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ENVSCI 1829 No. of Pages 10
Environmental Science & Policy xxx (2016) xxx–xxx
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Environmental Science & Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci
Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation
Karen L. Akerlofa,* ,1, Katherine E. Rowanb , Todd La Portec, Brian K. Battend ,
Howard Ernste , Dann M. Sklarewa
a
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, USA
Department of Communication, George Mason University, USA
School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs, George Mason University, USA
d
Dewberry, USA
e
Political Science Department, U.S. Naval Academy, USA
b
c
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 30 January 2016
Received in revised form 28 June 2016
Accepted 5 July 2016
Available online xxx
Keywords:
Sea level rise
Risk perception
Deliberation
Communication
Public opinion
Climate adaptation
A B S T R A C T
To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it
has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378).
We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise
discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized
beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards
also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks
to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and,
among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased
problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation
focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural
worldviews on decision-making.
ã 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Discussions of adaptation responses to climate change have
only recently begun appearing in Americans’ public discourse
(Moser, 2012, 2009). Some have cautioned these efforts could be
forestalled if cast within the same politically charged context as
greenhouse gas emission reductions (Kates, 1997; Moser, 2012;
Moser and Luers, 2008). Nevertheless, a wide range of adaptation
approaches are underway (Hoss et al., 2014; Markolf et al., 2015;
Woodruff and Stults, 2016). Emerging research examines how the
public views these measures, particularly at the local scales of
likely implementation (Canfield et al., 2015; Carrico et al., 2015;
Howe, 2011; Javeline, 2014; Moser, 2014). Of these studies, a subset
specifically address public engagement on sea level rise (SLR) (Covi
and Kain, 2015; Kahan, 2015; MacInnis et al., 2015; Moser, 2013;
Wong-Parodi and Fischhoff, 2015), one of the effects of climate
change raising significant societal concerns (Hinkel et al., 2015).
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (K.L. Akerlof).
1
Present address: Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason
University, USA.
In adaptation planning, communication among decisionmakers, technical experts, stakeholders and the public about
impacts and solutions can influence efforts at all levels; moreover,
unsuccessful communication can become a barrier to policy
adoption (Hurlimann et al., 2014; Moser and Ekstrom, 2010).
Conflicting cultural worldviews about how society should function—e.g., prioritization of individual freedoms versus the collective good—generate miscommunication and disagreement about
policy goals (Greene, 2013), contributing to dissension over climate
change risks (Kahan, 2012a).
This study aims to assess factors influencing public opinion on
SLR risks at a local level and evaluate roles for public engagement
to advance community decision-making for climate adaptation.
We first tested whether cultural worldviews influence public
perceptions of SLR risks at three geographic scales: home,
neighborhood, and county. We subsequently investigated whether
a community deliberative event providing scientific background,
and localized impact and policy information would lessen the
influence of cultural worldviews, and consequently decrease issue
polarization. County-level SLR inundation and flooding projections
were prepared for this project (Dewberry, 2012), then incorporated
into the event and analyses.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
1462-9011/ã 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
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1.1. Study location
Anne Arundel County, Maryland, lies within the heavily
urbanized Northeast “megalopolis” (Gottmann, 1961), just 10
miles east of Washington, D.C., and directly south of Baltimore. Its
shoreline sits along the northwest border of the Chesapeake Bay.
The rate of SLR in the region is about a quarter of a centimeter a
year (Boon et al., 2010), among the highest on the Atlantic Coast,
and appears to be accelerating (Sallenger et al., 2012). This
contributes to the severity of storm surges, inland extension of the
coastal floodplain, and future permanent inundation (Boon, 2006;
Maryland Commission on Climate Change, 2008). Under moderate
rates of relative SLR, more than 8 square kilometers of the county
could be submerged by 2050 (Batten, 2012). By 2100, that number
could double, and projected storm surges and tidal inundation
places $1.5 billion in building values alone at risk.
1.2. Public perceptions of SLR risk
Risk perceptions about climate change have been studied
worldwide for three decades (Capstick et al., 2015; Klima, 2016;
Nisbet and Myers, 2007; Taylor et al., 2014). Fewer surveys
specifically focus on SLR perceptions (GfK Custom Research North
America, 2013; Responsive Management, 2014, 2010). One national
survey found that most in the U.S. believe global warming will
cause SLR (73%) and that it will be a serious problem (76%) (GfK
Custom Research North America, 2013). If climate change is an
arguably intangible threat for people (Weber, 2006), SLR might be
easier to grasp given its visible legacy of increasing waterlines
upon shores, dunes, docks, and other coastal infrastructure. Thus
our research question:
RQ: Do county residents recognize SLR is occurring, and if so, how
do they characterize its risk?
