Download Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015

IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
421st Forum on Research Works
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015
– Analyses of oil pricing and climate change measures
under new circumstances –
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
21 October 2015
YANAGISAWA Akira and Yuhji MATSUO
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
“History doesn’t repeat itself,
but it does rhyme” Mark Twain
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
❖ Oil price
$2014/bbl
100
50
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2015
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
Source: BP
• Decreases in demand
and increases in
supply by non-OPEC
countries following
high price after the
oil crises
• Severer competition
in OPEC
• Easy supply-demand
balance affected by
the Netback pricing
• Decreases in
emerging economies’
demand on the Asian
financial crisis
• Expansion of OPEC
production quota
and excess
production by the
members over their
quota
• Sharp drop of
demand on the
Lehman shock
• Increases in supply
by non-OPEC and
OPEC countries
• Expansion of
production capacity
by Saudi Arabia and
others
• Slow growth of
global demand
1
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Various factors involve oil price
•
•
•
•
Supply
Demand
OPEC’s policy
Fiscal break-even price
OPEC’s spare capacity
Increases in production
of unconventional oil
• Economic growth
• Stock in developed
countries
• Oil use policy in
developing countries
• Car ownership and fuel
economy
❖ Historical and actual
supply-demand factor prices
150
100
$/bbl
❖ Factors related with oil price
50
Expectation in market
0
2001 2005
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
Money
• Stock prices and
exchange rates
• Expected inflation
• Money supply
• Risk appetite
• New investment
commodity and
technology
Risk
• Political situation in
producing countries
• Foreign policy
• Terror acts on related
facilities
• Unusual weather,
disasters and accidents
• Strikes, etc.
2010
2015
Historical
Actual supply-demand factor
Oil price is found by expectation in the
futures market affected by supply and
demand, risk and money.
Oil price was much higher than what was
indicated by actual supply-demand factor.
2
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Highlights
❖ Outlook for World/Asia energy and ❖ Analysis of lower prices by easy
measures against climate change
energy supply and demand balance
Global energy demand continues to increase
led by Asian emerging economies, etc.
Huge effect is expected by energy
conservation and mitigating climate change
measures. The target of halving CO2
emissions by 2050, however, is hardly
progressing.
Mitigating measures expected from major
emitters’ INDCs very likely fail to sufficiently
reduce GHG emissions.
Balancing among mitigation, adaptation and
damage and assessing various emission
reduction trajectories with a long-term view
are essential.
•
•
•
❖ Mitigation and adaptation costs and damage [2100]
Costs and damages (A+B)
14
$2014 trillion/year
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
16
12
10
8
Damages + Adaptation costs (B)
6
4
Mitigation costs (A)
2
0
-2
0%
20%
40%
60%
Reduction from Reference Scenario
80%
•
•
•
•
Production of the Middle East grows by only
1.0 Mb/d if development of unconventional
resources, strong energy conservation and
decarbonisation progress simultaneously.
While lower prices are a great boon to
energy importing countries, exporters will
inevitably face damage unless they reform
the current economic structure.
There is risk of supply-demand imbalance in
the future due to the absence of proper
investment under extreme unstable prices.
Dialogue and cooperation between
producers and consumers and among
consumers themselves play a important role.
❖ Economic impact of lower prices [2030]
Lower Price Scenario (compared with
Reference Scenario)
•
European Union
2%
0%
Oceania
United StatesIndia
Others
Japan China
Global average
ASEAN
Russia
-2%
Middle East
-4%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Reference Scenario ($2010 trillion)
3
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Asia/World Energy Outlook
through 2040
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Geological Coverage
• The world is geographically divided into 42 regions.
• Especially the Asian energy supply/demand structure is considered in detail,
dividing the area into 15 regions.
OECD Europe
- United Kingdom
- Germany
- France
- Italy
- Other OECD Europe
Former Soviet Union (FSU)
& Non-OECD Europe
- Russia
- Other FSU
- Non-OECD Europe
Middle East
-Saudi Arabia - Iran
- Iraq - UAE - Kuwait
- Qatar - Oman
- Other Middle East
Africa
- South Africa (Rep. of)
- North Africa
- Other Africa
Asia
- Japan - China - India
- Taiwan - South Korea
- Hong Kong - Indonesia
- Malaysia - Philippines
- Thailand - Vietnam
- Singapore - Myanmar
- Brunei Darussalam
- Other Asia
Oceania
- Australia
- New Zealand
North America
- United States
- Canada
Latin America
- Mexico
- Brazil
- Chile
- Other Latin
America
5
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Modeling Framework
Major assumptions
Macroeconomic model
Calculate GDP-related indices,
price indices, activity indices
including material production,
etc. consistently.
Technology assessment
model
Use a bottom-up approach to
calculate future efficiencies of
appliances, vehicles, etc.
Optimal power generation
planning model
Calculate the cost-optimal
power generation mix to
meet the projected future
electricity demand.
GDP, Population, Energy prices,
Exchange rates, Global trade, etc.
Energy supply-demand
model
Econometric model to forecast
future energy supply and
demand by regression analysis
of historical trends based on the
energy balance tables data of
the International Energy Agency
(IEA).
This model calculates energy
demand, supply and
transformation as well as
related indices including CO2
emissions, CO2 intensities and
energy self sufficiency ratios.
Experts’ opinions
World trade model
Use the Linear Programming
(LP) method to calculate the
future international trade
flows of crude oil, petroleum
products, etc.
Computable general
equilibrium model
Estimate the economic impacts
induced by the changes in
energy supply and demand,
based on input-output data.
Climate change model
Calculate future GHG
concentration in the
atmosphere, temperature rise,
damage caused by climate
change, etc.
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Major Assumptions: Population
millions
2500
1980
2000
2013
2040
1500
1000
500
0
China
NonOECD
Europe 5%
Middle
East 3%
India
Japan
Oceania 0.4%
OECD
Europe 8%
China 19%
N. America
5%
L. America
9%
India 18%
Africa 16%
Other
Asia 8%
ASEAN
8%
Japan 1.8%
2013：7.1 billion
ASEAN
OECD
Europe 6%
Other
Asia
N.
L.
