrids, compromising broodstock integrity
and performance in aquaculture.
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Indirect Genetic Harms
 Result when escaped or released cultured stock compete or
prey on other populations or species in the receiving
ecosystem.
 Include:
 By reducing their abundance, the effective population size of
affected populations is reduced, causing loss of genetic
variability and ability to adapt in the face of changing
selective pressure, and also increased likelihood of
subsequent inbreeding and extinction.
 If cultured fish interbreed unsuccessfully with a wild
population, the loss of reproductive investment increases
demographic risk. This mechanism can be realized by:
 Interbreeding of a cultured stock and a natural population
that results in a sterile hybrid.
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Indirect Genetic Harms
 The use of triploid aquaculture stocks raises three issues:
 The efficacy with which triploids are produced, which does not
reach a full 100%. Hence, triploid verification has to be
implemented to manage risk.
 The stability of the triploid state. For example, a small
percentage of Pacific and Suminoe oysters have shown signs
of reverting to the diploid state.
 The functional sterility of triploid adults. Triploid males of
some species may undergo gonadal maturation, sometimes
producing haploid or aneuploid sperm. If they mate with
diploid females, the resulting broods will be non-viable,
reducing the reproductive success of the receiving
population.
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Status of Genetic Risk Analysis
 Procedures have not been formalized by international
agreement.
 The process is at the discretion of the importing
country; thus countries need to develop their own
standardized risk analysis procedure.
 ICES Code of Practice and other protocols may serve as
a basis of this.
 Where concerns exist, precautionary approaches
should be applied. This may involve targeted
experimental studies and monitoring of pilot
introductions.
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Aquaculture Offers Many
Potential Benefits
 Economic benefits
 direct and indirect employment
 local investment
 potential export earnings
 Social benefits
 production of high-quality, low-cost protein
 enabling and empowerment of rural populations, including
women
 potential for sustainability and “greenness”
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Balancing the Risks and Benefits
of Aquaculture
The value that a country places on the
potential benefits to be derived from
trade in live aquatic animal species is
incorporated into its national
Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP)
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Key Points
 Careless movements of live aquatic animals can lead
to:
 Degraded habitats
 Reduced biodiversity
 Species becoming rare or extirpated
 Collapse of aquaculture
 Major social and economic impacts
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Key Points
 Risk analysis is a decision-making tool that contributes
to protecting national health and welfare.
 It can also contribute to sustainable aquaculture and
the success of individual aquaculture businesses and
operations.
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