1.3. Cultural theory and Cultural Cognition
Cultural theories of risk perception hold that individuals
identify threats according to views of the group culture with
which they identify (Tansey and Rayner, 2009). Cross-culturally,
groups at varying scales—from tribes to nations—can be characterized by certain belief traits, e.g., whether some individuals
should have more power than others according to status
(hierarchy) or whether individual preferences should take precedence over those of the collective (individualism) (Douglas, 1970;
Hofstede, 1983; Kahan, 2012b). Anthropologist Mary Douglas’
(1978, 1992) original conceptualization of cultural theory holds
that risks are socially construed as perceived harm to the way of life
of a group, including its moral values and functional integrity, and
do not necessarily reflect objective characteristics of danger, such
as probability and severity.
This study uses a psychometric operationalization of cultural
theory, Cultural Cognition (Kahan, 2012b). Its thesis—and a related
earlier theorization (Dake, 1991)—has been controversial in its
conversion of an anthropological theory about groups to a
psychological measure of worldviews with highly American
political overtones (Sjoberg, 1998; van der Linden, 2016).
Nonetheless, its scales of hierarchy and individualism have proven
better than political ideology for predicting Americans’ risk
perceptions across an array of controversial policies, from gun
control to climate change (Kahan et al., 2007).
The Cultural Cognition scales of hierarchy-egalitarianism and
individualism-communitarianism function as predictive factors in
risk perception models placing individuals within four “group and
grid” quadrants, per Fig. 1 (Kahan, 2012b). The individualism scale
captures views about government’s role in balancing the rights of
the individual versus the good of society. The hierarchy scale
Fig. 1. Placing individuals within cultural worldviews based on Cultural Cognition’s
hierarchy and individualism scales.
measures views about whether greater equality should be
promoted across income levels, racial groups, gender, and sexual
preference groups.
Douglas and Wildavsky (1983) argued polarized societal
perspectives on risks arise from the opposing worldviews of
egalitarian solidarists and hierarchical individualists over the
degree of regulation of commerce and industry required to
maintain balance between individual freedoms and the collective
good. However, identifying risks as a collective threat does not
occur in all, or even most, public policy matters (Kahan, 2010).
Public responses to low salience issues—e.g., nanotechnology and
cell phone radio waves—are not explained by differing worldviews
(Kahan, 2015).
Because of the association of SLR with climate change, we
hypothesized:
H1. (a) Respondents’ worldviews will explain a significant amount
of variance in risk perceptions of SLR and inundation; (b) hierarchy
and individualism will inversely correlate with SLR risk perceptions.
1.4. Detection of physical risks in the environment
We also geospatially assessed flood exposure to compare
objective measures’ to cultural worldviews’ influence on perceptions of SLR threats. Notably, Brody et al. (2008) measured the
influence of sea-level physical risk variables on perceived climate
change risk to the respondents’ health, finances, and physical
environment. Vulnerability to SLR and coastal proximity were
statistically significant in predicting these risk perceptions at the
individual scale.
Still, cultural filters play a complex role in which threats are
signified, and by whom. Recent work suggests the effects of
proximity on risk perceptions can be mediated by other factors
(e.g., nature of the hazard, cultural cognition, spatial scale).
Goebbert et al. (2012) found political ideology and cultural
worldviews predicted weather perceptions, but measures of actual
weather change were only partially predictive (i.e., of flooding and
drought, not of temperatures). The authors concluded that
perceptions of local weather changes incorporate direct observation, ideology and cultural cognition. Moreover, Ruddell et al.
(2012) found that scale was a factor in perceptions of neighborhood versus regional temperatures in Phoenix, Arizona. At the
neighborhood level, perceptions of temperature changes were
more strongly related to modeled temperature data, while at the
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
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3
regional level, they were more strongly associated with social
frames of reference, including gender, ethnicity and political
conservatism.
Based on the findings of Ruddell et al. we hypothesized:
experienced mixed success (Canfield et al., 2015; Hobson and
Niemeyer, 2011).
We hypothesized that deliberation may moderate cultural
factors influencing individuals’ evaluation of risks, specifically:
H2. (a) Respondents’ exposure to coastal flooding and inundation
threats will explain a significant amount of variance in risk
perceptions of SLR and inundation; (b) risk exposure will be a
stronger factor in perceptions at smaller spatial scales.
H3. (a) SLR knowledge and risk perceptions will increase among
deliberation participants; (b) differences in risk perceptions
between subjects with competing worldviews (egalitarian solidarist and hierarchical individualist) will diminish due to the
deliberative session.
1.5. Deliberation
2. Methods
Recently, practitioners have focused on social components of
climate change vulnerability assessment and broad stakeholder
involvement in decision-making (Burton and Mustelin, 2011;
Moser and Ekstrom, 2010; NRC, 2010). Yet, little evaluation of
public engagement efforts for climate adaptation exists (Burton
and Mustelin, 2011). As the National Academies (NRC, 2008) and
others have commented (Carpini et al., 2004; Cobb, 2011), there
has been very little experimental or quasi-experimental research
on the conditions for success.