OECD
America America Europe
NonMiddle
OECD
East 4% Oceania 0.4%
Europe 4%
China 15%
N. America
5%
L. America
8%
India 18%
Africa 22%
Other
Asia 8%
ASEAN
8%
Japan 1.3%
2040：9.1 billon
NonOECD
Europe
Africa
Middle Oceania
East
- Population is expected to increase
mainly in developing (non-OECD)
countries.
- China’s population gradually ages
and peaks out around 2030.
Meanwhile, population rapidly
increases in India and Africa, thanks
to medical technology and food
nutrition improvement.
- India replaces China as the most
populated country in Asia (and the
world) around 2025; population
should reach 1.6 billion in 2040.
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Major Assumptions: Economic Growth
Note: Real values are in 2010 USD
China
1990 (nominal)
9.9
5.2
ASEAN
2%
6.2
6.5
India
India
1%
China
2%
2.1
1.5
Japan
South
Korea
6.5
2.6
Taiwan
5.6
2.3
ASEAN
4.4
North
America
Latin
America
OECD
Europe
5.2
2.6
2.7
Africa
3.3
Middle
East
3.3
2.8
4.5
ASEAN
4%
India
5%
2.4
1.9
4.1
4.3
Non-OECD
Asia excl.
Japan
5.0
7.2
2.0
4.0
6.0
1980-2013
2013-2040
2.9
2.9
0.0
Japan
14%
OECD
Europe
35%
Others
26%
1.9
1.5
World
United
States
26%
ASEAN
3%
India
3%
8.0
Average annual growth rate, %
10.0
12.0
Japan
8%
China
11%
OECD
Europe
26%
2040 (real)
United
States
21%
United
States
19%
Others
26%
Japan
7%
China
15%
United
States
23%
Others
26%
2025 (real)
2.7
2.2
OECD
Others
20%
2013 (real)
OECD
Europe
23%
ASEAN
5%
India
7%
China
19%
Japan
6%
OECD
Europe
18%
- While the world economy is facing a variety of
challenges, it is assumed to achieve strong growth
over the medium to long term.
- In the Reference Scenario, China’s real GDP in
2040 is ahead of the United States and is 3.5 times
that of Japan. India also overtakes Japan in the
late 2030s; it is 1.4 times that of Japan in 2040.
8
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Major Assumptions: Primary Energy Prices
Japan
Natural gas
75
100
125
70
75
80
105
84
137
209
79
103
134
Real
842
554
663
730
498
507
528
Nominal
842
624
909
1,221
561
696
883
16.3
10.7
12.8
14.1
9.6
9.8
10.2
16.3
12.0
17.6
23.6
10.8
13.5
17.1
8.2
8.5
9.8
11.7
6.8
7.3
8.1
8.2
9.6
13.5
19.6
7.7
10.0
13.6
4.4
4.5
5.6
6.8
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.4
5.1
7.7
11.4
3.8
5.1
6.5
Real
98
89
106
132
86
96
108
Nominal
98
100
145
221
97
132
181
Real
Real
Real
USD/t
2040
105
USD/MBtu Nominal
Steam coal
2030
Real
USD/MBtu Nominal
USA
2020
Nominal
USD/MBtu Nominal
Europe
2040
- Prices are for calendar years. Real prices are in 2014 dollars.
- Japan’s energy prices are on a CIF import basis.
CIF import prices for Japan
140
- In the Lower Price Scenario, energy prices remain lower due to
the dull growth in demand in accordance with the diffusion of
energy saving technologies, as well as further promotion of
unconventional resources development.
USD/t
Historical ← → Forecast
120
Crude oil
2000
1500
100
80
1000
60
LNG (right)
40
500
20
Steam coal (right)
0
0
1990
In the Reference Scenario, crude oil prices rise gradually again to
$100/bbl by 2030 due to robust demand growth in non-OECD
countries, emerging geopolitical risks and financial factors, oil
supply constraints reflecting rising depletion rates for oil fields, etc.
LNG prices will rise accordingly, with the existing price disparity
shrinking due to expanding interregional trades.
-
USD/bbl
2040
USD/t
2030
2020
Japan
2020
2014
USD/bbl
2014
2000
Crude oil
Lower Price
2030
Reference
Solid line: Reference, Dashed line: Lower Price
9
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Scenarios
Reference Scenario
This scenario reflects past trends as well as energy and environment policies that have
been introduced so far. This scenario does not reflect any aggressive policies for
energy conservation or low-carbon measures.
Advanced Technologies Scenario
In this scenario, energy conservation and low-carbon technologies are promoted for
maximum impacts, as each country is assumed to implement powerful policies to enhance
energy security and address climate change issues.
Lower Price Scenario
In this scenario, it is assumed that energy savings will be pursued as stringently as in the
Advanced Technologies Scenario, while assuming large increases in unconventional oil and
natural gas production, resulting in considerable relaxation of supply and demand.
10
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Assumptions for the Advanced Technologies Scenario
In this scenario, each country further enhances policies on energy security and addresses global warming. Technological
developments and international technology transfers are promoted to further expand the diffusion of innovative
technologies.
Introducing and Enhancing Environmental
Regulations and National Targets
Environment Tax, Emissions Trading, RPS, Subsidy
Provisions, FIT, Efficiency Standards, Automobile Fuel
Efficiency Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Energy
Efficiency Labeling, National Targets, etc.
【Demand Side Technology】
■ Industry
Under sectoral and other approaches, best available
technologies on industrial processes (for steelmaking,
cement, paper-pulp and oil refining) will be deployed
globally.
■ Transport
Clean energy vehicles (highly fuel efficient vehicles,
hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles,
fuel cell vehicles) will diffuse further.
■ Building
Efficient electric appliances (refrigerators, TVs, etc.),
highly efficient water-heating systems (heat pumps, etc.),
efficient air conditioning systems and efficient lighting
will diffuse further, with heat insulation enhanced.
Promoting Technology Development and
International Technology Cooperation
R&D Investment Expansion, International Cooperation
on Energy Efficient Technology (steelmaking, cement
and other areas), Support for Establishing Energy
Efficiency Standards, etc.
【Supply Side Technology】
■ Renewable Energy
Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation,
CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) generation, biomass
power generation and bio-fuel will diffuse further.
