Download UNDP-TACC Pilot project Uruguay

UNDP-TACC Pilot project Uruguay
Territorial Climate Profile
Assessing and mapping
climate change vulnerabilities
of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
ClimSAT
Work in Progress
December 2009
Pictures from:
1
2
3
!
1- Intendencia Municipal de Montevideo
Aerial view of Toledo chico en Montevideo, Uruguay
Date: 2002
2- From Modis images 2002-2003, NASA
Extract showing the Rio de la Plata estuary in South America
Date: 2002-2003
3- Abraham Bustti
Extract from Represa, Aguas Corrientes, Uruguay
Date: Unknown
4- ClimSAT
Extract from a map of climatic prospective on the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, Uruguay
Date: November 2009
Contributors
ClimSAT
Serge Dedeystere, Violaine Lepousez, Benjamin Ponge, Alain Retiere
and partners in Uruguay : Federico Ferla, Ignacio Lorenzo, Paul Moizo, Luis Ordeig
ClimSAT
Maison du Technopole Brest Iroise
40 rue Jim Sevellec
29200 BREST
FRANCE
Table of Contents
Context, objectives and process overview!........................................................2
Prospective climatology!..............................................................................................................2
The territorial assets of the territory and the interaction between its structuring elements!.........2
Exposure of the system!..............................................................................................................3
Sensitivity of the system!.............................................................................................................3
Adaptive capacity and possibilities considering the studied system!...........................................3
Case study : the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay!........................4
The territorial approach to climate change in Uruguay: institutional and operational
background!.................................................................................................................................4
Key actors !...................................................................................................................................................4
Key vulnerabilities of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay (Source: Project Document-TACC
Uruguay)!.......................................................................................................................................................5
Alignment with former adaptation and mitigation strategies (Source: Project Document-TACC Uruguay)!......5
Climate change related local institutions, knowledge and constraints (Source: Project Document-TACC
Uruguay)!.......................................................................................................................................................5
Introduction: the territorial assets of the territory and the interaction between its structuring
elements!.....................................................................................................................................6
Water resources and water uses facing climate changes!...........................................................6
Critical water resources for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo!..................................................................6
Prospective climatology : downscaled climatic present and future data according to 2 IPCC scenarios and 2
models !.........................................................................................................................................................7
System analysis : understanding the hydrological context!...........................................................................12
Exposure"assessment of water resources and water uses !.........................................................................13
Sensitivity"assessment of water resources and water uses !.........................................................................15
Prospective climatology: future sensitivity to climate change!.......................................................................17
Adaptive capacity and possibilities !.............................................................................................................20
Research and Development opportunities !..................................................................................................22
Agriculture and food production facing climate changes!..........................................................23
Exposure of agriculture and food production !..............................................................................................23
Sensitivity"of the agriculture and food production !.......................................................................................24
Adaptive capacity and possibilities !.............................................................................................................25
Research and Development opportunities !..................................................................................................25
Bibliography!........................................................................................................27
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
1|P a g e
Context, objectives and process overview
Introduction:
A territory is a complex structure where assets are inter linked through different forms such as raw
material use, production, consumption, dependence on other systems.
The commonly used sectorial analysis is not adapted to the global climate change as it influences
several parameters and several objects at the same time but at different degrees.
Thereof the systemic analysis allows to integrating the different exposed and vulnerable systems in
the understanding of the territory.
Thus the process involves several steps of analysis and modelling:
System analysis
-understand the main dynamics and interactions in the territory
System
Exposure
Vulnerability= (exposure* sensitivity)* adaptive capacity
Sensitivity
Exposure assessment
-exposure inventory of the impacted systems
Resilience
Sensitivity assessment and mapping
- the resistance of the exposed system: the location, the degree, the
mechanisms at stake
Potential
Impacts
Adaptive Capacity
Existing Defenses
Net Vulnerability
Adaptive capacity assessment and mapping
-existing defences, coping mechanisms: the location, the degree of
efficiency, the potential mobilization
Vulnerability assessment and mapping
-synthesized indicators of the vulnerable systems: the location, the
frequency, the degree of vulnerability
Adaptive Possibilities and
Recommendations
Figure 1: Process and concept overview
Prospective climatology
Past, present and future climate data of high resolution, adapted to the territorial scale, allows the
implementation of prospective studies. By analysing climatic past data linked to past event and their
impacts, and choosing the relevant climatic parameters to study (e.g. precipitation, temperature,
wind, air humidity), future climatic data according to IPCC scenarios can then be analysed through
this adopted vision. Maps, graphs produced can be adapted to and data integrated in other analysis.
The territorial assets of the territory and the interaction between its structuring
elements
Composed of basic maps showing how the relations between the various systems are built and
settled or not, it is based on the understanding of the physical assets of the territory (i.e.
geomorphology, hydrology and ecosystems: relief, hydrology, soil, coast line, …) and associated to
human assets (e.g. population, urbanisation, industries). It highlights the interactions and dynamics
of the territory: food, energies, water uses, wastes, ….
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
2|P a g e
Figure 2: Human and natural sub systems classification for any territory
This first step allows to clearly identify the most vulnerable assets which analysis and study are
needed. A special set of maps can be elaborated to emphasise the specific features of the most
vulnerable systems.
Exposure of the system
Exposure is the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations
(IPCC, 2001). Thus, it can be expressed as the population and assets that are potentially at risk
considering one potential change.
The map produced identifies the functioning of the vulnerable system and highlights the nature and
degree to which this system is exposed to significant climatic variations. In particular, it may
encompass the existing and potential forcing factors of the system dynamics.
Sensitivity of the system
Sensitivity is the degree to which changes in climate attributes cause changes in environmental
systems or socio economic activities (IPCC, 2001).
The map produced identifies the impacts of climate change on the already identified dynamics of the
chosen systems. It can be illustrated by trends of probabilistic changes or potential future changes. It
also integrates elements for prospective studies.
Adaptive capacity and possibilities considering the studied system
Adaptive capacity is the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behaviour, in order to
expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate conditions, adaptability is
the measure of coping capacity (IPCC, 2001).
The map produced identifies the possible adaptation strategies, without forgetting the actual
adaptive capacities, in order to cope with the challenging global change influence on the territorial
system dynamics. It allows to call attention to potential and relevant climate change adaptation
development projects.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
3|P a g e
Case study : the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in
Uruguay
)"'*+,(
!"#$%&%'(
!"#
$%&
$'(
$)'
(*(
$
+*'(,-.$/.&(,$
(-(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((.--(/0((
Figure 3: Uruguay in South America (Source: From Modis images 2002-2003, NASA)
The Metropolitan area of Montevideo concentrates 60% of the population of Uruguay and is
composed of 3 departments («intendancias»): Montevideo, Canelones and San Jose. This coastal
zone is very active as it welcomes many activities such as industrial, agricultural and livestock, and
institutional (e.g. headquarters of Mercosur). Its Gross Aggregated Value (GAV) is roughly two thirds
of the country’s GAV as well.