Most pertinent research has used deliberative polls (Fishkin and
Luskin, 2005). Probability samples are first used to assess the
opinions of the population. Next, those polled are invited to a
deliberative session where experts speak and attendees discuss
issue-related material in small groups. Finally, deliberative session
attendees are re-surveyed. Thus, deliberative sessions can be
structured into quasi-experimental tests of psychometric and
small-group variables (Farrar et al., 2010; List et al., 2013). Though
critics of deliberative forums say they are disconnected from actual
decision-making, unrepresentative, and too infrequent to be
relevant, the benefits accorded to collective deliberation is long,
similar to those attributed to public participation generally
(Carpini et al., 2004). These include:
increases in citizen engagement in public affairs;
increases in tolerance of other viewpoints;
gains in understanding of their own preferences and abilities for
argumentation;
realization of social interdependence;
faith in democratic processes;
more considered and informed political decisions; and
growth of social capital.
Deliberative events feature small-group discussions. Typically,
participants are placed randomly into these groups to ensure
representation of diverse views (Fishkin and Luskin, 2005).
Hearing and arguing for various policy options are believed to
stimulate knowledge acquisition and preference changes (Barabas,
2004). Cultural cognition scholars have begun to assess how
deliberation interacts with participants’ worldviews to influence
citizens’ choices (Gastil et al., 2010). One recent study demonstrated that participation can dramatically change peoples’ views,
transcending cultural worldview biases (Gastil et al., 2016).
Within small group discussions, the dynamics of identity are
believed to determine whether individuals become more alike or
more polarized in values and preferences (Sunstein, 2002, 2000).
Sunstein (2007) states deliberation could reduce polarization on
climate change if equal numbers of group members hold opposing
viewpoints, and there are no salient differences in identity among
members. When individuals perceive themselves as similar to
other group members along some relevant dimension (political
ideology, race, gender), they give more credence to those
individuals’ arguments and are less likely to challenge their
positions. This leads to increased polarization and extremism
(Sunstein, 2007). So far, deliberation on climate change has
We pre-surveyed and invited a random sample of Anne Arundel
County residents to a community deliberative event. Participants
in the event then completed their post-survey at the event’s
culmination. The analyses here examine the survey and physical
data developed on SLR risk exposure for the project. George Mason
University and U. S. Naval Academy human subjects review boards
oversaw this research.
2.1. County survey
Between March 28 and June 19, 2012, we sent 9582 surveys to
local residents of 18 years or older (Appendix A in Supplementary
information). They returned 378 completed surveys. While
response rates below 10% are increasingly commonplace in social
science research (Keeter et al., 2006; Pew Research Center for the
People & the Press, 2012; Roser-Renouf et al., 2014), our 4%
response rate could raise questions about the potential for
nonresponse bias.
Bias can be assessed by comparing sample characteristics to
those of the population, testing for differences between early and
late waves of responders and extrapolating linear trends over time,
and contrasting the characteristics of respondents to nonrespondents on variables of relevance (Armstrong and Overton,
1977). We employed two of these tests for sample bias—a proxy
test for non-response bias and comparison of sample characteristics compared to population estimates—and an additional test to
evaluate for self-selection of respondents based on topic salience.
2.1.1. Proxy test for non-response bias
No data were available on non-respondents; however, late
survey responders can be assumed to resemble non-respondents
and function as a proxy (Lewis et al., 2013). Testing for mean
differences between the first 10% of responders and last 10% for
each of the three dependent variables, we find no statistically
significant difference; Appendix B (in Supplementary information)
elaborates.
2.1.2. Non-response error resulting from topic salience
Survey topic interest is assumed to influence non-response
rates and error (Groves et al., 2004). To test whether bias arose
from highlighting SLR and coastal flooding in the survey cover
letter, we contrasted risk perception data with a study that did not
mention the topics in the introductory materials. In spring 2014, a
statewide mail survey titled, “Healthy People, Healthy Places”
included similar SLR risk perception questions (Akerlof and
Maibach, 2014). In selecting the cases of only those 2014 Maryland
survey respondents who resided in Anne Arundel (n = 164), we
were able to compare the response frequencies by county between
the two studies. Although slight differences in question wording
could influence findings, the response distributions are remarkably
similar. For both surveys, 32% of respondents estimated SLR effects
will be significant in the county/Maryland by 2024-2025; shoreline
erosion is listed as the impact of most concern for both the county
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
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(63%) and state (65%) (Appendix C in Supplementary information).
Thus, non-response error due to topic salience is unlikely.
2.1.3. Demographic estimates compared to sample characteristics
Our countywide sample was older, more educated, and less
racially diverse than the adult county population responding to
2010 U.S. Census data and 2006–2010 American Community
Survey (Appendix D in Supplementary information). The largest
disparity was in educational attainment, then age and race.