■ Nuclear Energy Promotion
Nuclear power plant construction will be accelerated
with operating rates improved.
■ Highly Efficient Fossil-fired Power Plant
Technology
Coal-fired power plants (USC, IGCC, IGFC) and natural
gas MACC (More Advanced Combined Cycle) plants will
diffuse further.
■ CCS
CCS deployment will expand in the power generation
sector (new and old coal-fired and gas-fired plants) and
the industrial sector (steelmaking, cement and other
plants that emit massive GHGs).
11
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Assumptions for the Advanced Technologies Scenario
Thermal efficiencies of
coal-fired power plants
The share of vehicle sales by type (world)
2%
100%
2%
1%
7% 1%
45%
7%
Fuel Cell
20%
80%
31%
12%
60%
1%
Electric
Plug-in Hybrid
96%
40%
40%
Hybrid
59%
20%
1%
20%
2010
Adv. Tech.
Reference
0%
2040
Compressed
43%
41%
39%
37%
OECD
35%
Non-OECD
33%
Gas
31%
ICE(Gasoline,
29%
Diesel)
Solid lines: Reference
Dashed lines: Advanced Tech.
27%
25%
1990
2013
2040
・ In the Advanced Technologies Scenario for the transport sector, clean energy vehicles diffuse drastically
and fuel efficiency is improved. In the power sector, low carbon technology diffuses and highly efficient
fossil-fired power plant technology are introduced.
・ In the industrial, residential and commercial sectors, the technologies that become available in the near
future are heavily introduced.
12
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Primary Energy Demand by Region
10,000
Million tons of oil equivalent
2013
9,000
↓
2040
Asia
19,000
5,400 Mtoe
FSU & Non-OECD
Europe
North America
3,000
OECD Europe
2,000
OECD Europe
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
FSU / Non-OECD Europe
1,000
Oceania
0
1990
2000
622
533
Middle East
4,000
2013
2020
2030
Oceania
North America
2,000
3,000
Average Annual
4,000 Growth Rate
（2013-2040）
3,281
Latin
America
6,000
5,000
1,000
Africa
(1.4-fold
increase)
7,000
0
Asia
13,600
8,000
Increase (2013-2040)
Mtoe
8,700 Mtoe
World
Reference Scenario
447
1.8%
2.3%
1.8%
1.8%
167
0.5%
58
0.1%
24
22
0.5%
0.0%
2040
・ Under the steady economic growth assumption, Asian energy consumption in 2040 increases 1.6-fold
from the present level (from 5.4 billion tons in 2013 to 8.7 billion tons in 2040).
・ Non-OECD countries account for about 90% of global energy consumption increase between 2013 and
2040.
13
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Primary Energy Demand (Asia)
10,000
Reference Scenario
Asia
Million tons of oil equivalent
2013
Others
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
5,400
Taiwan
Malaysia
↓
2040
Vietnam
Thailand
5%
Indonesia
South Korea
6%
Japan
7%
India
4,000
8%
China
2,000
0
21%
18%
15%
15%
41%
40%
1990
2000
56%
2013
(1.6-fold increase)
China & India
15%
2013
14%
3,000
1,000
18%
21%
8,700
55%
2020
52%
2030
49%
2040
3,000 780
↓
2040
4,200 1,800
(1.4-fold inc.) (2.3-fold inc.)
・ Energy demand in China and India increase rapidly in line with economic growth. Their share of Asian
energy demand expands 70% in 2040.
・ Japan’s energy consumption declines as a result of progress in energy efficiency combined with a
maturing economy and a decreasing population. Its share of Asian energy consumption shrinks from
8% to 5%.
14
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Primary Energy Consumption by Source
6000
World
Mtoe
29%
Fossil share
Oil
3000
2000
19%
Nuclear
1990
2000
11%
6%
5%
3%
Hydro
2%
2013
Fossil share
2%
2020
2030
2040
41%
84%→81% （Ref. ）
71% （Adv. Tech. ）
51%
33%
2500
24%
2000
18%
1500
14%
10%
Natural gas
1000
0
24%
21%
Other
renewables
Mtoe
3000
29%
Coal
4000
3500
25%
28%
24%
31%
4000
The percentages indicate the
shares of total global/Asian
primary consumption
Asia
81%→78% （Ref. ）
71% （Adv. Tech. ）
5000
Solid lines: Reference
Dashed lines: Adv. Tech.
23%
1000
12%
500
0
24%
16%
16%
15%
12%
10%
6%
1990
2000
10%
2%
2%
2013
2%
2020
2030
2040
• In both the Reference and Advanced Technologies Scenarios, oil continues to be the largest share of
primary energy consumption and remains a major energy source up to 2040.
• In Asia, coal remains the largest share among energy sources. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario,
coal consumption declines substantially while retaining the largest share among energy sources.
• Share of fossil fuel declines until 2040, while maintaining the 70% in the Advanced Technologies Scenario.
15
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Energy self-sufficiency in Asia
Solid lines: Reference
Dashed lines: Adv. Tech.
Asia
100%
India
China
92%
91%
120%
100%
90%
Coal
80%
69%
60%
58%
Coal
Natural gas
40%
57%
80%
60%
43%
18%
Oil
26%
17%
2000
2013 2020
2030
2040
57%
28%
Oil
20%
10%
77%
80%
78%
Coal
78%
65%
60%
46%
50%
40%
30%
20%
60%
Natural gas
30%
98%
90%
70%
69%
50%
0%
1990
93%
89% 100%
70%
98%
Natural gas
40%
Oil
41%
30%
20%
24%
8%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2013 2020
2030
2040
0%
1990
7%
2000
2013 2020
2030
2040
・ While Asia including China and India have scarce oil and natural gas resources, coal resource are
abundant and this contributes to stabilize energy self-sufficiency.
・ Asian fossil fuel self-sufficiency rate has been decreasing and it keeps decreasing not only in the Reference
Scenario where demand rapidly increases but also in the Advanced Technologies Scenario where energy
saving technologies are heavily introduced.