First evidences of climate changes are gradual increase in temperatures and in precipitation and sea
level rise. Indeed, the predicted long term variations in the climate characteristics (climate profile) are
increase precipitation (+ 5% in 2050) particularly in winter, increase temperature in winter and
summer (+1.5°C) and shortened freezing period (i.e. towards a more tropical climate). Besides, it is
very probable that the region will experience more intense and more frequent extremes events such
as droughts, floods and storms.
The territorial approach to climate change in Uruguay: institutional and
operational background
This study is part of the main products of the Climate Profile elaborated in view of designing and
implementing an Integrate Territorial Climate Plan, in the frame of United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) TACC Programme (Territorial Approach to Climate Change).
Key actors
The Metropolitan area of Montevideo is composed of three departments, coordinated by the “Agenda
Metropolitana”, all four structures soundly involved in the TACC process. The national actors
participating to the implementation of the TACC program are the Climate Change Unit of the Ministry
of the Environment and the Planning Office. In a second stand are also involved several actors for
consultation or information procurement purposes essentially, among which are other stakeholder
departments that are concerned with hydrology, topography, water, planning, natural resources, agro
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
4|P a g e
fishing, meteorology, tourism; but also public organisms and autonomous establishments that
oversee administration of railroad, maritime roads, electricity, institute of statistics, direction of
aviation, universities. Adding to these institutions, other projects or programs on climate change
already exist e.g. early warning national system, environment and poverty initiative, vulnerability and
sustainable environment at the territorial level or hydrological studies such as Ecoplata and Freplata.
Key vulnerabilities of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay (Source: Project
Document-TACC Uruguay)
The main vulnerabilities of the Metropolitan area have to do with human settlements, since this region
presents large inequalities and most of the irregular settlements. The three departments also present
large coastal areas, and coastal vulnerability has been considered critical in terms of sea level rise
and extreme events. Other key vulnerabilities include the agricultural sector, largely dependent on
precipitation and water resources, like The Santa Lucía River, that provides drinking water for
Montevideo and that flows through the three departments of the Metropolitan Region. Although some
studies of local vulnerabilities have been done by the Ministry of Environment, additional work is
needed to have a better understanding of the key vulnerability issues at the local scale. A recent law
has made it mandatory for Departments to prepare territorial planning documents. This should
provide a good opportunity to integrate climate change in planning strategies from the start.
Alignment with former adaptation and mitigation strategies (Source: Project Document-TACC
Uruguay)
The TACC Program is aligned with the United Nations Country Common Assessment in Uruguay
(CCA), which identifies the country’s need to reduce its vulnerability to climate change and variability
through adaptation programmes and by increasing its risk management capacities. In addition,
adaptation to climate change and risk reduction is included in one of the United Nations
Development Assistance Framework! UNDAF (2007-2010) programme outputs and in one of the
UNDP Country Programme outputs: "Measures for adaptation and mitigation to climate change and
risk reduction plans implemented by the Government, the private sector and the civil society". In
addition, supporting local! development! strategies is one of the priorities of UNDP Uruguay that
supports institutional development of local governments and territorial and environmental
development.
Climate change related local institutions, knowledge and constraints (Source: Project DocumentTACC Uruguay)
The science of climate change is limited to a few experts, most of who are within the Climate Change
Unit («Unidad de Cambio Climático») of the Ministry of Environment or scattered in some key
Ministries such as Agriculture. Few policy-makers and stakeholders are aware of the magnitude of
anticipated economic impacts. Existing institutional frameworks (led by the National
Communications) focus largely on climate change scenarios and inventories of emissions and do not
include systematic considerations of measures for pursuing low-carbon development opportunities
and/or adaptation response measures. Consequently, the impacts of climate change on
development, poverty reduction, and conservation strategies are not well appreciated. Even the
linkages to disaster risk response and management initiatives led by Sistema Nacional de
Emergencias, as a basis on which to build upon in terms of established early warning systems,
vulnerability assessments and capacity building, are not fully capitalised upon yet at the local level.
Moreover, traditional development planning tools have not been designed to incorporate climate
information and countries suffer from the lack of long-term investment planning instruments that are
able to cope with the inherent uncertainties of climate change. Currently available tools have typically
focused on short-term threats in two or three key sectors with less emphasis on resilience of longlived investment in the context of climate uncertainty. The National Communications (NCs) developed
under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have endeavoured to lay the
foundations for prospective exercises to address climate risks. However, this has been hampered by
the lack of relevant analysis and capacities to inform policy and decision-making. In addition, current
tools either focus exclusively on climate, economics, or engineering alone and rarely, as necessary to
manage uncertainty, in an integrated way. In addition, technical capacity, leadership and/or relevant
institutional structures including budgetary support to sustain the application of appropriate planning
tools are often lacking or not systematically in place.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
5|P a g e
Introduction: the territorial assets of the territory and the interaction between
its structuring elements
Uruguay is part of the Uruguayan savannah biome, related to the temperate grasslands. With a
temperate humid climate, changes in the weather can be brutal because of the cold winds coming
from the Argentine pampas.
The Metropolitan area of Montevideo has a very dense hydrographic network linked to the Rio de La
Plata river and to the Atlantic Ocean. The Santa Lucía river contributes to 60% of the national
population needs in water, and nearly 100% of Montevideo needs in water.
Even if the demographic growth rate of 0.7% is one of the smallest of South America, the very
urbanised area of Montevideo is applying pressure on the lands in terms of quantity (i.e. residential or
industrial activities artificializing some previous agricultural lands) and quality (e.g. pollution from
industrial and agricultural sectors, or loss of very endemic biodiversity).
Coastal zones are also especially jeopardised by the expansion of residential zones, which increases
the degree of vulnerability of this zone (e.g. erosion).
As the economic nucleus of the country, this region concentrates industrial activities and supports
the important transportation network including port and storage infrastructures. Agriculture has a
significant role in the development planning as 70 % of the Metropolitan population needs in food
come from the close agricultural exploitations which main activities are fruticulture, horticulture,
viticulture but also cereal cultures and pastures mainly for dairy farming and meat production.
At last, energies supply of Uruguayan activities are mainly coming from imported fossil fuel and, but
in a less significant part, hydrological energies. The area presents potential opportunities of
decreasing their fuel dependency by increasing their hydrological, wind power and biomass related
energies.
The cross analysis of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo main features allows the identification of
two priority systems which are, adding to the fact that they are essential for the sustainable
development of the area, very sensitive to climate changes: water resources and agriculture-food
supply.
Water resources and water uses facing climate changes
Critical water resources for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
60% of the total population of Uruguay (3.5 millions) live in the metropolitan area of Montevideo.
In this territory, nearly 100% of the population drinking water needs are supplied from a single
pumping station located in the Santa Lucía river. Water resources and uses appear to be threatened
both in terms of quality (contaminants and saltwater) and quantity (floods and droughts conducing to
shortages of water supply).
