Download presentation - Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

ADVANCING ADAPTATION ON THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES
Annotated Draft for Discussion
Jeremy Pittman
Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies Forum – February 2012
Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative
Purpose
• To review preliminary findings and ensure proper interpretation
• To gain feedback on the Annotated Draft Report
Introduction to the project
• Prairies-level synthesis for PRAC:
– Complementary to ongoing provincial-level syntheses
• SK: Rescan
• AB: J.H. Archibald Consulting
• MB: International Institute for Sustainable Development
– Aimed at the Prairies Region as a whole
Overview
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Synthesis of Lessons Learned
Current Context for Adaptation
Institutional Arrangements
Priority Areas and Actions
Barriers and Challenges
Approaching Adaptation Effectively
What we’ve done so far
• Review of PRAC projects
– Full or draft reports, when possible
– Project update summaries in other cases
– Archibald (2012) for AB projects
• Synthesis of Lessons Learned
– Based on key findings from the PRAC projects
– Relevance to policy, programs or operations
What we’ve done so far
• Engagement of provincial and federal decision makers
– Semi-structured interviews; open-ended questions
– Interview notes analyzed using latent content analysis
– Key themes in relation to each topic area were identified
Who we talked to
• There were 32 interviews in total for this project, in addition to:
– 11 interviews for the Saskatchewan Synthesis
– 3 focus groups for the Alberta Synthesis (Archibald 2012)
• This resulted in the following representation
– Alberta: SRD, ARD, AEW
– Saskatchewan: SWA, MoA, MoE, MoH, MHI, SRC
– Manitoba: MCWS, MIT, MAFRI, MLG
– Federal: NRCan, EC, AANDC, AAFC
– Other RACs: BC, QC, Atlantic
Lessons Learned
• Focus on:
– Climate Monitoring and Information Systems
– Water Management
– Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
– Forest Ecosystem Management
– Municipal and Community Resilience
Climate Monitoring and Information Systems
• Saskatchewan
– Agricultural: P–PET, precipitation deciles/percentiles, and SPI
– Hydrological: Streamflow/reservoir/lake percentiles and SPI
– Need to take a multi-indicator approach
– Develop a network of networks
Source: Quiring 2011
Water Management
• Prairies Region
– Long-term cycles are present in streamflow records, but trends
are consistent with climate warming
– Risk of severe drought in the future is apparent from analyses of
tree-rings, model simulations and cycles of streamflow variability
– Adaptation to short-term wet/dry cycles has been fairly successful;
addressing risks from long-term wet/dry cycles and climate change
likely requires further adaptation
Sources: Axelson et al. 2009; Lapp et al. 2010; St. Jacques et al. 2011; Wittrock et al. 2011; Rescan 2011
Water Management
• Prairies Region
– Future drought risks will be amplified in some cases by projected
water demand (economic growth)
– Recognition of cycles in Saskatchewan’s climate can help inform
risk management at multiple timescales
– Managing future risks should be done assuming non-stationarity
Sources: Axelson et al. 2009; Lapp et al. 2010; St. Jacques et al. 2011; Wittrock et al. 2011; Kulshreshtha, pers. comm.
Water Management
• Alberta
– Annual stream flows in the South Saskatchewan River Planning
Area are expected to change +5% to -30% due to climate change.
An additional reduction of 25% or more in dry years is expected.
• Saskatchewan
– PRAC hydroclimate variability analyses conducted by PARC helped
inform the development of the Emergency Flood Damage
Reduction Program in 2011, which was designed to proactively
manage excessive moisture risk.