16
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Outlook for nuclear and renewable power generation capacities
Nuclear
1,600
Wind
GW
GW
Solar PV
1,579
TWh
1,6008,000
1,200
1,000
1,4007,000
OECD Europe
1,2006,000
Other Asia
India
868
China
800
400
200
0
152
107
388
46
140
49
128
115
68
121
73
1,0005,000
162
610
998
8004,000
205
6003,000
139
122
134
120
86
47
128
90
318
4002,000
2001,000
191
59
00
69
17
117
91
Reference Adv. Tech.
2005
2013
2040
22
20
326
749
800
4,000
34
494
137
00
4
79
2013
2040
61
143
293
168
2,000
1,000
0
Reference Adv. Tech.
2005
26
4,000
321
112
200
1,000
5,000
3,000
227
400
2,000
79
367
234
73
277600
3,000
219
7,000
6,000
5,000
394 1,000
105
8,000
145
1,200
6,000
Power Generation
(right)
600
1,381
1,400
7,000
239
N. America
379
TWh
141
Others
1,400
GW
1,600
8,000
Reference Adv. Tech.
2005
2013
2040
・ In the Reference Scenario, global nuclear, photovoltaic generation capacity, and wind power expand
1.6-fold, 3.1-fold, and 5.5-fold, respectively, from 2013 to 2040. In the Advanced Technologies Scenario
they are 2.2-fold, 5.0-fold, and 10.1-fold, respectively.
• In particular, expansions in Asia are significant and China and India account for nearly half in all
technologies in the Advanced Technologies Scenario.
17
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Power generation mix in 2040
World
45,000
Asia
TWh
20,000
39,509
40,000
35,000
7%
33,671
19%
16,000
14,000
9%
1%
12,000
19%
11%
23,307
25,000
3%
15%
6%
20,000
16%
15,000
11,826
11%
4%
10,000
1%
18%
17%
11%
15%
2%
21%
24%
Reference
2013
8,000
Adv. Tech.
2040
14%
Other
renewables
14%
Hydro
18%
Nuclear
1%
15%
13%
6,000
4,000
35%
37%
1990
4%
14%
4%
3%
18%
22%
41%
9,481
10,000
28%
16,649
11%
13%
30,000
0
19,519
18,000
11%
5,000
TWh
Oil-fired
Natural
gas-fired
53%
2,215
63%
38%
Coal-fired
2,000
0
39%
Reference
1990
2013
Adv. Tech.
2040
・ In 2040, coal still accounts for the largest share of power generation. Natural gas-fired power plants
globally increase on the introduction of natural gas combined cycle plants. Renewable energy
sources including wind and solar energy also expand their share of power generation.
・ In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, coal’s share of power generation declines to 24%, while
nuclear, hydro and other renewable energy sources expand their respective shares.
18
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Nuclear and renewables power generation expansion in Asia
2013 (dashed line)
→2040 Reference (inner circle)
/ 2040 Adv. Tech. (outer circle)
Unit: TWh
Nuclear
112
China→ 911/1,362
Wind
Solar PV
S. Korea
139
→ 282/345
139
→ 560/753
Japan
Taiwan 42
→ 308/591
4
9.3
→ 132/216
ASEAN
0
→ 133/280
1.6
→ 18/25
5.2
→ 23/30
1.3
→ 6.9/16
→ 32/63
India 34
15
→ 140/243
1.1
→ 7.1/11
34
→ 132/462
0.5
→ 2.3/5.7
3.4
→ 39/93
0.3
→ 3.6/8.5
14
→ 77/102
1.2
→ 15/33
Nuclear power generation will continue to increase in China, India and Korea. Vietnam becomes the first
country to operate a nuclear power plant in Southeast Asia, followed by other ASEAN countries.
-
Wind power expands in China and India. Its diffusion in ASEAN will be limited because of the complex
topography.
-
Solar power grows at the highest rate. Due to the low load factors, however, it falls behind wind power in
terms of power output.
-
19
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Energy saving in 2040 by region and by sector
Global final energy demand
14,000
Mtoe
12,991
12,000
10,000
9,173
8,000
6,000
6,281
11,735
Non-energy
10,309
use
Energy saving by region and by sector
12,991
Mtoe
Other
Non-OECD
Other Asia
India
China
Other
7,085
Other OECD
Japan
OECD
Europe
Transport
4,000
United
States
2,000
Other
Transport
Industry
11,313
Mtoe
Industry
0
1990
2000
2013
2020
2030
2040 2040
Refer- Adv.
ence Tech.
2040
Reference
2040
Adv. Tech.
- Global final energy demand expands 1.4-fold from 9,173 Mtoe in 2013 to 12,991 Mtoe in 2040 in
the Reference Scenario.
- In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, final energy demand in 2040 is reduced by 13% to 11,313
Mtoe. 60% of the energy saving is attributable to non-OECD countries. By sector, “other” sector
including residential and commercial sectors accounts for nearly half (47%) of total energy saving.
20
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Costs and benefits of energy saving technologies
High-efficiency vehicles
Energy saving,
Mtoe
1.5
200
0.6
Cumulative costs/benefits
up to 2040, 2014 USD trillion
150
Annual energy
saving in 2040
(right)
1.0
0.5
100
Annual energy
saving in 2040
(right)
0.3
0
30
Benefit
0.0
Asia
-60
Middle
East
-0.6
Africa
-30
Non-OECD
Europe
Oceania
Asia
Middle
East
Africa
Non-OECD
Europe
-200
OECD
Europe
-2.0
L. America
-150
N. America
-1.5
-0.3
OECD
Europe
-100
L. America
Cost
0
Cost
-50
N. America
-0.5
-1.0
60
50
Benefit
0.0
Energy saving,
Mtoe
Oceania
Cumulative costs/benefits
2.0 up to 2040, 2014 trillion USD
High-efficiency lighting
In the case of high-efficiency lighting such as light-emitting diodes (LED), the benefits induced by energy saving
outweigh the costs, resulting in net positive benefits. On the other hand, in many cases the energy saving
measures that need huge initial investments bring net negative benefits, because the investments cannot be
recouped by energy saving. In these cases, vigorous policies including subsidies and tax incentives are needed to
promote energy saving.
-
Taking only the “beneficial” energy saving actions is not sufficient to achieve ambitious CO2 reduction targets.
Maximum deployment of energy saving technologies, including the more “costly” ones, is indispensable.