Water related territorial systems at climate change risk are numerous and varied as most of activities
concentrated in this relatively small territory are dependent on water:
• Very urbanised densely populated coastal zone,
• Highly sensitive ecosystems (20,000 ha of hosted wetlands and riparian forests),
• Complex and unstable hydrographic networks,
• High concentration of intensive agriculture (agrochemicals, irrigation)
• Highly exposed fish stocks,
• Sensitive hydropower infrastructures (sedimentation, unstable supply).
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
6|P a g e
Figure 4: Water resources and uses in the territory of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, Uruguay
Prospective climatology : downscaled climatic present and future data according to 2 IPCC
scenarios and 2 models 1
One of the main climatic factor relative to water issues is precipitation. It is also one of the most
difficult to foresee in the future because of its high spatial and temporal variabilities.
On the region of interest, daily precipitation at 5 km resolution were produced for
• the 1979-1986 period (“climatology”)
• the 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 periods with 2 IPCC scenarios A2 (business-as-usual-attitude
assumption) and B1 (global cooperation towards environmentally sustainable development
hypothesis). Today, two models approved by IPCC have been run: IPSL-CM42 and CNRM-CM33 .
The results in the figure below are illustrating the largest panorama of foreseen climate change due to
the choice of the extreme IPCC scenarios.
According to the first results and to the IPSL projections considering the SRES A2 «pessimistic»
scenario, the global behaviour at the end of the century is an overall increase (+2.6%) with local
decreases. Nevertheless, less precipitation in 2081-2100 than in 2046-2065 have to be noticed.
Furthermore, maximum local changes in 2081-2100 reach (+13% ; -21.5%).
Considering the SRES B1 «optimistic» scenario, the general trend is an overall stagnation with a little
tendency to decrease (-0.4% with local decreases and increases) and still less precipitation in
2081-2100 than in 2046-2065 have to be noticed. At last, maximum local changes in 2081-2100
reach (+26.6% ; -9.2%).
1
See the ClimSAT Technical Note for more details on the methodological process
2
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
3
CNRM, Météo-France, France
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
7|P a g e
Mean annual precipitation over two periods with IPSL-CM4 model
IPCC SRES A2
(business-as-usual-attitude assumption)
IPCC SRES B1 (global cooperation towards
environmentally sustainable development)
Figure 5: Past mean annual precipitation followed by the IPSL climate projections for A2 and B1 IPCC
scenarios over two future periods for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
Furthermore, in several historical classification of worldwide climates, visualising the driest and the
wettest month of the year appears to be a very significant parameter to determine the climate of a
territory 4.
Therefore, maps showing the evolution of the driest and wettest months over a future period have
been produced and highlight a marked delay in the rainfall peak or driest peak (1 to 2 months)
compared to present (Figures 6 and 7 below).
This probable time-lag could have some crucial consequences on agriculture and water resources
and on the tendency to flooding events.
For instance, in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, the mean driest month is generally July.
According to the IPSL-CM4 model, the mean driest month could be delayed to August with the
«optimistic» B1 scenario whereas it could be advanced to June with the «pessimistic» A2 scenario.
The two phenomenon are accompanied by a small increase in the total average rainfall.
4
See for instance the Koppen classification
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
8|P a g e
Mean driest month over three periods with IPSL-CM4 model
IPCC SRES A2
(business-as-usual-attitude assumption)
IPCC SRES B1 (global cooperation towards
environmentally sustainable development)
Figure 6: Past mean driest month followed by the IPSL climate projections for A2 and B1 IPCC
scenarios over two future periods for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
Similarly, the mean wettest month usually in February in this region could be delayed and be in
March, with an overall small decrease in the total monthly rainfall for the «optimistic» B1 scenario.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
9|P a g e
Mean wettest month over three periods with IPSL-CM4 model
IPCC SRES A2
(business-as-usual-attitude assumption)
IPCC SRES B1 (global cooperation towards
environmentally sustainable development)
Figure 7: Past mean wettest month followed by the IPSL climate projections for A2 and B1 IPCC
scenarios over two future periods for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
10 | P a g e
The same tendency is illustrated in the figure 8 below that represents the mean annual precipitation
profile for the past and two future periods, and for one virtual station located in San Jose de Mayo.
In A2 scenario, by 2100, climate will be slightly drier but higher seasonal variation, with a marked
delay in the rainfall peak (1 to 2 months) compared to present and heavier spring precipitations.
In B1 scenario, by 2100, decreasing rainfall is less marked, with a lower seasonal variation and less
delay in the rainfall peak compared to present, although by 2050 rainfall follows a pattern similar to A2
scenario.
Mean annual precipitation profile over three periods with IPSL-CM4 model
IPCC SRES B1 (global cooperation towards
environmentally sustainable development)
!"#$%&'($)*$+",&$
-.!/01234$56$!1*#"78&$
!"#$%&'($)*$+",&$$
-.!/01234$56$!1*#"78&$
3--'
3--'
1-'
1-'
-'
-'
!"#$#%&'()*+''
,-./0,-/1'
C7@'
,-230,3--'
,-./0,-/1'
!"#$#%&'()*+''
,-230,3--'
!"#$#%&'()*+''
,-./0,-/1'
,-230,3--'
,-./0,-/1'
!"#$#%&'()*+''
C7@'
31-'
456'
+78'
95*'
5!*'
95:'
4;6'
4;<'
5;='
>7!'
?@A'
6?B'
31-'
456'
+78'
95*'
5!*'
95:'
4;6'
4;<'
5;='
>7!'
?@A'
6?B'
IPCC SRES A2
(business-as-usual-attitude assumption)
,-230,3--'
Figure 8: Past mean rainfall profile followed by the IPSL climate projections for A2 and B1 IPCC
scenarios over two future periods, for San Jose de Mayo in Uruguay
The Climatology over the 1960-2000 period was produced by dynamical downscaling with WRF 5
limited area model at 5 km horizontal resolution, and forced with NCEP re-analysis in order to achieve
nesting from 100 km to 25 km and to 5 km.
These data were then used as "gridded observations" to calibrate the statistical downscaling of the
IPCC Climate simulations.
Then downscaling of IPCC climate simulations (21st century) were processed through statistical
downscaling 6 based on the matching of cumulative density functions at large scale (climate models)
and local scale ("gridded obs" from WRF at 5 km).
The next steps of this prospective climatology are:
-to complete and refine the Climatology with WRF (dynamical downscaling): longer climatology
(1960-2000), tuning of the (micro-)physics for resolution/region of interest, data assimilation (nudging)
along the run with station observations, higher resolution (1 km) over extreme events periods, use of
higher resolution forcing (GFS-FNL, 50 km)
5 Michalakes, J., J. Dudhia, D. Gill, T. Henderson, J. Klemp, W. Skamarock, and W. Wang: The Weather Research
and Forecast Model: Software Architecture and Performance. Proceedings of the Eleventh ECMWF Workshop
on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology. Eds. Walter Zwieflhofer and George Mozdzynski.