Researchers have long obtained greater response rates from those
who are more educated, older and female (Gannon et al., 1971). The
sampled distribution for political party affiliation was 26.8%
Republican, 35.7% Democrat, 30.0% Independent and 7.6% other/no
party (Appendix E in Supplementary information). Weighting the
data to Census distributions for over-represented variables
resulted in little change in response distributions (Appendix F in
Supplementary information).
2.2. Citizens’ discussion post-survey
The Citizens’ Discussion participants were recruited during the
county survey. To obtain as representative a sample as possible, all
mailings included an invitation to the event. A subset of 41
participants from the survey attended. Post-event survey data
from one participant was dropped due to missing pre-survey data
leaving a final sample size of 40, within the range of expected
participation for such events (Luskin et al., 2002; Timotijevic and
Raats, 2007). The Citizens’ Discussion participants closely resembled non-attendees in their sea-level rise risk perceptions prior to
the event (Appendix G in Supplementary information). There were
no significant differences on five of eight SLR knowledge and risk
perception variables. The remaining three variables tested close to
95% confidence significance levels (risk to home and property,
p = 0.05; concern about impacts, p = 0.05; timing of significant
impacts to the county from SLR, p = 0.03).
The demographics of the deliberation attendees were more
diverse in terms of income and race than the county’s, and skewed
female (Appendix H in Supplementary information). The largest
differences between participants and county residents were by
education and gender. Participant’s political affiliation was
Democratic (37.5%), Independents (32.5%), Republicans (20.0%),
and other/no party (10.0%).
2.3. Components of the deliberative event
The methodology of the sampling and event was modelled on
the Fishkin and Luskin (2005) trademarked approach to deliberative polling. In the weeks prior to the April 28, 2012, Citizens’
Discussion, participants of the pre-survey who agreed to attend
received event information and background materials. During
event registration, participants were randomly assigned to small
groups for discussion and use of the online coastal flooding and SLR
viewer (Appendix I in Supplementary information). Trained
facilitators led the discussion at each of eight tables. Facilitators
ensured all participants in group discussions expressed their
views, that the briefing materials were reviewed, and that groups
generated pertinent questions for the expert panelists during two
plenaries: one focused on science and impacts, and another on
potential policy strategies for local governments (Appendix J in
Supplementary information).
2.4. Questionnaire measures and risk exposure variables
The 41 questions in the pre-survey and 56 in the post-survey
addressed risk perceptions of coastal flooding and SLR, topic
knowledge and beliefs, policy preferences for coastal areas within
the county, and political efficacy (Akerlof, 2012). This paper focuses
on risk perception results. Project geospatial data consisting of
county-level SLR inundation and flooding mapping along with
building exposure formed the risk exposure variables (Dewberry,
2012).
2.4.1. Demographic, political affiliation and ideology measures
Demographic questions—age, gender, race, ethnicity, income,
education—were used in the pre-survey to compare with U.S.
Census Bureau data, and as control variables in regression analyses.
Respondents were asked both their political affiliation (categorical
variable) and political ideology (seven-point scale from very liberal
to very conservative).
2.4.2. Measures of coastal flooding and SLR risk perceptions and beliefs
Both instruments included measures of risk perceptions across
geographic and temporal scales and assessed impacts most
concerning residents. The first survey question asked residents
whether coastal flooding was an increasing problem for the county.
Questions followed about whether the respondent believed that
SLR is occurring, and if so, when its effects would significantly
impact the county and which effects were of most concern. The
final risk perception queries had the respondent rate the risk of
severe flooding from SLR at scales including their own home or
property, their neighborhood, and their county.
2.4.3. Knowledge measures
To assess Anne Arundel County resident knowledge about SLR—
its causes, historical levels, and rate of change—respondents were
asked on both instruments to agree or disagree with five
statements using a five-point scale (Appendix K in Supplementary
information). The five items were summed into a scale.
2.4.4. Worldview measures
Worldviews were assessed with six items each for the Cultural
Cognition hierarchy and individualism scales (Appendices L–N in
Supplementary information) (Kahan, 2012b). A principal component analysis of the 12 measures derives two components; the
resulting factor scores form the scale measures representing latent
constructs used in multivariate analyses and to identify members
of the four cultural worldviews as they fall across the group and
grid, relative to median values (Fig. 1).
2.4.5. Inundation and flood risk exposure [geospatial analyses]
SLR risk assessments conducted for the project included the
current and projected inundation and floodplain extent, change in
relative flood probability, potential structural damage and a
relative risk classification for individual properties at three rates
of SLR and four time slices (2012, 2050, 2075, 2100) (Dewberry,
2012). Two scenarios are utilized for the purposes of the analyses
here: 2012 and 2075 with a projected relative sea-level rise gain of
approximately 0.6 m from 2012. The risk assessments were
geocoded to survey participant addresses using ArcGIS 10.2.