-
21
Additional investments in the Advanced Technologies Scenario
(cumulative up to 2040)
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Cumulative CO2 emissions
without CCS, Gt
60
2014 USD Trillion
OECD
Europe
Non-OECD
Europe, FSU
19.7
0.4 8.1
52
50
Additional
investments
for energy saving
40
30
20
Production &
transportation
10
Renewables
0.4 6.0
0
Reference
Africa
0.6 4.5
Nuclear
Thermal
Adv. Tech.
3.7
Middle East
Distribution &
transmission
North
America
China
4.1
32
Cumulative additional
investments, 2014 USD trillion
India
1.7
14.6
38.0
4.9
Japan
1.0 4.0
Other
Asia
1.8 12.5
Oceania
26.0
Latin
America
1.1 8.9
0.1 1.2
・ On the supply side, while energy supply decreases in the Advanced Technologies Scenario,
investments on renewable energy (etc.) expand and the cumulative investments up to 2040 are the
same level as the Reference Scenario.
・ On the demand side, additional investments of over 20 trillion USD are required for energy savings.
Asian countries, including China and India, account for 42% of the additional investments.
22
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Conclusion: Asia/World Energy Outlook through 2040
• Global and Asian primary energy consumption increase 1.4-fold and 1.6-fold, respectively,
through 2040. As energy demand expands rapidly, Asia’s energy self-sufficiency rate
continues to fall and that change may destabilize the world energy markets. It also results in
increasing global CO2 emissions, causing severe damages to the environment.
• The key to solving these problems are energy saving and the decarbonization of energy use.
Energy saving measures include the penetration of the technologies that bring more
benefits than costs. With only these “beneficial” technologies, however, it would not be
possible to achieve a sufficient level of energy saving. Every effort should be made to realize
the maximum possible saving of energy consumption, taking more “costly” measures as well.
• Asian emerging countries, including China and India, hold the key to reducing CO2 and GHG
emissions. Without their cooperation, the international community is not able to address the
climate change problem. All countries and regions have to adopt maximum measures of
efficiency, while maintaining sustainable economic growth.
23
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
What do lower prices produce?
We may see lower prices than in the
Reference Scenario
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Demand
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
Supply
Reference
Lower Price
Energy conservation
and fuel switching in
transport sector
progress along with
the trend.
Strong energy
conservation and
fuel switching by
non-fossil fuel
progress.
Conventional
resources
Development in each
country follows its
historical trend.
Conventional
resources
Competition among
low-cost producers
such as OPEC, Russia,
etc. continues.
Unconventional
resources
Production growth in
the United States
declines in and after
2020s.
Slow development is
seen in other
countries.
OPEC effectively
loses its power as a
cartel organisation.
Unconventional
resources
Reach the highest
levels both inside
and outside the
United States.
❖ Assumption of oil price
150
100
100
75
$/bbl
❖ Background of the scenarios
70
50
75
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Reference
Lower Price
Note: Future prices are in $2014.
Easy supply-demand balance due to factors in
supply and demand sides is assumed in the
Lower Price Scenario. Real oil price in 2030 in the
scenario is premised to be cheaper by 25% than
in the Reference Scenario.
25
Depressed production in traditional
exporting regions
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
❖ Crude oil production in selected
regions [2030]
40
29.2
20
15.4
11.0
13.6 13.513.8
16.917.3
0.4
9.1
0.65
0.6
1.11
0.94
0.86
0.8
0.98
0.740.71
0.370.35
0.2
0
0.0
Africa Former Latin North Middle
Soviet America America East
Union
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
1.14
1.0
Tcm
Mb/d
1.2
34.7
30
10
❖ Natural gas production in selected
regions [2030]
Reference
Lower Price
2013
Africa Middle
East
Reference
Asia
Former North
Soviet America
Union
Lower Price
2013
Global oil supply in 2030 is 96.5 Mb/d, increased by just 7.7 Mb/d from today, due to the assumed strong
energy conservation and fuel switching to other energies.
Production growth in the Middle East is only 1.0 Mb/d, squeezed by large increases in unconventional oil
production in North America and others. Russia faces production reduction by 0.8 Mb/d.
26
Benefit for importing countries thanks to
lower imports and price
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
❖ Crude oil net imports/exports in selected regions [2030]
Net exports
-457
Middle East
Former Soviet Union
Africa
Net imports
Quantity
contribution
Price
contribution
Reference
-115
China
-217
Western Europe
-102
United States
-150
Japan
-50
0
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
Lower Price
-148
2014
500
$ billion
1,000
Oil saving, lower oil price and wider use of unconventional resources make international trade of crude
oil* 36% less, to $2.8 trillion from $4.4 trillion, in the Reference Scenario. * Among the modelled 15 regions. Nominal value.
China is the biggest winner in terms of saving of net import spending, acquiring $217 billion. The United
States follows with $150 billion. Net export earning of the Middle East decreases by $457 billion.
27
Lower prices support the global economy
varying by region
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Lower Price Scenario (compared with
Reference Scenario)
❖ Changes in real GDP [2030, compared with the Reference Scenario]
European Union
Oceania
United StatesIndia
Others
Japan China
2%
Global average
0%
ASEAN
Russia
-2%
Middle East
-4%
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
Reference Scenario ($2010 trillion)
Lower prices and consumption of oil and natural gas vitalise importing countries’ economies through
less outflow of national welfare and improvement of real purchasing power. The global economy
expands by 1.9%.
The situation exerts downward pressure on oil producing countries in the Middle East and others,
whose revenue depends heavily on energy exports.
28
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Lurking risks of high price and volatility
❖ Global oil supply-demand balance ❖ Global oil demand and volumes of futures
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
1,545
1,500
1
Mb/d
Overdemand  Mb/d  Oversupply
2
0
1,000
500 354
-1
0
-2
1990
2000
1Q-3Q
2010 2015
95
85
2005
Futures volume
2010
2015
Oil demand
Note: Futures of WTI at NYMEX and Brent at ICE. Source: IEA, CME, ICE
Oversupply since 2014 is as much as 1 Mb/d, the largest in the last 16 years. We, however, have no
experience that oversupply at such a scale continues for three or more years in the last three decades.