World Scientific, 2005, pp 156 - 168
6
Michelangeli, P.-A., M. Vrac, and H. Loukos (2009), Probabilistic downscaling approaches: Application to wind
cumulative distribution functions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038401.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
11 | P a g e
-to complete and refine the climate projections (statistical downscaling): ~15 IPCC models / SRES A2
and B1, extreme events (frequency, amplitude, ...) over 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 periods.
System analysis : understanding the hydrological context
When considering the water resources of a territory, the generally taken unit is the watershed. It
corresponds to a region draining into a river, or other body of water.
In the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, the Santa Lucía watershed is nearly covering the all region of
interest. It is connected to the Rio de la Plata and thus is also dependent on its main hydrologic
behaviour. Therefore it appears necessary to first understand the hydrological context of the Santa
Lucía watershed, the Rio de la Plata collective basin.
The immense estuary of the Rio de la Plata is the mouth of the Uruguay and Parana rivers.
250 km long and always less than 10 m deep, it is the frontier between Argentina and Uruguay.
Furthermore, navigation channels have to be maintained frequently because the river carries more
than 57 millions of m3 of sediments every year.
Indeed the 3 million km2 collecting basin covers an important part of South America (for reference,
the Congo Basin is 1.8 million km2) and drains important and mostly alluvial lands.
It can be considered as a delta and an estuary because of the confrontation of the inland and sea
influences. This very special characteristic highlights the unique hydrologic behaviour of this
watershed.
The Santa Lucía watershed is part of the Rio de la Plata watershed and supplies nearly 100 % of the
Metropolitan area water requirements.
Besides, the single water pumping station is located 30 km northwards to the Rio de la Plata estuary.
Figure 9: Collecting basin and coverage of the Rio de la Plata in South America
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
12 | P a g e
In this major South American watershed, three significant factors are potentially impacting water
resources in the area of interest:
-the Brazilian Mato Grosso region in the Northwest is experiencing major land use changes including
deforestation and soil erosion related to cattle and agrofuel rapid expansion. Thereof increasing
volume of sediments incoming Rio de la Plata can be foreseen in the future.
-the high seasonal variation of river discharges are highly site specific. Furthermore, the closest we
are to the region of interest the highest is the seasonality of river discharge. Consequently, it leads to
increasing risks of floods during some particular time of the year. For instance, the Rio Negro
discharge registered in the Palmar station in Uruguay (200 km in the northwest of Montevideo) has a
very marked profile, with higher outflows in winter.
Figure 10!: Rio Negro yearly discharge profile in the Palmar station
-and the times of concentration 7 of the main rivers of the all watershed are very different: river
carrying capacities are different. For instance, the time of concentration of the Rio Parana is between
1 and 2 months whereas the Rio Uruguay’s one is between 1 and 2 weeks. It emphasises the
probability of large scale floods in the region of interest.
To conclude, the hydrological context of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo is complex and very
exposed to global and rapid changes which could be impacting the risk of floods in this coastal
territory.
Exposure"assessment of water resources and water uses
The 230 km Santa Lucía river flows into the Rio de la Plata at the Delta del Tigre exit point, 20 km
west of Montevideo centre. Its watershed covered 13,500 km2 and nearly the all Metropolitan area of
Montevideo.
620,000 m3 per day ( 7m3 per second) of Santa Lucía river water are pumped to supply the 1.7 million
inhabitants of the territory of interest requirements.
The average outlet at the exit point is around 3 800 000 m3 per day ( 28 m3 per second) whereas the
average outlet of the Santa Lucía river is close to 130 m3 per second.
Because of its hydrological context and its geographical location, the water related systems of the
Metropolitan area of Montevideo are highly exposed to three main forcing factors potentially
cumulative:
• increasing risk of heavily loaded water discharges in Rio de la Plata,
• Atlantic Ocean level rise and more intense winds pushing saltwater towards Santa Lucía river,
• and structural limitation of Santa Lucía watershed to drain floods and resist droughts
Further, the seasonal variation of these factors is very high.
7
The time of concentration (Tc) is generally defined as the time required for a drop of water to travel from the
most hydrologically remote point in the subcatchment to the point of collection.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
13 | P a g e
The following maps (Figures 10 and 11) show the functioning of the water components of the territory
and its main forcing factors all strongly exposed to climate changes. These include the alluvial
contribution of the Rio de la Plata as it drains an important part of South American soils through the
Rio Parana and the Rio Uruguay, the sea’s influence through saltwater intrusion, the various sources
of pollution and places of catchment, and the behaviour of the Rio Santa Lucía.
The Rio de la Plata estuary is composed of 3 hydrological corridors depending mostly on the 3
different confluent dynamics. The Rio Uruguay plays a significant part in the Rio de la Plata dynamics
during periods of floods and a couple of weeks is enough to rise the water level of 10 cm after an
intensive rain period.
Extreme and intense rain periods can provoke floods in some particular context. The rain floods
phenomenon, adding to the intense rain period and to soil, and agronomic parameters, can be
allocated and thus are accentuated at two thirds to south-east winds and at one third to the swell.
The flood risks are also connected to sediment clogging phenomenon because of the significant
alluvial components carried by the rivers, and particularly the Rio de la Plata. Therefore, it
encompasses clogging and engulfing dynamics, thus calling for dredging needs to maintain the
navigation channels of this delta-estuary.
During the rainy winters and their following springs in this region of South America, rivers outflows
reach their maximum, and sometimes the volume of surface water even exceeds the carrying
capacities of the rivers and of the water basins. This is particularly true for the Santa Lucía water
basin of which the main exit point is the Delta del Tigre, at nearly 10 kilometres west from the centre
of Montevideo. Furthermore, these overflows are also recurrent for the Rio de la Plata carrying
important amount of sediments. The outflows are significant and waters and sediments are carried
away by the strong currents towards the Delta del Tigre direction. Adding to these first forcing
factors, the south and south easterly winter winds drive the sea currents towards the coastal zone of
the Metropolitan area of Montevideo. The combination of these two forcing factors impedes the
discharge of the Santa Lucía in the Rio de la Plata, thus emphasises the degree of exposure of this
area to rain floods in late winter.
Figure 11: Winter forcing factors of the exposure of water resources in the Metropolitan area of
Uruguay.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
14 | P a g e
Figure 12: Summer forcing factors of the exposure of water resources in the Metropolitan area of
Uruguay.
During the summers and falls, river discharges are lower. The water coming from the Rio de la Plata
concentrates alluvial elements swept away by the currents towards the coastline of the Metropolitan
area of Montevideo. The probability of clogging in the Delta del Tigre is also accentuated by the small
river outflow of the Santa Lucía river, which means that its currents are not powerful enough to expel
the sediments. During this same period, the winds drive the sea currents towards the Metropolitan
area of Montevideo. The salinity front is still reaching the Delta del Tigre, and saltwater can enter the
river, attracted by the poor volume of water discharged by the Santa Lucía river. Eventually, during
summers, the Metropolitan area of Montevideo is exposed to saltwater intrusion and clogging
sediments phenomenon, adding to the drought tendencies in the Santa Lucía water basin.