Water Management
• Manitoba
– Hydrologic projections for the Assiniboine River watershed indicate
no significant changes to the magnitude or variability of
streamflow, but there is a high degree of uncertainty associated
with these projections
– Municipal and irrigation water use is expected to increase, even
more so in the context of climate change. Other uses, such as
industrial, recreational, and the La Salle Diversion, are expected to
remain relatively similar to existing levels
Sources: Stantec and Genivar 2012
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Prairies Region
– Shifting vegetation zones in relation to shifting moisture regimes
– Average reductions to grassland production are expected to be
minor in magnitude; inter-annual variability and extremes are
likely to be significantly more problematic
– Changes to biodiversity as some species are likely more
competitive under changing conditions than others
Sources: Thorpe 2011
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Saskatchewan
– Within existing suite of programs, some directly improve capacity
to deal with climate-related risks (FRWIP, BRM, ADMP)
– Other programs have co-benefits that improve adaptive capacity
(FSP, EFP, AEGP)
– Mainstreaming within existing programs is likely an efficient way to
approach adaptation in the short-term
– A mix of proactive and reactive programming is likely going to be
necessary to deal with future climate risks
Sources: IISD 2011; Steinley and Mowenchenko 2011; AWSA 2011; SCCWS 2011; NSRBC 2011; Thompson 2011a; 2011b
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Manitoba
– Excessive moisture management will require:
• Better attuning policies and programs to local hydroclimate in
the short-term
• Review and evaluation of current and historical policies in the
medium-term
• Ensuring program flexibility and innovation in the long-term
– Vulnerability for both cattle and forage production is high, with
high risks from extreme events and disease outbreaks leading to
reduced economic stability and coping capacity
Sources: MMM 2012
Forest Ecosystem Management
• Alberta
– High priority risks from climate change to Alberta’s forest sector
include: drought; reduced timber supply; increased damage from
pests and fires; and decreased regeneration potential
– The Climate Change Adaptation Framework is a useful and
practical decision making tool
Municipal and Community Resilience
• Manitoba
– Adaptation opportunities in Manitoba’s municipal sector include:
• promoting stakeholder awareness of climate change issues
• pursuing integrated vulnerability and risk assessment
• conserving and restore natural areas
• coordinating land-use and watershed management plans;
• increasing housing density to manage urban growth
• developing long-term flood and drought preparedness plans
• regionalizing water management services
Current Context for Adaptation
• All provinces have made progress on adaptation and have tentative
plans to prepare provincial adaptation frameworks, strategies or
roadmaps
• Some departments (e.g. MAFRI, Forest Services Branch MoE) are
preparing adaptation strategies or undertaking risk assessments
• PRAC helped develop collaborative networks, leverage resources, and
raise the profile of adaptation
• Federal departments are continuing work towards ongoing risk
assessments, mainstreaming and expanding collaboration
Institutional Arrangements
• Potential Roles in Adaptation
• Collaboration and Partnerships
• Effective Multi-level Governance
Potential Roles in Adaptation
• Related to mandates and/or ongoing roles
• Self-identified through interviews
• For more info., see the Annotated Draft Report
Collaboration and Partnerships
• Alberta
– Alberta Climate Change Adaptation Team
– Recognized need to broaden collaboration
• horizontally within government
• vertically with municipal, community and industry
stakeholder groups
– Ministries are at different stages
Sources: Archibald 2012
Collaboration and Partnerships
• Saskatchewan
– To date, most collaboration related to adaptation has occurred
through PRAC and further collaboration will likely be necessary to
effectively deal with climate change
– Through implementation of the PRAC program, the ground work
has been completed for broadening the collaborative network
within the province
Collaboration and Partnerships
• Manitoba
– PRAC has been the main catalyst for collaboration on adaptation
– The need to further develop collaboration across government and
with external stakeholders, such as communities, municipalities,
Aboriginal groups, Conservation Districts, Planning Districts,
industries and academics/researchers, is recognized
Collaboration and Partnerships
• Interprovincial
– Most effective in the following areas:
• knowledge, practice and information sharing
• collaborative research projects or research extension
• sharing lessons learned from various studies
• sharing manuals and approaches
Collaboration and Partnerships
• Federal
– Longstanding track record of broad collaboration on adaptation,
internally and externally
– Moving forward, expanding collaboration will be a priority
Effective Multi-level Governance for Adaptation
• Need to expand engagement of communities, municipalities and
industry to advance adaptation
– e.g. Conservation Districts, Watershed Stewardship Associations,
Planning Districts, municipal associations, NGOs, and industry
associations
• Working collaboratively to identify priorities for adaptation
• Promoting education and awareness of climate change issues
• Developing programs for incenting or facilitating adaptation.