The crude oil futures market has grown much faster than actual oil supply and demand. We cannot
deny that money and geopolitical factors have a huge influence on oil price again.
29
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Summary: Lower energy prices
❖ How do we see the current oil price? ❖ Impact by lower prices [2030]
▌ Similarities can be found between fall of oil
price this time and in 1980s:
1. Huge contribution by increases in supply
from new sources,
2. Independent from demand factor caused by
economic shock, and
3. Competition among OPEC members.
▌ Oil market fundamentally has a nature that
draws cycles. Therefore, oil price turns to rise
sooner or later. The similarities, however,
suggest possibility that current low price does
not end in short term.
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 IEEJ © 2015
▌ Oil price was much higher than indicated by
actual supply-demand factor since 2011. We
cannot deny that money and geopolitical
factors have huge influence on oil price again.
▌ There is risk of supply-demand imbalance in
future due to absence of proper investment
under extreme unstable prices. Dialogue and
cooperation between producers and consumers
and among consumers themselves play an
important role for sustainable development.
▌ We can assume $75/bbl or lower oil price if
policy-driven fossil fuel saving and wider
utilisation of unconventional resources by
technology development ease supplydemand balance.
▌ Global oil supply in 2030 is 96.5 Mb/d,
increased by just 7.7 Mb/d from today, due to
assumed strong energy conservation and
fuel switching. Production growth in the
Middle East is only 1.0 Mb/d squeezed by
large increases in unconventional oil
production in North America, etc. Russia
faces production reduction by 0.8 Mb/d.
▌ Lower import quantity and price result in
substantial low import spending for crude
oil. Largest fruits are in hands of China.
▌ Reduction in energy import spending
supports global economy with 1.9% of
expansion, especially for importing
countries. Situation exerts downward
pressure on oil producing countries in the
Middle East and others, whose revenue
depends heavily on energy exports.
30
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Addressing climate change issues
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
CO2 Emissions by region
Note: Total figures include international bunkers.
50
GtCO2
45.9 Australia, etc.
45
Russia
Japan
Europe
39.5
40
35
32.9
32.6
Others
30
25
20
21.2
United
States
Other Asia
23.5
15
23.3
India
10
5
China
0
1990
2000
2013
2030
2030
Adv. Tech.
+CCS
2050
2050
Adv. Tech.
+CCS
- Global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase 1.4 times from 2013 to 2050. The expansion is
especially rapid in India and other Asian countries, as well as Africa, the Middle East and Latin
America.
- The share of the ANNEX I countries with reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol was 40%
in 1990. It declined to 22% in 2013, and will decline further to 15% by 2050.
32
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
CO2 Emissions Reduction by Technology (World)
CO2 reduction share in 2050
GtCO2
50
Energy saving
Biofuel
Wind, solar, etc.
Nuclear
Fuel switching
CCS
Total
45
40
35
GtCO2
Share
8.3
0.2
3.0
2.4
1.4
7.2
22.6
37%
1%
14%
11%
6%
32%
100%
32.9
30
45.9
42.7
省エネルギー
Energy saving
39.5
バイオ燃料
Biofuel
太陽光・風力等
Wind, solar, etc.
35.7
33.5
原子力
Nuclear
燃料転換
Fuel switching
CCS
CCS
Reference
レファレンス
32.6
28.2
25
21.2
23.5
50% reduction
2050年半減
by 2050
23.3
20
15
1990
Adv. Tech. +CCS
技術進展+CCS
2000
2013
2020
2030
2040
2050
・ In the Advanced Technologies Scenario, the global CO2 emissions are reduced by various
technological options, including energy saving, enhancement of power generation efficiency,
renewables, nuclear and CCS. Altogether these options contribute to large CO2 emissions reduction.
・ To achieve halving global CO2 emissions from current levels, additional measures such as innovative
technological development and eco-friendly urban development are required in the long-term.
33
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of
major countries
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Date of
submission
Target type
Reduction target
Base year
Target year
Coverage
EU
Mar 6
Absolute emissions
40%
1990
2030
GHG
United States
Mar 31
Absolute emissions
26～28%
2005
2025
including LULUCF
Russia
Apr 1
Absolute emissions
25～30%
1990
2030
GHG
China
Jun 30
GDP intensity
60～65%
2005
2030
CO2
Japan
Jul 17
Absolute emissions
26%
2013
2030
GHG
Indonesia
Sep 24
Reduction from BAU
29%
BAU
2030
GHG
Brazil
Sep 30
Absolute emissions
37%
2005
2025
GHG
India
Oct 1
GDP intensity
33～35%
2005
2030
GHG
Party
-
（43% for 2030）
GHG
In advance of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Nov. 2015, the participating
countries have submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which present the
post-2020 climate actions each country intends to take.
By Oct 1st, 117 countries and regions (totaling 144 countries) have submitted their INDCs.
- The 8 major countries and regions shown above cover 65% of global GHG emissions in 2010.
-
34
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Comparison of INDCs with the Reference/Adv. Tech. Scenarios
70,000
MtCO2-eq
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
Reference
Adv. Tech.
20,000
INDC
10,000
IEA Bridge
50% reduction by 2050
0
1990
-
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
The future evolution of global GHG emissions suggested by the INDCs of the 8 parties traces a
path similar to that of the Reference Scenario. Thus, climate actions based on the INDCs are not
sufficient to reach the Advanced Technologies Scenario, being far behind the target of “50%
reduction by 2050.”
35
Comparison of INDCs with the Reference/Adv. Tech. Scenarios
by country
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
MtCO2-eq
7,000
United States
6,000
6,000
EU
MtCO2-eq
1,600
1,400
5,000
5,000
1,200
4,000
4,000
1,000
3,000
3,000
800
600
2,000
2,000
Reference
Adv. Tech.
INDC
1,000
0
1990
14,000
2000
200
0
2020
1990
2030
China
MtCO2
400
1,000
2010
9,000
Reference
Adv. Tech.