Sensitivity"assessment of water resources and water uses
Climate changes directly affect the annual repartition of rainfall both in space and time. But their
impacts on the critical water resources of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo are more varied. The
system analysis of the water related territorial assets and the territorial exposure assessment have
highlighted the dynamics and forcing factors of this system.
By considering past events and climate projections, the sensitive assessment integrates the climatic
parameter in the reckoning and endeavours to study the potential impacts on the water related
systems. This study has to be achieved at two level: firstly qualitative and then quantitative when
possible.
The following map shows how the water resources and uses of the Metropolitan area of Montevideo
are likely to react and evolve (e.g. trends, probabilities, hotspots) in the future according to climate
projections.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
15 | P a g e
Figure 13: Sensitivity of water resources to climate changes in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo,
Uruguay
Attention should be focused on six points considering the sensitivity of water resources in the
Metropolitan area of Montevideo:
1. At the watershed scale, the intensive agriculture practices and the high population density heighten
the degree of vulnerability of water resources and uses
Intensive agriculture practices such as important introduction of inputs or intensive land use or no crop
rotation increase the sensitivity of water resources because it leads to increase drainage, decrease
the natural biological activity of soils, decrease the sustainability of land uses and their natural safety
net function thus increase risk of pollution or erosion and non efficient uses of water resources.
Because high population density increases the degree of pressure by artificializing lands, it increases
their degree of sensitivity and their recovery possibilities. Therefore, at the watershed level, the
sustainability of water resources are directly dependent on these two phenomenon.
2. At an agricultural point of view, increase droughts could accentuate water depletion and saltwater
intrusion phenomenon and on the contrary, increase winter rain floods could emphasise
waterlogged planted lands and increased agrochemicals drainage tendencies
Increase droughts would have significant consequences on agriculture both at a short and long terms:
water depletion could lead to decrease crop yield or even crop loss but could also emphasise the
saltwater intrusion phenomenon leading to the same impacts on crops but also durably affecting soil
properties. Increase risk of flooding during winters and springs could affect agricultural fields and
crops but also helping agrochemical to be drained.
3. As for wetlands and specific ecosystems along riverbeds, the risk of saltwater intrusion could imply
irreversible damages to freshwater, crops and ecosystems
20,00 ha of wetlands are situated in this territory. They are mainly located close to riverbed, along with
riparian forests. Increasing risk of saltwater intrusion in those mixed zones could certainly affect the
quality of water, crop development, but also ecosystems that are not fully adapted to some salt
concentration in their substrate. Above one threshold of concentration, very strict and long term
actions have to be implemented to help the soils and water to come back to their original
characteristics.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
16 | P a g e
4. Focusing at the Rio de la Plata scale, changes in salinity and turbidity could impact fish stocks
displacements and increase ecosystems destruction and obstacle to Santa Lucía!s outflow
The particular Rio de la Plata delta-estuary with the dual influences of the inland rivers (flow,
sediments, others contaminants) and the Atlantic Ocean (swell, salt, temperature, other properties)
offers some very specific niches for fish stocks and close ecosystems. The modification of those
parameters could affect fish stocks displacements and ecological habitats impacting the environment
and the socio economy (fisheries, but also tourism and cultural services provided by the specific
ecological habitat. Changes in turbidity (increase) could also impedes the discharge of the Santa
Lucía in the Rio de la Plata, increasing the risk of floods during winters or of engulfing/saltwater
intrusion during summers.
5. The drinkable water could be severely impacted by the higher seasonal variability such as drinking
water depletion in summer and reduced quality of drinking water through higher concentration of
mud and contaminants
Drinkable water are mainly coming from the Santa Lucía, and water is pumped at a single point, 30
km northwards to the Rio de la Plata exit point . Therefore its qulity and quantity are highly dependant
on the water state of the watershed which is even more sensitive due to its location close to the Rio
de la Plata (floods, saltwater or turbide water intrusions) , and to the urban areas and intensive
agriculture lands (chemical drainage, pollution, erosion and sediment loading). The high seasonal
variability (less water during summers) increases the risk of water depletion.
6. As a very dense urban area, higher water supply needs due to increasing population could also
have significant consequences on water resources in the future.
Even if the demographic growth rate of the country of 0.7% is one of the smallest of South America,
the Metropolitan area of Montevideo keeps on attracting Uruguayan and the increasing population
could apply pressure on the already sensitive water resources.
Prospective climatology: future sensitivity to climate change
After having studied the exposure and the qualitative sensitivity of water resources to climate change,
climatic issues have been raised. What are the probability of such extremes events to happen and
how can they be forecasted based on past events studies? What are the long term tendencies for the
climatic parameters on which water resources dynamics are depending on? In other words, what is
the future sensitivity of water resources and uses in this Metropolitan area of Montevideo?
Event
Date
Affected people
Flood
Flood
Flood
05/04/2007
june-01
05/16/2000
119,200
5,000
5,000
Flood
Flood
Flood
04/11/1998
august-86
1967
9,300
18,500
38,063
Figure 14: Flooding events in Uruguay since 1967 (Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database - UCL)
Several severe flood events have affected Uruguay, the most recent one in may 2007 affecting nearly
120!000 people. A set of particular forcing factors were involved: winds-intense rains and to a smaller
extent, swells.
The study of the climatic variables on those periods highlights the behaviour of the sensitivity of the
water basin of interest. This illustrates the need to consider the probability of occurrence for such
events. A commonly used method consists in calculating the return period of climatic events. For a
rainfall event for example, we first set a threshold of an intensity of precipitation (Y mm in X days) and
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
17 | P a g e
then count the number of times the threshold has been exceeded in the period of study, which gives
the return period (for example 4 times in 100 years gives a return period of 25 years).
Thus the return period enables to draw the probability of occurrence for a given event.
For example the probability for a territory to undergo an event of a 25 years- return period in any year
is 1/25.
In a steady climate, the return period gives an excellent idea of the occurrences of climatic events.
The issue we have to handle with climate change is the evolution of extreme events which tend to be
more intense and more frequent (which means that the return period is no longer constant).
Therefore the questions raised are to what extent the frequency of past known extreme events will
speed up? And how will evolve the more extreme events registered in intensity?
Figure 15: Example of graph showing the evolution of frequency and intensity of extreme events since
1960
Future climatic data can be analysed and interpreted through this unit of perception of vulnerable
years. This study will be elaborated under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 covering a large range of
probable future climatic tendencies (from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic scenarios) and
15 to 20 models approved by the IPCC have been run. The time periods of these projections are
2046-2065 and 2081-2100.
The threshold calculated for the past climatic data will allow to highlight the return period of such
extremes events in the future and to considering several degree of intensity of rain floods.
!.)&2**+'3*&+)4*&/'%"#$%&'5"%)*+'
!"#$%&'("%)*+
,-".%/0
)'"
'
'
*!"
