* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download The “Known” Projections of human drivers
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on oceans wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
The Climate Change Group The “Knowers” Andy Bakun Tom Corringham* Dave Erickson Mickey Glantz Hey-Jin Kim* John Moisan Raghu Murtugudde Ron O’Dor Dave Pierce Gino Passalaqua* Nancy Knowlton Art Miller Joanie Kleypas RSMAS/U Miami UCSD, Economics Oak Ridge Nat. Lab Nat. Ctr Atmos. Res. SIO NASA U Maryland Census of Mar. Life SIO SIO SIO SIO Nat. Ctr Atmos. Res. *Able students The “Known” Projections of Climate Change Ocean pH Sea surface temperature Sea level Ocean stratification Water cycle glaciers and sea ice best known runoff (region-dependant) precipitation Changes in ocean circulation/wind patterns/upwelling Meridional overturning (thermohaline circulation) Tropical cyclone activity Dust delivery (and trace metals) to the oceans least known Direct effect of CO2 forcing [CO32-] at 280 ppmv and 560 ppmv Spatial differences in surface warming The “Known” Projections of Impacts on Biodiversity Forcing Impact on Biodiversity Lowered pH Decrease in calcification rates of organisms that secrete shells → biodiversity Increased SST Poleward migration of tropical species; Contraction of high latitude habitats Sea level rise Expansion and contraction of coastal habitat species Increased stratification Decrease in nutrient availability → shifts between P-limited and N-limited systems Loss of sea-ice extent Reduction in sea-ice dependent communities Increased coastal upwelling Potentially increases nutrient availability with effects on community structure → biodiversity Decreased thermohaline circulation Lowered nutrient supply to subarctic and tropical systems → biodiversity Predicted changes in “Ecosystem Domain Areas” from Climate Models of 2040-2060 Highly productive Weakly productive Productive Oligotrophic Sarmiento et al., 2004 The Unknowns (and why) Forcings: 1. Feedbacks of clouds on climate 2. Temporal and spatial variance in all physical variables 3. Tropical cyclone effects on ventilation (reduction of the “dead zone”) 4. Effects of human behavior on climate change forcing (CO2, land use, etc.) Biodiversity: 1. Relationship between productivity and biodiversity in the open ocean 2. Time-scales of biological adaptation to changes in forcings 3. Roles of species interactions in modulating biodiversity 4. Response of subsurface biodiversity to surface changes The Unknowable, and the significance of not knowing 1. Behavior of large-scale climate oscillations – PDO/NAO/ENSO – could have large overriding effects 2. Glacial/Polar ice collapse – not likely, but would have huge impact 3. THC shutdown – not likely, but would have large impact 4. Biological ‘surprises’ – e.g., coral bleaching, marine diseases; animal behavior – can completely alter structure of marine biological community Gaps in knowledge: what do we need to know and why Time-space patterns of “biodiversity” 1. – – 2. baseline data on present-day or past biodiversity retrospective studies or synthesis of existing data (COML) Models – – include intrinsic population variability necessary to assess biodiversity higher resolution modeling at ecosystem/community scales 3. Development of downscaling, esp. in coastal regions 4. Physiological studies; genetic analyses of plasticity of species’/populations’ environmental tolerances Is it possible to reverse the trajectory of degradation? NO… but it’s possible to slow the trajectory • Stabilize emissions – does not halt the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases – DOES reduce the rate of change • Reduce non-climate stresses • Include projections of climate change as a component of conservation design