Permanent inundation was defined as areas at or below the
elevation of the mean higher high water datum (MHHW) tidal
datum. Elevations below this datum are expected to be “wetted” by
the highest daily tide. Coastal flooding was defined as the FEMA
Special Flood Hazard Area, or elevations equal to or less than the
100-yr coastal floodplain. Buildings subject to inundation were
assumed to become uninhabitable and were attributed as “lost,”
whereas buildings subject to coastal flooding were evaluated for
percent damage through depth-damage analysis. Building value
exposure was evaluated against the Maryland State Department of
Planning “MD Property View” dataset for Anne Arundel County.
The measures of flooding and inundation risk by Census Block
Group (CBG) are highly correlated (Fig. 2; Appendices O–Q in
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
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Fig. 2. Projections for SLR impacts by 2075 by CBGs in Anne Arundel County, Maryland: (a) percent of floodplain; (b) percent of land within mean higher high water; (c)
building value at risk within mean higher high water.
Supplementary information). A principal components analysis
reduced the initial six variables—both current (2012) and future
(2075) percent exposure of CBG to (1) 100-year floodplain, (2)
inundation at or below MHHW, and (3) total building value at risk—
to scores for two components. The resulting scores used within the
analyses respectively represent flooding and inundation risk, and
building value loss due to projected inundation (Appendix Q in
Supplementary information). Individual household risk assessment values are not utilized because of the low frequency of survey
participant properties in the 100-year floodplain or within MHHW.
2.5. Analysis of comparative influence of worldview and risk exposure
on threat perception
To address the first two hypotheses regarding the influence of
cultural cognition on risk perceptions for SLR at three spatial
scales, compared to risk assessment data, we performed blockwise
hierarchical regression using risk perceptions at the home or
property, neighborhood, and county level as the dependent
variables (Table 1). Demographics, SLR risk, political affiliation,
political ideology, and cultural worldviews served as the predictor
variables (Table 2). All analyses were conducted using SPSS v. 20.
solidarists—narrowed following the deliberative event. This was
tested using a single-tailed analysis of the absolute value of the
difference between the values of the pre-survey item means for
hierarchical individualists and egalitarian solidarists, compared to
the same statistics in the post-survey: D|pre,post-surveys| = |
Mpre1 Mpre2| |Mpos1 Mpos2|. Taking the absolute values of
the differences between the means makes it difficult to render
standard errors for the statistic, and thus generate estimates of
statistical significance. To overcome this problem, using R
(Appendix R in Supplementary information) we employed two
methods to create one-tailed significance estimates.
The first method assumed that the statistic has approximately a
normal distribution and bases an approximate p-value on a z-score.
In the second method, bootstrap replicates of the statistic were
centered to create an approximately null distribution, and the
proportion of replications in which the centered bootstrapped
statistic is greater than the observed value of the statistic was
calculated. Both methods returned almost identical p-values. A
final set of analyses using t-tests explored which groups
significantly changed across risk perception measures following
the deliberative event.
3. Results
2.6. Analysis of effects of deliberative event on risk perceptions
3.1. SLR risk perceptions
Designating Citizens’ Discussion participants as hierarchical
individualists, egalitarian solidarists, egalitarian individualists, and
hierarchical communitarians (Appendix N in Supplementary
information), we analyzed whether the absolute mean values
between worldview groups with the most diametrical opinions on
environmental risk—hierarchical individualists and egalitarian
The countywide survey revealed that Anne Arundel residents
are aware of local SLR and increased coastal flooding, but uncertain
when impacts will become significant (Appendix S in Supplementary information). A majority of county residents (60.4%) said that
SLR is occurring and (54.3%) that coastal flooding has become a
Table 1
Characteristics of dependent variables (regression analyses). How would you describe the risk of more severe flooding from sea-level rise over the next 40 years to...
Don't know (Coded missing)
SLR risk perceptions
a. the county generally
b. your neighborhood
c. your home or property
7.6%
6.0%
6.8%
No risk (1)
Very little risk
(2)
Some risk (3)
High risk
(4)
M
3.0%
18.75
28.26
10.1%
36.4%
39.7%
46.7%
29.6%
19.3%
32.6%
9.2%
6.0%
3.18
2.31
2.03
SD
0.75
0.90
0.88
n = 368.
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
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Table 2
Characteristics of independent variables (regression analyses).
Variable coding
M
SD
Demographics
Female [yes (1); no (0)]
Non-white [yes (1); no (0)]
Age [continuous]
Education [less than high school (1) to completed a graduate or professional degree (6)]
Income [less than $25,000 (1) to $150,000+ (6)]
0.54
0.14
52.61
4.68
3.96
0.50
0.35
15.04
1.33
1.44
SLR risk
Flood and MHHW property risk scores
MHHW property value risk scores
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Political affiliation
Democrat [yes (1); no (0)]
Republican [yes (1); no (0)]
0.36
0.27
0.48
0.44
Political ideology
Political ideology [very liberal (1) to very conservative (7)]
4.07
1.53
Cultural worldviews
Hierarchy scale
Individualism scale
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
n = 368.
greater problem in recent years. County residents are most
concerned about shoreline erosion (64.6%), followed by private
property damage or loss (59.3%), habitat loss (54.8%), and public
infrastructure damage or loss (52.6%). However, most residents are
uncertain when SLR will significantly impact the county. Almost a
third (29.4%) said they don’t know. One in eight (12.5%) said that
effects already have had significant impact.