(!"
A9
'!"
C:"
"
56C
)!"
56
93
B/9
3
99
"B/
'!"
%!"
'!"
&!"
#!"
$"
%!"
#!"
'"
)"
("
%"
$!"
)"
'"
%"
$"
#!"
$'"
#'"
#!"
#&"
!"
*!"
#!!"
#$!"
;10<:<,0/"421-46"=24593"749."=0:1"9>:24?0<96:"
#&!"
#(!"
#*!"
@:<.0123"421-46"=24593";,260459#""
$!!"
+,,-.-/0123"4056"70//"56")$"89-4:''
',110'
@:<.0123"421-46"=24593";,260459$""
Figure 16: Example of graph showing the evolution of frequency and intensity of extreme events
according to 2 IPCC scenarios
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
18 | P a g e
Hydrology study and future impacts of heavy rainfall events
First, before considering future scenarios, a model of the territory of interest at the watershed level
has to be run, involving drawing the topological shape with a Digital Elevation Model to calculate flow
directions, mapping the land cover and the geology to predict the ratios of infiltration and surface
runoff, and characterising the main climatic features (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar
radiation, humidity). Then the ArcSWAT8 software is run, which provides discharge data in the
different streams studied, soil moisture content over the area. The last step of the hydrologic
modelling is to calibrate the model with past flow records so that past modelled situations fit with the
experienced ones.
Once the hydrologic model is fit, results of future scenarios will be integrated as inputs to calibrate
the model with the future extreme events predicted, and foresee the hydrologic response of the
watershed.
!)1"%'2"1"2')&4%"./"'%"#$%&'6"%)*+/'''
!"#$%&'("%)*+'
,-".%/0'
'#!"
'!!"
&!"
%!"
1"
"
"
A: ;97C
:
B:
D3:
:;
97C
$!"
#!"
!"
!()"
!(%"
!(*"
!(&"
!(+"
'"
-./0102/3"45.647"8549:;"<4:="8/1.":>154?/0:71"
'('"
'(#"
'(,"
'($"
@10=/.5;"45.647"8549:;"-257/49:'""
'()"
!)1"%'2"1"2'''
'(%"
'(*"
3&4%"./"',5"#"%/0'
@10=/.5;"45.647"8549:;"-257/49:#""
Figure 17: Example of graph showing the evolution of water level increase in rivers in response of
extreme rainfall events according to 2 IPCC scenarios
New maps of sensitivity can then be elaborated integrating those new results.
!"#$%&'()*+,%$#-./012%
33345.647896.49"$:4$0/%%
!"#$%%&'#(%)*#
+,-.#'&,/.0#
1233#'4.560,%'#47%,4.#
89.5$'#',-:&6;%5#(%)#*#########<0.=:.54>########,5$.5',$>#############,-?64$'#
Figure 18: Example of graphs showing a rain floods simulation and a simulation of future sensitivity of
water resources to climate changes in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, Uruguay
8
ArcSWAT is an interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, public domain model developed at the
USDA. See swatmodel.tamu.edu/
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
19 | P a g e
Adaptive capacity and possibilities
Adaptive capacity in Uruguay and particularly in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo is high. Being
one of the eight countries in Latin America that have a HDI superior to 0.8, 40th on 173 in the world
list, Uruguay has the third highest level of life of Latin America (after Argentina and Chile) and one of
the highest level of education of the world. This country has also been the first one of Latin America
to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Their capacity to cope with climate changes is thus significant and their
high urban planning capacity, their well managed agricultural sector open to innovation, their high
scientific level in hydrological sciences and their well organised disaster response mechanisms
illustrate their adaptation potential.
The exposure and sensitivity studies and maps have highlighted the issues at stake considering the
vulnerability of water resources and uses in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo.
Several adaptation strategies appear possible in view of the territorial assets and can be mapped:
• improve the control of water e.g. diversify the catchment points and sources
• manage the Rio de la Plata evacuation and the Rio Santa Lucía estuary e.g. protection,
sanctuarisation
• integrate and propose a more global management of the water basins (including industries,
agriculture, ecosystems) with sustainable direct actions e.g. filtration, buffer coastal zone and buffer
banks, protected sensible zones, more cautious agricultural practices in terms of potentially polluting
inputs, …
• diversification: importation, cautious urbanisation development: deconcentration towards burgs,
decentralisation of urban poles towards peripheral areas, other sources of water, …
Figure 19: Adaptive possibilities of water resources and uses in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo,
Uruguay.
Considering the six points highlighted in the sensitivity map, six adaptive strategies can be identified
and proposed:
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
20 | P a g e
1. Implementation of a council managing the area at the watershed level, to control the agricultural
and urban impacts on water quantity and quality
• This council should be gathering all private and publics actors involved in activities and sectors
linked to the water systems : industries, agriculture, public authorities, representative of professionel
organisations, association of citizens, scientific bodies ... Its members belong to the municipal and
economical sectors and the communities and governments. It is a concertation place where all
actors can express and debate around their choice and ideas.
• It is a organism in charge of planning and coordination actions in terms of water management
(quantity and quality). It promotes an integrated water management and the realization of a
Integrated Water Plan, by consulting the population and seeking local expertise.
• The council helps the coordination of all activities related to water resources in a preventive way. But
incentive instruments and actions should be developed according to each actor and sector impacts
on water resources.
• Monitoring and evaluation systems should be developed, adapted and implemented according to
resources and needs defined by the council in order to precisely monitor pollution changes that
jeopardize the single drinkable water pump station.
• The council promotes, supports and organises, in partnerships, all activities and projects of
education and awareness raising relative to the sustainability of the environment.
2. Promotion of more cautious agricultural practices and of buffer zones
• Scientific and technical knowledge on environmentally sustainable agriculture should be supported
such as on the role of chemicals, the impacts of agricultural practices and tillage, irrigation practices,
the consequences of crop rotation, crop species selection, uses of new technologies, interaction
with other non agricultural land (e.g. wetlands, buffer zones).
• Awareness raising workshops or conferences involving all actors in relation with agriculture
(producers and consumers) and exchange of experiences and practices should be encouraged
through experimental farms visit or field campains.
• Impacts of agriculture, evolution of agriculture and above all land use changes should be more
precisely monitored and evaluated according to resources/needs and impacts. In this frame, it
should rely on new technologies that answer sustainable development requirements (e.g. carbon
cost, financial and economical cost).
• Development and implementation of incentive instruments could be promoted according to
environmental impacts of agricultural practices.
3. Protection of the sensitive ecological zones and increasing the buffer role of the mixed zones
• Implementation of protected areas according to their ecological sensitivity and their environmental
role, after having consulted the population and all actors involved, should be promoted and
supported.
• Working groups and networks of local actors should be developed/supported and actions on
biodiversity monitoring could be undertaken, based on the implemented protected areas. In parallel,
monitoring and evaluation systems should be developed at a larger extent according to
environmental characteristics/indicators and relying on new sustainable technologies.