Priority Areas and Actions
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Climate Monitoring and Information Systems
Water Management
Agriculture and Grasslands Ecosystem Management
Forest Ecosystem Management
Expanding Priorities
Climate Monitoring and Information Systems
• Saskatchewan
– improving the monitoring network
– providing broad access to data and information on climate
– documenting information requirements of different groups
Water Management
• Alberta
– integrated risk assessment for water supplies
– identifying adaptation options for emergency management
– fostering broad awareness and engagement beyond the
department and government
– completing and translating baseline assessments of potential
future climatic conditions for use in water management models
Source: Archibald 2012
Water Management
• Saskatchewan
– developing water allocation policy that is effective in the context of
climate change and economic development
– developing hydrologic drought plans for major systems
– improving the monitoring and reporting of water use
– developing water conservation policy and programs
Water Management
• Manitoba
– integrating of climate change information into forecasting
– identifying adaptation options for Red River Floodway operations
– reviewing water supply using scenarios and understanding
implications for water management
– enhancing shoreline protection and flood control
– developing an improved understanding of infrastructure options
for managing extremes
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Alberta
– developing rangeland management policy and programs that
improve capacity to deal with climate extremes and variability
– developing an improved understanding of the social and economic
implications of climate change impacts and adaptation
– increasing integrated modeling capacity
– developing information systems to support adaptation
Source: Archibald 2012
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Saskatchewan
– identifying short-, medium- and long-term adaptation options
– promoting long-term land use changes to support resilience
– maintaining connections between native grasslands
– integrating economics into adaptation options
Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management
• Manitoba
– completing the MAFRI adaptation strategy
– evaluating current programs and identifying opportunities for
mainstreaming
– identifying no-regrets beneficial management practices with a
focus on co-benefits
Forest Ecosystem Management
• Alberta
– integrated modeling and identifying linkages with
policy/operations
– strategic regional land use planning and analysis
• Saskatchewan
– complete and implement draft strategy
• Manitoba
– vulnerability assessment of the Sandilands Forest
Expanding Priority Areas
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Improved collaboration with First Nations and Métis
Infrastructure Risks and Resilience
Municipal and Community Resilience
Health Risks and Adaptation
Economic Tools for Adaptation
Broad Government Climate Risk Assessments
Barriers and Challenges
• Alberta:
– Low priority for adaptation
– Limited resources
– Misunderstanding of adaptation in high level decision making
– Lack of senior level leadership on adaptation
– Lack of political support for adaptation
– Limited cooperation across departments.
Source: Archibald 2012
Barriers and Challenges
• Saskatchewan:
– Low priority for adaptation
– Limited resources
– Unwillingness to work on adaptation
– Adaptation being confused with mitigation
– Expectations for climate change information that goes beyond
defendable science
– Uncertainty in forecasts and projections
Barriers and Challenges
• Manitoba:
– Low but climbing priority for adaptation
– Lack of strategic direction
– Culture of reactive versus proactive management
– Limited resources
– Lack of coordination between departments
Approaching Adaptation Effectively
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Mainstreaming
Engaging High-level Decision Makers
Engaging Community and Industry Stakeholders
Framing Adaptation
Setting Goals and Objectives
Targeting Areas for Adaptation
Mobilizing Resources for Adaptation
Continuing Progress on Adaptation
Mainstreaming
• Effective and efficient way of approaching adaptation
• Numerous opportunities were identified
– e.g. departmental business lines, existing policies and programs,
and ongoing operations
• Would require improved political support and broad departmental
buy-in on adaptation
Engaging High-level Decision Makers
• Need for better engagement in all jurisdictions
• Help obtain political support
• Raise the relative priority for adaptation
Engaging Industry and Community Stakeholders
• Need to expand engagement in all jurisdictions
• Engagement is at different stages
• Facilitate and encourage autonomous and planned adaptation
Framing Adaptation
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As efficiency, progress or innovation in practices and operations
With a focus on the expected or desired results
In relation to mainstreaming
By avoiding ‘doom and gloom’
By highlighting how investments now can provide future savings
By using risk or context-specific terminology
In relation to existing priorities and co-benefits
Setting Goals and Objectives
• Start with managing current vulnerabilities
• Leveraging other existing priority issues
• Working towards general resilience and adaptive capacity for a broad
range of issues, impacts and stressors
• Achievable in the short-term but benefits in the short- and long-term
• Promoting ‘preparedness thinking’ but ensuring action occurs in the
short-term
• Engaging stakeholders in the ongoing definition of goals and objectives
Targeting Areas for Adaptation
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Linking adaptation priorities with ongoing and emerging risks
Using existing sustainability indicators and criteria
Integrating risk and vulnerability assessment into operations
Monitoring and evaluating the outcomes
Mobilizing Resources for Adaptation
• Collaboration is critical
• Future application of scarce resources will require efforts to continue,
maintain and expand collaboration
Continuing Progress on Adaptation
• Using ongoing short-term climate risk management as an entry point
for longer-term adaptation
• Ensuring adaptation is effective not only for anthropogenic climate
change but also natural variability (short- and long-term) and other
potential drivers of change
• Focusing on no-regrets and robust adaptation strategies
• Fostering a broad acceptance of, and building capacity to manage,
uncertainty
• Encouraging education and awareness of climate change issues with
younger generations
Next Steps
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Receive and integrate feedback on the Annotated Draft Report
Triangulate and complement results with secondary sources
Prepare Full Draft Report
Receive feedback on Full Draft Report
Prepare Final Report
Thank you!
With funding support provided by: