Download Looking for Opportunities: The BC Context Goal Project Advisors

The BC Context
Looking for Opportunities:
Biodiversity Adaptation and Carbon
Conservation in British Columbia
Photo: Andy Wright / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010
Rachel Holt, R.P.Bio, Ph.D. &
Gregory Kehm, M.L.Arch
Photo: BC Government.. Lac Du-Bois Grasslands Park
Tides Canada Foundation &
Wilburforce Foundation
Photo: Ed Schnauzer. Muskwa River Valley
Photo: Cristina Goettsch Mittermeier / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010. Great Bear Rainforest
Photo: A.S.Wright / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010
Background Photo Credit: Jack Dykinga / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE 2010.
Project Advisors
Goal
• Project Advisors:
• Project is an investigation – sets a foundation
for future work:
• Looking for conservation and mitigation
opportunities in BC at the strategic level.
– In relation to climate change
• Outcomes
- Provide strategic guidance
– Identify data and knowledge gaps
– Recommendations for potential actions
– Recommendations for next steps
– Dave Secord (Tides Canada Foundation)
– Ken Lertzman (Simon Fraser University)
– Joel Clement (Wilburforce Foundation)
• Science Advisory Team:
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Andy Mackinnon BC-MFLNRO
Tory Stevens, BC-MOE
Meade Krosby, UofW
Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research
Sarah Gergel, UBC
Brian Starzomski, U.Vic.
Eric LoFroth, MoE
Thomas Sisk, U of Arizona
Nicholas Coops, UBC
Sally Aitken, UBC
Meg Krawchuk, SFU
Jim Pojar
(I) Special Elements of Biodiversity – a proxy theme
Four information layers
• Signif. elements of biodiversity
• Pressures: Human footprint
– Current
– Future
Interpret combinations of
these layers in relation to
broad adaptation needs
and options
• Pressures: Climate Change
– one scenario / 2080
• Mitigation potential
– Dynamic carbon
– Static carbon
Interpret in relation to
above layers for potential
win-win mitigation /
adaptation options
a) Habitat focused
Old and mature forest
Grasslands
Wetlands (presence / concentrations)
Lakes and rivers
Estuaries
b) Species focused
Terrestrial species richness – all species
Endangered species and ecosystems
Important Bird Areas
Species richness for which BC has high global responsibility
Intact large mammal predator-prey systems
(II) Pressures - Human footprint
• Current
– Linear features – transport. density /
pipelines / seismic lines/hydro lines
Areas upstream of dams
Water diversion index
Urban / rural / permanent recreation
Public land grazing (cattle)
Agriculture
Active mines
Active coal field tenures (over-emphasizes
current pressure)
– Independent power projects (run of river /
wind)
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Image Credit: Google Earth 2011. Seismic lines – Taiga Plains.
Photo Credit: Cameron Carlyle. 2005. High Elevation Grazing.
Photo: Lenz / iCLP RAVE. Taken on an iCLP RAVE. 2009. Open Pit Coal Mine
Combining the layers
Significant Elements of Biodiversity
+
Footprint
(III) Future climate
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New layer – based on Dave Roberts U of AB.
Interpreted for BC (this project) Greg Utzig
Single scenario and model – ‘conservative’ A2.
Predicts climate envelopes to 2080
2000
Projecting climate envelopes
• One scenario
• Based only on climate:
• Soil characteristics, competition, pest
outbreaks, migration rates, genetic variation,
predator/prey relationships and other factors
will also play a role in determining what
ecosystems will actually occur in specific
locations
2080
Goodness of fit – predicted to
current envelopes.
Summary of Mahalanobis distance
Information:
Green = good agreement
Yellow = moderately good
Red = poor agreement, but best
available from range of options in
Western north america
Where do BC’s future climate envelopes
exist today?
Note – things move around in BC,
so this under-estimates change
What does this tell us?
• Big and unknown change ……
• Regime shift
– significant in some area
– Unknown in others
• Potentially huge implications around Western
North America connectivity -
(IV) Mitigation opportunities
• Created static carbon maps (based on Ruesch &
Gibbs, ORNL – ‘Updated Total Global Carbon Stocks’)
- Soil organic carbon (worked with Terry Lewis)
- Terrestrial biomass carbon (circa 2000)
• Not yet proofed ….
• Difficulties creating terrestrial biomass
– Non-intuitive results (Alaskan systems move in)
– Have to think outside our boundaries …
Directing Actions:
Key elements LOW
of biodiversity
FOOTPRINT –
low
MEDIUM
FOOTPRINT –
medium
FOOTPRINT –
high
Identify alternate management strategies in these boxes -
HIGH
Conservation Opportunities
• Connectivity – multiple scales - some issues at
this very broadest scale
• Strategies different within ecoprovinces
• Climate change –
– Resistance
– Resilience
– Transition
Mitigation Responsibility
Key elements LOW
of biodiversity
Carbon
MEDIUM
HIGH
Win-win
opportunities – ID
now.
Win-win
opportunities – ID
now.
Carbon
Win-win
opportunities – ID
now.
Carbon
• Most strategies are not new – we just need to
decide where to employ
Implications?
Acknowledgements
Funders: Wilburforce Foundation, TIDES Canada Foundation
Project Advisors: Dr. Dave Secord, TIDES Canada Foundation; Dr. Ken Lertzman, Simon Fraser University
• Re-consider objectives
– As squeeze hits – which way will we head?
Science Advisor Team:Andy Mackinnon BC-MFLNRO, Tory Stevens, BC-MOE, Meade Krosby, UofW, Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for
Conservation Research, Sarah Gergel, UBC, Brian Starzomski, U.Vic., Eric LoFroth, MoE, Thomas Sisk, U of Arizona, Nicholas Coops, UBC, Sally
Aitken, UBC, Meg Krawchuk, SFU, Jim Pojar
Data Providers and Advisors (many thanks!) :
BC Ministry of Environment
• Will we prioritise mitigation opportunities?
– Currently don’t even have data to fully inform
• Social and environmental chaos?
– Opportunities to make long-term decisions that
prioritise both.
BC Ministry of Environment and Ducks Unlimited
BC Ministry of Forest, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
BC Ministry of Energy and Mines
Natural Resources Canada
NatureTrust BC
Werner Kurz, CFS
Terry Lewis
Bird Studies Canada and Nature Canada 2004-2010 IBA Database. Port Rowan ON
Grasslands Council of British Columbia
• Timeframe?
Dave Roberts, University of Alberta (modified to BC by Greg Utzig and Rachel Holt)
– Now, or never?
FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISS-CAS/JRC, 2009. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.1)
Ruesch, Aaron, and Holly K. Gibbs. 2008. New IPCC Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map For the Year 2000 (Terrestrial Carbon Stocks)
Thank You
Contact Info:
Rachel Holt - [email protected]
Gregory Kehm - [email protected]