• Awareness raising, education and communication programmes around the conservation of such
ecological sanctuary should be encouraged and the environmental, cultural, social and economical
services that these ecosystems provide to the population and the territory should be highlighted.
• Development and implementation of incentive instruments could be promoted according to
environmental impacts on those ecological areas.
4. Better communication and coordination between countries involved in the management of the Rio
de la Plata basin (sediments pollution)
• It should be promoted the exchange of information on experiences, actions and instruments or
practices through workshops, conferences or field campains.
• It should be supported the development of interface platforms between scientific, technical and
operational actors.
• Prospective studies on the Rio de la Plata collective basin behaviours should be developed on
transversal issues such as impacts of deforestation, impacts of land use changes, impacts on
sediment loading, or impacts on pollution on the river profiles.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
21 | P a g e
5. Better control of water and diversification of catchment points and sources
• Coordination between actors and actions should be organised and promoted, based on existing
management council or other institutional structures.
• Prospective studies on water needs and resources and studies on potential alternative sources of
water or catchments should be supported, and circulation of this information encouraged.
• Monitoring&Evaluation systems should be developed, adapted and implemented according to
resources/needs and impacts on other systems (e.g. ecosystems, geomorphology). In particular, it
should rely on new technologies that answer sustainable development requirements (e.g. carbon
cost, financial and economical cost).
• It should be promoted in partnerships, all activities and projects of education, communication and
awareness raising relative to the sustainability of water resources and the present and future threats
both in terms of quality and quantity.
• Development and implementation of incentive instruments in coordination with the management
council policies.
6. Development of wider networks of satellite towns with diversified water resources
• Implementation of a working group gathering the municipal and economical sectors and the
communities and governments of the territory.
• It should be promoted the elaboration and implementation of development plans including new
towns planning in a collaborative working scheme.
• Prospective studies on water needs and resources and studies on potential alternative sources of
water or catchments should be supported in strong collaboration with urban planning prospective
studies, and circulation of this information encouraged.
• Monitoring&Evaluation systems should be implemented according to resources and needs. In
particular, it should rely on new technologies that answer sustainable development requirements
(e.g. carbon cost, financial and economical cost).
• It should be promoted in partnerships, all activities and projects of education, communication and
awareness raising relative to the sustainability of water resources and their present and future
threats both in terms of quality and quantity
Research and Development opportunities
The several steps of the analysis of the vulnerability of water resources and uses to climate change,
in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay, have revealed some important but fragmented
existing scientific knowledge and expertise but also some areas where information appears very light
or inexistent.
Work in Progress
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
22 | P a g e
Next steps
The next territorial assets that will be studied and their climate change vulnerabilities assessed and
mapped are :
• agriculture and food security
• coastal environment
• health and population
Below are presented the main steps for the assessment and mapping of the agricultural systems
climate change vulnerabilities for the Metropolitan area of Montevideo.
Agriculture and food production facing climate changes
In the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay, 70% of the population food needs are covered by
the hinterland. Therefore, this territory is strongly dependant on its agriculture: this is positive because
this make the territory close to its food self-sufficiency and it limits the transportation costs and related
GHG emissions, but at the same time, it emphasises the degree of vulnerability of the population.
Furthermore, the demographic growth and the energetic trends increase its degree of exposure.
!"#$"%;'()"%
!"#$"%&'()"%*"$+,%-".)#%
()1+.%
:0".$;)#+%
:+,+";.5%<".$',+.%
/0,1(';$',+5%.0B"5%
4"),8%)#4'.$,)+.%
9".$',+.5%60,+.$%
(0#.0AA"10#%
9".$',+.5%(+,+";.5%%
0$@+,%%7",)0'.%(,0<.%%
(0#.0AA"10#%
="$+,%
/0,12%3",4+#5%6,')$5%7)#+8",4.%
>,-"#%)#?'+#(+2%
<0;;'$"#$.%"#4%("$(@A+#$.%
C'#(10#)#32% .8.$+A.% "$% .$"D+% 2% -)3% $8<+.% 06% "3,)(';$',";%
.8.$+A.5%?'E%-+$=++#%(0A<0#+#$.
%
Work in Progress
Figure 20: Agriculture and food production in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo, Uruguay
Exposure of agriculture and food production
This map shows the main exposed components considering agriculture and food production territorial
assets: water, urbanisation, inputs, energy, relation between the various agricultural areas and their
yields.
B")#"&93'4"&
'4,$*&
8("*#94)$&
8$%$"9*1&:"*#3%$*&
-(%,'39#3%$1&*(;"1&
0"4%6&4)03*#%4$*&
7"*#3%$*1&2(%$*#&
'()*(++",()&
7"*#3%$*1&'$%$"9*1&
(#<$%&5"%4(3*&'%(:*&&
'()*(++",()&
!"#$%&
-(%,.&/"%0$)1&2%34#1&54)$6"%0*&
=%>")&4)?3$)'$.&
:(993#")#*&")0&'"#'<+$)#*&
@4$901&!"#$%1&$)$%/4$*1&#%")*:(%#1&$A#%$+$&$5$)#*&
Work in Progress
Figure 21: Exposure of agriculture and food production to climate changes in the Metropolitan area of
Montevideo, Uruguay
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
23 | P a g e
Sensitivity of the agriculture and food production
The long term climate change trends could emphasise the seasonal variation i.e. more rainy winter
and drier summer. Therefore the cereal and fodder productions could be severely impacted. Besides,
more frequent and intense extreme events such as floods, droughts or storms could certainly induce
much more damage to the production in the short and long terms.
(to be detailed)
B+:"'#&()&#=$&'$%$"9&
'39#3%$&64$90*&
8("*#94)$&
E%(!4)/&0$+")0&4)&
!"#$%&")0&$)$%/6&
'4,$*&
D%(*4()1&0$*#%3',()1&(2&
>")#"&93'4"&
*(49*&1&+(%$&4%%$/39"%&
!"#$%&*3::96&
8$%$"9*1&:"*#3%$*&
8$%
8$%$"9
-(%,'39#3%$1&*(;"1&
,'39#3
%6&4)0
%6&
4)0
0"4%6&4)03*#%4$*&
?")0&:%(@9$+&03$&#(&
3%@")&*:%$"04)/&
4)'9304)/&"%,A'4"94*",()&
(2&9")0*&")0&/%(!4)/&
0$+")0&4)&$)$%/6&
7"*#3%$*1&2(%$*#&
'()*(++",()&
7"*#3%$*1&'$%$"9*1&&
<#=$%&5"%4(3*&'%(:*&
'()*(++",()&
!"#$%&
B)'%$"*$&4%%4/",()&&()&
:"*#3%$*&")0&'=")/$**&4)&
2((0&:%"','$*&(2&
945$*#('C&
-(%,.&/"%0$)1&2%34#1&54)6"%0*&
F%@")&4)G3$)'$.&
:(993#")#*&")0&'"#'=+$)#*&
Work in Progress
Figure 22: Sensitivity of agriculture and food production to climate changes in the Metropolitan area of
Montevideo, Uruguay
Crop dependence on climate is highly significant. Indeed, the crop calendar (planting to harvest date)
is completely determined by those climate variables:
-the temperature at planting
-the precipitation at planting
-the precipitation over the potential evapotranspiration at planting
-the accumulated growing degree days between the planting and harvest dates
This set of data can be synthesised and adapted for every region of the world and for every crop.