INDC
2000
2010
2020
2030
0
1990
India
MtCO2-eq
4,500
8,000
4,000
7,000
3,500
6,000
3,000
8,000
5,000
2,500
6,000
4,000
2,000
3,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
1,000
500
0
0
12,000
10,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2000
1990
2010
2020
2030
2020
2030
Russia
MtCO2-eq
The INDC targets of the United States and Japan are as ambitious as the
Advanced Technologies Scenario. The target of EU is also positioned near the ATS.
- The targets of China and India exceed the Reference Scenario in terms of
CO2/GHG emissions.
-
Japan
MtCO2-eq
2000
2010
Note: Japan’s 2020 target does not
include reduction by nuclear power.
China’s target is for CO2, while others
are for GHG.
36
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Comparison of CO2/GHG intensities (China and India)
China
150
INDC： 60 to 65% reduction
from 2005
2005=100 2000
1990
2010
2020
India
2030
100
150
INDC： 33 to 35% reduction
from 2005
2005=100 2000
1990
2010
2020
2030
140
140
120
120
100
100
100
80
Reference
80
INDC
60
50
60
Reference
Adv.
40 Tech.
50
Adv. Tech.
40
INDC
20
0
0
1990
2005
2013
2020
2030
20
0
0
1990
2005
2013
2020
2030
Assumed the reduction rate of CO2 intensity as identical to
that of GHG intensity.
In most countries including emerging nations, the GHG intensity (i.e. GHG emission divided by real GDP)
has rapidly been declining, even though total GHG emission has been increasing.
- The continuation of the historical trends (the Reference Scenario) shows that the targets are hardly
challenging.
-
37
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Mitigation, adaptation and damage costs
GHG
emission
Climate change
Damage
Adaptation
Mitigation
To reduce or prevent emission
of greenhouse gases.
Tradeoff
To take appropriate action to
prevent or minimize the damage
caused by climate change.
Tradeoff
-There is a trade-off relationship among the mitigation, adaptation and damage costs. It is
impossible to reduce all three costs at the same time.
- It would be realistic to expect a balance among the three, while minimizing the total cost.
38
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Reference, Adv. Tech. and “50% reduction by 2050” scenarios
Temperature change from 1850-1900
CO2-eq. concentration*
900
ppm CO2-eq.
ppm
800
4
°C
レファレンス相当
Reference
レファレンス相当
Reference
技術進展+CCS相当
Adv. Tech. +CCS
技術進展+CCS相当
Adv. Tech. +CCS
2050年半減
3
2050年半減
50% reduction
50% reduction
by 2050
by 2050
700
600
2
500
1
400
300
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
* The “CO2-equivalent concentration” includes the forcing of all GHGs, as well
as aerosols and albedo change.
-The results of the Reference Scenario correspond to a level of CO2-eq. concentration in 2100 in the range
of 760-860 ppm, with the average temperature rise from 1850-1900 reaching 2.8-4.0°C in the same year.
- On the other hand, the Advanced Technologies Scenario is comparable to CO2-eq. concentrations in
2100 of 540-600 ppm, with the average rise in temperature between 1.7 and 2.4°C. This is lower than
2.5°C and possibly lower than 2°C in 2100.
39
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
450 ppm category in IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Scenarios in IPCC AR5 WG3
CO2-eq
Concentration* in
2100, ppm
Subcategory
450
（430-480）
Overshoot
(vast majority)
500
（480-530）
550
（530-580）
No overshoot
70
Change in GHG
emissions from
2010 to 2050, %
2100 temperature
change relative to
1850-1900 (℃)**
-72 to -41
1.5 - 1.7
（1.0 - 2.8）
-57 to -42
Overshoot
-55 to -25
No overshoot
-49 to -19
Overshoot
-16 to +7
（580-650）
-38 to +24
（650-720）
-11 to +17
（720-1000）
+18 to +54
1.7 - 1.9
（1.2 - 2.0）
1.8 - 2.0
（1.2 - 3.3）
2.0 - 2.2
（1.4 - 3.6）
2.1 - 2.3
（1.4 - 3.6）
2.3 - 2.6
（1.5 - 4.2）
2.6 - 2.9
（1.8 - 4.5）
3.1 - 3.7
（2.1 - 5.8）
* The “CO2-equivalent concentration” includes the forcing of all GHGs, as well
as aerosols and albedo change.
** Temperatures in parentheses include carbon cycle and climate system
uncertainties.
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3
Gt
RCP6.0
（720-1000ppm
category）
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
50.4
RCP4.5
（580-720ppm
categories）
15.4
RCP2.6
（450ppm
category）
-3.4
2000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Fossil CO2 emissions
2020
2040
ppm
CO2-eq CO2-eq
CO2換算ppm
2060
2080
2100
concentration
843
RCP6.0
663
RCP4.5
495
RCP2.6
2000
2020
※Calculated using MAGICC 6.0
2040
2060
2080
Decline to
～450ppm
2100
Meinshausen, M., S. C. B. Raper and T. M. L. Wigley (2011). "Emulating coupled
atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part I –
Model Description and Calibration." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11: 1417-1456.
- For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, which is a typical scenario for the “450ppm” category,
the GHG concentration is estimated around 500 ppm CO2-eq in 2100. In a longer term, the concentration
declines to some 450 ppm.
- This scenario assumes 64% reduction of fossil CO2 from 2010 to 2050, and negative emissions after 2070. It is
much more ambitious than the “50% reduction by 2050” target.
40
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Mitigation vs. adaptation and damage
- In 2050 the temperature rise is relatively small (less
than 2°C from the latter half of the 19th century),
resulting in smaller damage.
- CO2 reduction brings benefits (negative costs) to a
certain extent due to the savings of fossil fuel
consumption. If the reduction ratio exceeds that of the
Advanced Technologies Scenario, however, the cost
increases enormously.
- The damage costs also become tremendous after
2100. Thus a long-term perspective is indispensable to
address the problem of climate change.
Mitigation cost: estimated by IEEJ
Damage + adaptation cost: calculated
using the formula in the DICE 2013R model
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity assumed at 3°C.
