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Emerging research on Low Carbon Development in South Africa Kim Coetzee, MAPS Programme researcher (www.mapsprogramme.org) Energy, Environment and Climate Change Group, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town Outline Snapshot of... > Carbon/Energy challenges > Development challenges Policy developments in response to challenges Current Research at the ERC 1.MA case studies - C & D special edition 2.PAMA paper findings 3.MA/NAMA/LCDS SA snapshot: Development challenges • 39% of the population live on less than 40 EUR per month • 0.7 GINI co-efficient • Housing-delivery backlog of over 2.1 million housing units (+/- 12.5-million people) • Growing social unrest mainly related to lack of services-delivery & wage disputes • Approximately 1/4 population is unemployed NDP diagnostic Crumbling infrastructure Divided communities Reducing inequality Poor education outcomes Resource intensive economy Corruption Uneven public service performance Eliminating poverty Spacial patterns that marginalise the poor High disease burden High unemployment Overview of Low Carbon Development Goals Rennkamp, Britta. 2012. Sustainable Development Planning in South Africa: A Case of over-Strategizing? In Conference Paper of the 2012 Berlin Conference of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change on "Evidence for Sustainable Development". 5-6 October 2012, Berlin, Germany. SA snapshot: carbon/energy challenges • Highest emissions in Africa • Only 1.19% of global CO2 emissions, but high energy intensity makes it 44th (/185) in per capita emissions (CAIT 2011) • Reliance on coal due to high energy intensity of the economy, 20th in the world (CAIT 2011) • Coal provides 77% of primary energy needs (Eskom 2011) including 93% of electricity generation. SA’s Draft Second National Communication SA snapshot: Energy Challenge So where does that leave us? What is happening domestically? > Government response > ERC/MAPS research How do domestic actions interact with the international? Government Response: Policy developments in the 'carbon space' • Climate Change • National Climate Change Response Strategy 2011 - DEA • Development • National Planning Commission (NPC) – "Low Carbon Economy" • Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) - dti • Energy • Bi-annually reviewed Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – DoE • RE ’re-bid’ announced in November 2012 • Energy Efficiency Strategy 2005 – currently under review • Renewable Energy White Paper 2003 – 10, 000Gwh by 2013 National Climate Change Response: flagship programmes. • Public Works • Water Conservation and Demand Management • Renewable Energy • Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand Management • Transport • Waste Management • Carbon Capture and Sequestration • Adaptation Research Response: National Development Plan • Not a policy; a "vision" that suggests links between policies • Attempts to conceptualise a "bigger picture"; includes low-carbon development as pillar of future economic trajectory • Achieve the peak, plateau and decline trajectory for greenhouse gas emissions, with the peak being reached around 2025 • By 2030, an economy-wide carbon price should be entrenched. • Zero emission building standards by 2030. • Absolute reductions in the total volume of waste disposed to landfill each year. • At least 20 000MW of renewable energy should be contracted by 2030. Current research at the ERC 1.MAPS MA case studies - C & D special edition 2.PAMA paper findings 3.MA/NAMA/LCDS Current research on Mitigation Actions as part of emerging research on LCDS • Prefaced by the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) work from 2006-2008 • Technical Analysis of NAMAs at Cancun • Possible NAMAs in South Africa, incremental costs, relative reductions and sustainable development benefits • Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios programme (MAPS) • Mitigation action studies in Latin American countries • SA case study on approach to mitigation actions highlighting existing “bottom up” initiatives (Climate and Development journal) • Recently completed paper on the interface of MAs, NAMAs and LCDS (Climate Policy journal) 1. SA Case study: findings • What are barriers and challenges to implementation? • Financing • Counteracting vested interests • Implementation capacity; incl. enabling legislative environment • How can these be overcome with national / international support? • Align with areas of underlying/existing implementation strength • Procure a strong mandate • Close alignment of SA MAs with core ‘interests’ of owner / implementer • Use development co-benefits to strengthen mandate • SAMAs with a clear need for international financing and clear MRV characteristics lend themselves to international support SAMA research meets SD research Democracy Uncertainty Information • Institutional setup bound to the current administration • No legal basis which would secure long term mandate for SD plan • No substantial resources for implementation • Compromised political commitment • political uncertainty high • Contradictory development models are employed • Unclear impacts of intervention vs. nonintervention • Well quantified overall goals • Unclear how to reach them • Acknowledges sciences basis in other plans • Missing information on how the three conflicts unfold • No indication of progress reporting, monitoring and evaluation 2. Poverty Alleviating Mitigation Actions Introduced the concept of ‘poverty alleviating mitigation actions’ PAMAs as a framework to rethink the way programs and policies for reducing emissions are structured in order to reduce both poverty and emissions. i) The development goals need to be clear, time-delimited and quantified; ii) Actions to reach those goals need to be analysed according to their feasibility and potential impacts on both mitigation and poverty; and iii) Addressing poverty and inequality should be considered at all stages in the development of a mitigation action (identification, selection, prioritisation, implementation, monitoring and verification) Categorisation of analysed MAs according to the PAMA typology Very few of the MAs described in the MAPS country study reports are perceived to be embedded in poverty alleviation efforts. Wlokas, H., Rennkamp, B., Torres, M., Winkler, H., Boyd, A., Tyler, E. and Fedorsky, C. (2012). Low carbon development and poverty. MAPS Research paper. MAPS, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town. 3. MA/NAMA/LCDS papers A series of two briefs and a journal article (Climate Policy) • Definitional “Mitigation Action, NAMAs and LCDS: Building a common understanding” • Interface between the concepts Low Carbon Development Strategies, NAMAs and Mitigation Actions • Research paper > How the concepts of ‘Mitigation Actions’, ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’, and ‘Low Carbon Development Strategies’ are understood in developing countries 3. A bit more from the research paper The three concepts are being interpreted in widely differing ways, with much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration. Does not appear that pursuing clarity regarding MAs and LCDS at the international level will do much to deepen mitigation action in developing countries, however, greater operational and conceptual clarity of the NAMA concept appears urgent, and a distinction between Pledge-NAMAs and Registry-NAMAs is proposed as a start. The converse is true for the concept of NAMAs, for which a lack of conceptual and operational clarity at the international level could be said to be hindering mitigation action. Strengthening the concepts currently being used in domestic policy processes, together with clarity on how the key elements of action, strategies, co-benefits, development, planning, implementation and ambition interact appears likely to facilitate a deepening of mitigation action. Thanks to GIGA for the opportunity to attend this dialogue and to present our work. This was a presentation of a range of work currently being undertaken at the ERC under the auspices of the MAPS Programme. Researchers & staff of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town. I am part of an ad hoc grouping of researchers who work in this area namely: Dr Britta Rennkamp, Holle Wlokas, Emily Tyler, Anya Boyd, Marta Torres-Gunfaus, Prof. Harald Winkler.