For instance, winter barley, an important cereal in Uruguay, is usually planted around July when the
average temperature reaches 12°C, the average precipitation 90 mm and the precipitation over the
potential evapotranspiration 1.2. Winter barley growth is based on 1750°C days during approximately
170 days so that harvest is achieved around December.
Figure 23: Crop calendar for Winter Barley, in Uruguay (Source SAGE, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
24 | P a g e
For every crop of the area of interest, zones can then be highlighted where those conditions fit
according to the present climate. (related to the Agroecological zones methodology9 )
In a second time, integrating the probable future spatial organisation of the climate variables through
two or three IPCC scenarios will allow to build a map where will be visualised the adapted crop zones
and their spatial changes compared to the present ones.
@")#"&83'4"&
'4,$*&
?("*#84)$&
?$%$"8*1&;"*#3%$*&
-(%,'38#3%$1&*(9"1&
0"4%6&4)03*#%4$*&
7"*#3%$*1&2(%$*#&
'()*(++",()&
7"*#3%$*1&'$%$"8*1&
7"*#3%$*1&'$%$"8*1&
(#:$%&5"%4(3*&'%(;*&
& &
(#:$%&5"%4(3*&'%(;*&
'()*(++",()&
!"#$%&
-(%,.&/"%0$)1&2%34#1&54)$6"%0*&
<%=")&4)>3$)'$.&
;(883#")#*&")0&'"#':+$)#*&
Work in Progress
Figure 24: Sensitivity of crop zoning to climate change in the Metropolitan area of Uruguay
Furthermore, agricultural models exist and allow simulating the impacts of climate or other parameters
changes on crop yields and their consequences on social and economical related systems10.
Work in Progress
Adaptive capacity and possibilities
The adaptive capacity of Uruguay is high as highlighted is the 3.3. point.
The agriculture and food production system has a strategic role in this territory but could be severely
impacted by climate changes as the exposure and sensitivity maps have illustrated.
Possible adaptation strategies can be proposed and mapped:
-promote more cautious agricultural practices e.g. less dependent on inputs
-consolidation of urban poles network more than concentration of urban activities
-limit the hold of residential zones on the potentially cultivable lands
-promote the managing of the agricultural systems at the water basin scales
Research and Development opportunities
The several steps of the analysis of the vulnerability of agriculture and food production to climate
change, in the Metropolitan area of Montevideo in Uruguay, have revealed some important but
fragmented existing scientific knowledge and expertise but also some areas where information
appears very light or inexistent.
Work in Progress
9
http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adaptation/application/pdf/aez__agroecological_zones__methodology.pdf
10
See for instance the IIASA 2002 study: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
under United Nations Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113 on “Climate Change and Agricultural
Vulnerability”.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009
25 | P a g e
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
26 | P a g e
Bibliography
Selected references for the Uruguayan case study/water resources vulnerabilities to climate change:
-Agenda Metropolitana, 2007. Libro blanco del area Metropolitana, Canelones, Montevideo, San José (2007).
-Anton, D.J., 1993. Thirsty cities, Urban Environments and Water supply in Latin America.
-Bidegain, M., 2009. Escenarios de cambio climatico sobre Uruguay y downscaling. Universidad de la República
-Facultad de Ciencias Uruguay. Lectures from the Adaptación al Cambio Climático y Escenarios Climáticos y
Medidas de Adaptación conference, February 2009, Buenos Aires.
-Bidegain, M., 2009. Implementacion de medidas piloto de adaptacion al cambio climatico en areas costeras del
Uruguay, informes N°1, 2, 3. Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica de Montevideo.-Edmeades, S.,
2008. Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture. Uruguay Country Note. World Bank, December 2008.
-Centre de Recherches pour le Développement International!: Villes tributaires de l’eau de surface. Montevideo
et le sud de l’Uruguay. http://www.idrc.ca/fr/ev-29703-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
-Freplata!: Proyecto Proteccion Ambiental del Rio de la Plata y su Frente Maritimo, Prevencion y Control de la
Contaminacion y Restauracion de Habitats. http://www.freplata.org/
-Giménez, A. Castaño, J.P. Olivera, L. Furest, J.Martino, D. Romero, R. Magrin,G. Travasso, M. Rodríguez, G.
Cunha, G. Fernandes, M. Pires, J.L. Baethgen , W. Meinke, H., ?. Cambio Climático en Uruguay y la Región.
INIA (Uruguay) – INTA (Argentina) – EMBRAPA (Brasil)-IFDC (USA) – APSRU (Australia): Proyecto AIACC TWAS.
-Hareau, A. Hofstadter, R. Saizar, A., 1999. Vulnerability to climate change in Uruguay: potential impacts on the
agricultural and coastal resource sectors and response capabilities. In Climate Research Vol. 12: 185–193, 1999.
-Lazo, J.M., 2009. La cartografia para el sistema nacional de emergencias de Uruguay. Servicio Geografico
Militar de Uruguay.
-Marengo, J.A. ,?. Climate Change in La Plata Basin. CPTEC/INPE, São Paulo, Brazil.
-Magrin, G.O., ?. Scenarios of Climate Change Projected for the Pampas Region of Argentina, Brazil and
Uruguay (No. LA27) (INTA, Argentina)
-OECD, 2004. Development and climate change in Uruguay: focus on coastal zones, agriculture and forestry.
Environment directorate, environment policy committee. Working party on global and structural policies. Working
party on development cooperation and environment. OECD, Paris.
-Paskoff, R., 1998. Conséquences possibles sur les milieux littoraux de l’élévation du niveau de la mer prévu
pour les prochaines décennies. Annales de géographie, Année 1998, Volume 107, Numéro 600.
-Panariol, D. Bidegain, M., 1997. Climate change effects on grasslands in Uruguay. In Climate Research Vol. 9:
37-40. 1997.
-Ramos Mañé C, Giordano S, Víctora C (1998) Development of climate change action plans in Uruguay. Final
report of the second phase of the Uruguay Climate Change Country Study. Comisión Nacional sobre el Cambio
Global, Montevideo, Uruguay.
-Re, M. Menendez, A.N., 2006. IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN LAS COSTAS DEL RÍO DE LA PLATA. In
Rev. Int. de Desastres Naturales, Accidentes e Infraestructura Civil. Vol. 7(1) 25.
-UNDP, 2007. Uruguay: el cambio climatico aquí y ahora. Material de divulgación. Material Complementario del
Informe Mundial sobre Desarollo Humano 2007-2008.
ClimSAT – Uruguay case study – December 2009!
!
27 | P a g e