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Globelics 4th PhD School at Lisbon, May 2007 Carbon Management for Sustainable Development: An Examination of Potential Technological Transition Paths of the Saudi Arabian System of Innovation to a Cleaner Energy Economy Presented by: Noura Mansouri PhD Student Materials Department Unit for Strategic Studies in Nanotechnology Technology Exploitation and Management Group Queen Mary, University of London United Kingdom Outline 1. Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development a. Carbon emissions since the industrial era b. The greenhouse effect and global warming e. Sustainable development 2. Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration a. CO2 capture b. CO2 transport c. CO2 sequestration d. CCS system 3. Theories: Innovation and Transition a. Systems of Innovation b. Transition 4. Methodology: Saudi Arabia as a Case Study a. Research methods b. Illustrative Saudi National Systems of Innovation c. Carbon management in transition paths Research Questions • What might be the role of carbon management technologies in facilitating a transition in Saudi Arabia’s energy economy towards sustainability? • What might be the transition paths in implementing carbon management technologies onto Saudi Arabia’s energy sector and industries over time? • How might Saudi Arabia’s energy policies spur innovation in carbon management technologies? Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Carbon Dioxide Emissions • Historical recorded carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial era Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Greenhouse Gas Effect • Greenhouse effect and global warming Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Climate Change • Environmental Linkages Greater impact Less impact Equal impact Ozone Depletion Climate Change Desertification Bio diversity Loss Water Forestry Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development • Definition • “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” - Brutland Commission • Live responsibly • Balances the three keys of economy, environment and society. sustainable development: Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Keys of Sustainable Development Transportation Ozone Depletion Bio diversity Loss Carbon Lock-in Forestry Climat e Change Electricity Power Generation Water Desertification Econ omic Inertia CCS Env ironmental Mothe r Earth Sustainable Develo pm ent Social Background: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Social Empower ment Inclusion and Consultation Governance Bio diversity Natural Resources Pollution Environmental Economic Dimensions of Sustainab le Development Growth Effi ciency Stability Infrastructure Policies Regulations Institutiona l Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS • Definition: • CCS is a process consisting of the separation of CO2 from industrial and energy-related sources, transport to a storage location and long-term isolation from the atmosphere. • The technology of CCS constitutes of three stages: Carbon Capture Carbon Transport Carbon Sequestration/Storage • Capture of CO2 can be applied to large point sources. The CO2 would then be compressed and transported for storage in geological formations, in the ocean, in mineral carbonates , or for use in industrial processes. IPCC, 2005 Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Carbon Sequestration - Geological • Prospective areas in sedimentary basins where suitable formations, oil or gas fields, or coal beds may be found. saline Technology:Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System Technology:Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System • The net reduction of emissions to the atmosphere through CCS depends on the fraction of CO2 captured, the increased CO2 production resulting from loss in overall efficiency of power plants or industrial processes due to the additional energy required for capture, transport and storage, any leakage from transport and the fraction of CO2 retained in storage over the long term. Technology:Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System Technology Status Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CCS System Global Locations Location of sites where activities relevant to CO2 storage are planned or under way. Technology: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Mineral Carbonation Theories: Innovation and Transitions Systems of Innovation • National System of Innovation: • Freeman, Lundvall, Nelson, Edquist, Metcalfe etc. • Sectoral System of Innovation • Franco Malerba • Technological System of Innovation • Thomas Hughes, Bo Carlsson Theories: Innovation and Transitions Systems of Innovation • Innovation System framework to be applied is an intersection: Theories: Innovation and Transitions Transition • Technological Transition: • Multi-level Perspective (Kemp and Geels, 2004) • Socio-technical System (Geels, 2002, 2006) Theories: Innovation and Transitions Transition Source: Geels, 2002 Methodology: Case Study Why Saudi Arabia? • World’s largest oil reserves: • Benefit from the global carbon lock-in • Sustainable oil demands • Tackle the environmental concern by pursuing “cleaner” energy • Sustainable Development - should be the ultimate objective internationally • Retain a strong position in the global energy markets Methodology: Research Methods Data Collection • Primary Data: • Governmental reports • Existing literature and case studies • Secondary Data: • Saudi government authorities, companies, and academics • Semi-structured in-depth interviews • Email correspondence • Phone interviews Innovation Degree of maturity and deployment of potential Oil Prices Oil Depletion Geopolitics Climate Change Policies Hydrocarbons CCS Radical Innovation N S Incremental Innovations Sociotechnical Regime Meso level Early Optimization Technological Niches Micro level Trajectory Disturbed Science K S A Technol ogy Trajectory Defined Wind Nuclear Solar fusion PV Diminishing Returns to Innovation Time Systematic application of innovation criteria Markets Culture Fuel cell ? Cleaner Hydrocarbons Landscape Developments Macro level Policy KEY CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration KSA: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia NSI: National Systems of Innovation SI: Systems of Innovation PV: Photovoltaic KSA NSI Energy Sectoral SI Technol ogical SI Methodology: Theory Application An Illustrative Technological Transition of the Saudi Arabian’s NSI to a Cleaner Energy Economy Markets Culture Science KSA NSI Policy Technology KSA NSI Energy Sectoral SI Technologi cal SI Methodology: Theory Application An Illustrative Technological Transition of the Saudi Arabian’s NSI to a Cleaner Energy Economy Innovation Oil Prices Oil Depletion Geopolitics Climate Change Policies ? Cleaner Hydrocarbons Hydrocarbons Diminishing Returns to Innovation Landscape Developments Macro level Incremental Innovations CCS Radical Innovation Fuel cell Trajectory Defined Wind Nuclear Solar fusion PV Trajectory Disturbed Early Optimization Time Socio-technical Regime Meso level Technological Niches Micro level Macroeconomic and Regulatory Context Education and Training System Communication Infrastructures Global Innovation Network Know ledge Generation , Diffu sion and Use Sau di Aramco MaΥa den In dust rial P illars SAGIA KACST Su p p ort in g In st it ut o i ns Univ ersit ies Clusters of Industries Regional Innovation System SABIC P rivate Sector National Innovation System Product Market Conditions Factor M arket Conditions National Innovation Capacity • Actors and Linkages in the Saudi Arabian NSI (Source: Author, derived from OECD, 1999) Saudi ArabiaΥsPerformance Growth, Job Creation, Co m petitiveness Conclusion 1. Expected Theorertical Contributions 1. The merging of NSI + SSI + TSI in Transition Paths 2. Expected Practical Contributions 1. National System of Innovation in Saudi Arabia 2. CCS Technological System of Innovation 3. Saudi Energy Sectoral Innovation System 4. Transition Paths to Sustainability in Saudi Arabia Obrigada! • Thanks for your attention..