3.2. Predictors of SLR risk perceptions
As hypothesized, both risk exposure and cultural worldviews
are predictors of SLR risk perceptions (H1(a) and H2(a)), hierarchy
and individualism inversely correlate with perceived SLR risk (H1
(b)), and the effect of risk exposure diminishes at larger spatial
scales of risk perception (H2(b)). Regressing risk perceptions
specified at three spatial scales onto the same set of independent
Table 3
Predictors of SLR risk perception at three spatial scales.
Dependent variables: SLR risks to ...
Demographics
Female
Non-white
Age
Education
Income
SLR risk
Flood and MHHW property risk scores
MHHW property value risk scores
Political affiliation
Democrat
Republican
County (n = 340)
Neighborhood (n = 346)
Own home or property (n = 343)
b
b
b
[95% CI]
[95% CI]
[95% CI]
0.11*
[0.02, 0.20]
0.07
[ 0.17, 0.02]
0.05
[ 0.03, 0.15]
0.03
[ 0.14, 0.07]
0.06
[ 0.05, 0.15]
0.06
[ 0.05, 0.16]
0.04
[ 0.15, 0.06]
0.05
[ 0.14, 0.05]
0.02
[ 0.13, 0.08]
0.04
[ 0.15, 0.07]
0.10^
[0,0.20]
0.00
[ 0.12, 0.1]
0.05
[ 0.15, 0.05]
0.04
[ 0.16, 0.07]
0.03
[ 0.14, 0.09]
0.07
[ 0.01, 0.15]
0.05
[ 0.22, 0.1]
0.39***
[0.28, 0.51]
0.09*
[0.04, 0.29]
0.32***
[0.21, 0.44]
0.09^
[ 0.17, 0.25]
0.08
[ 0.2, 0.04]
0.02
[ 0.15, 0.1]
0.1
[ 0.02, 0.22]
0.06
[ 0.18, 0.04]
0.08
[ 0.06, 0.2]
0.08
[ 0.2, 0.04]
Political ideology
Political ideology
0.07
[ 0.22, 0.09]
0.12
[ 0.03, 0.28]
0.13^
[ 0.03, 0.3]
Cultural worldview
Hierarchy
0.37***
[ 0.53, 0.21]
0.29***
[ 0.41, 0.18]
0.07
[ 0.05, 0.2]
0.260
10.181***
(3, 326)
0.18***
[ 0.33, 0.05]
0.24***
[ 0.35, 0.12]
0.05
[ 0.06, 0.16]
0.254
10.034***
(3, 332)
0.17*
[ 0.32, 0.02]
0.20***
[ 0.32, 0.09]
0.07
[ 0.02, 0.17]
0.177
6.642***
(3, 329)
Individualism
Hierarchy individualism
Adjusted R2
F
(df1, df2)
p < 0.10, ^; p < 0.05, *; p < 0.01, **; p < 0.001, ***. Regression coefficients are standardized and bolded if they reach the previously listed statistical thresholds.. aIncludes all
respondents who self-identify as non-white and/or Hispanic. bPrincipal components scores, see Supplementary Materials Appendix Q for variable weighting. cDummy scores;
the third category is independent, other or no party. dUnder political ideology, conservatism is scored high.
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
G Model
ENVSCI 1829 No. of Pages 10
K.L. Akerlof et al. / Environmental Science & Policy xxx (2016) xxx–xxx
variables revealed that cultural worldviews are predictive of
individuals’ beliefs about sea-level risk at the county level (b
Hierarchy = 0.37, p < 0.001; b Individualism = 0.29, p < 0.001), while
exposure to SLR physical risk is not (Table 3, Appendix T in
Supplementary information). At the scale of home and neighborhood, flooding and inundation hazard exposure was the largest
predictor of SLR risk perceptions (Neighborhood: bFlood/MHHWrisk =
0.39, p < 0.001; bHierarchy = 0.18, p < 0.001; bIndividualism = 0.24,
p < 0.001; own home: bFlood/MHHWrisk = 0.32, p < 0.001; bHierarchy =
0.17, p < 0.05; bIndividualism = 0.20, p < 0.001), though the confidence intervals for the size of the worldview and risk exposure
coefficients overlap.
Higher property value risk also predicted risk perceptions at the
scale of neighborhood and home, though only marginally
significantly so in the latter case (Neighborhood: bPropertyvaluerisk =
0.09, p < 0.05; own home: bPropertyvaluerisk = 0.09 p < 0.10). Being
female was of—or near—significance at the spatial scales of county
and home. All three final models explained between 18% and 26% of
the variance in SLR risk perceptions.