2014 USD trillion/year
16
14
Total (A+B)
12
10
Damage +
adaptation cost (B)
8
Adv. Tech 50% reduction
by 2050
+CCS
2014 USD trillion/year
6
6
4
4
Total (A+B)
Damage +
adaptation cost (B)
2
2
Mitigation cost (A)
0
0
Mitigation cost (A)
-2
-2
0%
20%
40%
60%
Reduction from the Reference Scenario
2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Reduction from the Reference Scenario
2100
41
IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Uncertainty in estimating the long-term optimal path
700
Mitigation, adaptation and damage costs
- The estimation of these costs and damages are still at a very early
stage. The uncertainty is extremely large.
- The mitigation cost hike with larger reduction ratio makes the
achievement of “zero emission” or “negative emission” extremely
difficult. Future R&D should aim to reduce this cost hike.
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)
Marginal Abatement Cost
600
500
Steep
hike
400
300
200
Gradual increase
100
0
-100
0%
20%
40%
60%
- The temperature change in response to the changes in the radiative
Reduction from BaU
forcing is called the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS).
- In IPCC AR4, it was estimated at 2.0 – 4.5°C with the best estimate at 3.0°C. However, recent studies
tend to estimate ECS lower. In IPCC AR5, it was estimated at 2.0 – 4.5°C without any agreement on
the best estimate.
- With lower ECS, damage caused by climate change becomes smaller, resulting in a less ambitious
mitigation path being optimal.
Discount rate (social discount rate)
- An annual ratio used to convert a future value to the present value.
- When a certain rate of interest is expected for sure, the interest rate
can be regarded as the discount rate.
- With higher discount rates, future climate damages are valued less,
resulting in smaller mitigation being optimal.
- This study assumes the “normal” discount rate at around 4% in
2050, and the “low” discount rate at around 2% in 2050, under the
assumptions as described later.
Case of discount rate at 5%
1500
1000
500
0
0
1
3
4
5
6
7
10
$1,000
of2 today
worth
$1,630
of8 109years
from now. $1,000 in the future is
equivalent to $610 today.
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IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Example of the calculation of the long-term optimal path
50
GtCO2
45
40
①
35
②
③
30
25
④
⑤
20
⑥
Optimal path for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of 3°C
and "standard" discount rate assumption
Sensitivity analysis
compared with the "normal" assumptions:
① Mitigation cost: 2 times
15
② Damage: one half
③ Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity: 2.5°C
Reference
10
④ Damage: 2 times
Adv. Tech.
5
⑤ Mitigation cost: one half
50% reduction by 2050
⑥ "Low" discount rate
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2080
- The optimal path considering mitigation and adaptation costs and climate damage shows a
downward trend of CO2 emission from the current level, although the uncertainty is very large.
-These calculations suggest that the paths to reduce 50% or more from current levels by 2050 result in
enormous mitigation costs compared with the damage, and cannot be regarded as optimal, even
assuming lower discount rates.
- In order to achieve zero or negative emissions in a longer term, technological innovation would be
needed to reduce the cost hike with larger CO2 reduction ratios.
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IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Social discount rate
The “social discount rate” ρ can be formulated as follows (Ramsey’s formula):
ρ＝δ＋ηg
δ: Pure rate of time preference
g: Growth rate of per capita consumption
η: Elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption
If the economic (and consumption) growth rate declines in the future, the discount rate also declines
according to this formula.
“Standard” assumption
Calibrate the parameters to match the observed
market interest rates.
Example： δ＝1.5%、η＝1.45 (DICE 2013R model)
⇒ Discount rate: 5% in 2010, 4% in 2050
and 3.5% in 2100
“Low” assumption
Set the parameters normatively irrespective of the observed
interest rates, from the viewpoint of intergenerational justice.
Example： δ＝0.1%、η＝1.0 (Stern review)
⇒ Discount rate: 3.5% in 2010, 2% in 2050
and 1.5% in 2100
6%
5%
“Standard” assumption
「標準」想定
4%
3%
“Low” assumption
「低」想定
2%
1%
0%
2010
2050
2100
2150
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IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Innovative technology development towards the future
Technology
Next generation nuclear
power
Reducing the Nuclear fusion
production
of CO2
Space Solar Power System
(SSPS)
Preventing Bioenergy and Carbon
the release
Capture and Storage
of CO2 to the
atmosphere (BECCS)
Carbon Capture and
Utilizing the Utilization (CCU)
produced
CO2
Artificial photosynthesis
Overview and challenges
Advanced nuclear technologies under development worldwide,
including fast breeder reactors, high temperature gas-cooled reactors,
molten salt reactors and small modular reactors.
Unlike the conventional nuclear technologies that exploit the energy
released by the fission of heavy nuclei, nuclear fusion makes use of
the energy released during the reaction (fusion) of light nuclei. This
technology could possibly result in a almost limitless supply of energy,
without producing spent fuels as high-level radioactive wastes.
A system that transmits energy from space-based solar power plants
to the ground in the form of microwaves or laser beams. It can
generate power stably with almost no influence from the weather.
Reducing the costs of mass transition through space is one of the
major challenges.
The technology to capture and store the carbon dioxide released by
burning biofuels. If the biofuel can be regarded as carbon neutral, this
technology makes it possible to achieve negative emissions. Barriers
to large-scale deployment of BECCS include risks related to transport
and provision of biomass feedstock.
The technologies to capture and use carbon dioxide as industrial
materials, etc. Large-scale processing of CO2 is one of the major
challenges.
A chemical process to convert sunlight, water and carbon dioxide into
carbohydrates and oxygen. As with the BECCS technology, it could
realize negative emissions. Major challenges include the development
of the catalysis to split water into hydrogen and oxygen.
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IEEJ：November 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Conclusion: Addressing climate change issues
・ With the climate actions suggested by the INDCs of major countries, it would not be
possible to curb GHG emissions to sufficient levels. It is strongly expected that each party
tries its best to reduce GHG emissions further.
・ At the same time, we should note that there is a trade-off relationship among the
mitigation, adaptation and damage costs. It would be realistic to expect a balance among
the three, while minimizing the total cost. Otherwise no international agreements would be
obtained.
・ From this point of view, it is necessary to take actions against climate change considering
various scenarios and options other than only the “450ppm” scenario.
・ Long-term measures have to be taken beyond 2050 to reduce global CO2 emissions
drastically. In addition to existing technologies, innovative technologies including CCS, CCU
and artificial photosynthesis have to be developed to accomplish the target.
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Contact :[email protected]