3.3. Effects of deliberation on SLR risk perception
The last of the research hypotheses (H3(a) and (b)) addressed
changes resulting from the Citizens’ Discussion, (n = 40). The small
sample size limited generalization from the results. However, even
with the small sample size, there were statistically significant
increases in participant knowledge and risk perceptions, as
hypothesized. Across all participants, there were statistically
significant increases in topic knowledge, the number of cited
local impacts of most concern, the belief that coastal flooding has
become more of a problem in recent years, and that SLR is
occurring (H3(a)) (Table 4).
In the Citizen’s Discussion, there were there were 8 hierarchical
individualists, 14 egalitarian solidarists, 12 egalitarian individualists and 6 hierarchical communitarians among the 40 valid
respondents. Considering the impact of deliberation between the
two typically most polarized cultural worldview groups, hierarchical individualists and egalitarian solidarists (H3(b)), none of the
knowledge and five risk indicators demonstrated means that
statistically significantly converged (H3(b)) (Appendix U in
Supplementary information). Instead of converging, both of these
groups moved in the same direction on knowledge and risk. Only
7
one of the variables was even close to statistical significance
(p = 0.09). For this item, respondents were asked whether they
agree that SLR is occurring.
We also assessed whether there had been any statistically
significant shifts within the groups of hierarchical individualists
and egalitarian solidarists between the pre- and post- surveys. In
conducting a series of paired t-tests, both groups displayed
significant increases in knowledge post-deliberation (Table 4).
Only hierarchical individualists demonstrated a significant postdeliberation increase in expected impacts, concern about coastal
flooding in the county, and agreement that SLR is occurring.
4. Discussion
4.1. Influence of cultural worldviews and physical risk on SLR risk
perceptions
This study reveals that coastal flooding and other impacts from
the rising waters of the Chesapeake Bay are of concern to Anne
Arundel County residents, but that citizens are uncertain when
significant impacts will manifest. Moreover, perceptions at the
county level of SLR risks are more heavily influenced by worldviews—preferences about the balance between individual freedoms and the collective good—than by physical exposure to coastal
flooding and inundation risk.
In contrast, both worldviews and physical exposure to at-risk
coastal areas were associated with perceptions of risk to one’s own
home or property. This finding aligns both with Cultural Cognition
research demonstrating the effects of worldview on risk perceptions (Kahan et al., 2009, 2010, 2007) and with studies suggesting
the strength of cultural influences in perceptions of physical risks
varies depending on the geographic scale under consideration
(Ruddell et al., 2012). It has long been known that risk perceptions
of whom is at threat are highly scale-dependent, based on whether
the risk target is the respondent, their family, or people in general
(Sjöberg, 2000).
Our results extend findings by Brody et al. (2008) about the
correlation between coastal proximity and climate change risk
perceptions by showing the relationship also exists for SLR risk
perceptions, but only at the smaller scales of neighborhood and
household, not at the larger community scales significant to policy
formation. Many policy approaches to SLR adaptation (Sovacool,
Table 4
Changes in knowledge and risk perceptions after deliberative discussion.
Pre-Survey
PostSurvey
M
M
SD
t
df
p*
SD
Knowledge scale: sum of 5 knowledge measures (1–25)
Hierarchical individualists
Egalitarian solidarists
13.67 4.63 16.67 5.31
11.13 4.36 14.38 3.85
15.23 4.21 18.08 5.72
3.07
2.15
2.15
20 0.003
7
0.034
12 0.026
Impacts concern scale: total number of impacts of most concern (0–9)
Hierarchical individualists
Egalitarian solidarists
4.68
3.88
5.14
3.03 5.73
3.09 6.25
3.01 5.43
3.15
3.33
3.13
1.75
2.75
0.38
21 0.047
7
0.014
13 0.354
Coastal flooding: In your opinion, has coastal flooding become more or less of a problem in the county in recent years? 2.40
(1–5, less coded high)
2.75
Hierarchical individualists
Egalitarian solidarists
2.17
0.88 1.95
0.51
1.04 2.13
0.72 1.83
0.64 2.38
0.39 1.77
SLR: Sea level rise is an issue some coastal communities have been discussing recently. Sea level rise refers to increases in 3.64
the average height of water relative to the land over the course of the year. What do you think? Do you agree or
disagree that sea level rise is occurring? (1–5, agree coded high)
Hierarchical individualists
3.00
Egalitarian solidarists
4.00
1.26
4.23
1.15
1.739 21 0.048
1.31
1.11
4.38
4.14
1.06
1.23
2.99
0.33
*
2.93
19 0.004
7
11
0.025
0.052
7
0.010
13 0.373
p value is one-tailed.
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002
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ENVSCI 1829 No. of Pages 10
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K.L. Akerlof et al. / Environmental Science & Policy xxx (2016) xxx–xxx
2011) will require strategies beyond the scope of individual
homeowners or neighborhood associations (Higgins, 2008).
4.2. Deliberation as a counter-strategy to polarization in risk decisionmaking
The role of worldviews in affecting risk perceptions suggests the
need for communicative strategies that counter this dynamic
(Kahan, 2010). Strengthening individuals’ identification with other
community members in deliberative events as they assess and
consider solutions to local issues, such as SLR, could help. Analysis
of the county survey data by groups holding differing worldviews
showed that those predisposed to lower environmental risk
perceptions displayed the most change in knowledge, impact
concern, problem identification, and SLR beliefs, and in the
direction of increased issue involvement. That is, those who were
less likely to think SLR risk was a concern in their county, were the
ones whose knowledge and beliefs most changed, and changed
toward views consistent with the science of SLR. This may suggest
that community deliberative events could ameliorate the influence
of worldviews on SLR risk.
Arguably, these hierarchical individualists were more likely to
make statistically significant changes on these measures because
there was more room for them to shift. Egalitarian solidarists—
because of their worldviews—are generally more concerned about
environmental issues (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1983). Deliberative
events may affect individuals’ sense of group identity by placing
citizens into small-group discussions about risk and policy of
importance to their community, in this case the county. Smallgroup discussions have been said to be the defining experience of
deliberative events (Barabas, 2004). Citizens’ Discussion participants were asked at the end about which component of the day
they enjoyed the most: the small-group discussions, use of the
online SLR viewer maps, or question periods with experts. Almost
three-quarters (72.5%) of participants selected the small-group
interactions.
Not only can interpersonal communication be an effective
means of attitudinal and behavioral change, perhaps more than
mass communication alone (Abroms and Maibach, 2008), but
group collaboration on tasks has been associated with better
decision-making (Burleson et al., 1984; Woolley et al., 2010).
Moreover, governance at smaller spatial scales—such as by
municipalities and counties—has been linked to effective management of socioecological systems for resilience (Garmestani and
Benson, 2013).
4.3. Study limitations
Study limitations include its one field location, and low
response rates to the initial countywide survey (4%) and the
invitation to the Citizens’ Discussion (0.4%). For this article, we also
did not explore the independent effects of the use of the SLR viewer
on participant decision-making, a growing area of social science
research (Richards, 2015; Stephens et al., 2015, 2014; Wong-Parodi
et al., 2014)
5. Conclusion
To counteract the effects of cultural polarization, Kahan (2010)
recommends providing individuals with both scientific information and salutary cultural cues, such as congenial policy solutions
or a diversity of culturally identifiable messengers—strategies for
scrambling cultural identity cues. In contrast, we call attention to
characteristics of deliberative events, similar to “team reasoning”
(Hindriks, 2012), that may establish, or reinforce, the salience of
membership in a particular group through sustained interpersonal
communication and emphasis on decision-making for the
community. By deepening individuals’ sense of belonging to a
group and their sense of shared place through evaluating policy
choices for their long-term well-being, deliberative community
events may generate the Durkheimian collective conscious to
support community resilience to SLR. As coastal communities
globally address the growing threat of sea level rise, multidisciplinary teams will increasingly be needed to provide this
complex combination of science and policy information in a
context informed by social science (Wong-Parodi and Strauss,
2014).
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Mid-Atlantic Sea Grant, and
Virginia Sea Grant (VASG). Funding did not influence the study’s
design, implementation, analysis, writing, or interpretation. We
wish to thank: Dan Nataf, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne
Arundel Community College, for assistance in executing the
survey; Cecily Cutshall and Courtney Burkey for facilitation of
the community discussion; Mohan Rajasekar of Dewberry for
developing the SLR viewer; and Cliff Sutton, Director of the George
Mason University Statistical Consulting Center.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the
online
version,
at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.
envsci.2016.07.002.
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Karen L. Akerlof is research assistant professor at the Center for Climate Change
Communication at George Mason University. She studies ways in which
communities interpret scientific information and bring experience, values, and
local knowledge to bear in decision-making.
Katherine E. Rowan is professor of communication and director of the graduate
program in science communication at George Mason University. A Fellow of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science, her research concerns
earning trust and explaining complexities through risk and crisis communications.
Todd La Porte is associate professor at the School of Policy, Government, and
International Affairs at George Mason University. His research interests include
organizational and social resiliency, and public organizations, governance and the
use and impacts of networked information technologies.
Brian K. Batten is senior coastal scientist at Dewberry. His is a technical lead on sea
level rise and coastal hazard risk assessments for federal, state and municipal
clients such as FEMA, the Transportation Research Board, the New York State Energy
and Research and Development Authority, and City of Virginia Beach.
Howard Ernst is professor of political science at the U.S. Naval Academy. His
teaching and research interests include environmental politics, energy policy, and
environmental behavior.
Dann M. Sklarew is Environmental Science and Policy associate professor and
Coordinator of Sustainability Initiatives at George Mason University. His research
focuses on advancing ecological stewardship and sustainability.
Please cite this article in press as: K.L. Akerlof, et al., Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation, Environ. Sci. Policy
(2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.07.002